Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Cost side: Affected by Trump's tariff exemption news, risk assets in the macro - level have stabilized temporarily, but related negotiations are at a stalemate, and market sentiment is cautious. The fundamentals of crude oil have limited marginal changes, with overall expectations slightly improved and support still existing [6]. - Supply side: Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate decreased. Over the weekend, PTA plants such as Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua restarted. Without new maintenance plans, the PTA operating rate is expected to rise this week [8]. - Production profit: Last week, the PTA production profit declined. Before the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases and there are no obvious positive signs on the demand side, the PTA production profit is unlikely to recover significantly [8]. - Inventory: Last week, the total PTA inventory continued to decline, but the available days of in - factory inventory increased. The raw material inventory of downstream polyester and the warehouse receipt inventory both decreased [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester operating rate remained high, but the average available days of inventory increased, and the average production profit decreased [8]. - Overall logic: The cost - side support from crude oil remains. In terms of PTA supply and demand, supply decreased and demand remained high last week. The fundamentals are good, and the total inventory is continuously decreasing, but the pessimistic sentiment caused by tariffs has led to a decline in PTA processing fees. In the later stage, if there is no new maintenance for the restarted PTA plants last week, the operating rate will rise this week. Although the polyester on the demand side is at a seasonal high in operating rate, under the pressure of high inventory, insufficient orders, and compressed profits, the high operating rate is difficult to maintain in the long term. If the PTA operating rate continues to increase, supply and demand may turn weak. However, considering the cost - side support, the short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate. The view is to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the short - term PTA price, with the reference range for the main contract being 4200 - 4500 [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - PTA futures price: Last week, the PTA price fluctuated narrowly and rose, with the highest price reaching 4398 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4218 yuan/ton [15]. - PTA futures trading volume and open interest: Last week, the PTA futures trading volume decreased from 2.1226 million lots to 1.3233 million lots, and the open interest increased from 1.5443 million lots to 1.6102 million lots [20]. Supply - PTA weekly operating rate: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.99% to 76.74%, and the output decreased from 1.3617 million tons to 1.3385 million tons [28]. - PTA restart and maintenance plans: Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua plants restarted over the weekend. Without new maintenance, the operating rate is expected to increase this week. There are also multiple plants with maintenance and restart schedules, such as Hainan Yisheng, Sichuan Energy Investment, etc. [32]. Profit - PTA processing fee: Last week, the PTA spot processing fee decreased from 393.4 yuan/ton to 322.89 yuan/ton, and the average disk processing fee decreased from 392.63 yuan/ton to 338.43 yuan/ton [38]. Inventory - PTA total inventory: The PTA total inventory continued to decline, from 2.7843 million tons to 2.5549 million tons. The available days of in - factory inventory increased from 4.32 days to 4.36 days, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories decreased from 760,600 tons to 701,200 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 810,900 tons to 695,100 tons [47]. Demand - Polyester operating rate and output: Last week, the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased from 91.31% to 91.09%, and the output increased from 1.5506 million tons to 1.5588 million tons [53]. - Polyester inventory and production profit: The average polyester inventory increased from 15.56 days to 16.16 days, and the average production profit decreased from 53.02 yuan/ton to - 8.02 yuan/ton [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On Thursday morning, Hengli Petrochemical announced maintenance plans for two sets of equipment, and crude oil rebounded, causing the PTA price to surge. However, in the afternoon, the downstream terminal's operating rate continued to decline, and confidence was lacking, leading to a subsequent decline in PTA. The comprehensive operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 61%, a 2% decrease from last week, and the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in the sample area of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 73%, a 5% decrease from last week. The terminal continued to reduce the operating rate to control the raw material consumption speed and the rising speed of grey fabric inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Cost Side - In the short term, the impacts of Trump's tariff policy and OPEC+ production cuts have not subsided. In the medium term, the fundamentals of crude oil remain weak. Trump may lower oil prices to curb inflation, and the market may further trade on recession expectations, resulting in a weakening of oil prices in the medium term [2]. - Regarding gasoline and aromatics, the octane spread has rebounded slightly recently, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals of gasoline are still weak. The US has started stocking up on aromatics, but the overall impact is limited. Since March, South Korea's aromatics exports to the US have decreased significantly month - on - month, and the overall support from the cost side is limited [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $170/ton (a $2/ton increase from the previous period) the day before last. Recently, PX maintenance has been gradually implemented. The current PXN valuation is not high, and there is still support at the bottom, but the rebound is limited under the weak gasoline market. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil and the macro - environment [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was 24 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 213 yuan/ton (a 69 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk was 354 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The PTA supply - demand continued to destock, and the basis rebounded. However, with the outflow of warehouse receipts, the liquidity in the spot market was acceptable, and the PTA price mainly fluctuated following the cost side [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 93.3% (a 0.1% increase from the previous period). Recently, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have been continuously decreasing. Due to the high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor order intake, the willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and the filament inventory has accumulated to a high level. After the relaxation of tariffs in other countries, orders from Southeast Asia have resumed shipping, but direct orders to the US are still greatly affected, and the increase in Southeast Asian export - grabbing orders is limited. Recently, bottle - chip factories have restarted in a concentrated manner, the filament load has remained firm, and the short - fiber load has decreased. The polyester operating rate will remain high in the short term and may decline in May [3]. - For PF, the short - fiber spot basis was 330 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PF spot production profit was 334 yuan/ton (a 33 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the PF main contract was 897 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Short - fiber factories have gradually implemented production cuts, but the demand side remains weak. The tariff issue has been postponed, and the market sentiment has gradually stabilized, but the willingness to chase high prices continuously is insufficient. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a significant increase in demand - side export - grabbing orders [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 587 yuan/ton (a 151.10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Since the policy has little impact on the bottle - chip's own demand, the bottle - chip is slightly stronger than the raw material. At the historical low price, downstream customers have increased their replenishment. With Trump's implementation of a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the market sentiment has improved. However, the current bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, and the upside space of the polyester bottle - chip factory's processing range is limited. The market price is expected to still fluctuate following the raw material cost [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautious about short - selling and hedging PX/PTA/PF/PR at high prices [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Cross - period: None [4].

期货研究报告|甲醇周报 2025-04-13 关税政策扰动，甲醇底部震荡 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 甲醇观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 卓创甲醇开工率 74%（+1.15%），西北开工率 81.63%（+0.85%）。国内开工率逐步提升到 中位水平。联泓化学 46+46 万吨/年煤制甲醇装置于 4 月 7 日起停车检修，为期时间待 定；兖矿国宏 64 万吨/年煤制甲醇装置双炉运行；内蒙古荣信该厂 ...