Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is 5.4%, consistent with the previous value, while nominal GDP growth is 4.6%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth for Q1 is 4.2%, up from 2.6% in the previous quarter[3] - Retail sales growth in March is 5.9%, an increase from 4.0% in February, with cumulative growth for Q1 at 4.6%[4] Group 2: Policy Effects and Consumer Behavior - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted durable goods sales, with March growth at 12.8%, up from 3.4%[11] - Consumer spending inclination in Q1 is 63.1%, slightly down from 63.3% in the same period last year[20] - Rural migrant workers' average monthly income increased by 3.3%, lower than the urban disposable income growth of 4.9%[27] Group 3: Investment and Real Estate - Equipment investment grew by 19% in Q1, contributing 64.6% to total investment growth[11] - Real estate investment decreased by 9.9% in Q1, with a significant inventory of unsold properties remaining[13] - The housing price index in first-tier cities has stabilized, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from -10.7% to -4.1%[11]

Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4% year-on-year, unchanged from Q4 2024, while the current price GDP growth rate slightly decreased to 4.59% from 4.62%[14] - The CPI average fell to -0.10% in March 2025, while the PPI average rose to -2.33%[14] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Q1 2025 increased to 5.27%, compared to 5.03% in Q4 2024[17] - Per capita disposable income grew by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 5.1% in 2024[17] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% in 2024[24] - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in categories such as home appliances (35.1%) and furniture (29.5%) compared to previous months[27][28] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the first three months of 2025 rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 11.5%[5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.9%, accounting for 19.3% of total fixed asset investment[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in Q1 2025 grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with high-tech industries increasing by 9.7%[48] - In March 2025, the industrial added value rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing strong growth[48] Investment Recommendations - The high growth rates in industrial output, particularly in high-tech sectors, alongside robust infrastructure and manufacturing investments, are seen as foundational strengths for the Chinese economy[54]

联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 对于 3 月及一季度经济数据，我们重点讨论政策效果以及应对外需不确定性可能的加码方向。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 1 、内需中回暖的几个方向来看，政策效果略超预期。 一是社零， 3 月增速上行至 5.9% ，比较 3 月与 2 月的社零结构，回升主要来自限额以上的耐用品，从 2 月的 3.4% 回升至 12.8% 。二是固投， 1 季度累计 增速为 4.2% ，其中受"两重"以及设备更新影响较大的设备工器具购置投资同比增长 19% ，对全部投资增 长贡献率是 64.6% 。三是地产，一线城市房价自去年 9 月以来，已经有 5 个月二手住宅房价上涨，同比降 幅大幅收窄。 2 、考虑到 1 季度外需的不确定性尚未体现出来，后续对冲外需影响，或需内需进一步加力。 目前内需中 有待政策加码的或有3个方向 ：农民工收入增速偏低，消费端体现的限额以下社零增速偏弱，居民消费倾向 偏弱。财政支出增速 1-2 月尚低于 GDP 增速，支出增速有待进一步提升。地产已竣工待出售库存偏高，或 需进一步通过城中村 ...

一是结构上产需同步向好。 一季度，外需增速高于生产和内需。"抢出口"效应下以人民币计价的出口同比增 速达6.9%。内需提振政策效果延续，社零和投资分别增长4.6%、4.2%。其中，基建（11.5%）和制造业投资 （9.1%）保持高增，房地产投资（-9.9%）拖累减弱。生产端工业增加值增长6.5%，增速为2022年以来的次高 值。值得注意的是，供给强于需求的格局仍在继续，一季度产能利用率（74.1%）和产销率（94.6%）均略超 季节性回落。 图1：3月内外需求增速均有提升 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 图2：消费提振，投资分化 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 二是节奏上前稳后高。 3月多数经济数据增速较1-2月改善。生产加快修复，3月规模以上工业增加值同比增速 上行1.8pct至7.7%。需求端以基建投资好转最为显著，3月增速大幅提升2.6pct至12.6%。社零增速表现亮眼，3 月增速提升1.9cpt至5.9%，达到2020年以来的最高值【注释1】。制造业投资增速微升，房地产投资增速微 降。 图3：房地产销售降幅略有收窄，投资降幅再度扩张 一、总览：供需两旺 一季度我国经济开局良好，实际GDP同比 ...

2025年一季度，全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1%，比上年同期上升0.5个百分点。 分三大门类看，2025年一季度，采矿业产能利用率为74.6%，比上年同期下降0.4个百分点；制造业产能利用率为74.1%，上升0.3个百分点；电力、热力、燃 气及水生产和供应业产能利用率为73.6%，上升2.4个百分点。 分主要行业看，2025年一季度，煤炭开采和洗选业产能利用率为71.9%，食品制造业为69.3%，纺织业为77.8%，化学原料和化学制品制造业为73.5%，非金 属矿物制品业为60.9%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业为79.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业为77.5%，通用设备制造业为78.1%，专用设备制造业为75.6%，汽 车制造业为71.9%，电气机械和器材制造业为71.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为74.7%。 | 2025年一季度规模以上工业产能利用率 | | --- | 产能利用率：是指实际产出与生产能力（均以价值量计量）的比率。 企业的实际产出是指企业报告期内的工业总产值；企业的生产能力是指报告期内，在劳动力、原材料、燃料、运输等保证供给的情况下，生产设备（机械） 保持正常运行，企业可实 ...

Group 1 - The company, Asia Pacific Resources, announced the acquisition of 5.882 million shares of Bellevue Gold, representing approximately 0.40% of the expanded issued share capital after the placement, for about 5 million AUD at a price of approximately 0.85 AUD per share [1] - The company also acquired an additional 2 million shares of Bellevue Gold through on-market trading for a net amount of approximately 1.791 million AUD, at a price of about 0.90 AUD per share [1] - Prior to these transactions, the company had purchased a total of 12.5 million shares of Bellevue Gold over the past 12 months for a net amount of approximately 14.221 million AUD, at an average price of about 1.14 AUD per share [1] Group 2 - Bellevue Gold operates the high-grade Bellevue Gold Mine in Western Australia, with gold reserves of 1.5 million ounces and a grade of 5.0 grams per tonne [2] - The company has revised its production guidance for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, down from 150,000 to 165,000 ounces to a new range of 129,000 to 134,000 ounces, while also increasing its ongoing cost guidance from 1,900 to 2,100 AUD per ounce to 2,425 to 2,525 AUD per ounce [2] - Bellevue Gold aims to achieve an annual production target of 190,000 ounces of gold by the fiscal year ending June 30, 2027 [2] Group 3 - Despite short-term operational challenges, Bellevue Gold is taking decisive actions to review and optimize its mining plans and is closing recent forward gold sales contracts [3] - The company raised 156.5 million AUD through a placement to fund the settlement of recent hedge contracts, execute revised mining plans, and strengthen its balance sheet [3] - The company remains optimistic about the gold outlook due to rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic uncertainty, which have driven demand for safe-haven assets, reinforcing its confidence in Bellevue Gold's quality assets [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The GDP of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region reached 20,534.08 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 6.1% compared to the previous year [8] - The primary industry contributed 2,571.98 billion yuan with a growth of 6.4%, the secondary industry contributed 8,135.87 billion yuan with a growth of 9.1%, and the tertiary industry contributed 9,826.23 billion yuan with a growth of 4.1% [8] - The per capita GDP was 78,660 yuan, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year [8] - The total population of Xinjiang was 26.228 million, with an urbanization rate of 60.36%, up by 1.12 percentage points from the previous year [14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,926.45 billion yuan, growing by 2.0% year-on-year [47] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Xinjiang's GDP growth was stable, with contributions from all three sectors: primary (12.5%), secondary (39.6%), and tertiary (47.9%) [8] - The region's economic performance reflects a focus on high-quality development and structural reforms [7] Agriculture - The total grain planting area was 2,960.0 thousand hectares, with a total grain output of 23.302 million tons, an increase of 10.0% [25][26] - Cotton production reached 5.686 million tons, up by 11.2% [28] Industry and Construction - The total industrial output value was 6,785.49 billion yuan, with a growth of 9.5% [33] - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 7.6%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 11.3% [33][35] Services - The wholesale and retail sector's output value was 970.68 billion yuan, growing by 1.6% [42] - The transportation and warehousing sector increased by 7.7%, indicating a robust logistics network [42] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 6.9%, with significant increases in infrastructure investment (15.7%) and private investment (24.3%) [46] Trade and Foreign Economic Relations - The total import and export volume reached 61.165 billion USD, a growth of 20.7% year-on-year [49] Fiscal and Financial Overview - The general public budget revenue was 2,408.92 billion yuan, increasing by 10.5% [50] - The total profit of industrial enterprises was 1,413.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% [41] Resident Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income was 30,899 yuan, an increase of 6.7% [54] - The Engel coefficient for households was 31.5%, indicating a stable consumption pattern [54]

精打细算的企业家们，正在为全球经济碎片化带来的一系列麻烦寻找出路。 全球著名矿业公司英美资源集团首席执行官万德昆近日在中国发展高层论坛上讲述了一个"铜的全球之 旅"的故事：铜从南美洲的铜矿中开采出来，在中国被制成铜丝，再销往世界各地，最终用在消费者驾 驶的汽车或电子产品之中。 而如今，这条全球供应链受到了冲击。"给我们带来了很多额外的成本支出。"万德昆说，各种各样的障 碍导致了材料通胀、价格上涨。采矿业只是通向世界各地消费者的长长链条的一个起点。 在当今世界经济碎片化加剧、不稳定不确定性上升的背景下，更需要国家开放市场、企业共享资源，携 手抵御风险挑战、实现共同繁荣。这成为很多国际工商界人士的一个共识。宝马集团董事长齐普策说， 全球贸易尽管遭遇了逆流，但新的合作机遇亦如雨后春笋般不断涌现。他分享了宝马扎根中国30多年、 双方持续合作实现互利共赢的经验，认为唯有合作才能让全球供应链化身"世界共赢链"。 全球供应链处在一个转折点 经济全球化的核心在于，在全球市场最高效率地配置各种生产要素。TCL创始人、董事长李东生见证了 过去20多年，以WTO规则为基础的全球投资贸易自由化加快了全球经济的发展。他说："全球产业链 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' profits showed a slight decline in January-February, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, compared to a decline of 3.3% for the entire previous year [1][18]. Summary by Sections Industrial Profit Data - In January-February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the inventory increased by 4.2% compared to the previous year [1][18]. - The profit margin for January-February was 4.53%, slightly lower than the 4.67% in the same period last year [19]. Industry Performance - The mining industry experienced a significant decline with a growth rate of -25.2%, while manufacturing saw a recovery with a growth rate of 4.8% [2][23]. - Notable growth in manufacturing sectors included agricultural and sideline food processing (37.8%), non-ferrous metal processing (20.5%), and transportation equipment (88.8%) [2][23]. Revenue Analysis - The revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February, with the midstream sector showing strong performance at 8.1% growth [3][7]. - The upstream manufacturing sector's revenue growth was only 0.73%, while downstream manufacturing grew by 1.67% [3][7]. Factors Influencing Performance - Three main factors contributed to the revenue growth: strong export performance, new policies promoting equipment updates, and advancements in "hard technology" [4][10]. - The export delivery value of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 7.23% in January-February, with significant contributions from sectors like railways and aerospace [4][10]. Future Outlook - The main uncertainty for the midstream equipment manufacturing sector comes from export dependency, which is at 21.1% for 2024 [15]. - Despite the uncertainties, the expected revenue growth for the equipment manufacturing sector is anticipated to be better than last year due to substantial domestic policy support and increased capital expenditure in "hard technology" [15].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' revenue and profit growth rates have both declined in the first two months of 2025, indicating a deterioration in profitability and operational pressure on companies [1][7][14]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In January-February 2025, the revenue of industrial enterprises grew by 2.8%, a decrease from the previous month [1][9]. - Profit growth recorded a decline of -0.3%, dropping over 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a two-year average growth rate also showing a downturn [1][7]. Production and Sales Performance - The production and sales rate of industrial enterprises reached a ten-year low for the same period, influenced by the early Spring Festival holiday [3][14]. - The asset-liability ratio of enterprises hit a ten-year high, indicating increased operational pressure [3][14]. Inventory Trends - The nominal inventory growth rate increased to 4.2%, while the actual inventory growth rate rose to 6.5%, reflecting a recovery in inventory levels [5][14]. - Certain midstream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries are still in the process of restocking, while industries like paper, chemicals, and synthetic fibers are actively reducing inventory [5][8]. Industry-Specific Insights - The consumer goods sector, particularly in automotive and home appliances, showed significant improvement, driven by government policies such as vehicle replacement subsidies [8][9]. - The mining industry experienced a substantial decline in profit growth, while the raw materials sector continued to recover, and consumer goods industries saw notable profit increases [7][8]. Cost and Profit Margin Analysis - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises was 85.11 yuan, with expenses at 8.56 yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [9]. - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to 4.53%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors [9].