1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 6, 2025, covering multiple metal sectors such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold had a V - shaped reversal, closing up 0.22% at $3380.86 per ounce; London silver rose for the third consecutive day, closing up 1.06% at $37.81 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold's main contract closed up 0.01% at 784.4 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed up 1.15% at 9178 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index oscillated within a range and almost closed flat at 98.727. The 10 - year US Treasury yield temporarily stopped falling at 4.2021%. The RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, closing down 0.05% at 7.1834. [2] Important Information - Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with drug tariffs up to 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The final value of the US 7 - month S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, higher than the expected 55.2 and the previous value of 55.2. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - Due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payrolls data last week, the "strong reality" of the US economy's resilience has loosened. The newly released ISM and S&P services PMI point in different directions, and the precious metals market mainly trades towards weak expectations. [2] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, existing long positions can be considered to be held. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Last night, the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78070 yuan per ton, down 0.52%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 1167 lots to 470,000 lots. The LME closed at $9634.5 per ton, down 0.65%. The LME inventory decreased by 14,275 tons to 153,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 262,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.1, lower than expected. Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs, increase tariffs on India, and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if necessary. Chile's copper exports in July were 179,996 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,396,851 tons, with 40,943 tons of copper and 997,013 tons of copper ore and concentrate exported to China. [6] Logic Analysis - The supply of copper mines is disturbed, and the production of smelters at home and abroad is differentiated. The inventory of non - US regions is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. [7][9] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term supply is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 77,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [10] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 3 yuan to 3207 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the northern comprehensive spot price of alumina by Aladdin down 10 yuan to 3270 yuan, and the national weighted index down 10.6 yuan to 3289.3 yuan. [11] Important Information - The full - cost of the alumina industry in July was 2905 yuan per ton, down 66 yuan from the previous month, with a profit of about 275 yuan per ton. A mine's memorandum was revoked, and its shipping terminal was suspended. India traded 30,000 tons of alumina at an FOB price of $377.25 per ton. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 6627 tons to 13,242 tons on August 5. The national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.75 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.8%. [12][13][15] Logic Analysis - The theoretical supply - demand surplus of alumina has significantly expanded, the spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. Before the significant increase in warehouse receipts, the alumina price has certain support in the range of 3000 - 3100 yuan. [16] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the alumina price will oscillate above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. Pay attention to the low - warehouse - receipt risk when entering the delivery month. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [16] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 30 yuan to 20,525 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China all increased. [18][20] Important Information - The White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, which will take effect on August 7. On August 5, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons to 44,287 tons. [20] Trading Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is strengthening. The LME aluminum inventory is increasing slightly, and the domestic market is gradually returning to fundamentals. The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and pay attention to the peak inventory in the off - season and the opportunity of the spread expansion. [20] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the aluminum price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum futures is between 40 - 70. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [21] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 19,955 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions all increased. [23] Important Information - As of July 31, the weekly production of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 0.19 million tons to 13.98 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.51 million tons. Some new projects in the new energy vehicle lightweight parts manufacturing are planned to be put into production. In July, the ADC12 industry's theoretical profit was 63 yuan per ton, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan compared with the previous month. [24][25] Trading Logic - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the import volume is low, the downstream demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price. [26] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate with the aluminum price. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spot price is at a discount of more than 300 yuan to the futures price. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market fell 0.15% to $2750 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.07% to 22,300 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index increased its positions by 2137 lots to 207,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was between 22,280 - 22,375 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was poor. [30] Important Information - Western Mining's zinc production in the first half of 2025 was 62,875 tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and Glencore's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 251,600 tons, up 19% year - on - year. Glencore adjusted its 2025 zinc production guidance to 940,000 - 980,000 tons. [30][31] Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, the smelter production is active, and the consumption is in the off - season with obvious inventory accumulation. [32] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term zinc price may oscillate. Consider shorting on rallies due to the increasing supply and off - season consumption. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [33] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.61% to $1975.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 contract rose 0.24% to 16,755 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index reduced its positions by 283 lots to 112,500 lots. The SMM1 lead price fell 100 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand. [35] Important Information - Some regenerated lead smelting enterprises in East and Central China may adjust their scrap battery purchase prices if the lead price continues to weaken. The environmental protection work in Anhui may affect local regenerated lead smelting enterprises. [35][36] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead concentrates is tight, the price of lead - containing waste is high, the supply of primary lead is increasing, the production of regenerated lead is in a loss but still has an increment, and the downstream lead - battery enterprise purchasing has improved. [37] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the lead price may maintain a low - level oscillation. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [42] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell to $15,055 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 2172 tons to 211,254 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 fell to 120,500 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different nickel products changed. [40] Important Information - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of nickel batteries, and the nickel benchmark price in Indonesia has increased slightly. The US Fed may cut interest rates. [40][41] Logic Analysis - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the market's trading of the US economic recession affect the nickel price. The nickel market has an oversupply expectation, and the inventory is slowly increasing. [43] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money put options. [44] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless steel main contract SS2509 fell to 12,935 yuan per ton, and the index increased its positions by 3063 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [46] Important Information - Zimbabwe plans to ban chromium ore exports, and the chromium ore inventory in China has reached a record high. [47] Logic Analysis - The market trades the US economic recession expectation. The cost of stainless steel has increased slightly, the production is expected to increase in August, the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. [48] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. [48][49] Group 11: Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin 2509 contract closed at 266,950 yuan per ton, up 0.3%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1105 lots to 47,716 lots. The spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai Metal Market increased, and the actual demand is still weak. [50] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, and Trump announced tariff plans. [50][51] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which boosts the tin price. The LME inventory is low, the supply of tin mines is tight, and the demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. [51] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the tin price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. [52] Group 12: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures rose due to the impact of coking coal, and the main contract closed at 8450 yuan per ton. The spot price of industrial silicon generally fell by 100 - 250 yuan per ton. [55] Important Information - Hesheng Silicon Industry will reduce industrial silicon production capacity. The production of DMC and polysilicon is expected to increase in August. [55] Comprehensive Analysis - If leading manufacturers resume production in August, there will be a slight surplus of industrial silicon; otherwise, there may be a supply - demand gap of 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The social inventory is high, and the spot is not tight. [55][56] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it may rise due to sentiment in the short term but will be weak after the sentiment fades. For the options strategy, there is no recommendation. For the arbitrage strategy, conduct a reverse spread arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts. [56] Group 13: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures rose due to the increase in coking coal prices, and the main contract closed at 50,330 yuan per ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon are given. [58] Important Information - The MIIT issued a notice on energy - saving inspections for the polysilicon industry. [58] Comprehensive Analysis - The polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, and there may be a surplus of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The expectation of polysilicon capacity integration is strengthening, and the expected futures price after integration is 60,000 - 65,000 yuan per ton. [58] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, hold long positions. For the arbitrage strategy, hold long positions in polysilicon and short positions in industrial silicon for the long term, and close the reverse spread arbitrage on the far - month polysilicon contracts. [59] Group 14: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract of lithium carbonate fell to 67,840 yuan per ton, and the index reduced its positions by 11,764 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 1840 tons to 14,443 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased. [60] Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in July were 23,824 tons, with 20,930 tons of lithium carbonate, and 13,633 tons were exported to China. The new - energy vehicle wholesale forecast for 2025 was slightly adjusted. The production of some lithium mines is normal. Some new lithium carbonate production projects have been put into operation. [60][61] Logic Analysis - The supply - side news is bearish, the long - position funds are leaving, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. [62] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate downward to find support. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money call options. [65]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [6] 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by supply and demand changes and potential industry measures. The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies, with large short - term fluctuations and suitable for mid - to long - term bottom - up long positions [2][6] 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 8345 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 181,168 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,806 lots, an increase of 494 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 (-200) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9900 (-200) yuan/ton [1] - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 12100 - 12700 yuan/ton. The supply of silicone gradually recovered, but the demand was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 48615 yuan/ton and closing at 50330 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 127,587 lots, and the trading volume was 433,130 lots [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [3] - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [3] Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The production plan of silicon wafer enterprises was inconsistent, and the production of leading professional silicon wafer enterprises might increase [5] - **Battery**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable. The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 57 - 58GW [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained unchanged [5] 4. Strategy Industrial Silicon - The industrial fundamentals have little change. The supply has a certain increase, the consumption increases month - on - month in August, and the inventory decreases slightly, but the overall inventory pressure is still large. It is expected that the short - term disk will fluctuate widely [2] Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the interval. In the mid - to long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [6]

Report Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.37%. The trading volume was 311,623 lots, and the open interest was 181,168 lots, with a net increase of 13,572 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the production increase capacity of organic silicon was limited in the short term. The monthly supply and demand of industrial silicon remained in a loose pattern [4] - Market sentiment cooled down, and the trends of previous varieties in the same sector had diverged. Industrial silicon lacked the implementation of clear stimulus policies. The spot price rose and then fell again. After the futures entered the daily short - term trend, it stopped falling in the short term. The strengthening of coking coal and coke prices on the cost side drove a rebound, but the rebound space of futures was limited due to the lack of major drivers [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,806 lots, with a net increase of 494 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Xingfa Group stated that the actual production capacity of its DMC was about 300,000 tons/year. The increase in DMC price had a positive impact on the company's organic silicon business segment. If only considering the production capacity factor, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the organic silicon price, it was expected to increase the company's annual profit by about 3 billion yuan [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors: The China-US trade negotiation has been postponed. China's anti-involution and stable growth policies have significantly boosted the sentiment in the industrial product market. In July, China's manufacturing PMI decreased seasonally, and the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. The Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing fiscal counter-cyclical adjustment, supporting traditional industry transformation and the growth of emerging industries, promoting consumption, and expanding domestic demand [3]. - Supply side: The operating rate in Xinjiang dropped below 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The supply side showed a passive contraction, with social inventory declining from a high level and warehouse receipt inventory decreasing due to the monthly decline in domestic production [3][56]. - Demand side: The spot price of polysilicon rebounded significantly, but a large increase in production volume was expected. Silicon wafers could not cover the high costs, but battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, driving consumption. However, battery prices had limited upward space due to the drag of centralized demand. Component markets had high quotes but low transactions because of the weak demand for domestic distributed projects. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken. The aluminum alloy production remained stable due to continuous orders from the automotive sector. Overall, industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in August [3][57]. - Market outlook: The futures price of industrial silicon was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [3][57]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 July Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Futures price**: In July 2025, the industrial silicon futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main 2509 contract fluctuated between 7705 - 10060 yuan/ton. The price center rebounded compared to the previous month, and the volatility increased. The anti-involution and stable growth policies boosted market sentiment, but the contraction of polysilicon production capacity might drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3. The operating rate in Xinjiang in July was around 50%, and the increase in the operating rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. As of the end of July, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260. From the demand side, the polysilicon market mainly had historical order replenishment transactions, the silicon wafer market continued to raise prices but could not cover costs, the battery market had limited price increase space, and the component market had a situation of high quotes but low transactions. As of July 31, the main 2509 contract closed at 8760 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 8.7% [8]. - **Spot market**: In July, the total number of open furnaces of industrial silicon in China was 260, an increase of 45 compared to the previous month. The average production cost decreased by 1.64% month-on-month. The operating rate in Xinjiang decreased to around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The social inventory decreased slightly to 53.5 tons. The spot market rebounded to above 10,000 yuan and then quickly declined. By the end of July, the prices of mainstream 553 grades rebounded, the price of 441 decreased, the price of 421 rebounded significantly, and the price of 3303 might be adjusted downward in the next month [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The anti-involution and stable growth policies were clearly defined. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July proposed an anti-involution policy framework, aiming to address the imbalance between supply and demand in the macro - economy, especially in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic component, and e - commerce platform sectors. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to introduce stable growth plans for key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, providing support for the profit of large - scale industries [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: In July, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang was around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The output in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was stable. The total industrial silicon output in July was 33.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. As of July 28, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260, and the overall operating rate increased to 32.7%. It was expected that the operating rate in August would remain at a low level of around 35%, and the output of mainstream grades of industrial silicon would be restricted by policies in the long - term [22][23]. - **Export**: From January to June this year, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 21.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In June, the export volume was 6.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The export destinations were mainly Southeast Asian countries. It was expected that the export volume from July to August would remain stable at 6 - 7 tons [32]. - **Inventory**: By July 31, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 54 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1.4% month - on - month. The decrease in warehouse receipt inventory was mainly due to the monthly decline in domestic production. It was expected that the social inventory would continue to decline in August [35]. - **Demand**: - **Photovoltaic industry**: In July, the polysilicon output was 10.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%. The price of polysilicon increased significantly. The price of silicon wafers continued to rise but could not cover costs. The battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, but the price increase space was limited. The component market had high quotes but low transactions. It was expected that the overall demand for photovoltaic in August would decline significantly, and the new installed capacity in 2025 was expected to drop to around 250GW [37][38][39]. - **Silicone industry**: In July, the output of silicone DMC was 20.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. The average operating rate of silicone monomer enterprises increased to 72.1%. The spot price of DMC rebounded. The monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in August [40]. - **Aluminum alloy industry**: From January to June, the aluminum alloy output was 909.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In June, the output was 166.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. The production of aluminum rods in different regions varied, and the total production would continue to run stably. It was expected that the aluminum alloy output would decline slightly in August [42]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic factors would continue to support the market. The supply side would remain in a passive contraction pattern, and the demand side would enter a slow - down cycle in August. Industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [56][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon price has declined, while the polysilicon price has remained high and stable. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase significantly in August due to the increase in furnace openings by silicon enterprises. The polysilicon production is also expected to rise, but the demand for silicon wafers may decline. The organic silicon industry has a certain price increase and strong price - holding intention, while the aluminum - silicon alloy industry has weak demand and declining prices. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - **Cost and Profit**: In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, while the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. Overall, the cost side has weak support for the silicon price. The average profit of industrial silicon 553 and 421 in June was - 2,361 yuan/ton and - 2,049 yuan/ton respectively, showing a month - on - month recovery [3][37]. - **Supply**: The number of furnace openings of silicon enterprises has increased. In Xinjiang, the previously reduced - production enterprises have recovered; in Yunnan and Sichuan, the operation has increased steadily. It is expected that more silicon enterprises will increase furnace openings in August, with a significant overall increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. In July, the output of polysilicon is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons, and there will still be some growth in August. The organic silicon industry has a weak purchase of industrial silicon due to an accident in an individual enterprise, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures price has remained high, and the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As the price rises, part of the factory inventory has transferred to the intermediate link and futures - cash traders, and the social inventory has decreased [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the increase in enterprise operation, the silicon price support has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Polysilicon - **Supply**: In July, some enterprises increased production, mainly in the southwest and Qinghai regions, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The price of downstream silicon wafers has continued to rise, but the silicon wafer quotation cannot cover the full cost. It is expected that the production schedule in July will drop to about 52GW. The battery orders are short - term positive, and the component end has shown a situation of rising first and then falling [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the total polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW. As of August 1, the total polysilicon futures warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the polysilicon price has declined after reaching a high. Fundamentally, the supply side of silicon materials has a strong expectation of incremental supply, and the demand side has no major changes. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 40,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Organic Silicon - **Supply**: In July, the DMC start - up rate was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the output was 199,800 tons, showing a month - on - month decline [92]. - **Price**: The organic silicon price has rebounded. As of August 1, the average price of DMC was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average price of silicone oil was 14,400 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [97]. - **Market Situation**: The monomer factories have received orders smoothly, and due to the low factory inventory pressure, they have a strong intention to hold prices. However, because the downstream inventory is sufficient, the purchase intention has declined after restocking [97]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: On the week of July 31, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 54.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 53.1%, remaining flat month - on - month [106]. - **Price**: The aluminum - silicon alloy price has declined. As of August 1, the average price of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the average price of A356 was 20,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [109].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little. In August, both supply and demand will increase, and there may be a slight reduction in inventory overall, but the total inventory pressure is significant. With the cooling of sentiment caused by anti - involution, the industrial silicon futures market may experience a weak and oscillating correction in the near term [2]. - After continuous increases, polysilicon has seen a correction. It is expected to have strong support around 45,000 yuan/ton. The details of the anti - involution plan in the photovoltaic industry are still being determined, and the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. In the medium to long term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout on dips [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Price and Trading Volume - On August 4, 2025, the futures price of industrial silicon dropped significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,490 yuan/ton and closed at 8,360 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 176,164 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,312 lots, a change of - 204 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. In July 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [1]. Consumption - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12,100 - 12,700 yuan/ton. The non - affected units of the Shandong accident monomer plant have gradually resumed normal operation, while the affected units need renovation and reconstruction, with the completion time undetermined. The matching degree of transactions has decreased because downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material inventories and limited purchasing意愿 [1]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon Price and Trading Volume - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely. It opened at 48,800 yuan/ton and closed at 48,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 106,749 lots (99,344 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 296,610 lots [3]. Supply and Inventory - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 5.76%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW, a month - on - month change of 1.57%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a month - on - month change of 3.92%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.00GW, a month - on - month change of - 1.79% [3]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range trading - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

升力度有限，叠加市场上周对大吃小产能的传言，后续预计产能兼并重组加剧，但潜在产能在8月份逐步释 放，预计对工业硅需求小幅增加，铝合金领域，企业多按需补库，库存继续增长，价格下行，处于被动去 免责声明 库存，对工业硅需求来说难有拉动。整体而言，三大下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现放缓趋势。操作上 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 工业硅产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8360 | -140 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 176164 | -18176 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -55736 | 52 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50516 | -128 | | | 9-10月工业硅价差 | -5 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9450 | -250 421#硅平均价(日,元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillatory [10] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillatory [12] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bearish [91] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with short - term prices expected to oscillate due to factors such as factory resumption and demand changes in downstream industries [10]. - Polysilicon production increases due to the resumption of large - scale southwest production capacity, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules increase slightly. Short - term prices may oscillate, and future capacity clearance is expected to accelerate [12]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has ebbed, and supply - side disturbances have been resolved. With limited demand growth and inventory transfer rather than consumption by end - users, short - term prices are expected to be weak [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index is at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, up 1.04% weekly, and down 9.03% annually. Exchange rates, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel all show different price changes [7]. - **New Energy Metals**: Industrial silicon is at 8,500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% daily, 12.60% weekly, and 22.62% annually. Lithium carbonate is at 68,920 yuan/ton, up 0.94% daily, down 14.41% weekly, and down 10.61% annually [7]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 78,600 tons, up 4.59% week - on - week. Main production areas like Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia all show different degrees of production increases [10]. - **Demand**: In the polysilicon sector, weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, with inventory accumulation. In the organic silicon sector, DMC weekly production is 47,800 tons, up 4.82% week - on - week [10]. - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 696,600 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week, and industry inventory is 444,000 tons, up 0.25% week - on - week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,109 yuan, down 0.14% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 96 yuan, down 221 yuan/ton week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Yunnan. 7 - month production is 106,300 tons, up 5.10% month - on - month, and 8 - month production schedule is 106,800 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month [12]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 11.84GW, up 4.78% week - on - week, with inventory reduction [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 275,800 tons, up 0.15% week - on - week [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,333 yuan, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 3,417 yuan, up 379 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 17,300 tons, down 7.31% week - on - week. Different production methods (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake) show different production trends [91]. - **Imports**: In June, lithium carbonate imports were 17,000 tons, down 16.31% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 427,600 tons, down 17.25% month - on - month [91]. - **Demand**: In the lithium iron phosphate system, material weekly production is 69,200 tons, down 0.87% week - on - week. In the ternary system, material weekly production is 16,100 tons, up 1.07% week - on - week [91]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 141,700 tons, down 1.01% week - on - week. Warehouse receipt inventory is 6,600 tons, down 43.32% week - on - week [91]. - **Cost and Profit**: For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 76,215 yuan/ton, up 2.96% week - on - week, and the production profit is - 7,136 yuan/ton, down 1,088 yuan/ton week - on - week [91].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Prices**: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].