Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that rubber prices will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500. The supply side is affected by the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas, and the expected increase in raw material output in the future suppresses the raw material prices. The cost support has weakened, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, so the natural rubber inventory is unlikely to see a significant reduction. On the demand side, although some enterprises are short of goods, the overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. As the holiday approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the macro - sentiment of commodities weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan to 14,700 yuan, a decline of 0.68%. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 65 to - 835. - The price of Thai - standard mixed rubber decreased by 250 yuan to 14,750 yuan, a decline of 1.67%. The non - standard price difference decreased by 215 to - 785, a decline of 37.72%. - The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.60 Thai baht per kilogram to 51.05 Thai baht per kilogram, a decline of 1.16%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market increased by 0.10 to 56.30, an increase of 0.18% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to 15, a decline of 50.00%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to 5, a decline of 66.67%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 to - 20, an increase of 55.56% [1]. Production and Consumption Data - In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons or 1.61% compared with the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons or 12.09%. India's production was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons or 2.17%. China's production was 101,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.66%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 10.2954 million tons, an increase of 859,000 tons or 9.10%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a decrease of 3.64 million pieces or 5.46% [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 10,020 tons to 592,275 tons, a decline of 1.66%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,411 tons to 44,553 tons, a decline of 3.07% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. Although the manufacturers' inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and the over - supply still exists compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Glass**: The spot market has good transactions, and the inventory has decreased this week. However, the inventory of some middle - stream enterprises in some regions remains high. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass is continuously low. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. The industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. It is necessary to track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - **Glass**: The price of glass 2505 increased by 15 yuan to 1343 yuan, an increase of 1.13%. The price of glass 2509 increased by 18 yuan to 1405 yuan, an increase of 1.30%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 193, a decline of 8.43%. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan to 1407 yuan, an increase of 0.50%. The price of soda ash 2509 increased by 12 yuan to 1454 yuan, an increase of 0.86%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 to - 107, a decline of 7.00% [3]. Supply - The soda ash mining rate decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash decreased by 15,000 tons to 745,700 tons, a decline of 2.02%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 159,500 tons, a decline of 0.47%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 675,000 tons to 60.908 million tons, a decline of 1.10%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 1.7556 million tons, a decline of 2.33%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 614,900 tons, an increase of 10.69% [3]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 0.22%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of sales area was - 6.55%, a decrease of 6.50 percentage points [3]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. The current average daily shipment volume is still below 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan per cubic meter has a high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2511 increased by 3.5 yuan to 805 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.44%. The price of log 2601 increased by 2 yuan to 818.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.24%. The price of log 2603 increased by 1 yuan to 825 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.12%. The price of log 2605 remained unchanged at 828 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15. The 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20. The 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55. The 01 - contract basis decreased by 66.5 to - 68.5 [4]. Import Cost and Shipping - The import theoretical cost was 796.96 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0%. - The number of ships departing from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3 to 44, a decline of 6.38% [4]. Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The average daily shipment volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 3% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance will gradually become looser. The expectation of large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises during the flat - and - low - water period is at the end of October, so the expected surplus in October is more obvious and will narrow again in November. At the same time, the increase in production costs in the southwest during the flat - and - low - water period raises the average industry cost, giving positive sentiment to the market. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to lack upward driving force in the short term and may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 45, a decline of 89.89%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan. The basis decreased by 97 to - 202, a decline of 380.95%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 295, a decline of 57.55% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 35 to - 50, a decline of 233.33%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 to - 390, a decline of 1.30%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 to 5. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 30 to 10, an increase of 150.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - **Production**: The national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, an increase of 47,400 tons or 14.01%. Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons or 12.91%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons or 41.19%. Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons or 10.72% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The national operating rate was 55.87%, an increase of 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, an increase of 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%. Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, an increase of 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points or 19.83% [5]. - **Downstream Production**: The production of organic silicon DMC was 223,100 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons or 11.66%. The production of polysilicon was 131,700 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons or 8.32% [5]. Inventory Change - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 0.13 tons to 12.04 tons, a decline of 1.07%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.16 tons to 3.10 tons, an increase of 5.45%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 0.01 tons to 2.29 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory increased by 0.40 tons to 54.30 tons, an increase of 0.74% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the industry self - discipline meeting was held again to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises have production - cut plans in the future. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises (the inventory distribution among enterprises is uneven) provide support for the price increase of polysilicon enterprises. Currently, low - price resources in the polysilicon market are scarce and are being snapped up, while high - price resources still face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 50 yuan to 52,650 yuan, an increase of 0.10%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan. The basis of N - type material increased by 555 yuan to - 50, an increase of 91.74% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 505 yuan to 52,700 yuan, a decline of 0.95%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 130 to 120, an increase of 1300.00%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract decreased by 50 to - 2590, a decline of 1.97% [6]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly Data**: The production of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, an increase of 0.04 GW or 0.29%. The production of polysilicon was 3.10 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 0.64%. - **Monthly Data**: The production of polysilicon was 131.7 kilotons, an increase of 24.9 kilotons or 23.31%. The import volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, an increase of 0.03 kilotons or 40.30%. The export volume of polysilicon was 0.22 kilotons, an increase of 0.01 kilotons or 5.96%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 14.92% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of polysilicon decreased by 1.5 kilotons to 20.4 kilotons, a decline of 6.85%. The inventory of silicon wafers increased by 0.32 GW to 16.87 GW, an increase of 1.93%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 7900 hands, an increase of 0.25% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry silicon: Volatility [5] - Polysilicon: Volatility [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose significantly this week, and the polysilicon spot price was firm. In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a higher probability of rising when buying at low prices, and the polysilicon futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [4][11][12] - Different sectors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain have different price trends and inventory situations. For example, the price of industrial silicon increased, the price of polysilicon futures fell slightly, and the prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [9][10][11] Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 560 yuan/ton to 9305 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - passed 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The polysilicon PS2511 contract decreased by 910 yuan/ton to 52700 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Rose Against the Trend, Polysilicon Spot was Firm - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract rose. There were no new furnace start - ups or shutdowns this week. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 units and Sichuan's to about 35 units. The social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. 9 - 10 months may accumulate about 50,000 tons of inventory, and 11 - 12 months may reduce about 60,000 tons, but the volume is not significant [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,800 tons, a decrease of 3.17% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated and declined. The quotes of first - tier manufacturers' dense materials were 55 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' were 52 yuan/kg, and the new order quote of granular materials increased to 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not fully implemented, but the sales limit started. The inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 204,000 tons. The spot price may remain flat or increase slightly [3][12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Some models stabilized at new quotes. The production schedule in September was 57.5GW, an increase of 1.5GW month - on - month. The inventory was 16.87GW, an increase of 0.32GW. The price is expected to remain stable [14] - **Battery Cells**: The quotes increased further. The production schedule in September was 60GW, an increase of 1.8GW month - on - month. The overseas demand supported the price increase of M10 models, but the new price may be close to the limit for domestic component enterprises [14] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. The inventory was 34.5GW, an increase of 0.4GW. The production schedule in September may decrease by about 1GW. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The reasons for the sharp rise in the market are not core. The cost will increase during the dry season. Buying at low prices has a higher probability of winning, but chasing high prices requires caution [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: The market may still bet on the progress of platform companies in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the 11 - contract rebounds and the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][17] 4. Hot News Sorting - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium" and other national standards solicited opinions, stipulating the energy consumption quota levels of polysilicon per unit product [13][18] - On September 16, GCL Technology announced a placement of 4.736 billion shares to promote the adjustment of polysilicon production capacity [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [20][23][28] - **Organic Silicon**: Includes data such as DMC spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [30][31] - **Polysilicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly gross profits, and factory inventory [33][37] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [38][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and overseas sales factory inventory [46][49][51] - **Components**: Includes data such as spot prices, factory inventory, and monthly production [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Neutral for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range operation for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have little change, with a slight increase in inventory. The recent rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly due to capital behavior and news, and there is still pressure above. If there are relevant capacity exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3] - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The 2511 main contract opened at 8,920 yuan/ton and closed at 8,905 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 285,052 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,871 lots, down 25 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in many regions were stable, and the price of 97 silicon was also stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 18 was 543,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week [1] - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, but price increases were restricted. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 53,200 yuan/ton and closed at 53,205 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day. The position was 122,834 lots (126,234 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 198,758 lots [4][5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.20 - 55.00 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons (up 3.79% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (up 1.93% month - on - month). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (up 3.31% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (up 0.29% month - on - month) [5] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, with only a slight decline in the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers [5][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the current pricing trends and transportation costs for industrial silicon in China, highlighting regional price variations and the companies involved in the market [1][2][3]. Pricing Summary - The national average price for industrial silicon is reported at 9,176 RMB/ton, with a previous price of 8,708 RMB/ton, indicating a significant increase [1]. - Regional prices vary, with Xinjiang prices ranging from 9,400 to 9,600 RMB/ton, Yunnan from 9,000 to 9,300 RMB/ton, and Fujian showing prices between 10,200 and 10,300 RMB/ton [1][2]. - The price fluctuations are based on a weighted average from participating companies' monthly production shares [2]. Transportation Costs - The transportation cost from Yili to Tianjin Port is 500 RMB/ton, while from Kunming to Huangpu Port, it is 350 RMB/ton [3]. Participating Companies - A list of companies involved in the industrial silicon market is provided, including major players from Xinjiang, Fujian, Yunnan, and Sichuan regions [3]. - Notable companies include He Sheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Dongfang Hope Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., and others from various regions [3]. Data Source - The data is sourced from Antaike and compiled by Zhang Fan, indicating a reliable basis for the reported figures [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Title: Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Spot Prices Rise Slightly [1][2] Core Views - The industrial silicon market has been persistently sluggish, but companies like Yongchang Silicon Industry are taking proactive measures to optimize production and reduce costs [2][4] - Polysilicon spot prices have seen a slight increase [2] Industry Data Summary Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon (Si2511)**: The closing price was 8,965 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 275,990 lots and an open interest of 285,673 lots. Compared to previous periods, the price, volume, and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Polysilicon (PS2511)**: The closing price was 53,490 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 186,238 lots and an open interest of 126,234 lots. There were also significant changes compared to previous periods [2] Basis and Price - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot premium/discount varied depending on the grade and region. For example, the premium/discount for Xinjiang 99 silicon was -215 yuan/ton [2] - **Polysilicon**: The spot premium/discount for N-type recycled materials was -1,440 yuan/ton [2] Profit - **Industrial Silicon**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were -2,306 yuan/ton and -3,251 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon enterprise profits were -14.1 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory was 53.9 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, and the total industry inventory was 71.3 million tons. Futures warehouse receipt inventory was 24.9 million tons [2] - **Polysilicon**: Manufacturer inventory was 21.9 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - **Silicon Ore**: Prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 330 yuan/ton and 300 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Washed Coal**: Prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,700 yuan/ton and 1,100 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Petroleum Coke**: Prices for Maoming Coke and Yangzi Coke were 1,400 yuan/ton and 1,770 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Electrodes**: Graphite electrode and carbon electrode prices were 12,450 yuan/ton and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively [2] Other Industries - **Organic Silicon**: DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton, and enterprise profit was -1,162 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 price was 21,050 yuan/ton, and recycled aluminum enterprise profit was 160 yuan/ton [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [4] - Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Company News - Yongchang Silicon Industry has implemented a series of measures to optimize production and reduce costs, achieving continuous improvement in production indicators and significant enhancement in cost control [2][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the industrial silicon industry shows a regional differentiation trend of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest." Next week, the actual production progress of new capacity in Xinjiang needs to be closely monitored [2]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Although the spot price of industrial silicon has risen, the futures price has weakened slightly. However, it is expected that the futures price will follow the spot price increase, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,965 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the position of the main contract is 285,673 lots, down 1,511 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -58,016 lots, up 1,276 lots; the warehouse receipt of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 49,896 lots, up 24 lots. The closing price of the December contract is -385 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - ventilated 553 silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 385 yuan/ton, unchanged; the DMC spot price is 11,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) remain unchanged at 410 yuan/ton, 1,860 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.25 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 72.71%, an increase of 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, a decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - GCL Technology (03800.HK) reached a strategic financing agreement with Infini Capital, raising about HK$5.446 billion (about US$700 million) through private placement of about 4.736 billion shares, with a lock - in period of 6 months [2]. - President Xi Jinping's article pointed out the need to rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply side shows a regional differentiation trend, and the demand side of the three major downstream industries remains flat [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 63.35 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 aligns with previous forecasts, indicating a potential rebound in its main business [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 9.775 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million CNY, down 140.60% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 4.548 billion CNY, reflecting a 42.11% decline year-on-year and a 13.02% decline quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -657 million CNY, a significant drop of 245.87% year-on-year and 352.93% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 27.132 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 969 million CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.82 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 63 [4]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 61.427 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.83% [5]. Business Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the industrial silicon sector, with a focus on cost advantages and market share expansion despite current price declines in industrial silicon and organic silicon [8]. - The company maintains normal operations in organic silicon, with expectations for price recovery due to limited new capacity and strong demand growth in the coming years [8]. - Future growth is anticipated from ongoing capacity expansions, including projects in Xinjiang and Yunnan, which are expected to enhance the company's growth potential once the industry rebounds [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions. Gold is supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, expected Fed rate - cuts, geopolitical situations, and long - term strategic allocation needs. Silver benefits from rate - cuts, strong demand, and limited supply growth [1]. - Copper recommends holding long positions, with some profit - taking. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1][8]. - Zinc is expected to face pressure in its rebound. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][12]. - Lead, tin, and nickel are expected to face pressure in their rebounds, affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance, supply - demand imbalances, and inventory changes [1]. - Aluminum is expected to be relatively strong, with stable overseas bauxite supply, inventory reduction, and increased downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have a rebound, with fundamental pressure but policy support [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a high - level shock, with improved fundamentals and limited upward drivers in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a rebound, with increasing production but also increasing inventory reduction, indicating strong terminal demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold has reached a new all - time high, and the market has priced in at least three rate - cuts [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US economic data supports rate - cuts. The retail sales growth may slow down. The market expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points, and a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have escalated. In the short - term, geopolitical and economic uncertainties drive the gold price to a new high. In the long - term, gold may have a long - term bull market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for gold and silver, but beware of "selling on the news" trading. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has risen and then fallen. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The processing fee TC is still in deep inversion. The production of electrolytic copper may decrease in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and the annual supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market has fully priced in the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, with some profit - taking. Beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The recommended trading ranges are [79,500, 82,500] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has faced pressure and declined, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic zinc concentrate TC has decreased, and SMM's imported zinc concentrate index has increased. In September, domestic smelter maintenance has increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has increased, while overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to decrease. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed rate - cut is almost certain. London zinc is approaching the 3,000 - dollar level, while domestic zinc ingot inventory increase has dragged down Shanghai zinc. In the long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. The recommended trading ranges are [22,000, 22,500] for Shanghai zinc and [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has stabilized at a low level [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased. In September, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. For alumina, the supply of Guinea's bauxite is abundant, but the arrival volume in September may be affected by the rainy season. The domestic alumina operating rate has increased, and the supply pressure has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price has faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel has rebounded [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. The supply of refined nickel in China has a large surplus pressure, and the domestic pure nickel social inventory has continued to increase slightly. For stainless steel, the downstream consumption peak - season expectation still exists. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decrease, and the production volume in September is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel with light positions in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, with the late - session gain falling below 2% [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to release incremental production, with weekly production and operating rate at historical highs. The terminal demand peak - season is obvious, with high - level energy storage demand and a warming power battery market. The downstream material factory's production schedule has continued to increase, and the inventory has been replenished for 10 consecutive weeks. The total inventory reduction of lithium carbonate production has increased, and the smelter inventory is below the median level, providing support for the price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to whether it can stand firm on the 60 - day moving average [72,500 - 74,500] [24].