Report Overview - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 18, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month - on - month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin's offer weakens, subsequent purchases are emerging. Due to the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase. It is necessary to further shrink the soybean - palm oil price spread to find consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the arrival of purchased ships, the supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will rise. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The recent expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the policy - expected trading on the market. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. Consumption is limited to the rigid - demand level due to the policy premium and the unfavorable rapeseed - soybean oil price spread. There is high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened following the international market. The far - month crushing margin has weakened slightly, and the far - month Brazilian premium is high. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Driven by the expectation of China - US talks, domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the international market. The soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will suppress soybean meal prices. Downstream demand is mainly focused on fulfilling previous contracts, and the basis remains weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: There is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is lower than expected. Inventory depletion is difficult. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - month, demand is limited. Due to the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and subsequent attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **Palm Oil**: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan; P 5 - 9 is - 162 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 16 yuan; P 9 - 1 is 40 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 24 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Palm Oil Spread**: Y - P 01 is - 492 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 14 yuan; Y - P 05 is - 670 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12 yuan; Y - P 09 is - 474 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Y/M 01 is 2.5546 with a daily decrease of 0.55%; Y/M 05 is 2.7607 with a daily decrease of 0.26%; Y/M 09 is 2.5934 with a daily decrease of 0.79% [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: OI/RM 01 is 3.9544 with a daily increase of 0.15%; OI/RM 05 is 3.8555 with a daily decrease of 0.04%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5731 with a daily increase of 0.41% [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8476 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83%; palm oil 05 is 8350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.8%; palm oil 09 is 8518 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.85% [6]. - BMD palm oil main contract is 4066 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.68% [6]. - Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the basis is 284 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 20 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8014 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.1%; soybean oil 05 is 7680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%; soybean oil 09 is 8084 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.39% [11]. - CBOT soybean oil main contract is 54.69 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.76% [11]. - Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8200 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 80 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan [11]. Oilseeds Oilseed Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is 3095 with a daily decrease of 3 and a decrease rate of 0.1%; bean meal 05 is 2761 with a daily increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.11%; bean meal 09 is 3062 with a daily decrease of 12 and a decrease rate of 0.39% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2412 with a daily increase of 20 and an increase rate of 0.84%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2407 with a daily increase of 13 and an increase rate of 0.54%; rapeseed meal 09 is 2688 with a daily increase of 6 and an increase rate of 0.22% [18]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybeans**: The closing price is 1068 with no daily change and a change rate of 0% [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Soybean Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: M01 - 05 is 340 with a daily increase of 4; M05 - 09 is - 316 with a daily decrease of 8; M09 - 01 is - 24 with a daily increase of 4 [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 2 with a daily increase of 5; RM05 - 09 is - 288 with a daily increase of 2; RM09 - 01 is 290 with a daily decrease of 7 [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread**: The spread is 349 with a daily increase of 19; the futures spread is 392 with a daily increase of 18 [19].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions, favorable policies, and increased export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 8482.00 CNY, with a price increase of 3.76% [1]. - The market sentiment is bullish, with significant trading activity leading to a surge in palm oil prices [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Tensions in the Middle East have caused a spike in international crude oil prices, positively impacting the oilseed sector [1]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy expectations are favorable, boosting market sentiment [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 27%, contributing to a rise in domestic palm oil transaction volumes and inventory levels reaching 400,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Production and Export Data - Data from SPPOMA indicates a 17.24% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production for the period of June 1-10, 2025 [1]. - Export figures for Malaysian palm oil show increases of 26.4%, 32.69%, and 8.07% compared to the previous month, according to ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data [1]. - The strong export performance in May, particularly from India, along with reduced import tariffs, has further stimulated market optimism [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The domestic oilseed market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with recommendations for palm oil support levels around 7800 CNY [1]. - Caution is advised for positions above 8500 CNY due to potential inventory accumulation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, the market may maintain range - bound operation, with a current outlook of "Oscillating" [4] - **Protein Meal**: The outlook is "Oscillating". The spot is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis is expected to remain weak [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [4][6] - **Pigs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly", with near - term contracts being weaker and far - term contracts being stronger [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The outlook is that the downward trend may continue, with a current situation of "Oscillating" [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It should be treated weakly, with an outlook of "Oscillating" [8][9] - **Cotton**: Short - term "Oscillating", long - term "Oscillating Weakly" [9] - **Sugar**: Long - term, there is a downward drive; short - term, "Oscillating Weakly" [10] - **Pulp**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [10] - **Logs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly" [11][13] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, such as pigs with high inventory weights and increasing supply in the third quarter, and sugar with an expected increase in supply in the new season. Some products are affected by weather, trade policies, and other factors, like oils and fats being influenced by trade policies and overseas biodiesel policies, and rubber being affected by macro - sentiment and African tariff policies [2][4][6][7][8][9][10][11][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: The US soybean planting is nearing completion, and the growth is good. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to rise. The short - term palm oil production increase pressure may decrease marginally. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import volume may decrease. In the medium term, the market may range - bound, and currently, the sentiment has weakened [4] - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean price is expected to range - bound. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, the basis is weak, and the futures follow the international market. Oil mills can sell short on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy the basis contract or fix the price on dips [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures are weak. The wheat policy has affected the market sentiment. The import of grains is tightening, and the inventory is expected to decrease, but the continuous sharp rise is difficult to sustain [4][6] - **Pigs**: The current inventory weight is high, and the short - term price is under pressure. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term contracts are weak, and the far - term contracts are strong [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The rebound has ended, and the price has dropped. The macro - sentiment support has weakened, and the tariff policy may have a negative impact. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, and the downward trend may continue [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose, remaining weak. The BR fundamentals are neutral, and the butadiene demand is weak, but there may be short - term support [8][9] - **Cotton**: The new - crop production is expected to increase. The inventory is low, which may support the near - term contracts. The long - term price is under pressure due to the expected increase in production [9] - **Sugar**: The new season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward drive. The current price is oscillating weakly [10] - **Pulp**: The futures price is falling, and it is more likely to break below the platform. The supply and demand are weak, and the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline [10] - **Logs**: The spot price has loosened, and the futures are weak. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory removal has pressure [11][13] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][34][47][63][72][105][117][132]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's weekly export sales report is expected to show that US soybean export sales from June 1 - 5, 2025, will net increase by 10 - 70 tons, with 10 - 50 tons from the 2024 - 25 season and 0 - 20 tons from the 2025 - 26 season. US bean meal and soybean oil export sales are also expected to increase within certain ranges [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 3.53% month - on - month, with a 1.9% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.3% increase in oil extraction rate [1][2]. - CIMB predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 will increase by 1% month - on - month to 2 million tons, while exports will increase by 8% to 1.5 million tons [3]. - CIMB expects the average price of crude palm oil in 2025 to be 4,200 Malaysian ringgit per ton [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 USDA Report Forecast - For US soybean export sales as of June 5, 2025, 2024 - 25 season: net increase of 10 - 50 tons; 2025 - 26 season: net increase of 0 - 20 tons. Total net increase: 10 - 70 tons. - For US bean meal export sales, 2024 - 25 season: net increase of 15 - 40 tons; 2025 - 26 season: net increase of 0 - 5 tons. Total net increase: 15 - 45 tons. - For US soybean oil export sales, 2024 - 25 season: net increase of 0 - 2.2 tons; 2025 - 26 season: net increase of 0 - 1 tons. Total net increase: 0 - 3.2 tons [1] 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil Data - Production from June 1 - 10, 2025: month - on - month increase of 3.53%, fresh fruit bunch yield increase of 1.9%, oil extraction rate increase of 0.3% [1][2] - June 2025 inventory forecast: increase of 1% month - on - month to 2 million tons; export forecast: increase of 8% to 1.5 million tons [3] 3.3 Price and Policy Information - CIMB expects the 2025 average price of crude palm oil to be 4,200 Malaysian ringgit per ton [4] - India halved the basic import tax on crude edible oils to 10% from May 30, 2025, effectively reducing the total import tax to 16.5% [3] - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil to 10% starting from May 17, 2025 [4] 3.4 Spot Price - Spot prices of various products (including bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from June 5 to June 11, 2025, are presented in a table [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts the export prospects of US soybeans, providing overall support for US soybean futures prices. Domestically, the recent significant increase in the operation rate of domestic oil mills is expected to accelerate the inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Affected by the recent strength of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] - Oils: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a weak and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil closed higher. The Sino - US easing signal boosts the performance of soybean oil. The domestic soybean - related supply is gradually recovering with the increase in soybean arrivals, and soybean oil is expected to gradually accumulate inventory in the later period. The May Malaysian palm oil supply - demand data has a neutral impact on the market, and oils are expected to maintain a volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7694, 7970, 9149, 3047, 2557, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 64, - 146, - 39, 16, 11, and 26, and price change rates of - 0.82%, - 1.80%, - 3.15%, 0.53%, 0.43%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: There were changes in spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc. For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 was 50, and the previous value was 60 [1] International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3876 (ringgit/ton), 1050 (cents/bushel), 48 (cents/pound), and 294 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of - 44, - 8, 0, - 2, and price change rates of - 1.12%, - 0.76%, 0.57%, - 0.54% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. had different price change rates. For example, the price change rate of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was - 1.00% [1] - Basis: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. were 266, 480 respectively [1] - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, etc. had changes compared with the previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 648, - 121, etc., showing changes compared with the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. were 17,652, 340, 0 respectively, with some changes compared with the previous values [1] Industry Information - As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold 175.79 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with cumulative sales reaching 1963.45 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 128.1 million tons, and the export industry purchased 47.69 million tons [2] - From June 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.71%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1%, and the output decreased by 17.24% [2] - As of June 8, the US soybean sowing was 90% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 68% [2]

刘金鹭也提到，当前棕榈油产地仍处于增产周期，叠加主要采购国印度降低食用油进口关税，马来西亚棕榈油6月出口预期保持强劲。在供需两强的格局 下，市场对马来西亚棕榈油继续累库的预期不变。 "不过，马来西亚东部地区高温少雨的天气提高了果串出油率，缩短了果串成熟时间，从而引发了市场对后续高产的预期。"齐盛期货油脂油料分析师刘瑞 杰分析称，产地过早累库虽对应印度的低库存，且印度已将毛植物油进口关税下调，但鉴于7—9月高产季即将到来，产地销售积极性增强，主动降价销 售，反而容易使市场陷入被动。 国内市场方面，据张翠萍介绍，随着进口利润倒挂幅度大幅缩窄，国内棕榈油进口到港量有所增加，同期下游维持刚需采购，棕榈油库存从33万吨附近触 底反弹，棕榈油或提前进入累库周期。截至6月11日，棕榈油商业库存为40万吨。 6月10日，MPOB公布的马来西亚棕榈油供需报告显示，5月马来西亚棕榈油库存环比增加6.65%，整体影响偏空。6月11日，棕榈油主力合约P2509冲高回 落，收盘下跌1.8%，跌破8000元/吨关口。 市场人士认为，棕榈油价格大幅回落的原因有两点：一是原油价格走弱；二是MPOB公布的5月供需报告符合市场对马来西亚棕榈油累 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Views Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted soybean-palm oil price difference, incremental consumption is not forthcoming, and inventory is expected to increase. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil needs to be further reduced to stimulate consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: As the purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will increase accordingly. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in the supply of both palm oil and soybean oil, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recently, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the market's policy - expected trading. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal decline rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. High inventory exerts pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian soybean premiums are firm, the domestic market has strengthened following the international market, and the far - month crushing profit has slightly weakened. China's soybean imports in May were 13.918 million tons; from January to May, imports were 37.108 million tons, a 0.7% decline from the same period last year. Forecasts for June, July, and August are 11 million tons, 11.5 million tons, and 9.5 million tons respectively. Supply in the second and third quarters remains abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Under the expectation of China - US talks, the domestic soybean meal market has strengthened. Currently, the soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on soybean meal prices. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly execute previous contracts, and the enthusiasm for restocking is low, keeping the basis weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June, there is still pressure on the spot supply, downstream demand is lower than expected, and inventory reduction is difficult. Although there are some gaps in the far - month supply, the rigid demand is limited. The market performance is weak, and future attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. Key Data Summaries Fats and Oils - **Price Differences**: P 1 - 5 is 82 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Y - P 01 is - 382 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 46 yuan/ton, etc [4]. - **Palm Oil Prices**: Palm oil 01 is 7954 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.56%; BMD palm oil main contract is 3868 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.1% [7]. - **Soybean Oil Prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 7644 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 47.77 cents/pound with an increase of 0.76% [12]. Oilseeds - **Futures Prices**: Bean meal 01 is 3064 with a decline of 4 and a decline rate of 0.13%; Rapeseed meal 01 is 2349 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.3% [16][18]. - **Price Differences**: M01 - 05 is 336 with a daily increase of 4; RM01 - 05 is - 15 with a daily decrease of 6 [19].

截止北京时间6月10日，据商品基差数据显示：菜籽油、棕榈油、豆一、豆油品种合约出现'期现倒 挂'(现货价格高于期货价格)现象。 6月11日，国内期市油脂油料板块有涨有跌，棕榈油主力跌逾2%。截至目前，棕榈油主力下跌2.11%， 报7988.00元/吨；菜籽粕主力上涨0.80%，报2637.00元/吨；豆粕主力上涨0.76%，报3042.00元/吨；花生 主力下跌1.23%，报8212.00元/吨。 | 商品名称 | 现货价格 | 合约 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 基差率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 菜籽油 | 9345 | 2509 | 9186 | 159 | 1.70% | | 菜籽粕 | 2550 | 2509 | 2616 | -66 | -2.59% | | 棕榈油 | 8630 | 2509 | 8160 | 470 | 5.45% | | 豆一 | 4295 | 2509 | 4151 | 144 | 3.35% | | 豆粕 | 2952 | 2509 | 3019 | -67 | -2.27% | | 豆油 | 8024 | 2509 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 日棕榈油出口量环比增长 船货检验机构Intertek Testing Services（简称ITS）发布的数据显示，马来西亚 1-10日棕榈油产品出口量为 371,600吨，较上月同期的293,991吨增长26.4%。 月底棕榈油库存环比增加 马来西亚棕榈油总署（MPOB）公布最新一期供需月报显示，马来西亚 月底棕榈油库存较前月增加6.65%，至199万 吨。 MPOB数据显示，马来西亚 月毛棕榈油产量较前月增加5.05%，至177万吨； 月棕榈油出口量环比增加25.6% 139万 吨。 稍早公布的一份调查预估库存将在201万吨，产量料为174万吨，出口量料为130万吨。 日巴西大豆收割近乎结束，第二季玉米收割率达 巴西国家商品供应公司（Conab）公布的周度作物种植与收割报告显示，截至2025年 日，巴西2024/25年度大豆 收割率为99.9%，之前一周为99.8%，去年同期为98.8%，五年均值为99.9%。 报告同时显示，巴西2024/25年度第一季玉米收割率为90.6%，此前一周为89.6%，去年同期为88.1%，五年均值 ...