Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, determining that U.S. exporters circumvented anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode optical fibers to China. Anti-circumvention measures will be implemented from September 4 [1] - In August, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with a revised figure of 104,000 for July. The ISM services PMI for August was reported at 52, marking the fastest expansion in six months, driven by the strongest growth in orders in nearly a year [1][5] Group 2 - In the dual-fuel market, the main contract showed a strong trend, with a continued decrease in coking coal positions. Steel production from the five major materials decreased week-on-week, while total inventory continued to accumulate, particularly in hot-rolled coil [2][25] - Methanol prices increased by 1.18% in the night session, with a significant rise in the number of imported cargoes arriving at ports. Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.3985 million tons, a historical high, with a week-on-week increase of 99,000 tons [3][14] - In the precious metals market, gold prices fell after a period of consolidation, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. Concerns arose regarding potential import tariffs on silver as the U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals [4][18] Group 3 - The State Council issued opinions to enhance the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry, emphasizing increased financial support and encouraging sports enterprises to go public [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released an action plan for stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors from 2025 to 2026 [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: Short - term PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip prices follow oil prices, with limited upward drivers. Ethylene glycol has a "strong present, weak future" pattern. Strategies vary by product, such as PX11 and TA being under observation, and attention to support levels [2]. - **Fertilizer Industry**: Urea futures face pressure due to weak demand and high supply. It is advisable to monitor the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [5]. - **Methanol Industry**: Methanol supply is abundant in September, while traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices and inventory digestion [12]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: OPEC + supply news increases concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The oil price is likely to be weak, and a bearish strategy is recommended [15]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In September, the polyolefin market shows a pattern of "decreased supply and increased demand", with controllable inventory pressure. It is suggested to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [22]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: Caustic soda prices may remain firm in the short - term, and PVC is expected to continue weak and volatile [30]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: Short - term pure benzene and styrene prices are under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not drop sharply. For EB10, short - term support around 6900 can be monitored [34]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 3, Brent crude oil (November) was at $67.60/barrel, down 2.2%. Most polyester product prices were stable or slightly decreased, and cash flows showed different changes [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply is expected to increase, while demand has limited upward potential. PTA supply - demand prospects have improved, but the implementation of device maintenance is not as expected. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics [2]. Fertilizer Industry - **Prices and Supply - Demand**: On September 3 - 5, most fertilizer product prices were stable, and urea production and inventory data showed small fluctuations. Urea demand is weak, and supply is relatively sufficient [5]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, methanol supply is high, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at $67.39/barrel, down 0.31%. Most oil - related prices and spreads changed slightly, and the crack spread of refined oil increased slightly [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC + supply news intensifies concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and the oil price is likely to be weak [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. PE and PP enterprise and social inventories increased [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, PE supply pressure is limited, and PP shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing". Downstream demand has increased slightly [22]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was stable, and the price of PVC was also stable. Chlor - alkali inventories showed different changes [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply will gradually recover, and demand may increase. PVC supply is expected to increase, while demand remains weak [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at $734/ton, up 0.8%. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, and demand support is weakening. Styrene supply is high in the short - term, but there are expectations of improvement in supply - demand later [34].

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX supply is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and good short - process benefits. Demand has some support but limited upside. PX11 is under observation, with support around 6600 and attention on oil price trends [2]. - PTA supply - demand is near a tight balance in September. Although the device maintenance execution is not as expected, the low absolute price is supported, but the driving force is limited. TA is under observation, paying attention to the support around 4600 and oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol has a "strong reality, weak expectation" supply - demand pattern. Short - term futures have limited downside, but the fourth - quarter supply - demand is weak. Attention is paid to the support of EG2601 around 4300 [2]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve in September, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows raw material fluctuations, with the disk processing fee oscillating between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip supply and procurement may both decrease in September, with inventory expected to increase. PR follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee has limited upside [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices fell due to weak demand and high - supply pressure. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export demand is also under pressure. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may be under pressure. Attention is paid to the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [8]. Methanol Industry - Methanol supply is expected to increase with the return of inland maintenance devices and high - level imports in September. Traditional downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure due to significant inventory accumulation, and attention is paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [10][11][12]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about increased OPEC+ supply in the fourth quarter. The disk may run weakly, with support levels for WTI at [62, 63], Brent at [65, 66], and SC at [470, 480]. Options can wait for opportunities to expand after increased volatility [19]. Polyolefin Industry - PE supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term, and PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation. Downstream industry开工率 has increased, but new orders have limited support. In September, the market shows a "supply - decrease, demand - increase" pattern, and it is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda market is supported by rigid demand, with low inventory in Shandong. The spot price may remain firm, and the disk callback space is limited. Attention is paid to downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [48]. - PVC supply - demand remains oversupplied. Supply is expected to increase in September, while demand remains weak. It is expected to continue weak and volatile, with cost - end support [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, while demand support is weak. Short - term absolute price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not fall deeply [53]. - Styrene supply is high in the short - term, with weak driving force. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement later. EB10 can be lightly long at low positions, and mainly short on rebounds later [53]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, WTI crude oil (October) was at 63.97 dollars/barrel, down 1.62 dollars or 2.5% from the previous day. Various polyester product prices and spreads changed, such as PTA, MEG, and different polyester fiber prices [2]. - **Inventory and Expected Arrival**: MEG port inventory was 44.9 million tons on September 1, down 10.2% from August 25, and the expected arrival was 4.4 million tons, up 122.7% [2]. - **Industry开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 75.6% on August 29, down 0.7% from August 22; PTA开工率 was 70.4%, down 1.2% [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 3, the 01 - contract futures price was 1714 yuan/ton, down 1.83% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 18.80 million tons on September 5, down 0.93% from September 4. Factory inventory increased slightly, and order days decreased [8]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. There were also changes in various price spreads and regional price differences [10]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 34.1083%, up 2.31%; port inventory was 142.8 million tons, up 9.88% [11]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.19% on Thursday, down 1.12% from the previous value; downstream MTO device开工率 was 78.56%, up 2.13% [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at 67.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.31% from the previous day; WTI was at 63.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.34% [19]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB was at 200.90 cents/gallon on September 4, down 0.15% from the previous day. Refined oil cracking spreads had different changes [19]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. There were also changes in price spreads and basis [23]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory on Wednesday was 45.1 million tons, up 5.57%; PP装置开工率 on Thursday was 80.2%, up 2.6% [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. PVC prices and price spreads also had changes [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.4% on August 29, down 0.8% from August 22; PVC total开工率 was 73.3%, down 2.3% [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at 734 dollars/ton, up 0.8% from the previous day. Styrene - related prices and spreads also changed [53]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 1.10 million tons on September 1, up 8.0% from August 25; domestic pure benzene开工率 was 79.2% on August 29, up 0.2% from August 22 [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [6]. - For methanol, supply pressure is increasing, the market is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3]. - Regarding urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic situation is one of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, although there is currently a lack of upward drivers, the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and there is support at the lower end of the valuation. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the peak season [23]. - For PTA, the supply has shifted from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the demand side is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess, and there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium - term [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.69%, at 493.20 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oils, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, at 2840.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 30.00 yuan/ton, or 0.85%, at 3512.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57%; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 132 [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic production has further increased, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Import arrivals have increased, and port inventories have accumulated to a high level [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of port MTO has continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [3]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract fell 32 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of - 14. The futures price broke through the support level on Wednesday, while the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [5]. - **Supply**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, domestic production has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, enterprise profits are still at a medium - low level [5]. - **Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventories have risen rapidly. Currently, demand is mainly concentrated in exports [5]. - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level compared to the same period last year [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [8]. - **Factor Analysis**: Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has increased, which may cause the rubber price to rise. Bulls believe that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may limit rubber production growth, the seasonal pattern usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected [8][9]. - **Industry Data**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, 1.76 percentage points lower than the previous week and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All - steel tire exports were good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories was slow to consume. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5% from the previous month. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. As of August 31, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 47.34 (- 0.36) million tons [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14880 (+ 30) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+ 0) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1840 (+ 5) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9400 (+ 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11650 (0) yuan [12]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 198 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The cost side remained stable, with the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke at 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene at 840 (0) US dollars/ton. The spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 77.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% [15]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+ 0.6), and social inventory was 89.6 million tons (+ 4.4) [15]. - **Strategy**: In the domestic situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook and poor fundamentals, it is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [17]. - **Factor Analysis**: Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The production of pure benzene has been fluctuating at a moderate level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and styrene production has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been rising [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of styrene was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7040 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a weakening of 156 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 344.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton; the upstream operating rate was 78.1%, a decrease of 0.40%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.65 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 43.84%, an increase of 0.24%; the operating rate of PS was 59.90%, an increase of 2.40%, the operating rate of EPS was 58.35%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.80%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Factor Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory has decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and the procurement of raw materials for agricultural films has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.08 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The LL1 - 5 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 1 yuan/ton [20]. - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [21]. - **Factor Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 6954 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 11 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 55 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.30 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons, and the port inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The LL - PP spread was 293 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 16 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. 3.8 Polyester 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 24 yuan to 6810 yuan, the PX CFR price fell 3 US dollars to 843 US dollars, the basis was 99 yuan (+ 1) after conversion at the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 yuan (- 4) [23]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%, and the operating rate in Asia was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. There were few changes in domestic plants [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. Some PTA plants had maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, while others were in the process of restarting or commissioning [23]. - **Import**: In August, South Korea exported 37.6 million tons of PX to China, an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to the same period last year [23]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory was 389.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 246 US dollars (- 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 94 US dollars (- 3) [23]. - **，**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA plants, with the overall operating rate at a low level. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory levels, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, providing support for the valuation at the lower end. However, due to the lack of upward drivers currently and the reduction in the amount of unexpected PTA maintenance compared to previous expectations, the PXN has limited upward momentum. The valuation is currently at a moderate level, and the terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Report's Core View Polyolefin - In September, the polyolefin market shows a phased characteristic of "decreased supply and increased demand", with inventory being reduced and overall market pressure under control. It is recommended to continue holding the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is strong in the short - term. After the parade, there may be an increase in orders from other provinces, and some caustic soda plants may raise prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [4]. PVC - The PVC market continues to be in a situation of oversupply. Although it is the traditional demand peak season in September, demand remains sluggish. It is expected to continue weak and volatile [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The supply side supports buying, while the demand side is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent OPEC+ meetings. In the short - term, wait and see, use a positive arbitrage strategy, and look for opportunities to expand options after the volatility increases [7]. Methanol - The methanol supply is expected to increase, while the traditional downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the restart of MTO devices at ports and the inventory digestion rhythm. The 01 contract can consider the possibility of a decline in imports due to gas restrictions in Iran [17]. Urea - The urea futures price rebounded slightly, driven by supply - side maintenance and Indian tender news. However, weak demand limits the upside space [21]. PX - PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance in September. PX11 can focus on the area around 6800 [25]. PTA - PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the absolute price is supported in the short - term. [26] Ethylene Glycol - In September, domestic ethylene glycol supply is high, imports are revised down, and port inventories are low. Consider going long EG2601 or selling put options EG2601 - P - 4300 [26]. Short - fiber - In September, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction is limited. The price fluctuates mainly with raw materials [26]. Bottle Chip - In September, bottle chip manufacturers maintain a 20% production cut. Demand declines slightly, and the upside space is limited [26]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, demand support is weak, and the absolute price is under short - term pressure. However, the strong oil price restricts the downward space. For BZ2603, focus on the area around 5800 - 6000 [34]. Styrene - Short - term styrene supply is high, and the driver is weak. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the future, and the downward space is limited. Consider going long lightly below 7000 and focus on the support around 6900, and then mainly short on rebounds [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 closing prices all decreased slightly. The basis of North China LL and the spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 14.92%, and social inventory increased by 0.99%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.91%, and trader inventory decreased by 1.81% [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.72%. PP device operating rate increased by 2.6%, and powder operating rate increased by 4.1% [2]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Export Profit**: FOB price of caustic soda in East China remained unchanged, and export profit decreased. PVC's CFR Southeast Asia price decreased, and export profit increased [4]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate and PVC total operating rate decreased. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC and Northwest integrated PVC decreased [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC's pre - sales volume decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China decreased, while that in Shandong increased. PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased [4]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all rose. The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, etc. changed significantly [7]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of some refined oil products and their spreads changed, and the cracking spreads of some refined oil products also changed [7]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased. The basis of Taicang and regional spreads changed [17]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased, while that of overseas enterprises increased. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices increased [17]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some urea products and their spreads changed [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased, and factory and port inventories increased [21]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX**: PX futures prices decreased, and spreads such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha decreased [24][25]. - **PTA**: PTA spot and futures prices changed slightly, and the processing fee increased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol decreased, and the basis increased [25]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, etc. changed, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [32]. - **Benzene and Styrene Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis and import profit changed [32]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [33]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. The operating rates of some industries in the industrial chain changed [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Report Overview - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released on September 2, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in different regions showed some fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2275 to 2230, and the Northwest discounted price decreased from 2680 to 2645 [2] Core View - The trading logic is that the port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although the inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increments from Lianhong, the port will continuously form a backflow impact. Currently, the price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The backflow can resolve the port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Therefore, it is necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polyethylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 840, while the North China LL price decreased from 7270 to 7170, and the East China LL price decreased from 7400 to 7290 [6] Core View - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal chemical industries are destocking, the social inventory is flat, and the downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [6] Polypropylene (PP) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polypropylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6450 to 6580, while the East China PP price decreased from 6985 to 6845 [7] Core View - The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] PVC Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of PVC in different regions and forms showed some fluctuations. For example, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 [7] Core View - The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. The Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]