Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.30% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 408 million yuan, an increase of 85.51% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 319 million yuan, up 214.33% [1] - A cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) is proposed for all shareholders [1] Product Strategy - The company is accelerating the launch of snack products to build a "full-category" product matrix under the "high-end cost performance" strategy, with over 1,000 new SKUs launched in 2024 [2] - The core category of nuts generated revenue of 5.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.76%, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue [2] - The company is expanding its multi-brand matrix, with the infant food brand "Little Deer Blue" achieving revenue of 794 million yuan, representing 7.48% of total revenue [2] Sales Channels - Online channels continue to show strong performance, with revenue of 7.407 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 49.60%, accounting for 69.73% of total revenue [3] - The Douyin channel contributed 2.188 billion yuan, growing 81.73% year-on-year, while Tmall and JD contributed 1.937 billion yuan and 1.340 billion yuan, growing 11.45% and 11.95% respectively [3] - Offline distribution is officially ramping up, with offline channel revenue reaching 3.215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.62%, accounting for 30.27% of total revenue [3] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 24.25%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, driven by scale effects and improved supply chain efficiency [4] - The net profit margin improved to 3.84%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant enhancement in profitability [4] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 537 million yuan, 747 million yuan, and 972 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.34, 1.86, and 2.42 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 49.30%, and a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [1] Group 1: Online Sales Dependency - In 2024, online sales accounted for 69.73% of total revenue, with 7.407 billion yuan generated from third-party e-commerce platforms, indicating a high reliance on online channels [4] - The company faces risks due to the declining traffic benefits of e-commerce platforms, changes in platform policies, increased competition, and rising customer acquisition costs [4] Group 2: Offline Channel Development - The company has opened a total of 333 offline stores by the end of 2024, with 296 being snack stores, generating 404 million yuan in revenue, which is approximately 3.8% of total revenue [5] - Offline distribution business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.641 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 80%, but the overall offline channel still lacks sufficient resilience against online fluctuations [5] Group 3: Product Category Strengths and Challenges - Nuts remain the core product category, with strong growth in 2024, featuring over 20 billion-level single products, and several products ranking top in their categories on major platforms [6] - The company launched over 1,000 new SKUs in the snack market, but faces intense competition from brands like Good Products and Baicaowei, indicating a need for improved product differentiation and market segmentation [7] Group 4: Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company has made progress in global raw material sourcing and supply chain efficiency through a "one product, one chain" strategy, establishing centralized supply bases and factories [8] - Despite improvements, the company still faces cost pressures from raw material price fluctuations and rising logistics costs, with a gross profit margin of 24.25% in 2024, which is an improvement from 2023 but lower than 29.38% in 2021 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global brand recognition and supply chain capabilities, following a trend of A-share companies seeking overseas listings [1][4]. Company Overview - Three Squirrels was founded on February 16, 2012, and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board on July 12, 2019. It is a manufacturer and retailer in the snack industry, specializing in a full range of self-owned brands, with nuts as its core product [4]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 407.74 million yuan, showing an 85.51% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 319.32 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 214.33% year-on-year [5]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 601.74 million yuan, up 80.08% from the previous year [5]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 1.02 yuan, an increase of 85.45% compared to the previous year [5]. Market Position - As of March 27, the stock price of Three Squirrels was 28.69 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 11.505 billion yuan [6]. - The company has seen a stock price increase of 1.81% on that day [6]. - The total assets of the company at the end of 2024 were 6.767 billion yuan, a 22.07% increase from the previous year [5].

Investment Opportunities - "Tang San Liang Da Jiu Pu" has completed nearly 10 million yuan in angel round financing, focusing on a new style of liquor chain with over 120 SKUs and more than 30 stores nationwide [2] - "LynxAI" has secured several million yuan in angel round financing, providing Agentic AI solutions for cross-border e-commerce [3] - "Xi Wei Ying Shui Jiao Sha Guo Cai" has completed Series A financing led by Source Code Capital, specializing in traditional dumplings and casserole dishes [4] - "Ge Wu Technology" has completed several million yuan in Pre-A round financing, focusing on AI smart hardware and is part of the Xiaomi ecosystem [5][6] - "Yunnan Smart Cultural Tourism" has completed several million yuan in Pre-A round financing, offering digital-driven smart tourism solutions [7] Company Developments - "Nai Xue's Tea" has opened its first light drink and light food store, with a focus on health and a projected revenue of 4.8 to 5.1 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease from the previous year [9] - "Hao Xiang Lai" has surpassed 15,000 stores, with its snack brand reaching over 10,000 stores, and the group reporting a revenue increase of nearly 16 times in 2023 [10] - "Cha Xiao Kai" has achieved over 200 million yuan in sales in 2024, marking a 2.5 times growth from the previous year, while planning to diversify its product offerings beyond sugar-free tea [12][14] Market Trends - In February 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices down by 3.3% and non-food prices down by 0.1% [20] - Bilibili users exhibit a willingness to spend on interests and emotional needs, averaging seven hobbies per person, influencing their consumption behavior [22][23]

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [10]. Core Views - The company has signed over 15,000 stores, indicating a sustained momentum in store openings and a strong long-term growth outlook [3][4]. - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond snacks to include daily necessities and other categories, enhancing its market presence [4]. - The launch of discount supermarkets is expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth potential, leveraging its strong supply chain and logistics capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.949 billion, 51.272 billion, and 60.712 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 243.77%, 60.48%, and 18.41% [5]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 268 million, 519 million, and 705 million RMB, with growth rates of 422.60%, 94.11%, and 35.85% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.49, 2.89, and 3.92 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. Market Position - The company has established a strong brand recognition with over 10,000 stores, which is expected to enhance customer traffic [3]. - The new store formats are designed to meet community needs, offering a wider range of products at competitive prices compared to traditional retail formats [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese snack industry, highlighting a "golden period" characterized by simultaneous growth in volume and price, driven by health, scenario-based consumption, and digitalization [2][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese snack industry is experiencing a "volume and price increase" phase, with a steady market growth trajectory. The market size is projected to reach 1.4 trillion RMB by 2024, recovering from a growth rate slump during 2020-2022, which saw a mere 0.8% increase in 2022 [2][6]. - The current market structure is layered into three segments: foundational categories supporting the market, emerging categories breaking through, and long-tail categories gaining momentum. Traditional giants are urged to seek high-end upgrades, while new entrants should focus on health transformation [9][12]. - The market is characterized by a "strong head, weak long tail" dynamic in 2023, necessitating traditional categories to innovate through scenarios to extend their lifecycle, while health-focused niches present structural opportunities [2][9]. - Offline channels dominate the snack distribution landscape, with hypermarkets accounting for over 40% of the market share, supermarkets around 24%, and e-commerce channels approximately 20%, which is gradually declining [2][26]. Summary by Sections Current Status of the Snack Industry - The snack industry is undergoing a channel transformation that is generating new growth opportunities. The rise of hypermarkets is particularly noteworthy, as they leverage high turnover efficiency to offer competitive pricing [6][34]. Channel Transformation - The report outlines a significant shift in the snack sales channels over the years, evolving from traditional distribution networks to large chain stores, and now to hypermarket sales models. This transformation is expected to continue, with hypermarkets projected to reach a market size of 1,040 billion RMB by 2024 [25][26]. Analysis of Representative Companies - **Mingming Hen Mang**: Following a merger, the brand's sales are expected to surge from 23.865 billion RMB in 2023 to 55.5 billion RMB in 2024, marking a growth of over 130%. The company serves approximately 5.9 million consumers daily [2][56]. - **China Wangwang**: The company faces challenges with its core product, Wangzai Milk, which accounts for 90% of its revenue in the dairy segment. The revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to decline by 1.6% year-on-year [2][60]. - **Three Squirrels**: The company has seen a decline in revenue from 9.79 billion RMB in 2020 to 7.12 billion RMB in 2023, primarily due to the fading e-commerce boom and high costs of offline expansion. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024 with a projected revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion RMB, driven by a strategy focused on high-end value and omnichannel sales [2][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Kellanova by Mars signifies a strategic shift for the candy giant towards a comprehensive snack portfolio, aiming to enhance its market presence in the snack food sector [3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Mars announced the issuance of investment-grade bonds worth $26 billion (approximately 188.5 billion RMB) to finance the acquisition of Kellanova, which is the largest acquisition in Mars' history and the biggest merger financing deal since 2024 [2][4]. - The acquisition will fully integrate Kellanova into Mars' Snacking division, with Andrew Clarke, the global president of Mars Snacking, leading the merged operations [4][5]. - Kellanova, a subsidiary of Kellogg's, generated net sales of $13 billion in 2023 and includes brands like Pringles and Cheez-It, which will complement Mars' existing product lines [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The merger is expected to help Mars achieve its goal of doubling its snack business over the next decade by entering attractive new snack categories [7]. - The acquisition aligns with a trend among major food companies to expand their product lines through acquisitions, as seen in Mars' previous successful ventures in the pet food sector [7]. - Mars aims to leverage its extensive distribution channels in China to enhance the sales of both sweet and savory snacks post-acquisition [7][11]. Group 3: Market Context - The Chinese candy market is experiencing a decline, with a market size of 599.9 billion RMB in 2022, showing a decrease of 11.1% and 8.7% in 2020 and 2022, respectively [10]. - Mars faces stiff competition in the Chinese market, holding only a 7.9% market share in the first quarter of 2024, with significant competition from local brands [10][12]. - The acquisition of Kellanova's health-oriented brands like RXBAR and NutriGrain is seen as crucial for Mars to adapt to changing consumer preferences towards healthier snack options [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market experienced increased trading activity with an average daily turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan, but overall market sentiment was bearish, leading to a decline in major indices [1][14] - The report highlights a shift in market focus towards value stocks and high-dividend sectors due to rising risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions and profit-taking behavior [2][15] - The manufacturing PMI improved from 49.1% to 50.2%, indicating a recovery in economic activity, while the service sector showed signs of decline post-Spring Festival [3][10] - The report notes a cyclical recovery in various industries, including steel, chemicals, and automotive, with property sales also showing a seasonal uptick [4][14] Summary by Sections Macro Economy and Policy Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, reflecting stronger recovery compared to the previous year, driven by robust resumption of work and strong export demand [3][10] - The U.S. PCE inflation showed a slight decrease, with personal income rising by 0.9% while personal spending declined by 0.2%, indicating cautious consumer behavior [3][12] Industry Monitoring - The report indicates a cyclical recovery in the steel, chemical, and automotive sectors, with property sales showing a seasonal increase [4][14] - The average wholesale price of pork increased to 21.21 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices fell to 4.89 yuan/kg, reflecting mixed trends in commodity prices [4][16] Funding Trends - The report notes a net injection of 137 billion yuan in the open market, with a decrease in IPO and private placement fundraising compared to the previous month [5][18] - The total turnover rate for A-shares was recorded at 1.26%, indicating a slight increase in trading activity [5][18] Industry Performance - Among the 30 sectors, steel, construction materials, and real estate showed positive returns, while sectors like telecommunications and media faced significant declines [16][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the technology, manufacturing, consumption, and pharmaceutical sectors for long-term investment opportunities [2][15] Consumer Trends - The report discusses the evolving consumer preferences towards snacks over traditional meals, highlighting a shift in purchasing behavior due to inflation [26][27] - The white liquor industry is experiencing supply adjustments to stabilize prices, with major brands implementing supply controls [25][27] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the upcoming Two Sessions may provide clarity on economic policies and growth targets, which could influence market sentiment [31][33] - The report anticipates a continued focus on AI and cloud computing investments, particularly from major players like Alibaba, indicating growth potential in these sectors [29][30]