新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 目前工业硅盘面主要受整体商品情绪以及政策端消息震荡运行。需关注后续是否有相关产能退出政策，目前工业 硅估值偏低，若有政策推动，盘面或有上涨空间。 供给自律落地预期增强，价格震荡上行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-15，工业硅期货价格震荡上行，主力合约2605开于8505元/吨，最后收于8350元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.15）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓200749手，2025-12-14仓单总数为8743手，较前一日变化124 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月12日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计56.1万吨，较前一周增加0.3万吨。其中社会普通仓库13.6万吨， 较上周增加0.5万吨，社会交割仓库42.5万吨(含未注册成仓单及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices opened high and closed low. The market is expected to remain in a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with potential to reach 10000 yuan/ton if production drops significantly, or fall to 7500 yuan/ton under certain negative scenarios. Attention should be paid to position management [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices are oscillating higher. There is a contradiction between the strong futures market and weak spot demand. The current price is in a high - level oscillation. Future trends depend on the extent of production cuts. The trading strategy for the main contract (now 2605) is to wait and see [3]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, but Indonesian exports increased in November, causing tin prices to decline. However, considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [5]. Nickel - The nickel market is under fundamental pressure. Macro factors have limited impact on nickel prices. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has fallen, and domestic inventory is increasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 110000 - 118000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and nickel - iron prices have stopped falling, providing cost support. However, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose overall. The fundamentals are in a situation of strong supply and demand. The market is affected by news such as the slow resumption of production of large mines. The price may be strong in the short - term under the influence of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement in the off - season [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in an oversupply situation, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may face a pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate between 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [12]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating. The supply side is gradually shifting from loose to tight, and demand has shown structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract support at 23000 - 23200 yuan/ton [15]. Copper - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The high price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. The supply side may face tightness, and the demand is being suppressed. The price is expected to have limited downside space, with the main contract support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are oscillating strongly, with strong cost support but weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained stable on December 12 compared to December 11, while the basis decreased significantly. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 16.39% [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 150.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Most inventories increased slightly on a weekly or daily basis, such as the Xinjiang factory - level inventory increasing by 3.39% on a weekly basis [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the N - type material basis decreased by 41.13% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose by 2.56%. The spreads between different contracts showed significant fluctuations, such as the near - month to the first - continuous contract spread decreasing by 1206.25% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Polysilicon imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices decreased by 1.76% on December 16 compared to the previous value, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 22.73% [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 8.14%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 18.06% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. Refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.66%, and social inventory increased by 5.59% [5]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices decreased by 0.72% and 0.70% respectively. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1.92% [7]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Costs**: The production cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel decreased by 3.60% [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed small changes, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 5.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.73% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable, while that of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 20.99% [8]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, such as the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remaining at 57 US dollars/wet ton [8]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed slightly, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36%. Stainless steel imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.69%, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.30% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.69% and 0.71% respectively. The basis increased by 0.69% [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11%. In October, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.54%, and the alumina average price remained stable. The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased by 1977 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different aluminum contracts showed various changes, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 35 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and overseas production decreased by 3.50%. In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.17%, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 8.58% [12]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.97%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 813.46 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.03 [15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.57%, and LME inventory increased by 4.12% [15]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.42%, and the premium increased by 80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61%. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.51% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.62%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 0.54% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.69%. The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84%. In October, imports decreased by 7.06%, and exports increased by 31.49% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08% [18].

Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]

工业硅日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

平台公司提振，多晶硅偏强震荡 工业硅/多晶硅 20251215 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格偏弱。截至2025年12月12日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8800元/吨，环比上 周下跌100元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约大幅走低，截至12月12日主力合约收8390元/吨。 供应：新疆地区因上周新增硅炉产量释放，目前硅价低位北方大厂有协商自律意愿，且冬季空气污染多发，石河子重 污染天气预警对硅企生产有所影响，关注开工变化情况；云南地区开工维持低位；四川地区在产硅企季节性减产，在 产硅企稀少。整体而言，工业硅产量环比小幅回落。 需求：多晶硅周度开工基本稳定，周内有部分粉单订单招标；有机硅开工小幅下降，下游持稳为主；铝合金企业开工 率小幅下降，重庆地区因天气污染有减产。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计12月11日工业硅全国社会库存共计56.1万吨，较上周增加0.3万吨。 后市研判：目前工业硅供需偏弱，高库存去 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about environmental protection speculation in winter. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to buy long - term contracts during peak seasons at low prices. The price trend of industrial silicon is also closely related to the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, production cuts on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected production cuts on the demand side due to weak terminal sales. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout in the industrial silicon industry, there is a lack of confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - regulation. - Electricity costs account for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect electricity costs and then industrial silicon prices. In December, the operating rate of industrial silicon producers is expected to decline. Downstream, the polysilicon industry is reducing production, the silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, and only the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable operating rate [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - Near - term trading logic (before the end of 2025): Environmental protection disturbances, and expected production cuts on both the supply and demand sides. - Long - term trading logic (after early 2026): The progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, and continuous attention to demand [4]. 3.1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - Sales management: For enterprises planning to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20%. - Procurement management: For enterprises planning to produce polysilicon, silicone, or aluminum alloy in the future, if the finished product price is not correlated, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with a recommended hedging ratio of 30% and use a combined options strategy (sell put options and buy call options) with a ratio of 10%. If the finished product price is correlated, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a ratio of 20%. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventory and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, they can short futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (sell call options and buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively [5]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 8, Jianghan New Materials announced that a 60,000 - ton/year trichlorosilane plant was put into trial operation in October this year, 10,000 tons of silane production capacity is planned to be put into trial operation in December, and another 10,000 tons each will be put into trial operation in mid - and late - next year. In 2027, optical fiber - grade silicon tetrachloride and electronic - grade tetraethyl orthosilicate plants will be gradually built. - On December 8, GCL Technology announced that its subsidiaries and other parties signed a partnership agreement to establish a limited partnership, which plans to acquire a 42.469% stake in Inner Mongolia Xinyuan Silicon Materials Technology Co., Ltd. from Hongyuan Green Energy and Tibet Ruihua for a total consideration of RMB 2.01 billion [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch No events to watch were mentioned in the report [7]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract on Friday was 8,412 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%. The trading volume was 619,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 113.65%, and the open interest was 460,100 lots, an increase of 19,000 lots week - on - week. The monthly spread between SI2601 and SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,619 lots, an increase of 1,331 lots week - on - week. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price quickly fell below the 5 - day moving average this week. The disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increase and price decline". The current price quickly fell below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth showed signs of widening. It is necessary to focus on the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton, and from Thursday to Friday, there was a characteristic of "short - position exit and price stabilization" [10][11]. 3.3.2 Option Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been strengthening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has also been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been rising, indicating an increasing bearish sentiment in the market [13]. 3.3.3 Term Structure Analysis - The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable. The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is at a relatively high level [17][19]. 3.3.4 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown different degrees of decline. The prices of industrial silicon powder have also decreased. The price of trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index remained unchanged, the price of silicone DMC was stable, and the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased slightly [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit - Since hitting the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit of the silicone industry is recovering [23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rates of industrial silicon from different data sources showed different trends. The weekly production of some data sources increased, while others decreased. The operating rates also showed mixed trends [30]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and warehouses showed different changes [47][48][50]. 3.5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The total inventory of polysilicon increased slightly, with different changes in the inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [51][52][54]. 3.5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys decreased slightly, and the inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased, while the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy decreased significantly [58][59]. 3.5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.12% [64]. 3.5.5 Terminal - The report shows the data trends of China's commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity [67].

2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current production cut scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and the follow - up depends on actual production cuts. The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [3][16][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 8435 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - fed 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 3260 yuan/ton to 58770 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Partial Start of Production Cuts, Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform Launched - **Industrial silicon**: This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures dropped significantly. Factories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Gansu had changes in the number of furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will be in tight balance in December, but there may be inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year. The current factory inventory pressure is not large, and the basis has only strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current futures price has reached the cash cost line of 50% of the monthly output [11]. - **Organic silicon**: This week, the organic silicon price remained stable. Some device operations changed, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.84%, the weekly output was 4.62 tons, a decrease of 4.74% week - on - week, and the inventory was 4.44 tons, a decrease of 2.63% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. Considering the production cuts of leading enterprises, the planned production in December is expected to be 11.2 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [13]. - **Silicon wafers**: This week, the silicon wafer price stopped falling. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The planned production in December is 45GW. After the production cuts, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [14]. - **Battery cells**: This week, the battery cell price continued to decline. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.28 yuan/watt, and the G12R model remained at 0.275 yuan/watt. The planned production in December is 47.8GW. The cost pressure is rising, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise [14]. - **Components**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. The planned production in December will drop significantly to 37GW. The price is expected to remain stable [15]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The new warehouse receipts are difficult to digest. The current futures valuation is low, and the strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall. The strategy is to focus on long - buying opportunities on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Hot News Compilation - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, aiming to solve the "involution" - style vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry. The platform will operate in a dual - track mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible use of production capacity" [18]. - The winning bid candidates for the 2.5GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement of China Three Gorges Corporation were announced, with the bid price ranging from 0.75 to 0.763 yuan/W and an average price of 0.756 yuan/W [19]. 3.5 Industrial Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data tracking charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [20][30][34][40][48][55].