投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-06 宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压⼒，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，⽇盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性⾛弱，⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但⾼度有限。 ⿊⾊：宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压力，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，日盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性走弱，目前电炉和部分高炉已开始亏损，铁水产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但高度有限。 1、铁元素方面，供应端海外增量释放不及预期，全年累计发运同比 下降，且新项目爬坡放缓，全年增量下调；需求端钢企盈利率持稳， 铁水微降，预计短期可 ...

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures fluctuate and decline. In June, supply and demand are expected to remain weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type reclaimed feedstock, P - type cauliflower feedstock, N - type granular silicon, etc., remained unchanged on June 5 compared to June 4. The basis of N - type feedstock and cauliflower feedstock increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 dropped by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73% to 9.61 million tons. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained unchanged. Silicon wafer production in May decreased by 0.50% to 58.06 GM. In April, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and net exports increased by 42.57% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Industrial silicon futures opened low, fluctuated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand is expected to recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high increase in supply. Supply is expected to grow significantly, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various types of industrial silicon decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 - 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, with significant decreases in Xinjiang and increases in Yunnan and Sichuan. The organic silicon DMC production increased by 6.48%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. The national industrial silicon start - up rate decreased by 11.37% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.37%, Yunnan's increased by 1.62%, and Sichuan's increased by 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.34%, order inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night, but the fundamentals remained unchanged. The market sentiment was weak, and there was still pressure to accumulate inventory in the long - term. It is recommended to consider the 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term high - selling operations for the far - month contracts [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night. The spot market was weak, and there was pressure to accumulate inventory after June. It is expected that the price will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly in the short - term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, while the price in South China decreased by 0.76%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply Volume**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased by 0.08%, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints In the short - term, the macro - economic recovery drives the rubber price to rebound. However, with the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14000. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber increased by 1.12%, and the basis increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and domestic tire production and exports decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Data Glass - **Spot Prices**: As of June 5, 2025, the prices of 5mm large - plate glass in different regions showed various trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass at Shahe Anquan decreased from 1134.0 on May 29 to 1121.0, with a weekly change of - 13.0; Wuhan Changli's price dropped from 1140.0 to 1080.0, a weekly change of - 60.0 [2]. - **Futures Contracts**: The FG09 contract price decreased from 985.0 on May 29 to 963.0 on June 5, a weekly change of - 22.0; the FG01 contract price dropped from 1049.0 to 1018.0, a weekly change of - 31.0 [2]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The FG 9 - 1 spread was - 55.0 on June 5, with a weekly change of 9.0; the 09 Hebei basis was 78.0, with a weekly change of - 50.0 [2]. - **Profits**: The North China coal - fired profit decreased from 236.5 to 219.9, a weekly change of - 16.6; the 09FG盘面 natural gas profit decreased from - 372.9 to - 394.9, a weekly change of - 22.0 [2]. - **Sales and Production Ratios**: The sales - to - production ratios were 101 in Shahe, 116 in Hubei, 90 in East China, and 105 in South China [2]. Soda Ash - **Spot Prices**: On June 5, 2025, the price of Shahe heavy - soda ash was 1250.0, with a daily change of - 10.0; Qinghai heavy - soda ash was 1030.0, with a weekly change of - 20.0 [2]. - **Futures Contracts**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1253.0 on May 29 to 1236.0 on June 5, a weekly change of - 17.0; the SA09 contract price was 1203.0, with no weekly change [2]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The SA09 - 01 spread was 7.0 on June 5, with a weekly change of 5.0; the SA09 Shahe basis was 47.0, with a weekly change of 0.0 [2]. - **Profits**: The North China ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 101.3 to - 106.3, a weekly change of 1.3; the North China combined - soda process profit decreased from 14.4 to - 10.1, a weekly change of - 22.1 [2]. - **Inventory**: The delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 12,400 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged [2].

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月05日 重点板块数据跟踪： 1）水泥：上周全国水泥价跌 0.8%，沪苏浙粤桂黔降 10-20 元/吨，云南 昆明涨 20 元/吨。5 月底需求略增，出货率升至 47.8%。需求偏弱致多 地价格续跌，但长三角熟料涨价，计划 6 月水泥涨价，鄂赣等地跟涨， 后期价格或企稳反弹。2）玻璃：上周国内浮法玻璃均价 1270.96 元/吨， 环比跌 0.58%，供应端新增产线加剧市场观望，需求受高温多雨抑制， 行业亏损扩大，短期价格或继续承压。光伏玻璃市场交投清淡，终端需 求疲软致组件开工率下滑，厂家库存累积，2.0mm/3.2mm 镀膜面板价格 分别跌至 13 元/㎡和 21 元/㎡，环比跌幅扩大。纯碱价格走弱使成本支 撑不足，利润空间进一步压缩，市场整体维持弱势运行态势。3）玻纤： 上周无碱粗纱市场延续跌势，2400tex 缠绕纱主流价 3500-3800 元/吨， 均价 3696.5 元/吨，周跌 0.62%，同比降 4.3%。北方低价成交增多，市 场灵活议价。电子纱 G75 报价 8800-9200 元/吨，电子布 3.8-4.4 元/米。 投资建议： 建材方面，国际贸易冲突加剧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [5][9][16] - Specific product ratings: - Steel: oscillating [7] - Iron ore: oscillating [7][9] - Scrap steel: oscillating [8] - Coke: oscillating weakly [8][10] - Coking coal: oscillating weakly [11][13] - Glass: oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: oscillating weakly [12][14] - Ferrosilicon: oscillating [15][16] - Silicomanganese: oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction in the coking coal market has increased, and the prices of the black series have rebounded as a whole. However, due to the approaching off - season of domestic construction and manufacturing industries and the under - expected "rush for exports", the demand is difficult to increase, so the rebound height is limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy orientation [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Black Building Materials Market - **Supply and demand situation**: The domestic demand is seasonally weakening, and the "rush for exports" in the manufacturing industry is under - expected. The off - season trend remains unchanged. Electric furnaces and some blast furnaces have started to make losses, and the molten iron is expected to decline, but the overall profitability provides some support to the cost side [2][3][5] - **Rebound driver**: Low valuation combined with news speculation brings rebound drive, but the height is limited [2][3][5] 3.2 Specific Product Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - **Core logic**: The prices of raw materials rebounded, but the fundamentals changed little. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and there are still expectations of tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand expectation is still weak. The molten iron is at a high level, and the steel output has increased. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week, and the inventory has decreased, but the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand suppress the futures price [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved this week, but the expectation is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Core logic**: The overseas supply increment is lower than expected, the cumulative annual shipment has decreased year - on - year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down. The steel enterprises' profitability and order status are still good, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small. Affected by the coking coal news, the iron ore price has also increased slightly [3][7] - **Outlook**: If the molten iron can stop falling around 240,000 tons per day as expected and the macro sentiment warms up, the price is expected to continue to rise, but the upside space is limited, and the 09 contract will oscillate in a wide range [7] 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - **Core logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume is low, and the electric furnace valley - electricity is in a loss state. The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded slightly, and the total inventory has decreased slightly. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has decreased. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly [8] - **Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace valley - electricity loss has intensified. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [8] 3.2.4 Coke - **Core logic**: The expectation of coking coal supply tightening has increased, but the actual supply - demand remains loose. The supply of coke is stable, but the inventory has accumulated. The demand is weakening, and the cost support is insufficient [8][10] - **Outlook**: The coking coal price is continuously falling, and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the short - term upward trend of the futures price will be difficult to sustain [10] 3.2.5 Coking Coal - **Core logic**: The expectation of supply tightening has increased due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase. However, the actual supply is still loose, the demand is expected to decline, and the upstream inventory pressure is increasing [4][11] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of coking coal remains loose, and the high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [11] 3.2.6 Glass - **Core logic**: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, the deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. The daily melting volume is stable, and the price is low, which inhibits the resumption of production. The inventory in the upstream is expected to increase, and the inventory in the middle reaches has decreased. The futures price oscillates due to news and sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The price cut of Hubei's spot goods leads the futures price to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the price - cut range of Hubei's manufacturers, and the short - term view is oscillating weakly [12] 3.2.7 Soda Ash - **Core logic**: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by the coal market news, the price has fluctuated, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [12][14] - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [14] 3.2.8 Ferrosilicon - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of ferrosilicon has rebounded from a low level. The supply has increased slightly, but the demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is cautious [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The cost may still have a drag effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel procurement and production situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] 3.2.9 Silicomanganese - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of silicomanganese has rebounded from a low level. The cost is weakly stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [14] - **Outlook**: The supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand is becoming looser. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell due to cost inversion. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although the overall profit on the supply - side has declined, natural soda ash projects maintain high profits. Traditional backward - capacity maintenance has intensified, and the expansion of natural soda ash project capacity has led to an increase in production and capacity utilization, resulting in significant supply pressure. On the demand side, while futures and spot traders are active and restocking is sufficient, the decline in soda ash spot prices is expected to lead to a slowdown in demand and a decrease in the de - stocking speed. The main downstream industries of soda ash, such as float glass and photovoltaic glass, are not optimistic. Therefore, it is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract after a rebound [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the resumption of production lines in some areas has increased the weekly output, but the overall industry profit is poor, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is limited, so the subsequent resumption of production may decline. On the demand side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and demand will weaken further in the traditional off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are unstable, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs. The increase in the inventory of automobile glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure. It is expected that there is still upward momentum in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a short - term rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 240 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 22 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 963 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 1203 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is 7 yuan, with a decrease of 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 contract spread of glass is - 55 yuan, with a decrease of 3 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 5 yuan, with a decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of glass is 68 yuan, with a decrease of 46 yuan [2]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipt**: The position of the soda ash main contract is 1443208 lots, with a decrease of 65754 lots; the position of the glass main contract is 1552205 lots, with an increase of 107933 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 227449 lots, with a decrease of 52982 lots; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 220121 lots, with a decrease of 45869 lots. The soda ash exchange warehouse receipt is 3340 tons, with an increase of 1278 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of East China light soda ash is 1340 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1285 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 78.57%, with a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.68%, with an increase of 0.34 percentage points [2]. - **Production Capacity and Inventory**: The in - production capacity of glass is 15.63 million tons/year, with no change; the number of in - production glass production lines is 225, with an increase of 2. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 162.43 million tons, with an increase of 2.2 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6766.2 million heavy - boxes, with a decrease of 10.7 million heavy - boxes [2]. 下游情况 - **Real - Estate**: The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 17835.84 million square meters, with an increase of 4839.38 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 15647.85 million square meters, with an increase of 2587.58 million square meters [2]. 行业消息 - Multiple industry news is reported, including the organization of the first - batch pilot work of new - type power system construction by the National Energy Administration, the research and deployment of promoting the development of the artificial - intelligence industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the preliminary estimate of 124 million new - energy passenger - vehicle wholesale sales in May by the Passenger Car Association with a year - on - year increase of 38%, etc. [2] 宏观情况 - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May is 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, and it has fallen below the critical point for the first time since last October [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [5][77]. Core Viewpoints - The price of cement clinker in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by 30 CNY/ton, with plans for a similar increase in cement prices in early June. This price hike is expected to stabilize market expectations and lead to price recovery in the following months [1][3]. - The issuance of special bonds reached 1.63 trillion CNY from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, completing 37.1% of the annual quota. The issuance in May alone was 443.17 billion CNY, a month-on-month increase of 92.6% [1]. - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand expansion policies amid escalating international trade conflicts, with limited further deterioration anticipated in the sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices fell by 0.8% last week, with regional variations showing declines of 10-20 CNY/ton in several areas, while prices in Kunming, Yunnan, increased by 20 CNY/ton. The average shipment rate rose to 47.8% due to slight demand increases [2][23]. - The Yangtze River Delta's clinker price increase may lead to a stabilization or slight rebound in cement prices in the near future [24]. Glass - The average price of domestic float glass was 1270.96 CNY/ton, down 0.58% from the previous period. The market remains weak due to high temperatures and rain affecting demand, leading to increased industry losses [2][35]. - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing weak trading activity, with prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels dropping to 13 CNY/m² and 21 CNY/m², respectively [43]. Fiberglass - The market for non-alkali fiberglass continues to decline, with mainstream prices for 2400tex winding yarn at 3500-3800 CNY/ton, averaging 3696.5 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.62% [2][45]. - The electronic yarn G75 is priced between 8800-9200 CNY/ton, with stable pricing expected in the short term [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and renovation demands, such as Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others [3][4]. - The report highlights potential opportunities in the construction sector, particularly for state-owned enterprises involved in major engineering projects, such as China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [4].

1. Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In the context of expected increased supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to show a weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe the performance at the 13,000 level, while paying attention to the raw material supply situation in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 255 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of cup rubber on the international market was 44.55 Thai baht/kg, down 1.40 Thai baht/kg from June 2; the price of glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg, down 1.50 Thai baht/kg from June 2 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the 9 - 1 spread was - 832, down 25 from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 25, the same as the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was 860, up 25 from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 1057,000 tons, down 435,000 tons from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 19,410,000 tons, down 1,520,000 tons from the previous month; India's production was 454,000 tons, down 76,000 tons from the previous month; China's production was 581,000 tons, up 423,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 78.25%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.80%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous week. In April, the domestic tire production was 102,002,000 pieces, down 5,444,000 pieces from the previous month; the tire export volume was 57,390,000 pieces, down 4,900,000 pieces from the previous month. The total import volume of natural rubber in April was 523,200 tons, down 70,900 tons from the previous month; the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 690,000 tons, down 70,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 614,584 tons, up 385 tons from the previous day; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 17,641 tons, down 25,903 tons from the previous week [1]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - **Glass**: The glass price will continue to be under pressure, oscillate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. If the maintenance situation is good, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For trading, consider the 7 - 9 positive spread in the inter - month and short - sell on the rebound of the far - month contract for short - term operations [2]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: On June 4, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,290 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,070 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the South China quotation was 1,320 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Glass 2505 was 1,098 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Glass 2509 was 988 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 05 basis was 62 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: On June 4, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,380 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,350 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Northwest quotation was 1,080 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Soda Ash 2509 was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the 05 basis was 229 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply Volume**: On May 30, the soda ash operating rate was 78.57%, down 0.06 percentage points from May 23; the weekly soda ash output was 685,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from May 23; the float glass daily melting volume was 157,700 tons, up 1,000 tons from May 23; the photovoltaic daily melting volume was 99,990 tons, the same as May 23 [2]. - **Inventory**: On May 30, the glass factory warehouse was 67,762,000 weight - cases, down 7,000 weight - cases from May 23; the soda ash factory warehouse was 162,430 tons, up 2,200 tons from May 23; the soda ash delivery warehouse was 34,750 tons, down 1,800 tons from May 23; the glass factory's soda ash inventory days were 18.1 days, the same as before [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to the difficulty of significant increase in demand and the expected growth in production. However, the rise in raw material prices is beneficial to strengthen the cost support, and the concentrated short - position closing will bring a wave of price increase [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On June 4, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 7,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the 2506 - 2507 spread was - 260, down 270 from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 10, up 5 from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 spread was - 10, the same as the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons from the previous month; Xinjiang's output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons from the previous month; Yunnan's output was 13,500 tons, up 1,200 tons from the previous month; Sichuan's output was 11,300 tons, up 6,700 tons from the previous month. The national operating rate was 51.23%, down 6.57 percentage points from the previous month; Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.74%, down 17.31 percentage points from the previous month; Yunnan's operating rate was 18.13%, down 1.84 percentage points from the previous month; Sichuan's operating rate was 7.30%, up 6.81 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory was 190,100 tons, up 2,700 tons from the previous week; the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory was 24,700 tons, up 600 tons from the previous week; the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory was 22,800 tons, up 300 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 589,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory was 309,000 tons, down 4,400 tons from the previous day; the non - warehouse - receipt inventory was 280,000 tons, up 11,400 tons from the previous day [3]. 4. Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. However, due to the expected contraction of the supply side, if the production decreases and the supply - side pressure eases, the inventory is expected to be gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 4, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon was 30,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the price of PS2506 was 35,055 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,935 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2507 - PS2508 spread was 850 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly, the silicon wafer output was 134,000 CM, up 1,000 CM from the previous week; the polysilicon output was 21,600 tons, up 100 tons from the previous week. Monthly, in May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, up 700 tons from the previous month; in April, the polysilicon import volume was 2,900 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month; the export volume was 2,000 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous day; the silicon wafer inventory was 185,700 CM, down 3,800 CM from the previous day; the polysilicon warehouse receipts were 1,920 lots, up 350 lots from the previous day [4].

建信期货分析称，需求端，玻璃需求端受季节性因素影响明显。当前正值传统梅雨季，建筑施工活动受 限，玻璃终端需求持续走弱。同时，行业中游库存处于高位，成为价格上行的主要阻力，而玻璃产能去 化进程缓慢，导致后期库存存在进一步累积压力。下游方面，当前国内房地产竣工环节尚未出现实质性 改善，行业下行趋势仍在延续。尽管市场对增量政策落地保持期待，但预计政策效果更多体现为短期市 场情绪提振，难以从根本上扭转供需失衡局面。综合上述因素，预计玻璃期货主力合约短期内将维持低 位震荡走势。 中辉期货表示，目前玻璃开工率和日熔量低位回升，原料纯碱和燃料煤炭价格持续创新低，玻璃成本重 心下移，进一步拖累盘面价格，抄底仍不具有安全边际。 6月5日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报983.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，玻璃主力最高触及985.00元，下方探低957.00元，跌幅达1.34%附近。 目前来看，玻璃行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于玻璃后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 华联期货指出，上周玻璃2条产线复产点火，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，开工率环比小幅上升，周熔 量延续增长 ...