Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market has seen a decline, with energy and semiconductor sectors showing positive performance [1] - Funds are flowing out of the market overall, but there is a significant inflow into semiconductor and hardware sectors [2] - Earnings forecasts have been steadily revised upwards, particularly in the energy sector [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.6% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.3% [1] - Among sectors, energy (+2.2%) and semiconductor products and equipment (+1.6%) were the top performers, while commercial and professional services (-5.8%) and durable goods and apparel (-4.6%) faced the largest declines [1] 2. Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was -$27.1 billion this week, a slight improvement from -$99.4 billion the previous week [2] - Key sectors with inflows included semiconductor products and equipment (+$30.8 million) and technology hardware and equipment (+$29.7 million) [2] 3. Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) expectations for S&P 500 constituents increased by 0.6% this week, with 22 sectors seeing upward revisions [3] - The energy sector had the most significant upward revision at +4.3%, followed by materials and semiconductor products and equipment at +1.2% [3]

据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普13日在社交媒体上发文称，伊朗已被"彻底击败"。 特朗普当天深夜在社交媒体上称："'假新闻'媒体不愿报道美军对伊朗军事行动成果。伊朗已 经被彻底击败，想要达成协议——但我不接受！" 当天，伊朗持续向美国和以色列目标发动多轮攻击。 来源丨新华社 编辑丨张嘉钰 美军最新伤亡情况 美股科技股深夜重挫，中概股亿鹏能源飙涨43%，国际油价大涨3%，美国向中东增派海军 陆战队和军舰 SFC 21君荐读 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the afternoon of March 12, approving the government work report, the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, the national economic and social development plan for 2026, the central budget for 2026, and passing the Ecological Environment Code, the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, and the National Development Planning Law [2] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since taking office, stating that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and will open new fronts if necessary, calling on neighboring countries to close military bases used by the United States. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, significantly reducing the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. The IEA said that the conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and it is expected that global oil supply will plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March [2] - As of the week ending March 12, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventories increased for eight consecutive weeks, social inventories increased for ten consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased for three consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, an increase of 219,900 tons or 12.69% from the previous week; rebar social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons or 2.63% from the previous week; rebar apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, an increase of 785,800 tons or 80% from the previous week [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange decided to adjust the price limit range and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the price limit range is 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the price limit range is 20%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 21%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 22% [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, coking coal, apples, asphalt, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - The night session performance of various commodity sectors shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.41%, the precious metals sector rose 29.57%, the oilseeds and fats sector rose 8.29%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 8.50%, the energy sector rose 7.37%, the chemical sector rose 14.45%, the grain sector rose 1.00%, the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.54%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.46%, and the non-ferrous metals sector rose 23.40% [4][5] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes shows that the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a monthly decline of 0.81%, and an annual increase of 4.04%. Other equity indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and German DAX also had different levels of daily, monthly, and annual changes. In the fixed-income category, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had positive daily changes. In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, and other commodities also showed different trends [7] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, and others, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premium of the stock market [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSN achieved a 15% increase in EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by record volumes in mining and logistics, lower steel costs, and a recovering cement price environment [3][4] - The company reported an EBITDA of BRL 11.8 billion for the year, representing a 15% growth compared to the previous year [9] - The leverage indicator reached 3.47 times, marking the first increase after three consecutive quarters of decline due to increased investments and expenses [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In mining, CSN recorded the second-largest production and sales volume in its history, exceeding 45 million tons for the first time, which is an 8.4% annual growth since the IPO in 2021 [5][18] - The steel segment saw a reduction in production costs, reaching the lowest levels since 2021, contributing to a consolidated growth of 2.6% in annual average prices despite challenges from imports [16][17] - The cement segment experienced a slight drop in net revenue due to seasonality, but the annual performance showed the highest revenue recorded for the company, with profitability close to 30% in the second half of the year [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The logistics segment achieved record EBITDA for the year, with a margin of 44%, slightly below the previous year due to lower contributions from the port modal [23] - The energy segment also reported historical records, with a 79% growth in EBITDA and an adjusted margin of 54% [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CSN announced a strategic movement to improve its capital structure, aiming to raise up to BRL 18 billion to reduce leverage and facilitate growth [4][13] - The company is prioritizing results over volume in its cement strategy, reflecting a shift in focus towards profitability [6] - Investments in logistics and energy are seen as key pillars for organic growth, with a new logistics sub-segment being developed [7][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational resiliency of the company, despite challenges from seasonality and external market pressures [3][4] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of increased performance in cement and steel, while mining and logistics will benefit from operational efficiencies [9][34] - Management highlighted the importance of anti-dumping measures to support local producers and stabilize the market [6][30] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant release of working capital during the quarter, reflecting a higher volume of iron ore purchases from third parties [11] - CSN's ESG initiatives included investments of BRL 750 million in environmental management and a commitment to reducing CO2 emissions [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on the disinvestment plan and timing for operations - Management confirmed that the signing of processes is expected in the third quarter of this year, with several proposals received from potential buyers [37][38] Question: Insights on steel price initiatives and market dynamics - Management indicated a forecasted price increase of 4.5% to 6% for the first quarter, with expectations of stable volumes in steel [40][41] Question: Concerns regarding imports and anti-dumping measures - Management acknowledged ongoing concerns about imports from countries like Korea and emphasized the importance of anti-dumping measures to protect the domestic market [46][52] Question: Clarification on net debt increase and cash flow - Management explained that the increase in net debt was due to concentrated investments and prepayment variations, with a focus on improving cash flow in the future [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream of the agricultural industry is recovering, while the middle - stream of the chemical industry is showing differentiation. The production and service industries are affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Production and Service Industries - **Production Industry**: 32 IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Japan plans to release national oil reserves as early as the 16th, and Germany will release 2.4 million tons of national oil reserves [1] - **Service Industry**: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year. There is a risk of inflation rebound in the US, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in July [1] 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - **Energy**: The prices of liquefied natural gas and international crude oil are continuously rising [2] - **Agriculture**: The prices of eggs and palm oil are recovering [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The price of aluminum has a slight recovery [2] 3.2.2. Middle - stream - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate remains high, while the polyester operating rate is low [3] - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3] - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [3] 3.2.3. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have a seasonal decline [4] - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has decreased [4] 3.3. Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: The spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, and cotton have increased to varying degrees, while the average wholesale price of pork has decreased [35] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of aluminum has increased, while the prices of copper, zinc, and nickel have decreased [35] - **Ferrous Metals**: The spot prices of螺纹钢, iron ore, and wire rod have increased [35] - **Non - metals**: The spot prices of natural rubber and glass have increased, and the China Plastic City price index has also increased significantly [35] - **Energy**: The spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas have increased, while the coal price has decreased slightly [35] - **Chemical Industry**: The spot prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, and soda ash have increased [35] - **Real Estate**: The cement price index has decreased, while the building materials comprehensive index has increased slightly, and the concrete price index has remained unchanged [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the US - Iran conflict, have significant impacts on the markets, causing price fluctuations in energy, metals, and agricultural products. The supply - demand relationship, cost factors, and inventory levels also play crucial roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Macro changes and raw material contradictions support prices, but high inventory remains a constraint. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 136,000 - 145,000 [2][37] - **PX**: Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [3][101] - **Silicon Iron**: The market sentiment is volatile, with both supply and demand increasing. The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [4][68] - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA March supply - demand report has limited impact. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [5][74] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a mixed trend on Wednesday. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell differently. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread of far - month put options with a low position, with a neutral - oscillatory view [6][7][9] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to oscillate for a long time in the range of 5,000 - 5,250 dollars. Silver prices may still have downward pressure, and platinum and palladium prices have certain support [10][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot copper supply is tight, and the spot premium is strengthening. In the short term, the price oscillates around 100,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, the price center is expected to rise [15][18] Alumina - The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the spot price is rising. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [19][20] Aluminum - Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price oscillates at a high level. In the short term, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [22][24] Aluminum Alloy - The social inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The price oscillates strongly in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [24][26] Zinc - The price oscillates narrowly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [27][30] Tin - The price is greatly affected by short - term market sentiment. In the long term, it is still optimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [31][35] Nickel - The situation is similar to that in the daily selection, with high inventory constraining the upward movement, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][38] Stainless Steel - The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. The cost provides support, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [38][40] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price falls. The fundamentals are resilient but lack strong driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 150,000 - 165,000 [41][44] Polysilicon - The spot market is weak, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The long - term photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][47] Industrial Silicon - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost and market situation [48][50] Ferrous Metals Steel - The steel price center rises, and it is expected to oscillate in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in steel exports and the price pressure levels [50][53] Iron Ore - The price may oscillate strongly in the range of 750 - 820 due to geopolitical impacts and supply - demand changes [55][56] Coking Coal - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price rebounds. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [57][61] Coke - The futures price rebounds. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][66] Silicon Iron - Similar to the daily selection, the price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [67][68] Manganese Silicon - The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,800 - 6,400 due to cost - pushing and supply - demand changes [69][71] Agricultural Products Meal - The USDA March report has limited impact, and the market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [72][74] Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure is high, and the price is expected to continue to bottom out, with the possibility of further decline in the near - month [75][76] Corn - The price oscillates at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting. It is necessary to pay attention to the specific supply and policy release [77][79] Sugar - The international and domestic sugar markets have different trends. The domestic market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [80] Cotton - The cotton price shows a strong trend. The domestic and international markets have different situations, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and planting policies [82] Eggs - The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [86][87] Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the Middle East situation and supply rumors, and rapeseed oil oscillates in a range [88][91] Red Dates - The spot market improves, and the futures price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to operate in a short - term band with strict risk control [92][93] Apples - The spot trading is weak, and the futures price oscillates and falls. It is necessary to pay attention to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes [94][96] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term price decline space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [97][98] PX - Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [100][101] PTA - The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to oil prices [102][103] Short - fiber - The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream cost transmission [104][105] Bottle Chips - The supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing fee pressure [106][107] Ethylene Glycol - The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the price may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [108][109] Pure Benzene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see and shrink the spread between pure benzene and styrene at high prices [110] Styrene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to operate similarly to pure benzene and pay attention to the downstream recovery and the Strait of Hormuz passage [111][112] LLDPE - The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to supply contraction and demand recovery expectations. It is necessary to track the cost and demand [114] PP - The supply - demand balance improves, and the price is strong. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from the 5 - 9 positive spread [115] Methanol - The price oscillates widely due to geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from long positions [115] Caustic Soda - The price rises due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply - demand is weak, and it is necessary to be vigilant against price drops after the situation eases [116][117] PVC - The price fluctuates emotionally due to cost concerns. It may be passively pushed up in the short term [118][119] Urea - The cost drives the price, and the fundamentals change little. The price is strong in the short term but may decline later. It is recommended to follow the crude oil series with a long - at - low strategy [120][121] Soda Ash - The supply and inventory are high, and the demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][125] Glass - The cost provides support, and the demand improves. It is necessary to pay attention to de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][126] Natural Rubber - The price oscillates widely due to the impact of oil prices. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500, and it is recommended to wait and see [126][129] Synthetic Rubber - The price of BR rebounds due to expected raw material shortages. It is recommended to lightly go long on the spread between RU2605 and BR2605 at low prices [129][132] Container Shipping to Europe - The price is pushed up by the fuel surcharge. It is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1,700 - 2,100. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6 - 10 positive spread entry opportunity [133][134]

Key Points - The People's Bank of China held a meeting focusing on technology work for 2026, emphasizing risk prevention, strong regulation, and high-quality development [2] - The automotive industry saw a significant decline in production and sales in February, with total vehicle production down 31.7% month-on-month and 20.5% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of total new car sales [2] - The International Energy Agency recommended releasing 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to alleviate international oil supply tensions [3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 2.4% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, with core CPI rising 2.5% [3] Company News - Huari Precision announced a price increase for all product lines due to rapidly rising raw material costs [5] - Dingxin Communications is gradually recovering from a market entry ban by State Grid and Southern Power Grid, but bidding processes will take time to resume [6] - New Guodu plans to establish a subsidiary focused on next-generation smart hardware [7] - Anhui Weihe High-tech intends to raise up to 3 billion yuan from its controlling shareholder for projects related to polyvinyl alcohol resin [8] - New Dairy is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9] - Fuliwang expects a year-on-year increase of 183.84% to 254.81% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2026 [10] - Putailai plans to invest $297 million in a production base for negative electrode materials in Malaysia [11]

Inflation Overview - US inflation remained flat at 2.4% in February, following fluctuations in the previous year, with a four-year low of 2.4% in January [1][2] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was reported at 2.5%, with significant price increases in shelter, medical care services, and utilities [2] Impact of Tariffs - Certain sectors heavily reliant on imports showed notable price increases due to tariffs, with coffee prices rising by 18.4% year-over-year and canned fruit and vegetable prices increasing by 6.2% [2] - The US Supreme Court recently struck down much of Trump's tariff regime, leading to the introduction of a new 15% tariff on all imports [4] Oil Prices and Economic Uncertainty - The US conflict in Iran has led to global oil price shocks, with gas prices rising from just below $3 to $3.50 within a short period [5] - Economists estimate that a $10 increase in oil prices could result in a 0.2% increase in overall price levels [5] Federal Reserve's Response - The new inflation data is expected to influence the upcoming US Federal Reserve board meeting, where interest rates are likely to remain unchanged despite ongoing conflicts [6] - The Federal Reserve has resisted lowering interest rates due to persistent inflation above the target rate of 2%, despite pressure from President Trump [7] Labor Market Conditions - The US economy experienced a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, resulting in an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [8]

Export Growth - China's exports in January-February 2026 increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous value of 6.6%[10] - Imports also grew by 5.7%, consistent with the previous value of 5.7%[10] - The total trade surplus for January-February reached $213.62 billion, with a rebound in trade surplus growth[10] Regional Analysis - Exports to the U.S. saw a recovery with a growth rate of -11.0%, up from -30.0%[18] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 29.4%, compared to the previous 11.1%[18] - Exports to Latin America rose by 16.4%, up from 9.8%[18] Product Structure - Consumer goods exports, excluding consumer electronics, showed significant recovery, while electromechanical exports remained strong[25] - The export of capital goods continues to be robust, indicating a stable demand in this sector[25] Future Outlook - The report highlights two major divergences in exports: quantity-price divergence and divergence between RMB and USD denominated exports[28] - The short-term forecast indicates a significant drop in March's dollar-denominated export growth due to high base effects, with the extent of the decline being a key point of discussion[30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk appetite declined rapidly due to geopolitical influence and then recovered during the domestic Two Sessions. The A-share market is testing for stabilization. [3] - For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, hold the bull spread portfolio constructed with put options. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Indicators - **Market Overview**: This week, the four major index futures contracts declined with the index. IF and IH fell 1.32% and 1.75% respectively, while IC and IM fell 3.60% and 3.64% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7155, 402, 8025, and 3673 lots respectively. As of Friday, the optimal roll - over contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were the 2604 contracts, and the optimal annualized roll - over costs were 2.47%, 0.58%, 4.11%, and 5.42% respectively. [10] - **A - share Performance**: This week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index fell 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.64%. [11] - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratios**: The basis of the four major index futures contracts oscillated neutrally, and the long - side strength weakened relatively. After March, it showed a downward trend due to dividend expectations. The current basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts were - 14.44, - 2.70, - 37.73, and - 37.06 points respectively. The futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the value style was more stable during the decline. [12] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most of the Wind primary industry indices declined this week, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top - rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively. The top - falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively. [15] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly contracted. [16] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference Trend**: The basis oscillated and declined, and the seasonality gradually emerged. [21] - **Inter - period Spread Trend**: The report provides the inter - period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM. [26][27][29] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The risk appetite was under pressure, and the valuations of small - and medium - cap stocks declined relatively. [34] - **Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends**: The long - to - short ratios generally declined. [42] - **Short - side Roll - over Costs**: The annualized short - side roll - over cost of the next - month contract was the lowest. [50] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **Domestic High - frequency Macroeconomic Tracking**: In January, M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, with the growth rates accelerating by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the corporate sector's credit increased significantly year - on - year. [60] - **Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and national real - estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with the decline still expanding. The land transactions in first - tier cities significantly rebounded, and the commercial housing transactions rebounded slightly at the beginning of 2026. [60][61][68] - **Consumption**: In January, consumer demand continued to recover. CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. [60] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (previous value: 49.3%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (previous value: 49.4%). The steel tire operating rates continued to rise, while automobile sales declined in January. [60] - **Foreign Trade**: In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 114.1 billion US dollars. The freight rate indices showed an upward trend. [60] 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - **Liquidity Indicator Tracking**: On March 6, the SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, and due to the maturity of 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 1247.4 billion yuan. This week, A - share funds had a cumulative net active sell - off of 406.796 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance decreased, the short - selling balance increased, and the net outflow of equity ETF funds was 4.6 billion yuan. [94]