注:此报价为整理多家企业报价去掉最高价、最低价,取价格区间所得,均为现金交货含税价, 涨跌幅度根据上次报价比较所得。综合价格根据报价企业的月度产量占比,通过加权平均整理 所得。 本周伊犁-天津港运费为600元/吨;昆明-黄埔港运费为350元/吨。 参与报价企业名单: 智通财经APP获悉，1月16日，硅业分会发文称，本周工业硅市场呈现"期强现稳"的分化走势。期货市场情绪 改善，主力合约2605收盘价自1月8日的8535元/吨上涨至8755元/吨，期间累计上涨220元/吨。现货市场则整体 持稳，据安泰科1月14日报价统计，全国工业硅综合价格报9245元/吨，与上周持平。具体规格中，553#价格报 8713元/吨，441#价格报9169元/吨，均未出现波动。区域价格方面，新疆、云南、四川综合价格分别为8810元/ 吨、10005元/吨、10050元/吨;出口FOB价格亦保持稳定。 本周工业硅供应端继续呈现收缩态势。尽管期货盘面有所修复，但现货市场持续疲软，加上生产成本高企， 压制了企业的生产积极性。当前，甘肃、宁夏等地企业面临亏损困境，就连新疆等传统低成本区域的企业也 已陷入亏损，部分企业正着手安排减产，四川、云南 ...

本周工业硅市场呈现"期强现稳"的分化走势。期货市场情绪改善，主力合约 2605 收盘价 自 1 月 8 日的 8535 元 / 吨上涨至 8755 元 / 吨，期间累计上涨 220 元 / 吨 。现货市场则整体 持稳，据安泰科 1 月 14 日报价统计，全国工业硅综合价格报 9245 元 / 吨，与上周持平。具 体规格中， 553# 价格报 8713 元 / 吨， 441# 价格报 9169 元 / 吨，均未出现波动。区域价格 方面，新疆、云南、四川综合价格分别为 8810 元 / 吨、 10005 元 / 吨、 10050 元 / 吨；出口 FOB 价格亦保持稳定。 本周工业硅供应端继续呈现收缩态势。尽管期货盘面有所修复，但现货市场持续疲软， 加上生产成本高企，压制了企业的生产积极性。当前，甘肃、宁夏等地企业面临亏损困境， 就连新疆等传统低成本区域的企业也已陷入亏损，部分企业正着手安排减产，四川、云南等 高成本地区维持生产的难度则进一步加大。 下游需求端支撑仍然偏弱，三大下游板块表现不一。有机硅与铝合金价格虽有上涨，但 对工业硅实际需求拉动有限：有机硅价格从 13700 元 / 吨涨至 14000 元 / ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2026 年 01 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on lithium carbonate, nickel, copper, and aluminum markets. Lithium Carbonate Market - **Price Trends**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen significantly due to increased acceptable inventory, shifting market sentiment from pessimism to optimism. The price fluctuation range is expected to be between 100,000 to 180,000 RMB/ton in 2026, with a projected surplus of nearly 100,000 tons [1][10]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a notable increase in visible inventory, with total market inventory rising by 300 tons to 110,000 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 700 tons to 18,000 tons, while downstream inventory decreased by 2,400 tons to 17,000 tons [2]. - **Future Influences**: Key factors affecting lithium carbonate prices include policy changes, financial attributes, and annual supply-demand patterns. The market is currently in a state of excitement, with a significant focus on the impact of battery prices on economic viability [4][6]. Nickel Market - **Current Status**: The nickel market is characterized by a historical oversupply in stainless steel, nickel sulfate, and pure nickel supply chains, with inventories at multi-year highs. The demand from the stainless steel sector remains strong, but the battery sector is under pressure due to the rise of lithium iron phosphate [11]. - **Demand Growth**: Despite the oversupply, the stainless steel industry is expected to continue as the main growth driver, with a projected growth rate of 6.8% in stainless steel production for the first nine months of 2025 [11]. Copper Market - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The copper market is expected to face a fragile supply situation with stable demand growth. The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be particularly tight, with a projected increase in refined copper production of 1.9% globally [12][19]. - **Price Predictions**: Copper prices are expected to remain strong, driven by strategic metal resource narratives and stable demand growth from traditional and emerging sectors [12][19]. - **Long-term Expectations**: Long-term forecasts suggest that copper prices may rise significantly post-2027 due to ongoing supply issues and investment challenges [16][17]. Aluminum Market - **Price Forecast**: Aluminum prices are expected to reach historical highs in 2026 but may not maintain the extreme levels seen at the beginning of the year. The market is anticipated to remain in a tight balance, with a focus on policy changes and emerging demand dynamics [22][30]. - **Demand Trends**: Overall aluminum demand is projected to grow at a rate of over 2%, although significant growth drivers are lacking. The construction sector's performance is expected to improve, but the photovoltaic sector may become a new drag on demand [30]. Additional Insights - **Investment Strategies**: The first quarter of 2026 is seen as a critical period for bullish strategies, with caution advised as the market approaches the Chinese New Year due to potential inventory accumulation [24]. - **Global Inventory Levels**: By the end of 2025, global visible inventory levels have risen to approximately 800,000 tons, indicating a recovery from pandemic-induced low inventory levels [21]. - **Emerging Technologies**: AI investments are expected to have a limited direct impact on copper consumption but may drive demand in the energy sector through increased electricity usage [20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the non-ferrous metals industry.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, with both prices falling on January 13, 2026 [1][3]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, supported by the increase in coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices under the situation of reduced supply and demand. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost and production - cut expectations [3]. - For polysilicon, due to the new policy of canceling export tax rebates for photovoltaic value - added tax and the failure of coordinated price - support efforts, the short - term is to stay on the sidelines, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to short on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 13, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8710 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton (-1.65%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 242,469 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 12 was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton. The prices in various regions remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The total social inventory in major industrial silicon regions on January 8 was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. - **Consumption Analysis** - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13700 - 14000 yuan/ton. The cancellation of the photovoltaic value - added tax export tax rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand, and strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, but the demand boost has not yet appeared. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak - shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable and slightly weak [2]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 13, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 49,655 yuan/ton and closing at 49,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 48,844 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 28,379 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, a decrease of 1.30% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW, an increase of 13.11% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 0.80% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.52GW, an increase of 3.34% month - on - month [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium - to - long - term, short on rallies. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract will maintain weak oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are experiencing price fluctuations, with industrial silicon prices showing a slight decline and polysilicon prices also decreasing, influenced by supply and demand dynamics and recent policy changes in the photovoltaic sector [2][5][7]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon futures prices have shown a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 8635 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton or 1.65% from the previous day [2]. - The supply of industrial silicon remains stable, with prices for various grades holding steady across multiple regions, including East China and Xinjiang [2][13]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [13]. Demand Side - The demand for polysilicon is expected to rise due to the recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, although the actual impact may not be felt until April when the policy takes effect [3][7]. - The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and the demand for aluminum alloys is showing marginal weakness [3][7]. Price Outlook - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, supported by cost factors and production cut expectations, while the extent of price increases will depend on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction [4][14]. - Polysilicon futures prices have also shown a decline, with the main contract closing at 49005 yuan/ton, down 4.45% from the previous trading day [5][18]. Market Strategy - The recent policy changes in the photovoltaic industry may lead to short-term spikes in polysilicon demand, but the long-term effects could involve overshooting demand [7][18]. - The overall market sentiment is weak, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious stance in the short term and consider short positions in the medium to long term [7][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The black series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policy, and its impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to enter the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repair and fuel - cost increase, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, the demand is weak, and the overall pattern remains weak [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3158 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55933 tons, a net increase of 1512 tons. The main contract positions were 1.6879 million lots, a net decrease of 38760 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3303 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173103 tons, a net increase of 60866 tons. The main contract positions were 1.4403 million lots, a net increase of 12752 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The output of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 819.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.36% (- 3.00), and the positions changed by - 1527 lots to 653300 lots. The weighted positions were 989800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron - ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipment from Brazil decreased significantly, and the shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased. The shipment from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume continued to increase [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast - furnace utilization rate in some areas recovered, and the steel - mill profitability decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill imported - ore inventory increased but remained at a low level [5]. - Outlook: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel - mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.24% at 5916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 yuan/ton [8]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.28% at 5682 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The ferrosilicon showed relative strength due to rumors but then gave up the gains [9]. - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand structure of manganese silicon is loose, with high inventory and weak downstream demand, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10]. - Future drivers: The market direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.80% at 1191.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1525.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 143 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.41% at 1745.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1490 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Views - Previous drivers: The bullish commodity - market atmosphere and the news of coking - coal production - capacity reduction [15]. - Outlook: The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 120). The weighted positions changed by + 3755 lots to 378736 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 565 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Supply: The production in December was stable, the furnace - opening number in the southwest decreased to a low level, and the supply improvement was limited [19]. - Demand: The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was weak. The demand from the organic - silicon industry was relatively stable [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 49005 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.98% (- 990). The weighted positions changed by - 2302 lots to 88766 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 54.25 yuan/kg, and the basis was 5745 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment led to price weakness [21]. - Fundamental analysis: The spot price increased, but downstream hesitation persisted. The supply pressure may ease if the production - cut plan of a leading enterprise is implemented [22]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 4.11% (- 47). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 134.80 million cases (- 2.37%) [24]. - Strategy Views: The glass daily melting volume decreased, and the fuel - cost increase boosted the price. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the high inventory restricted the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 2.18% (- 27). The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 16.44 million tons [25]. - Strategy Views: The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall pattern remained weak [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - The medium - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to the risk of structural imbalance in global inventories and supply concerns from the Venezuela event. However, real - end demand is weak at high prices [2]. Zinc - In the context of geopolitical tensions, the non - ferrous metal sector moves upward in resonance. The zinc price is supported by tight ore supply but may face pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with support around 23800 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by macro and policy expectations but faces pressure from supply growth and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to be high - level and widely volatile [7]. Tin - The supply of tin may increase with the potential resumption of mines in Myanmar, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to hold previously bought call options [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to be low - level and volatile, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices are falling. The market will continue to accumulate inventory in January. The price may be supported at 48000 - 50000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market fluctuates at a high level. Cost is the main driving factor, but the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [14]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate futures are rising. The supply side has a slight increase expectation, and downstream demand has some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity and regulatory risks should be noted [16]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market. Short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile [18]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock. It is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand in the off - season. Short - term price is expected to adjust in a shock pattern [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 102510 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous value. The refined - scrap spread is 5042 yuan/ton, down 7.96% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month. Global visible inventories are at a high level, but 50% are in the US and difficult to flow to non - US regions [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24330 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The refined zinc output in December was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic zinc mine production has declined for two consecutive months, and the zinc ore TC is at a low level. The downstream start - up rate and orders are weak [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24300 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons. The inventory is accumulating [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 380200 yuan/ton, up 3.16%. The import volume of tin ore in November increased significantly month - on - month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may accelerate, and demand shows regional differences [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is at 8835 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be weak. The production may decrease by 1 - 2 million tons, and demand may decline by about 1 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is below 50000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline, and the market will continue to accumulate inventory [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM ADC12 is 23950 yuan/ton. The cost is the main driving factor, but the supply and demand are weak [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in December was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [14]. Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159500 yuan/ton, up 4.93%. The supply side has a slight increase, and downstream demand has some resilience [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate was 99200 tons, and the demand was 130118 tons. The inventory is changing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 145200 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 30.08% [18]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel is stable. The price is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50% month - on - month, and the social inventory is decreasing [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market are neutral, with both supply and demand in a weak - reality stage. The futures price of industrial silicon will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of industrial silicon oscillated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,755 yuan/ton, with a 0.75% increase. The trading volume was 269,300 lots, the open interest was 238,877 lots, a net decrease of 827 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net reduction of 1,799 lots, and short positions had a net increase of 5,299 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices remained stable. The price of 553 - grade in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the first quarter, the monthly average output is expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weak. The organic silicon operating rate is stable without fulfilling the expected centralized production cuts. Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated stage from anti - involution to anti - monopoly policy correction, with monthly output decreasing month - on - month. Industrial silicon inventories are high, enterprises are scattered, the market is dull, and spot prices are weakly stable, making it difficult to break through the upside. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3.4 Market News - On January 12th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by