Macro Policy - The macro policy emphasizes the release of existing policy effects, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The meeting did not reiterate the previous mention of "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" from April[1] - The Ministry of Finance has reported six cases of hidden debt accountability, stressing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task[1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is tightening regarding debt management, with a focus on actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts[2] - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized strict accountability for those responsible for hidden debts, reinforcing the crackdown on illegal activities related to new hidden debts[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has not mentioned "timely interest rate cuts" but emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and promoting a decline in overall financing costs[3] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting service consumption and implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, and healthcare sectors[4] - Investment strategies include high-quality promotion of "two重" construction and the establishment of new policy financial tools to enhance investment returns[4] Market Competition - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, with a focus on regulating chaotic competition among enterprises[5] - Specific measures include conducting cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition issues[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillatory [10] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillatory [12] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bearish [91] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with short - term prices expected to oscillate due to factors such as factory resumption and demand changes in downstream industries [10]. - Polysilicon production increases due to the resumption of large - scale southwest production capacity, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules increase slightly. Short - term prices may oscillate, and future capacity clearance is expected to accelerate [12]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has ebbed, and supply - side disturbances have been resolved. With limited demand growth and inventory transfer rather than consumption by end - users, short - term prices are expected to be weak [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index is at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, up 1.04% weekly, and down 9.03% annually. Exchange rates, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel all show different price changes [7]. - **New Energy Metals**: Industrial silicon is at 8,500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% daily, 12.60% weekly, and 22.62% annually. Lithium carbonate is at 68,920 yuan/ton, up 0.94% daily, down 14.41% weekly, and down 10.61% annually [7]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 78,600 tons, up 4.59% week - on - week. Main production areas like Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia all show different degrees of production increases [10]. - **Demand**: In the polysilicon sector, weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, with inventory accumulation. In the organic silicon sector, DMC weekly production is 47,800 tons, up 4.82% week - on - week [10]. - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 696,600 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week, and industry inventory is 444,000 tons, up 0.25% week - on - week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,109 yuan, down 0.14% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 96 yuan, down 221 yuan/ton week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Yunnan. 7 - month production is 106,300 tons, up 5.10% month - on - month, and 8 - month production schedule is 106,800 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month [12]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 11.84GW, up 4.78% week - on - week, with inventory reduction [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 275,800 tons, up 0.15% week - on - week [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,333 yuan, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 3,417 yuan, up 379 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 17,300 tons, down 7.31% week - on - week. Different production methods (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake) show different production trends [91]. - **Imports**: In June, lithium carbonate imports were 17,000 tons, down 16.31% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 427,600 tons, down 17.25% month - on - month [91]. - **Demand**: In the lithium iron phosphate system, material weekly production is 69,200 tons, down 0.87% week - on - week. In the ternary system, material weekly production is 16,100 tons, up 1.07% week - on - week [91]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 141,700 tons, down 1.01% week - on - week. Warehouse receipt inventory is 6,600 tons, down 43.32% week - on - week [91]. - **Cost and Profit**: For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 76,215 yuan/ton, up 2.96% week - on - week, and the production profit is - 7,136 yuan/ton, down 1,088 yuan/ton week - on - week [91].

Market Overview - On August 1, the market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices slightly declining, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.60 trillion CNY, a decrease of 337.7 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a net outflow of 2.381 billion CNY, while the Shenzhen Composite Index had a net inflow of 2.675 billion CNY[4] Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest net inflows were photovoltaic equipment, traditional Chinese medicine, and logistics, while the sectors with the highest net outflows included semiconductors, components, and ground weaponry[4] - The pharmaceutical and education sectors showed resistance but did not exhibit complete trends, indicating potential areas for continued observation[1] Economic Policy Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that the 800 billion CNY list of "two heavy" construction projects has been fully allocated, and 735 billion CNY of central budget investment has been largely distributed[5] - The NDRC plans to implement a "AI+" initiative to enhance the application of artificial intelligence, indicating a focus on technological advancement[5] Long-term Investment Directions - Long-term investment opportunities are expected to be centered around industries supported by national policies, particularly in new energy and computing power sectors[1] - The NDRC is also working on establishing a list of national-level zero-carbon parks, which may present future investment opportunities[5] Fund Dynamics - The second batch of floating fee funds is set to launch, with three products scheduled for issuance on August 4, including a medical innovation fund with a fundraising cap of 3 billion CNY[12] - The number of private equity securities investment funds from insurance companies has increased to six, indicating a growing trend of long-term capital inflow into the market[13]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued a notice regarding the implementation of special energy-saving inspections for the polysilicon industry in 2025, targeting 41 companies across various regions [1][2]. Group 1: Energy-Saving Inspection Notification - The MIIT has released a task list for energy-saving inspections in the polysilicon industry, which is part of a broader initiative to enhance industrial energy efficiency [2]. - The inspections are to be completed by September 30, 2025, with results to be reported back to the MIIT [2]. - The notification emphasizes the need to reduce the administrative burden on enterprises during the inspection process [2]. Group 2: List of Targeted Companies - The task list includes companies from various provinces, such as Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, Yunnan, Qinghai, and Xinjiang [3][4][5]. - Notable companies listed for inspection include: - Sichuan Yongxiang New Energy Co., Ltd. (Inner Mongolia branch) - Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Industry Technology Development Co., Ltd. - Yunnan Tongwei High Purity Crystalline Silicon Co., Ltd. [3][4][5]. - The list comprises a total of 41 companies, indicating a significant focus on the polysilicon sector for energy efficiency improvements [3][4][5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Prices**: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].

Domestic Financial Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax [4] - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" has officially come into effect, aiming to improve the regulation of virtual asset activities, maintain financial stability, and promote innovation [4] - The central bank is developing the offshore RMB market to promote a stable and comprehensive liquidity supply channel while continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4] Industry Updates - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the 2025 annual special energy-saving inspection task list for the polysilicon industry, with related stocks including Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Daqo New Energy [5] - The progress of autonomous driving in Guangzhou is accelerating, actively cultivating component enterprises, with related stocks including Wanji Technology and Desay SV [5] - A treatment plan for Chikungunya fever has been released, leading to a significant increase in sales of mosquito repellent products, with related stocks including Kangzhi Pharmaceutical and Runben Co., Ltd. [5] Company Focus - Kehua Data has launched a full lifecycle service for liquid-cooled data centers, with liquid-cooled containers already exported overseas [6] - New Aluminum Era plans to invest no less than 500 million yuan to build a project with an annual production capacity of 800,000 lightweight high-strength auto parts [6] - Hongxin Electronics' subsidiary is co-building a green intelligent digital infrastructure project with the Qingyang government, with a total investment expected to be 12.8 billion yuan [6] - Hikvision reported a revenue of 41.818 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 1.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.657 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71% [6] Market Review and Outlook - On August 1, the market opened lower but experienced a small rebound, followed by a day of continued downward fluctuation, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 33.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - Sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, education, photovoltaic, pharmaceuticals, logistics, and software development saw significant gains, while sectors like shipping, insurance, and semiconductors experienced varying degrees of pullback [7] - Despite the index decline, the number of rising stocks increased, with only 9 stocks hitting the limit down, indicating no signs of risk expansion [7] - The overall A-share market is showing signs of capital switching between high and low, with important support zones below the index, suggesting a potential balance between bulls and bears [7] - Structural market conditions are expected to remain a key feature, with recommendations to avoid overvalued dividend sectors and focus on low-position stocks benefiting from "anti-involution" policy-driven rebound opportunities [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the disk margin follows macro - sentiment changes [4]. - For stainless steel, as the macro influence fades and it returns to the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are some positive factors, high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices [5]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is affected by upstream resumption expectations, and the price shows a weak trend [27]. - For polysilicon, there may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The market is policy - driven, and prices may return to the fundamentals in the short term [27]. - For lithium carbonate, the "sports - style anti - involution" cools down, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of mineral license approvals in Jiangxi. The price has dropped significantly, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The influence of macro - sentiment on the fundamentals is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. After the contradiction in the ore end fades, the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range shock judgment. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the low - cost supply increment in the long - term drags down the disk. Although the inventory of the ferronickel link has decreased, the boost to nickel prices is limited [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro influence fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. In August, the production schedule has increased slightly, but the inventory is still high, and the high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices. However, the weak upstream profit provides some cost support [5]. 3.1.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year [6][7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The national stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.66% week - on - week. The raw material nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but was still 56% higher year - on - year [5][8]. 3.1.3 Market News - There are multiple events such as Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.2.1 Price Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market showed a weak shock, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week), and the Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon price was 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market rose first and then fell. The spot market had weak transactions, and the Friday closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton [27]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw a marginal increase in weekly production. Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. The overall industry inventory decreased again. The demand side had stable short - term demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term weekly production continued to increase. The upstream inventory decreased, and there was speculative replenishment demand from the downstream. The demand side saw a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission was not smooth [29][31]. 3.2.3后市 Views - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to go short on rallies. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: There may be a short - term correction. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. It is a policy - driven market, and it is recommended to be cautious when holding positions [32][33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Price Trends - The futures contract prices of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 69,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9,920 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 1,550 yuan/ton to 71,350 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: The price of lithium concentrate decreased from 810 US dollars/ton to 755 US dollars/ton, and the hedging profit of purchased - ore decreased significantly. The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, a decrease of 7.31% [62]. - **Demand**: Due to the significant strengthening of the basis and end - of - month purchases, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises increased significantly. The sales volume of new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.28% week - on - week and year - on - year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. The upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,757 tons to 11,996 tons [63]. 3.3.3后市 Views - It is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The expected operating range of the futures main - contract price is 55,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage or hedging. The unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [64][65][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility [6] - Polysilicon: Volatility [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment has declined, but polysilicon still has policy support. The industrial silicon market may see marginal improvement, and it's difficult to reach previous low prices. The polysilicon spot price increase provides a lower limit for the futures market, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1,225 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of SMM's East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2509 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,825 yuan/ton to 49,200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock increased by 300 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton [10] 2. "Anti-involution" Sentiment Declines, Polysilicon Still Has Policy Support - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main industrial silicon futures contract dropped significantly this week. The weekly output was 78,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.59%. The social inventory increased by 5,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Xinjiang's large factories have unstable operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. Sichuan and Yunnan's silicon factories are also expected to have a small increase. The 7 - month industrial silicon balance sheet is estimated to have a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons, and it may still de - stock in August [12] - **Organosilicon**: The price of organosilicon fluctuated this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 72.26%, the weekly output was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.82%, and the inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon futures contract first rose and then fell this week. The average spot transaction price increased. The main prices of silicon materials this week were 42 - 47 yuan/kg for dense materials, 45 - 50 yuan/kg for dense reclaimed materials, and 43 - 46 yuan/kg for granular silicon. As of July 31, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month. The production in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [14] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.20/1.35/1.55 yuan/piece, with an average increase of 0.1 yuan/piece. The price is expected to increase slightly [15] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt, with increases of 0.02/0.015/0.015 yuan/watt respectively. The price should continue to rise, but the acceptance of the component end needs to be considered [16] - **Components**: The price of components fluctuated this week. The price of centralized components was stable, and the price of distributed components increased but with low trading volume. The component production in August is not expected to decrease significantly. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [17] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" trading declined rapidly, and the industrial silicon futures price fell. In the short term, the decline sentiment has not been fully released, but the fundamentals have improved marginally. There may be a second "anti - involution" trading. Short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and then consider long positions after the macro - sentiment stabilizes. The risk lies in the resumption of production of large factories [19] - **Polysilicon**: The increase in the average spot transaction price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The overall strategy is to be bullish on dips, and one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [20] 4. Hot News Sorting - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added three polysilicon futures designated quality - inspection institutions on August 1. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures on August 1 [21] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory of industrial silicon in China [22] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on polysilicon spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on silicon wafer spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on battery cell spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [45] - **Components**: Covers data on component spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [53]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has experienced a significant decline, with sectors such as coal and polysilicon seeing an approximate 5% drop, and leading steel companies falling over 10% [2] - The technology sector, including chips and AI concepts, also faced minor pullbacks, while banking stocks rose as a safe haven [2] - Recent U.S. employment data showed a disappointing increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, leading to a major revision of previous months' data [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government has made changes in response to the employment data, including the removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has caused market reactions [3] - The current geopolitical climate may lead to adjustments in U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs on China, which could see a 90-day exemption extended [3]