广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zh ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 记者丨江佩佩 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨谢珍 当地时间12月23日，美股三大指数集体收涨，均录得日线4连涨。纳指涨0.57%，标普500指数涨 0.46%，道指涨0.16%。其中，标普500指数录得收盘新高。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 48442.41 | 23561.84 | 6909.79 | | +79.73 +0.16% | +133.01 +0.57% | +31.30 +0.46% | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7638.99 | 25810.25 | 6958.25 | | -44.27 -0.58% | -0.01% -2.00 | -0.04% -2.75 | 大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨1.18%。英伟达涨超3%，市值一夜增加1341亿美元 （约合人民币9425亿元）。 博通涨逾2%，谷歌、亚马逊涨超1%，Meta、苹果、微软、奈飞小幅上涨；特斯拉、英特尔小幅下跌。 诺和诺德涨超7%。消息面上，据智通财经，美国FDA批准了诺和诺德 ...

| 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/12/22 | -106.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/19 | -98.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/18 | -90.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/17 | -83.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/16 | -74.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 一、动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/12/22 2025/12/19 2025/12/18 2025/12/17 2025/12/1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - **Glass**: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - **Rubber**: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - **Urea**: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - **PTA**: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - **Apple and Jujube**: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：020- 88818018 邮箱：chenshangyu@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities in the futures market, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news for each commodity, along with corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Platinum**: Domestic and international markets resonate, and the bullish sentiment remains unabated, with a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. - **Palladium**: The climbing pace has slowed, with an upward trend in oscillations, and a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose as the US dollar declined, with a trend intensity of 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: Narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][15]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Supply has encountered new disruptions, with a trend intensity of 1 [18][22]. - **Aluminum**: Range - bound oscillations, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina had a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 0; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the news of Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: Not specifically mentioned in a comprehensive way, but some related commodities like fuel oil and asphalt are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rose, and short - term volatility increased, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly followed the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price had a narrow - range adjustment, remaining stable despite the oil price trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [80][89]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Do not chase the high price, and it is in a high - level oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **MEG**: The trend is relatively weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **LLDPE**: Some full - density products have been redirected, and the valuation support is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [94][96]. - **PP**: The PDH profit has been compressed again, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: A short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, with a trend intensity of 0 [100][102]. - **Methanol**: Oscillations are supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [112][115]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [116][119]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has changed little, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **LPG**: The external cost is relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [127][132]. - **Propylene**: There are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the short - term trend is supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [128][132]. - **PVC**: A short - term rebound, but the upward space may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [136][137]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production cut is gradually being realized, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend intensity of 1 [168][174]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans rebounded, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, with a trend intensity of 0 [168][174]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans rose overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate, with a trend intensity of +1 [175][177]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [175][177]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][181]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis, with a trend intensity of 0 [182][185]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking, with a trend intensity of 0 [187][191]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - **Hogs**: Hold the reverse spread, with a trend intensity of - 1 [195][200]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [202][204]. Others - **Logs**: Low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [59][62]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center has moved up, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [104][106]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [109][110]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Iron**: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is strongly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The long and short sentiments are intertwined, and the trend is widely oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [55][58]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Near - term contracts should focus on the opening guidance, while far - term contracts should focus on the progress of the Gaza peace talks, with a trend intensity of 0 [141][155]. - **Short Fibre**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with compressed processing fees, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [160]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [165][166].

当地时间12月22日，美股市场三大指数全线上涨，大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉、英伟达、谷歌-C、亚马逊、META均上涨，微软、苹果下跌。欧洲股市 全线下跌，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数均小幅下跌。 消息面上，意大利竞争与市场管理局（AGCM）周一表示，已对美国科技巨头苹果及其两家子公司处以9860万欧元罚款，原因是其涉嫌在移动应用市场滥 用支配地位。 银行股普遍上涨，摩根大通上涨1.87%，高盛集团上涨0.60%，花旗集团上涨2.79%，摩根士丹利上涨1.52%，美国银行上涨1.05%，富国银行上涨1.35%。 热门中概股多数上涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.58%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾10%，爱奇艺、搜狐、晶科能源、好未来等涨逾2%，阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车、 新东方等小幅上涨。 现货黄金价格、现货白银价格大涨，均再次创下历史新高。 美股三大指数全线上涨 当地时间12月22日，欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至收盘，英国富时100指数下跌0.32%，法国CAC40指数下跌0.37%，德国DAX指数下跌0.05%，意大利 MIB指数下跌0.37%，欧洲STOXX50指数下跌0.29%。 美股三大指数全线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Fuel Oil [1] - **Sideways**: Stock Index, Bond Futures, Zinc, Precious Metals, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak performance, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some non - ferrous metals and precious metals are showing positive trends, while the prices of some agricultural products and energy - chemical products are under pressure or in a sideways pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it will continue to be weak. The adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window for the upward movement next year. Investors can consider gradually building long positions during the adjustment [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the recovery of market risk appetite, the copper price is running strongly [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and the aluminum price is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have improved and the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is still high. Due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the primary nickel market is in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel iron has stabilized, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The steel mills' production reduction in December is expected to increase. The futures price has continued to rebound, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and the tin price has strengthened due to capital speculation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and geopolitical tensions support the price, but the Fed officials' remarks bring short - term volatility risks [1]. - **Silver**: Macro - drivers, supply - demand imbalance, and increasing ETF holdings are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The outer - market platinum price has reached a new high, and the inner - market may follow the upward trend. However, due to the high premium of the domestic futures price and the exchange's risk - control measures, short - term volatility risks should be noted [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand. The supply side has increased production resumption [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is acceptable, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Coal and Coke**: After the negative news was digested, there were signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will carry out winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the weak performance of the CBOT market and other domestic oils and is running weakly [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be over, and the global main producing areas are expected to have a good harvest. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid replenishment demand. The market is currently in a situation of "supported but without a driver" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and a large - scale supply of new domestic crops. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support [1]. - **Corn**: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The inventory at each link is at a historical low, and there is expected to be stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean**: The US soybean export is weak, and the Brazilian soybean is expected to have a good harvest. The inner - market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Pulp**: The futures price is affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]. - **Log**: Affected by the decline in the outer - market quotation and spot price, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and there are factors such as the possible falsification of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand and sufficient supply of Mare crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost has increased, the price has risen, the operating rate has remained high, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the polyester pre - holiday stocking sales have improved [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen due to inventory accumulation, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The price closely follows the cost [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: The cost provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment has recovered, and the total inventory remains high [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the cost side [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, but the cost support is strong [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price is oscillating in a range [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The procurement rhythm has slowed down, the operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas market has returned to the basic - face loosening logic, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth [1]. Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the global market enters the "Christmas mode", with stock markets in the US, Europe, and Hong Kong closed on Christmas Day. Key economic data from China, the US, and the UK will be released, and the selection of the Fed Chairman is highly anticipated. Gold and crude oil trends are in focus. Huawei and Leapmotor will hold product and anniversary press conferences respectively [7]. - The "zero - tariff" imported car policy in the Hainan Free Trade Port has been officially implemented, but it only applies to enterprises engaged in transportation and tourism in Hainan [7]. - The first L3 - level autonomous driving license in China was issued in Chongqing, marking that China may become the first country to scale - release L3 - level autonomous driving [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes innovation - driven development and the construction of a unified national market. The National Market Regulatory Administration has issued a compliance guide for the automotive industry's price behavior [8]. - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total trust asset scale of the Chinese trust industry exceeded 30 trillion yuan, ranking third in the asset management market [8]. - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative oil and gas equivalent production in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, setting a new record [9]. - Fed's Harker tends to keep interest rates stable before spring and opposes recent rate cuts due to inflation concerns [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Coking Coal | 1,104.00 | 1,108.00 | -4.0 | -0.361% | | Coke | 1,735.50 | 1,597.50 | 138.0 | 8.638% | | Natural Rubber | 15,170.00 | 15,190.00 | -20.0 | -0.132% | | 20 - grade Rubber | 12,330.00 | 12,360.00 | -30.0 | -0.243% | | Plastic | 6,320.00 | 6,320.00 | 0 | 0% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,208.00 | 6,213.00 | -5.0 | -0.080% | | PTA | 4,980.00 | 4,882.00 | 98.0 | 2.007% | | PVC | 4,594.00 | 4,652.00 | -58.0 | -1.247% | | Asphalt | 2,940.00 | 2,909.00 | 31.0 | 1.066% | | Methanol | 2,167.00 | 2,148.00 | 19.0 | 0.885% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,746.00 | 3,738.00 | 8.0 | 0.214% | | Styrene | 6,443.00 | 6,402.00 | 41.0 | 0.640% | | Glass | 1,039.00 | 1,041.00 | -2.0 | -0.192% | | Crude Oil | 431.90 | 426.60 | 5.30 | 1.242% | | Fuel Oil | 2,415.00 | 2,390.00 | 25.0 | 1.046% | | Soda Ash | 1,174.00 | 1,176.00 | -2.0 | -0.170% | | Pulp | 5,610.00 | 5,506.00 | 104.0 | 1.889% | | LPG | 4,092.00 | 4,099.00 | -7.0 | -0.171% | | Caustic Soda | 2,164.00 | 2,164.00 | 0 | 0% | | ЬХ | 7,222.00 | 7,070.00 | 152.0 | 2.150% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,090.00 | 4,052.00 | 38.0 | 0.938% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,674.00 | 3,676.00 | -2.0 | -0.054% | | Bean Meal | 2,738.00 | 2,735.00 | 3.0 | 0.110% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,322.00 | 2,323.00 | -1.0 | -0.043% | | Egg | 7,718.00 | 7,712.00 | 6.0 | 0.078% | | Rapeseed Oil | 8,717.00 | 8,744.00 | -27.0 | -0.309% | | Palm Oil | 8,276.00 | 8,292.00 | -16.0 | -0.193% | | White Sugar | 5,109.00 | 5,088.00 | 21.0 | 0.413% | | Yellow Corn | 2,200.00 | 2,192.00 | 8.0 | 0.365% | | Corn Starch | 2,502.00 | 2,502.00 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton No.1 | 14,050.00 | 14,015.00 | 35.0 | 0.250% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,150.00 | 20,050.00 | 100.0 | 0.499% | [4] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 19, the sugar futures closed at 5088 yuan/ton, showing a weak trend. Supply pressure is the core driver. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, paying attention to the price around the cost line. Resistance is at 5100 - 5110 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On December 19, the corn futures closed at 2192 yuan/ton, with prices oscillating at the bottom. Supply pressure is emerging, while demand is divided. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the support at 2180 yuan/ton and the resistance at 2200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures market is in a weak - reality and improving - expectation situation. There are weak rebound opportunities, and it is advisable to use the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price in Hebei was stable with a slight decline. The market is bearish, and it is recommended to hold the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage [12]. - **Cotton**: On December 19, the cotton futures closed at 14015 yuan/ton, showing a strong - oscillating trend. Supply pressure is short - term, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to build long positions at dips near the new support level of 13900 - 13950 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot market price is stable. Supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and demand support from compound fertilizer enterprises has weakened. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is stable, and the price is in a weak - stable adjustment. There is a short - term short - covering rebound [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and supply is relatively loose. Steel mills' maintenance has weakened the replenishment demand for coking coal and coke, which are expected to be in a weak - oscillating state [13]. - **Log**: The futures price is in a weak state. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions at high prices [14]. - **Pulp**: The market presents a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The price is high, and there is a risk of a high - level correction. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price is in a weak - oscillating state. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions at high prices near 3980 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and there is a short - term short - covering rebound [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamental pressure is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand drive for ferroalloys at the end of the year is weak. Prices follow the trend of the black - series market, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has broken through the 110,000 - yuan mark. Supply may increase, but demand from the energy - storage sector is strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On December 19, the three major A - share indices rose. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility [20]. - **Stock Index**: On December 19, the three major indices closed higher. It is expected that the index will oscillate in a range at the end of the year. It is advisable to buy on dips and take profits on rallies, keeping a flexible position [22][23].

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看 ...