Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have triggered a risk-off sentiment in global capital markets, impacting the A-share market, which experienced a sudden decline on June 13, 2025 [2][20]. Market Reaction - On June 13, sectors such as oil, gold, and military industries saw gains, disrupting the upward momentum of other sectors like finance, new consumption, gaming, and media [4][10]. - The market's trading tone on the following Monday will depend on whether the conflict escalates or de-escalates, with historical patterns suggesting potential outcomes [4][20]. Historical Context - A comparison is drawn to the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, where the A-share market reacted similarly to geopolitical tensions, with a notable decline followed by a brief recovery [6][8]. - On February 24, 2022, the A-share market saw a significant drop, with the ChiNext index falling by 2.11% as panic set in [6][8]. Sector Performance - In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sectors such as oil service and precious metals initially surged before experiencing a pullback, while military-related sectors peaked and then declined [10][18]. - The data shows that on February 24, 2022, oil service engineering and precious metals sectors rose by 7.13% and 7.06%, respectively, while consumer and technology sectors faced declines [9][11]. Investment Trends - The article identifies three main trends in the A-share market during geopolitical conflicts: 1. Risk-off sentiment leads to capital flowing into defensive sectors like oil, gold, and military [15][16]. 2. A quick rebound occurs within a week as the market digests negative news [17]. 3. Significant sector differentiation, with energy and military sectors performing well while consumer and tech sectors decline due to reduced risk appetite [18][19]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may not replicate the downturn seen in March-April 2022, as the market is expected to return to its original rhythm over time [20][21]. - The upcoming week will see significant economic data releases, including industrial production and fixed asset investment reports, which could influence market sentiment [27][28].

Market Overview - Recent recovery in US stock indices continues since the market bottomed out in early April, with the S&P 500 index rising 2.3% and the Nasdaq 100 index increasing 2.6% over the last 10 trading days [4][5] - Positive US employment data, a decline in inflation rates towards long-term targets, and progress in US-China trade talks have collectively supported the upward trend in the stock market [4][5] Industry Performance - The technology sector has shown strong performance, benefiting from the resilience of the US economy and the recent US-China trade negotiations, which have alleviated some market concerns regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [5][6] - The energy sector has also performed well, driven by rising international oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran [8][11] - Energy prices have been on the rise since April-May, with investors anticipating further increases if conflicts in the Middle East escalate, potentially impacting oil supply routes [8][11] Consumer Sector Challenges - The consumer sector, both essential and discretionary, has faced challenges due to the cost pressures from tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which have affected profit expectations [11][12] - Recent CPI data indicates a slowdown in inflation, with May CPI rising only 0.1% month-over-month, below market expectations, suggesting that consumer companies are hesitant to raise prices due to fears of losing customers [11][12] - The significant increase in customs tariff revenue, which surged 270% to $23 billion in May, reflects the impact of new tariffs, further complicating the outlook for consumer companies [11][12] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The recent decline in inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with some policy flexibility, potentially supporting the stock market [13] - However, the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be fully captured in the current data, and rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions could lead to a rebound in inflation [13] - Investors are encouraged to focus on structural opportunities within the market, particularly in traditional energy and telecommunications sectors, while technology stocks remain attractive due to valuation recovery and stable demand for AI [13]

Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [2] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market patience [2] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [2] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for 2025 is high, with housing sales potentially performing better than expected due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [2] - A recovery in total housing sales to historical reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [2] Strategy - The A-share market is expected to show resilience and growth, with a potential bottom having formed in early April 2025 [7] - The market's upward potential will depend on a comprehensive policy package, particularly fiscal policies, to support the recovery trend [7] - Key investment themes include mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, undervalued quality leaders, refined consumption, and counter-cyclical policy support [7] Macroeconomy - The Chinese economy is experiencing a "quasi-balance" recovery, with GDP growth improving while prices remain weak [15] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to the quasi-balance recovery [15] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards quality and rational consumption, with the Z generation becoming a driving force in the new consumption wave [19]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘微跌，截止到收盘，还在5星。 A股大盘股波动不大，小微盘股下跌多一些。 价值风格相对抗跌。 港股也下跌。 不过港股这段时间比较坚挺。 恒生指数跌幅比A股还小一些。 港股红利类品种比较坚挺，港股红利指数上涨。 港股科技股下跌较多，今天下跌后，港股科技距离低估也很接近了。 今天全球股票市场也出现波动。 原因是地区冲突。 不过这种主要是短期里对投资者情绪产生影响，对上市公司经营影响不大。 后面修复起来时间也短，也不用担心。 1. 我们经常提定投的微笑曲线。 红利、价值等指数波动较小。 在熊市左侧下跌阶段做好定投，可以降低成本；等到市场进入右侧上涨，那不需要回到原来的位置，就可以进入盈利了。 这也是定投的好处。 那这个微笑曲线是咋来的，为何会有左侧下跌，又有右侧上涨？ 2. 这就回到我们经常说的，指数的收益公式。 是指数基金之父约翰·博格提出。 指数净值=估值*盈利+分红。 这里估值在一个区间波动，会有上下的极限。 例如沪深300，历史上最低市盈率8倍上下，最高接近50倍，平时在十几倍居多。 分红看股息率，每年2-3%。 盈利增长是带动指数长期上涨的核心动力。 3. 但 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced steady growth in the first half of the week, followed by an overall adjustment in the latter half, with May CPI showing a month-on-month decline [1] - The three major indices had mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.25% and 0.60% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.22% [1] - Global uncertainty has led to increased interest in defensive assets, with high-dividend assets maintaining significant allocation value [1] ETF Performance - The top-performing ETFs this week included several related to innovative pharmaceuticals, with notable gains exceeding 10% for multiple funds [2] - Conversely, consumption and technology-related ETFs saw significant declines, with the top losers experiencing drops of over 4% [4][5] Investment Trends - China's share of global business development (BD) transactions has surged from 5% in 2021 to 42% by May 2025, indicating a growing international recognition of Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - Major transactions, such as the $60 billion collaboration between Heng Rui Medicine and Hercules, highlight the increasing trend of Chinese companies entering international markets [3] Fund Flows - The ETF market saw a net outflow of 43.36 billion yuan, with a notable preference for conservative investments, particularly in bond ETFs [6][8] - The top inflows were seen in bond ETFs, with the Credit Bond ETF leading with an inflow of over 30 billion yuan [8] Upcoming ETFs - Four new ETFs are set to launch next week, including the Changcheng CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF, which aims to provide a combination of high dividends and low volatility [10] - The Tianhong CSI A500 Enhanced Strategy ETF is also highlighted for its strong historical performance and potential for superior returns through active management [12]

受外围地缘冲突影响，亚太股市普跌，日本、韩国、印度市场均跌近1%，A股三大指数集体调整，截至发稿，沪指、深指、创业板指均跌超 0.6%，全市场超4000只个股下跌。 板块方面，美容、医药、传媒、白酒等跌幅居前，黄金和原油受到以色列和伊朗冲突升级影响大涨。 01 国际原油价格飙涨 原油股拉升 能源股集体爆发，通源石油开盘20%涨停，准油股份一字涨停，潜能恒信等涨停或涨超10%。 消息面，当地时间 12日凌晨，以空军正在对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目标发动空袭，并且将此次行动命名为"狮子的力 量"。以军称，伊朗拥有足够的浓缩铀，可以在几天内制造出多枚炸弹，因此需要采取行动应对这一"迫在眉睫的威胁"。以色列总理表示，以军对 伊朗核设施的军事行动将持续数日，直至消除威胁为止。 此外，美国进入夏季石油需求旺季，原油库存超预期下降。当地时间 11日美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的最新库存数据显示，截至上周末，美国原 油库存4.32亿桶，减少364万桶；库欣地区原油库存2368.3万桶，减少40万桶。 受诸多因素共同影响，布伦特原油和 WTI原油盘中均飙涨超10%，都创3年多来最大单日涨幅。 中信证券表示，近 ...

Group 1 - The 2024 Hong Kong IPO market has significantly recovered, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange returning to the position of the fourth largest fundraising hub globally, raising approximately HKD 87.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89% [8][11][14] - 60% of new stocks recorded price increases on their first trading day, while only 36% faced a decline, indicating profitable opportunities for retail investors [5][8] - The Hang Seng Index ended a four-month decline, reaching a peak of 23,000 points, and recorded a 17.67% annual increase [5][11] Group 2 - The influx of mainland capital into Hong Kong stocks has become a significant source of liquidity, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect trading volume exceeding one-third of the total market [5][11] - In 2024, 281 Hong Kong companies repurchased shares totaling over HKD 265 billion, doubling year-on-year [5][11] - The trend of A-share leading companies preparing for listings in Hong Kong is expected to continue, contributing to a prosperous IPO market in 2025 [6][8] Group 3 - The technology sector has emerged as the leading industry for IPOs in Hong Kong, with 18 companies listed in 2024, reflecting an increase in technological content among new listings [25][29] - Guangdong province has surpassed Shanghai as the top contributor to Hong Kong IPOs, with 18 new listings, while Beijing ranks second with 11 [29][34] - The average time from initial application to official listing has decreased to 382 days, a reduction of 67 days compared to the previous year [56][57]

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，综合基本面、估值、筹码、政策和市场交易特征五要素， 2025年下半年港股投资机会将继续扩散，重点关注以互联网科技、医药为代表的广义成长板块投资机 会，新消费个股中期仍有阿尔法优势，但短期面临性价比不足的问题。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 一问：港股机会只聚焦于龙头吗? 三问：港股盈利周期处在什么位置? 对港股通2024年年报进行业绩分析，港股通行业收入、利润、毛利率TTM、ROETTM在2024年年报均 企稳回升：2024年年报，港股通收入增速为2.4%，环比24H1提升0.8个百分点，归母净利润增速为 7.4%，环比24H1提升7.7个百分点，毛利率TTM为9.3%，环比24H1提升0.1个百分点，ROETTM为 12.4%，环比24H1提升0.3个百分点。对ROE进行杜邦拆分，销售净利率和资产周转率均为正贡献，也 提示港股通业绩回暖来自于量价齐升，盈利能力改善的确定性较高。 四问：港股哪些板块和行业基本面量价齐升? 大类板块来看，2024年年报TMT、医药盈利边际改善明显。TMT和医药板块2024年收入、利润同比增 速环比24H1上升，且ROETTM边际改善明显，销售净 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw mixed performance in ETFs, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) leading gains at 5.57% [1] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (520500) and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) both increased by 5.31% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF (159323) experienced the largest decline at 2.34%, followed by the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513590) down 2.19% and the Hong Kong Automotive ETF (159210) down 2.06% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-shares market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3400 points, and the CSI A500 ETF (159338) rising nearly 1% during active trading [1] Group 1: Index Overview - The CSI A500 Index is constructed using an internationally recognized "industry balanced" approach and is referred to as the "top class" of the A-share market, akin to a domestic "S&P 500" [1] - It selects 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from various industries, representing the core assets of the A-share market [1] - The index includes nearly all leading companies across three levels of industries, achieving a true "gathering of leaders" [1] Group 2: Composition and Growth Potential - The CSI A500 Index comprises approximately 50% traditional value industries (finance, materials, consumer, energy, public utilities) and about 50% emerging growth industries (industrial, information technology, communication services, healthcare) [1] - Although both the CSI A500 and CSI 300 are value indices, the CSI A500 is more growth-oriented, representing growth within value [1] - During market rebounds, the CSI A500 is expected to capture the upward momentum of value stocks while also benefiting from the rebound elasticity of growth stocks [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunity - Investors interested in this segment may consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which ranks first in scale among similar products [1]