Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. With the weakening of the hype about domestic production cuts and overseas floods, the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased, and the basis of whole latex also changed. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased slightly, and there were also changes in non - standard price differences and raw material prices [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: There were changes in the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of natural rubber contracts [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased to varying degrees, and the production of China increased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and in October, domestic tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume all decreased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and there were also changes in the outbound and inbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Affected by the repeated Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations and Trump's threat to Venezuela, short - term geopolitical factors still support oil prices. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel in the short term [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc. changed [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: Although the production of soda ash has decreased significantly due to some device overhauls, and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, there is still an over - supply problem in the medium term, and the overall demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [5]. - **Glass**: In the short term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the medium and long term, the demand is expected to shrink, and the glass price will be under pressure. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure when approaching the delivery month [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts [5]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained stable, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass also decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass and soda ash decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories remained unchanged [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate showed different trends [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - based and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provides support. In the port area, due to gas restrictions in Iran, multiple devices have stopped production, and the import volume in the first quarter is expected to decline significantly, strengthening the port destocking expectation and providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices in different regions changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as MA15 and regional spreads [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises increased, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, the operating rate of downstream MTO devices decreased, and the operating rates of some traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde increased [6][7]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, the inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than in previous years, and the cost - side profit is compressed. The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, the supply is on the rise, and the upstream inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than the same period. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 futures contracts increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 [9]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the trading - company inventory of PP also decreased [9]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices increased, the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly; the operating rate of PP devices decreased slightly, the operating rate of PP powder increased, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Pure Benzene**: Although the supply - demand expectation has slightly improved due to some device overhauls, the current spot supply is sufficient, and there is an expectation of port inventory accumulation. The demand - side support is limited, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will face pressure on the upside. Short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds [11]. - **Styrene**: Although some integrated devices are under centralized overhaul, the overall operating rate is stable, and the supply is expected to remain. The demand support is limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious at the end and beginning of the month. Overall, the supply - demand of styrene is in a tight balance, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6600 [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene changed, and there were also changes in price differences such as pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha [11]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene futures contracts and spot prices increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as EB01 - EB02 and EB - BZ [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol, caprolactam, and aniline changed [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu increased [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and some downstream products changed [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **PX**: Although the supply is currently at a relatively high level, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand - side support is stronger than expected. Short - term PX is expected to oscillate at a high level, and there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term supply - demand [12]. - **PTA**: The supply reduction is greater than expected, and the demand - side support is strong. The supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the price rebound space is limited. TA01 may oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and attention can be paid to the low - level positive spread opportunity of TA5 - 9 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - side contraction is not obvious, and the demand is supported by rigid demand. It is expected to oscillate in December, and EG2601 may oscillate between 3750 - 4000 [12]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure is not large in the short term, the absolute price driving force is limited, and the processing fee is mainly under compression. PFO2 is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the PF processing fee on the disk is recommended to be shorted on highs [12]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand is loose, and the social inventory is likely to accumulate seasonally. PR follows the cost - side fluctuation, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed [12]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and PX price differences changed [12]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of PTA spot and futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the basis and processing fees [12]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased [12]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and other industries changed [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry is still under pressure, the demand - side support is weak, and it is expected that the price of caustic soda will run weakly [13]. - **PVC**: It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. The supply pressure remains, the demand is sluggish, and although there is an advantage in export prices, the overall demand - side support is weak, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts [13]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased, and the export profit decreased [13]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India decreased, and the export profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port changed [13]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profits of calcium - carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [13]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries changed [13]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [13]. - **Inventory: Social Inventory & Annual**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC decreased [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Not provided Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **LPG Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512, PG2601, etc. increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as PG12 - 01, PG12 - 02, etc. [14]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The prices of FEI forward M1, M2 contracts and CP swap M1, M2 contracts decreased [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG decreased [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries decreased, the sample enterprise's weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased, the operating rate of downstream PDH increased slightly, the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged, and the operating rate of alkylation decreased [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium in the oil market has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as verification [3]. - For methanol, the potential bullish factors from the previous shutdown in Iran have started to materialize. The market has stopped falling and stabilized, with the futures price rising on reduced positions and the monthly spread starting to recover from the bottom. It is expected that a short - term bottom has emerged. In the future, supply is expected to remain at a high level, limiting the upward space for methanol. It is expected that the market will gradually shift to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. It is advisable to wait and see on the single - side trading and focus on positive spread opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. - For urea, the futures price has been oscillating higher, and the spot price has rebounded from the bottom. With low valuations, the downside space for urea is relatively limited, and prices are expected to gradually move out of the bottom range. In the future, attention should be paid to export and off - season storage demand on the demand side, and winter gas - based shutdowns and cost support on the supply side. At low prices, it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently adopt a neutral approach. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term quick - in and quick - out trading. Partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises remains at a low level for the year, and the valuation pressure is relatively small in the short term. However, the supply side has few maintenance operations, and production is at a historical high. Multiple new plants are expected to start trial production in the short term. The domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity. In the medium term, before the industry substantially reduces production, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. - For polypropylene, in a background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. When the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year, it may provide some support to the futures price [23]. - For PX, currently, the PX load remains at a high level, while downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and the overall load center is low. It is expected that PX will experience a slight inventory build - up in November. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction [24]. - For PTA, in the future, on the supply side, as processing fees gradually stabilize and recover, unexpected maintenance is expected to gradually decrease. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester fiber are relatively low, and the load is expected to remain high in the short term. However, due to inventory pressure and the approaching off - season for bottle chips, it is difficult for the load to increase. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [25]. - For ethylene glycol, on the industrial fundamentals, the domestic plant load is lower than expected due to a large number of unexpected maintenance operations. The domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the import volume will decrease slightly. The inventory build - up rate at ports may slow down. In the medium term, as maintenance ends, domestic production is still expected to be high, and with new plants gradually coming into operation, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 8.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.98% increase, at 453.90 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.90 million barrels to 13.52 million barrels, a 6.23% decline; diesel inventories decreased by 1.95 million barrels to 8.01 million barrels, a 19.62% decline; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.19 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 0.78% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 46.24 million barrels, a 5.44% decline [2][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 5, remained flat in southern Shandong, and increased by 2.5 in Inner Mongolia. The futures contract 01 increased by 21 yuan, closing at 2135 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10, reaching - 84 [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is expected to have a short - term bottom. In the future, supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to shift to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. Wait and see on the single - side trading and focus on positive spread opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 20, 10, and 10 respectively. The futures contract 01 increased by 9 yuan, closing at 1677 yuan, with a basis of - 27. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, reaching - 66 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to gradually move out of the bottom range. At low prices, consider buying on dips. In the future, pay attention to export and off - season storage demand on the demand side, and winter gas - based shutdowns and cost support on the supply side [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas has gradually receded, and subsequent bullish factors are diminishing. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are low. The fundamental driving force for rubber has weakened marginally and is currently following macro - level fluctuations. There are different views from the long and short sides. As of November 27, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.91%, 3.34 percentage points higher than last week and 3.98 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.37%, 0.40 percentage points lower than last week and 6.33 percentage points lower than the same period last year. New orders have slowed down, and tire factory inventories have increased. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1080000 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral approach currently. Wait and see or conduct short - term quick - in and quick - out trading. Partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 32 yuan, closing at 4549 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4490 (+40) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 59 (+8) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 290 (-9) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased to 2475 (+25) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. Factory inventory was 323000 tons (+7000), and social inventory was 1043000 tons (+10000) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, before the industry substantially reduces production, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 68.95%, a 0.30% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 million tons to 16.42 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the operating rate of ABS was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6789 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6810 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, weakening by 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise's inventory decreased by 49300 tons to 454000 tons, and the trader's inventory decreased by 3300 tons to 47100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, narrowing by 4 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6409 yuan/ton, a 114 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, weakening by 114 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, an 0.8% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise's inventory decreased by 47500 tons to 546300 tons, the trader's inventory decreased by 12900 tons to 200500 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 65300 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 380 yuan/ton, narrowing by 24 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a weak supply - demand background, the overall inventory pressure is high. When the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year, it may support the futures price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 112 yuan, closing at 6830 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (-29), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 28 yuan (+12). China's PX load was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; Asia's load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas GS 550000 - ton plant in South Korea reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, a 2.7% increase. In November, South Korea exported 275000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4074000 tons, a 48000 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 260 dollars (-11), the South Korean PX - MX was 109 dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 105 dollars (+5) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that PX will experience a slight inventory build - up in November, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 68 yuan, closing at 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4635 yuan. The basis was - 38 yuan (-2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 52 yuan (+2). The PTA load was 73.7%, a 2.7% increase. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 87%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 72%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on November 21 was 2230000 tons, a 33000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 30 yuan to 160 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 5 yuan to 220 yuan [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. On the demand side, the load is expected to remain high in the short term, but it is difficult for the bottle - chip load to increase. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 12 yuan, closing at 3885 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 18 yuan, at 3882 yuan. The basis was 4 yuan (-7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 93 yuan (-20). The ethylene glycol load was 73.1%, a 2.3% increase; among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 72%, a 5.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.8%, a 0.4% increase. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 87%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 72%. The import arrival forecast was 95000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on November 27 was 13000 tons. The port inventory was 732000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 828 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 668 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 74 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained flat at 730 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, as new plants come into operation, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak. Short on rallies in the medium term [27].

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PX and PTA have limited supply pressure, polyester demand remains stable, and the futures market has support at the bottom. However, the continuous weakening of the terminal restricts the rebound momentum, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. The price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. The polyester sector shows a differentiated trend in the fourth quarter, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol having limited upward potential [33]. - For methanol, in the short - term, although the shutdown of Iranian plants and tight supply in the inland region boost the market, the high - supply and high - operation situation will continue, and the demand support is insufficient, so the upward space of the futures market is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the import is expected to decrease from mid - December to next year, but the demand increase is still weak, and the market may fluctuate widely. - For plastics, in the short - term, the social inventory continues to decline, but the supply remains high, and the demand support is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may not decrease, and the overall demand is expected to weaken significantly, so the plastic market may continue to be weak [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Geopolitical news: Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to continue implementing the Geneva Conference results with the US. Russian President Putin said that the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, but Russia will not make concessions on key issues, and negotiating with the current Ukrainian leadership is meaningless at this stage. OPEC+ is expected to maintain the current crude oil production policy and may establish a new mechanism to assess member countries' production capacity [5]. - Crude oil supply and demand: Russian seaborne crude oil imports decreased by 23% in the week ending November 25. US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a reduction in purchases by major buyers. US commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased in the week ending November 21 [6][7]. - Market sentiment: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut rising to 86.9%. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined rapidly [6]. 3.2 Polyester Sector Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: WTI crude oil increased by 0.65% week - on - week, PX601 decreased by 1.64%, TA601 decreased by 1.36%, EG601 increased by 1.33%, PF602 decreased by 0.93%, and PR601 decreased by 0.70%. - Spot prices: Naphtha decreased by 1.24%, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 0.96%, PTA spot decreased by 0.39%, ethylene glycol in East China increased by 0.34%, polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.40%, and polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.35% [9]. 3.3 Supply and Demand of Polyester Raw Materials - PX: The 800,000 - tonne unit of Sinochem Quanzhou has been shut down for maintenance, but the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical has increased supply. As of November 28, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.74%, and the output was 752,600 tonnes. Asian PX capacity utilization decreased slightly to 79.4%. Next week, supply is expected to decline slightly, and PX processing fees have bottom - end support [14]. - PTA: The restart of Shenghong's unit was offset by the maintenance of Yisheng Ningbo and Sichuan Energy Investment units, resulting in a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 71.92%, and the output was 1.3747 million tonnes. Social inventory continued to decline. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [17]. - Ethylene glycol: The shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's unit and the delay of Puyang's restart led to a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 62.67%. The restart of Hongsifang's unit and the planned restart of Huayi's unit are expected to increase supply next week, but supply is expected to decline in December [19]. 3.4 Polyester End and Terminal Situation - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.38%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. - Terminal: As of November 28, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.93%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.04 days, a decrease of 0.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days were 23.45 days, an increase of 0.60 days [20][30]. 3.5 Methanol and Polyethylene Data - Price trends: The futures price of MA2601 increased by 6.54%, and the spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 3.71%. The futures price of L2601 increased by 0.28%, while the spot prices of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased [35]. - Methanol supply: As of November 27, the domestic methanol operating rate was 89.09%, and the output was 2.0235 million tonnes. This week, some units resumed production, and next week, Jiutai New Materials plans to resume production [42]. - Methanol demand: The overall downstream operating rate increased slightly, but MTO operating rate has limited room for further increase, and traditional downstream is in the off - season. The 1.2 - million - tonne acetic acid unit of Celanese has been shut down for maintenance since November 28 [45]. - Methanol inventory: As of November 26, the port inventory was 1.3635 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.83%, and the inland inventory was 373,700 tonnes, an increase of 4.19%. Iranian units have entered the gas - restricted shutdown state [48]. - Plastic supply: As of November 27, the domestic plastic operating rate was 84.51%, and the output was 684,800 tonnes. This week, some units were under maintenance, and some units resumed production. Next week, no units are planned for maintenance, and some units are expected to resume production [51]. - Plastic demand: As of November 27, the plastic downstream operating rate was 44.3%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points. The demand for greenhouse films is expected to decline, and the packaging film is still digesting previous orders, with a decreasing scale [55]. - Plastic inventory: As of November 26, the social plastic inventory was 471,100 tonnes, a decrease of 3.05%, and the two - oil enterprise inventory was 384,000 tonnes, a decrease of 9.43%. Manufacturers are actively reducing inventory [59].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, with the potential bullish factors from Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. However, high supply will limit further upside, and the market is expected to turn to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are exhausted [3]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply remaining high and demand improving, the downside is limited, and it's recommended to consider buying on dips at low prices [5][7]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term trading approach is suggested, and partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [8]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's still difficult to support the current supply - demand imbalance. Medium - term short - selling opportunities are worth attention [11]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [15]. - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downside, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the off - season, the long - term contradiction has shifted, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [18]. - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [20]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and repair of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The load may remain high in the short term, but there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. The inventory build - up may slow down in the short term, but it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.08%, to 447.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.82%, to 2471.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 30.00 yuan/ton, or 1.00%, to 3033.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.77 million barrels to 426.93 million barrels, a 0.65% increase [1][5][6]. - **Strategy**: A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, in Lunan by 15, and remained flat in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 20 yuan to 2114 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9. The 1 - 5 spread was + 13, at - 94 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to turn to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are exhausted, and waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price in Shandong increased by 10, in Henan by 20, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 14 yuan to 1668 yuan, with a basis of - 38. The 1 - 5 spread was + 5, at - 59 [5]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range, and buying on dips at low prices is recommended [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Thailand is experiencing floods, and rubber prices have rebounded. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber is 14550 (+50) yuan, STR20 is reported at 1820 (0) dollars, and STR20 mixed is 1810 (0) dollars. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China remained unchanged [7]. - **Strategy**: A bullish short - term trading approach is suggested, and partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [8]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4517 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 is 4450 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 67 (-18) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread is - 281 (+12) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, the overall operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.3% increase, and downstream demand decreased [10]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and medium - term short - selling opportunities are worth attention [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price also declined, with the basis weakening. The BZN spread rose, and the non - integrated plant profit of styrene decreased. The supply side's operating rate declined, and the port inventory increased, while the demand side's overall operating rate rose [13][14]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6699 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis strengthened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread narrowed [17]. - **Strategy**: The PE valuation has limited downside, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the off - season, the long - term contradiction has shifted, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6295 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly, and the LL - PP spread narrowed [19]. - **Strategy**: In a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract fell 56 yuan to 6718 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 826 dollars. The basis increased, and the 1 - 3 spread decreased. The operating rate in China and Asia increased, some plants restarted, PTA's operating rate rose, and imports from South Korea to China increased. The inventory increased in September [21]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 56 yuan to 4632 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4610 yuan. The basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: With the stabilization and repair of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The load may remain high in the short term, but there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 23 yuan to 3873 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 3900 yuan. The basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The supply - side operating rate increased, the downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the port inventory remained flat [25]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. The inventory build - up may slow down in the short term, but it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 15,280 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.13% to 15,280 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,134 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.20% to 2,114 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 94 yuan/ton. With the improvement trend of methanol supply - demand expectations, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [7]. - On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.8 yuan/barrel, and the closing price rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/barrel. The supply surplus competes with the seasonal demand recovery, combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment. The Russia - Ukraine conflict may end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil weakens [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week, mainly due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, caused by insufficient orders, slow shipment, and equipment transformation. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market maintained a good development trend, and the monthly production and sales reached a new high in the same period [10]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This is the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles, and it is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and may even reach 1.1 million [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons compared to 1.8802 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 184,600 tons. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 373,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4,500 tons compared to 369,200 tons last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 419, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 60. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 426.9 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.774 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 1.519 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.753 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 68,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 411 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 percentage points, a month - on - month rebound of 5.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [13]. - As of October 7, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 74,309 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 28,991 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,539 contracts or 31.68% compared to the average in September. As of November 18, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 177,827 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 13,249 contracts and a significant increase of 58,416 contracts or 48.92% compared to the average in October [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,280 yuan/ton | +85 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,095 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | 2,114 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | - 19 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 411.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 447.6 yuan/barrel | +2.6 yuan/barrel | - 36.1 yuan/barrel | - 2.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, rubber futures inventory, methanol basis, methanol port inventory, crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [15][28][40]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market has been under pressure since the second half of the year, with prices dropping significantly due to increased supply and decreased demand, but there are signs of potential stabilization as winter approaches and inventory levels decrease [1][2]. Cost Support - In 2024, China's methanol industry is expected to see both production and consumption increase, but a supply-demand mismatch is anticipated to lead to lower prices in the second half of 2025. The dominant production method is coal-based methanol, accounting for 78.3% of total production, with new gasification technologies improving efficiency [2]. - A decline in coal prices in 2024 is easing cost pressures for coal-based methanol producers, while rising coal and natural gas prices in winter 2025 may create cost challenges, providing a mixed outlook for pricing stability [2]. Supply Reduction and Demand Increase - The methanol industry has seen steady capacity growth, with annual production expected to exceed 112 million tons in 2024 and an additional 5 million tons projected for 2025, marking a growth rate of over 4.4%. However, demand recovery has not met expectations, leading to continued market weakness [3]. - A significant shift occurred in late November, with total domestic methanol supply at 2.303 million tons and demand at 2.3779 million tons, indicating a reversal in supply-demand dynamics. Anticipated reductions in imports due to seasonal factors and rising costs are expected to support domestic production cuts [3]. Inventory Decline - As of November 22, domestic methanol inventory stood at 358,700 tons, showing a slight decline. Most regions, except for the Southwest, are experiencing inventory reductions, particularly in the Northwest due to strong demand for external procurement and active sales strategies [4]. - High import levels in October and November have contributed to elevated port inventories, but recent trends indicate a significant reduction in port stocks, particularly in East China, which may positively influence future market stability [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, prices moved higher, but last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the first time in four weeks [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed trends. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November is expected to be higher, but high freight may reduce December arrivals. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is slightly reduced, with inventory levels decreasing and the operating rate increasing. The spot market still exerts pressure on the futures [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to oscillate. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and its price is expected to follow raw material prices. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with potential for polyester factory replenishment [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping. The downstream tire operating rate has declined, and the futures price is expected to be supported [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing [6]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI January contract rose $0.7 to $58.65 per barrel (1.21% increase), Brent January contract rose $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel (1.04% increase), and SC2601 closed at 446.3 yuan/barrel, up 3.5 yuan/barrel (0.79% increase). Last week, US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels, contrary to the expected 55,000 - barrel increase. The number of active oil and gas rigs decreased by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton. In October, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports and exports decreased. The expected arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than in October [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, fell 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is about 2.23 million tons, slightly decreased from the previous month. The inventory level decreased, and the operating rate increased [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.6% to 4684 yuan/ton, and EG2601 rose 0.59% to 3896 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and ethylene glycol prices may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, RU2601, rose 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton, and NR rose 15 yuan/ton to 12165 yuan/ton. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping, and the downstream tire operating rate has declined [4]. - **Methanol**: The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit due to downstream polyolefin price constraints [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on November 26 and 25, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. 3.3 Market News - The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies decreased for the first time in four weeks, with the total number of rigs decreasing by 10 to 544 as of November 26 [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [31][35][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][64][73] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].