以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 大宗商品行情热度居高不下 ， 尤以贵金属为代表的有色板块走出超预期上涨行情 。 这一轮行情固然有价格自身推动的因素 ， 但更核心的是市 场对长期全球发展的各类担忧 ， 集中反映在了大宗商品的定价中 ， 黄金 、 白银 、 铜这类品种尤为明显 ， 背后是投资者对未来地缘政治等诸 多投资不确定性的集体预判 。 股票市场大宗商品相关板块同样走势火热 ， 而这样的行情表现 ， 与过去几轮典型的大宗商品上行周期有着本质 区别 ， 但凡长期跟踪全球商品与大类资产的走势 ， 都能清晰感受到这一轮行情的独特性 。 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 与典型牛市相比 ， 当下全球经济的基本面现状 ， 与大宗商品市场的火热表现形成了鲜明的背离 ， 这也是非典型性的核心体现之一 。 从全球经 济复苏动力来看 ， 当前整体复苏节奏偏弱 ， 远不及商品市场所反映的乐观状态 。 无论是全球PMI数据 、 全球M2投放数据 ， ...

剩余流动性趋缓背景下，大盘股将跑赢小盘股；全年维度看，科技+顺周期仍是配置主线。对投资者而言，当前时点应把握中长线配置机会，重新审视"成 长"的定义边界。 调整到位信号明确，微观流动性冲击快速出清 市场经历了一轮猛烈但短暂的调整。据华创数据，宽基ETF今年以来累计净流出1.02万亿元，杠杆资金过去5个交易日净流出582亿元，创下去年4月以来新 高。贵金属价格暴跌引发有色金属板块回吐涨幅，叠加监管层上调融资保证金比例释放降温信号，市场风险偏好受到明显抑制。 市场短期剧烈调整后，配置窗口已经打开。在牛市背景下，微观流动性冲击已出清，关注顺周期与地产链的困境反转。 据追风交易台，华创证券2月8日发布的策略周报显示，本轮回撤或已到位——2月2日跌停公司达130家创新高，杠杆资金5日净流出582亿元，市场温度回落 至去年11月水平。 更关键的是投资风格正在发生深刻变化：成长股将优于价值股，但成长机会不再局限于科创板块，顺周期和地产链的困境反转同样值得关注； 但多个指标显示调整已经充分。从投资者情绪看，上证指数在4000点附近的市场温度已接近去年11月的3800点水平；2月2日跌停公司达130家，超过去年11 月21日的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a rebound on low volume. In the long - term, with a low - interest - rate environment and "asset shortage", the domestic market has abundant funds and the economy is bottoming out, so the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Market sentiment has recovered. In the context of tightening nickel ore supply in Indonesia, supply concerns may continue to disrupt the market. For different metals and commodities, their prices are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term consolidation after rebound, medium - to - long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks, focus on Bank of Japan's decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have rebounded due to improved downstream demand and increased risk appetite [1]. - Aluminum: Prices are oscillating strongly with limited industrial - end drivers and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Operating capacity has declined, but inventories have increased, and prices remain oscillating [1]. - Zinc: Cost center is stable, prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Nickel: Prices have rebounded in the short term, affected by the situation in Indonesia. In the long term, high global inventories may be a constraint [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures are oscillating, with support from the raw - material side and improved macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual production by steel mills [1]. - Tin: Prices are volatile in the short term, and investors should focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Have rebounded due to improved liquidity, weak dollar index, and weak inflation expectations. They are expected to stabilize and oscillate before the Spring Festival [1]. - Platinum and lithium: May fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Scheduled production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Polysilicon: Suggested to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - Carbonate lithium: In the off - season for new - energy vehicles, with strong demand for energy storage and battery exports. There is a need for a correction after a large increase [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: High production and high inventory limit price increases, and the transmission from futures to spot prices is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive arbitrage positions can be taken [1]. - Iron ore: There is obvious pressure above the current level, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Current supply and demand are weak, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with looser supply and demand in the medium term, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Similar logic, mainly depending on capital sentiment during the off - season. Opportunities for high - point realization of spot goods or establishment of positive arbitrage positions should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: Are expected to turn to an oscillating trend due to various factors such as the end of pre - festival stocking, purchase expectations, and tariff adjustments [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". Future policies, planting area, weather, and demand should be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices continue to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: Is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain and policy changes [1]. - Soybean meal: Is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, affected by factors such as US soybean exports and Brazilian discounts. The spot basis is expected to weaken [1]. - Pulp: With disturbances on the supply side and weakening demand after restocking, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Logs: Spot prices have risen, and with a decrease in February arrivals and rising foreign quotes, the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - Pigs: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, and production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the US and Iran may hold peace talks, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down. The commodity market sentiment has turned bearish [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and supply is sufficient [1]. - BR rubber: The cost side has strong support, and there are expectations of export increases. Short - term downstream negative feedback is being realized, and the market should pay attention to pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance [1]. - PTA and short - fiber: The PX market is strong, driving up chemical products. PTA production is increasing, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence [1]. - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory has decreased [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, there are both long and short factors. Downstream negative feedback is obvious [1]. - PVC: Global production capacity expansion is limited in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared in the northwest [1]. - LPG: The CP price has risen, and the market is expected to weaken. The basis is expected to widen, and demand is short - term bearish [1]. - Container shipping on the European route: Pre - festival freight rates have peaked and declined. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

17.9万户股东(2025年三季报数据为179,229户)再次迎来杉杉股份（600884）(600884.SH)的涨停。2月9 日，公司股价开盘即涨停，收于15.81元/股，涨幅10.02%，总市值达355.6亿元。此前2月6日，杉杉股份 涨停，报14.37元/股，总市值323.2亿元。 此轮上涨源于2月8日晚间公告披露的重大控制权变更：杉杉股份控股股东将变更为安徽皖维集团有限责 任公司(下称"皖维集团")，实际控制人将变更为安徽省人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会(下称"安徽省 国资委")。 杉杉股份曾于2025年9月宣布由任元林牵头的民营资本联合体作为重整投资人签署协议，但因该方案未 获债权人会议通过，相关协议已于2025年11月依法解除，控制权始终未完成交割。随着安徽国资正式接 盘，这场历时三年的控制权重构进程有望迎来实质性落地。对历经创始人猝逝、家族内斗、董事长更 迭、破产重整与投资人更换等多重冲击的17.9万股东而言，安徽国资的入主，究竟是终结动荡的"定心 丸"，还是潜藏新变量的"新赌局"？答案不仅关乎治理稳定，更直接影响其持股价值与长期回报预期。 这场控制权变局的源头，可追溯至2023年2月杉杉股份创 ...

经过多轮推进，杉杉集团的重整进程迎来重要转折。 2月8日晚，杉杉股份（600884.SH）公告签署重整投资协议。受该消息影响，杉杉股份连续两个交易日涨停，2月9收盘报收 15.81元，最新市值356亿元。 | 分析 > 1分 5分 15分 50分 bU分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | | | 19 @ @ BE BE AND JAN BE W U | | | | | | | | | 移移股份 1 立即 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 15.81 +1.44 +10.02% | | | | 600884[杉杉股份]13:46 价 15.81 涨跌 1.44(10.02%) 均价 15.81 成交量 26 成交金额 4万 | | Win.d人气榜 第170名 | 2026/02/09 | | ಡಿ | | | | | | 600884 × 8 | | | 通融 2 四日 | | | | | | | | | | | SSE C ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for the global chemical industry driven by the new demand cycle from anti-involution and AI, with a focus on the upcoming peak season in the chemical sector leading to price increases [1][2] - Chinese chemical companies are expected to benefit from solid cost and efficiency advantages, entering a long-term upward performance cycle [2] - The report emphasizes the potential for increased dividend yields as supply-side constraints and demand recovery enhance industry profitability [2] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on sectors with supply constraints and recovering demand, which are likely to see sustained improvements in industry conditions [2] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Coal Chemical: Hualu Chemical, Luxi Chemical, Baofeng Energy 2. Oil Refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC 3. Polyurethane: Wanhua Chemical, Huafeng Chemical 4. Phosphate Fertilizer: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, Xinyangfeng, Batian Shares 5. Pesticides: Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, Xingfa Group, Limin Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Xin'an Shares, Runfeng Shares 6. Potash Fertilizer: Salt Lake Shares, Yara International, Oriental Iron Tower [2] Supply Drivers - The report notes that domestic anti-involution measures and the exit of European production capacity are expected to support the chemical industry's recovery [3] Demand Drivers - The report identifies several demand-driven opportunities, including: 1. Gas turbines and SOFC upstream: Zhenhua Shares, Yingliu Shares, Longda Shares, Wanze Shares, Sanhuan Group 2. Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: Juhua Shares, New Zhoubang, Runhe Materials 3. Energy storage industry chain: Chuanheng Shares, Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Shares, Yuntu Holdings 4. Robotics materials industry chain: PEEK - Kingfa Technology, Zhongyan Shares, Guoen Shares, Huitong Shares 5. Semiconductor materials industry chain: Photoresists: Yanggu Huatai, Wanhua Shares, Dinglong Shares, Tongcheng New Materials, Jingrui Electric Materials, Jiuri New Materials, Yake Technology [7][10] Recent Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance, with a 1-month increase of 5.7%, a 3-month increase of 15.4%, and a 12-month increase of 47.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [5] Key Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [29]

每经记者｜黄胜 每经编辑｜陈柯名 值得注意的是，CPO概念反复走强，天孚通信涨超17%，续创历史新高，总市值超2300亿元。杰普特涨停，炬光科技涨超17%，长盈通、东田微、腾景科 技、安孚科技、太辰光等大涨。消息面上，Tower半导体日前宣布与英伟达合作开发用于AI数据中心的先进硅光子技术。这家以色列半导体代工厂将通过 高性能硅光子技术扩展AI基础设施部署，用于为英伟达网络协议设计的1.6T数据中心光学模块。 记者|黄胜 编辑|陈柯名 杜恒峰 校对|许绍航 2月9日收盘，市场高开高走，沪指涨超1%，深成指涨超2%。沪深两市成交额2.27万亿元，较上一个交易日放量1000亿元。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4600只个股上涨。从板块来看，AI应用端持续拉升，引力传媒、荣信文化、中文在线、海看股份、掌阅科技、欢 瑞世纪涨停。化工板块反复活跃，闰土股份2连板，红太阳、华尔泰、海翔药业、亚邦股份涨停。光伏概念表现活跃，协鑫集成4连板，TCL中环4天2板。 算力硬件概念集体走强，天孚通信触及20cm涨停创历史新高。商业航天概念走高，中超控股、顶固集创、杭萧钢构涨停。下跌方面，油气股走势较弱， 通源石油、潜能恒信震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant activity with 83 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and momentum in certain sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - A total of 83 stocks reached the daily limit up, with 14 stocks achieving consecutive limit ups [1] - 26 stocks attempted to hit the limit but failed, resulting in a limit-up rate of 76% (excluding ST and delisted stocks) [1] Group 2: Focus Stocks - AI application concept stock, Mingdiao Co., achieved 6 consecutive limit ups over 7 days [1] - Film and television stock, Hengdian Film, recorded 6 limit ups over 8 days [1] - Chemical stock, Baichuan Co., saw 6 limit ups over 9 days [1] - M&A and restructuring stock, Hanjian Heshan, achieved 5 consecutive limit ups [1] - Kailong High-Tech reached 4 consecutive limit ups with a 20% increase [1]

*ST万方（维权）连续20日跌停，*ST精伦连续10日跌停，*ST国华连续6日跌停，*ST原尚连续2日跌 停，国发股份、郴电国际等跌停。 2月9日，A股全天下来共有96只涨停股、8只跌停股。 AI应用概念走强，引力传媒、荣信文化、中文在 线、掌阅科技等涨停。化工板块反复活跃，闰土股份2连板，红太阳、华尔泰、海翔药业、亚邦股份涨 停。 连板股方面，ST京蓝（维权）11天9板，百川股份9天6板，名雕股份7天6板，韩建河山5连板，天通股 份7天4板，ST京机6天4板，京投发展5天4板，协鑫集成、凯龙高科4连板，金富科技、ST华西（维权） 等3连板，TCL中环、拓日新能等4天2板，吉华集团3天2板，协鑫能科等2连板，长飞光纤、盛和资源等 涨停。 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) showing a 1.06% increase in its benchmark index and a trading volume of 34.27 million yuan [1] - The chemical ETF Tianhong has seen a net inflow of 1.958 billion yuan over the last 30 trading days, reaching a new high in total assets of 2.574 billion yuan as of February 6, 2026 [1] - Emerging fields such as new energy materials, high-performance plastics, and bio-based chemicals are expected to have long-term growth potential, with leading companies enhancing R&D and industry chain layout to improve global competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate multiple favorable factors in the chemical sector, including price increases for TDI in the Asia-Pacific region and collective price hikes for vitamin E and dyes in China [2] - Policy measures in China aim to curb vicious competition, while overseas policies like the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism are reshaping supply dynamics [2] - Improved supply-demand relationships, driven by overseas facility maintenance and strong demand for high-end chemical materials from emerging sectors like AI computing and new energy vehicles, are contributing to a significant year-on-year increase in chemical raw material exports [2]