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宝城期货资讯早班车-20250611
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: China's economy shows a mixed trend with some indicators stable and others indicating weak recovery. Global economic growth is expected to slow, and trade disputes and policy uncertainties remain challenges. [21] - **Commodity Market**: The casting aluminum alloy futures had a positive debut. Metal production and inventory levels vary, and energy - related policies and supply - demand dynamics affect the energy market. Agricultural products have different supply - demand situations. [2][4] - **Financial Market**: The bond market is expected to have a volatile trend, with potential opportunities in credit bonds. The stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, and institutional investors have different stances. The foreign exchange market has fluctuations in exchange rates. [23][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. [1] - In April 2025, social financing scale increment decreased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 showed different growth rates year - on - year. [1] - In May 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year. PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the same period last year. [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On June 10, all contracts of casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main AD2511 contract rising 4.49% to 19,190 yuan/ton. [2] - The first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued on June 10. [2] - On June 10, 43 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 18 had negative basis. [2] - Policies were introduced to promote the high - quality development of the real economy in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [2][3] 3.2.2 Metal - In April, Chile's copper production increased 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons. [4] - On June 9, copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while cobalt and aluminum alloy inventories remained stable. [4][5] - As of June 10, the gold持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF decreased by 0.03% from the previous trading day. [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution". [6] - Zimbabwe plans to ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027. [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will carry out hydrogen energy pilot projects. [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China in July will decrease slightly but remain strong. [8] - The EU plans to impose new sanctions on Russia regarding the Nord Stream pipeline and oil price cap. [8] - Russia extended the ban on selling oil to buyers who comply with the price cap. [9] - EIA adjusted the average price forecasts of WTI and Brent crude oil for this year and next year. [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased through bidding. [12] - India is expected to increase sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. [12] - South Korea's egg prices reached a four - year high in May, and prices are expected to rise in June and August. [12] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 10, the central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting continued on June 10. [15] - Policies were introduced to deepen reforms in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium with science - and - technology - based private enterprises. [16] - New policy - based financial instruments are expected to drive trillions of yuan in investment. [16] - As of June 10, the new issuance scale of land reserve special bonds this year reached 108.348 billion yuan. [16] - Many bond funds are "restricting purchases". [17] - The asset - securitization market has developed significantly this year. [17] - Newly issued savings bonds on June 10 had lower interest rates but were still popular. [18] - As of June 10, the issuance scale of commercial banks' "Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds" this year reached 770.16 billion yuan. [18] - The restructuring plan of Red Star Macalline was approved. [18] - New green and innovative medium - term notes and science - and - technology innovation bonds were successfully issued. [19][20] - Some local governments are strengthening debt and financial supervision. [20][21] - The World Bank and Fitch adjusted their global economic and sovereign rating outlooks. [21] - Japan may adjust its government bond purchase policy. [21] - Some bond - related companies had negative events, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted. [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed slight fluctuations, with an optimistic atmosphere. [23] - Some bonds had price increases and decreases in the exchange - traded bond market. [23] - The convertible bond market had mixed performance. [24] - Most money market interest rates showed different trends. [25] - European and US bond yields had different trends due to various factors. [26][27] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had different changes. [29] - The US dollar index rose slightly, and non - US currencies had mixed performance. [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different investment institutions have different views on the bond market, including the continuation of volatility, potential for interest rate decline, and the attractiveness of credit bonds. [30] - Regarding the stock market, some institutions are optimistic about Chinese stocks, especially technology stocks. [36] 3.4 Stock Market News - A - share indices declined in the afternoon, with TMT sectors adjusting and some sectors rising. [34] - Hong Kong stock indices also declined, with different sector performances. [35] - Hundred - billion private equity funds have increased their positions in A - shares, indicating an optimistic outlook. [35] - UBS maintains a "neutral" stance on Chinese stocks and an "attractive" rating on Chinese technology stocks. [36] - More than 60% of active equity funds have recovered from losses, and there may be opportunities in technology stocks. [36]
每日债市速递 | 中美经贸磋商继续进行
Wind万得· 2025-06-10 22:15
// 债市综述 // (*数据来源:Wind-央行动态PBOC) 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金依旧宽松,存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率再度下行超 1 个 bp ,至 1.36% 附近,七天质押式回购利率下行不足 1 个 bp 。 (IMM) 海外方面,最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.29% 。 (*数据来源:Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏) 3. 同业存单 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称, 6 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1986 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作,操作利率 1.40% ,投标量 1986 亿元,中标 量 1986 亿元。 Wind 数据显示,当日 4545 亿元逆回购到期,据此计算,单日净回笼 2559 亿元。 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 附近,较上日有所下行。 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 (*数据来源:Wind-同业存单-发行结果) | | 1Y | | 2Y | | 3Y | | 5Y | | 7Y | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
周二(6月10日)纽约尾盘,美国10年期基准国债收益率跌0.39个基点,报4.4698%,日内交投于4.4877%-4.4381%区间,整体呈现出U形走势。两年期美债收益率涨1.47个基点,报4.0181%,日内交投于3.9785%-4.0202%区间。
news flash· 2025-06-10 21:16
周二(6月10日)纽约尾盘,美国10年期基准国债收益率跌0.39个基点,报4.4698%,日内交投于 4.4877%-4.4381%区间,整体呈现出U形走势。 两年期美债收益率涨1.47个基点,报4.0181%,日内交投于3.9785%-4.0202%区间。 ...
中长期德债收益率跌超4个基点
news flash· 2025-06-10 16:28
两年期德债收益率跌1.7个基点,报1.847%,日内交投于1.866%-1.842%区间;30年期德债收益率跌4.2 个基点,报2.970%。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌2.318个基点,报+67.458个基点。 周二(6月10日)欧市尾盘,德国10年期国债收益率下跌4.4个基点,报2.523%,全天处于震荡下跌状 态,整体交投于2.564%-2.516%区间。 ...
天风固收|暖风再起,静待下行
2025-06-10 15:26
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and its dynamics in 2024, particularly regarding deposit certificates and the movement of deposits due to seasonal pressures on bank liabilities [1][3] - The bond market has been influenced by two main themes: funding and liability shortages, and fundamental factors, especially the impact of overseas markets [2] Key Points and Arguments - **Monetary Policy and Market Stability**: The central bank's unexpected measures, such as a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, have helped stabilize the funding environment, although ongoing observation of future measures is necessary [3][4] - **Fiscal Policy Impact**: The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, but the overall economic impact remains limited due to stricter self-auditing and economic conditions [5] - **Short-term and Long-term Interest Rates**: Short-term rates are stable, with deposit certificates maintaining rates below 1.7%. Long-term rates are expected to fluctuate based on fundamental expectations and market sentiment, with potential downward pressure if monetary policy is further eased [6][11] - **Future Economic Indicators**: Key factors to monitor include domestic economic recovery, upcoming political meetings, and the results of US-China negotiations, which will influence long-term interest rates [7][8] Additional Important Insights - **Credit Market Dynamics**: The credit bond market in 2025 shows unique characteristics, with short-term bonds sometimes outperforming deposit certificates, while the supply of credit bonds remains constrained [9] - **Liquidity Premiums**: There has been a rebound in credit spreads, with high-grade, pledgeable securities experiencing compressed liquidity premiums. The stable attitude of the central bank has contributed to a smoother market logic [10] - **Investment Recommendations**: There is a recommendation to focus on long-term interest rate compression opportunities and to consider slightly flawed but yield-potential securities in the three to four-year category [11][12] - **Market Performance of Financial Products**: The performance of financial products and public funds has been less favorable compared to last year, with limited space for interest rate declines leading to lower volatility in certain securities [12]
英国债务管理局(DMO):国内投资者占新发行的英国2028年9月指数挂钩国债需求的89.6%。
news flash· 2025-06-10 13:57
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that domestic investors accounted for 89.6% of the demand for the newly issued UK index-linked government bonds maturing in September 2028 [1]
金十图示:2025年06月10日(周二)美盘市场行情一览
news flash· 2025-06-10 13:48
Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1221.420, showing an increase of 5.890 or 0.48% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1065.840, reflecting a decrease of 2.970 or 0.28% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3368.700, up by 22.000 or 0.66% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.800, down by 0.105 or 0.28% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.144, increasing by 0.22% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.353, decreasing by 0.17% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 144.513, down by 0.06% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.653, up by 0.18% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.821, down by 0.08% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 109015.700, down by 1247.320 or 1.13% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 90.880, increasing by 0.150 or 0.17% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2720.590, up by 40.450 or 1.51% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 2.286, down by 0.035 or 1.51% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.987, down by 0.016 or 0.40% [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 4.054, decreasing by 0.033 or 0.81% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.446, down by 0.037 or 0.83% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.911, decreasing by 0.043 or 0.87% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.535, down by 0.098 or 2.12% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.519, decreasing by 0.051 or 1.98% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.198, down by 0.043 or 1.33% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.448, decreasing by 0.043 or 1.23% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.483, up by 0.020 or 1.37% [7]
【财经分析】基本面逻辑整体有利债市表现 多头情绪渐占上风
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 13:47
新华财经上海6月10日电(记者杨溢仁)在央行呵护资金面态度愈发明确、关税调整不确定性尚存的大 背景下,债市多头情绪开始逐渐占据上风。 分析人士认为,6月仍可保持看多方向不变,10年期国债收益率的下限或在1.5%附近,各机构可继续关 注久期策略。 多重利好叠加发酵 近期,债市迎来多重利好"加持"。 首先,是来自基本面的支撑依旧未曾缺席。根据国家统计局公布的数据,2025年5月,CPI同比下降 0.1%,1月至5月CPI累计同比下降0.1%;5月PPI同比下降3.3%,1月至5月PPI累计同比下降2.6%。 "CPI同比持续处于1.0%以下的低位,表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱,这为下半年货币政策持续加力 提供了充分的政策空间。"一位机构交易员向记者表示,"此外,5月PPI同比跌幅较上月大幅扩大0.6个 百分点,一方面是由于新涨价动能持续减弱,另一方面也因翘尾因素对PPI同比的拖累有所加深。鉴于 基本面的复苏难言一蹴而就,则当前债市所处环境依旧'友好',仍可保持'看多'方向。" "利率下行最主要的驱动力为实体回报率的下行,未来几个月物价走弱决定了实体能够接受的融资成本 还将下降。"国盛证券研究所固收首席分析师杨业伟 ...
股债商短期走高“向内看”下市场走出阶段性行情
Datong Securities· 2025-06-10 12:41
证券研究报告|资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 股债商短期走高 "向内看"下市场走出阶段性行情 【20250602-20250608】 核心观点 大类资产总览:股债商短期缓幅上行。 本周,A 股整体呈现上行趋势,在国际重大事件进入博弈期, 场内投资者再度将目光转移至国内,在相对温和平稳的宏观 经济数据带动下,权益市场预期向好,并在"苏超"、5G、 创新药等短期概念的推动下,走出阶段性积极态势。而债市 则在阶段性震荡后再度回稳上行,当前市场仍处于波动期, 部分投资者对债市的青睐仍未结束,市场仍有意愿延续防御 姿态,在此背景下,高位震荡或将是债市进入六月后的主要 走势。大宗商品市场触底反弹,贵金属的强势反弹,以及金 属、能化的波段震荡,或是大宗商品短期回暖上行的主要原 因。 本周 A 股观点:科技板块短期有望成为主线行情。 本周 A 股表现较好,持续上行。具体来看,短期内,权益市 场外部表现平稳,中美贸易竞争相关事项已从情绪期步入稳 定期,后续仍需关注中美谈判核心表现。因此,场内投资者 关注目标正在从国际转向国内,宏观经济数据、短期热点事 项或将成为影响市场的主要推手。 A 股配置建议:短期来看, ...