Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to factors such as the progress of the US fiscal expansion bill, the weakening of the US dollar, and the long - term reshaping of the global order [1][3]. - Silver will have range - bound fluctuations as its logical drivers remain relatively stable, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. Although there is a risk of a high - level pullback, the long - term outlook for copper is positive [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, there is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead's rebound is under pressure due to an expected increase in supply in July and unoptimistic downstream battery consumption [1]. - Tin's rebound is also under pressure as the supply from Myanmar's tin mines has not recovered and the consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is in a short - term rebound trend. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [1][12]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream stainless - steel industry has inventory accumulation pressure [1][14]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure. There are rumors of large - scale factory restarts, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and the market has significant differences in downstream production schedules [1][15]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold closed at 776.1, up 1.11% from the previous value, and COMEX gold closed at 3349, up 1.01%. SHFE silver closed at 8810, up 0.55%, and COMEX silver closed at 36, down 0.30%. The Shanghai gold - to - silver ratio was 88.09, up 0.56% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US fiscal expansion bill has made progress. The US Senate passed the "Great Beauty" bill on July 1st, including a $4.5 - trillion tax cut and a $1.2 - trillion spending cut. Other countries have made compromises in trade negotiations. The US dollar has continued to weaken significantly, with the Bloomberg dollar index falling for six consecutive months in June [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long - term investment in gold when the price is around 760. Silver will have range - bound fluctuations, with strong support at 8560 [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE copper was 80390, up 0.46% from the previous day. The LME copper price was 9934, up 0.66%, and the COMEX copper price was 509.9, down 0.24% [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing TC of copper concentrates has dropped to - 43.57 dollars/ton. During the consumption off - season, the demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors has offset the lack of demand from traditional sectors such as construction [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper, and take partial profits when the price is high. Be vigilant about the risk of a high - level pullback. In the short term, focus on the range of [78500, 81000] for SHFE copper and [9700, 9900] dollars/ton for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc was 22175, down 0.36% from the previous day. The LME zinc price was 2713.5, down 1.00% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc mines is expected to be more abundant. Although there was a strike at a large zinc smelter in Peru, the overall supply of zinc mines is at a high level, and the TC has continued to rebound. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and the downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, short on rallies. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2650, 2750] dollars/ton for LME zinc [9][10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2602 dollars/ton, up 0.17%, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 20635 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The price of alumina was under pressure and declined [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has improved. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is showing signs of accumulation. For alumina, the import of overseas bauxite remains at a high level, and the domestic production capacity has rebounded [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 15190 dollars/ton, up 0.43%, and the closing price of SHFE nickel was 120720 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The price of stainless steel also declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel mines has decreased, weakening the cost support. The domestic refined nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel industry is facing inventory accumulation pressure during the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate closed at 62780 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17598 tons, up 1.79%, and the weekly inventory was 136837 tons, up 1.44% [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: There are significant differences in the market's expectations for downstream production schedules. In the long - term, the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the total inventory continues to reach new highs [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies within the range of [61800 - 63300] [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed Chair Powell indicated that stable economic activity allows the Fed to study the impact of tariff hikes on prices and economic growth before resuming rate cuts. If not for concerns about tariffs, the Fed might have continued to gradually cut rates this year. A well - known journalist believes that if the final tariff increase is lower than Trump's April announcement, the Fed's rate - cut strategy may change [8] - For caustic soda, the spot price decline is not over, but the impact of liquid chlorine should be noted. Although the supply pressure is large, due to the rapid decline in liquid chlorine prices, the cost of caustic soda has increased, and the far - month valuation may be repaired, but the continuous rebound space may be limited [10][12] - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the price - cut inflection point is postponed. The 08 contract will fluctuate and consolidate, and it is advisable to short the 10 contract at high prices [13][19] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and silver continues to rise. The prices of gold and silver in various markets showed different changes in the previous trading day, including price increases, changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [20][21] - Trend intensity: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [24] Copper - Copper: The strong spot price supports the price. The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. Macro and industry news include the US manufacturing PMI situation, trade agreement impacts, and China's copper import data [26] - Trend intensity: Copper trend intensity is 1 [28] Zinc - Zinc: The fundamentals are under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of zinc in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. There is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [29][30] - Trend intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [30] Lead - Lead: There is an expectation of a peak season, which supports the price. The relevant data of lead in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [32][33] - Trend intensity: Lead trend intensity is 1 [33] Tin - Tin: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories of tin in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are some macro and industry news [35][36] - Trend intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [37] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity. Stainless steel: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the steel price is repaired but with limited elasticity. The relevant data of nickel and stainless steel in the industrial chain changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about nickel - related production and shutdown in Indonesia [39][40] - Trend intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [42] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate: The spot trading is light, and it runs weakly with fluctuations. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of lithium carbonate in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about lithium - related agreements [43][45] - Trend intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [45] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The upstream supply disturbances increase, and the market sentiment should be noted. Polysilicon: The market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upward space should be noted. The relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the photovoltaic glass industry [46][48] - Trend intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [48] Iron Ore - Iron ore: The expectations fluctuate, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of iron ore in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about industrial enterprise profits [49] - Trend intensity: Iron ore trend intensity is 0 [49] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both fluctuate widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about economic indicators and steel production and inventory [51][52][53] - Trend intensity: Rebar trend intensity is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend intensity is 0 [54] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Affected by the sector sentiment, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices [55][56] - Trend intensity: Ferrosilicon trend intensity is 0, and silicomanganese trend intensity is 0 [57] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal: Affected by the downstream environmental - protection production cuts, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of coke and coking coal in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about coal prices and positions [60][62] - Trend intensity: Coke trend intensity is 0, and coking coal trend intensity is 0 [62] Steam Coal - Steam coal: The daily consumption recovers, and it stabilizes with fluctuations. The trading situation of steam coal in the previous trading day is introduced, and there are news about coal prices and positions [64][66] - Trend intensity: Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [67] Logs - Logs: The main contract switches, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of logs in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the US dollar index [68][70] - Trend intensity: Log trend intensity is - 1 [70] Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Paraxylene: Go long on the positive spread at low prices. PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. MEG: Stop the profit of going long on PTA and short on MEG. The prices, trading volumes, spreads, and other data of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about the polyester market [71][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It offers insights into price trends, fundamental data, and news events affecting each commodity, along with trend strength indicators and trading strategies [2][11][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: With rising expectations of interest rate cuts, the gold price is showing an upward trend. The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. Key data includes price, trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, and inventory levels [2][6][9] - **Silver**: Continuing to rise, the trend strength is 1, suggesting a bullish outlook. Similar to gold, it also provides price, trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, and inventory data [2][6][9] Base Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong spot prices, the copper price is expected to remain stable. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. The report presents data on futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spreads, along with macro and industry news [11][13] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook. It provides data on prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and inventory, as well as relevant news [14][15] - **Lead**: With expectations of a peak season, the lead price is supported. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. The report includes price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and inventory data, along with news [17][18] - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, the tin price is on the rise. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides data on futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spreads, along with macro and industry news [20][21][22] - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It presents data on prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant industry news [24][27] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing, and the steel price is recovering with limited elasticity. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Similar to nickel, it provides relevant data and news [24][27] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading is light, and the price is oscillating weakly. The trend strength is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and inventory data, along with macro and industry news [28][30] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply disruptions from the upstream are increasing, and market sentiment needs to be monitored. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. It presents data on prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, inventory, and relevant news [31][33] - **Polysilicon**: Market news is continuously disturbing, and the upside space needs to be watched. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. Similar to industrial silicon, it provides relevant data and news [31][33] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and the price is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [34] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are oscillating widely. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [36][37][39] - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, they are oscillating weakly. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [41][43] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by downstream environmental protection - related production cuts, they are oscillating weakly. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [45][46][48] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, and relevant news [50][52][53] - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and the price is oscillating widely. The trend strength is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [54][56] - **Paraxylene**: Consider positive spreads on dips. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [57][63] - **PTA**: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Similar to paraxylene, it provides relevant data and news [57][63] - **MEG**: Take profit on the long PTA and short MEG strategy. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides relevant data and news [57][63] - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Both are oscillating. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [30][32][64] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating in a narrow range. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [34] - **LLDPE**: Oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [36] - **PP**: Spot prices are falling, and trading is dull. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [38] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot price cuts are not over, and the impact of liquid chlorine needs to be monitored. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [39] - **Pulp**: Oscillating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [43] - **Methanol and Urea**: Both are oscillating in the short term. The trend strength for both is not provided. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [44][46] - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [48] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [50] - **LPG**: Oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [51] - **PVC**: The trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [54] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The improvement in the fundamentals of the producing areas is limited, and the price is bottom - grinding. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [63] - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation about US soybean weather, and there is a lack of driving force. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [63] - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed flat, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound and oscillate. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [65] - **Soybean No.1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price may oscillate. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [65] - **Corn**: Oscillating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [67] - **Sugar**: Weakly operating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [68] - **Cotton**: Lacking effective driving force, the price is oscillating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [69] - **Egg**: The peak season is approaching, and it is difficult to increase the culling rate. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [71] - **Live Pig**: Anticipating the de - stocking logic in July. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [72] - **Peanut**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase. US economic data and policy decisions influence its short - term rise and fall [14][15]. - Stock Index Futures: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine whether market risk appetite can be further enhanced [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Steel: Steel prices are oscillating. While spot fundamentals are not under significant pressure, there are still medium - and long - term risks in external demand, so caution is advised regarding the height of the steel price rebound [4]. - Copper: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to repeated tariff expectations and increased LME squeeze - out expectations [5]. - Crude Oil: Prices are oscillating strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ weekend meeting [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline; the US June ISM manufacturing PMI is 49; Powell cannot determine if a July rate cut is too early [12][13][14]. - Review: Gold prices rebound due to the weakening of the US dollar index, but short - term upward momentum is insufficient. The decision on a July rate cut depends on the June non - farm payroll report and inflation data [14]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Powell expects tariffs to affect inflation this summer; the US Senate passes Trump's tax reform bill; Trump denies extending the tariff deadline [16][17][19]. - Review: Market risk appetite cools, and the US dollar index remains low in the short term [19]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar remains weak in the short term [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: US June manufacturing activity is slightly better than expected; the number of job vacancies unexpectedly rises; Powell says tariffs will affect prices this summer [21][22][23]. - Review: The US economy shows resilience, and the market continues to wait for non - farm data. There are signs of overheating in market sentiment [23]. - Investment Advice: Be aware of the risk of a market correction [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: The added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing from January to May increases by 11.1% year - on - year; the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes regulating low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [24][25]. - Review: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine market risk appetite [26]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Caixin PMI in June is 50.4; the central bank conducts 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [28][29]. - Review: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Investment Advice: Long positions can be held, and it is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of buying on dips [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The US processed 203.7 million bushels of soybeans in May [31]. - Review: The market is calm. Brazilian exports are expected to decline in June, and domestic downstream transactions are dull [32]. - Investment Advice: Short - term futures prices continue to oscillate. Pay attention to weather in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US relations [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month; Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [34][35]. - Review: The oil market continues to oscillate. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline slightly in June, and Indonesian exports are expected to remain high in June [35]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to production growth in producing areas and restocking in consuming areas. Also, watch the results of the US July 8 hearing [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Only 3 sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have not cleared their inventories; the expected delivery volume of ICE July raw sugar is the lowest since 2014; sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of June decreased by 22% year - on - year [36][37][38]. - Review: Sugar production in central - southern Brazil decreased due to rain, and there are uncertainties in future sugar production [38]. - Investment Advice: The external market is weak, which will drag down the domestic market, but domestic spot prices are firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: Starch sugar prices are stable, with different trends in different varieties [40]. - Review: Starch enterprises are still in the red, and starch production is expected to gradually reduce to reduce inventory. Downstream demand may increase the operating rate of starch sugar [40]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors on the CS - C spread [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The total land acquisition amount of key real - estate enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 33.3% year - on - year; China's heavy - truck sales in June increased by 30% year - on - year [42][43]. - Review: Steel prices are oscillating, with no significant pressure on the spot market, but medium - and long - term external demand risks remain [44]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to use a rebound - hedging strategy for the spot market [45]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The auction of imported corn starts, with a high成交 rate and premium [45]. - Review: The auction reflects a shortage of spot inventory. If the balance sheet is as expected, the auction volume may not reverse the supply - demand situation [45]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. When the new - crop production situation is clearer, consider shorting the November and January contracts [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: The price of steam coal in northern ports is temporarily stable, and terminal inventory is relatively abundant [46]. - Review: High - temperature power consumption eases coal prices in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable [46]. - Investment Advice: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high - temperature power consumption [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: The mining plan of the Sino Iron project is unconditionally approved [47][48]. - Review: Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals but no prominent contradictions [48]. - Investment Advice: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in July [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The government emphasizes governing low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [49]. - Review: The polysilicon fundamentals are not optimistic, but there have been significant policy changes recently [50]. - Investment Advice: Before leading enterprises jointly cut production, the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the PS2508 - 2509 long - spread position [50]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The production schedule of silicone continues to strengthen [51]. - Review: There are production changes in different regions, and the upper space of the disk is limited [51][52]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Semi - solid batteries are mass - applied in electric light trucks, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and development of related varieties [53][54]. - Review: The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price to rise [54]. - Investment Advice: Short - term lithium prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to avoid short positions or move them to LC2511 and pay attention to buying on dips. Also, consider the LC2509 - LC2511 long - spread position [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Russia's exports of basic metals to China have increased significantly; a new copper company is established; Chile's copper production in May increased month - on - month [55][57][58]. - Review: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly [58]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to take a bullish approach unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: Shanghai launches a subsidy program for electric bicycle trade - ins; battery prices are raised [60][61]. - Review: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long term, and the price may rise [62][63]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and potential Sell Put opportunities. Wait and see for the C - structure and consider external - internal reverse arbitrage [63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME zinc spread is at a discount; a zinc smelter strike ends; Peru's zinc concentrate production increased in April [63][64]. - Review: Zinc prices oscillate downward. Although the short - term macro sentiment is strong, the medium - term fundamentals are expected to be in surplus [64]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see unilaterally, consider positive arbitrage for spreads, and maintain the external - internal positive arbitrage idea in the medium term [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Indonesia proposes an investment plan for nickel mines to the US [65]. - Review: LME and SHFE inventories decrease. The shortage of nickel ore eases, and raw material cost support weakens [66]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds as the medium - term fundamentals are bearish [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: API US crude oil inventories increase [68]. - Review: Oil prices oscillate strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ meeting [68]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price oscillations are expected within a range [69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: Sinopec lowers the listing price of pure benzene [70]. - Review: The short - term supply - demand structure of pure benzene is average, and the supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken in the future [70][71]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the release rhythm of new pure benzene capacity, and price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disruptions [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreases, and the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [72][73]. - Review: The caustic soda market is oversupplied, and prices may continue to decline [73][74]. - Investment Advice: The rebound of the futures price is limited as the spot price decline has not ended [74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - News: Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, and some are slightly lowered [75]. - Review: Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if implemented, inventory pressure will be relieved [77][78]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the bottle chip processing margin by buying on dips [78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - News: The price of imported wood pulp continues to decline [78]. - Review: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [78][79]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak despite the adjustment of deliverable pulp varieties [79]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreases [80]. - Review: PVC futures oscillate after falling, and the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on July 1 decreases, and the carbon market enables one - way auction trading [81][82]. - Review: One - way auction trading improves market efficiency and liquidity [82]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of the 232 tariff has been postponed to September/October, and the price and spread of non-US regions will be significantly supported before the 232 tariff is implemented [5][7] - The supply of alumina is slightly in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range corresponding to the high-cost production capacity and cash cost of bauxite at $73 - $75 [13][16] - The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to remain in a narrow range of increase or decrease in July, and the aluminum consumption off-season may not be too light [23] - The market trading atmosphere of cast aluminum alloy is relatively light, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price [28] - The supply of zinc continues to increase, and the downstream enters the consumption off-season, so the zinc price may be under pressure to decline [37] - The supply of lead may be tightened, and the lead price may fluctuate strongly under the improvement of consumption [42] - The supply and demand of nickel are in a weak pattern, and the nickel price is under pressure in the medium term [49] - The stainless steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to decline in shock [57] - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is in the off-season, so the short-term market is strong [64] - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market rumors, and it is recommended to operate short-term according to the technical graph [70][72] - The polysilicon market is affected by industry and macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [76] - The lithium carbonate price may test the upper pressure, but the upward space is limited, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains in the medium term [81] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 15,446 lots to 596,100 lots. The spot price increased in Shanghai and Guangdong but decreased in Tianjin [2] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world from January to May 2025 reached 7.89 million units, accounting for 27.7% of the total vehicle sales [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; buy near and sell far for arbitrage; wait and see for options [8][9][10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 2,945 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,532 lots to 429,700 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [11] - **Related Information**: The winning bid price of alumina in Xinjiang increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract increased by 65 yuan/ton to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 21,366 lots to 680,400 lots. The spot price in East China increased, while that in South China remained unchanged and that in Central China decreased [19] - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum rods decreased [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; consider positive arbitrage opportunities when de-stocking; wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 50 yuan to 19,825 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 258 lots to 10,089 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [26] - **Related Information**: The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [26] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price, and consider arbitrage trading and spot-futures arbitrage under certain conditions; wait and see for options [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.8% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 6,105 lots to 268,800 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market trading improved [32] - **Related Information**: The smelter in Peru resumed production, and domestic zinc production projects were put into operation [33] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position, and consider shorting on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.26% to 17,100 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 1,148 lots to 82,600 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was limited [40] - **Related Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and Shanghai introduced subsidy policies for electric bicycles [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and consider adding long positions on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 decreased by 250 to 120,720 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 3,110 lots. The spot premium remained unchanged or decreased slightly [46] - **Related Information**: Indonesian nickel projects were launched, and China's economic prosperity level expanded [47][48] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling call options after rallies [50][52] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2508 decreased by 110 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 4,789 lots. The spot price range was given [56] - **Related Information**: India launched an anti-dumping review on Chinese stainless steel pipes, and China continued to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to decline in shock; wait and see for arbitrage [58][59] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2508 closed at 269,840 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly [61] - **Related Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world and different regions was given [62][63] - **Trading Strategy**: The short-term market is strong, and pay attention to the resumption rhythm of tin mines; wait and see for options [64][65] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price range was given [67][68] - **Related Information**: A high-performance fluorine-chlorine new material project was planned to be built [69] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate short-term according to the technical graph; wait and see for options; participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [72][73] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price decreased [74] - **Related Information**: China revised the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and the US solar industry subsidy was discussed [75] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position; wait and see for options and arbitrage [77][79] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract increased by 100 to 62,780 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased. The spot price remained unchanged [80] - **Related Information**: Hainan Mining signed a lithium spodumene purchase agreement, and the central government emphasized market construction [81] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out-of-the-money call options [82][83]

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，由于美元走弱，伦敦金小幅回升，并收复 3300 美元关口，最终 | | 研究员：王伟 | 收涨 0.88%，收报 3302.15 美元/盎司；伦敦银最终收涨 0.36%，报 36.09 美元/盎司。受 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.54%，报 768.98 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.10%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 8722 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破 97 关口，最终收跌 0.54%，报 96.875。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率高开低走，收报 4.23%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 7 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 9 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 9 | | 碳酸锂：仓单矛盾缓解，偏弱运行 | 11 | | 工业硅：上游工厂开始复产，盘面或回调 | 13 | | 多晶硅：关注实际现货成交情况 | 13 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 22 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 25 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 29 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 31 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

Report Overview - The report presents the top ten convertible bonds for July 2025, along with an analysis of the issuing companies [1][2][11] Company Summaries 1. Zhongte Convertible Bond (Zhongte Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 109.399 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 108.66%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 11.5 [5][11] - Company is a global leader in special steel manufacturing with a production capacity of about 20 million tons. It has a complete industrial chain and multiple production bases [11][12] - In 2024, revenue was 109.203 billion yuan (down 4.22% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.126 billion yuan (down 10.41% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 26.84 billion yuan (down 5.59% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.384 billion yuan (up 1.76% YoY) [11] - Company highlights: largest variety - specification range, leading cost - control, and potential expansion through asset injection [12] 2. Shanlu Convertible Bond (Shanlu Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 113.766 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 50.91%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 3.9 [5][20] - Company focuses on road and bridge construction and maintenance, with a comprehensive business system [20] - In 2024, revenue was 71.348 billion yuan (down 2.3% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.322 billion yuan (up 1.47% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 9.764 billion yuan (up 1.95% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.249 billion yuan (up 1.89% YoY) [20] - Company highlights: state - owned background, potential in debt - resolution, local infrastructure opportunities, and overseas expansion [21] 3. Jintong Convertible Bond (Jintong Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA+; 6 - month - end closing price: 128.025 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 5.74%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 20.7 [5][31] - Company engages in non - ferrous metal processing, providing materials for emerging industries [31] - In 2024, revenue was 124.161 billion yuan (up 12.36% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.462 billion yuan (down 12.29% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 27.285 billion yuan (up 9.89% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.151 billion yuan (up 38.55% YoY) [31] - Company highlights: rebound in copper processing, growth in rare - earth permanent magnets, and expansion in electromagnetic flat wire business [32] 4. Aima Convertible Bond (Aima Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA; 6 - month - end closing price: 123.919 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 37.61%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 14.1 [5][40] - Company is a leading player in the electric two - wheeler industry [40] - In 2024, revenue was 21.606 billion yuan (up 2.71% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.988 billion yuan (up 5.68% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 6.232 billion yuan (up 25.82% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.605 billion yuan (up 25.12% YoY) [40] - Company highlights: subsidy - driven demand, new national standard benefits, and potential margin improvement [41] 5. Xingye Convertible Bond (Xingye Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 124.495 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 13.03%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 6.4 [5][52] - Company is a large - scale joint - stock commercial bank with multiple financial licenses [52] - In 2024, revenue was 212.226 billion yuan (up 0.66% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.205 billion yuan (up 0.12% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 55.683 billion yuan (down 3.58% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.796 billion yuan (down 2.22% YoY) [52] - Company highlights: stable growth in net interest income, stable asset quality, and expanding scale [53] 6. Youfa Convertible Bond (Youfa Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA; 6 - month - end closing price: 126.782 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 6.47%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 14.7 [5][64] - Company is the largest welded steel pipe manufacturer in China [64] - In 2024, revenue was 54.822 billion yuan (down 10.01% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.425 billion yuan (down 25.46% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 11.402 billion yuan (up 6.06% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.133 billion yuan (up 9680.17% YoY) [64] - Company highlights: national layout, overseas market expansion, and high dividend policy [65] 7. Chongyin Convertible Bond (Chongyin Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 125.956 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 12.15%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 7.3 [5][77] - Company is a regional joint - stock commercial bank in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River [77] - In 2024, revenue was 13.679 billion yuan (up 3.54% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.117 billion yuan (up 3.8% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 3.581 billion yuan (up 5.3% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.624 billion yuan (up 5.33% YoY) [77] - Company highlights: regional economic development opportunities, asset scale growth, and strategic risk management [78] 8. Baidian Convertible Bond (Baidian Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA; 6 - month - end closing price: 131.325 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 2.85%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 24.3 [5][88] - Company is a high - tech enterprise in power distribution equipment [88] - In 2024, revenue was 4.985 billion yuan (up 15.12% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.196 billion yuan (up 79.05% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 0.976 billion yuan (up 4.68% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.037 billion yuan (up 11.47% YoY) [88] - Company highlights: improving profitability and strong order backlog [89] 9. Huayuan Convertible Bond (Huayuan Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA -; 6 - month - end closing price: 129.19 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 14.24%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 26.3 [5][101] - Company focuses on the vitamin D3 industrial chain [101] - In 2024, revenue was 1.243 billion yuan (up 13.58% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.309 billion yuan (up 60.76% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 0.326 billion yuan (down 1.18% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.097 billion yuan (up 5.5% YoY) [101] - Company highlights: leading products in the industry, product expansion, and new drug approvals [102] 10. Yushui Convertible Bond (Yushui Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 124.888 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 30.54%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 26.6 [5][112] - Company is the largest water supply and drainage enterprise in Chongqing [112] - In 2024, revenue was 6.999 billion yuan (down 3.52% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.785 billion yuan (down 27.88% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.652 billion yuan (up 8.66% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.237 billion yuan (up 28.91% YoY) [112] - Company highlights: stable local business, market expansion, and cost control [113]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].