1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing war between the US and Iran, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, has led to rising oil prices, an increase in inflation expectations, and a delay in interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have risen, inflation expectations have increased, interest - rate cut expectations have been postponed, and gold and silver prices have corrected. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5023 per ounce, down 3.1% for the week, with an upper resistance level of $5200 and a lower support level of $4900. The US silver closed at $80.7 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 4.8%, a lower support level of $77, and an upper resistance level of $86 [7][10] 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, increased inflation expectations, and postponed interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and watch and trade cautiously [12][14] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), exchange rates (euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar), US Treasury yields (10 - year, 2 - year, inflation - indexed Treasury bonds), interest rate spreads (10Y - 2Y), the Fed's balance - sheet size and its weekly changes, the gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [16][19][23] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.4%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The US January PCE price index annual rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9% [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei said on Thursday that Iran will continue to fight and use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip to pressure the US and Israel. The US Treasury Secretary said that the US Navy may, when military conditions allow, jointly with an international coalition, provide escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US February inflation and core inflation met expectations and were flat compared to the previous value. The February CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year (previous value 2.4%, expected 2.4%), and 0.3% month - on - month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%); the core CPI was 2.5% year - on - year (previous value 2.5%, expected 2.5%), and increased 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.3%, expected 0.2%) [26] 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16,494.69 kg to 1,012,467.51 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 384 kg to 105,417 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 230,871.51 kg to 10,628,787.83 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 70,614 kg to 326,566 kg [14][30] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 10, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 165,679 contracts, an increase of 5,788 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 23,736 contracts, an increase of 1,062 contracts from last week [14][34] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 18, at 20:30, the US February PPI annual rate will be released. On Thursday, March 19, at 02:00, the Fed's March interest - rate decision will be announced, and at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 14 will be released [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple black option varieties, including glass, iron ore, rebar, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and manganese silicon. It presents market data, option factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis of each variety's price trends, volatility, and market sentiment. Summary by Directory 1. Glass (FG) - **Market Data**: FG605 contract closed at 1,135 yuan yesterday, up 9 yuan (0.79%) from the previous day. Volume was 1,273,580 lots, down 589,237 lots, and open interest was 982,347 lots, down 60,441 lots [3][6]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.3757. The open interest PCR was 0.7128, at the 97.55% level in the past year. Pressure level was 1,660, and support level was 1,000 [5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination of call options; Volatility strategy - construct a short volatility combination of selling calls and puts, such as S_FG2603P1020 and S_FG2603C1140 [7]. 2. Iron Ore (I) - **Market Data**: i2605 contract closed at 811.5 yuan yesterday, up 18.5 yuan (2.33%) from the previous day. Volume was 450,593 lots, up 211,362 lots, and open interest was 471,496 lots, down 9,239 lots [15][18]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.2276. The open interest PCR was 0.8754, at the 4.90% level in the past year. Pressure level was 900, and support level was 700 [17][18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination of call options, such as B_I2605C780 and S_I2605C830; No volatility strategy provided [19]. 3. Rebar (RB) - **Market Data**: rb2605 contract closed at 3,142 yuan yesterday, up 18 yuan (0.57%) from the previous day. Volume was 919,808 lots, up 153,978 lots, and open interest was 1,626,780 lots, down 49,467 lots [27][30]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.1719. The open interest PCR was 0.5374, at the 51.84% level in the past year. Pressure level was 3,550, and support level was 3,000 [29][30]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; Volatility strategy - construct a short strangle combination of selling calls and puts, dynamically adjust positions to keep a short delta, such as S_RB2605P2950 and S_RB2605C3150 [31]. 4. Soda Ash (SA) - **Market Data**: SA605 contract closed at 1,277 yuan yesterday, up 4 yuan (0.31%) from the previous day. Volume was 1,156,590 lots, down 645,034 lots, and open interest was 973,846 lots, down 15,555 lots [39][42]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.3223. The open interest PCR was 0.4001, at the 90.20% level in the past year. Pressure level was 1,740, and support level was 1,100 [41][42]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; Volatility strategy - construct a short volatility combination, such as S_SA2605P1140 and S_SA2605C1300 [43]. 5. Ferrosilicon (SF) - **Market Data**: SF605 contract closed at 5,888 yuan yesterday, down 34 yuan (0.57%) from the previous day. Volume was 129,096 lots, up 11,343 lots, and open interest was 173,143 lots, down 7,253 lots [51][54]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.2247. The open interest PCR was 0.7036, at the 51.43% level in the past year. Pressure level was 6,000, and support level was 5,500 [53][54]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination of call options; Volatility strategy - do not recommend seller - dominated strategies (e.g., single - sell, double - sell) [55]. 6. Manganese Silicon (SM) - **Market Data**: SM605 contract closed at 6,176 yuan yesterday, up 18 yuan (0.29%) from the previous day. Volume was 206,064 lots, up 5,174 lots, and open interest was 365,719 lots, down 1,278 lots [63][66]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.2230. The open interest PCR was 0.4555, at the 11.02% level in the past year. Pressure level was 6,500, and support level was 5,900 [65][66]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination of call options; Volatility strategy - due to high geopolitical risks, do not recommend seller - dominated strategies (e.g., single - sell, double - sell) [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a volatile state, with the spot price remaining stable last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - Lithium carbonate futures are in a state of significant volatility. The spot price fluctuated narrowly last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. It is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are in a volatile state. As of March 13, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, 9,800 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,900 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and this week's suggestion is the same [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18][20][22] Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are in a state of significant volatility. As of March 13, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 158,350 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,250 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. It is recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly and it was recommended to wait and see. This week's suggestion is the same [34] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The futures index maintains a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to domestic economic data [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Index Data Tracking - On March 14, all four major futures index contracts for the current month declined. IF fell 0.08%, IH fell 0.38%, IC fell 1.14%, and IM fell 1.11% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of futures indices rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 7,329 lots, IH decreased by 1,858 lots, IC increased by 1,682 lots, and IM increased by 14,209 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 2,435 lots, IH decreased by 3,081 lots, IC decreased by 2,929 lots, and IM increased by 769 lots [2] 3.2 Futures Index Basis - The report provides the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM, including the basis values of current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [1][4] 3.3 Futures Index Top 20 Member Position Changes - The report shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of each futures index contract, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.5 Important Drivers - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outline was officially released on March 13, which is a "construction drawing" for China's economic and social development in the next five years. The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress voted and passed the resolution on the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development on March 12, deciding to approve this plan outline [6] - Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France to hold the sixth round of China-US economic and trade consultations with the US from March 14 to 17. In response to the US's plan to launch a 301 investigation against China and other economies, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce stated that China reserves the right to take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [6] 3.6 Market Performance - A-shares fluctuated lower, with technology stocks adjusting across the board. More than 3,800 stocks in the market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to close at 4,095.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%, and the Wind All A Index fell 0.94%. The market turnover was 2.42 trillion yuan, compared with 2.46 trillion yuan the previous day [8] - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated lower. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% to close at 25,465.6 points, falling for three consecutive days. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.99%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.32%. Gold stocks and airline stocks generally declined, while lithium battery and brain-computer interface concepts strengthened. Southbound funds had a net purchase of more than HK$18.4 billion [8] - The three major US stock indices closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to close at 46,558.47 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.61% to close at 6,632.19 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.93% to close at 22,105.36 points. Salesforce fell more than 3%, and Apple fell more than 2%, leading the decline in the Dow. The Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index fell 1.59%, Facebook fell nearly 4%, and NVIDIA fell more than 1%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.76%, NIO rose more than 5%, and Tencent Music rose nearly 4%. The economic data showed differentiation, inflation remained sticky, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continued to cool, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict pushed up energy prices and inflation concerns, leading to a significant increase in market risk aversion [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the ag2606 contract yesterday was 20,923 yuan, a decrease of 915 yuan or 4.18% from the previous day. The trading volume was 519,958 lots, an increase of 105,949 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 212,096 lots, an increase of 6,023 lots from the previous day [6]. - The implied volatility of AG (silver options) fluctuates above the mean of 0.4486 [6]. - The AG option open interest PCR is reported at 0.9178, at the 7.35% level in the past year [6]. - From the perspective of options, the resistance level of the AG option underlying is 37,600, and the support level is 6,700 [6]. - The closing price of the au2604 contract yesterday was 1,133 yuan, a decrease of 15.28 yuan or 1.33% from the previous day. The trading volume was 178,365 lots, an increase of 14,535 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 102,674 lots, a decrease of 3,129 lots from the previous day [18]. - The implied volatility of AU (gold options) fluctuates above the mean of 0.2645 [18]. - The AU option open interest PCR is reported at 0.7395, at the 43.67% level in the past year [18]. - From the perspective of options, the resistance level of the AU option underlying is 1,200, and the support level is 1,000 [18]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Silver Options - **Futures Market Data**: The ag2606 contract's latest price is 20,923, with a drop of 915 and a decline rate of 4.18%. The trading volume is 519,958 lots (an increase of 105,949 lots), and the open interest is 212,096 lots (an increase of 6,023 lots) [3]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of AG (silver call options) is 128,784 (an increase of 29,494), and the open interest is 124,769 (an increase of 5,278). The trading volume PCR is 0.83 (a decrease of 0.01), and the open interest PCR is 0.92 (a decrease of 0.01) [4]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: For the ag2604 contract, the at - the - money strike price is 21,100, the resistance level is 37,600, the support level is 6,700, the weighted implied volatility is 88.25% (a decrease of 0.89%), the annual average implied volatility is 44.86%, and HISV20 is 99.50% [5]. - **Option Strategies**: No directional strategy is recommended. For volatility strategies, a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy is suggested to obtain option time value. Positions should be dynamically adjusted to make the delta of the positions neutral, such as S_AG2604P2080, S_AG2604P21000, S_AG2604C21800, S_AG2604C22000 [7]. Gold Options - **Futures Market Data**: The au2604 contract's latest price is 1133, with a drop of 15.28 and a decline rate of 1.33%. The trading volume is 178,365 lots (an increase of 14,535 lots), and the open interest is 102,674 lots (a decrease of 3,129 lots) [15]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of AU (gold call options) is 40,529 (a decrease of 1,662), and the open interest is 58,945 (a decrease of 192). The trading volume PCR is 0.72 (an increase of 0.17), and the open interest PCR is 0.74 (an increase of 0.01) [16]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: For the au2604 contract, the resistance level is 1200, the support level is 1000, the weighted implied volatility is 35.77% (a decrease of 0.98%), and the annual average implied volatility is 26.4 [17]. - **Option Strategies**: For directional strategies, a bull spread strategy of call options is recommended to obtain directional returns, such as B_AU2604C1120 and S_AU2604C1160. For volatility strategies, a strategy of selling call + put options is suggested to obtain option time value returns. Positions should be dynamically adjusted to keep the delta of the positions neutral, such as S_AU2604P1120, S_AU2604C1168 [19].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 地缘冲突升级，甲醇震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 偏强 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：虽然上周末美国急调驻韩驻日美军部队赶赴中东，加大对伊朗的军事力度，美伊冲突进 一步升级，中东地缘风险仍在，国际原油期货价格仍保持偏强格局运行。短期来看，地缘风险主导 能化期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It points out that the current geopolitical conflicts, especially the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have a significant impact on the global market, leading to increased price volatility and uncertainty in various futures markets. The market is mainly affected by factors such as energy prices, supply and demand, and policy changes, and different markets show different trends and trading opportunities [21][60][71]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: High oil prices trouble the market. The Middle East situation and oil prices are important factors affecting the market. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate while waiting for the situation to become clear. Suggested trading strategies include grid operation for single - side trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF for arbitrage, and double - buy strategy for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the operation should be mainly based on a bearish mindset. Pay attention to changes in external demand and the central bank's liquidity injection attitude [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The macro - impact increases, and the market continues to oscillate. The price is affected by factors such as soybean arrivals and macro - environment. It is recommended to be cautious in trading [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices oscillate, and domestic sugar prices tend to be strong. International sugar prices are supported by factors such as production cuts in major producing countries, while domestic sugar prices are affected by supply and import policies. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou sugar in the short term [32][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The expectation of bio - diesel is good, and oils are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to hold a long position in the short term [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The increase in millet auctions leads to high - level oscillation in the market. Affected by factors such as crude oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on the 05 corn contract on dips [39][40]. - **Hogs**: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the price has generally increased. However, due to the large inventory and high slaughter weight, the price still faces certain pressure. It is recommended to short the near - month contract [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are strong, and the futures market oscillates strongly. Affected by factors such as spot prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract on dips [44][45]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and egg prices are mainly stable. Considering the off - season consumption and inventory situation, it is recommended to short the June contract [48][49]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price is relatively firm. However, due to factors such as high 5 - month contract prices and the approaching new - season production period, it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract [52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: There is strong support at the bottom of cotton prices, and the trend is oscillating and strengthening. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and international trade, it is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton on dips [55][56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Raw materials provide support, and steel prices maintain an oscillating trend. Affected by factors such as downstream demand, inventory, and overseas geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy [60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They operate in an oscillating and strengthening manner. Affected by factors such as international oil and gas prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on dips [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase, and spot hedging at high levels is the main strategy. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to hedge at high levels [65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The positive feedback continues, and the driving force remains strong. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to operate in a high - level oscillating manner [67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The geopolitical situation is repeated, and gold and silver are in an oscillating state. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and inflation expectations, it is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Concerns about secondary inflation suppress the market, and precious metals oscillate weakly. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and economic data, it is recommended to wait and see, and look for long - entry opportunities for platinum on dips [74][75]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continue to disturb, and copper prices continue to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to be cautious about liquidity risks [78][79]. - **Alumina**: Freight rates increase, and alumina fluctuates with market sentiment. Affected by factors such as freight rates and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to rebound in an oscillating manner in the short term [82][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The reduction of aluminum production in the Middle East expands, and Mozal stops production as scheduled. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on dips [84][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It operates strongly following the aluminum price. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to operate strongly following the aluminum price [88][90]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on zinc prices. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long on dips [91][92]. - **Lead**: Buy on dips. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [95][96]. - **Nickel**: The rise of the US dollar suppresses non - ferrous metals. Affected by factors such as the US dollar and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to wait for the external market to stabilize [100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates within a range. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to operate within a range [103][104]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillates in the short term and waits for policy guidance. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policies, it is recommended to wait and see [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it oscillates at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policies, it is recommended to go long on dips after the price stabilizes [107][109]. - **Tin**: The risk - aversion sentiment is high, and tin prices oscillate and decline. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to short tin [110][111]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The situation in Iran escalates after the US attacks Hagh Island. Pay attention to the collection of fuel surcharges by shipping companies. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and fuel prices, it is recommended to wait and see [112][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight Rates**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues. Pay attention to the progress of iron ore negotiations between China and Australia. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, different ship - type markets show different trends [116][119]. - **Carbon Emissions**: Domestic trading remains dull, and there is still debate within the EU. Affected by factors such as policies and geopolitical conflicts, the carbon market in China and the EU shows different trends [121][125]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict continues to intensify, and oil prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long at a high level [128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks fluctuate sharply. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to operate in a high - level oscillating manner [130][132]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation remains tense, and the trend is oscillating and strengthening. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to operate in a high - level oscillating manner [134][137]. - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continue, and the upward trend remains unchanged. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to wait and see [138][140]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long due to supply - shortage expectations [141][143]. - **BZ & EB**: The domestic operating loads of pure benzene and styrene both decline. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of logistics on supply [144][146]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene cracking enterprises reduce their loads. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long as the supply - demand structure improves [147][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the cost side and strengthens. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long following the cost side [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory reduction in the first quarter is limited. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long following the cost side [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand provide support. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long as the trend is upward [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions, and PP continues to be stronger than L. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to hold long positions for both L and PP [157][160]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda strengthens. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long [161][162]. - **PVC**: It oscillates widely. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long on dips [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates weakly. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to operate in a wide - range oscillating and weakly - downward manner [166][168]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, it oscillates widely, and the direction is downward. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to operate in a wide - range oscillating and weakly - downward manner [169][171]. - **Methanol**: It mainly oscillates at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long on dips [172][174]. - **Urea**: It oscillates mainly. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policies, it is recommended to operate in an oscillating and weakly - downward manner [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price has weak rebound momentum. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to go short [178][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The shipment is average, and the market demand is relatively stable. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to go short on rallies [182][184]. - **Log**: The import cost increases. Pay attention to the resumption of construction sites. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long on dips [186][187]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The inventory at the RU warehouse end accumulates at a slightly faster rate. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to go long on the RU 05 contract with a stop - loss [190][192]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR warehouse receipts continue to accumulate. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to hold long positions for the BR 05 contract with a stop - loss [195][197].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is volatile and weak. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy for stock index futures, while the domestic equity market may be more resilient than overseas ones. For bond futures, the short - term logic is inflation, and the curve is likely to remain steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [14][15]. - For steel and ore, short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. For iron ore, the short - straddle strategy should be maintained, and the 05 - 09 positive spread should take profits around 35 [16][18]. - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. Be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [20]. - For soda ash and glass, the current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and the macro - environment. Zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset, and short - positions in lead should take profits [24][26]. - Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Egg prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Apple prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are likely to remain at a low level [34][36][39][41][42][43][44]. - Crude oil prices are likely to rise due to supply shortages. Fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Polyolefin prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Rubber trading should be cautious, and pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Synthetic rubber prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Methanol prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Caustic soda prices are subject to supply - demand factors and should be traded according to the market rhythm. Asphalt prices follow oil prices. PVC prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. The polyester industry chain should be treated with a cautious and bullish attitude. LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [46][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][58][59]. - Paper pulp prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to inventory and price increases of finished products. Log prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Urea prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions [61][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released on March 13. The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17. The US may launch a 301 investigation against China [8]. - Apple will lower the commission rate in the Chinese App Store from 30% to 25% starting from March 15. The State Council passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the negative - list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [8][9]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, with a reduction of 100 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount [9]. - The US 1 - month core PCE increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Saudi Arabia will cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day [10][11]. - The US attacked Iran's oil export hub, and the global energy market is facing a supply crisis. The global chemical industry is experiencing "large - scale force majeure" [11][12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is weak, with technology stocks adjusting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4095.45 points. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy due to geopolitical risks [14]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose. The short - term logic of the bond market is inflation, and the curve is steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [15]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Steel orders have improved, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points. The iron ore short - straddle strategy should be held [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon - The absolute price of double - silicon is still high. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, and be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by energy sentiment [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflationary pressure, and high inventory suppresses prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to inventory and the macro - environment [24]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories continue to increase, and consumption is weak. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish and volatile in the short term [26]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventories increase, and prices are weak. Short - positions in lead should take profits [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Pay attention to the "Golden March and Silver April" demand and geopolitical impacts [34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Global sugar supply forecasts are divided, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [36]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Pay attention to feed prices and chicken inventory [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple prices are expected to be strong. The market is supported by low inventory and pre - holiday demand [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy grain supply [42]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The market will enter the off - season, and high inventory is a pressure [43]. 3.5.7 Hogs - The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Prices are likely to remain at a low level, and short positions in near - month contracts can be considered [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Supply shortages may lead to price increases. The market is facing a supply risk of over 10 million barrels per day [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Pay attention to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [48]. 3.6.3 Polyolefin - Prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Pay attention to spot market sentiment [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Consider the impact of conflicts on tire exports and weather conditions [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Pay attention to raw material supply and energy prices [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Pay attention to spring maintenance and Iranian supply [53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Prices are subject to supply - demand factors. The long - position logic is supply reduction and export growth, while the short - position logic is weak domestic demand and high - priced futures [55]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Prices follow oil prices. Demand is in the off - season, and high prices suppress speculative demand [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - Prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. Pay attention to the reduction and expansion of ethylene production [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - contraction expectation is the main trading logic. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [58]. 3.6.11 LPG - It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. Pay attention to supply risks from the Middle East and demand changes [59]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Paper Pulp - Prices have short - term support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [61]. 3.7.2 Logs - Prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory changes [61]. 3.7.3 Urea - Prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions. Pay attention to overseas disturbances and domestic policies [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trend of oil prices still shows an upward trend, but the release of strategic reserves suppresses the early - morning oil prices. Investors should pay attention to position control. For SC2604, operate in the range of 780 - 800, and wait for opportunities to short at high levels in the long - term [3]. - In the short term, continue to focus on changes in the geopolitical situation, and wait for the situation to ease in the medium - and long - term before entering the market for a reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US officials predict that the war between the US, Israel and Iran will end in weeks and energy costs will decline. Gulf countries have cut daily crude oil production by at least 10 million barrels. The US bombing of Kharg Island has expanded the conflict, but its exports are still normal [3]. - **Basis**: On March 13, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $145.82 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $100.83 per barrel. The basis was 8.36 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: From the week ending March 6, US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.38 million barrels), EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.055 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels. As of March 13, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of March 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: US President Trump threatened to strike Iran's oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. Iran's attitude is tough, and the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is slow. The IEA has coordinated member countries to release 271.7 million barrels of strategic reserves, with Asia taking the lead and Europe and America expected to release at the end of the month [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **IEA Reserve Release**: The IEA will release record - high reserves. Oil will be immediately released in Asia, while that for Europe and America will be released by the end of March. About 72% of the committed release is crude oil, and 28% is petroleum products [5]. - **US - Iran Negotiation**: US President Trump said that Iran is willing to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions are not good enough, so the US will not reach an agreement for the time being. He also said that the US and Israel's strikes have weakened Iran's military capabilities and that the US has attacked Kharg Island [5]. - **US Reserve Release**: The Trump administration has launched a program to release 86 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic reserve, which is part of a 172 - million - barrel release plan and is expected to be completed in four months [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Strait passage is not smooth; the Middle East situation deteriorates [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of 9.22%, 9.72%, 9.72%, and 13.49% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have all increased, with increases of 10.18%, 9.72%, 12.51%, 8.39%, and 12.64% respectively [9]. - **API Inventory**: As of March 6, API inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels [10]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of March 6, EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of March 10, the net long position was 228,015, an increase of 55,865 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of March 10, the net long position was 351,032, an increase of 65,438 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high. Although IEA member countries plan to release 400 million barrels of crude oil, it is difficult to offset the supply shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in the expected supply of Middle Eastern crude oil. This week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2605 contract has shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 17.38% to 753.6 yuan per barrel this week. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to maintain a strong posture [5][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price increase and basis change**: As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 84 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 579.4 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 106.6 yuan per barrel. The main contract 2604 of domestic crude oil futures closed at 664.8 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 176.4 yuan per barrel. The basis widened to - 85.4 yuan per barrel [8]. - **Geopolitical influence on prices**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to high geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The planned release of 400 million barrels of crude oil by IEA member countries cannot offset the supply shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the expected supply of Middle Eastern crude oil has decreased, and domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2605 contract has increased by 17.38% to 753.6 yuan per barrel this week [5][12][13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Maintains Excess Expectations, and the Pace of Production Increase Slows Down - **OPEC+ production increase and supply situation**: In 2023, eight OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia announced voluntary production cuts. Since the second quarter of 2025, they have shifted to a production - increasing policy. The production increase has been implemented in a phased manner. In 2025, the production of OPEC member countries increased significantly. In December 2025, the crude oil production of OPEC member countries was 28.564 million barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day. It is expected that in 2026, the global crude oil supply market will show a pattern of "OPEC+ actively expanding production to seize market share, and non - OPEC+ steadily increasing production as the main force" [23][24][25]. - **Non - OPEC production capacity**: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has intensified the supply surplus. The production of South American oil - producing countries such as Brazil and Guyana has been rising, and the US shale oil production has remained at a high level. As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 411, with a week - on - week increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 93. The average daily crude oil production in the US was 13.678 million barrels, with a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 103,000 barrels per day [37]. - **Seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere**: The US, as the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After late February, the crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the inventory will change from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventory, and the demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down [39][40]. - **US inventory and refinery situation**: As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.824 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 7.78 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.8%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points [42]. - **China's crude oil situation in 2025**: In 2025, China's crude oil imports reached a record high, with an annual import volume of 577.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The production was stable, with an annual output of 216.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The processing volume increased moderately, with an annual processing volume of 737.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure", with both support and restraint factors [46][49][50]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Break Out in Multiple Points and Crude Oil Premium Increases - **Middle East geopolitical situation**: During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting". The US - Iran confrontation, the Red Sea shipping crisis, and the escalation of the Palestine - Israel conflict have pushed up international oil prices. The US and Iran are in a "security dilemma", and the Red Sea shipping crisis has increased shipping costs. The intervention of major powers has made the situation more complex. If the situation further escalates, oil prices may break through 100 US dollars per barrel [56][57][58]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Week - on - Week - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 172,150 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 562 contracts, but a significant increase of 33,041 contracts compared with the February average, an increase of 23.75%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 246,514 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 54,198 contracts, but a significant increase of 85,120 contracts compared with the February average, an increase of 52.74% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - Due to the further escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East continues to heat up. Energy supplies from the Middle East are blocked, and Middle Eastern oil - producing countries may face production cuts. Although OPEC+ plans to resume production increase in the second quarter and IEA member countries plan to release strategic reserves, the increase in supply is less than the decrease caused by supply disruptions. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to operate in a strong posture [68].