晨报 工业硅 工业硅：过剩格局短期难改库存仍处高位，硅价弱势震荡 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货市场弱势运行，受下游需求持续弱影响，市场持续 低迷运行。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 8900-9200 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9800-10100 元/吨。期货端：昨日工业硅主力 2506 合约收盘价格 8320 元，幅度+0.24%，涨 20 元，单日减仓 1216 手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：工业硅市场整体供应宽松，北方厂家有小幅减量，临近丰水期， 北降南增趋势逐渐显现,但受行情价格影响，西南厂家整体开工意愿较弱，供应 端变化不大。受下游需求影响，成交价格有所下探,买方仍占据主导地位,市场 整体成交一般。甘肃产区工业硅开工较稳定，近期受价格影响或有转减产现象 发生。中 ...

工业硅产业日报 2025-05-12 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 滑，海外需求呈现走弱趋势，进一步制约了工业硅需求端的增长。综合来说，供应低位，需求减少，库存 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 维持高位，操作上建议，工业硅主力合约2506，8600附近轻仓做空，止损价格8800，注意操作节奏及风险 控制。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk sentiment has continued to improve due to the progress in Sino-US trade negotiations and the overall easing trend of geopolitical conflicts. However, the substantial impact on the US economy from tariff negotiations requires continuous observation. In the short term, there may be some adjustment space for the premium of precious metals previously brought by safe-haven demand. [2][4] - The Sino-US trade talks have achieved substantial progress, but the copper market still faces challenges such as a decline in processing fees and weakening downstream demand. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. [6][9][10] - Alumina prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Considering the expected oversupply situation, shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [16][18][19] - The Sino-US trade talks' progress may affect aluminum consumption. Although the aluminum inventory is expected to decline in the short term, the overall annual oversupply pressure remains. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. [21][23][24] - Zinc prices may face downward pressure due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the inflow of imported refined zinc, and the gradual accumulation of social inventory. [27][29][30] - Lead prices are expected to remain volatile under the background of the continuous expansion of secondary lead production cuts and the off-season of battery replacement. [33] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro situation. [36][39][40] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, following the trends of nickel prices and the macro sentiment. [42][43] - Industrial silicon supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in May, leading to an oversupply situation. Shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [48][49] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise in the short term due to the strong demand from some crystal pulling factories and the relatively small number of delivery products. A long position in the PS2506 contract and a positive spread strategy of going long on PS2506 and short on PS2507 are recommended. [52][53] - Lithium carbonate prices may rebound due to the easing of Sino-US tariffs, but the overall oversupply situation remains. Holding short positions is recommended. [58][59] - Tin prices are mainly affected by macro factors. In the short term, they are expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the supply situation of tin mines. [64][65] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold initially declined below $3,280 and then rebounded, closing up 0.63% at $3,326.46 per ounce on Friday. However, it gapped down this morning due to the substantial progress in Sino-US economic and trade talks over the weekend. Spot silver closed up 0.84% at $32.72 per ounce on Friday. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.33% at 790.74 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.88% at 8,221 yuan per kilogram. [2] - The US dollar index gave back part of the previous day's gains, closing down 0.3% at 100.339. [2] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury note fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 4.378%. [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar traded sideways, finally closing up 0.07% at 7.2399. [2] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks in Switzerland have achieved substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Trump announced that he will release important content and plans to sign an executive order to reduce drug prices by 30%-80%. [2] - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rate policies. The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with a probability of 82.7% and cut the interest rate by 25 basis points with a probability of 17.3%. In July, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 50.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 8.7%. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts: There were sporadic conflicts between India and Pakistan, but the situation has eased. Putin proposed to restart direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on the 15th, and Zelensky said he would wait for Putin in Turkey. The Ukrainian foreign minister said that Ukraine is ready to unconditionally cease fire for at least 30 days. [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [4] Copper Market Review - The price of LME copper closed at $9,439 on Friday, down $35.5 or 0.37%. [6] - LME inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 191,700 tons on Friday, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,533 short tons to 160,250 short tons. [6] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [6] - In April 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the average from January to April decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. [6][8] - In April 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 438,000 tons, the same as in April 2024. From January to April, the cumulative import was 1.742 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024. [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the substantial progress in Sino-US negotiations, copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [10] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 14 yuan per ton to 2,810 yuan per ton. [12] - The spot prices of alumina in various regions increased to varying degrees. [12] Important Information - As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2%. In April 2025, the weighted average full cost of alumina was 3,211 yuan per ton, a decrease of 81 yuan per ton month-on-month and an increase of 462 yuan per ton year-on-year. The alumina industry had an average loss of 311 yuan per ton, and the loss increased by 266 yuan per ton month-on-month. [13][14] - The third 1-million-ton production line of a large alumina enterprise in Shandong was put into operation in mid-April, and it is expected to produce finished products by the end of the month. The second 1.6-million-ton production line of a large alumina plant in Hebei will produce finished products in late May, and the third 1.6-million-ton production line will be put into operation in early June. [14] - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market experienced a significant price adjustment. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was reduced to $75 per dry ton (CIF), and the price of bulk ore dropped to $76 per dry ton. [14] - Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. [14] - Guinea's transitional president signed two executive orders on May 9, terminating the mining concessions of two foreign mining companies in the country. [15] - On May 9, 2,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shandong at an ex-factory price of 2,900 yuan per ton. [15] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate. If the oversupply situation remains unchanged after a price rebound, shorting is recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [19] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract increased by 70 yuan per ton to 19,655 yuan per ton. [21] - On May 9, the spot prices of A00 aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China were 19,610 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), 19,550 yuan per ton (down 30 yuan), and 19,600 yuan per ton (up 10 yuan), respectively. [21] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [21] - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. [22] - On May 9, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets decreased by 15,000 tons compared with the previous trading day. [22] - In April 2025, China exported 518,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to April, the cumulative export was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 5.7% compared with the same period last year. [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With the overall marginal easing of tariff expectations, attention should be paid to the results of the Sino-US talks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. - Arbitrage: Considering the strong current situation and weak future expectations, a positive spread strategy of going long on the 06 contract and short on the 09 contract is recommended. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [24] Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.66% to $2,655.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai zinc 2506 contract rose 0.04% to 22,260 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1,863 lots to 228,300 lots. [26] - In the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 and 22,955 yuan per ton. Due to the arrival of long-term contracts and the inflow of imported zinc, the spot premium was lowered, but the downstream remained on the sidelines, and the spot trading volume did not improve. [26] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [26] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [26] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Affected by the macro situation, zinc prices may rebound. However, under the bearish fundamental situation, shorting on rallies is still recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [30] Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 1.69% to $1,985.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai lead 2506 contract rose 0.54% to 16,880 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 1,601 lots to 69,600 lots. [32] - In the spot market, the price of SMM1 lead remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The offers of refineries in Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong were at a discount to the SMM1 lead price. As the lead price stabilized, holders increased the discount to sell, and downstream enterprises purchased on dips as needed. The regional trading volume in the spot market improved relatively. [32] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [33] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [33] - An intermediate and large-scale secondary lead refinery in East China stopped production due to raw material shortages and loss pressure, affecting the output by about 200 tons per day. A small secondary lead refinery in East China postponed its restart plan to mid-to-late May due to the poor market trend. [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices are expected to remain volatile. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [33] Nickel Market Review - On Friday, the LME nickel price rose by $275 to $15,850 per ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 642 tons to 197,670 tons, and the LME nickel 0-3 spread was -$183.02 per ton. The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose by 2,540 yuan to 126,200 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 536 lots. [35] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan to 2,300 yuan per ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan per ton, and the premium of electrolytic nickel increased by 150 yuan to 150 yuan per ton. [35] Important Information - Talon Metals discovered a high-grade nickel sample with a nickel content of 12.65% near Tamarack, Minnesota, along with copper, gold, and platinum group metals, marking a significant breakthrough in its exploration for supplying battery-grade nickel to Tesla. [35] - PT QMB New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. restarted, with a current capacity utilization rate of about 70% - 80%. [35] - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [36] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro sentiment. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Consider a double-selling strategy within the range. [40] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2506 contract rose by 55 yuan to 12,775 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 1,721 lots. [42] - In the spot market, the price of cold-rolled stainless steel was between 12,650 and 12,900 yuan per ton, and the price of hot-rolled stainless steel was between 12,500 and 12,600 yuan per ton. [42] Important Information - In April 2025, the total export of stainless steel sheets and finished products from Taiwan, China was 74,500 tons, a decrease of 12.1% month-on-month. [42] - On May 8, Mexico launched an anti-dumping sunset review investigation on stainless steel sinks (weighing no more than 8 kg)原产于 China. [42] - In May, the planned production volume of domestic stainless steel crude steel was 3.619 million tons, a decrease of 78,900 tons or 2.13% month-on-month and an increase of 74,700 tons or 2.11% year-on-year. [42] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term trading should be cautious and wait for opportunities. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [43] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Last week, the main contract of the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 8,205 yuan per ton. [46] - The spot prices of some grades of industrial silicon continued to decline. Due to weak downstream demand and only rigid procurement, manufacturers were forced to lower the spot prices after the decline in the futures prices. [46] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [47] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short after a price rebound, and exit the short position after large-scale production cuts by manufacturers. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider a reverse spread strategy for Si2511 and Si2512. [49] Polysilicon Market Review - Last

工业硅周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 光伏需求下滑，工业硅震荡寻底 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅再度下探，主因中美贸易谈判充满不确定性， 光伏"5.31"前抢装潮临近尾声，工业品市场情绪相对低 迷。供应来看，新疆地区开工率继续回落，西南开工率保 持低位运行，内蒙和甘肃产量小幅回升，供应端整体承压 回落；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场情绪十分悲观头部企业 暂停报价，硅片市场成交尚可但行情持续走弱，光伏电池 出现终端需求萎缩价格存在下探空间，组件分布式和集中 式倒挂现象持续，抢装期临近尾声新订单难以在5.31新规 实施前接入并网，4-5月光伏装机减速几成定局，工业硅 终端消费骤降令市场情绪难以好转，社会库存小幅降至 59.6，而广期所仓单库存仍接近7万手。 王 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain weak in the short - term, ranging from 8,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level due to delivery factors and production cut news. In the short - term, the price fluctuation will intensify, and if the contradiction between "high positions and low warehouse receipts" is not alleviated, a long position can be considered for the 06 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 10,050 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.32% to 8,205 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - In April, due to production cuts by some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, the overall industrial silicon output decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, affected by the resumption of production in the southwest production area during the flat - water period and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the output is expected to increase steadily, but the increase is limited [1]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' operating rates increase and decrease, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock price remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.38% to 37,830 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. The output is expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. Demand - The strong installation period is basically over, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and some component delivery prices are close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - On May 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 596,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 133,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 463,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - On May 6, the Natural Resources Bureau of Wuhai City released the design plan for the first - phase of Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd.'s industrial silicon project. The project investment is 1.495 billion yuan, and the construction scale is a 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project [1].

2025年05月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 工业硅：西南复产，基本面弱势 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单故事 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷，偏弱震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：基本面逻辑或将镍价震荡区间收敛，市场消息扰动盘面情绪。首先，印尼高品位镍矿偏 紧，溢价边际上行 1-2 美金至 26-27 美金/湿吨，同比增加 15-16 美金。同时考虑到补库需求的影响，精 炼镍过剩预期下的短期累库不及预期，库存边际小幅去化，再叠加矿端推升一体化火法成本，镍价下方或 仍有托底。其次，5 月 9 日市场有消 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market bottoming signal for industrial silicon is unclear. Social inventory and the number of warehouse receipts suppress the rebound height, and silicon prices are expected to continue to run sluggishly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Conditions - On May 8, 2025, the industrial silicon spot market was weak. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9000 - 9300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 9900 - 10200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract si2506 was 8315, down 0.36%, with a single - day reduction of 1671 lots, current positions of 181,100 lots, and a trading volume of 16.375 billion yuan. The si2506 showed a "V" - shaped trend on that day [1]. Supply Side - In the southwest region, as the wet season approaches, due to low prices and expanding industry losses, the enthusiasm for enterprise resumption is significantly lower than in previous years, with only partial capacity slowly releasing. In the northwest region, the operating rate remains high, and the supply pressure is not relieved. The current market price has fallen below the cash cost of most factories, the industry's loss - making area has expanded, but due to previous hedging and forward price locking, the production reduction is limited, and the capacity adjustment cycle is lengthened. The de - stocking process is slow. Although the prices of silica and reducing agents in the southwest region have slightly declined, cost support cannot offset the downward pressure on prices [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable, the supply - demand game has deepened, and the mentality of enterprise production reduction is brewing but not yet concentrated. Organic silicon DMC prices are stable, with the market's mainstream opening price at 11500 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Terminal demand is weak, factories frequently reduce production and conduct maintenance. Although the DMC price has a slight rebound, orders are mainly from pre - holiday inventory digestion, and post - holiday market transactions have weakened. Aluminum alloy ingot prices have fallen, the industry's operating rate has been adjusted down, and downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders and have insufficient willingness to stock up after the holiday [1]. Inventory - On May 8, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 68,415 lots, a single - day decrease of 271 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory has been decreasing recently but remains at a high level [1].

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：需求不振去库不佳，硅价加速探底 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 5 月 8 日 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅市场价格继续下跌，目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9000-9300 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9900-10200 元/吨。期货端：工业硅期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8290，-0.96%，延续增仓下跌，单日增仓 3246 手当前持仓为 18.28 万手，成交额为 101.41 亿元。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：北方内蒙古、陕西、宁夏和山东在产硅企，保持当前开工，产量 波动不大，市场价格一直下跌的情况下，硅企亏损加大，生产承压，若行情长 时间延续当前格局，部分硅企存在减产停工计划， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are in a downward trend. The supply in the northwest region remains relatively high, and the demand is weak. The industry is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures price hit a new low, while the spot price remained stable. There is a game between production cuts by polysilicon enterprises to support prices and weak demand. The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit a new low. The main contract 2506 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8290 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 182,782 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on May 8 was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 244 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9900 - 10300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption of organic silicon DMC was stable, with a quotation of 11300 - 11800 yuan/ton. The overall operating capacity of domestic monomers decreased due to the resumption of some plants in East and North China and the maintenance of an 800,000 - ton plant in the northwest [1]. Strategy - The industry's total inventory pressure is relatively high, and the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly. For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 36,670 yuan/ton and closing at 35,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 63,290 lots, and the trading volume was 135,166 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; the price of dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 20.62GW (with a month - on - month change of 5.58%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.29GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - In May, the polysilicon output decreased by about 0.2 million tons month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output decreased by about 4GW month - on - month. Some enterprises have new production capacity investment expectations in May, and the registration of warehouse receipts has started [6]. Strategy - The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games. Investors can choose to build long positions opportunistically. If the rebound is significant, upstream enterprises can sell hedging [7].