Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton). The US government lifted restrictions on exporting ethane to China, causing EG to open lower and then fluctuate. The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton). The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, showing a benign de - stocking in the short - term, but the market's transferable spot will increase after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. In early July, foreign ships will arrive intensively. On the demand side, the current demand is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand side is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2] Inventory Data - The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term weak performance under increasing supply and decreasing demand, but limited downside space [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Due to power issues, four sets of Saudi Arabian devices had a large - scale short - stop, with a total capacity of 2.15 million tons, and are expected to resume operation within 1 - 2 weeks. Affected by this news, EG prices rose in the late trading session [1] - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign inventory reduction. However, after the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented to a certain extent. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas devices are gradually restarting, and foreign ships will arrive in a concentrated manner at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the beginning of July, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the text Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cost side is affected by the intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. If the conflict escalates and affects energy facilities or the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may face further upward risks; if the situation is controlled and parties seek peace talks, the geopolitical premium may decline again [1]. - In the gasoline and aromatics sectors, the gasoline crack spread in the US has retraced again. With the substitution of new energy, the upside potential for gasoline crack spreads is limited, and the blending demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [1]. - For PX, the short - term unilateral trend of PX/PTA/PF/PR is bullish under the Israel - Iran conflict, but if the conflict eases, prices may fall. The supply - demand situation of PX remains tight due to unplanned overseas plant shutdowns, while the tightness of PTA's spot market liquidity has eased [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price and Spread - The report analyzes the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as various processing fees and profit margins such as PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, short - fiber profits, and bottle - chip processing fees [8][9]. 2. PX and PTA Supply - This week, China's PX operating rate was 85.6% (down 0.2% week - on - week), and Asia's was 74.3% (down 1.3% week - on - week). Domestic PX load was basically stable, while overseas facilities had more changes. The Israel - Iran conflict led to the shutdown of PX plants in Iran and Israel, and the restart of Saudi Arabia's Rabigh aromatics plant was postponed. Several domestic PX plants are planned for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of goods [2]. - China's PTA operating rate was 79.1% (down 3.5% week - on - week), and the PTA spot processing fee was 412 yuan/ton (compared to 42 yuan last week). Some PTA plants reduced their loads or shut down as planned, and the tightness of the spot market's liquidity has eased [2]. 3. Inventory - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts and forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [8][9]. 4. Demand - This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 65.0% (down 2.0% week - on - week), and the polyester operating rate was 92.0% (up 1.1% week - on - week). Domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season, with terminal orders and operations showing a downward trend, but polyester has performed relatively well. After the raw material prices rose, there was a concentrated restocking, and the inventory of filament decreased. However, at high prices, the inventory pressure may increase [3]. 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate was 95.1% (up 3.0% week - on - week), the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories were 12.1 days (up 0.6 days week - on - week), and the inventory of 1.4D polyester staple fiber increased. Affected by the Israel - Iran situation, the price of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuated upwards, but the increase was less than that of raw materials, and the processing margin was slightly compressed [3]. 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) was 80.7% (up 0.9%), the bottle - chip factory inventory was 17.4 days (up 1.9 days week - on - week), and the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 186 yuan/ton (down 129 yuan from last week). The overall transaction in the polyester bottle - chip market was average this week. Although some overseas customers made supplementary purchases, the processing fee is still under pressure in the short term. Major manufacturers have announced maintenance plans, which will have a greater impact on the bottle - chip load [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) has increased due to more EG plant shutdowns in Iran and the upward movement of crude oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts. The EG futures and spot prices have both risen, with the main contract closing at 4400 yuan/ton (+0.59% from the previous trading day) and the East China spot price at 4470 yuan/ton (+0.74% from the previous trading day). The cost - push effect on EG is significant, and the EG market has shown an upward trend. The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), while that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] - In terms of inventory, different data sources show a decline in EG inventory at the East China main ports. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm under the influence of Iranian plant shutdowns. [2] - Regarding the overall supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic supply will gradually recover in June, with a low overall load and a positive de - stocking situation. Overseas supply is affected by the Iranian plant shutdowns due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, there are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, resulting in weak demand expectations. [2] - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, with a focus on the further evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading. [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton, +0.59% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot price was 4470 yuan/ton (+33 yuan/ton, +0.74% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 85 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the text other than the mention of the chart "Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR". [19] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - There are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, indicating weak demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the polyester production reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large EG plants. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the EG inventory at the East China main ports was 61.6 million tons (down 1.8 million tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 million tons (down 3.4 million tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). Due to the Israel-Iran conflict, two EG plants in Iran with a total capacity of 950,000 tons unexpectedly shut down, leading to an increase in EG prices on Monday. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The inventory data from different sources showed a decline, and the port inventory was expected to be stable. The supply in June in China was gradually recovering, and the overall load was not high. Overseas supply was affected by the situation in Iran. The demand decreased due to polyester production cuts [1][2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term strategy for a single position is bullish, and attention should be paid to the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 86 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The report also mentioned relevant profit data for other production methods and the overall and syngas - based operating rates of EG [1][10]. International Spread - The report presented the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It covered the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips [21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 564,000 tons (down 34,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, and the planned arrivals this week were 100,000 tons. The port inventory was expected to be stable [2].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡，收盘价 59883.02 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨，均价 6.07 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨；工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨，均价 5.91 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续，五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高，预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升，中期供应减弱，据 Mysteel，近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂， 检修时长 4 个月，预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨，供给预计下降，缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化，在关税豁免 90 天内，利好储能电池出口 预期，缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况，但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term geopolitical disturbances in the oil market are frequent, with significant uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran situations. In the short term, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, with Brent ranging from $60 to $70 per barrel. In the long term, if the price remains low in the second quarter and the hurricane season in the US in the third quarter is stronger than average, there is a driving force for the oil price to rebound [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively strong among oil products. With limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic, and the BU main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3400 - 3600 [5]. - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation due to increased supply and weak demand [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - month crack spread and monthly spread are at a high level, and the spot premium has started to rebound. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply continues to increase while the downstream demand is still weak [9]. - The natural gas price is expected to rebound due to increased demand intensity. In Europe, the gas price is supported by maintenance work, and the storage level is lower than last year [12][13]. - The PX market has an expected increase in supply, and the downstream PTA supply is also expected to rise, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the PX market is expected to be in a high - level shock [15]. - The PTA market has an expected increase in supply, a weakening export expectation, and a planned reduction in polyester production. The supply - demand relationship is weakening, and the processing fee may be compressed, with a high - level shock expected [18]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a tight - balance pattern in June, with a high - level shock in price [20]. - The short - fiber market has a limited supply loss, and the downstream has a pre - holiday restocking expectation, with a strong support for the processing fee, and a high - level shock is expected [21]. - The bottle - chip market has a gradually abundant supply and weak downstream receiving willingness, and the processing fee may be suppressed, with a shock consolidation expected [22]. - The styrene market has an expected increase in supply and a low - level increase in port inventory, with a weakening supply - demand relationship and a shock - weakening trend [24]. - The plastic and PP markets are weak in the short and medium term due to new production capacity and weak downstream demand [27]. - The PVC market is in a long - term supply - demand surplus pattern, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The caustic soda market is short - term stable, but the medium - term direction is bearish [30][31]. - The soda ash market has an expected increase in supply, weak demand in the medium term, and a bearish trend with a slow decline [33][34]. - The glass market is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [36][37]. - The urea market has a large domestic supply and weak demand, and the short - term futures and spot are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the factory's order - receiving situation [38][39]. - The methanol market has a large supply and stable downstream demand, with a port inventory increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [42][43]. - The corrugated paper and box - board paper markets have an increase in downstream replenishment enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, and there is over - capacity pressure on small and medium - sized paper enterprises [44]. - The offset paper market has a stable supply and weak demand, and the price increase is difficult to transmit [46]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - The pulp market has a complex influencing factor situation, and it is recommended to wait and see for the SP main contract [52]. - The natural rubber market has a decline in production and consumption in April, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to hold short positions for the RU main contract and try long positions for the NR main contract [54][55]. - The butadiene rubber market has an increase in inventory and a bearish factor for the BR main contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [58]. Grouped by Industry Oil - **Market Review** - NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, Brent2507 contract was at $64.74, down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. China INE crude futures main contract 2507 rose 1.7 to 456.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 455.9 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related Information** - As of the week ending May 20, the net long positions of traders in US light crude and Brent crude futures and options decreased by 631 lots, equivalent to a reduction of 631,000 barrels of crude oil [1]. - Eight OPEC+ countries that promised additional voluntary oil production cuts will hold a meeting on May 31 to decide on July's production [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term shock, medium - term weak [3]. - Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking weakens, diesel cracking weakens [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review** - BU2507 closed at 3507 points at night (- 0.23%), BU2509 closed at 3461 points at night (- 0.20%) [4]. - On May 26, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was 3450 - 3800 yuan/ton, in East China was 3520 - 3590 yuan/ton, and in South China was 3380 - 3500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Related Information** - At the end of the month, with the reduction of some expired contracts, the quotation of individual brands increased slightly. The demand in the north was stable, and the supply increased slightly. The demand in the south was affected by rainfall [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [5]. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review** - PG2507 closed at 4075 (+ 0.27%) at night, PG2508 closed at 4004 (+ 0.18%) at night [6]. - The spot price of domestic liquefied gas in South China was 4770 - 4880 yuan/ton, and the imported gas was 4820 - 5000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Related Information** - The South China market was stable, and the Shandong market had a small increase. The East China market was mainly stable [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Not clearly mentioned in the report. Fuel Oil - **Market Review** - FU07 contract closed at 2976 (- 0.73%) at night, LU07 closed at 3501 (- 0.26%) at night [9]. - In the Singapore paper - trading market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread decreased from 17.5 to 16.5 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread increased from 8.5 to 8.8 dollars/ton [9]. - **Related Information** - The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil market eased, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to rise. The fuel oil cracking spread in Asia decreased last week [9]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see [10]. - Arbitrage: LU7 - 8 reverse arbitrage should stop profit at a low level [12]. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. Natural Gas - **Market Review** - On Friday, the HH contract closed at 3.344 (+ 0%), the TTF closed at 37.253 (+ 2.2%), and the JKM closed at 12.585 (+ 0%) [12]. - **Related Information** - Last week, the US natural gas inventory increased by 120 bcf, higher than expected. The US natural gas production increased slightly to 106.1 bcf/d [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - HH unilateral: Buy on dips. TTF unilateral: Shock - strengthening [14]. - Arbitrage: Not clearly mentioned in the report. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. PX - **Market Review** - The PX2509 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 0.33%) during the day and 6604 (- 1.05%) at night [14]. - The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at $560/ton CFR. The PX price rose to $834/ton [14]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. An East - China PX plant's disproportionation unit restarted, and a 70 - million - ton PX unit in the Northeast was restarting [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [16]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [16]. - Options: Double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review** - The TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+ 0.17%) during the day and 4690 (- 0.72%) at night [16]. - The spot price of PTA in May was at a premium of 165 - 170 over the September contract [16]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. A 100 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China restarted [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [18]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [18]. - Options: Double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review** - The EG2509 main contract closed at 4393 (- 0.23%) during the day and 4357 (- 0.82%) at night [18]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol was at a premium of 136 - 142 yuan/ton over the September contract [19]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The inventory of ethylene glycol in East - China main ports decreased by 5.6 million tons [19]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [20]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Sell call options [20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review** - The PF2507 main contract closed at 6430 (- 0.31%) during the day and 6394 (- 0.56%) at night [20]. - The price of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber in Fujian was stable, and the downstream purchased on demand [20]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The average production and sales of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber were 45% [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [21]. - Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review** - The PR2507 main contract closed at 6006 (+ 0.30%) during the day and 5976 (- 0.50%) at night [22]. - The trading volume of the polyester bottle - chip market was light [22]. - **Related Information** - The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, and a 20 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East - China stopped for maintenance [22]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock consolidation [23]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [23]. - Options: Sell call options [23]. Styrene - **Market Review** - The EB2507 main contract closed at 7195 (- 1.18%) during the day and 7110 (- 1.18%) at night [23]. - The price of styrene in Jiangsu in May was 7725 - 7800 yuan/ton [23]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the styrene inventory in East - China main ports increased by 2.25 million tons to 7.46 million tons. A 40 - million - ton styrene unit of Hanwha Total was shut down, and a 65 - million - ton unit was shut down due to a fault [24]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock - weakening [25]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [25]. - Options: Sell call options [25]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review** - The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, and that of PP in North China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton [25]. - **Related Information** - The PE maintenance ratio was 21.8%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 18.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Weak in the short and medium term, hold short positions [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review** - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong increased slightly [27]. - **Related Information** - Shandong alumina manufacturers increased the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda. The price of some caustic soda products of Jinling changed [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: PVC holds short positions, caustic soda is short - term stable and medium - term bearish [32]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [32]. - Options: Wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review** - The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1254 yuan/ton during the day and 1239 yuan at night [32]. - The spot price of soda ash in Shahe was 1250 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 7.45 million tons to 160.23 million tons [33]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Bearish, slow decline [35]. - Arbitrage: Short soda ash and long glass [35]. - Options: Wait and see [35]. Glass - **Market Review** - The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton during the day and 1016 yuan/ton at night [35]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton [35]. - **Related Information** - A production line in Shahe was restarted. The market in East China was weak, and the price in Central China was mostly stable [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Price shock - weakening [38]. - Arbitrage: Long glass and short soda ash [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38]. Urea - **Market Review** - The urea futures closed at 1816 (- 1.14%). The spot price of urea decreased [38]. - **Related Information** - On May 26, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.68 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons. The current inventory increased from 80 million tons to 91 million tons [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term weak [40]. - Arbitrage: 91 positive arbitrage should be deployed at a low level [40]. -

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, global pure benzene consumption exceeded 65 million tons per year, with China being the largest consumer and importer, consuming over 25 million tons and having almost no exports [1]. - The five major downstream products of pure benzene (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid) account for about 95% of domestic benzene demand [1]. - Over the past five years, the consumption of pure benzene by the five major downstream industries has increased, mainly driven by the expansion of downstream product capacities [3]. - Globally, Western Europe, China, and the United States are the main importers of pure benzene, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - South Korea is the world's largest exporter of pure benzene, with its exports to China and the United States increasing significantly in recent years [9]. - China's pure benzene imports have been rising year - by - year due to strong downstream demand, and South Korea is the largest source of imports [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Consumption 1.1 Domestic Pure Benzene Consumption by Downstream Industry Distribution - Styrene is the main downstream product of pure benzene, consuming over 12 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 40% of domestic pure benzene consumption [1]. - Caprolactam and phenol together consumed about 10 million tons of benzene in 2024, aniline about 3.5 million tons, and adipic acid less than 2 million tons [1]. - The consumption growth of the five major downstream industries in the past five years was driven by capacity expansion, such as the growth of styrene and phenol capacities and the expansion of caprolactam capacity due to increased demand in related industries [3]. 1.2 Pure Benzene Consumption by Regional Distribution - East China is the largest domestic pure benzene consumption market, with a demand share of nearly 60% in 2024 and showing high - speed growth [5]. - North China, Northeast China, and South China had similar consumption volumes of about 2.5 million tons in 2024, and South China had a relatively fast consumption growth rate in the past five years due to the growth of local styrene capacity [5]. - The total benzene consumption in other domestic regions was about 3 million tons in 2024 [5]. 2. Pure Benzene Trade Pattern 2.1 Pure Benzene International Trade - Western Europe, China, and the United States are major importers, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - The most active trade areas are Asian countries' exports to China and the pure benzene arbitrage between South Korea and the United States [7]. - South Korea's pure benzene exports increased significantly in recent years, reaching 3.38 million tons in 2024, mainly to China and the United States, accounting for over 90% of its total exports [9]. - China's pure benzene imports reached a new high in 2024, with South Korea being the largest source, accounting for half of the total imports [11]. 2.2 Pure Benzene Domestic Trade Pattern and Flow - Northeast and Northwest China produce a large amount of by - product pure benzene but have relatively low downstream consumption, resulting in a net outflow of about 2 million tons in 2024 [13]. - East China has a large supply gap of about 6.5 million tons in 2024, with about 3.5 million tons met by imports [13]. - Shandong and Fujian need to transfer more pure benzene from other regions due to the large - scale commissioning of downstream refining and chemical facilities [13]. - In general, pure benzene flows from the Northwest to East and Southwest China, from the Northeast and North China to East China, and some imported goods in East and South China flow to the inland [13]. 2.3 Pure Benzene Domestic Logistics - Domestic pure benzene is mainly transported by road and water, with a small amount by pipeline and railway, and the transportation policy is relatively stable with mature routes [15]. - Road transportation is mainly used for cross - regional circulation in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui, with relatively large cost fluctuations [15]. - Sea transportation is mainly used in Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, with fixed routes and relatively stable costs [15].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The short - term macro atmosphere has improved, and due to device maintenance disturbances, the futures market has rapidly recovered upwards. The future market trend depends on two aspects: whether there will be a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there will be new export orders for textile and clothing (end - products of caprolactam) and white goods (end - products of styrene); also, whether the gasoline - blending demand in the US will improve and whether the shutdown and production cuts of its disproportionation devices will divert China's pure benzene import sources, leading to a reduction in the supply of the domestic pure benzene market [3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7100 - 7700 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.25% and a historical percentile of 93.8% over three years [2]. - For inventory management when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2506, sell, 25%, entry range: 7550 - 7650) to lock in profits and sell call options (EB2506C7800, sell, 50%, entry range: 80 - 140) to reduce costs [2]. - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2506, buy, 50%, entry range: 7450 - 7550) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (EB2506P7000, sell, 75%, entry range: 10 - 30) [2]. Core Contradictions - The future market trend needs to focus on whether there is a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there are new export orders for related end - products; also, the improvement of US gasoline - blending demand and the impact of its device shutdowns on China's pure benzene imports [3]. Bullish Factors - As of May 12, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.67 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons (-17.23%) from the previous period, with continued destocking and tightening of spot liquidity [4]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks progressed smoothly, with a larger - than - expected tariff reduction after the first round of consultations, leading to a rebound in pure benzene and styrene spot prices and increased trading volume [4]. - There were rumors that Hengli's cracking device had a sudden failure, causing its 720,000 - ton styrene device to be overhauled one month earlier, which would intensify the shortage of styrene if true [4]. Bearish Factors - A large amount of European pure benzene is expected to arrive in Northeast Asia from late May, and the import volume of pure benzene is expected to remain high from May to June [5]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, with many device overhauls planned in downstream caprolactam and aniline in May, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [5]. - The invisible inventory in the benzene industry chain continues to accumulate, and the finished - product inventory in the 3S segment remains high [5][7]. Price Changes - On May 13, 2025, the prices of pure benzene and styrene in various markets generally increased compared with the previous day. For example, the price of pure benzene in the East China market increased by 75 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene in the East China market increased by 305 yuan/ton [8][9]. - The basis of styrene in different periods also changed. For example, the basis of East China - EB05 decreased by 307 yuan, while the basis of East China - EB06 increased by 75 yuan [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PTA industry is short - term bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [2][15] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended for low - position long positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4390, the highest was 4590, the lowest was 4328, and the closing price was 4582, with a weekly increase of 148 or 3.34% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports a Small Rebound in PXN - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. Only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton capacity in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project launch in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The current PXCFR is reported at $777/ton, and PX - N is $223/ton; the PTA in East China is reported at 4720 yuan/ton, and the PTA cash - flow cost is 4354 yuan/ton. The load of the Chinese PX industry increased by 5.6% to 78.6%, and some plants increased their loads due to improved production efficiency. Overseas, South Korea's Daesan Hanwha Total slightly reduced its load in May, and Japan's Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton line of an 880,000 - ton plant unexpectedly shut down for about a month at the end of April [4][6] 2.2 Maintenance Promotes PTA De - stocking - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. In May, due to the still - poor PTA profitability, the maintenance efforts of suppliers were still large. It is estimated that the average monthly load of PTA in May is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by the planned maintenance of some plants, the PTA industry load decreased by 7.4% to 70.3%, reaching a low level in the same period over the years. The domestic PTA weekly output this cycle was 1.2925 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from last week. The current PTA social inventory is about 4.1226 million tons, a decrease of 183,700 tons month - on - month. Whether the terminal demand can achieve a trend - based repair remains to be verified by post - holiday orders, and there is medium - term pressure on the demand side [9][10] 2.3 Polyester Load May Decline - From January to March 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. After the holiday, the polyester load continued to rise to 94.2% (+0.8%). Next week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry is expected to be over 1.57 million tons, a slight increase from this period. As of May 9, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 60.1%, unchanged week - on - week. As of May 9, the grey fabric inventory of East China weaving enterprises was 34.0 days, unchanged week - on - week. Terminal orders are differentiated, the polyester load has increased beyond expectations and may remain high in May. The filament trading volume has declined, and the weighted inventory has started to accumulate. The supply contraction effect caused by the concentrated maintenance of plants continues, and there is a support basis for the short - term polyester industry chain prices, but whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [15]