Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on "core assets" in investment strategies, particularly those that leverage China's technological and manufacturing advantages to expand into global markets [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Logic - "Small businesses" do not equate to "small market capitalization"; rather, they refer to business models with weak correlation to national economy and people's livelihood [3]. - Industries such as liquor, beverages, home appliances, building materials, auto parts, new consumption, and cultural media are considered "small businesses" that can still generate large market capitalizations [3]. - The article identifies companies that can showcase China's technological advantages while maintaining a low risk of disruption as a key long-term investment direction [4]. Group 2: Industry Characteristics - Certain industries can effectively utilize China's manufacturing clusters and engineer advantages, with low likelihood of product category disruption or iteration being surpassed [4]. - Leading companies in these sectors have established wide economic moats, benefiting from scale, cost advantages, and continuous incremental innovation [4]. - The current geopolitical context, including the return of core manufacturing to the U.S. and the reduction of trade deficits with developing countries, suggests that China's technological and manufacturing advantages are unlikely to be replaced or surpassed in the next 30 to 50 years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of new consumption trends in China, particularly among younger consumers, and contrasts them with traditional consumption patterns, emphasizing the sustainability and structural nature of these new demands [3][4][6]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption trends, represented by products like blind boxes and cultural creative goods, are rapidly gaining popularity among younger consumers, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [3][4]. - The demand for new consumption is driven by both functional and emotional value, with consumers seeking products that enhance their quality of life and provide emotional satisfaction [5][6]. - The current economic environment has led to a structural change in consumer demand, where consumers are willing to pay more for products that offer higher functionality and emotional value [6][7]. Group 2: Traditional Consumption - Traditional consumption categories such as liquor, food, and household appliances continue to have stable demand due to their essential nature, although their growth may slow down as market saturation occurs [7][8]. - The value provided by traditional consumption remains significant, even if the growth rate declines, as consumers' expectations for a better quality of life persist [7][8]. - Traditional brands can learn from new consumption trends to better engage with younger consumers and adapt their marketing strategies [9][10]. Group 3: Sustainability of Consumption Trends - The sustainability of new consumption trends is supported by historical patterns, where similar trends have emerged in the past, indicating a long-term demand for collectible and emotionally resonant products [6][8]. - The success of new consumption products often depends on their social attributes and the ability to create a strong brand connection with consumers, which can lead to sustained growth [10][11]. - The potential for cross-generational appeal exists if the products maintain their relevance and adapt to changing consumer preferences over time [11][12]. Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions in Consumer Brands - Mergers and acquisitions can enhance competitive strength in the consumer sector, especially in a stable market where companies seek new growth avenues [18][19]. - Successful acquisitions depend on the long-term profitability of the acquired business and the ability to integrate resources without compromising existing operations [20][21]. - The strategic alignment of acquired brands with the parent company's goals can lead to sustained growth and market expansion [19][21].

超配价值和低位成长 ——行业配置主线探讨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ‹ 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略专题报告（深度 Table_ReportType] ） | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | 联系电话：+86 13585643916 | | 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | | 李畅 策略分析师 | 执业编号：S1500523070001 联系电话：+86 18817552575 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [超配价值和低位成长 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 15 日 核心结论： ➢ 5 月之后，随着年报、一季报披露窗口期已过，中美关税谈判取得一定实 质性进展，市场风险偏好可能会有所回升，经验上部分投资者会重新关 注成长。部分国际科技巨头发布的一季度数据均显示资本开支显著增 加、鸿蒙 P ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growing preference of fund managers for new consumption stocks over traditional consumption stocks, which remain relatively sluggish in performance [1][2][5] - New consumption stocks have shown significant rebounds, with specific examples including Meitu's 33% increase, Xindong's 28% rise, and Smoore International's 75% surge, while traditional consumption funds have underperformed [2][3] - The investment landscape for new consumption is characterized by a scattered distribution of stocks, making research more time-consuming and complex compared to traditional consumption sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The rising trend in the new consumption sector is attracting substantial institutional funds, driven by a younger consumer base that values experience and innovation [5][6][7] - Fund managers are increasingly optimistic about new consumption, as evidenced by significant holdings in companies like Bubble Mart and Meixue Group, which reflect a shift towards mid-to-high-end domestic brands [6][7] - The market's focus on new consumption is attributed to its emphasis on consumer experience and the emergence of leading brands in the capital market, which fosters a collective investment approach [7]

5月份，增量政策可能不多，但储备政策不少，政策定力仍然很强，目标是应对关税的冲击。因此，市 场在度过业绩风险后仍然会关注科技成长主题。内需相关板块仍会是国内政策的首要着力点，低利率环 境下业绩稳定的高股息板块仍有配置价值。除此以外，在可能出现的关税缓和过程中，那些品牌力强、 定价能力强、替代难度大的公司有望迎来估值的修复。 谭小兵：看好有边际变化的成长股 4月份市场呈现V字形走势，内需与红利好于成长股。展望5月份，进入业绩真空期，市场对指数填补之 后能否继续上攻还是存在分歧，个人相对还是偏乐观：一方面是国内政策会逐步兑现；另一方面中美谈 判或拉开序幕，这有利于修复市场的风险偏好。方向上看好有边际变化的成长股。 回顾4月，美国"对等关税"来袭，全球市场剧烈波动，就中国资产来看，月内A股和港股主要指数收 跌。进入5月，尽管外部不确定性因素依然存在，但中美关税谈判窗口有望来临，国内一揽子增量政策 也在加速落地，为国内股市稳定发展带来有力支撑。 展望后市，市场将会如何演绎？哪些投资机会值得关注？一起来看看长城基金权益基金经理们的观点吧 ~ 杨建华：持续关注关税政策 展望5月，关税政策及中美贸易谈判仍将会成为左右市场的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant transformation in the consumer market driven by the Z generation, which is reshaping consumption patterns and preferences towards cultural and emotional values rather than just price [1][4][10] - The new consumption era is marked by a surge in IPOs, with companies like Hu Shang A Yi experiencing an oversubscription of 509 times, indicating strong market confidence in new consumer brands [2][12] - The shift from "price-driven" to "craft and design-driven" consumption is exemplified by the rise of brands like Lao Pu Gold, which cater to the cultural aspirations of younger consumers [4][10] Group 2 - The Z generation, comprising over 260 million individuals in China and more than 2 billion globally, is becoming the main force in the new consumption landscape, emphasizing emotional resonance and cultural identity in their purchasing decisions [3][6][12] - New consumer brands are successfully capturing specific cultural or emotional trends, leading to a distinct narrative that differentiates them from traditional consumption upgrades [7][10] - The integration of cultural elements into product design and marketing strategies is becoming essential for brands to resonate with the younger demographic, as seen with companies like Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Ba Wang Cha Ji [11][14] Group 3 - The upcoming wave of new consumer companies going public in 2025 is seen as a signal for a new offensive in the market, supported by government policies promoting traditional culture and domestic consumption [12][13] - The rise of domestic brands is facilitated by technological and cultural empowerment, allowing them to build competitive advantages and explore international markets [13][14] - Successful brands are expected to leverage cultural sensitivity, data analytics, and agile supply chains to navigate the complexities of the evolving consumer landscape [10][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant performance of certain Hong Kong-listed new consumer brands in 2023, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards either extreme cost-effectiveness or high-end products, moving away from the middle ground [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The stock prices of several Hong Kong consumer brands have surged, with notable increases such as over 198% for Laopu Gold and over 140% for Gu Ming and Mi Xue Group [1]. - The concept of "consumption downgrade" is being replaced by "consumption differentiation," highlighting that different consumer segments have varying demands, with some prioritizing cost-effectiveness and others seeking premium experiences [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - New consumer trends show a growing interest in self-indulgent purchases, with younger consumers gravitating towards products that offer emotional value, such as pet food and trendy toys [5][7]. - The demand for gold jewelry is increasing, particularly among entry-level customers of traditional luxury brands, indicating a shift in consumer loyalty and spending patterns [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Fund managers are urged to adapt their strategies to capture alpha opportunities in the evolving consumer landscape, moving away from traditional narratives of steady growth [5][6]. - There is a recognition that high-net-worth individuals continue to drive significant purchasing power, focusing on quality and emotional satisfaction rather than merely brand prestige [5][6]. Group 4: Industry Evolution - The retail landscape is evolving with new business models emerging, such as discount snacks and membership supermarkets, which aim to enhance retail efficiency [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the changing dynamics within the consumer sector, as companies that adapt to these shifts are likely to outperform [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of consumer investment, particularly focusing on the experiences of Black Ant Capital and its investment in Lao Pu Gold, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the consumer sector over the past few years [1][2][38]. Group 1: Investment Journey - Black Ant Capital made a significant mark in the consumer investment space with its early investment in Pop Mart, which led to a successful IPO and substantial fundraising [1][2]. - The firm faced a challenging four-year period between two major IPOs, during which it maintained its focus on consumer investments despite market downturns [2][38]. - The investment in Lao Pu Gold was characterized by a long-term relationship with the founder, showcasing the importance of persistence and strategic timing in investment decisions [3][4][20]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The consumer investment landscape has experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in consumer spending and investment opportunities in recent years [38][44]. - Lao Pu Gold's unique branding and cultural integration have positioned it as a strong player in the luxury market, appealing to high-net-worth individuals [5][6][12]. - The article emphasizes the shift in consumer preferences towards brands that resonate with traditional culture, indicating a potential growth area for companies like Lao Pu Gold [6][14]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Black Ant Capital's investment philosophy centers on identifying companies that create substantial value and have long-term vision, rather than merely chasing short-term trends [20][44]. - The firm believes in the importance of understanding market dynamics and consumer behavior, which has led to successful investments in various consumer brands [40][42]. - The article highlights the need for patience and a long-term perspective in consumer investments, especially in a volatile market environment [46][60].

近期，国内知名创投类节目《预见独角兽》全国海选活动正进行得如火如荼，来自全国各地的创业项目 汇聚一堂，展现出了非凡的创新活力与发展潜力。本次海选吸引了海量创业者踊跃参与，项目涵盖人工 智能、生物医药、新能源、新消费等多个热门领域，竞争异常激烈。经过层层筛选与严格评审，一批极 具潜力的优质项目脱颖而出，成功晋级下一轮，它们将有机会在《预见独角兽》的舞台上大放异彩。 《预见独角兽》是一档由预见独角兽与东方卫视联合打造的创业赋能平台，致力于帮助优秀创业者实现 梦想，挖掘并培育独角兽及潜在独角兽企业，自推出以来便在创业投资领域引发广泛关注。该栏目依托 预见独角兽在创业领域的深厚积累，以及东方卫视强大的媒体影响力，汇聚了行业顶尖的企业家、投资 人、行业专家等丰富资源，为创业者搭建起一个高端且专业的交流平台。 对于创业者而言，登上《预见独角兽》的舞台意味着获得多维度的展示机会。创业者不仅能与业界大咖 面对面交流，获取项目规划、商业模式优化、融资策略等方面的宝贵建议，助力项目快速成长；其创业 项目还将在全国观众面前亮相，吸引潜在合作伙伴与投资人的目光，提升项目知名度与影响力，打开更 广阔的市场空间。更为重要的是，对于具有高 ...

东吴证券研报对新消费的特点进行了深入剖析。新消费具有"人传人""可交易""易造梗"等独特特点。与 传统消费不同，新消费的消费习惯、产品以及品牌具备"人传人"的传播性。其最终目的是让用户成为营 销官，不再依赖公司投放广告，而是让用户主动进行营销。同时，股东也会积极参与营销，形成一 个"圈层群体"的整体营销模式。 新消费相关港股企业包括： 泡泡玛特（09992）、老铺黄金（06181)、毛戈平（01318）、蜜雪集团（02097）、布鲁可（00325）、 古茗（01364）、奈雪的茶（02150）、巨子生物（02367）等。 智通财经APP获悉，随着年轻一代消费观念的转变和消费市场的不断升级，新消费有望在未来持续释放 巨大的发展潜力，成为推动经济增长的重要力量。 申万菱信乐融一年持有混合基金付娟表示，不同于过去依靠人口红利的旧周期，这一轮的消费新周期或 会呈现一个长周期的走势，其根植于年轻化的人口代际的变化。他们更加重视内心的愉悦，有着相对较 高的付费意愿，更加积极拥抱新的科技水平，也面临更加充足的产品供给。 券商普遍认为，在提振内需、促进消费的明确方向下，消费政策预期持续受到关注，目前市场预期升温 已有所体现， ...