中央纪委国家监委网站 柴雅欣 1月19日，2025年中国经济成绩单公布：初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算， 比上年增长5.0%。 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，中国经济航船无惧风 雨，顶住多重压力，保持稳中有进发展态势，高质量发展取得新成效。但也要看到，外部环境变化影响 加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少。翻开这份成绩单，我们应如何看 待经济数据背后的发展成色？面对新的风高浪急，中国经济航船如何继续乘风破浪、勇毅前行？ 稳中有进：在风浪中稳住了发展底盘、巩固了发展根基 "稳"是2025年中国经济的突出特点。面对外部环境急剧变化，国内困难挑战增多的复杂严峻形势，我国 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，不仅有效化解外部环境变化的不利影响，更在风浪中稳住了发展的底 盘、巩固了发展的根基。 "全年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，比上年增长3.7%，比2024年加快0.2个百分点，规模居全球零 售市场前列。"康义说。 "中国经济又一次在爬坡过坎中实现全年5%的增长，完成了年初确定的目标。特别是2025年国内生产总 值首次站上 ...

国家统计局1月19日发布数据显示：2025年我国国内生产总值(GDP)首次突破140万亿元，以5%的增速实 现了年初设定的预期目标。消费和工业两大"压舱石"加快增长，消费市场规模突破50万亿元，制造业增 加值达到34.7万亿元，制造业有望继续保持全球第一。 "2025年我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，主要的预期目标圆满实现，展现了强大韧性和活力，为今 年经济发展奠定了良好的基础。"国家统计局局长康义19日在国新办新闻发布会上表示。 康义表示，看中国经济，要全面、辩证、长远地看。透过量与质、内与外、形与势的经济"三棱镜"，可 以发现，中国经济不仅实现了规模跃升，还实现了结构向优、动能向新；不仅内需释放出了活力和动 能，外需也彰显了韧性；不仅稳定增长之"形"延续，而且2026年有望继续呈现向好之"势"。 量质齐升：经济顶压前行、向优向新 面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，2025年经济稳定增长。国家统计局发布的数据显示，全年国内生产总 值达到1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比2024年增长5.0%。 "2025年经济总量达到了140万亿元，这是一个相当了不起的成绩，充分展现了中国经济稳中有进的态 势、顶压前行的韧 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices surged to a historical high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.77% to $4,676.70 per ounce, and reaching $4,698 during Asian trading hours, driven by concerns over a potential trade war between the US and Europe due to President Trump's actions regarding Greenland [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 6.49%, closing at $94.280 per ounce, also hitting a new historical high during the trading session [1] - Over the past 12 months, international gold prices have risen approximately 70%, with recent geopolitical tensions and criticisms of the Federal Reserve's independence further fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5%, and also adjusted the growth expectations for 2026 [3] - The Chinese government is set to hold two important press conferences on January 20, 2026, to discuss the implementation of the central economic work conference and the role of active fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic development [4] Group 3 - Jihong Co., Ltd. (02603) expects a net profit of approximately RMB 273 million to RMB 291 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 60% [5] - Xinyi International (00732) announced an investment of RMB 500 million into Guangdian Renshou, reducing its ownership from 100% to 60% after the completion of the capital increase agreement [6] - Tencent, Fidelity International, and Temasek are reportedly planning to invest in the Hong Kong IPO of snack retailer Mingming Hen Mang, with the fundraising potentially reaching up to $500 million [7][8] Group 4 - HSBC (00005) is on track to reach a market capitalization of £300 billion, with the bank's CEO expressing confidence in the potential for a stock price increase of over 50% [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) announced plans to acquire equity and assets related to DFS's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million [10][11] - XPeng Motors has successfully launched the first robot developed under the ET1 standard, marking a significant step towards mass production of high-level humanoid robots [12] Group 5 - China Eastern Airlines announced the sale of a property by its subsidiary Shanghai Airlines for approximately RMB 134 million, aimed at optimizing its asset-liability structure [13] - Mingming Hen Mang plans to issue over 14 million shares in its Hong Kong IPO, with a pricing range between HKD 226.6 and HKD 236.6 per share, expected to start trading on January 28 [14] - SANY International (00631) reported a revenue of approximately RMB 18.147 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 22.9% [16]

Group 1 - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) reached 48,518.6 billion yuan, driven by large-scale equipment upgrades and the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Industrial investment grew by 2.6% year-on-year, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall investment growth, with mining investment up by 2.5%, manufacturing investment up by 0.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply investment up by 9.1% [1] - Infrastructure investment in key areas saw significant growth, with pipeline transportation investment increasing by 36.0%, internet and related services investment up by 23.8%, and multimodal transport and agency investment rising by 22.9% [1] Group 2 - Equipment and tool purchase investment grew by 11.8% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth, and accounted for 18.0% of total investment, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous year [1] - High-tech service industry investment increased by 3.5% year-on-year, representing 5.6% of total service industry investment, up by 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 3 - Investment in forestry rose by 28.5%, fisheries investment increased by 12.4%, and investment in electricity and heat production and supply grew by 11.1% [3] - The investment in agricultural and sideline food processing increased by 9.2%, while wholesale and retail investment grew by 5.6%, and accommodation and catering investment rose by 5.5% [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - The overall consumer price index (CPI) is stable and gradually improving, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% for 2025, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3] - CPI experienced significant monthly fluctuations in January and February due to the Spring Festival, with January rising by 0.5% and February falling by 0.7%. From March to July, CPI remained stable with fluctuations between -0.1% and 0.1% [2] - Food prices decreased by 1.5% for the year, contributing approximately 0.27 percentage points to the CPI decline, while energy prices fell by 3.3%, impacting CPI by about 0.25 percentage points [2] Group 2: Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI has been rising since March 2025, maintaining a year-on-year increase of over 1% for four consecutive months from September to December, with December seeing a rise of 1.2% [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.6% for the year, but the decline narrowed in the second half, with a reduction of only 1.9% in December, the smallest since September 2024 [4] - Prices in the coal mining and processing sectors turned upward after nine months of decline, with December prices rising by 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, contributing to the narrowing of the PPI decline [4] Group 3: Industrial Development and Price Increases - The high-quality development and transformation of industries have led to price increases in certain sectors, with significant growth in manufacturing driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and green technologies [5] - Prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing, external storage devices, and wearable smart devices increased by 2.0%, 0.7%, and 0.1% respectively, reflecting the impact of new production capabilities [5]

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank's January 2026 Global Economic Outlook report indicates that despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties, global economic resilience exceeds expectations. The global growth rate is projected to slightly decline to 2.6% in 2026, with a rebound to 2.7% in 2027, showing that while resilience is present, growth momentum is weakening [1][2]. Economic Recovery Disparities - In 2025, global per capita GDP is expected to be approximately 10% higher than in 2019. However, the recovery is highly uneven, with nearly 90% of developed economies returning to pre-pandemic income levels, while over a quarter of emerging markets and developing economies, particularly low-income and conflict-affected countries, still have per capita income below 2019 levels. This highlights the severe impact on low-income and vulnerable nations [2][3]. Trade Dynamics - Global trade relations remain tense, suppressing economic recovery. Trade growth in 2025 is primarily driven by companies preemptively importing and exporting to avoid tariff risks. However, from 2026 onwards, trade growth is expected to slow significantly as inventory levels decrease and tariff impacts become more pronounced, with trade policy uncertainties dampening business investment and confidence [2][3]. Inflation Trends - Global inflation is generally on a downward trend, with most countries' inflation rates nearing central bank targets. The impact of U.S. tariffs on goods inflation has been partially offset by inventory accumulation and supply chain adjustments. However, financial market volatility remains a significant risk factor [3][4]. Employment Challenges - Employment challenges are a core issue for developing economies, as insufficient growth will hinder their ability to create enough jobs for a rapidly growing young population. By 2035, approximately 1.2 billion young people are expected to enter the labor market, but many countries still have per capita income below pre-pandemic levels, exacerbating employment pressures, particularly in key sectors like infrastructure, agriculture, healthcare, tourism, and manufacturing [4][5]. Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for coordinated global policies to address trade, debt, climate, and financial risks. Recommendations include maintaining and improving the multilateral trade system, supporting financing and debt relief for developing economies, enhancing global cooperation on climate risks, and ensuring financial stability through coordinated macroeconomic policies [5][6].

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, meeting the initial target set at the beginning of the year [1][2] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was 4.5%, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to the third quarter [1] Economic Contributions - In 2025, the contribution rates to economic growth from final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports were 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively [4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, with service retail sales increasing by 5.5% [5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value reached 41.7 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing 35% to economic growth [6][7] - The manufacturing sector's added value was 34.7 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.1%, maintaining a stable share of around 25% of GDP [6] Consumer Behavior - The share of service consumption in per capita consumption expenditure was 46.1% in 2025, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [5] - The growth in service retail sales outpaced that of goods retail sales, reflecting changing consumer preferences towards personalized and high-quality services [5] Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the economic foundation remains strong, with opportunities expected to outweigh challenges in 2026 [1][3] - The focus for 2026 will be on enhancing industrial development and technological innovation, with expectations for industrial added value growth to reach approximately 4.9% [8][9]

Core Insights - The Sichuan Provincial Government has announced the list of key projects for 2026, totaling 830 projects with an expected investment of 762.48 billion yuan [1] - Chengdu has 168 projects included in the annual key project list, with a total investment of nearly 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 20.2% and 24.4% of the province's total projects and investment respectively [1] Summary by Category - **Infrastructure Projects**: 318 projects with an expected investment of 360.32 billion yuan, including 48 highway projects (over 110 billion yuan) and 19 railway projects (over 60 billion yuan) [2] - **Industrial Projects**: 425 projects with an expected investment of 363.75 billion yuan, comprising 246 manufacturing projects (over 210 billion yuan), 54 energy projects (over 60 billion yuan), and 89 modern service projects (over 50 billion yuan) [2] - **Social and Livelihood Projects**: 63 projects with an expected investment of 26.52 billion yuan [2] - **Ecological and Environmental Projects**: 24 projects with an expected investment of 11.89 billion yuan [2] - **New Quality Productive Forces**: Over 240 projects with an expected investment exceeding 200 billion yuan, including 23 technology innovation infrastructure projects [2] - **Private Investment Projects**: Over 250 projects with an expected investment of nearly 200 billion yuan [2] - **Chengdu's Project Composition**: The industrial sector represents a significant portion of Chengdu's 2026 key projects, with 48.2% in number and 37.1% in investment amount [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by 2025, marking a significant milestone in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a contribution rate of approximately 30% to global economic growth, positioning China as a stable and reliable driver of the world economy [2]. Economic Data Overview - The total grain production in China for the year reached 71.488 million tons, an increase of 0.838 million tons or 1.2% from the previous year [3]. - The total meat production, including pork, beef, lamb, and poultry, reached 10.072 million tons, marking a 4.2% increase and surpassing 100 million tons for the first time [3]. - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.9% year-on-year [3]. Sector Performance - The mining sector's added value increased by 5.6%, manufacturing grew by 6.4%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a growth of 2.3% [4]. - The service sector's added value rose by 5.4%, with notable growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (11.1%), leasing and business services (10.3%), and transportation, warehousing, and postal services (5.2%) [4]. Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 5.012 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [4]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 4.85186 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous year [5]. Income and Employment - The per capita disposable income for residents was 43,377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% and a real growth of 5.0% after adjusting for price factors [6]. - The average urban unemployment rate was recorded at 5.2%, while the average working hours for employees were 48.6 hours per week [8][9]. Trade Performance - The total import and export value reached 45.4687 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports by 0.5% [13][14]. - Private enterprises' import and export value increased by 7.1%, accounting for 57.3% of the total [15]. High-Technology Sector - Exports of high-tech products grew by 13.2%, indicating a strong performance in this sector [17]. Economic Outlook - The economic performance in 2025 is characterized by a focus on high-quality development, with significant achievements in social and economic goals, despite challenges from external environments and domestic demand-supply imbalances [18].

Economic Growth - China's GDP for 2025 reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, meeting the initial target set at the beginning of the year [1] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was 4.5%, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to the third quarter [1] - The contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports to economic growth were 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively for 2025 [4] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in 2025 was 41.7 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing 35% to economic growth [6] - Manufacturing output reached 34.7 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.1%, maintaining a stable share of around 25% of GDP [6] - In December 2025, the industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing increasing by 5.7% [7] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, with service retail sales increasing by 5.5% [4][5] - The proportion of service consumption in per capita consumption expenditure was 46.1% in 2025, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [5] - The government plans to implement measures to boost consumption, including a special action plan and urban-rural income increase initiatives [5] Economic Outlook - The economic growth rate for 2026 is expected to remain stable, supported by strong fundamentals despite external challenges [1][3] - Analysts predict that while export growth may slow, domestic demand will be bolstered by policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [8] - The focus for 2026 will be on achieving qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the industrial economy [8]