Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry have slightly improved, with supply - side reductions by large northwestern plants and lower southwestern start - up rates compared to previous years, and a certain increase in consumption. However, the overall industry inventory level is high, there is hedging pressure after the rebound, and there is a possibility of复产 by short - term shutdown enterprises and during the southwestern wet season, while the terminal consumption has not improved, so the fundamentals are weak. The rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the sharp rise in polysilicon, and whether there will be policy support in the industrial silicon industry needs to be closely monitored. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and short positions need to pay attention to stop - loss or use options for protection [3]. - The polysilicon market has been affected by policy promotion and capital sentiment recently, with both futures and spot quotes rising sharply. Although the current spot has no transactions, actual transactions may occur in the near future. There are many policy disturbances such as anti - involution, storage and mergers, and self - disciplined production cuts in the photovoltaic industry. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions in polysilicon at low prices [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,250 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.74%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 381,237 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 248 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 8,700 - 8,800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,300 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The bottom price of domestic DMC rose slightly to 10,700 yuan/ton this week, and the quoted price of East China monomer enterprises was 10,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week, while other monomer enterprises' quotes rose to around 11,000 yuan/ton, driving a slight increase in the prices of DMC downstream products [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 39,500 yuan/ton and closing at 41,345 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 5.50% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 98,601 lots (97,187 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 1,014,567 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, with the price of re - feeding material at 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material at 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon at 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material at 43.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 41.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.60, a 1.40% increase from the previous period, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous period, the weekly polysilicon output was 22,800.00 tons, a 5.00% decrease from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 11.50GW, a 3.37% decrease from the previous period [5]. - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.15 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term: Pay attention to risks; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [9]. - Medium - to - long - term: Suitable to build long positions at low prices [7].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Polysilicon Industry Industry Overview - The polysilicon price has recently increased by over 10%, primarily due to cost audits in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, but actual transaction volumes remain limited as downstream wafer manufacturers are cautious [1][2] - The average transaction price is around 40 yuan per kilogram, while many polysilicon manufacturers are still operating at a loss [1][4] - The market is expected to see a shift in competitive dynamics by 2025, with major manufacturers adjusting strategies to avoid aggressive competition [3][21] Key Points and Arguments Price Dynamics - Current pricing levels for major polysilicon manufacturers include Tongwei and Daqo at approximately 40 yuan per kilogram, while GCL's granular silicon is priced between 36 to 38 yuan [2] - Despite high market quotes, actual transaction prices are lower, with some quotes exceeding 45 yuan per kilogram [3] - The increase in polysilicon prices has led to a corresponding rise in wafer prices by 11% to 12% [3] Cost Audit Impact - Cost audits may lead manufacturers to price above their cost lines, potentially driving some smaller firms out of the market [5][10] - Large manufacturers like Daqo, New Energy, and Tongwei are better positioned to handle this pricing strategy due to their lower production costs [5][22] Technological Advancements - GCL has made significant breakthroughs in sulfur bed technology, reducing energy consumption and increasing the purity of granular silicon, which poses a competitive threat to traditional rod silicon [6][14] Challenges for Smaller Manufacturers - Second and third-tier manufacturers face significant challenges, with production costs significantly higher than industry benchmarks, leading to potential shutdown risks [7][10] - These manufacturers often resort to low pricing strategies to secure orders, which accelerates cash flow issues [8] Inventory Levels - Polysilicon manufacturers maintain inventories around 400,000 tons, with an increasing trend, while wafer manufacturers have lower inventories that can support production for 15 to 30 days [17][19] - High inventory levels suggest a lower risk of price declines, with polysilicon and wafer segments likely to see price increases first [19][20] Future Market Trends - The market may experience a consolidation of production capacity, especially if cost audits enforce stricter pricing policies [12][13] - The transition from rod silicon to granular silicon is expected to continue, with the price gap narrowing significantly [14] Regulatory Environment - The lack of clear regulations regarding cost audits and pricing strategies poses challenges for the industry, with potential implications for market stability [11][32] - The enforcement of a "no lower than cost" sales policy may lead to significant market changes, particularly affecting smaller manufacturers [12][31] Export Market Challenges - The export market faces challenges due to strict EU regulations on carbon footprints and issues related to products from Xinjiang, impacting competitiveness [30] Other Important Insights - The cancellation of export tax rebates is not expected to significantly impact industry prices, as Chinese components are already sold at low prices [26] - The futures market's stability may encourage manufacturers to engage in hedging activities, particularly among leading firms [27] - The operational feasibility of maintaining production at low-cost manufacturers is contingent on market demand, which is projected to be between 1 million to 1.08 million tons [28]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.43%, the Nasdaq by 0.09%, and the S&P 500 by 0.27%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new closing highs [3] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising by 4.7% and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion [3] - Bitcoin-related stocks saw gains, with Coinbase increasing by over 4% [3] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [3] Pension Adjustment - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced a pension adjustment for retirees starting January 1, 2025, with an overall increase of 2% based on the average monthly pension of retirees by the end of 2024 [4] U.S.-China Economic Relations - The Ministry of Commerce stated that since May, U.S. and Chinese economic teams have maintained close communication to stabilize trade relations, following agreements reached in Geneva and London [5] Industry Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for polysilicon futures contracts starting July 14, 2025 [6] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 135,000 units in early July, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a cumulative retail of 6.583 million units for the year, up 37% [6] Corporate Announcements - Li Ping, Vice Chairman of CATL, donated 4.05 million shares to a foundation, completing the transfer process [9] - Saisir expects a net profit increase of 66.2% to 96.98% for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan [10] - WuXi AppTec anticipates a 44.43% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, estimating around 6.315 billion yuan [10] - iFlytek expects a net loss of 200 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 400 million yuan in the same period last year [11] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation forecasts a net profit increase of 98.25% to 119.49% for the first half of 2025, estimating a profit of 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan [12] - Limin Co., Ltd. announced plans for a share reduction by its controlling shareholder, not exceeding 3% of the company's total shares [13] Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing discussions on self-discipline and supply-side reforms, with expectations for capacity reduction and potential recovery in the industry, although actual improvements depend on the effectiveness of supply-side measures [13] - The upcoming changes to the CIPS rules are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi, benefiting banks' cross-border business expansion [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce indicated a potential meeting with Chinese negotiators in early August, with both sides maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, along with the Ministry of Finance, announced a 2% increase in basic pensions for retirees in 2025 [1] - SMM reported that to avoid intensified competition among photovoltaic glass companies, most plan to reduce production starting in July, with an industry initiative aiming for a 30% reduction [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the price fluctuation limits for polysilicon futures contracts to 9% and changes in margin requirements for speculative and hedging trades [1] Group 2 - Sairus expects a net profit increase of 66%-97% year-on-year for the first half of the year [2] - WuXi AppTec anticipates an adjusted net profit of approximately 6.315 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 44% [2] - Forest Packaging, which has seen six consecutive trading limits, clarified that its raw paper products are for industrial packaging and do not involve food packaging [2] - Huaguang Huaneng, also with six consecutive trading limits, stated that it has not found any media reports or market rumors that could significantly impact its stock trading price [2] - Sairus Medical, which has seen five trading limits in eight days, noted that there is significant uncertainty regarding the success of its therapeutic hypertension vaccine project [2]

，对市场价格形成明显压制。短期多晶硅仍处于去库存阶段，今日现货价格抬升15%，带动期货价格继续 免责声明 拉升，短期现货利润已经充分，多晶硅情绪驱动为主，警惕高位换手，不宜过分追高。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 41345 | 2075 8-9月多晶硅价差 | 400 | 155 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 98601 | 1414 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile on July 9, 2025, with the main contract 2509 opening at 8200 yuan/ton and closing at 8140 yuan/ton, a change of -0.67% from the previous settlement price. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, while the price of organic silicon DMC was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the online quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises due to cost support [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon have slightly improved, but without policy support, the price may still weaken. The polycrystalline silicon futures price continued to rise on July 9, 2025, and the spot price remained stable. The price increase has been transmitted to the silicon wafer segment, and the progress and implementation of policies need to be monitored [1][3][6]. Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 8200 yuan/ton and closed at 8140 yuan/ton, a change of -55 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract was 399029 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50792 lots, a change of -285 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. The online DMC quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises was raised to 10700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous level, mainly due to cost support [1]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polycrystalline silicon futures opened at 38480 yuan/ton and closed at 39270 yuan/ton, a change of 5.03% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 97187 lots (110547 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 794464 lots [3]. - **Spot**: The spot price of polycrystalline silicon remained stable. The prices of re - feeding materials, dense materials, cauliflower materials, granular silicon, N - type materials, and N - type granular silicon were within certain ranges, with slight increases in N - type materials and N - type granular silicon [3]. - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polycrystalline silicon manufacturers increased slightly, with a 0.74% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% month - on - month. The weekly production of polycrystalline silicon was 24000 tons, a 1.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW, a - 11.46% month - on - month change [3]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type silicon wafers increased significantly on the afternoon of July 9, with an average increase of 0.1 - 0.15 yuan/piece [3][5]. - **Battery Cells**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable [5]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained stable [5]. Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Mainly use range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [2]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies are recommended [2]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies are recommended [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: Domestic policies focus on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, which may boost the new energy growth sector in the short term. The market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but may suppress trade - dependent sectors in the long run. Stock index futures are expected to show an upward trend in the medium term but are subject to policy implementation and external risks [2]. - **Crude Oil**: The low dollar index supports oil prices, but factors like reduced July rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase may keep prices oscillating in the short term. WTI is expected to rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. - **Gold**: Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data have cooled expectations of an early Fed rate cut. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows. If gold fails to return above $3300 per ounce, it may test June lows [4][6]. - **Silver**: Strong US employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns have influenced the market. The supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention should be paid to the $36.5 per ounce support level [7]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Demand is sluggish, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance with emerging inventory pressure. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $4200 per ton support level [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals have not improved significantly, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11]. - **PP**: With no obvious fundamental drivers, prices will follow market sentiment in the short term [12][13]. - **Plastic**: The fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market has limited new drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range in the short term [15]. - **Glass**: Market fundamentals have limited drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [16]. - **Rubber**: The supply is abundant due to good weather in major producing areas. The demand from the tire industry is weak. The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak supply - demand balance. Port inventory accumulation and weak demand may suppress price increases. Prices will oscillate in a range in the short term [19]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The USDA report has limited positive impact. The domestic market is in a transition period, and prices are oscillating downward due to factors like wheat substitution. The futures price may test the $2300 per ton support level [20][21]. - **Peanut**: The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Cotton**: The US production forecast is revised downward, and the domestic supply is expected to be abundant. The price will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $14000 per ton pressure level [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to high uncertainty in the market. Terminal consumption needs continuous attention [24]. - **Egg**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are the main drivers. Supply pressure is high, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Metals**: - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonal factors pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, while conservative investors should wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, and the 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. The 2511 contract will oscillate in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, and prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $40,000 per ton pressure level [35]. - **Black Metals**: - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. A short - term long - bias strategy can be adopted [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. The main contract will oscillate in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, and the coke main contract may be strong. Attention should be paid to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution, which may boost new energy stocks. Market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but affects trade - dependent sectors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in the medium term but are subject to risks [2]. Crude Oil - Low dollar index supports prices, but reduced rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase limit upward movement. WTI may rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. Gold - Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data cool rate - cut expectations. Gold ETFs have large inflows. Gold price may test June lows if it fails to return above $3300 per ounce [4][6]. Silver - Strong employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns affect the market. Supply - demand gap in 2025, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention to $36.5 per ounce support [7]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, supply increases, and demand is sluggish [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Tight supply - demand balance with inventory pressure. Weak in the short term, attention to $4200 per ton support [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals unchanged, prices follow market sentiment [10][11]. - **PP**: No fundamental drivers, prices follow market sentiment [12][13]. - **Plastic**: No improvement in fundamentals, prices follow market sentiment [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Limited new drivers, prices oscillate in the bottom range [15]. - **Glass**: Limited drivers, prices oscillate widely [16]. Rubber - Supply is abundant due to good weather, demand from the tire industry is weak. Market oscillates, attention to downstream start - up rate [17][18]. Methanol - Supply - demand balance is weak. Port inventory and weak demand suppress prices. Prices oscillate in a range [19]. Agricultural Products - **Corn**: USDA report has limited impact. Domestic market in transition, prices down due to substitution. Futures may test $2300 per ton support [20][21]. - **Peanut**: Expected increase in planting area pressures far - month prices. Current supply - demand is weak, prices oscillate [22]. - **Cotton**: US production forecast revised down, domestic supply abundant. Prices oscillate, attention to $14000 per ton pressure [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance, high uncertainty, attention to terminal consumption [24]. - **Egg**: Supply sufficient, demand weak. Prices oscillate at a low level, attention to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are drivers. Supply pressure is high, prices may oscillate weakly [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, prices may oscillate weakly [28]. Metals - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonality pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, conservative investors wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. 2511 contract oscillates in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support strengthens, demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure [34]. - **Polysilicon**: Market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, attention to $40,000 per ton pressure [35]. Black Metals - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. Short - term long - bias strategy [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. Main contract oscillates in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, coke main contract may be strong. Attention to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - The fundamentals are expected to weaken. Hold short positions above 14,000 and monitor raw material supply in various producing areas and US tariff changes [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is facing inventory accumulation pressure due to oversupply. Although prices are rising under policy expectations, downstream demand remains weak. It is beneficial for polysilicon - industrial silicon arbitrage and buying stocks of photovoltaic industry chain enterprises, but beware of the impact of high - cost transfer on weak demand [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly supported by production cuts, but in the long term, over - supply pressure may increase. Pay attention to the impact of polysilicon production changes on demand and policy effects [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is in an obvious oversupply situation. Wait for the opportunity to short after the market sentiment fades. Glass has a short - term rebound, but the demand is weak. Wait for more cold - repair actions to bring a real turnaround and currently suggest waiting and seeing [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a period of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some varieties such as Yunnan state - owned standard rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged on July 9 compared to July 8. The full - latex basis and non - standard price difference decreased significantly [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.33%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.53% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased, domestic tire production decreased slightly, and tire exports increased. The import of natural rubber decreased [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased, while the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased on July 9 compared to July 8, with increases of 2.56% and 4.11% respectively [3]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The PS2506 contract price increased by 2.31%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread which decreased by 298.85% [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon production increased. In May, polysilicon imports decreased, exports decreased, and net exports increased. Silicon wafer production decreased in the short term but increased slightly in May [3]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon increased by 1.24%, and the basis of some varieties increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads changed, such as the 2507 - 2508 spread which decreased by 88.00% [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the national industrial silicon production increased, with significant increases in Yunnan and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC production increased, and polysilicon production also increased [4]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased slightly, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in some regions remained unchanged, and the prices of glass futures contracts increased slightly [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Soda ash prices in some regions decreased, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [6]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while float glass daily melting volume increased and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [6]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [6]. Real Estate Data - Real estate new - start area, completion area, and sales area showed positive changes compared to the previous period, while the construction area decreased [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot varieties decreased [8]. Import Cost - The import theoretical cost increased by 4% [8]. Supply - Port shipping volume increased, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [8]. Inventory - National log inventory decreased, and inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [8]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon faces significant pressure, with downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling reduced and demand marginally weakening. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to see a continued decline in overall output, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is still in the de - stocking phase, which may drag down the futures' upward range. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 39,270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 885 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 97,187 lots, a decrease of 13,360 lots. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon is 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 31,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 960 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is 730 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (compact material) is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feed material) is 33 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 4.89 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 21.67, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of July 8, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type compact material, N - type re - feed material, and N - type granular silicon are stable at 31 yuan/kg, 32 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, and on the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, but the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The demand side of polysilicon is under great pressure, and the inventory is at a high level. The polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises has not been fully digested, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is in the de - stocking phase, and the futures' upward range may be affected. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2]

Core Insights - The price range for n-type polysilicon feedstock this week is reported between 34,000 to 38,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 37,100 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.92% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 34,000 to 37,000 CNY per ton, with an average price of 35,600 CNY per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 6.27% [1] - This week, polysilicon prices continued to rise, with the price range increasing to 45,000 to 50,000 CNY per ton [1] Price Adjustments - Polysilicon prices have been significantly adjusted upwards by 25% to 35%, although new order transaction volumes remain limited [1] - The price increase is primarily due to polysilicon companies operating at a loss for over a year, leading to a need to clear inventory and comply with pricing regulations that require sales to be above comprehensive costs [1] Market Dynamics - Despite the price hikes, wafer companies are still adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a lack of large-scale acceptance of price increases in the short term [1] - Although new orders are scarce, the execution of previously signed orders has strengthened due to price increase expectations, contrasting sharply with previous frequent order cancellations [1] - The polysilicon market appears to be stabilizing after hitting a bottom, indicating a potential recovery trend [1]