投资建议：本周推荐组合为贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、东鹏 饮料、安井食品等。 风险提示：需求恢复较弱；原材料价格大幅上涨；市场竞争加剧。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月07日 食品饮料周报（25 年第 27 周） 优于大市 茅台价格趋稳，关注板块中报业绩表现 本周（2025 年 6 月 30 日至 2025 年 7 月 4 日）本周食品饮料板块上涨 0.74%， 跑输上证指数 0.67pct。本周食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为科拓生物 (21.90%)、煌上煌(11.71%)、晨光生物(11.47%)、百洋股份(10.45%)和双塔 食品(9.71%)。 白酒：茅台价格趋稳，关注板块第二季度业绩表现。贵州茅台 7 月 2 日公告 回购股份进展，截至 6 月底，公司累计回购股份 338.21 万股，占公司总股 本的比例为 0.27%，支付金额 52.02 亿元。本周白酒指数上涨 1.2%，基本面 加速磨底，关注增量政策带来的估值修复。情绪面看，大盘整体稳中走强， 促消费政策预期升温，顺周期属性较强的标的表现更好。基本面看，需求压 力仍然较大，第二季度业绩表现预计平淡，酒企更 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is under pressure, with overall collection progress in Q2 lagging behind last year, and sales showing a year-on-year gap. The prices of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are under pressure due to regulatory measures aimed at reducing waste [5][15] - The beverage sector, particularly beer and dairy products, is expected to show varying performance, with some companies like Qingdao Beer and Yili maintaining growth while others face challenges [6][18] - The snack food segment is experiencing strong growth driven by channel optimization and product innovation, with companies like Youfu Foods and Yanjin Beer showing significant revenue increases [19][21] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - Q2 performance is expected to be weak for most liquor companies, with Moutai projected to have a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year, while Wuliangye is expected to decline by 2% [16] - Regulatory measures have impacted normal consumption scenarios, leading to a cautious approach from companies as they prepare for traditional consumption peaks during festivals [15] 2. Beer Sector - Qingdao Beer is expected to see slight growth due to low sales base in Q2 2024, while Chongqing Beer is projected to maintain sales levels [17] - Yanjin Beer is benefiting from supply chain management improvements, contributing to profitability [18] 3. Dairy Products - Yili is expected to face pressure in its ambient liquid milk segment, while other products like milk powder and ice cream continue to grow [18] - New Dairy is projected to maintain its performance in low-temperature categories, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [18] 4. Soft Drinks - Eastroc Beverage is anticipated to continue its steady growth in energy drinks, while new products are expected to drive higher growth rates [19] - Chengde Lululemon is expected to see improvements in gross margins despite raw material price increases [19] 5. Snack Foods - Youfu Foods is focusing on channel optimization and product innovation, expecting significant revenue and profit growth [19] - Salted Fish and other snack companies are also projected to maintain strong growth, with new product launches expected to drive performance in the second half of the year [19][21] 6. Restaurant Supply Chain - Anji Foods is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth, while competition continues to pressure margins [20] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is projected to maintain stable revenue, with slight pressure in the small B restaurant segment [20] 7. Export Companies - Zhongchong Co. is expected to maintain high revenue growth due to positive pre-sale feedback, while Xianle Health is projected to continue its growth trend despite some fluctuations in export business [21]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Langjiu Group, Wang Junlin, emphasized the importance of maintaining merchant interests and team stability during the mid-year conference, addressing current industry challenges and showcasing Langjiu's strategic foresight [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Focus - Langjiu's strategic determination is encapsulated in "eight persistences" and "four assurances," with a focus on protecting merchant interests and ensuring team stability as top priorities [1][3]. - The long-term advocacy of "altruism" is highlighted as a means to create a positive industry ecosystem, where stable teams ensure product quality and market foundation, and maintaining merchant interests is key to stabilizing the pricing system [3][5]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Langjiu refuses to engage in price wars, aiming to maintain price stability and protect merchants' profitability amidst high channel inventory and market pressures [5][7]. - The company aims to enhance merchant income and optimize market order as a priority for 2025, indicating a commitment to a sustainable business model [5][6]. Group 3: Organizational Structure - Langjiu has undergone significant team upgrades to enhance collaboration across departments, aiming for a more professional and efficient market competition [6][9]. - The restructuring of marketing and operational entities into seven major units aims to improve market insight, decision-making efficiency, and tactical execution [9]. Group 4: Team Stability - Wang Junlin identifies team stability as crucial for maintaining market confidence and ensuring consistent product quality, especially in a turbulent industry environment [8][9]. - The company has implemented a "quasi-company system" for its brand divisions, granting frontline teams greater operational autonomy and flexibility to respond to market changes [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently in a period of adjustment, with leading companies focusing on "steady development" as their primary strategy amidst challenges such as slowing consumer demand and intensified competition [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Dividends - Major liquor companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe are showing a trend of increasing dividend amounts and ratios, reflecting their strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [7][8]. - Moutai plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 646.72 billion yuan for 2024, with a distribution rate of around 80% [7]. - Wuliangye announced a record high total dividend of 223 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend yield of 4.9%, and committed to maintaining a dividend ratio of no less than 70% from 2024 to 2026 [7][8]. - Luzhou Laojiao has also set a three-year cash dividend plan, with rates increasing from 65% to 75% over the next three years [8]. Group 2: Strategic Focus and Market Positioning - The keyword for the liquor industry in 2025 is "stability," as companies prioritize maintaining market share and quality over rapid growth [3][6]. - Wuliangye reported a revenue growth of 7.09% and a net profit growth of 5.44% for 2024, continuing its trend of steady growth for ten consecutive years [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu emphasized the shift in competition from speed to quality, focusing on stabilizing markets, channels, and prices [5]. Group 3: International Expansion - Moutai's international revenue reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant milestone in its global strategy, which includes transitioning from product export to brand and cultural promotion [9]. - Wuliangye has successfully opened 21 new overseas markets and established 29 new distributors, enhancing its international presence [10]. - Fenjiu is implementing a differentiated international strategy, successfully filling market gaps in 11 countries and increasing its overseas revenue by over 50% [10]. Group 4: Product Innovation and Market Trends - The trend towards lower alcohol content beverages is gaining traction, with several leading companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, planning to launch low-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers [13][16]. - Moutai has introduced a blueberry sparkling wine and is actively recruiting distributors to capture more market share in the low-alcohol segment [16]. - The industry is recognizing the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with companies exploring new product lines to meet diverse market demands [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the challenges faced by the liquor industry, particularly the Moutai brand, cannot be solely attributed to a single company acting as a "savior" but rather require collective efforts from all industry participants to overcome structural issues and innovate for survival [1][2][3][5][6][7]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, leading to a tendency to either idolize top brands like Moutai as a "safe haven" or to adopt a passive stance, which is a form of escapism [1]. - Moutai's success is rooted in the high-end market, creating a disconnect with the broader consumer market, similar to how luxury brands cannot resolve issues in fast-moving consumer goods [2]. - The perception of Moutai as a "safe asset" reflects investor panic over economic uncertainty, resulting in Moutai accounting for 56% of the liquor sector's market value in 2023, which exacerbates the disparity between large and small enterprises [3]. Group 2: Social and Economic Factors - The public's excessive focus on Moutai simplifies complex economic issues into a search for a benchmark, obscuring the real structural problems such as overcapacity and changing consumer preferences [5]. - Even if Moutai wanted to take on industry responsibility, its management capabilities are limited to its supply chain and cannot address deeper issues like channel inventory and price discrepancies [6]. - The expectation for a public company to sacrifice shareholder interests to "save the industry" contradicts modern corporate governance principles [7]. Group 3: Responsibility and Innovation - The current challenges in the liquor market stem from multiple factors, and blaming a single entity is unscientific; key stakeholders include government, industry associations, leading enterprises, and small businesses [7][9]. - The slow recovery of consumer confidence and the cautious spending on non-essential goods highlight a shift in consumption logic that liquor companies must address [9]. - The article suggests a shift from merely looking at benchmarks to understanding consumer needs, advocating for innovation and restructuring to adapt to market changes [10][12]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on demand disaggregation and explore niche markets, such as "micro-drinks" for specific occasions [10]. - There is a call for reverse innovation and value chain reconstruction to enhance market resilience and adaptability [10]. - Organizations are encouraged to build robust teams capable of thriving in challenging environments, emphasizing the importance of internal agility over external complaints [12].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the 1L Flying Moutai (53% vol) at a price of 3799 yuan on the iMoutai APP represents a significant step in enhancing consumer purchasing experience and meeting diverse needs in the high-end liquor market [1][2][3] Group 1: Product Features - The 1L Flying Moutai is positioned as a premium product that embodies the rich cultural heritage and quality of Moutai, produced in the renowned Moutai Town, which offers unique natural conditions for brewing [2] - The packaging design reflects a blend of traditional aesthetics and modern environmental considerations, featuring a handcrafted hard box and eco-friendly bamboo pulp base, aligning with contemporary consumer values [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The introduction of the 1L product aims to shift the industry focus from merely selling liquor to promoting a lifestyle, catering to various consumption scenarios such as family gatherings and business banquets [3] - The iMoutai APP provides a convenient purchasing channel, allowing consumers to buy 1-6 bottles daily during a specified time, enhancing the overall shopping experience and ensuring access to genuine products [3]

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2025 Yabuli China Entrepreneurs Forum is "Embracing AI: Openness and Rationality," focusing on innovation and breakthroughs in China's consumption sector in the AI era [1] - Wang Peizhi, General Manager of Peihua Group, emphasizes the importance of long-term value investment and cultural innovation in reshaping traditional brands, using the liquor industry as a case study [3][5] Group 2 - The liquor industry is currently in a downturn, but there are hidden opportunities for acquiring quality brands during this low cycle, as high-quality liquor has financial attributes that appreciate over time [3] - Peihua Group has completed the acquisition of three time-honored liquor factories in 2023, all of which have a history of over several decades and possess strong cultural narratives and product differentiation [3] - Wang Peizhi proposes a new positioning of liquor as the "best pairing wine for Chinese cuisine," breaking the traditional perception of liquor being solely for social occasions [3] Group 3 - The company focuses on mid-to-high-end pricing strategies, avoiding low-end market competition, and aims to create a competitive barrier through "extreme quality + high cost performance" [4] - Plans for international expansion include opening a pop-up store in New York's Times Square, modeled after "Chinese version of Vodka," targeting overseas Chinese and foreign consumers who accept low-alcohol beverages [4] - Wang Peizhi believes that today's young people will appreciate the taste of aged liquor in 20 years, reflecting a deep understanding of consumer cycles [4] Group 4 - The transformation of traditional industries should not aim to overturn history but rather activate cultural genes with new perspectives, allowing time to become the best ally for brands [5] - Peihua Group's corporate values emphasize a commitment to the liquor industry, long-termism, quality foundation, customer orientation, and co-creation and sharing [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "capacity reduction," which is reflected in the decline of capital expenditure, the abandonment of existing projects, and the guidance for the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises. This capacity reduction is a slow variable that will elevate the long-term profitability capability [3] - The current strong performance of the A-share market suggests a growing focus on long-term positive factors, although the current fundamental expectations and profit-making effects are not yet at bull market levels. The company's market outlook remains unchanged, predicting that 2026-27 will be the core period of the bull market, with signs of index improvement starting in Q4 2025 [3] - The article notes that the capital expenditure of internet platforms may improve, serving as a driving force for stock prices in the domestic AI computing power industry chain. In the short term, the market is highly focused on sectors such as electric equipment, steel, and building materials [3] Group 2 - Service consumption is recovering, with a notable expansion in the price decline of white liquor and pork. Year-on-year growth rates have been continuously rising since the beginning of the year [6]

Group 1 - The production of Chinese liquor has decreased by 6 million tons, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics [1] - Changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations, have led to a decline in the popularity of traditional liquor, as they favor diverse options like craft beer, wine, and flavored beverages [3] - The liquor industry has seen an influx of small producers, resulting in a wide variance in quality, which has led to increased scrutiny and regulation, causing some smaller brands to be eliminated from the market [3] Group 2 - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are not concerned about the production decline, as they focus on quality and brand building, maintaining a strong customer base for high-end liquor [4] - The liquor industry is actively innovating and exploring cross-industry collaborations, such as partnerships with chocolate manufacturers and beauty brands, to create unique products [4] - The decrease in production is viewed as a "major reshuffle" in the liquor industry, where brands that adapt and innovate will thrive, while those that do not will be left behind [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 老铺黄金 (Lao Pu Gold) - **Industry**: Jewelry and Express Delivery Key Points and Arguments Lao Pu Gold's Expansion Plans - Lao Pu Gold plans to open 7-8 new stores in 2025, expected to contribute 1/3 of the revenue for that year, with the remaining 2/3 reflected in 2026, significantly boosting revenue over the next two years [1][2] - The total number of stores is projected to reach 33 by the end of 2026, although the initial target was 50, indicating substantial growth potential [1][4] - Each new store is anticipated to generate approximately 1 billion yuan in revenue [1] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The gold inlay category remains popular in the high-end market, with a market size of around 100 billion yuan for products priced over 10,000 yuan [1][5] - Lao Pu Gold and 周大福 (Chow Tai Fook) hold a strong competitive advantage in this niche, with new brands unlikely to pose a significant threat in the short term [1][5] Express Delivery Industry Performance - During the 618 shopping festival, express delivery volumes increased by 12% year-on-year, with parcel delivery volumes rising by 15.26%, and a rolling monthly average growth rate of about 20% [1][6] - The trend of regular promotional events is beneficial for resource utilization in the express delivery industry, although increased costs from competition may pressure earnings in the first three quarters of the year [1][7] Challenges in the Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry faces challenges of slowing growth and intensified price competition, with May's growth rate declining month-on-month and expected to stabilize around 15% in June and July [1][8] - Attention should be paid to the pricing strategies of leading companies and changes in market share to adjust strategies accordingly [1][8] National Subsidy (国补) Policy Insights - The national subsidy program has been paused, likely due to rapid consumption of quotas and payment system upgrades, but is expected to resume in the future [1][10] - Approximately 1,600 billion yuan has been utilized from the national subsidy, with an annual budget of about 3,000 billion yuan, indicating a potential recovery [1][10] - The impact of the subsidy on sales has been less than expected due to consumer behavior changes and seasonal effects [1][11] Investment Outlook for the White Goods Industry - The investment perspective in the white goods sector has shifted from fundamental-driven to other factors, with passive funds playing a significant role in stock price increases [1][14] - Current price wars in the air conditioning industry are not expected to significantly impact second and third-quarter earnings, with effective inventory management stabilizing profits [1][15] Performance of Fenjiu in the Liquor Industry - Fenjiu is a leading enterprise in the clear fragrance liquor segment, having rapidly grown since the 2017 state-owned enterprise reform, now ranking among the top three in the industry [1][18][19] - The company has a well-rounded product layout across all price ranges, which positions it favorably for future growth compared to competitors like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][20] Additional Important Insights - The express delivery sector's performance during promotional periods indicates a shift towards more sustainable growth patterns, despite the challenges posed by increased competition and cost pressures [1][7] - The potential for the national subsidy to be restructured into consumer voucher forms could influence future purchasing behaviors and market dynamics [1][10]