Market Overview - The A-share market continued to fluctuate with all three major indices slightly rising, showing significant divergence in individual stock performance. The total trading volume was 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating cautious capital chasing higher prices [1] - Over 2,700 stocks rose, with 55 stocks hitting the daily limit, while the number of stocks on consecutive limit-ups decreased to 5, suggesting a shift in market sentiment from speculative trading to trend-driven stocks. The ChiNext index, driven by the explosive growth in sectors like optical modules and PCB, emerged as the strongest index of the day [2] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the two markets was 30.984 billion yuan, but there was a clear reallocation trend. Technology sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing chips saw continued accumulation, while traditional cyclical sectors like cement, infrastructure, and high-dividend sectors such as banks, electricity, and oil experienced significant withdrawals [3] Policy Impact - The implementation of a national childcare subsidy system was announced, effective from January 1, 2025, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old. This policy is expected to positively impact stocks related to the three-child policy, such as Aiyingshi, Haiziwang, and Beiyinmei [4][5][8] AI Market Trends - The AI boom is resurging in the market, with significant gains in computing power sectors and a strong performance in PCB concepts. Shenghong Technology's stock rose over 17%, surpassing a market capitalization of 150 billion yuan. Additionally, the stock of Shangwei New Materials hit a daily limit, becoming the first tenfold stock in A-shares since 2025 [9] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2025) held in Shanghai showcased over 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits and more than 800 tech companies, marking a record for the event. Huawei's offline exhibition of the Ascend 384 super node was highlighted as a significant breakthrough in domestic computing power [10] - There is a consensus in the market regarding the sustained growth of the AI industry chain, particularly following the emergence of DeepSeek, which offers innovative models and open-source business models, driving demand for computing power [11] Domestic Chip Development - The acceleration of domestic substitution capabilities is evident as local AI chip manufacturers like Cambricon and Huawei Ascend continue to iterate their technologies. Companies such as Alibaba's Pingtouge, Tencent's Zixiao, and Baidu's Kunlun are also speeding up ASIC chip development, potentially reducing reliance on NVIDIA and compressing its market share in China [16] Investment Opportunities - Three major investment opportunities are suggested: 1. IDC and related support: Companies like Aofei Data, Capital Online, and Data Port 2. H20 industry chain: Companies such as Inspur Information and Oulu Tong 3. Computing power leasing: Companies like Qihua Data and Yitian Intelligent 4. AI agents: Companies including Wanxing Technology, Meitu, and Kuaishou [18]

中国基金报记者 任子青 【导读】淡水泉创始人、首席投资官赵军罕见发声 7 月 25 日，知名百亿私募淡水泉投资举办交流会，淡水泉创始人、首席投资官赵军罕见发 声。 回顾今年上半年整体市场情况，赵军表示，上半年投资者风险偏好维持高位，内需、关税等 宏观要素对市场的影响呈现中性收敛趋势。市场机会方面呈现 " 哑铃型 " 特征，一类是价值 红利类资产，另一类是新兴成长类资产。 展望下半年，赵军表示，主要看好三类结构性机会：一是优质中国资产的价值重估，二是中 国优势产业的全球化，三是科技自主可控。 上半年市场机会呈现 " 哑铃型 " 特征 回顾今年上半年整体市场情况，赵军表示，自去年 9 月 24 日以来， A 股及港股市场投资者 风险偏好维持在相对高位，尽管指数整体波澜不惊，但市场内部结构变化显著，市场资金积 极寻找投资机会。虽有内需、关税、地缘冲突等宏观事件形成短暂冲击，但对市场的影响呈 现中性收敛趋势，说明市场对宏观预期较为 稳定。 赵军表示，整体来看，上半年机会呈 " 哑铃型 " 特征。一类是过去几年表现较好的价值红利 类资产，但这类资产内部出现分化，银行板块 " 一枝独秀 " ；另一类是新兴成长类资产，这 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the AI infrastructure provider, Jiliu Technology, has successfully completed nearly 100 million yuan in Series A+ financing, led by Shanghai Guotou Futeng Capital and Guofang Innovation, with participation from other funds [1] - Jiliu Technology, founded in 2023 at Tsinghua University, focuses on overcoming the bottlenecks of "long-distance distributed computing communication" in AI infrastructure, achieving significant growth in cluster delivery and GPU deployment [2] - The funds from this round of financing will be allocated to three main areas: R&D for high-speed networks and communication algorithms, expanding delivery and operation teams in key regions, and building an open ecosystem with domestic GPU and storage partners [3] Group 2 - The investment rationale from Shanghai Guotou Futeng Capital emphasizes Jiliu Technology's unique experience in deploying large-scale clusters and its ability to provide low-latency training solutions across cities [4] - The recent government policies encouraging early-stage investments in hard technology and the establishment of infrastructure subsidies are seen as supportive of Jiliu Technology's growth in the AI computing sector [5]

国投证券指出，创业板指为代表的低估值大盘成长板块在当前流动性充沛环境下正迎来估值修复机会。 创业板指PE为33.89倍，处于近十年23.82%分位，是主流宽基指数中估值水位最低的方向之一，同时其 Q1利润增速达19%，显著优于全A的3.46%。产业层面，AI算力、创新药、半导体、新能源等新动能行 业相继迎来周期性拐点，为创业板指占优提供支撑。当前市场正处于"新旧动能转换"第二阶段，科技科 创维持占优推荐，创业板指或成为最受益方向。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰创业板50ETF发起联接A（023371），国泰创业板50ETF发起联接C （023372）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅可达20%。该指数由深圳 证券交易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance recovery of several "billion-level" stock selection fund managers in the second quarter, driven by effective portfolio adjustments and a focus on sectors like AI computing and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Manager Performance - Fund managers such as Hu Zhongyuan, Gao Nan, and Lan Xiaokang have achieved notable returns, with some funds exceeding 20% returns since the second quarter [4]. - Specific funds like Hu Zhongyuan's Huashang Runfeng A and Gao Nan's Yongying Ruixin A have shown impressive performance, with returns over 20% [4]. - Other funds, including Zhongou Value Return A and Morgan Emerging Power A, have also reported returns exceeding 10% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - "Growth-style" fund managers are actively exploring opportunities in AI computing and innovative pharmaceuticals, while "value-style" managers focus on large financial and resource sectors [2][11]. - The "dumbbell strategy" is employed by some managers, balancing investments between technology growth and high-dividend stocks [2]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Significant investments have been made in AI computing and innovative pharmaceuticals, with managers like Hu Zhongyuan and Du Meng increasing their stakes in companies like Xinyi Technology and Tianfu Communication [7][8]. - The financial and resource sectors are also highlighted as key areas of focus, with managers like Lan Xiaokang and Han Chuang making substantial investments in these areas [11]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The article suggests that the domestic market is poised for a comprehensive revaluation, driven by advancements in high-tech sectors and a shift in capital from traditional industries [13]. - The potential for high-quality economic transformation is emphasized, with AI computing expected to play a crucial role in enhancing economic output [13].

Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext board is becoming the leading flagbearer of the current bull market's second wave, with historical patterns indicating that the "mid-air refueling station" phase in a bull market often brings excess returns [1] Market Performance - As of today, the ChiNext index has experienced five consecutive days of gains, reaching a new high for the year, continuing its strong performance since mid-July [3] - The ChiNext ETF's latest circulating scale has grown to 8.692 billion yuan as of July 22, indicating accelerated capital allocation towards the ChiNext [3] Core Drivers - Improvement in the overseas environment, with the Fed's recent dovish signals and a decline in the dollar index below 97, stabilizing the RMB around 7.05 [3] - Domestic policy measures have intensified, with the State Council approving substantial initiatives to promote the development of the private economy, alongside a net liquidity injection of 150 billion yuan through MLF operations [4] - The acceleration of industrial upgrades is evident, with leading companies in the ChiNext, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, reporting significant performance exceeding expectations [4] Market Characteristics and Future Outlook - Market trading volume has significantly increased, with total A-share turnover rising from approximately 1.5 trillion yuan to nearly 2 trillion yuan [5] - Valuation advantages remain, as the ChiNext index's valuation percentile is still below 40%, significantly lower than other indices like CSI 300 and SSE Composite [5] - Signs of market rotation are emerging, with funds shifting from value sectors like banks to technology growth stocks, which is beneficial for market stability [5] Investment Strategy - Historical bull market trends suggest that the ChiNext index has the potential for further upward movement, having rebounded approximately 50% since September 24 [6] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is expected to raise policy expectations, with August typically being a favorable month for growth stocks [6] - Recommended focus areas include AI computing (Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng), innovative pharmaceuticals (Kanglong Chemical, Taige Pharmaceutical), and new energy (Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy) [6]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The central bank's monetary policy is leaning towards limited easing, with the cancellation of pledged bond freezes having a neutral impact on the bond market [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is in its early stages and has not yet directly affected the bond market, primarily influencing through the stock market [3] Group 2: Swine Industry Outlook - The long-term value reassessment opportunity for the swine industry is promising, with pig prices expected to decline in the short to medium term due to supply pressures [4] - Key recommended companies in the swine sector include Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4] Group 3: Poultry and Animal Health - The poultry market is experiencing price declines, with a focus on marginal improvements in the cycle [5] - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, with a growing interest in the pet medical industry, projected to reach a market size of 840 billion yuan by 2024 [7] Group 4: Machinery Industry Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 14% in June 2025, driven by significant increases in exports of motorcycles over 250cc [12][14] - Africa continues to show high growth rates in motorcycle exports, with a notable increase of 63% [15] Group 5: Computer Industry Developments - The AI computing market is experiencing exponential growth, with significant opportunities in AI processors and related sectors [18] - Recommended companies in the AI computing space include Haiguang Information and Nvidia [19] Group 6: Apparel Industry Performance - Xtep International's main brand shows steady growth, while the Saucony brand is expected to grow significantly, with a 20%+ increase in retail sales [22] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 144.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding net profit of 13.7 billion yuan [25] Group 7: Automotive Sector Trends - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a notable increase in stock prices for companies like Li Auto and NIO [26] - The launch of new models, including the Li Auto i8 and Tesla Model Y 6-seater, is expected to drive consumer interest [27][29] Group 8: Sportswear Industry Insights - Anta Sports reported low single-digit growth in its main brand, while outdoor brands are experiencing strong growth, with a 50%-55% increase in sales for other brands [32] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's international market presence [34] Group 9: Consumer Goods Market Analysis - The consumer goods sector is under pressure, with a decline in retail sales for food and beverage categories, particularly in the restaurant sector [43] - Recommendations for consumer goods include companies like Nongfu Spring and Eastroc Beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer spending [46]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with mixed performance among individual stocks [1] - Key sectors showing gains included rare earth permanent magnets, lithium mining, non-ferrous metals, and coal, while gaming, photovoltaics, CPO, and consumer electronics sectors faced declines [1] - CITIC Securities highlighted continuous catalysts in the AI computing power sector, with companies like Meta investing billions in data centers and OpenAI launching a general AI agent in ChatGPT [1] Group 2 - The announcement of the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower super project is seen as a positive development for the hydropower sector [2] - The civil explosives industry is expected to see a significant increase in concentration, with production value projected to grow from 27.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 41.7 billion yuan in 2024, averaging a 5% annual growth [2] - The domestic market indices, driven by heavyweight stocks, returned to the 3,500-point mark, with the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices nearing previous highs, indicating potential short-term technical adjustments [2]

Market Review - The recent week saw a strong performance in the Chinese stock market, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.5% and the A-share ChiNext Index increasing by 3.17%. The US stock market also showed strength, with the Nasdaq Index up by 1.5%. Key sectors in the A-share market included AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and military industry, while the banking sector experienced a pullback from its highs, leading to a relative weakness in dividend stocks. The market's risk appetite has increased, with A-share financing balances rising for four consecutive weeks, returning to levels not seen since April of this year [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - A new round of market uptrend is anticipated, with three main investment lines suggested: 1) High-growth new technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, military industry, marine economy, and solid-state batteries; 2) Resource sectors benefiting from price increases, including minor metals and industrial metals; 3) Stable dividend assets, which will remain an important direction for medium to long-term capital allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [2][3]. Trade Relations - Recent developments in Sino-US trade have shown a continued easing in the technology trade sector, with positive expectations for negotiations. The A-share AI computing power sector saw significant gains, partly due to Nvidia's founder announcing the lifting of sales restrictions on the H20 chip to China. Additionally, the performance forecast of leading optical module companies exceeded expectations, confirming the high prosperity of the industry chain. The postponement of the "reciprocal tariffs" deadline from July 9 to August 1 has not led to significant fluctuations in global risk appetite [3]. Economic Overview - The pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target has eased, with expectations that the upcoming Politburo meeting will focus on "structural adjustments" and strengthening policy reserves. In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in real terms, surpassing the annual target. However, the GDP deflator index has shown a widening decline, recording negative values for nine consecutive quarters. Exports and consumption have remained strong, with exports increasing by 5.9% year-on-year in dollar terms, while retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy. However, real estate continues to be a major drag on growth [3]. Sector Performance - As of July 19, 2025, 1,547 A-share companies had disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with a forecast rate of 28.6% and a positive forecast rate (including increases, slight increases, continued profits, and turnaround) reaching 44%. High-prosperity sectors include brokerage firms, certain resource sectors, and technology growth areas. Among resource sectors, precious metals and rare earths are expected to see high growth rates, while in the growth sector, AI hardware, military industry, gaming, and wind power are leading in net profit forecasts. Conversely, the real estate chain, coal mining, and liquor industries have lower positive forecast rates [3]. Capital Flow - With the improvement in profit-making effects, the influx of incremental capital into the stock market has shown a positive feedback effect. Private equity funds have been actively increasing their positions, with the stock private equity position index rising significantly to 77.36% as of July 4, 2025, an increase of 2.07% from the previous week. Additionally, A-share financing balances have risen for four consecutive weeks, with net purchases of financing funds exceeding 90 billion yuan from June 23 to July 17, bringing the financing balance back to the highest level since April of this year. The financing funds have been directed towards technology growth sectors, with the leading industries in financing purchases being electronics, computers, and power equipment [3].

策 略 研 究 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 07 月 19 日 经济预期谨慎，A 股缘何延续强势 一 周 回 顾 展 望 相关研究 - 证券分析师 券 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 研 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 究 ⚫ 一、2025 下半年经济增速可能相对上半年回落，政策重点仍偏向于调结构，是当前市场 的一致预期，A 股为什么能维持强势？1. 稳定资本市场预期政策，构建了 A 股对宏观扰 动的"隔离墙"，下行风险可控的预期深入人心。2. 反内卷建立了"短期景气亮点"和 "中期供需格局改善"逻辑的连接，上游周期和中游制造"看长做短"行情演绎更加顺 畅。3. 科技景气验证和中美贸谈判成果显现共振，强化了短期价值向成长切换行情。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 证 报 告 ...