| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2011 ] 1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 735 | 770 | -35 | -4.55% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 785 | 820 | -35 | -4.27% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8050 | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | ‍රි35 | 970 | -35 | -3.61% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2506-2507 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies of various precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical situations. Overall, different metals have different outlooks, with some being cautiously bullish and others being neutral or cautiously bearish [36][38][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1内外价差结构及比价 - **内盘价差结构**: Presented the SHFE price difference structures of gold, silver, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, stainless steel, and nickel from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][7] - **外盘价差结构**: Showed the price difference structures of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and the premiums of Comex gold, silver, and copper over London and LME counterparts, covering May 19 - May 23, 2025 [9][12] - **比价**: Included various ratios such as domestic and international copper, lead, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold, and silver ratios, as well as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel ratios excluding exchange rates from 2021 - 2025 [19][23][26] 3.2各品种观点 - **贵金属**: In the week of May 23, factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical tensions influenced the market. Gold and silver are cautiously bullish, with recommended buying ranges of 770 - 775 yuan/gram for gold and 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [36] - **铜**: With tight mine supply and low TC prices, copper is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [38] - **铅**: Currently in the consumption off - season with weak demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the range of 16,920 - 16,950 yuan/ton [39] - **铝**: The supply is stable with a slight increase, while consumption is showing a downward trend. The sustainability of consumption is in question, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [41] - **氧化铝**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price of bauxite has support. The market is expected to remain in a state of supply surplus [42] - **锌**: The supply of zinc ore is stable, and the processing fees are expected to rise. Consumption is relatively strong, but there are risks of marginal decline. The market is neutral [44][45][46] - **镍**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and consumption is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [48] - **不锈钢**: Supply is abundant, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [50] - **硅**: The supply may decrease slightly, and demand is weak. If the southwest silicon furnaces operate normally, inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [52][53] - **多晶硅**: Consumption is showing signs of weakness, and supply is expected to jointly reduce production but is difficult to achieve in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate widely [55][56] - **锂**: Supply may decrease, and consumption is stable. The inventory has increased slightly. The price has fallen to the 60,000 - yuan mark, and it is recommended to sell on rallies if there is a rebound [58] 3.3相关数据跟踪 - **贵金属 data**: Tracked U.S. and European bond yields, inflation expectations, TIPS yields, gold and silver ETF holdings, and CFTC positions from 2021 - 2025 [61][62][65] - **铜 data**: Tracked TC prices, refined - scrap spreads, import profits and losses, CFTC positions, domestic and LME inventories, and downstream sector indices from 2021 - 2025 [74][75][78] - **铝 data**: Tracked seasonal social inventories, LME inventories, cost - profit, and import profits and losses from 2021 - 2025 [80][84][88] - **氧化铝 data**: Tracked prices, total inventories, import profits and losses, and production costs and profits from 2022 - 2025 [95][96][99] - **锌 data**: Tracked price differences, inventories, processing fees, production profits, and import profits and losses from 2020 - 2025 [103][109][113] - **镍 and stainless steel data**: Tracked prices, inventories, premiums, import profits and losses, and profit margins from 2017 - 2025 [124][125][132] - **工业硅 data**: Tracked prices, production costs, and social inventories from 2022 - 2024 [147][148][152] - **多晶硅 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and supply - demand balances from 2023 - 2025 [155][156] - **碳酸锂 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and production from 2021 - 2025 [158][159][161]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅弱势不改，多晶硅即将进入首次交割 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，部分小厂计划进一步减产，但西南进入平水 期后整体开炉趋势增加，新疆大厂亦在复工复产，供给端压力 继续增加。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅较多厂已处于满 负荷生产状态，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需 采购。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9300-9500 元/吨。后续工业硅现货价格缺乏反弹动力。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 多晶硅现货价格小跌，市场消息混杂，小作文传言诸多低价成 交订单，建议对其为致密料/混包料、新货/老库存、大客户折 前价格/折后价格进行辨析。5 月多晶硅排产约 9.3 万吨，6 月 初步排产 9.1 万吨。但周五盘后市场传言某二三线硅料厂二期 产能有复产计划，根据后续进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82%, mainly due to cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. The basis weakened, and it is expected that price will be supported after inventory decline. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news, but its fundamentals remain poor [5]. - Looking ahead, for industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts still exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within the range of 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82% this week, with cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of warehouse receipts exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, industrial silicon futures and spot prices fell, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 8,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 735 yuan/ton. The operating rate remained stable, and production increased slightly but was still at a low level. As of May 23, 2025, the overall operating rate was 17.81%, and production was 72,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week [11][13][22]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, polysilicon futures prices fell significantly, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 33.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 3,510 yuan/g [15][19]. 3. Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Raw Materials**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices fell, and the market price has fallen below the production cost of most manufacturers. Southwest regions have no intention to resume production due to losses [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 65,298 lots, a decrease of 1,233 lots from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [32]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rate continued to decline, and prices were low. As of May 23, 2025, weekly production was 39,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 59.31%, a decrease of 0.26%. Spot costs and profits remained flat, and production cuts to support prices had initial results [35][40][46]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices remained flat, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, making it difficult to drive industrial silicon demand. As of May 23, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 15,700 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons [48][53]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer prices fell, battery cell prices remained low and flat. After the end of the rush - installation period, polysilicon demand was dragged down. As of May 23, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.12 yuan/piece, unchanged from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.27 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [55][60]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon production remained flat, and industrial silicon prices fell, resulting in a weakening of production costs. In April 2025, the polysilicon production volume was 98,800 tons [62][67].

| *业期现日报 | F미 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纪元菲 | | | | | Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 市科 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8650 | 8700 | -50 | -0.57% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 770 | 832 | -65 | -7.78% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | a200 | aeoo | -100 | -1.04% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | | 820 | વેડી | -115 | -12.30% | | | 新疆99硅 | | 8050 | 8100 | -20 | -0.62% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 970 | 1035 | -65 | -6.28% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 合约 | | 5月22日 | 5月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the cost support is weakening, the supply side has复产 expectations, the consumption side is average, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - For polysilicon, the consumption side shows signs of weakening, the supply side has news of joint production cuts but it is difficult to achieve in the short term, and there is still some game in the market [8][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating at a low level. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,840 yuan/ton and closed at 7,880 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.19)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 183,690 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 23, 2025, was 65,298 lots, a change of -355 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - The spot price of industrial silicon has declined. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,500 - 8,800 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon is 9,300 - 9,700 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton. Since May, the price of electrode raw materials has been declining, with a decrease of about 700 - 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. Consumption Side - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC is 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. The average price this week remained stable compared to last week. The domestic DMC market's trading center has moved up slightly, and the downstream enterprises'开工 rate has increased. The monomer enterprises' DMC shipments have improved compared to last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures rebounded, opening at 35,600 yuan/ton and closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.14% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 77,294 (73,488 the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 126,262 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon weekly output was 21,500.00 tons, a change of 0.40% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.30GW, a change of 7.10% month - on - month [5][12][13]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term futures price is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation, mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [9][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Alumina**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - **Copper**: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - **Zinc**: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Lead**: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - **Nickel**: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - **Tin**: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - **Polysilicon**: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - **Lead**: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - **Nickel**: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - **Tin**: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - **Polysilicon**: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - **Lead**: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - **Nickel**: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - **Tin**: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - **Polysilicon**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the flood season approaches in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, the electricity price cost advantage emerges, stimulating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises to accelerate [2]. - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the fields of organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy. The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a downward trend, making it difficult to strongly drive the market [2]. - The large number of warehouse receipts brings huge delivery pressure to the market, severely suppressing price increases. Overall, supply is low, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 183,690 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,112 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 30,513 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,233 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 65,298 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 355 lots [2]. - The price difference between the July - August contracts is - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract is 770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 11,680 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,930 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, and the weekly average spot price is 4.3 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 691.08 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - A notice was issued for the preferred investment and development entities of the second and third batches of new energy projects in Guangnan County, Yunnan Province in 2024. The second batch includes 4 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects with a total installed capacity of 310,000 kilowatts [2]. - The state is increasing investment to support long - term data infrastructure construction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is continuously hitting new lows, with an expected increase in supply, no bright spots on the consumption side, and significant inventory and warehouse receipt pressure. The price is approaching historical lows, and most enterprises face high cost pressure. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the spot price is weak, recent trading volume is low, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. The acceleration of warehouse receipt registration requires attention to its impact on the market [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to reach new lows. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,980 yuan/ton and closed at 7,865 yuan/ton, a change of - 140 yuan/ton (-1.75%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 192,802 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 21 was 65,653 lots, a decrease of 596 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (-100) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,800 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region continued to decline, while the silicon price in Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [2]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed mixed trends. With the arrival of the recent trading window period, the downstream demand for raw rubber increased rapidly, and the trading was good. However, due to the weak demand for room - temperature rubber, the overall trading of D4 was average [2]. - **Strategy** - Given the current situation, attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 35,630 yuan/ton and closing at 35,860 yuan/ton, a 0.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 73,488 (70,536 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 157,225 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The re - feeding material was quoted at 32.00 - 35.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg; dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month increase of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.50%) [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. For example, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the efficient PERC182 battery cell was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W [5][7]. - The registration of warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, with 310 new lots added on that day, and the total warehouse receipts reached 450 lots [7]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging when the price is high. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][7].