Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International gold prices hit a new record high, and the A - share market had an adjustment. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence, Trump's tariff issues, and economic data from different countries [3][4]. - Different commodity markets showed diverse trends. For example, some commodities were expected to be in a supply - demand imbalance, while others were affected by production changes, policy adjustments, and market sentiment [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and Trump called for a strong interest - rate cut. Gold prices rose to a new high due to concerns about the Fed's independence and tariff issues. The market should pay attention to the upcoming non - farm data and the increase in long - short games [14][15]. - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Multiple high - ranking Japanese LDP officials expressed their intention to resign, and concerns about the UK economy intensified. The dollar index rose significantly in the short term, and market risk appetite declined [20]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: The number of new A - share accounts in August was 2.65 million, with a significant year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The A - share market adjusted on September 2, and the subsequent trend depends on major events [22][23]. - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump planned to appeal the global tariff case to the US Supreme Court. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract, and the US Treasury Secretary planned to interview Fed chair candidates. The US stock market adjusted, and investors should pay attention to volatility [25][26][27]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading in September. The bond market was in a volatile trend, and it was not recommended to chase long positions after the market rose [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased to 65%. The US weekly export inspection data met expectations, and the domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient but demand was also strong [32]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: The cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 72.8% as of August 30. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, but the good - quality rate was high. The external market was under seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton market was expected to be in a short - term shock [34][35][36]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, and Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. It was recommended to go long on palm oil at low prices [37][39]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: Port coal prices were weakly falling. Due to weak demand and transportation restrictions during the parade, coal prices were expected to continue the seasonal decline but be supported at around 650 yuan [40]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: Grangex announced the restart of Sydvaranger mining. The overall raw material market was under pressure, but it was expected to be in a shock market in September [41]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable. The fundamentals of red dates were not significantly changed, and it was recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch enterprises in different regions had losses. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the price difference between rice flour and starch was at a low level [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. The spot price of corn was strengthening, but the upward space of the futures price was limited [45][46]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Argentina approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The supply - demand imbalance caused by supply reduction might be reflected in high - frequency data in September, and it was recommended to try long positions and pay attention to positive spreads [48][49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was cancelled. The polysilicon price was expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and it was recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [50][53]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The LME lead market was weak, while the domestic lead market's supply was expected to tighten and demand to improve. It was recommended to go long on lead at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [54]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was slowly increasing, and the market was expected to be in a short - term shock between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: The LME zinc market was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc market was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: The copper market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and industry policies. The copper price was expected to be supported in the short term, and it was recommended to be long on a short - term basis [65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price was firm, and the nickel price was expected to be in a range - bound shock. It was recommended to go long at low prices [66][67]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Kazakhstan's crude oil production in August increased by 2% month - on - month. The oil price was expected to be in a shock [68]. - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: The CEA price was in a short - term shock and weakening trend [69][70]. - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: The PX price was in a short - term shock adjustment [72][73]. - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: The PTA market was in a short - term shock adjustment with improved fundamentals [74][75]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda spot price was expected to be in a high - level shock [76][77]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market was in a weak shock [77][78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market was expected to be in a shock [79][80]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market was in a weak operation recently [81][83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: The bottle chip market had new capacity plans, and the demand was moving towards the off - season [84][85]. - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: The soda ash market was weakening, and it was recommended to short at high prices [86][87]. - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The float glass market was in a weak trend, and it was recommended to focus on arbitrage [88][89]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates)**: The container freight rate market was under supply pressure, and the price was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to short on emotional rallies in October and long after the price decline in December [91][92].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial consumer rights protection and the need for awareness against various types of financial fraud, particularly in the context of corporate employees [1] Group 1: Financial Consumer Rights Protection - The Minsheng Bank Tai'an Branch conducted a consumer rights protection awareness event at Hengxin High-Tech Energy Co., Ltd, aiming to enhance employees' understanding of financial safety [1] - The event highlighted common types of financial fraud, including investment scams, lottery scams, and telecom fraud, using relatable examples to educate employees [1] Group 2: Fraud Prevention Strategies - Employees were advised to adhere to the "three no principles": do not seek small advantages, do not trust "insider" information, and do not disclose personal information to reduce the risk of being scammed [1] - Special training was provided for corporate financial personnel, emphasizing the importance of verifying and confirming transactions before making transfers to enhance the security of corporate funds [1] Group 3: Ongoing Efforts and Community Engagement - The event distributed over 200 informational brochures, reaching more than 700 employees, indicating a commitment to ongoing education and awareness in the community [1] - Minsheng Bank Tai'an Branch plans to continue focusing on corporate outreach and expanding fraud prevention awareness to foster a "national anti-fraud" atmosphere [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the Fed's rate - cut expectations rise, attention should be paid to precious metals [1] - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and Powell's dovish stance paves the way for a September rate cut, making the overseas inflation rise path smoother [2] - For commodities, industrial products should be bought on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. China's July economic data showed mixed performance: the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year in dollar terms, money supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were weak, and investment data faced pressure. In August, the official manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.4, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated expansion. A - shares showed a volatile and differentiated trend on September 1. In the US, the August PMI continued to improve, and the "big beautiful" bill may support subsequent consumption. The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal [1] - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 turned dovish, which cleared the way for a September rate cut. In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI reached a 38 - month high, and factory production growth was strong [2] Commodity Analysis - The black and new energy metal sectors in China are most sensitive to the supply - side. Precious metals and agricultural products can be considered due to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" in the non - ferrous, energy, and chemical sectors is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental signals and attention to Sino - US negotiations. On September 1, the precious metals market performed well, with silver reaching its highest level since 2011 and gold rising for the fifth consecutive day [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be bought on dips [4] Important News - On the afternoon of September 1, the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting was held in Tianjin. The overall stock market showed that the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated sideways, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon. Black - series futures fell, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.7. Spot gold reached $3480 per ounce [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has accumulated significant gains and may enter a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next stage of direction decision. The bond market may strengthen, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate within a certain range. Precious metals have reached new highs, and investors need to be cautious when going long. The shipping index shows a downward trend, and investors can consider going long on the 12 - contract on dips. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Monday, the A - share market opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed higher. The TMT sector remained hot, while the large - finance sector corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis of the main contracts declined [2][3]. - News: China's economic prosperity continued to expand in August. South Korea's exports in August showed strong growth, especially in semiconductors and automobiles [3]. - Capital: On September 1st, the A - share trading volume remained high, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan by the central bank [4]. - Operation suggestion: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.29%, - 0.05%, - 1.34%, and - 1.61% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan. The liquidity at the beginning of the month was generally stable [4][5][6]. - Fundamental: The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight increase, with production and new orders rebounding, and external demand remaining resilient [6]. - Operation suggestion: The bond market may strengthen. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%, and it is recommended to operate within the range [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Overnight, gold and silver prices rose significantly due to the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical instability in Europe. Gold reached a new high of $3475.35 per ounce, and silver reached a new high since 2011 at $40.674 per ounce [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and institutional investors' demand for precious metals continues to increase. However, investors need to be cautious when going long unilaterally. For silver, although the industrial demand is relatively weak, the price may continue to rise [10]. - Capital: The positions of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the speculative net long positions rebounded [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot price: As of September 2nd, the spot price quotes of major shipping companies showed a slow downward trend [11]. - Shipping index: As of September 1st, the SCFIS European route index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamental: As of September 2nd, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI and manufacturing PMI in August were above 50, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price continued to decline. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the 12 - contract [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to oscillate. Investors can wait and see or go long on the 12 - contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the supply was tight. The spot trading became more active with the arrival of the traditional peak season [14]. - Macro: The Fed's attitude has become more dovish, and the market expects the probability of an interest - rate cut in September to increase [15]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased month - on - month, and the production in September is expected to continue to decline [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand was still resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [16]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The Fed's dovish attitude boosts copper prices, but the upside space is limited. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". Copper prices may at least oscillate [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 1st, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply was gradually becoming more relaxed [17]. - Supply: In July 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased [18]. - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The downside space is limited, and the upside needs new catalysts [19][20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19][20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased [21]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of fundamentals supported the price, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement. It is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan, and pay attention to the pressure at 21,000 yuan [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 1st, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was affected by the off - season, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [23]. - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated downward with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost was supported. The demand is expected to improve in September. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan [24][25]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan. If the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, investors can consider the arbitrage of going long on AD and short on AL [25]. Zinc - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the spot trading improved [25]. - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high. The zinc ore supply was loose, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [26]. - Demand: The operating rates of the primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, but the decline space was limited. The downstream procurement increased after the price decline [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, and the price may oscillate. The upward breakthrough needs better demand and interest - rate cut expectations, and the downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and continuous inventory accumulation [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 1st, the price of 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot trading was stagnant [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume decreased in July, and the supply was still tight. The tin ingot import volume increased [29][30]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory decreased [30][31]. - Logic: The national policy boosts the demand expectation. The supply is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply [31]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate widely [31][32]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was average, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained at a high level, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [33]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated upward. The cost was supported, and the supply - demand fundamentals changed little. The price may oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34][36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost [36][38]. - Supply: The domestic stainless - steel production in August is expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [37]. - Logic: The futures price was strong. The cost was supported, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 1st, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume decreased [39]. - Supply: The production in August increased, but the supply was expected to contract recently [40]. - Demand: The demand was stable and optimistic, and the demand in September is expected to increase [40]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly in all links last week [42]. - Logic: The futures price was weak, and the main - contract center moved down. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the price may oscillate widely between 72,000 - 78,000 yuan [43]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and widely [43][44]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price decreased significantly, and the spot price followed the decline [44]. - Cost and profit: The cost support may weaken, and the steel profit decreased significantly in August [44]. - Supply: The iron - element production increased from January to August. The steel production reached a new high this year, and the production may decline seasonally after the military parade [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand may weaken seasonally, and the export remained at a high level. The demand is expected to improve in September and October [45]. - Inventory: The inventory increased significantly in August, and it is expected to increase more slowly in the future [45]. - View: The steel price may continue to decline. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to ore [46]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [47]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore decreased [47]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties was calculated [47]. - Demand: The steel - mill profit rate was at a high level, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment increased significantly, and the port arrival volume increased [48]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the port - clearance volume decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [49]. - View: The iron - ore price may not have a strong upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49]. Coking Coal - Spot: The spot price oscillated weakly, and the coal - mine inventory increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the import - coal price decreased [51][53]. - Demand: The coking - plant and blast - furnace operating rates decreased due to production restrictions [51][52][53]. - Inventory: The coal - mine, port, and border - port inventories increased slightly, and the coking - plant and steel - mill inventories decreased slightly [52][53]. - View: The coking - coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [53]. Coke - Spot: The seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the eighth - round increase was blocked [54][56]. - Supply: The coking - plant operating rate decreased due to production restrictions [54][56]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased, and the demand may be affected by production - reduction policies [55][56]. - Inventory: The coking - plant, port, and steel - mill inventories all increased slightly [56]. - View: The coke price may decline in the future. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coke [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The domestic soybean - meal spot price increased on September 1st, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed - meal trading volume was 100 tons [57]. - Fundamental news: There were various news about soybean production and trade around the world, such as the expected increase in US soybean crushing in July and the decrease in EU soybean imports [57][58]. - Market outlook: The US soybean yield is expected to be high, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the market. The domestic meal price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the 3000 - 3050 range [59][60]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated upward on September 1st [61]. - Market data: The profit of live - pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [61][62]. - Market outlook: The short - term supply tightened, which boosted the price, but the duration may be limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [62].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial area, the policy is favorable to the capital market, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the commodity market, different industries have different supply - demand relationships and price trends, affected by factors such as macro - economy, industry policies, and seasonal factors [3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes China's initiatives in AI cooperation, new energy vehicle delivery data, and EU's stance on tariffs. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the general direction is to buy on dips, although short - term fluctuations may intensify [2][3]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contracts are provided [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose. News includes the SCO summit and Hong Kong's development in green finance. The strategy is that under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the bond market may fluctuate in the short term [4][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have different trends. With the expected Fed rate cuts, precious metal prices are expected to rise, especially silver, and the gold - silver ratio may decline. It is recommended to buy silver on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - After reaching a high, copper prices fell back. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. With the high probability of Fed rate cuts and tight raw material supply, copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic inventory increased, and the demand showed marginal improvement. With the Fed's dovish signal, if the inventory turns around, aluminum prices may rise more strongly [11]. Zinc - Zinc prices showed a low - level shock pattern. Zinc concentrate is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the Fed rate cut expectation is high, the industry is in an oversupply situation [12]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong. The lead concentrate inventory is decreasing, and the supply is narrowing. Although the downstream demand is weak, the Fed rate cut expectation is high [13][14]. Nickel - In the short term, the macro - environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be supported. The nickel ore price is stable, and the prices of nickel - iron and intermediate products are expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [15][16]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be volatile. The supply is decreasing significantly due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while the demand is in the off - season [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices are in a weak adjustment. With the approaching peak season of the lithium - battery industry, attention should be paid to overseas supply. The risk of a sharp decline in prices is small [18][19]. Alumina - After a sharp decline, the downward space of alumina futures prices is limited. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose. With the approaching traditional consumption peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be supported [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices may be high. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the cost is supportive, and the market activity is increasing [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The overall demand for steel is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and cost support [24][25]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The overseas shipment is increasing, the demand is affected by blast furnace maintenance, and the inventory situation is complex [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28][29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are weak. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions. The black sector may be under pressure in the future [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply pressure is greater than the demand support. Polysilicon prices are in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern and are highly volatile [34][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The mid - term view is bullish. The opening rates of tire enterprises show different trends, and the inventory situation is complex [38][39]. Crude Oil - Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the oil price is undervalued. It is recommended to maintain a long - position view but not to chase the high price [40]. Methanol - Methanol supply pressure is increasing, and the market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Urea is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. Styrene - The BZN spread has room for upward repair. After the inventory de - stocking inflection point, the styrene price may rebound [43]. PVC - PVC has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [45]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol is still excessive, and the mid - term inventory may accumulate. The valuation may decline [46]. PTA - The supply of PTA is in a de - stocking pattern, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and buy on dips [47][48]. p - Xylene - The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. It is recommended to follow crude oil and buy on dips in the peak season [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices may oscillate upward. The cost is supportive, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand may increase in the peak season [50]. Polypropylene (PP) - PP has a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips for the LL - PP2601 contract [51]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices may rise today. The supply in September may be weak, but there are potential supports. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [53]. Eggs - Egg prices are mostly stable. The supply pressure is dominant. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and use the far - month reverse spread strategy [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The cost of soybean imports is weak and stable. Domestic soybean meal may enter the de - stocking stage in September. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range [55][56]. Oils and Fats - Oils and fats prices are expected to be oscillated and strong. The fundamentals support the price center, and the palm oil may rise in the fourth quarter [57][58]. Sugar - Sugar prices are in a downward view. The domestic supply may increase, and the price depends on the external market [59][61]. Cotton - Cotton prices are expected to be volatile at a high level. The downstream consumption may improve in the peak season, and the current inventory is low [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased investment in precious metals, with gold approaching its previous high and silver breaking through $40, reaching its highest level since 2011. The A - share market sentiment remains strong, and trading volume is still high. The US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar maintains a weak trend. The stock index futures market is expected to remain bullish in the short term, and the US stock index is expected to fluctuate upward due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][3][4]. - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of various products show different trends. For example, the production of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the production of polycrystalline silicon may increase in September. The price trends of different commodities also vary, with some expected to be volatile, some to decline slightly, and some to have potential upward momentum [5][56]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent but has made many mistakes. Market concerns about its independence have led to a strong rise in precious metals. The expected trend of gold is bullish but with increased volatility. Whether it can break through the previous high remains to be seen [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The cross - regional traffic volume during the summer vacation increased by 7% year - on - year, and the SCO issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. The A - share market sentiment is strong, and trading volume is high. It is recommended to allocate the stock indices evenly [16][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary's statement implies that the US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak [23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are hard to ease, but short - term expectations of interest rate cuts support the risk appetite of the US stock market. The index is expected to fluctuate upward [25][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through reverse repurchase operations. There are opportunities to go long on treasury bonds, but the rhythm needs to be grasped [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August, the national soybean crushing volume increased, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose slightly. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US balance sheet and Sino - US relations [29][30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In September, the arrival of imported rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 10.22% month - on - month. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions and pay attention to the production in August and the MPOB report [32][33][34]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of raw sugar increased, and the export of Indian sugar in the 2025/26 season may reach 200,000 tons. The domestic sugar market is under pressure from imported processed sugar, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the 1 - month contract on dips [35][36][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price difference between rice and flour is at a low level. Attention should be paid to the driving factors for widening the price difference [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises in August decreased month - on - month but were still higher than the same period last year. The futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year, and the heavy - truck sales increased by 35%. The steel price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with a callback mindset [43][44][47]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - During the summer vacation, the national railway transported 2.43 billion tons of thermal coal. The price of steam coal is expected to decline slightly seasonally and maintain a range of 650 - 700 yuan [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and short - selling should be cautious [49][50]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal and entering the sugar - increasing period. The futures price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [51][52]. 2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Some coal mines are operating normally, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The demand side is under pressure, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polycrystalline Silicon) - There are many positive news, but the production in September may increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in time and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and December [56][58][59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel industry in Indonesia is operating normally. The raw material price is firm, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels [60][61][62]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is less than expected. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [63][64]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The merger of Sayona and Piedmont was completed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities after de - stocking and the strengthening of the basis, as well as positive arbitrage opportunities [65][66]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is weak, and the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to turn from loose to tight. It is recommended to consider long positions at low levels and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [69][70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Traders plan to make large - scale deliveries of copper futures. The market is paying attention to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on a single - side basis and wait and see on an arbitrage basis [71][73][74]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the LME zinc price is strong. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [75][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG in East China is stable, and the 9 - month CP price remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of upward valuation repair of CP [77][78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The supply of Nayara refinery depends entirely on Russia. The oil price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [82][83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has declined, and the basis has weakened. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [85][87][88]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has decreased, mainly due to the reduction of refinery production. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine has increased. The supply of urea is under pressure, and the demand is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the new Indian tender [90][91]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downward, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [92][93]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has increased. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the outlook in the fourth quarter is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy [94][95]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [97]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens [98]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of the Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia increased by 15.4% in the first half of the year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high from late September to early October. The 10 - month contract has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to the support at 1,250 [99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains an "Overweight" stance on Chinese stocks; Standard Chartered Bank maintains an "Overweight" rating on Chinese stocks in its "2025 H2 Global Market Outlook" [38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic sentiment generally continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August showing month - on - month increases [2][20] - The overseas business of futures companies is accelerating development, driven by policy support and the concentrated overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises [3] - The bond market is expected to have limited adjustment space and may continue to consolidate in the short term [26] - The A - share market may show a phased shock consolidation feature in September, with market hotspots in a rotation state [38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points [1][2][20] - In July 2025, M1 and M2 increased by 5.6% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, showing an upward trend [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Personal consumer loan interest subsidies will be available from September 1st, with multiple banks promoting related products [2] - Many domestic commodity futures showed inventory changes on August 29th, with some increasing and some decreasing [4][5] - China and the US held economic and trade talks, emphasizing cooperation and the management of differences [6] 3.2.2 Metals - As of mid - August 2025, the price of electrolytic copper increased by 0.94% month - on - month [7] - London's basic metals generally rose on August 29th, with domestic copper demand expected to improve [7] - International precious metal futures generally closed higher due to weak US economic data [8] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In H1 2025, the coking industry faced difficulties, with most listed coke companies reporting losses [9] - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most coal products increased, while the price of rebar decreased slightly [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China is promoting policies to support private enterprises in major projects and consumer replacement [11][12] - China has achieved large - scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil, with production hitting a record high [12] - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most oil and gas products decreased [12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most agricultural products increased [14][15] - China is strengthening the management of crop varieties and protecting permanent basic farmland [15] - A batch of Russian rapeseed oil was imported into Chengdu, marking a new breakthrough in international grain and oil trade [16] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 22.731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature on Friday [18] - On August 29th, the central bank conducted 782.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net investment of 421.7 billion yuan [19] 3.3.2 Important News - The economic sentiment in China continues to expand, and policies are being promoted to support private enterprises and consumer replacement [20] - The sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises from January to August decreased by 13.3% year - on - year, and the market may recover moderately in September [22] - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently cut deposit rates [23] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was generally strong, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining slightly [26] - Most Vanke bonds rose, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell [26] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB rose against the US dollar, while the US dollar index fell slightly [29][30] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - After Powell's speech, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [31] - The Trump administration may interfere with the Fed's personnel, potentially leading to monetary easing [31] 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On September 1st, 121 bonds will be listed, 64 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be paid, and 604 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [33][34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Next week, 29 A - shares will be lifted from lock - up, with a total market value of 18.877 billion yuan [35] - In H1 2025, Shanghai - listed companies' revenues decreased slightly, while profits increased [35] - As of the end of August, the scale of Shanghai ETFs exceeded 3.7 trillion yuan, with significant capital inflows [36]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index market, although there are short - term fluctuations after continuous rises, the long - term direction is still favorable. In the bond market, interest rates may have downward space in the long run, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, the Fed's potential continuous interest rate cuts are expected to drive up precious metal prices, especially silver. In the non - ferrous metals market, most metals are expected to have different degrees of price support, while zinc shows an oversupply situation. In the black building materials market, the demand for steel products is weak, and the prices are under pressure, while the price of iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile. In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products market, different products also present different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][7]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI also increased. The policy shows care for the capital market. After recent continuous rises, the market may have increased short - term fluctuations, but the long - term is still a buying - on - dips strategy [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The performance of treasury bond contracts on Friday showed small increases. The manufacturing PMI in August improved but was still below the boom - bust line. The sales of real estate enterprises from January to August decreased year - on - year. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 4217 billion yuan. In the long run, interest rates may have downward space, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern [4][5]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic gold and silver futures rose, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver fell. Due to the personnel changes in the Fed and the marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed is expected to enter an interest - rate - cut cycle, which is a significant positive factor for precious metal prices, especially silver, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline. It is recommended to buy silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The copper price showed a volatile upward trend. The inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the supply of scrap copper was tight. The开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined. With the approach of the peak season and the support of fundamentals, the copper price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price rebounded on Friday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is relatively low, and the demand has improved marginally. With the Fed's dovish signal and the expectation of interest rate cuts in September, the aluminum price has strong support. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes [10]. Zinc - The zinc price showed a weak trend. The zinc concentrate is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the zinc ingot social inventory is rapidly accumulating. The downstream demand is weak. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is high, the zinc price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern in the short term [11]. Lead - The lead price declined slightly. The lead concentrate inventory decreased marginally, and the processing fee was in a downward trend. The supply of lead ingots decreased marginally. With the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price is expected to be strong [12]. Nickel - The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable. The price of nickel iron is expected to be stable and strong, and the price of intermediate products is expected to be strong. In the short term, the macro - environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [13][14]. Tin - The domestic tin price rose sharply last week due to the shortage of tin ore supply. The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in September, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to be strong and volatile [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate showed a weak adjustment. With the approach of the peak season in the lithium - battery industry, the supply - demand relationship is gradually repairing, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news [17]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased. The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the macro - sentiment is improving. The short - term downward space of the alumina price is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased slightly. The short - term downstream demand is insufficient, but with the approach of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly [19][20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy was stable. The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the inventory is increasing. With the support of cost and the increase in market activity, the price is expected to be high in the short term [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the profit of steel mills is shrinking. If the demand cannot improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipping is stable, the demand for iron ore decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. The soda ash price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to decline. The supply of manganese silicon is increasing, and the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon has no obvious contradiction. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly volatile, with over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand. The polysilicon price is in the pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", and the price is expected to fluctuate [33][34][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - The rubber price is expected to be strong in the short term. The rainy weather in Thailand may drive up the price. The mid - term strategy is a long - position strategy. It is recommended to buy on dips and close positions quickly [38][42]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil showed a mixed trend. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for crude oil but not to chase the high price [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol decreased. The domestic supply is increasing, the port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. Urea - The price of urea decreased. The domestic supply decreased due to the increase in maintenance devices, and the demand is mainly concentrated in exports. It is recommended to buy on dips [46]. Styrene - The price of styrene decreased. The cost - end supply is abundant, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The long - term price is expected to rebound [47]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The domestic supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [49]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased slightly. The supply is still in excess, and the mid - term inventory is expected to accumulate. The short - term price is supported by less arrivals and policy sentiment, but the mid - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - The price of PTA decreased. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the demand improved. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX [51]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene decreased. The PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is expected to be low. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene decreased. The cost - end has support, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The price is expected to be volatile and upward [53][54]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene decreased. The supply pressure is large, the demand is recovering seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The pig price rose over the weekend. The supply in September may be weak, but the demand and other factors have potential support for the pig price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound of the disk [57]. Eggs - The egg price was stable over the weekend with partial increases. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is flat. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and use the backwardation strategy [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of soybean meal was weak last week and increased slightly over the weekend. The supply of global protein raw materials is in excess, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost needs to be tested. The soybean meal price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the low - end of the cost range [59][60]. Oils and Fats - The price of oils and fats decreased. The fundamentals support the price center of oils and fats. The palm oil price is expected to be volatile and strong before the full accumulation of inventory and the negative feedback of demand [61][63]. Sugar - The price of sugar was volatile. The domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the valuation is high. The overall view is bearish, and the downward space depends on the international sugar price [64][65]. Cotton - The price of cotton was volatile. Although the downstream consumption is average, with the approach of the peak season and the low inventory, the cotton price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US consumer confidence index dropped to a 3 - month low, and inflation data reinforced the Fed's possible rate - cut expectation next month, making the US dollar index weak and global risk appetite cool. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.4 but stayed below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations, domestic risk appetite has risen in the short term. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation [3]. - For assets, the stock index is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term high - level shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is advised; among commodity sectors, black is short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is needed; non - ferrous is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is required; precious metals are short - term high - level shock - strong, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: US consumer confidence decline and inflation data strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite [3]. - Domestic: China's August manufacturing PMI improved slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce service consumption policies. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic easing expectations, raising domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and domestic policy implementation [3]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; treasury bonds - short - term high - level shock, cautious waiting; black - short - term shock, cautious waiting; non - ferrous - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; energy and chemicals - short - term shock, cautious waiting; precious metals - short - term high - level shock - strong, cautious long [3]. Stock Index - Driven by battery, small metals, and liquor sectors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's August manufacturing PMI improved but was below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption will be introduced. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the steel futures and spot markets were weak, with low trading volumes. The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" increases the expectation of steel production cuts. Currently, the fundamentals are weak, with inventory increasing and consumption of some varieties falling. Due to electric - furnace steel复产, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern restrictions. In early September, northern restrictions may further intensify. The steel market may rebound in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices were weak. High steel mill profits led to high daily hot - metal production, but northern restrictions in the coming week made steel mills cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 90.8 tons, and arrivals decreased by 83.3 tons. Mainstream Australian powder supply was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell. Iron ore port inventory decreased slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were weak. With the increase in steel production, ferroalloy demand was okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the north was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with minor fluctuations. New production capacity may increase daily output by 500 - 800 tons in the future. The national silicon manganese enterprise开工 rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%, and daily output was 30170 tons, up 590 tons. Manganese ore prices were weak. Silicon iron was in a weak supply - demand balance, with stable cost support. The national silicon iron enterprise开工 rate was 36.18%, up 1.86%, and daily output was 16125 tons, up 3.43% (535 tons). Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Other Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the soda ash futures contract fluctuated. Supply decreased week - on - week, and new capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand was stable week - on - week, but downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week and were in a loss state. Soda ash has a high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, the glass futures contract fluctuated. Supply increased slightly, with stable production, increased开工 rate, and more production lines in operation. Demand was stable, with weak real - estate demand but increased downstream orders in mid - August. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macroscopically, Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook led to a dollar decline. The US PCE inflation was in line with expectations, and a September rate cut is likely. However, domestic copper demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price may not last [9][10]. Aluminum - Last Friday, the aluminum closing price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest. Aluminum inventory reached 620,000 tons, exceeding expectations. LME aluminum inventory was stable at a neutral level. In the medium term, the aluminum price increase is limited, and in the short term, it will fluctuate due to the peak - season expectation [10]. Aluminum Alloy - Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing the production cost of recycled aluminum plants. It is the off - season, with weak demand. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, but the upside is limited [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some Yunnan smelters were under maintenance, and the tin ore supply was tight but will ease. African tin ore imports declined in July. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak, with a decline in new photovoltaic installations and related industries. This week, the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9161 tons. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. Lithium Carbonate - As of August 28, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, down 0.6%, with a 49.35%开工 rate. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium spodumene production increased. The August monthly production was 85,240 tons, up 5%. The Australian lithium spodumene concentrate CIF price dropped by 7.1%. Lithium carbonate production reached a new high in August, and the profit of lithium spodumene smelting compensated for the decrease in lithium mica. There are still disturbances regarding the reserve verification report of Yichun mining enterprises before the end of September. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon - The latest weekly production was 93,954 tons, up 7.0%. The number of open furnaces increased by 12 to 309, with an opening rate of 38%. Production increased in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon - The August production is estimated to be about 1.28 million tons, and the September production plan may increase. There are rumors of a slight production cut in September, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells were stable, and the component procurement bid price increased, but the market mainstream price did not follow. The latest weekly inventory was 268,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 5,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 340 to 6,880. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to turn weak in a fluctuating manner [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The probability of a short - term缓解 of the Russia - Ukraine situation is low, and the oil price rose slightly due to the risk of reduced Russian supply. Later, the North Sea spot benchmark and discount decreased, and the C - structure deepened. There is still short - term spot buying support, but the seasonal weakening of demand after September may lead to accelerated oversupply. The medium - and long - term bearish expectation of the oil price is strong. Attention should be paid to the OPEC production decision on September 7 and the rate - cut path in September [14][15]. Asphalt - The oil price change was limited, and the asphalt price was stable under cost support. The asphalt spot market was weak, and the basis decreased slightly. The social inventory did not decrease significantly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Profits recovered, and the开工 rate increased significantly. In the future, the oil price may decline due to OPEC+ production increases. With limited inventory reduction, the asphalt market may remain weakly fluctuating in the short term [15]. PX - The PX price rose due to the Zhejiang Petrochemical year - end maintenance plan but did not break through further. The PTA开工 rate is currently low but may increase. PX is in a tight supply situation. The PXN spread decreased to $255, and the PX foreign market price rebounded to $849. The PX market will fluctuate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [15]. PTA - Currently, the PTA load decreased slightly, and the high basis caused by the previous spot shortage has weakened. The processing fee has increased, and there are expectations of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed, and the downstream开工 rate is 89.8%. PTA will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. The load of syngas - based plants is high, with limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is limited. The long - term anti - involution logic is not highly priced. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the downstream开工 recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price decreased slightly due to the sector - wide decline. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the short - fiber开工 rate rebounded slightly. The short - fiber inventory increased slightly. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. It is recommended to go short on the short - fiber in the medium term following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals increased the supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window due to the port price decline supported the spot price. The planned restart of MTO plants and the upcoming traditional downstream peak season indicate a marginal improvement in the methanol fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory suppresses the price. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. PP - The PP plant开工 rate increased, and new capacity was put into operation, resulting in a new high in weekly supply. The downstream开工 rate increased slightly, but the demand was weak. Although there is policy support, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. LLDPE - Current maintenance has relieved the supply pressure. Downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the inventory has decreased. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as the maintenance ends and supply returns, the pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The LLDPE price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectation of new - crop US soybeans in August, the historical yield estimate has been revised. Recently, the export sales data improved due to Sino - US soybean trade negotiation news, and the net long position of CBOT soybean funds increased. With the upcoming harvest of US soybeans, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not optimistic. The pressure of concentrated listing is expected to be better than in previous years, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [18][19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The CBOT soybean futures price may be under pressure in the short term. Domestically, the increase in imported soybean rotation and the high - level procurement of oilseeds in the third quarter lead to a large inventory pressure. The risk of near - month/spot contracts has not subsided, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term. Rapeseed meal has a large high - inventory circulation pressure, but the low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases provide an upward - fluctuation basis [19]. Oils - Southeast Asian palm oil is in the peak production season. Exports are limited by the closure of the Indian low - tax festival stocking window and the substitution impact of international soybean oil. It is expected that Indonesia's low inventory will recover, and Malaysia's inventory pressure will increase. The price difference between international oilseeds and crude oil is under pressure, limiting the overall boost to oils. It is expected that domestic palm oil will be under pressure due to the weakening cost, while soybean and rapeseed oils have increased supply and demand, sufficient inventory, and a low - valued market may be repaired relative to palm oil [19]. Corn - In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases, and the main futures price has entered the range of last year's opening price. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as in last year, the carry - over inventory is low, and there is still a risk of excessive rainfall in the main production areas. Although the planting cost has decreased with the decline in land - leasing costs, under the policy atmosphere of stabilizing the price of important agricultural products and increasing farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's range [19]. Pigs - At the end of August, the reduction in enterprise pig sales drove up the pig price, with an unexpected increase. The official has proposed the core regulation direction of "reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and restricting secondary fattening" to prevent large price fluctuations. The early - August sales and weight reduction have buffered some pressure, and some local areas have started purchasing and storage. The market has a certain willingness to support the price at low levels. The pig price in September should not be overly pessimistic [20].