1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent increase in costs and improved macro - sentiment have driven the rebound of polyolefins, but polyolefins lack self - upward momentum. It is expected that polyolefins will mainly show weak fluctuations in November. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US trade war and anti - involution policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic开工率is around 86.5%, at a neutral level; PP企业开工率is around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. PE下游开工率has increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75%, and PP下游开工率has rebounded by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected, with the downstream purchasing willingness being insufficient [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The futures price has dropped more than the spot price, and the basis has rebounded but is still at a relatively low - neutral level. For PP, the spot price has dropped more than the futures price, and the basis has decreased to a low level, with a relatively lower fluctuation range compared to plastics [14][21]. 3.3 Plastic Production - In September 2025, the PE maintenance volume increased by 16.27% month - on - month to 53.24 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 270.65 million tons. The PE开工率decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 80.43% in September 2025, but recently it has risen to around 86.5% [25][29]. 3.4 PP Production - In September 2025, the PP maintenance volume increased by 15.12% month - on - month to 75.74 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.45% month - on - month to 334.86 million tons. The PP开工率decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 76.32% in September 2025, and recently it has dropped to around 80% [33][37]. 3.5 PE Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PE进口量was 102.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.07%, and the出口量was 9.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.55%. The LLDPE进口利润is in continuous loss, and the import volume is expected to remain low [43]. 3.6 PP Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PP进口量was 29.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.94%, and the出口量was 23.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.97%. The PP拉丝进口 window has been continuously closed, and the net import is expected to decline [49]. 3.7 Polyolefin Downstream - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 5937.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the export amount was 5595.38 billion yuan, with the growth rate rising to 3.90% in September [53]. 3.8 Polyolefin Inventory - During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 27 million tons. As of October 24, it decreased by 4 million tons to 72 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [61]. 3.9 Polyolefin Profit - The profits of coal - based and oil - based PE decreased in August. The coal - based PP process profit has fallen into a loss again, while the loss of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene processes has slightly narrowed [65].

Report Title - The report is titled "PP Weekly Report 20251026: Rebound Window" [2][7] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The contract is pp2601. PP is in the capacity release period, with new installations being put into operation successively and high existing production loads, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it falls short of expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. Under the situation of oversupply, the price center of polypropylene may continue to move downward [6]. - This week, the price of PP has rebounded. On one hand, the previous decline was significant and the trend was smooth. On the other hand, the previous negative factors have eased. The Sino - US trade conflict has eased, and pessimistic sentiment has subsided. In addition, crude oil prices rebounded significantly this week, increasing cost support and driving up chemical products. The Fourth Plenary Session also had a certain emotional guidance. There were limited changes in its own fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products decreased, with some shipping pressure, and the basis strengthened slightly. The basis in East China strengthened by 10 to around - 90 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around - 130 yuan/ton, and strengthened by 20 to around - 80 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis of plastic performed stronger than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional Spread**: The spreads between North China - East China and South China - East China both strengthened [31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The spread between injection molding and drawing decreased further, while the spread between low - melt copolymer and drawing strengthened [32]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PP futures decreased slightly to around - 50. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread declined. Overall, PP has greater supply pressure (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for film has started, and the recovery of PP demand is relatively slow, so the L - PP spread is gradually repairing upwards. At the same time, the cost side of PP (PG, MA) is also under pressure, further strengthening the spread [58]. 2. Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: - Oil - based production maintained a relatively good profit level in recent years. Although the price of Brent crude oil dropped to around $80/barrel this week due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and the resurgence of trade war risks, the oil - based production profit remained stable [64]. - In the medium to long term, the supply of propane in North Asia is expected to be marginally relaxed in Q4, and the PDH - made PP profit improved quarter - on - quarter [64]. - The price of动力煤 continued to rise, but the CTO profit remained high. The price of methanol in the production area was firm under tight supply - demand conditions, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 44.01 million tons. In early 2025, China's PP production capacity was expected to increase by 2.655 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of September 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 4.155 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 11% [92][94][95]. - This week, the PP production was 801,000 tons (- 23,400 tons), and the operating rate was 75.94% (- 2.28%). The supply loss of PP was 246,600 tons, including 182,800 tons of maintenance loss and 63,700 tons of production reduction loss. There were more temporary maintenance plans for production enterprises this week, and the subsequent planned maintenance is also relatively high, and the enterprise's operating enthusiasm is not high, so the maintenance volume may remain at a high level [10]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. Asian prices continued to be weak. The CFR Far East supply was in excess with weak demand, and prices in Southeast Asia were generally falling due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - priced domestic supplies. The supply - demand situation in South Asia was also poor. The spread between CFR China and the outer market rebounded [127][128]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and the counter - offer price is low. The export quotation center of production enterprises has shifted downward, and enterprises are making low - price concessions for transactions. On the import side, although China's price is at a relatively low level globally, the weak external demand has led to a decrease in the ability to accept goods, and more goods are flowing to China [145]. 4. Downstream Profit and Operation - **Downstream Operation**: After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.83%, a decrease of 0.09% quarter - on - quarter. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, with an increase in the use of fertilizer bags in agriculture and the recovery of construction infrastructure driving the demand for woven bags. The operating rate of BOPP increased by 0.48%, while that of CPP decreased by 0.32%. The operating rate of PP pipes decreased by 0.33%, and the operating rate of injection molding increased by 0.13%. In the traditional peak season, demand still has room to rise, but overall performance is relatively weak and difficult to absorb the high supply [148]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 6.787 million tons, with the inventory of two major oil companies increasing by 196,000 tons, coal - chemical industry inventory decreasing by 141,000 tons, PBI inventory decreasing by 85,000 tons, and local refinery inventory increasing by 3,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed of upstream production enterprises was slow, so the production enterprise inventory only decreased slightly this week [212]. - Trader inventory decreased by 225,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. As downstream demand gradually returned to normal, domestic trader inventory decreased, and the allocation of external resources to the domestic market increased [212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: The polyolefin market rebounds driven by crude oil and coking coal, with its trend mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and cost fluctuations. Given many macro - level disturbances and limited supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading recently [7]. - **Long - term**: Despite continuous pressure on the PP supply side due to intensive production, new PP device production is relatively limited in Q1 2026, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. With an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up trend in the long run [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Cost side**: Crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical issues such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies. Coking coal shows a strong upward trend because of supply - side factors like production cuts in some regions and reduced Mongolian coal customs clearance [1]. - **Supply - demand side**: In supply, unexpected PP device shutdowns increase recently, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but the large - scale PP production capacity makes it hard to fundamentally relieve the pressure. In demand, traditional PP downstream shows little change, but downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after continuous price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Near - term strategy review**: A unilateral strategy of buying at low prices was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The predicted monthly price range of polypropylene is 6500 - 7000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.43% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7% [13]. - **Hedging strategy**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short PP futures and sell call options. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy PP futures [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Crude oil rises rapidly due to geopolitical issues; PP production lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng and Zhongjing Petrochemical stop [19]. - **Negative information**: The 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical will start next week; Daxie Petrochemical's old production lines will stop [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session and the results of Sino - US trade policy negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: Since Wednesday, the PP disk rebounds driven by crude oil. This week, the position volume slightly declines, the top five short positions increase significantly, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats slightly increases [22]. - **Basis structure**: The PP disk rises rapidly following crude oil, while the spot price lags, causing the basis to weaken. As of Friday, the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton, the East China basis is - 62 yuan/ton, and the South China basis is - 72 yuan/ton [25]. - **Spread structure**: The spread structure changes little, and the PP 1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to an optimistic macro - expectation [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - PDH devices maintain positive profits, with expected reduced unexpected shutdowns and increased operating rates. The profit of externally purchased propylene recovers, and the situation of suspending PP device sales of propylene is expected to decrease, increasing supply - side pressure and weakening cost support [32]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The follow - up supply - demand pressure is not significant. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in Q4 on the supply side, a high demand growth rate on the demand side (current apparent demand year - on - year growth rate is 11%), and limited PP import volume increase on the import - export side [41]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 75.94% (- 2.28%). Many devices stop unexpectedly this week, resulting in a short - term supply reduction [47]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Side and Deduction - **Import**: Due to weak overseas prices, some low - cost PP sources may enter China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season limit PP exports, but some enterprises increase sales by reducing prices, leading to a surge in export orders this week [52]. 3.5.4 Demand Side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.376% (+ 0.52%). Although traditional PP downstream changes little, downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [59].

Core Viewpoint - Huicheng Environmental Protection (300779) announced that its 200,000 tons/year mixed waste plastic resource utilization project has achieved normal sales of liquefied plastic cracking gas and plastic cracking light oil [1] Group 1: Product Sales - The liquefied plastic cracking gas is being sold to Maohua Shihua (000637) [1] - The plastic cracking light oil is currently being trialed by Fujian United Petrochemical [1] Group 2: Product Quality - Products have passed SGS testing, confirming that the quality meets requirements [1] - The company is actively constructing hydrogenation facilities to enhance product quality due to varying raw material requirements from different customers [1]

Macro Analysis - The core CPI has risen to +1.0% year-on-year, driven by increases in gold prices and durable goods, but overall CPI remains negative due to the drag from pork prices [4] - CPI is expected to turn positive in Q4 as the high base effect from the previous year dissipates [4] - PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed, influenced by the high base effect from last year and the promotion of "anti-involution" [4] - The upward slope of PPI may slow in Q4 due to weakened support from last year's base, increased oil price declines, and obstacles in price transmission from upstream to downstream [4] Credit Market Insights - In September 2025, new RMB loan data indicates a significant increase, with a month-on-month rise from 640 billion to 700 billion yuan, reflecting a robust credit growth trend [5] - The current credit growth shows potential for further acceleration in Q4, indicating a positive outlook for the credit market [5] Company Insights - Zhongyan Co., Ltd. (688716.SH) is a leading player in the domestic PEEK industry, with an annual production capacity of 1,000 tons of PEEK and an additional 5,000 tons of deep-processing products expected to be operational by September 2026 [6] - The company has developed a comprehensive product system with 52 specifications across two major categories and three major brands [6] - Newhan New Materials (301076.SZ) specializes in aromatic ketone products, with a production capacity of 9,800 tons per year by the end of 2024, showcasing significant technological and supply chain advantages [6] - Xiaocaiyuan (0999.HK) is a leading brand in the mass catering sector, focusing on high cost-performance, with plans to accelerate store openings in H2 2025 and potential for improved profit margins through supply chain efficiencies [6]

Core Insights - The company has successfully launched a 200,000 tons per year mixed waste plastic resource utilization project, with initial production outputs including liquefied plastic cracking gas and plastic cracking light oil [2] Group 1: Project Details - The main products from the project are liquefied plastic cracking gas and plastic cracking light oil [2] - The customer for plastic cracking light oil is Fujian United Petrochemical, which is currently testing the product [2] - Liquefied plastic cracking gas is supplied to Litop New Materials and Maohua Shihua [2] Group 2: Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has established deep cooperation with several firms, including Amco, in the areas of raw material supply and chemical recycling products [2] - The company commits to timely information disclosure regarding any new agreements signed in the future [2]

Report Title - "PP Weekly Report 20251012: Supply and Demand Pressure and Cost End Collapse, Polyolefin Prices Decline" [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. PP is in a production capacity release cycle, with new devices being put into operation one after another, and the existing production load is also high, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to digest the high production volume. Under the situation of supply-demand surplus, the price center of PP may continue to move downward [6]. - After the holiday, the PP price gapped down, and the bearish sentiment was further strengthened compared to before the holiday. On one hand, it was due to cost factors, such as the decline in Saudi Arabia's October CP and OPEC's announcement of continued production increase in November, which led to a decline in the cost of crude oil and PS. On the other hand, the fundamental situation remained weak, with a significant accumulation of inventory after the holiday. The demand in the peak season was limited, and the purchasing enthusiasm was poor. Additionally, there was a political risk on Friday, as Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, and tariffs were re - imposed, causing a sharp decline in the price of crude oil in the commodity market and further pressuring the polyolefin price [9]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with high inventory and worried about PP price decline, they can short futures contracts on the disk for the PP to be sold to prevent price decline risks (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options on the disk (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Procurement Management for Traders - To build inventory and seek to buy PP at a low price, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs and prevent price increases (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%) [4]. Procurement and Inventory Management for Terminal Customers - When in need of PP raw materials and worried about price increases, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%); when having raw material inventory and worried about price declines, they can short futures contracts on the disk in proportion (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Market Data Analysis Supply - Domestic production: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10]. - Imports and exports: According to customs data, in August, the PP import volume was 24.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54%, and the export volume was 27.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.67%. China's net PP import was - 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 233.72%. The export volume exceeded the import volume again [10]. Demand - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, supported by the increased demand for fertilizer packaging in agriculture and the resumption of construction in industries such as construction and infrastructure. After the holiday, the demand cooled down, and the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable. The consumption in the automotive and home appliance industries was strong, and with the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38%. Although there is still room for improvement in the traditional peak season, the overall performance is relatively weak and unable to digest the high supply volume [10]. Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, including an accumulation of 4.5 million tons in the inventory of two major oil companies, 7.07 million tons in coal - chemical industry inventory, 0.83 million tons in PBI inventory, and 3.71 million tons in local refinery inventory. During the holiday, upstream trading stagnated, and the inventory accumulated seasonally with a considerable increase, putting significant pressure on the upstream [10][206]. - The inventory of traders increased by 7.39 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons, with an increase in the proportion of foreign resources in the domestic market [209]. Cost - During the holiday, the crude oil price rebounded after a decline and then fell again this week, especially dropping to around $62 per barrel on Friday. The main reasons for the decline during the holiday were OPEC+'s plan to increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November and the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, which alleviated geopolitical concerns. On Friday, Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, reigniting tariff risks and causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices. However, the profit of oil - based PP has remained at a relatively good level in recent years [10][64]. - The LPG price continued to decline, and the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month [11][64]. - After the holiday, the downstream demand for thermal coal was poor, and procurement slowed down. There is a certain downward space for coal prices, and the CT0 profit remained high. Due to the tight supply - demand situation, the price of methanol at the production area was firm, and the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [11][64]. Market Structure Analysis Basis and Spread - Basis: The spot price of plastic standard products also declined, with certain shipment pressure. The basis strengthened slightly compared to before the holiday. The basis in East China strengthened by 30 to around - 100 yuan per ton, the basis in North China strengthened by 50 to around - 130 yuan per ton, and the basis in South China strengthened by 40 to around - 100 yuan per ton [19]. - Non - standard basis: The trend of non - standard basis was stronger than that of standard products [19]. - Regional spread: The North China - East China spread remained at a medium level, and the South China - East China spread further weakened [31]. - Related product spread: The injection molding - drawing spread was at a low level, and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread strengthened [32]. - Disk spread: The 1 - 5 month spread remained at around - 40. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread was relatively stable. Overall, the supply pressure of PP was greater, while there were more maintenance activities for L and the demand for agricultural films started, and the demand recovery of PP was relatively slow, so the L - PP spread gradually repaired upwards. After the holiday, the price of PP dropped more due to the pressure on the cost side of PG, further strengthening the spread [50]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - Production profit: The profit of oil - based PP remained at a relatively good level in recent years; the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month; the profit of CT0 remained high, while the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - Domestic output and load: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10][105]. - Scheduling ratio: The increase in the scheduling ratio of drawing may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [114]. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - US dollar price: The prices in Northwestern Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak, with oversupply and weak demand in the Far East of CRB, and low prices in Southeast Asia due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - cost domestic goods; the supply - demand situation in South Asia is also poor [126]. - Import - export profit: The domestic market is in weak consolidation. Production enterprises' export offers remain stable, but overseas inquiries are few, and the transaction volume is limited. In terms of imports, China's prices are at the "global low point," and it is difficult to open import arbitrage opportunities [144]. Downstream Operating Rate - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, while the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable, and the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38% [10][147]. Position, Trading Volume and Warehouse Receipt Situation - The position volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 658,901, 549,555, and 700,000 respectively [223][224][227]. - The trading volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 1,500,000, 927,840, and 2,781,596 respectively [228][237][235]. - The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on October 10, 2025, was 17,191 [241].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PVC market continued the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under downward pressure. The market lacked obvious support due to high - level supply, accumulated inventory, and the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping policies, resulting in a weak and volatile price trend [2][34]. - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory pressure persists. Prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered after the holiday, it remains weak overall [2][34]. - In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in export policies, especially the final implementation time and intensity of India's anti - dumping duties. The actual impact of the six - department building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan on the PVC industry also needs to be monitored [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PVC futures and spot prices oscillated weakly. As of the night session on October 10, the main PVC futures price was 4,723 yuan/ton, fluctuating slightly compared to the end of September. The trading volume remained at a moderate level of 255,000 lots. From October 9 to 10, the open interest of the PVC2601 contract increased significantly, indicating high hedging pressure [4]. - In the spot market, regional price differences remained stable but showed a downward trend. The prices in different regions were in different ranges, and they briefly increased at the beginning of the month due to futures fluctuations and then declined again at the end of the month due to weak demand. The ethylene - based price was relatively stable, but the trading atmosphere was light [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Capacity and operation: As of October 10, the overall PVC operating load rate was 76.11%, with the calcium carbide - based operating rate at 78.97% and the ethylene - based operating rate at 77.52%. New production capacity was put into operation in September, and the effective domestic calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity increased to 21.465 million tons. Although there were some maintenance activities, the long - term capacity increase offset the short - term reduction, and the supply pressure continued to expand [14]. - Maintenance: After the holiday, some devices were under maintenance, but the overall maintenance intensity was limited and could not alleviate the supply surplus situation [14]. Inventory - As of October 10, the in - factory PVC inventory was 384,000 tons, and the social inventory was 1.036 million tons, both increasing year - on - year. The social inventory had been accumulating for 13 consecutive weeks since early July, and the high inventory was one of the core factors suppressing the market. The inventory pressure was difficult to relieve in the short term [17]. Demand Side - Domestic demand was weak. The real estate market, the core consumption area of PVC, was still in a slump, with significant year - on - year declines in construction area, new construction area, investment, and completion area from January to August 2025. The downstream enterprise operating rates were at a low level, and the demand support was limited [20]. - Export support weakened. Although the export volume in August increased year - on - year, the expected implementation of India's anti - dumping duties and the anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers in September pressured export orders. The "rush - to - export" behavior in the early stage over - drafted demand, and the export rhythm slowed down significantly in September [21]. Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The production cost of PVC mainly consists of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes. The calcium carbide price accounts for over 80% of the calcium carbide - based PVC cost, and coal price fluctuations significantly affect the cost. The overall PVC industry is in a loss state, with a loss of about 750 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based PVC and about 650 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [26]. - Cost trend: In September, the average calcium carbide market price rose sharply, driving up the calcium carbide - based PVC production cost by 2.41% to 5,132 yuan/ton. The ethylene - based cost slightly increased to 5,617 yuan/ton. However, it is expected that the cost support will gradually weaken [27]. - Profit: As of the end of September, the calcium carbide - based PVC gross profit was about - 444 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based gross profit was - 467 yuan/ton. The cost increase and product price decline formed a "scissors gap", suppressing enterprises' production enthusiasm [28][29]. 3. Summary and Outlook - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and inventory pressure persists. Prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered, it is still weak. The implementation of maintenance plans in October is expected to reduce the operating rate, but the supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [34]. - In the long - term, pay attention to changes in export policies and the actual impact of the building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan. - Futures strategy: Given the weak supply - demand pattern of PVC, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities, especially when inventory pressure appears and export expectations weaken. - Spot market: The trading volume remains low, and prices lack obvious support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to supply - side changes and inventory adjustment signals [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The overall inventory is at a high level, while the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4704 - 4766. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors showed mixed trends, with the film and paste resin operating rates being higher than the historical average, while the profiles and pipes operating rates were lower. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand is close to the historical average [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [9]. - **Base Difference**: On October 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86% [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods has strengthened. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [10]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: The report presents the price trends of PVC futures contracts such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as trading volume and open interest trends, including the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [24]. - **Basis Trends**: It shows the historical basis trends of PVC futures, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [37][39]. - **PVC Supply Trends**: - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented, along with the profit trends of the two methods [41][42]. - **Production and Inventory**: Displays the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Demand Trends**: - **Downstream Consumption**: Presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [46][48]. - **Downstream Industry Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Paste Resin**: Displays the gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Presents the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2025 [54][55][58]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of L plastic and PP polypropylene markets are generally weak, with fluctuations affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy. For example, factors like new capacity production, changes in production capacity utilization, and tariff policies all impact the market trends of L and PP [1][5][8]. - The global plastic additive market is on an upward track, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029, which is related to the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. - Various policies and events, such as China's export control of rare earths, US - China tariff disputes, and China's petrochemical industry policies, have certain impacts on the plastic and polypropylene markets [1][6][11]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The prices of L2601 contracts and LLDPE in different regions have shown a downward trend in most cases. For example, on October 13, the L2601 contract closed at 7004 points, down 33 points or 0.47%, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 7000 - 7680 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions falling by 10 - 70 yuan/ton [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contracts and domestic PP market prices have also generally declined. On October 13, the PP2601 contract closed at 6697 points, down 25 points or 0.37%, and the domestic PP market continued to weaken, with a decline of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - **Trade Policy**: On October 9, China legally imposed export controls on some rare earth items, while the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China and upgraded software controls on the 10th, leading to China's strong opposition [1]. - **Industry Policy**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added - value and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [11]. - **Market Forecast**: From 2024 to 2029, the global plastic additive consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, driven by the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. Logical Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: As of last Friday, the new registered L contract warehouse receipts were 66 tons, with a total of 1.28 million tons; the PP contract had no new registered warehouse receipts, with a total of 1.40 million tons. The domestic PE capacity utilization rate increased to 83.9% for 4 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, and the domestic PP capacity utilization rate increased to 77.7% for 3 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2]. - **Cost and Supply**: Brent crude oil rose to $67.6 per barrel in September, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased to 2.827 million tons for 2 consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 16.4%, which is negative for the L - PP spread [12]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: For the L main 01 contract, the strategies include holding long positions, waiting and seeing, or trying long positions at appropriate times. For the PP main 01 contract, strategies include holding short positions, trying short positions, or waiting and seeing [2][6][9]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Hold the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set stop - losses at appropriate positions, or wait and see [2][7][9]. - **Options**: Generally, the strategy is to wait and see [2][7][9].