Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to be characterized by strong supply and weak demand this week, with prices expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Traders are advised to pay attention to macro and policy impacts, operate cautiously, and control positions to manage potential volatility risks [10]. - Given the current fundamental pressure and unclear policies, traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and be wary of the risk of chasing high prices [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 ranged between 1247 - 1202 yuan/ton, showing low - level fluctuations. As of the afternoon close on July 18, 2025, the contract fell 1 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of - 0.18%, closing at 1216 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - As of July 17, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 73.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 million tons, or 3.42%. Light soda ash production was 31.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.97 million tons, and heavy soda ash production was 41.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. The increase was due to the resumption of enterprise maintenance [7][11]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.10%, compared with 81.32% last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 87.70%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 73.93%, a week - on - week increase of 3.60% [15]. - **Inventory** - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 190.56 million tons, an increase of 2.16 million tons from Monday, or 1.15%. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 4.22 million tons, or 2.26%. The inventory was 100.61 million tons more than the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 111.85% [8][19]. - **Demand Side** - The shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash increased. Last week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 69.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%; the overall shipment rate was 94.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points [9][37]. - The daily output of the float glass industry decreased by 0.38% compared to the 10th. The weekly output from July 11 - 17, 2025, was 110.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14% [25]. - As of July 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 billion weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 billion weight boxes, or 3.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period [29]. - **Spot Market Price** - The prices of most soda ash products in various regions remained stable, with only a few products having price changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 2.25%, the price of Northeast light soda ash decreased by 3.70%, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 4.26% [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply side shows continuous increases in production and capacity utilization, with individual devices increasing production. The supply is adjusted at a high level. The demand side shows stable downstream demand, with an increase in shipment volume and rate. However, the demand is relatively weak, and the industry faces significant over - capacity pressure [9][37][38]. - The market is currently focused on the 'anti - involution' policy expectations. Although the market sentiment was boosted by the news of the upcoming policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the actual impact remains to be seen as the specific policy details are not yet available [38].

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) was held in Beijing from July 16 to 20, showcasing a higher level of participating companies and products compared to previous years [1] - AGC, a leading global high-tech materials manufacturer, has been actively expanding its business in China, which is now the only market outside Japan where AGC operates all its business lines [2][3] - AGC has invested several hundred billion yen in China over the past 40 years, employing over 6,000 staff and establishing 14 legal entities [3] Group 2 - AGC aims to find good partners in China to seize opportunities in the smart connected vehicle sector and plans to increase investments in this area [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of a stable supply chain for multinational enterprises as its technology becomes embedded in the Chinese industrial chain [3] - AGC representatives highlighted the significance of the Chain Expo in connecting various industry leaders and experts, facilitating new application scenarios and partnerships [4] Group 3 - AGC's strategy includes fostering a symbiotic ecosystem with upstream and downstream enterprises to achieve mutual benefits and contribute to the stability of the global supply chain [4] - The company is committed to deepening its roots in the Chinese market and building trustworthy relationships with local partners to explore both domestic and global markets [4]

Group 1 - The core issue involves a car owner, Mr. Huang, discovering a crack in the sunroof of his Deep Blue SL03 vehicle after a car wash, which he believes is a quality issue [1][3][5] - Multiple car owners have reported similar experiences with the Deep Blue SL03, indicating a potential pattern of this issue [2][8] - The manufacturer and glass supplier have stated that the crack is not a quality problem, attributing it to external factors, which the car owner disputes [5][9][12] Group 2 - Industry professionals have noted that the straight nature of the crack does not align with typical external force damage, which usually presents with a scattering pattern [13][14][15] - A technician from the automotive repair industry expressed skepticism about the manufacturer's assessment, suggesting that the crack's characteristics indicate it may not be due to external impact [14][15] - The glass supplier has advised that any disputes regarding the assessment should be directed to the automotive brand, indicating a lack of clarity in responsibility [9][12]

玻璃： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-21 每日观点 1、基本面： "反内卷"政策提振市场情绪；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产 量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1081元/吨，基差为7元，期货 贴水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6493.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.22%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：政策利好提振情绪，玻璃基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策，光伏玻璃行业 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 326 points, marking a weekly increase of 686 points or 2.8%, continuing its upward trend for the second consecutive week [3] - The trading volume for the day was approximately 238.69 billion [3] - Notable stock performances included China Life Insurance rising by 5.1% and ZTO Express increasing by 6.5%, while Xinyi Solar fell by 3.4% [3] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The Securities and Futures Commission has reappointed three executive directors for a term of three years, effective from August 1, August 28, and November 1 [6] - The total number of registered local companies in Hong Kong has surpassed 1.49 million, a historical high, with 84,293 new companies registered in the first half of the year [7] Group 3: Economic Support Measures - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized the need to support economic recovery and high-quality urban development through enhanced financial supply [8] - The administration aims to strengthen consumer protection and prevent illegal financial activities while promoting effective investment financing [8] Group 4: Company-Specific News - Xinyi Glass anticipates a profit decline of 55% to 65% for the first half of the year, primarily due to decreased revenue and gross profit from its float glass business [10] - XPeng Motors' founder stated that China may surpass the U.S. in L2 and L3 autonomous driving technology due to faster market acceptance and regulatory support [11] - Huajian Medical has initiated the process for a stablecoin license in the U.S. as part of its strategy to develop a tokenization platform for real-world assets [12] - United Pharmaceutical announced a share placement at a discount of approximately 7.9%, aiming to raise about 2.2 billion for capital expenditures and R&D [13]

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0011243 [1] Glass Market Supply - As of July 17, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to July 10. The daily loss of float glass was 42,200 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 239,000 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 10,530 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. The potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [11][12][13] - Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - operation capacity is about 158,000 tons/day, with a peak capacity of 178,000 tons/day in 2021 and a recent low - level capacity of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period and a 7.0% decrease year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders basically maintained the previous level, with no sign of improvement in demand, and the current profit level was still low, with a few reporting a continued decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.163 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a 3.22% decrease, and a 0.29% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period. The inventory in most regions decreased slightly [3][37]. Price and Profit - This week's transactions were basically stable, with most prices unchanged. Some prices in Shahe increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe was about 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased prices by 20 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [20][23]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was weak. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas and coal fuel was about - 183 - 108 yuan/ton [26][31]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating strongly, with upper pressure at 1,180 - 1,200 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [4]. Photovoltaic Glass Market Price and Profit - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased slightly, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, a 2.33% decrease from the previous period, and the decline rate increased by 0.06 percentage points compared to last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, remaining flat compared to the previous period [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - As the market weakens, it may enter a production reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity was about 94,000 tons/day. The sample inventory days were about 35.64 days, a 2.94% increase from the previous period, and the increase rate narrowed by 3.86 percentage points compared to last week [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Market Supply - This week, soda ash enterprises' equipment gradually resumed and increased production. The domestic soda ash output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Some enterprises were in the process of maintenance or production reduction, and some were expected to have maintenance in the future [6][59]. Demand - The profits of downstream float glass processes have gradually improved, especially the profit of coal - gas production is relatively optimistic, but the production of petroleum coke and natural gas is still in a loss state. Photovoltaic glass profit is at a low level. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are generally cautious in purchasing soda ash, and demand has not expanded significantly [6]. Inventory - This period, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase from the previous period and a 111.85% increase year - on - year. The inventory of light soda ash was 783,000 tons, a decrease of 830,000 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1226 million tons, an increase of 505,000 tons from the previous period [7]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton. This week's prices changed little. The basis was weak, and the monthly spread was under pressure. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 39.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 82 yuan/ton [70][73][81]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly, with upper pressure at 1,320 - 1,340 and lower support at 1,220 and 1,150. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal, which is expected to drive demand for construction materials such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings. This will lead to significant improvements in the real estate chain's fundamentals [3] - The report recommends several companies in the consumer building materials sector, including Sankeshu (channel expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproofing leader), Weixing New Materials (high retail business ratio), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary companies include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader) [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission's action plan for the cement industry aims to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, which is expected to accelerate energy-saving and carbon reduction efforts [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 0.23% in the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 7.17%, while the construction materials index increased by 4.36%, underperforming by 2.82 percentage points. In the past year, the CSI 300 index rose by 14.68%, and the construction materials index increased by 16.62%, outperforming by 1.94 percentage points [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 280.87 CNY/ton, down 0.71% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio was 67.24%, up 1.35 percentage points [6][27] - The report highlights regional price variations, with Northeast China stable, North China up by 0.74%, and East China down by 1.90% [26] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of July 18, 2025, was 1214.63 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.71% from the previous week. The inventory of float glass nationwide decreased by 175 million weight boxes, a decline of 3.05% [82][84] - The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 116.02 CNY/weight box [89] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3300 to 4100 CNY/ton, with variations depending on the manufacturer [6] Consumer Building Materials - As of July 18, 2025, the price of asphalt was 4570 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, and up 2.93% year-to-date. The price of titanium dioxide was 13050 CNY/ton, down 1.14% month-on-month [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Beixin Building Materials and "Overweight" for Weixing New Materials [5][9]. Core Views - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, expected to boost infrastructure in Tibet [2]. - The cement industry is currently experiencing a demand downturn, but supply-side adjustments, such as staggered production halts, are anticipated to improve the situation [2][3]. - The glass manufacturing sector is facing supply-demand contradictions, but the recent self-discipline production cuts in photovoltaic glass may alleviate some of these issues [2][6]. - The consumption building materials sector is benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with significant potential for market share growth [2][6]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of recovery, particularly in wind power demand, while electronic fiberglass prices remain stable amid supply-demand differentiation [2][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of July 18, 2025, the national cement price index is 343.37 yuan/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.7828 million tons, up 2.09% [3][16]. - Infrastructure remains the only positive demand driver for cement, but local government funding pressures persist [3][16]. - The cement industry is expected to see structural opportunities in key regions like Sichuan-Chongqing and the Yangtze River Delta [3][16]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1211.96 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.58% [6][31]. - Inventory levels for sample enterprises have decreased, indicating a potential for short-term replenishment demand [6][31]. - The market remains cautious, with limited order improvements expected in the near term [6][31]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass has shown slight weakness, while demand from wind power and thermoplastics remains relatively strong [7]. - The electronic fiberglass market is experiencing stable pricing, with high-end products seeing a notable supply-demand gap [7]. Consumption Building Materials - The consumption building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, supported by declining prices of upstream raw materials [6][7]. - Companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are highlighted for their growth potential in this sector [5][9]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production costs at 106,400 yuan/ton and a negative profit margin [8]. - Demand is expected to grow in sectors like wind power and hydrogen storage, although recovery is gradual [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are driven by sentiment, with the spot market turning strong but the long - term outlook depending on cold - repair. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, with inventory building up after maintenance. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in soda ash and to observe the glass market [1] - **Log**: The log futures rose sharply, but the high - temperature season leads to low demand. The short - term upward trend's sustainability is questionable, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Rubber**: Due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and potential typhoons in Hainan, supply is disrupted, while demand is stable. Short - term rubber prices are rising, and a short - selling approach on rebounds is recommended [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has increased. The impact of rising polysilicon prices is weakening. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and large - enterprise restart plans, with a focus on price decline risks [6] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures prices have reached a new high. The short - term bullish sentiment is strong, but attention should be paid to supply - demand regulation and risk management [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions are stable, while futures prices have increased. Some spreads have changed significantly [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and inventory are increasing, while float and photovoltaic melting volumes are decreasing [1] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate indicators such as new construction area and construction area show negative growth, but the decline in some indicators has narrowed [1] Log - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures prices have generally increased, while spot prices in ports are stable. The outer - market quotation has risen [2] - **Supply**: Port shipments have increased, the number of departing ships from New Zealand has decreased, and inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand**: Log demand has decreased, and the daily outbound volume has declined [2] Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Rubber spot prices have mostly increased, and the basis of some varieties has changed [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber production in some countries has increased, tire production has increased slightly, and imports have decreased [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Rubber inventory in bonded areas and warehouses has changed, and the entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have adjusted [4] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the basis of some varieties has decreased [6] - **Monthly Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production and start - up rates have changed, and downstream product production has increased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Factory and social inventories of industrial silicon have changed slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [6] Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Polysilicon spot and futures prices have increased, and the basis and spreads of some varieties have changed [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer production and import/export volumes have changed, and demand for silicon wafers has decreased [8] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories have decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-18 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"政策提振市场情绪；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产 量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1092元/吨，基差为-4元，期货 升水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6493.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.22%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面不改偏弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历 ...