Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in light of recent developments in US-China trade negotiations, which have exceeded market expectations [3][4]. Core Insights - The easing of tariffs between the US and China is expected to provide a significant boost to the light industry export chain, presenting dual opportunities for valuation recovery and performance realization in 2025 [3][4]. - The early start of the 618 shopping festival by major e-commerce platforms indicates a strong push for domestic brands, with significant sales growth observed in local beauty brands [3][4]. Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector showed mixed performance in the week of May 12-16, with notable gains in beauty care (+3.08%), retail (+1.72%), and textiles (+1.01%), while household appliances remained flat and social services declined by -0.54% [4][14]. - Key stocks that led the gains included Jiaoda Onlly (+35.59%) in food and beverage, and Yingfeng Co. (+39.84%) in textiles, while stocks like Wufangzhai (-7.58%) and Heertai (-7.38%) faced declines [4][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report highlights the expansion of visa-free travel for citizens from Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay, effective June 1, 2025, which is expected to enhance international tourism and business exchanges [16][17]. - Companies like Li Ziyuan are focusing on stabilizing their supply chains in dairy products, while Midea Group has signed strategic agreements to enhance its market presence in smart indoor climate solutions [17][18].

□本报记者王雪青 "消费投资正在经历变革。"中金基金权益部基金经理高大亮在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，随着潮 玩IP、宠物经济等"情绪消费"崛起，硬折扣、量贩零食等新销售模式改变了渠道生态，消费投资的底层 逻辑正在经历深刻重构。 今年以来，新消费赛道崛起，港股市场中的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团等表现亮眼；A股市场中的 食品零售、宠物经济、美妆个护等具有新消费特征的公司持续受到资金追捧。 "港股市场消费股的强势上涨打开了A股市场新消费标的的估值空间。"在高大亮看来，消费板块的投资 逻辑已从传统的"白马为王"转向"新消费突围"。当下，情绪价值与渠道效率成为把握板块结构性投资机 会的关键。未来，消费企业对新渠道、新品类、新需求的前瞻布局，或成为基金经理捕捉超额收益的关 键因素。 回顾近年消费市场的主要变化，高大亮表示："最大的变化是服务型消费占比逐步提高。以新产品、新 业态、新技术、新服务为代表的四大类型新消费迅速崛起。" 四大类新消费究竟是什么？据介绍，新产品有盲盒、潮玩等；新业态有硬折扣超市、城市奥莱、会员店 等；新技术指的是技术进步带来全新消费产品，典型如人工智能(AI)浪潮下的自动驾驶、智能穿戴、机 器 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its performance, particularly in relation to Southbound capital flows and the differences in financial reporting between Hong Kong and A-shares [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Increased Southbound Capital Allocation**: Southbound capital's allocation to Hong Kong stocks has significantly increased, rising from 14.5% in Q4 2024 to 19.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a growing interest in the Hong Kong market [2]. - **Complexity in Financial Reporting**: The differences in fiscal year reporting and the non-mandatory nature of quarterly reports in Hong Kong complicate performance analysis. Companies can choose their fiscal year start date, leading to inconsistencies [3][4]. - **Performance of Hong Kong Stock Connect**: In 2024, the overall profitability of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks outperformed A-shares, with revenue growth of 2.4% and profit growth of 7.4%, indicating strong growth potential [1][6]. - **Weak Capital Expenditure**: Hong Kong companies experienced a significant negative growth in capital expenditure compared to 2023, reflecting a weak overall expansion sentiment in China, which may limit future profitability [1][8]. - **Promising Sectors**: The financial, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and pharmaceutical sectors showed strong growth potential, with notable contributions to net profit margins and asset turnover [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Leading Companies**: The concentration of leading companies in Hong Kong significantly affects performance analysis. For instance, Tencent contributed nearly 25% to year-on-year performance growth, while Vanke negatively impacted results by about 20% [10]. - **Sector Performance**: Key sectors showing improvement in both revenue and profit growth include TMT, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors performed poorly [9][11]. - **Public Fund Holdings**: In Q1 2025, public funds increased their holdings in sectors such as retail (Alibaba), electronics (SMIC, Xiaomi), media (Tencent), pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals (Zijin Mining), indicating institutional confidence in these areas [12]. This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the Hong Kong stock market and the implications for investors.

Group 1: Consumption Strategy and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth new consumption sectors, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional companies transitioning to new consumption [3][13] - High-growth new consumption opportunities include new tobacco products, beauty care, trendy toys, pet products, and tea beverages [3][13] - Dividend defensive stocks are prioritized due to unclear policy signals and ongoing domestic demand impacts, with a focus on white goods [3][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Midstream Consumption Tracking - In April, the domestic CPI remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.5% [4][14] - April's export growth reached 8.1% year-on-year, marking the highest since 2022, although it showed signs of slowing due to a decrease in home appliance exports [4][16] Group 3: Home Appliances - In April, the overall retail sales of home appliances increased by 21.8% online and 18.6% offline, with the national subsidy for 11 major categories growing by 18.2% [7][28] - Specific categories showed varied performance: air conditioners up 34.8%, refrigerators up 1.0%, and washing machines up 10.8% online [7][28][29] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The new tobacco sector is experiencing upward momentum, with clear growth trends in the HNB industry and potential market share gains for companies like Smoore International [7][30] - The trendy toy market remains robust, with GMV growth of 109% in April year-on-year, driven by new company entries and innovative operational strategies [7][30] Group 5: Textile and Apparel - The easing of US tariffs is expected to boost export and domestic demand, with a focus on new consumption and brands with unique advantages [7][33][37] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery in client confidence following tariff reductions, which may lead to increased orders and improved domestic factory utilization [7][37] Group 6: Social Services - The tea beverage sector is benefiting from improved same-store sales and competitive dynamics in the takeaway market, with expectations for further growth [7][35] - Hotel performance showed strong leisure demand during the May holiday, although business travel remains weak [7][35] Group 7: Retail and E-commerce - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market is evolving, with regulatory pressures on major platforms like Meituan and JD, although the overall competition remains intense [7][36] - Meituan's initiatives in instant retail and national subsidies are expected to impact JD's core categories significantly [7][38]

2025 年 05 月 17 日 策略类●证券研究报告 短期继续震荡偏强，科技仍是主线 定期报告 投资要点 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 政策强化股市震荡偏强的趋势 2025.5.7 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 2025.5.5 新股板块震荡难掩局部积极信号，临近休整 尾端关注逐步变盘可能-华金证券新股周报 2025.5.5 加仓汽车、化工、地产，减仓军工、交运 2025.4.30 部 分 周 期 和 消 费 行 业 一 季 报 可 能 偏 好 2025.4.29 定期报告 市场对分子端的担忧可能过于悲观。（1）大幅降低关税可能改善短期经济增长预 期。一是复盘 2018 至 2019 年 4 次中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，可以看到贸易摩擦 缓和有利于改善出口，但 A 股表现更多受国内经济基本面和政策、外部事件等影响。 二是本次超预期的降低关税将大幅改善经济基 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed significant differentiation last week (May 12 to May 16), with large-cap stocks performing well while small-cap and Sci-Tech Innovation Board faced slight pressure. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose by 1.22% and 1.12% respectively, indicating the defensive advantage of undervalued blue-chip stocks. The ChiNext 50 increased by 2.00%, reflecting the attractiveness of large-cap growth sectors. Conversely, the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.10%, possibly due to underwhelming earnings from some semiconductor companies and capital diversion to other tech sectors [2][12]. Industry Performance - Last week, 65% of sectors achieved positive returns, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors performing relatively well, rising by 3.08%, 2.49%, and 2.40% respectively. In contrast, media, defense, and computer sectors showed significant weakness, declining by 0.77%, 1.18%, and 1.26% respectively [2][14]. Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 12 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 24.004 billion units [2][20]. Fund Performance - The Wind China Fund Total Index rose by 0.17% last week. The ordinary equity fund index increased by 0.26%, while the mixed equity fund index rose by 0.30%. The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.05% [3][10]. Global Asset Review - Global markets exhibited significant divergence last week, with equity markets generally rising, driven by technology stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 4.54% and 6.60% respectively, propelled by better-than-expected earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia. European markets also showed resilience, with the German DAX and French CAC both rising over 0.8%, reflecting enhanced economic resilience in the Eurozone. The Hang Seng Index in the Asia-Pacific region rose by 2.09%, influenced by positive signals from US-China trade talks [5][6]. Domestic Bond Market Review - Last week, the 10-year and 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.51% and 1.17% respectively, indicating upward pressure on yields. The short-term funding spread (R007-DR007) showed no significant compression compared to the previous week, while medium to long-term rates remained low [15][19].

Core Insights - The financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 reveal significant fluctuations in A-share performance, with a notable recovery in net profit growth in Q1 2025 after a substantial decline in 2024 [2][6][26] Group 1: Financial Performance Analysis - The net profit growth rate for non-financial A-shares in Q1 2025 was 3.31%, a recovery from a -13.36% decline in 2024 [2][5] - The increase in net profit in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by operating income, which contributed 212.33 billion yuan, and financial investment income, which added 114.01 billion yuan [2][5] - The significant drop in net profit in Q4 2024 was mainly due to a sharp decline in operating income, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 12.42% [3][5] Group 2: Impacts of Impairment Losses - The 2024 annual report indicated a substantial increase in asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses, which significantly pressured net profit [6][9] - Key industries affected by impairment losses included non-ferrous metals, retail, machinery, transportation, and communications [9] Group 3: Value Changes and Government Subsidies - In Q1 2025, fair value changes in financial investments saw a significant increase, contributing to net profit growth [11][14] - Government subsidies related to daily business activities increased, particularly in sectors like real estate, social services, and public infrastructure, with "other income" reaching 889.59 billion yuan [16] Group 4: Industry Performance and Cash Flow - Industries showing significant improvement in operating income in Q1 2025 included steel, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery, with some sectors like agriculture and construction materials also reporting high growth rates [18][19] - Adjusted operating cash flow metrics indicate potential for improved cash generation in sectors such as agriculture, electronics, and household appliances [20][21] Group 5: Strategic Expansion Trends - Strategic expansion activities, including internal capacity expansion and external acquisitions, accelerated in Q1 2025, particularly in the automotive, household appliances, and coal industries [24][25] Group 6: Free Cash Flow and Stakeholder Returns - The ability of companies to generate free cash flow to meet stakeholder demands reached historical highs, with 13.70% of non-financial A-share companies able to cover their obligations [26][27]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌0.52%，A股成交量588.52亿股，成交金额6869.08亿 元，比上一个交易日减少10.25%。个股方面，3300只个股上涨，其中涨停50只，1898只个股下跌，其 中跌停8只。从申万行业来看，汽车、机械设备、传媒等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.96%、1.26%、 0.53%；银行、非银金融、美容护理等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.41%、1.39%、1.28%。（数据宝） | 石油石化 | | | | 茂化实华 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | -1.28 | 74.02 | -13.95 | 芭薇股份 | -12.69 | | 非银金融 | -1.39 | 219.05 | -41.78 | 拉卡拉 | -2.38 | | 银行 | -1.41 | 157.97 | -5.57 | 西安银行 | -2.39 | 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | ...

| 汽车 | 865.97 | -1.96 | -0.23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 934.52 | -2.09 | -0.22 | | 公用事业 | 423.34 | -2.28 | -0.54 | | 电力设备 | 1262.27 | -3.47 | -0.27 | | 计算机 | 1369.11 | -7.89 | -0.57 | | 非银金融 | 1555.22 | -8.19 | -0.52 | | 电子 | 2128.95 | -9.30 | -0.43 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 以幅度进行统计，交通运输行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为338.74亿元，环比增长0.74%，其 次是美容护理、房地产、煤炭行业，环比增幅分别为0.72%、0.50%、0.38%；融资余额环比降幅居前的 行业有家用电器、计算机、公用事业等，最新融资余额分别有252.32亿元、1369.11亿元、423.34亿元， 分别下降0.71%、0.57%、0.54%。（数据宝） 5月15日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资余额 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 15 日 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3403.95 | 0.86 | | 深证成指 | 10354.22 | 0.64 | | 创业板指 | 2083.14 | 1.01 | | 科创 50 | 1013.77 | 0.41 | | 北证 50 | 1420.93 | 1.08 | | 沪深 300 | 3943.21 | 1.21 | 晨会纪要 A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 653884 | 511581 | 12.02 | 1.24 | | 深证成指 | 219938 | 186230 | 20.25 | 2.14 | | 创业板指 | 58598 | 46346 | 27.21 | 3.79 | | 科创 5 ...