Core Viewpoint - The electric equipment and new energy industry has gradually emerged from a period of capacity expansion and supply-demand imbalance, achieving a rebalancing of supply and demand [1] Group 1: Battery Industry - The battery industry is experiencing a profit rebound, with significant inventory recovery and capital expenditure hitting a bottom, supported by new investment directions such as solid-state batteries [1] - Lithium battery material prices have stabilized and are recovering, with strong demand in both the power and energy storage markets, projecting over threefold growth in midstream material shipments from 2025 to 2035 [1] - Solid-state battery technology is accelerating its iteration, with expectations for mass production by 2027 driven by policy support, while emerging scenarios like humanoid robots will further stimulate demand [1] Group 2: Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage sector is advancing market-oriented trading, with new energy storage installation capacity surpassing 100 GW, and increasing demand driven by high growth in overseas AI electricity consumption [1] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry is seeing a favorable bidding scale, with wind turbine prices stabilizing and offshore wind power moving towards deep sea development, accelerating the implementation of floating technology [1] - It is expected that the average annual installation growth will exceed 80% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 4: Investment Trends - The industry is in a phase of profit recovery, with sector-specific rebounds and technological breakthroughs (nuclear fusion, solid-state batteries, AIDC) forming the main investment themes [1] Group 5: ETF Performance - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%, focusing on listed companies involved in clean energy production, storage, and application [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of high-growth and technologically innovative new energy-related listed companies [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on the "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][19][26] - The model evaluates the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies, referencing studies by George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM framework, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard," which emphasize the importance of stocks near their 52-week highs as potential leaders in market uptrends [11][18][21] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Sustained new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days [26][28][29] - The report identifies 41 "stable new high stocks" based on the above criteria, with the majority belonging to cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Notable industries include non-ferrous metals and machinery [29][30][32] - Backtesting results show that cyclical and manufacturing sectors have the highest number of stocks achieving new highs, with cyclical stocks leading in non-ferrous metals and manufacturing stocks excelling in machinery [19][20][29]

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年12月5日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为3.14%、 4.21%、3.44%、5.98%、4.00%、2.50%、6.47%、13.84%。中信一级行业指数中家电、轻工制造、有色金属、通信、建材行业指数距离250日新高 较近，食品饮料、综合金融、银行、医药、商贸零售行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，卫星互联网、卫星导航、家用电器、家居用品、林木、黄 金、家用电器等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年12月5日，共965只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是基础化工、电力设备及新能源、机械行业，创新 高个股数量占比最高的是煤炭、纺织服装、石油石化行业。按照板块分布来看，本周周期、制造板块创新高股票数量最多；按照 ...

Group 1 - The core performance of banks is expected to recover and grow in 2026, marking the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on a "new momentum combination" for bank stocks [2] - The investment strategy for bank stocks will be discussed, including the outlook on fundamentals and the value of bank stock investments [2] - The investment perspective on the banking sector and stock selection strategies will be highlighted [2] Group 2 - The investment strategy for 2026 will focus on three main investment lines, targeting new opportunities in the Beijing Stock Exchange, particularly in technology growth, high-end manufacturing, and new materials [5] - The valuation levels of the Beijing Stock Exchange are expected to recover, with a decrease in discount rates, aligning with national strategic emerging industry development directions [5] - The Beijing Stock Exchange is home to a number of high-quality enterprises that are technically solid and leading in niche fields, providing investors with opportunities to capture long-term value [5] Group 3 - The potential for AI and intelligent control to ignite a new wave in the computer industry will be explored, along with the prospects for the "rare metals" cycle and the energy sector's transition to a zero-carbon era [7] - East Guangdong Securities will focus on the technological, resource, and energy transformations as the main investment lines for 2026 [7] Group 4 - The potential for innovative drugs to expand internationally and the expected turnaround in biotechnology will be examined, alongside the performance improvements in the medical device sector [9] - Structural opportunities in consumer healthcare and biological products will be discussed, aiming to reshape the investment logic in the pharmaceutical sector for 2026 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Q4 style rotation model indicates signals for small-cap and growth stocks, with a focus on sectors such as electric equipment and renewable energy for December [1][2]. Style Rotation Model - The Q4 style rotation model has issued signals favoring small-cap stocks, with a comprehensive score of -1 for the dual-driven rotation strategy as of September 30, 2025 [3]. - The value-growth style rotation model shows a comprehensive score of -3 for the dual-driven rotation strategy, indicating a preference for growth stocks [4]. Industry Rotation Insights - In November, the composite factor strategy yielded an excess return of -0.58%, while the single-factor long strategy had an excess return of -0.83% [4]. - For December, the single-factor long strategy recommends bullish sectors including banking, construction, non-bank financials, and electric equipment and renewable energy. The composite factor strategy suggests bullish sectors such as telecommunications, comprehensive finance, computer technology, electric equipment and renewable energy, and utilities [4].

Group 1: Style Rotation Insights - The Q4 style rotation model indicates signals for small-cap and growth stocks [2][3] - The dual-driven rotation strategy for Q4 has a composite score of -1, predicting a focus on small-cap stocks [3] - The value-growth style rotation model shows a composite score of -3, suggesting a preference for growth stocks [4] Group 2: Industry Rotation Analysis - In November, the composite factor strategy yielded an excess return of -0.58%, while the single-factor long strategy had an excess return of -0.83% [4] - For December, the recommended long industries based on single-factor strategies include banking, construction, non-bank financials, and electric equipment & new energy [4] - The composite factor strategy recommends long positions in telecommunications, comprehensive finance, computers, electric equipment & new energy, and utilities [4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In November 2025, the pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market, with the SW pharmaceutical and biological index declining by 3.6% compared to a 1.7% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [7] - The relative premium level of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 72.6%, indicating a normal valuation level compared to all A-shares [7] - In the Hong Kong market, the pharmaceutical sector performed similarly to the market, with the Hang Seng Medical Care index at -0.1% and the biotechnology sector at +0.4% [7] Group 4: U.S. Pharmaceutical Market Trends - In November 2025, the U.S. pharmaceutical sector outperformed the broader market, with the S&P Healthcare Select Sector Index rising by 9.1% compared to a 0.1% increase in the S&P 500 [8] - Notable gainers in the S&P 500 healthcare component included Eli Lilly (+25%) and Solventum (+23%) [8]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a multi-strategy stock selection approach, highlighting the importance of value and quality styles in the current market environment [1][2] - In December 2025, the weight allocation for the quality stock selection strategy is the highest at approximately 38.84%, while the growth stock selection strategy has the lowest allocation at about 7.64% [2][19] - The multi-strategy stock selection strategy recorded an absolute return of -3.72% in November, with a relative excess return of -1.48% compared to the CSI All Share Index [2][27] Group 2 - The "High BETA" stock selection strategy has the highest weight allocation in large-cap value stocks at 50%, while the allocation for small-cap value stocks is the lowest at 14.17% [4][46] - In November, the "High BETA" strategy achieved an absolute return of -0.76% and a relative excess return of -1.56% compared to the CSI All Share Index [4][16] - The report indicates that the "High BETA" strategy's performance is closely monitored, with adjustments made based on market conditions [3][46] Group 3 - The "Dividend+" preferred stock strategy achieved an absolute return of 1.99% in November, with a relative excess return of 4.38% compared to the CSI All Share Index [5][18] - This strategy includes a total of 30 selected stocks, with an average market capitalization of 658.36 billion, primarily concentrated in the banking and light manufacturing sectors [5][18] - The report highlights the strong performance of the "Dividend+" strategy relative to its benchmarks, indicating its effectiveness in the current market [5][18] Group 4 - The moving average trend strategy recorded an absolute return of 1.81% in November, with a relative excess return of 4.19% compared to the CSI All Share Index [6][18] - Year-to-date, this strategy has achieved an absolute return of 22.14% and a relative excess return of 1.22% [6][18] - The strategy's holdings are primarily in the oil, petrochemical, and telecommunications sectors, indicating a focus on specific industries [6][18] Group 5 - The sentiment price-volume strategy's top 50 portfolio had an absolute return of -2.52% in November, with a relative excess return of -0.25% compared to the CSI All Share Index [6][16] - The top 100 portfolio recorded an absolute return of -4.41%, with a relative excess return of -2.18% [6][16] - This strategy's holdings are mainly in the electronics, machinery, and automotive sectors, reflecting its targeted investment approach [6][16] Group 6 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board strategy achieved an absolute return of -0.75% in November, with a relative excess return of 5.86% compared to the CSI All Share Index [7][16] - Year-to-date, this strategy has recorded an impressive absolute return of 75.29% and a relative excess return of 30.62% [7][16] - The strategy's holdings are primarily concentrated in the electronics industry, showcasing its focus on high-growth sectors [7][16]

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证券研究报告 | 2025年12月01日 主动量化策略周报 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略 12 月配置建议： 关注钢铁、银行、建筑、公用事业、电新等行业 核心观点 金融工程周报 本报告对 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略的样本外表现进行跟踪，从多个维度解析 行业景气度情况并最终给出月度行业配置建议，以供投资者参考。 行业轮动因子表现 上月以来（20251103-20251128），超大单资金净流入金额占比和券商金股 行业变动因子表现较好，SUE、PB 和单季度 ROE 增速因子表现较差； 今年以来（20250102-20251128），公募重仓股动量、SUE 和分析师认可 度和因子表现较好，而成交量调节动量、公募基金持仓行业变动和超大单资 金净流入金额占比因子表现较差。 上月组合绩效回顾 上月以来（20251103-20251128），行业轮动组合收益率-1.09%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率-1.16%，组合超额收益率 0.08%。 今年以来（20250102-20251031），行业轮动组合收益率 20.48%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率 20.20%，组合超额收益率 0.28%。 本月组合推荐情 ...