0:00 前期的视频我们认识了香港市场的跨境ETF，本期视频，我们放眼全球，再来了解下其他市场的跨境 ETF吧。 首先，我们来看下全球知名的美国纳斯达克100指数（简称纳指100）。 （数据来源：Wind；截止日期：2025/3/10） 除了纳指100，美股中反映传统经济的道琼斯指数、聚焦美股大盘的标普500指数也均有跨境ETF跟踪， 只是ETF规模和数量相较于纳指100相对较少，感兴趣的小伙伴可以关注下。 成分股看-聚集科技巨头，前十大权重股包括苹果、英伟达、微软、亚马逊、博通、特斯拉、脸 书、谷歌等大家耳熟能详的顶尖的科技公司，他们在各自的科技赛道也是赫赫有名的全球引领 者； 行业看-分布集中，成长风格突出。前3大权重行业为信息技术（49.2%）、通讯服务（24.6%）、 可选消费（14%），其中信息技术占比近50%。 凸显大市值-纳指100更聚焦大市值公司，目前成分股中总市值超过5000亿美元的有9家，平均市值 超2600亿美元。 说完了美股、港股主要的跨境ETF，我们再来看两只投资于港交所、纳斯达克、纽交所三个交易所上市 的互联网企业的指数-中国互联网50、中国互联网30。 两只指数成分股均是30只， ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微跌，截止到收盘，还在5.1星。 沪深300微跌，小盘股下跌略多。 遇到市场下跌的时候，红利等价值风格相对坚挺，略微上涨。 必需消费通常受经济周期的影响相对小一些。 上周港股上涨超2.5%，港股科技指数上涨超5%。 遇到回调的时候港股一般波动比A股大，反弹的时候弹性也会更高。 1. 有朋友问，消费类指数有哪些呢？ 消费行业，主要分为必需消费和可选消费。 （1）必需消费 主要是食品饮料，包括酒、乳制品、肉制品等。 A股对应的指数，就是中证消费。 中证消费，主要投资沪深300、中证500中的大中盘必需消费股票。 成长风格下跌。 港股最近比A股表现好一些。 最近比较受关注的关税，影响全球股票市场出现较大波动。 但必需消费因为主营业务在内地，不太受关税提升的影响，最近3个月中证消费指数连续三个月上涨。 必需消费行业下面，还有食品饮料指数、白酒指数等。 （2）可选消费 主要是汽车、家电、传媒娱乐等。 像一些新能源汽车，属于可选消费；游戏、广告属于传媒娱乐。 这里面比较有意思的是，很多港股科技股，按照行业划分，也属于消费行业。 例如腾讯，属于互联网科技公司。 但主营业务 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 一季度工业企业营收、盈利均较去年增速有所上行，其中盈利由负转正，同比为小幅正增的0.8%。这与一季度GDP增速实现良好开局的情况比较吻 合。上市公司盈利和规模以上企业盈利在大的趋势上应具有同步性，我们估计表现会大致相似。 第二， 从3月单月来看，规上工业企业营收和盈利也处于加速趋势中。3月规上工业企业营收同比增长4.2%，较1-2月加快1.4个点；工业企业利润同比增长 2.6%，较1-2月的-0.3%加快3.1个点。从量、价、利润率三因素拆解，3月工增同比实现7.7%的高增，营收利润率同比降幅较1-2月小幅收窄，二者共同支 撑了利润的改善；PPI环比和同比降幅扩大，形成对利润改善幅度的制约。 第三， 哪些行业带来了整体利润的改善？从中观角度看，增速较快的行业线索有六：一是受益于涨价和新兴产业需求支撑的有色产业链；二是"两新"政策加力 驱动的专用设备、通用设备、电气机械和仪器仪表行业；三是受益于航空航天产业高速发展 [7]和出口增长的交运设备行业；四是必选消费相关的农副食品行 业；五是公用事业（废弃资源利用 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies three significant export downturn periods in China: 2009-2014, 2016-2018, and 2023, with varying internal demand drivers such as infrastructure and consumption [4][12][14] - During the 2009-2014 downturn, the primary internal demand sectors were infrastructure and manufacturing, influenced by global economic crises [12] - The 2016-2018 period saw real estate and consumption as key internal demand sectors, impacted by trade protectionism and economic adjustments [13] - In 2023, the internal demand sectors shifted to consumption and infrastructure, driven by global economic slowdown and trade tensions [14] Group 2 - The report outlines structural policy responses during the three export downturns, emphasizing the need for export facilitation, infrastructure investment, and consumption stimulation [5][17] - Export policies evolved from short-term measures to stabilize trade to long-term structural optimization, focusing on enhancing trade facilitation and exploring new markets [18] - Infrastructure policies transitioned from traditional projects to major engineering and new infrastructure initiatives, particularly in response to economic challenges [18] - Real estate policies shifted from strict controls to significant relaxations, reflecting the changing economic landscape [20] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market during these downturns shows that the technology sector often outperformed, while the export chain struggled, particularly during the 2016-2018 period [22][24] - In the first downturn (2009-2014), the technology sector benefited from the smartphone boom, while the export chain lagged significantly by 26.08% in 2014 [23] - The second downturn (2016-2018) saw the red chip and internal demand chains perform relatively well, while the technology sector faced a downturn due to high valuations [24][28] - In 2023, the technology sector led the market, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence and digital economy, while the export chain remained under pressure [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Japanese consumer companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [6]. Core Insights - The Japanese consumer confidence index fell for the fourth consecutive month to 34.1 in March, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment amid rising inflation [2][8]. - Essential consumer goods saw a surge in stockpiling due to anticipated price hikes in April, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in beer, which saw a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3][14]. - Discretionary consumption faced a slowdown, with mixed performance among companies; brands like Salia, Uniqlo, and Muji managed to attract consumers despite the overall decline in demand [3][5]. Macro Overview - Inflation in Japan is rising, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.6% year-on-year in March, while core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.2% [2][10]. - Real wages fell by 1.5% year-on-year in February, reflecting that wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation [2][8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 4.2% year-on-year in March, marking the highest level since 1980 [12]. Essential Consumption - Retail sales for essential goods increased primarily due to higher average transaction values, with notable growth in companies like PPIH (+5.9%), 7-Eleven (+1.0%), and Aeon (+2.9%) [4][16]. - The stockpiling trend was driven by consumers preparing for upcoming price increases, significantly boosting sales in food and daily necessities [3][14]. Discretionary Consumption - Discretionary spending showed varied performance, with restaurants like Salia and McDonald's increasing prices due to rising raw material costs, leading to year-on-year sales growth of 13.9% and 11.0%, respectively [5][26]. - Department store sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8% in March, influenced by a strong previous year's performance [33][37]. - The duty-free sales sector experienced its first negative growth in 36 months, reflecting a broader trend of reduced spending on high-priced items due to the appreciating yen and economic uncertainties [5][37]. Company Performance - Asahi and Kirin reported significant revenue increases in March, with Asahi's beer sales up 37% and Kirin's up 30%, driven by stockpiling ahead of price hikes [20][23]. - Uniqlo's same-store sales rose by 11.5% in March, benefiting from strong demand for seasonal products and effective marketing strategies [30][35]. - The performance of specialty stores like Muji and Nitori varied, with Muji seeing a 20.5% increase in same-store sales while Nitori experienced an 8.6% decline [35].

本文作者： 刘晨明/许向真/陈振威 2. 风格配置上： 南向进攻型的资金仍保持不低的风险偏好。"反制关税"后第一周，南向对"哑铃策略"两端均作了增持；"反制关税"后 第二周则减配金融股，同时继续增持成长股。 3. 成长股内部： 半导体和可选消费（电商）连续两周获增持，当前超配比例分别为1.86%、-4.06%，处于2022年以来96.3%、 100.0%分位数。医药生物板块过去一周增持幅度较大，当前超配比例处于2022年以来51.8%分位数。软件服务板块持股比例则连续两 周下滑，当前超配比例基本处于2022年以来最低位置附近。 | 二级行业超配比 例(基准为流通市 | | 2025-01-03 2025-01-10 2025-01-17 | | 2025-01-24 2025-02-07 | | 2025-02-14 | | 2026-02-21 2025-02-28 | 2025-03-07 | | | 2025-03-14 2025-03-21 2026-03-28 2025-04-04 2025-04-11 | | | 2025-04-18 | 24年以来超 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

大类资产方面，上周全球资产价格涨跌互现。 权益方面，美国市场三大指数集体承压，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数分别下跌超2%；欧洲市 场则普遍走强，德国DAX、法国CAC40与英国富时100指数均上行；亚洲市场亦表现亮眼，日韩主 流指数上涨均超2%。 一周摘要 市场概况： 上周（4月14日至4月18日）A股市场呈现显著的结构性分化特征，主要指数涨跌互 现，风格切换与博弈成为市场情绪波动的主因。从风格特征看，全周大盘蓝筹与高股息策略表现突 出，成长板块延续回调，资金从高波动的科技赛道转向现金流稳定的传统行业。从风险因素看，在 政策加码与外部冲击的预期交织中，结构性机会仍大于风险。全周上证指数上涨1.19%，深证指数 下跌0.54%，创业板指下跌0.64%。 行业板块： 上周继续受供应链担忧引发的经济复苏放缓预期影响，工业、可选消费、医疗保健和信 息技术出现不同程度下跌，其中信息技术跌幅最深，但绝对跌幅未超过0.8%。房地产、通讯服务及 公用事业等相对表现较好，周涨幅均超1%，地产行业更是逆势上涨达3.47%。 基金发行： 上周合计发行25只，其中股票型基金发行17只，债券型基金发行7只，FOF型基金发行 1只，总发 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market's three major indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai Consumer 50 Index rising by 0.43% to 8251.36 points, with a trading volume of 39.565 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Consumer 50 Index has decreased by 4.50% over the past month, increased by 1.55% over the past three months, and has fallen by 3.01% year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of consumer-related securities listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Consumer 50 Index include Kweichow Moutai (10.51%), Yili Group (10.44%), and others, with the total weight of the top ten accounting for a significant portion of the index [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with optional consumption accounting for 51.26% and major consumption accounting for 48.74% of the holdings [1] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments typically occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, with a sample adjustment ratio not exceeding 10% [2]

这里有一门限时免费的福利课程。螺丝钉通过两门图文课程，介绍了主动基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」为好友，给小助手发送「 主动基金 」领取哦～ ◆◆◆ 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 买主动基金，就是买基金经理。 不过目前市场上已经有几千位基金经理了。如果没有系统的方法论，只凭个人感觉进行挑选，会比较困难。 (1) 必需消费 主要是食品饮料,其中包括酒、乳制品、肉 制品等。 (2) 可选消费 主要是汽车、家电、传媒娱乐等。 像之前比较火的新能源车属于可选消费;游 戏属于传媒娱乐。 当前大部分消费类基金,主要投资的也是必 需消费和可选消费这两类。 这类型基金,通常投资的是更广义的、带有 消费属性的一些品种,包括住房消费(属于 房地产）、金融消费（属于金融）、医药消 费等。 也有一些基金，名称里会带有「大消费」。 长期来看，消费行业的表现不错。 不论是必需消费还是可选消费，都属于值得 投资的优秀品种。 不过,行业指数的波动风险通常更大一些, 平均一年可达到30%-50%左右。而沪深300 等宽基指数每年的波动，通常在20%-25% 上下。 在投资时候，我们要控制好比例，单个行业 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.51% and the S&P 500 declining by 1.57% [1][3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed with a 3.79% increase year-to-date [1] Industry Insights Internet Industry - Companies with defensive attributes and those benefiting from domestic demand are expected to perform well under current market conditions [4] - Recommended stocks include NetEase (NTES US) and Tencent Music (TME US) for their growth potential in gaming and music sectors [4] - Ctrip (TCOM US) and Meituan (3690 HK) are highlighted for their resilience in domestic and outbound travel demand [4] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. has announced "reciprocal tariffs," which may lead to additional tariffs on the semiconductor sector [5] - The trend towards domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting companies like Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) and North Huachuang (002371 CH) [5] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong domestic replacement capabilities, especially in AI and analog semiconductor sectors [5] Insurance Industry - Recent regulatory changes allow for an increase in equity investment limits for insurance funds, potentially injecting an estimated CNY 1.66 trillion into the stock market [6][7] - The new regulations raise the equity asset allocation limit to 50%, which could significantly enhance the investment capacity of insurance companies [6][7] - The core equity assets of listed insurance companies are expected to increase, reflecting a shift towards higher-yielding stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [8] Engineering Machinery Industry - Strong sales growth in excavators and wheel loaders was reported, with domestic sales increasing by 29% and 23% year-on-year, respectively [8] - Companies like SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH) and Zoomlion (1157 HK) are recommended due to their strong market positions and sales performance [8] Company Analysis Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - The company faces challenges due to new U.S. tariffs, which could significantly impact its revenue, as the U.S. market accounts for nearly 30% of its total income [9][10] - The rating has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of CNY 51, reflecting concerns over future profitability [9][10] Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile (175 HK), Xpeng Motors (XPEV US), and Tencent (700 HK), all showing significant upside potential based on current valuations [11]