Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the sales of new homes in first-tier cities weakened significantly. On Friday, Beijing introduced new property market policies, and it is expected that other first-tier cities will also introduce a new round of property market policies successively. The price of rebar fluctuated, the price of cement continued to decline, and the focus was on key industries to combat excessive competition. The travel intensity remained strong, and the SCFI continued to decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales in First-Tier Cities Weakened Significantly - This week (August 1 - August 7), the transaction volume of new homes decreased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the year-on-year decline slightly narrowed. Specifically, the transaction area of new homes in first-tier cities was significantly weaker than that of the same period last year, while that in second, third, and fourth-tier cities was slightly lower than last year. The transaction area of 20 key cities monitored by Wind decreased by 27.18% week-on-week and 14.49% year-on-year [7]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes decreased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the year-on-year performance varied. Among key cities, on a week-on-week basis, the transaction area of each city decreased significantly compared to the previous period. On a year-on-year basis, except for Shanghai (3.83%) and Shenzhen (3.88%), the transaction volume in other cities was weaker than last year [26]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - This week, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range, with the cost side supported by strict inspections of coking coal overproduction, but the demand side remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price of glass decreased as the sentiment of combating excessive competition subsided, and the price lacked upward momentum due to weak demand. The cement price index continued to decline, affected by weather and demand, and local price cuts could not offset the inventory pressure. The price of asphalt decreased, possibly affected by fluctuations in the cost of crude oil [2]. 3. Production: The Utilization Rates of Production Capacity Showed Differentiated Performance - This week, the utilization rates of production capacity showed differentiated performance. The utilization rates of coking enterprises and steel mills' blast furnaces increased, while those of petroleum asphalt, polyester filament, and PTA decreased significantly. The utilization rate of automobile tire production remained basically flat [2]. 4. Consumption: Strong Travel Momentum - In terms of consumption, automobile sales and domestic flights were stronger than the seasonal average, subway ridership was in line with the seasonal average, and movie box office was lower than the seasonal average [2]. 5. Exports: SCFI and BDI Declined - This week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined, while the CRB Spot Index remained basically flat. The lack of further growth momentum in transportation demand led to continued adjustments in market freight rates [2]. 6. Prices: Pork Prices Declined, Vegetable Prices Rose Significantly, and Oil Prices Declined - This week, pork prices declined, vegetable prices rose significantly, and oil prices declined. The sharp increase in vegetable prices was mainly due to floods caused by heavy rainfall in the north, which destroyed vegetable fields and reduced the supply of vegetables. The decrease in crude oil prices was mainly due to the expected decline in global trade demand, increased supply surplus, and the subsidence of geopolitical risk premiums [2].

External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S.[5] - The overall export performance is weakening, with container throughput significantly decreasing and the growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. declining by 15.6% year-on-year[19][33]. Internal Demand - Sales of new and second-hand homes are experiencing a widening decline, with new home sales in August showing a year-on-year drop that is expanding[8]. - The sales growth rate of passenger vehicles has also decreased, with retail and wholesale sales both falling in July[8]. - Despite the downturn in housing and automotive sales, summer tourism consumption remains strong, with box office revenues exceeding 7.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the same period last year[8]. Commodity Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are under pressure, reflecting a complex interplay of market factors[8]. - The average price of cement in China has increased, while the prices of rebar and glass have decreased[8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing new orders have decreased year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in industrial activity[8]. - The labor market in the U.S. is weakening, which is raising expectations for interest rate cuts[8].

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil price fluctuations, while copper and gold prices are expected to rise [2][6] Domestic Demand - Sales of new homes, second-hand homes, and passenger cars are all experiencing a decline in growth rates. In August, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales decreased in volume but increased in price. The market is in a seasonal downturn, compounded by internal competition, with July passenger car sales growth rates for both retail and wholesale declining. The average sales price of home appliances has mostly decreased [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance continue to exceed last year's levels, driven by popular films, with summer box office revenue surpassing 7.7 billion yuan. Tourism consumption remains strong, with hotel occupancy rates rising and revenue per available room increasing, consistently above last year’s figures. Additionally, inbound tourism is performing well, with the Google "China Travel" search index reaching new highs, and international flight operations continuing to rise compared to last year [2] External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S. Former President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, as well as small tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with future rates potentially rising to 250%. Furthermore, a 25% punitive tariff will be applied to Indian purchases of Russian oil [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a decline in CCFI shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput. The growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. is decreasing, and shipping volumes continue to decline. Traditional transshipment regions, such as Southeast Asian ports, are also seeing a year-on-year decrease in docking volumes. In June, new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell year-on-year, with transportation equipment manufacturing being a significant drag [3] Production - Weather factors are impacting prices, with high temperatures suppressing demand. However, steel mill profitability is on the rise, and production growth rates for sample steel mills continue to increase. The industry’s self-imposed production cuts have had limited effects, leading to a decrease in rebar prices this week. The glass industry, previously influenced by internal competition, has also seen price declines due to limited changes in fundamentals [4] - Due to typhoons and heavy rainfall, cement shipment rates are low, but national average cement prices have risen this week. However, the direct supply of cement to construction sites has decreased week-on-week, and the funding availability rate for sample construction sites has also declined, indicating overall weak downstream demand [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants has increased this week due to sustained high temperatures, while frequent rainfall has restricted coal production and transportation in major producing areas, leading to a slight decrease in coal market supply and a continued rise in thermal coal prices [5] Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are declining. Weakness in the U.S. labor market has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold prices. A mining accident in Chile, combined with expectations for rate cuts, has driven copper prices upward. Conversely, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation and continued OPEC+ production increases have put downward pressure on oil prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - Supply: Labor return in Cambodia and disrupted rubber tapping in Thailand may lead to a stronger raw material price expectation. Attention should be paid to raw material supply during the peak season [1]. - Demand: Replacement demand shows decent performance, and market trading activity is expected to increase with the implementation of price policies. Winter snow - tire agents are starting to stock up, and order activity is expected to rise in the next period. If raw material supply is smooth during the peak season, consider short - selling opportunities [1]. Log Industry - Supply: Supply pressure may increase. The number of arriving ships at ports will increase this week [3]. - Demand: In August, high - temperature weather leads to a market off - season. Future shipments are expected to decrease, and spot prices remain under pressure. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate widely between 800 - 850 [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: This week, production has rebounded significantly, inventory has increased, and the futures market has weakened. The supply - demand situation shows an obvious surplus. After the second - quarter photovoltaic installation rush, photovoltaic glass capacity growth has slowed, and float glass capacity is stable with future supply - demand pressure. There is no growth expectation for demand. Consider short - selling on price rebounds during the traditional maintenance season in August [4]. - Glass: The futures market has weakened significantly, and market sentiment has declined. After the previous price increase, inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - men, and there may be a rush to sell. Deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass demand side faces pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance. Track policy implementation and downstream stocking performance in August [4]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Supply: Pay attention to the resumption plans of large enterprises in Xinjiang and the progress of the anti - cut - throat competition meeting in the southwest. Under the anti - cut - throat competition policy, the overall price center of industrial silicon may move up. If raw material costs such as coal rise, the price center of industrial silicon is expected to increase [5]. - Price Range: The main price fluctuation range in August may be between 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price falls to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon Industry - Supply - Demand: In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon are increasing, but the supply growth rate is higher. Domestic polysilicon production in July was about 10.78 million tons, and weekly production increased by 4% to 2.65 million tons. August production is expected to be around 12.5 million tons [6]. - Price Strategy: The main price fluctuation range may be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips and buying put options on price increases [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69% [1]. - The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1125, a decline of 13.07% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, a growth of 44.23% [1]. - Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, a decline of 12.03% [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 5798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91% [1]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840.0, a decline of 0.06% [3]. Supply - In June, port shipping volume increased by 37,000 cubic meters to 1.76 million cubic meters, a growth of 2.12% [3]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily log shipment was 64,200 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.84% [4]. - The glass 2505 contract decreased by 10 to 1309, a decline of 0.76% [4]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [4]. - The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 12 to 1412, a decline of 0.84% [4]. Supply - Soda ash production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons, a growth of 6.42% [4]. - Float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons, with a 0.00% change [4]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - boxes to 61.847 million weight - boxes, an increase of 3.95% [4]. - Soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - East China's oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [5]. - The basis of S15530 increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44% [5]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 41,400 tons to 300,800 tons, a decline of 12.10% [5]. - Xinjiang's industrial silicon production decreased by 43,300 tons to 167,500 tons, a decline of 20.55% [5]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02% [5]. - Social inventory increased by 7000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [6]. - The N - type material basis increased by 1235 to - 3110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract decreased by 1235 to 20110, a decline of 2.41% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 29,000 tons to 294,000 tons, a growth of 10.94% [6]. - Monthly polysilicon production increased by 49,000 tons to 1.01 million tons, a growth of 5.10% [6]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75% [6]. - Silicon wafer inventory increased by 9600 GW to 19,110 GW, an increase of 5.29% [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [3] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [3] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [5] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Supply news has caused fluctuations in the black market, with glass and soda ash showing inventory accumulation and double silicon having high production willingness [1][4] - In the long - term, glass supply and demand remain relatively loose, and soda ash may face increasing inventory pressure [1][2] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have high supply and demand levels, but their prices are affected by multiple factors [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the glass futures market had narrow - range fluctuations. The opening rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, a 0.34% increase from the previous period, and the manufacturer inventory was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a 2.348 million heavy - box increase [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: There is no policy - based contraction in glass supply, and real - estate has dragged down the rigid demand. Speculative demand has increased, and the factory inventory has slightly accumulated, being at a high level. In the long - term, supply and demand are loose [1] - Strategy: Expect a sideways movement [3] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market trended weakly. The capacity utilization rate was 85.42%, a 5.15% increase from the previous period, production was 744,700 tons, a 44,900 - ton increase, and inventory was 1.8651 million tons, a 69,300 - ton increase [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: Soda ash production is at a high level. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is relatively restricted, but it may further increase in the future. The photovoltaic industry has a production - cut expectation, so soda ash consumption may weaken, and inventory pressure will rise [1][2] - Strategy: Expect a weakly sideways movement [3] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market trended weakly. The downstream procurement was normal, with limited price - pressing. The northern market price was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was around 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton [4] - Supply and Demand Logic: Recently, the enthusiasm for silicomanganese production has been high, with both supply and demand at high levels. The manufacturer inventory has decreased significantly compared to the previous period and is at a medium level in recent years. The Australian manganese ore shipment has basically recovered, and after the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [4] - Strategy: Bearish [5] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the increase in ferrosilicon futures declined. The market sentiment worsened, but the spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [4] - Supply and Demand Logic: Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, and the apparent demand is decreasing. Enterprises have made profits, and demand remains resilient. The factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the long - term, ferrosilicon capacity is relatively loose [4] - Strategy: Bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "shock". Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all have a mid - term outlook of "shock" [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand performance of the black building materials industry is weak, and the prices are in high - level shock. Although the fundamentals of individual varieties change little, there are still certain support factors, and the prices may rebound before the spot pressure appears. The market is mainly dominated by capital behavior, and it is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks. Subsequently, the implementation of policies and terminal demand performance should be mainly concerned [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but after the typhoon disturbance, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, and the iron ore port area's total inventory increased, with a limited overall inventory accumulation range [2]. - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen to the highest level in the same period in the past three years. Due to routine maintenance of steel mills, the molten iron output decreased slightly, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2]. - **Outlook**: With limited bearish driving forces in the fundamentals, the future price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [2]. - **Demand**: After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [2]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Subsequently, regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal import conditions should be concerned [2]. 3.3 Alloys Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: The price of coke has been continuously increased, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The manganese ore market is more wait - and - see, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and the port ore price remains firm [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished products remains stable at a high level. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, in an environment of profit repair, the resumption process of manufacturers continues to advance, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser [3]. - **Outlook**: The contradictions in the current spot fundamentals are limited. In the short term, the price of manganese silicon is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector [3]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to accelerate the recovery. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production - restriction requirements [15]. - **Demand**: The output of steel products remains stable at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, due to tight supply, magnesium plants' price - holding sentiment remains strong, but high - level transactions in the market are relatively cold, and the game between upstream and downstream in the magnesium market continues [15]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the price needs to be viewed with caution, and the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs should be concerned [15]. 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and 1 production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline of the futures price, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the middle - stream shipments have increased, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply pattern has not changed. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. The output is running at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. Some manufacturers' production has recovered today, and the output is expected to continue to increase in the future [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass. The expected daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, falling below 90,000 tons this week, with the current daily melting volume at 89,800 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has weakened, and the overall downstream demand is poor, mainly for periodic restocking [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, after the rapid decline of the price, it is at a discount to the spot price, and it is expected to fluctuate in the future. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Some steel mills have resumed production, and there is a transfer of molten iron. The output of rebar has increased, and the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased [8]. - **Demand**: Affected by the weakening of the typhoon, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, but the inventory continues to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated, showing off - season characteristics [8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution sentiment in the steel and coal industries is still high. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, but the inventory is low, and there are still production - restriction disturbances before the military parade. The short - term futures price still has support. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the steel mills' production - restriction situation and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: This week, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the willingness to ship is low. The arrival volume of scrap steel has continued to decline [9]. - **Demand**: The profit of electric furnaces is good, and the daily consumption has increased to a high level in the same period. In terms of blast furnaces, the molten iron output has decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steelmaking has also decreased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process steelmaking has increased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand has increased. The fundamentals have strengthened marginally, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.8 Coke - **Supply**: After the full implementation of the fifth round of price increases, the profits of coking enterprises have been alleviated, and their production starts have improved. The coke output has temporarily stabilized [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a high level. Upstream coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and their inventory has been continuously reduced. Mid - stream futures - spot traders have gradually released their goods, and the arrival of goods at downstream steel mills has improved [9]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the short - term price still has support. Some coking enterprises still have the intention to increase the price for the sixth round. Subsequently, the possible military parade production - restriction policy should be concerned [9]. 3.9 Coking Coal - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [11]. - **Demand**: The coke output has temporarily stabilized, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [11]. - **Outlook**: Under the influence of over - production verification of coal mines, the recovery of coking coal supply is expected to be slow. With the poor supply expectation, the market sentiment has warmed up. In the short term, the futures price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall [11].

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - Monitor the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in major producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69%. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1,125, a decline of 13.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 5 to 1,095, an increase of 0.46% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production was 392,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.23%. Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.03%. India's production was 62,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.82%. China's production was 103,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased by 5,798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,318 tons to 39,716 tons, an increase of 6.20% [1]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure may increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the spot price is still under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 800 - 850 [3]. 2. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The price of Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5. The price of Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840, a decline of 0.06%. The price of Log 2601 remained unchanged at 841.5 [3]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.183. The import theoretical cost increased by 13.84 yuan to 818.70 yuan [3]. Supply - In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong increased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 56,000 cubic meters to 960,000 cubic meters, a decline of 5.55% [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters. The demand last week increased by 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Core Viewpoint Soda Ash - The supply is in excess. The spot sales are weak. Consider short - selling at high prices in the short - term and monitor the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [4]. Glass - The futures price has weakened, and the market sentiment has declined. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. Hold short positions and monitor the implementation of policies and the stocking performance of downstream industries [4]. 2. Summary by Directory Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased, while the price in Central China remained unchanged. The prices of Glass 2505 and Glass 2509 decreased [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of Soda Ash 2505 and Soda Ash 2509 decreased [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased from 80.27% to 85.41%, and the weekly production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - cases to 61.847 million weight - cases, an increase of 3.95%. The soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton in August. Consider buying at low prices when the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control and risk management [5]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44%. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 to - 25, a decline of 66.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.10%. The organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.54% [5]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02%. The social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon price fluctuates and declines. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices [6]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material increased by 1,235 to - 3,110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 1,235 to 20,110, a decline of 2.41%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2,075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.02 GW, a year - on - year increase of 9.27%. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [6]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 960,000 pieces to 19.11 million pieces, an increase of 5.29% [6].

黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].