Core Points - The total margin balance has reached a historical high of 2.5066 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone as it first surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan on October 29, coinciding with the Shanghai Composite Index crossing the 4000-point mark [1][2] - The current market environment is characterized by a more cautious use of leverage compared to 2015, with margin trading activity remaining within a reasonable range [4][5] - The flow of margin funds has shifted significantly towards the technology sector, contrasting with the previous focus on traditional industries such as finance and real estate in 2015 [5][6] Margin Balance and Market Comparison - The margin balance has increased from approximately 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan over nearly seven months, compared to a rapid increase from 1.1 trillion yuan to 1.65 trillion yuan in just two months in 2015 [4] - The current margin balance accounts for 2.53% of the A-share market's circulating market value, lower than the 3.89% seen in 2015, indicating a more prudent approach to leverage [4] - The trading volume of margin transactions represents 12.30% of the total A-share trading volume, significantly below the 17.36% recorded in 2015 [4] Investor Participation and Future Outlook - The number of new margin accounts opened has shown a steady increase, with September recording the highest number of new accounts at 205,400 [6] - As of October 29, the number of individual investors participating in margin trading was 7.7462 million, with institutional investors totaling 50,254 [6] - Analysts suggest that the future growth of margin balances is closely tied to market sentiment, with expectations of continued upward movement if market conditions remain favorable [7] Sector Focus - Recent margin fund inflows have favored sectors such as power equipment, banking, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and technology, while traditional sectors have seen net sell-offs [5] - Specific stocks like Sungrow Power Supply, Newyea, and Industrial Fulian have attracted significant net buying, while others like Zhongke Shuguang and Dongshan Precision have faced net selling [5] Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend a balanced investment approach, seeking opportunities in both technology growth and dividend value sectors, while also considering defensive strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show strong fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4016.33 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, but concerns arise as Ningquan Asset announces a suspension of new client subscriptions for all its funds starting October 30, 2025, signaling caution in a potentially overheated market [1][3][12]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4016.33 points, the third time it has closed above 4000 points in history, following similar peaks in May 2007 and April 2015 [1]. - Ningquan Asset's management scale exceeded 450 billion yuan as of September, positioning it among the top tier of domestic stock private equity firms [3]. Ningquan Asset's Strategy - Ningquan Asset's decision to limit new subscriptions is interpreted as a prudent signal amid market overheating, with the firm emphasizing that "scale is the enemy of performance" [3][12]. - The firm has a total of 27 employees, with 19 in the investment research team, focusing on sectors like new energy, TMT, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and consumer finance [3]. Investment Philosophy - Ningquan Asset adopts a "farming-style" investment approach, seeking stable returns over time rather than chasing high-risk opportunities [6][7]. - The firm primarily invests in high-dividend, stable businesses, viewing them as a "stabilizing force" during market volatility [7]. Portfolio Management - As of August, Ningquan Asset maintained a stock position of over 70% in its flagship product, with a diversified industry allocation, including real estate, basic chemicals, and electric power [9]. - The firm has actively increased its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, including major companies like Vanke and Country Garden [9]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The private equity sector is experiencing a wave of subscription limits, with several firms, including quantitative leaders, taking similar actions to manage growth and performance [12]. - Ningquan Asset's caution reflects broader market concerns about structural bubbles in certain sectors, while still identifying valuable investment opportunities [13]. Future Outlook - Different private equity firms exhibit varied outlooks on the A-share market, with some expressing optimism for a "slow bull" market, while others remain cautious due to economic uncertainties [15][16]. - The investment community is closely monitoring the potential for structural shifts in market preferences, particularly towards low-valued cyclical assets as economic conditions evolve [16][17].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that active equity funds have increased their stock positions, with a focus on enhancing holdings in the technology and new energy sectors [4][12][20] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the number of active equity funds reached 4,626, a 1.58% increase from the previous quarter, while the total fund size rose to 4.12 trillion yuan, marking a 19.68% increase [4][7][9] - The issuance of new active equity funds in Q3 2025 totaled 561.10 billion yuan, representing a 53% increase compared to the previous quarter [9][10] Group 2 - The performance of active equity funds was strong in Q3 2025, with significant gains in the A-share market, particularly in mid-cap and growth-style funds [12][15] - The telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment sectors saw the highest increases, while the banking sector experienced significant declines [17][18] - The report highlights that technology, new energy, and cyclical theme funds had substantial gains, with median returns of 44.97%, 39.13%, and 35.76% respectively [20][21] Group 3 - As of the end of Q3 2025, the median stock position of active equity funds was 91.23%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from the previous quarter [25][26] - The concentration of holdings increased, with the median position in the top ten stocks rising to 48.39%, up 3.39 percentage points from the previous quarter [27][28] - The report notes a significant increase in holdings in the electronics, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors, while reductions were seen in the banking and food and beverage sectors [29][31] Group 4 - The top holdings included Ningde Times, which regained its position as the largest holding with a total value of 73.57 billion yuan, followed by significant increases in Industrial Fulian and SMIC [33][34] - The report indicates that stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng saw the largest increases in holdings, while Xiaomi Group-W and China Merchants Bank were among the most reduced [35][36] - The median position in Hong Kong stocks for active equity funds was 26.67%, a slight decrease of 0.36% from the previous quarter, while Hong Kong theme funds increased their median position to 85.02%, up 1.22% [40][41] Group 5 - The report highlights that the media sector remains the largest holding in Hong Kong theme funds, with a holding ratio of 16.77%, while significant increases were noted in the retail and non-ferrous metal sectors [43][44] - The report also mentions that the top increases in individual stocks for Hong Kong theme funds were seen in Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings, while Meituan-W and China Construction Bank were reduced [45]

Group 1 - In Q3 2025, the total market value of public actively managed equity funds and Stock Connect holdings in A-shares significantly increased, with public equity funds holding A-shares worth 3.56 trillion, a substantial increase of 21.5% from the previous quarter, and Stock Connect holdings reaching 2.59 trillion, up 12.9% [5][18][124] - The overall position of public actively managed equity funds continued to rise, with an overall position of 85.77%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the previous quarter, and over 40% of funds now have a high position of over 90% [5][25][31] - The concentration of heavily held stocks in public funds has increased, with CR10, CR20, and CR50 concentration rising by 1.64, 2.21, and 1.68 percentage points respectively [5][107] Group 2 - Both public funds and foreign capital through Stock Connect showed a high degree of consensus in style selection, significantly increasing their holdings in the growth sector (domestic +8.68%, foreign +10.52%) while reducing their positions in the financial sector (domestic -4.07%, foreign -6.17%) and consumer sector (domestic -4.17%, foreign -3.62%) [6][130] - In the consumer sector, both domestic and foreign investors continued to significantly reduce their holdings in food and beverage (domestic -1.67%, foreign -2.08%), as well as in automobiles (domestic -1.54%, foreign -0.30%) and home appliances (domestic -0.89%, foreign -0.79%) [6][51] - In the growth sector, both domestic and foreign investors significantly increased their holdings in electronics (domestic +3.79%, foreign +4.86%) and electrical equipment (domestic +2.01%, foreign +4.87%) [6][65] Group 3 - The financial sector saw a significant reduction in holdings, with both domestic and foreign investors heavily reducing their positions in banks (domestic -3.96%, foreign -4.38%) [6][97] - In the cyclical sector, there was a high degree of consensus, with both domestic and foreign investors significantly increasing their holdings in non-ferrous metals (domestic +1.42%, foreign +1.21%) while reducing their positions in public utilities [6][75] - The overall position in the cyclical sector continued to decline slightly, with more than half of the industries being reduced, particularly in public utilities and transportation [6][76]

Core Points - The Shenzhen Leading Index (399653) closed at 3133.91 points, down 0.66%, with a trading volume of 143.46 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.42% [1] - Among the index constituents, 11 stocks rose while 39 stocks fell, with Huali Group leading the gainers at 2.75% and Ruida Futures leading the decliners at 7.39% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen Leading Index include: - Ningde Times (21.12% weight) at 398.29 yuan, down 0.43%, with a market cap of 181.73 billion yuan [1] - Midea Group (7.29% weight) at 75.30 yuan, up 1.21%, with a market cap of 57.86 billion yuan [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang (7.12% weight) at 514.74 yuan, down 1.15%, with a market cap of 57.19 billion yuan [1] - Luxshare Precision (6.18% weight) at 65.04 yuan, down 3.33%, with a market cap of 47.36 billion yuan [1] - BYD (5.69% weight) at 103.61 yuan, down 0.87%, with a market cap of 94.46 billion yuan [1] - Sungrow Power Supply (4.83% weight) at 194.68 yuan, up 1.67%, with a market cap of 40.36 billion yuan [1] - Wrigley (4.50% weight) at 118.47 yuan, down 0.30%, with a market cap of 45.99 billion yuan [1] - Gree Electric Appliances (3.53% weight) at 40.47 yuan, down 0.54%, with a market cap of 22.67 billion yuan [1] - ZTE Corporation (2.97% weight) at 44.83 yuan, down 2.97%, with a market cap of 21.44 billion yuan [1] - Xianlefang A (2.81% weight) at 4.09 yuan, up 0.49%, with a market cap of 15.30 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Summary - The net outflow of main funds from the Shenzhen Leading Index constituents totaled 8.84 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 6.18 billion yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include: - Ningde Times with a net inflow of 94.67 million yuan from main funds and a net outflow of 38.40 million yuan from retail investors [3] - SF Holding with a net inflow of 93.43 million yuan from main funds and a net outflow of 61.70 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Other companies like Fenzhong Media and Luzhou Laojiao also experienced varying degrees of net inflows and outflows [3]

编号：2025-022 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 类别 | □现场参观 | | | （投资者网上说明会） 其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | 天风电新、永赢基金、长江电新、淡水泉投资、方正证券、浙商 | | 人员姓名 | 证券、招商资管 | | 时间 | 2025 年 10 月 29 日-30 日 | | 地点 | 电话会议 | | 上市公司接待人 | 副总经理、董事会秘书：范涛先生 | | 员姓名 | 证券事务代表：张莉芝女士 | | | 证券事务专员：金玉琳女士 首先，对公司情况进行了简单介绍，然后开始投资者交流环节。 | | | 投资者提问：公司对数据中心海外市场的布局？ | | | 范涛先生回答：公司在深耕国内市场的同时，高度重视海外市场 | | | 的战略布局和拓展，当前海外业务占比已超越国内。在海外数据 | | | 中心市场蓬勃发展的当下，公司从产品与市场双维度积极筹备， | | | 公司加快更新迭代原有产品，如高功率 UPS 产品在海外已批量供 | | 投资 ...

Group 1: TMT Sector Insights - Public funds have increased their positions in the TMT sector, with a notable rise of 11.20 percentage points to a historical high of 39.85% [1] - The most significant increases in the TMT sector were observed in electronics (+6.85 percentage points), telecommunications (+3.95 percentage points), power equipment (+2.39 percentage points), and non-ferrous metals (+1.31 percentage points) [1] - The overall market trend shows a preference for large-cap growth stocks, with significant increases in the ChiNext, STAR Market, and CSI 300 indices [1] Group 2: Aluminum Industry Dynamics - Rio Tinto is considering halting operations at its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales, Australia, which produces 590,000 tons of aluminum annually, accounting for approximately 40% of Australia's total aluminum output [2] - The rising electricity costs, which currently constitute over 40% of the operational costs at Tomago, are a critical factor influencing the potential shutdown [2] - The global aluminum demand is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, with emerging demand projected to increase from 14% to 22% between 2024 and 2030 [3] Group 3: Demand Trends in Aluminum - Rapid economic growth in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East is anticipated to drive aluminum demand, with a CAGR of 3.7% and 2.4% respectively from 2024 to 2030, making these regions the fastest-growing in terms of aluminum demand [4] - The global visible inventory is continuously declining, increasing the sensitivity of aluminum prices to supply and demand changes, while trade tariffs may lead companies to maintain higher inventory levels [4] - The aluminum industry is entering a historically significant period of supply-demand improvement, supporting the notion that aluminum prices are likely to rise, while industry profits are expected to continue increasing [4]

-创业板指 -- 上市公司数 总市值(万亿元) -- 创业板 上市公司 涨幅TOP10 涨幅 (%) 总市值(亿元) 所属行业 股票名称 新易盛 22493.35 4037 通信 5786 中际旭创 17072.40 通信 链接您与财富 市场有风险 给资雪谨慎 创业板开而16周 涨幅前10公司分布在5个行业 2009年10月30日创业板开市,发展至今已经16周年。当前创业板上市 公司数量已达1389家，总市值突破18万亿元。 4500 18.0820 4000 18 716 ER 7 3500 3000 12 2500 10 2000 8 1500 1000 500 2 O 2017-02-20 22:22:22:22 2017-08-20 20:00:00 2 创业板指于2010年6月1日正式发布，初始点数为1000点，截至10月29日，最新点数为3324.27点。 | 胜宏科技 | 10535.52 | 2950 | 电子 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | にFC 天孚通信 | 8912.57 | 1512 | は 通信 | | EVE 亿纬锂能 | 8434.99 | 1710 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry allocation has reached historical extremes, with active equity - type public funds in 25Q3 mainly adding positions in ChiNext component stocks and the technology sector, and increasing allocations in communication, media, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment while reducing positions in domestic - demand consumption sectors [4]. - The congestion level of the TMT technology sector represented by electronics has reached a historical high, with the electronic position ratio in 25Q3 reaching 25.7% and the TMT full - industry chain position ratio reaching 40%, and the margin trading balance ratio also hitting new highs [6]. - After the high congestion of the TMT technology sector represented by electronics, the subsequent market and observation indicators need to be discussed, including tracking the fundamentals, the change of PPI, and the trends of industrial capital [7]. - The clues for subsequent style switching are to track PPI and pay attention to the opportunities for the clearance of chips in undervalued reversal - type industries during the bottom - rising stage of inflation [8]. - In the context of the upsurge in index - based investment, the scale of ETFs remains high, and the equity positions of fixed - income + funds have increased [9]. - The net value performance of active equity - type funds shows that the money - making effect has continued to improve under high positions, but as the net value recovers to the cost line, public funds face greater redemption pressure, which is expected to ease with the establishment of a slow - bull market [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Allocation Reaches Historical Extremes - **A - share Plate Allocation**: In 25Q3, active equity - type public funds added positions in the ChiNext and reduced positions in the Main Board and the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The Main Board accounted for 49.1% (down 5 percentage points from 25Q2), the ChiNext accounted for 17.6% (up 3.9 percentage points), and the Science and Technology Innovation Board accounted for 13.7% (up 1.9 percentage points). The configuration coefficients of the ChiNext increased by 0.16, while those of the Main Board and the Science and Technology Innovation Board decreased by 0.05 and 0.26 respectively [13]. - **Hong Kong Stock Allocation**: In 25Q3, the allocation proportion of Hong Kong - connected stocks reached a high and then declined, with the structure shifting from technology to medicine, non - ferrous metals, and new energy. The top five industries with increased allocation proportions in Hong Kong - connected stocks were commerce and trade retail (+6.3%), medicine and biology (+3.3%), non - ferrous metals (+1.7%), power equipment (+0.7%), and real estate (+0.7%). The top three industries with decreased allocation proportions were social services (-2.3%), communication (-2.1%), and light manufacturing (-1.9%) [16]. - **Style Allocation**: In 25Q3, active equity - type public funds added positions in the constituent stocks of the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300, with their configuration coefficients rising by 0.12 and 0.07 respectively. The configuration coefficients of the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Guozheng 2000 decreased by 0.21, 0.06, and 0.07 respectively [20]. - **A - share Major Category Plate Allocation**: Active equity - type public funds added positions in the technology (TMT) sector, with a configuration coefficient of 1.79 (up 0.22 from 25Q2) and a configuration proportion of 40%. Other sectors were generally reduced in positions [21]. - **First - level Industry Allocation**: In 25Q3, industries with increased positions included communication, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, etc., while industries with reduced positions included household appliances, social services, and automobiles. For example, the position proportion of electronics reached 25.7% (up 6.9 percentage points from 25Q2), and the position proportion of communication reached 9.3% (up 3.9 percentage points) [24]. 3.2 Subsequent Market and Observation Indicators of the Highly Congested TMT Technology Sector Represented by Electronics - **Historical Comparison of Single - Industry Position Ratios**: Since 2010, the maximum position ratio of public funds in a single industry has almost all been around 20%, with a total of 7 times. In 25Q3, the electronic position ratio reached 25.7%, exceeding the experience upper limit of 20% [40]. - **TMT Industry Chain Position Ratio**: In 25Q3, the TMT industry chain position ratio accelerated to 40%, reaching a historical high, but the configuration coefficient was only 1.8, still far from the level in 2015 [41]. - **Leveraged Funds and Market Main - Line Switching**: In the past, when leveraged funds and active equity adjusted positions in resonance and their allocations to a single industry reached high points simultaneously, it was easy to trigger a market main - line switch. Currently, the margin trading balance ratio of the electronics industry has exceeded 15%, setting a new historical high [47]. - **Stock Performance after Position Peaks**: After the industry position ratio reaches its peak, the absolute/relative returns face challenges in 2 - 3 quarters. The position ratio usually takes 3 - 10 quarters to fall from the highest point to the lowest point, and each adjustment will fall from around 20% to around 10% or even single - digit levels [50]. 3.3 ETF Scale Remains High, and the Equity Positions of Fixed - income + Funds Increase - **ETF Situation**: In 25Q3, the total scale of stock - type ETFs exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, and the proportion of ETF stock - holding market value was 3.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from 25Q2. From July to August, ETFs were generally net - redeemed, and from late August to mid - October, they began to have net inflows. The shares of most broad - based ETFs declined, while the shares of some industry ETFs such as banks, securities, and innovative drugs increased [9]. - **Fixed - income + Funds**: In 25Q3, as the bond market entered a volatile period and the equity market continued to recover, fixed - income + funds increased their equity allocation. The single - quarter stock - holding market value increased by nearly 100 billion yuan, and the equity position increased by 2.4 percentage points to 9.9% [9]. 3.4 Total Perspective: The Money - making Effect of Public Funds under High Positions Continues to Improve, but Public Funds Face Greater Redemption Pressure as the Net Value Recovers to the Cost Line - **Net Value Performance**: Since the beginning of 2025, public funds have maintained high positions, and the money - making effect has continued to improve. The median net value increase of active equity - type public funds since the beginning of 2025 was 26.9%. The overall positions of ordinary stock - type, partial - stock hybrid, and flexible - allocation funds in 25Q3 increased by 0.7, 1.0, and 2.3 percentage points respectively, approaching historical high levels [9]. - **Redemption Pressure**: As the net value recovers to the cost line, public funds face greater redemption pressure. In 25Q3, the net redemption shares of active equity funds further expanded, with new fund issuances of 1.19 billion shares and active equity stock redemptions of 231.9 billion shares, resulting in a single - quarter net redemption of 22 billion shares [9].

Core Viewpoint - China Orient Group's subsidiary, Qingdao Huijintong Electric Equipment Co., Ltd., reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, indicating challenges in the company's financial performance [1] Financial Performance - The total operating revenue for the period was 2.902 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 82.2755 million RMB, down 21.6% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at 0.2426 RMB [1]