Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial sector, the short - term strong US dollar suppresses gold prices, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and the bond market sentiment will improve this week but with continued market fluctuations. The implementation of the national parenting subsidy system is expected to drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. - In the commodity sector, the supply and demand of various commodities vary. For example, the supply of coking coal is slightly tight, the supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, and the supply of some energy - chemical products is affected by factors such as production restrictions and inventory changes [13][17][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion from July to September, $450 billion more than the April forecast. Gold prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar, and the market is volatile this week. Short - term, gold is in a volatile state, and there is a risk of decline [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Thailand expects a favorable trade agreement from the US after the cease - fire with Cambodia. Trump may impose a 15% - 20% tariff on imports from countries without a separate trade agreement and shortens the cease - fire deadline for Russia. The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The national parenting subsidy system will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child. It is expected to increase annual fiscal expenditure by over 110 billion yuan and drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock index varieties [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US July Dallas Fed business activity index is 0.9, better than expected. The US Treasury raises its Q3 borrowing forecast. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The bond market sentiment will improve this week, but there are still uncertainties, and it is recommended to enter and exit quickly when going long [24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Environmental inspections in Wuhai limit coal production, and coking coal supply is tight. Coke prices are rising, but there are risks due to rapid price increases. It is necessary to manage positions [26][27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean good - to - excellent ratings rise to 70%, and Brazil's July soybean exports are expected to exceed last year. Domestic soybean meal inventory increases. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and focus on the Sino - US talks this week [28][30]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 25, soybean oil inventory decreases slightly, and palm oil inventory increases. Malaysian palm oil production increases in July. The market is expected to be under pressure, but palm oil has support. Soybean oil prices are hard to rise due to sufficient supply [31][32][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangtang Group aims for a sugarcane order area of 2.18 million mu by the end of 2025. Pakistan bids to buy 100,000 tons of sugar. The Sino - Thai AEO mutual recognition agreement will be implemented on August 1. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and focus on the resistance level of 5,900 yuan [35][36][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch spot prices are stable. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of some enterprises' production. Starch enterprises' losses may continue or expand [38][39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast China is expected to have more precipitation in the next 10 days, increasing waterlogging risks. Corn futures show differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop contracts and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's transportation fixed - asset investment in H1 is 1.6474 trillion yuan. Steel prices decline due to changes in market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term [42][43][44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Northern port steam coal prices are stable. Coal consumption growth slows down, and supply is slightly weak. Pay attention to coal consumption growth and port inventory changes [45]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company plans to develop an iron ore project. Iron ore prices follow the decline of coal prices. The fundamentals may weaken later. It is recommended to reduce positions [46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An aluminum plant in Xinjiang's alumina tender price rises. The domestic alumina surplus is increasing, and the futures price falls after rising. It is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Zimbabwe makes progress, and a lithium refinery project in Morocco is advancing. The futures exchange limits positions, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory for reverse arbitrage [50][51][52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Turkey raises the import reference price of some photovoltaic products. Polysilicon prices are affected by the market. The price is expected to be between 41,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and consider buying on dips [53][55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal in some areas rises. Industrial silicon production increases, and inventory changes. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities or sell out - of - the - money call options [57][58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment. In the short - term, it may be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is expected to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead smelting system in Guizhou starts production, and lead ingot social inventory changes little. The lead price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage [63][64][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Bolivian zinc concentrate production decreases in May, and domestic zinc ingot inventory increases. The zinc price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to positive calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for cross - border trading [67][68][69]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A refinery's LPG - related device is about to start. The LPG price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia temporarily bans gasoline exports. Oil prices rebound. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [73][74]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increases, and social inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile [75][76][77]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increases. The styrene price is affected by the macro - environment. Pay attention to macro - sentiment changes [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea prices in North China decline. The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [80][81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices decline. The PX price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the long - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA prices decline. The PTA price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The soda ash price drops sharply. The market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait for policy guidance [87]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market change. The glass price drops, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [88][89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export and domestic prices decrease. Bottle chip production decreases, but demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing margins on dips [90][91][92].

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound on July 28, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing up by 0.96% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - The computing hardware sector saw a significant surge, while innovative drug concept stocks maintained strong performance [1] - Active performance was noted in military and commercial aerospace concept stocks [1] - Conversely, cyclical stocks such as steel and coal experienced collective adjustments [1] ETF Performance - All ETFs that rose were related to innovative drugs, with the East Money Fund's Innovative Drug ETF (159622) leading the market with a 4.1% increase [3] - Other notable ETFs in the innovative drug sector also saw gains, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) up by 4.04% and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) up by 4.01% [3] Policy Updates - On July 24, the National Medical Insurance Administration announced the initiation of the 11th batch of centralized procurement, optimizing specific rules regarding the selection process [2] - The new rules will no longer simply use the lowest bid as a reference point, and companies with the lowest bids must publicly justify their pricing [2] Industry Insights - According to a report by Industrial Securities, the AACR and ASCO meetings this year showcased numerous domestic innovative drugs exceeding expectations, with anticipation for data releases from upcoming industry conferences [4] - There has been ongoing progress in foreign licensing transactions for innovative drugs, with expectations for more high-quality domestic products to explore international opportunities [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.11%, -0.48%, and 2.73% respectively. In the public - fund market, the returns of stock - bond strategies were differentiated in the past week. Among equity strategies, passive index - type products led in returns, and market - neutral strategy products mostly rose. In bond strategies, the pure - bond fund index showed a significant decline. In the commodity market, energy - chemical ETFs were strong with a weekly increase of 6.00%, non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and precious - metal ETFs continued the upward trend of net value [3]. - Among the CITIC five - style indices, all style indices closed up last Friday. The cycle and growth styles led in returns. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the cycle and stable styles increased significantly, while the momentum of the consumption style decreased slightly. In the public - fund pool, the average returns of financial and consumption - style funds significantly outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 1.14% and 0.23% respectively. The excess returns of cycle and growth - style funds continued to shrink. The stable style strengthened slightly, and the cycle style declined. In terms of crowding, the growth and cycle styles rebounded marginally, while the consumption and financial styles remained in the historically high - crowding range [3]. - Among Barra factors, the residual volatility factor performed well in the past week, with an excess return of 0.60%. The returns of momentum and valuation factors weakened marginally, and the excess return of the profitability factor continued to shrink. In terms of winning rate, the growth factor declined, and the capital - flow factor strengthened slightly. This week, the cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rose from the historically low - quantile range to the middle range. According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, and the consumption style recovered. The current signal favors the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.36%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 1.59% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Performance - Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing) had a weekly return of 2.11%, the ChinaBond Composite Bond Index had a return of - 0.48%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index had a return of 2.73% as of July 25, 2025 [3]. 3.2 Public - Fund Market Performance - **Equity Strategies**: Passive index - type products led in returns, and market - neutral strategy products mostly rose [3]. - **Bond Strategies**: The pure - bond fund index showed a significant decline [3]. - **Commodity Market**: Energy - chemical ETFs had a weekly increase of 6.00%, non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and precious - metal ETFs continued the upward trend of net value [3]. 3.3 CITIC Five - Style Index Performance - **Return Performance**: All style indices closed up last Friday. The cycle and growth styles led in returns [3]. - **Relative Strength and Momentum**: The relative strength of the cycle and stable styles increased significantly, while the momentum of the consumption style decreased slightly [3]. - **Fund Excess Return**: The average returns of financial and consumption - style funds significantly outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 1.14% and 0.23% respectively. The excess returns of cycle and growth - style funds continued to shrink [3]. - **Style Trend**: The stable style strengthened slightly, and the cycle style declined [3]. - **Crowding**: The growth and cycle styles rebounded marginally, while the consumption and financial styles remained in the historically high - crowding range [3]. 3.4 Barra Factor Performance - **Factor Return**: The residual volatility factor had an excess return of 0.60%. The returns of momentum and valuation factors weakened marginally, and the excess return of the profitability factor continued to shrink [3]. - **Winning Rate and Momentum**: The growth factor declined in terms of winning rate, and the capital - flow factor strengthened slightly [3]. - **Factor Rotation Speed**: The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rose from the historically low - quantile range to the middle range [3]. 3.5 Style Timing Strategy - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, and the consumption style recovered. The current signal favors the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.36%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 1.59% [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has become the leader in the number of national-level manufacturing single champion enterprises, surpassing Zhejiang, with a total of 238 such enterprises as of last year [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Shandong's Champion Enterprises - Shandong's manufacturing single champion enterprises focus on key technologies in traditional industries such as energy and machinery, with notable companies including Weichai Heavy Machinery and Taishan Steel [2]. - The province is also making strides in emerging industries like new information technology and new materials, with companies such as Zhenghai Magnetic and Debang Technology leading the way [2]. Group 2: Incentives and Support for Champion Enterprises - Shandong has implemented a reward policy since 2016, offering 2 million yuan for selected champion demonstration enterprises and 1 million yuan for nurturing enterprises, with local governments providing additional rewards [2]. - Other provinces also offer support, with Shenzhen providing up to 200,000 yuan for national-level champions and 100,000 yuan for municipal-level champions [3][4]. Group 3: Benefits of Being a Champion Enterprise - Champion enterprises receive various policy supports, including financial aid, tax incentives, and market development assistance [5]. - They are seen as key players for future listings on capital markets, making it easier for them to attract financial capital [6]. - Banks offer low-interest loans and special credit limits to champion enterprises, significantly reducing their financing costs [7]. - The title enhances brand influence and product recognition, serving as a quality assurance for the enterprises [8]. Group 4: Support from Research Institutions - Professional research institutions like Qianzhan Industry Research Institute assist enterprises in gathering market information and preparing application materials for champion status [9][17].

Market Overview - On July 28, 2025, A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.96%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan [1]. Innovation Drug Sector - Innovation drug-related ETFs led the market with significant gains, including the Innovation Drug ETF Hong Kong-Shenzhen (159622) rising by 4.10%, and the Hong Kong Innovation Drug 50 ETF (513780) increasing by 4.04% [1]. - A notable announcement from Heng Rui Medicine involved a potential license-out collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) worth up to $12.5 billion, covering a clinical-stage respiratory innovation drug and up to 11 non-clinical candidates. This news led to a surge in Heng Rui's stock, reaching a four-year high in A-shares and over 16% increase in H-shares [2]. ETF Performance - The top-performing ETFs included several innovation drug-related funds, with multiple ETFs achieving gains above 3.70% [1]. - Conversely, the energy sector faced declines, with the top ETF, the Sci-Tech Comprehensive Aluminum ETF (589300), dropping by 14.01% [3]. Trading Activity - The trading volume for the Short-term Bond ETF (211360) was the highest at 33.9 billion yuan, followed by the Silver Hua Daily ETF (511880) at 21.0 billion yuan [4]. - The turnover rate for the Benchmark National Bond ETF (511100) was the highest at 552.67%, indicating strong trading activity in this segment [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market showed mixed performance at midday, with certain ETFs experiencing significant gains while others faced notable declines [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750) led the gains with an increase of 2.57% [1] - The Innovative Drug ETF Tianhong (517380) rose by 2.11% [1] - The Pharmaceutical ETF (562050) saw an increase of 2.10% [1] - Conversely, the Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF Jiashi (589300) experienced a significant drop of 14.61% [1] - The Energy and Chemical ETF (159981) declined by 3.98% [1] - The Coal ETF (515220) fell by 2.96% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed may be patient in cutting interest rates due to strong economic data, and the progress of tariff negotiations has made the trade situation clearer, leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The progress of US - EU trade negotiations has boosted global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the introduction of stable - growth policies for ten major industries have boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals may fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as hydropower, liquor, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Although economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and stable - growth policies have boosted risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term, paying attention to correction risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to rebound last Friday, but the night - session prices fluctuated. The sharp decline in coking coal prices led to a correction in the steel market. Real - world demand remains weak, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the decline in hot - rolled coil production. There may be production restrictions around the September 3 parade, and the short - term supply increase is limited. It is advisable to treat the steel market as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected last Friday. The weekly iron - water output decreased slightly, and the room for further growth in iron ore demand is limited. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. The supply of medium - grade powder in ports is sufficient, the block - ore resources are concentrated, and the supply of low - grade powder has been supplemented. The global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 122 tons week - on - week, but the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines increased significantly. The port inventory increased slightly. It is advisable to treat the iron - ore price as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, and tariffs are generally easing. The US economy remains resilient, but the manufacturing industry is weakening, while the eurozone manufacturing industry is stabilizing. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term stable - growth plans are sentimentally positive for copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, and Comex copper inventories are approaching 250,000 short tons [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with a slight increase in domestic social inventories and a significant increase in LME inventories. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document has boosted market sentiment, the actual impact is expected to be limited. It is advisable not to short for the time being and wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased to 55.51%, and the supply of tin mines is expected to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be suppressed in the medium term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The exchange has restricted the position of the LC2509 contract, and the commodity sentiment has declined. There are many supply - side disturbances under the "anti - involution" background. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after the correction. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 48.6%. The price of imported lithium ore has rebounded, and the social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory have increased [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" market has driven the futures and spot prices of industrial silicon above the full cost of the main low - cost area, but there are inventory and supply pressures above. The demand for silicone has decreased due to a fault - shutdown. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term correction risks [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price remained stable last week, and the futures price had a high premium. The number of warehouse receipts increased. It is necessary to pay attention to the convergence of the basis. The inventory increased slightly, and the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry, the price of silicon wafers increased by 35% in July, and the production schedule decreased by 10% [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The recent driving force in the oil market is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening confidence in the US reaching an agreement with major trading partners have led to a slight decline in oil prices. The probability of the US and Europe reaching an agreement is 50%, which may threaten energy demand. The inventory is low, and the spot market has not shown obvious signs of weakness. The strengthening of the US dollar may continue to suppress priced commodities, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected with the sector and continued to fluctuate at a low level. The inventory has not shown obvious signs of depletion, and the overall demand is average. The basis has rebounded slightly, mainly due to the decline in the futures price. The social inventory is slightly accumulating. After the peak season, the market expectation will gradually decline. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil center, but the upside of the futures price is limited due to the inventory situation [15]. - **PX**: The short - term PTA operating rate remains high, and the tight supply situation of PX continues. The overseas price has risen to 874 US dollars, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has also risen to 293 US dollars. However, the PTA processing fee has dropped to a six - month low, which may lead to production cuts in leading plants. PX occupies too much industrial - chain profit, which may lead to downstream negative feedback risks. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside is not overly optimistic [15]. - **PTA**: The spot - trading volume is still declining, and some spot prices have weakened to a discount of 5 yuan to the main contract. The main - contract price has weakened with the futures market. The downstream operating rate remains low at 88.7%, and downstream production cuts still exist. The PTA processing fee has remained at a low level of around 150, which may lead to a reduction in the operating rate. The short - term inventory is slightly accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly to 54.4 tons, and the import volume has remained low. The coal - chemical products have risen slightly due to capacity - adjustment news. However, there is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance plants, the short - term downstream operating rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have not shown unexpected growth. The futures price has failed to break through the pressure level and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of crude oil has fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price has declined with the sector. The terminal orders are still average, and the operating rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, but more significant inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand stocking in August. The short - fiber price is expected to follow the polyester end in the medium term and can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: The coal - mine capacity - verification policy has pushed up coal prices, which has strengthened the support for methanol. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the market is overheated, and the short - term price is still strong. Fundamentally, the upside of methanol is limited by plant restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits. It is necessary to be vigilant against the expected difference near the Politburo meeting, and it is advisable to be cautiously long or wait and see for conservatives [16]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies such as "anti - involution", "chemical - plant assessment", and coal inspections, the PP price has rebounded, and the bullish market has continued. The short - term price is strong, but the futures price will face a pressure level, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see [17]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term macro - policies have boosted commodity prices, and polyethylene has followed the upward trend. In the medium and long term, the oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and downstream demand has weakened during the price increase. The import profit has increased significantly, which may lead to a worse - than - expected fundamental situation. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium and long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The impact of extreme heat in the US soybean - producing areas has decreased. Although the weekly crop - quality rate has slightly decreased, the hot and humid weather is generally beneficial to crop growth. US soybean exports have cooled down, and the news of direct domestic imports of South American soybean meal has weakened China's dependence on US soybeans. Currently, US soybeans are slightly under pressure, but the bullish market for soybean oil provides support. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US negotiations next week, which also provides phased support for US soybeans [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Since July, the production of Malaysian palm oil has progressed smoothly, the exports have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. Fundamentally, India has low oil inventories and high cost - performance, and there is an expectation of improved exports during the festival - stocking period. In the related market, crude oil has fluctuated, and the biodiesel policy has no room for fermentation. The domestic related oil fundamentals are under pressure, and the soybean - palm oil price has rebounded with the correction of palm oil, but the price inversion is still serious. In addition, the arrival of imported palm oil in China has increased, the spot circulation in the off - season is average, and it is close to the near - month import cost line. It is expected that the pressure of selling hedging at high prices may still exist. The palm - oil market is bullish, but the upside resistance has increased significantly. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The decline in US soybean and Brazilian export prices has led to a weak adjustment in the expectation of domestic long - term soybean imports. In addition, the increase in direct domestic imports of soybean meal and the reduction of soybean and soybean - meal export tariffs in Argentina have weakened the market's concern about the shortage of soybeans and soybean meal in the fourth quarter. The correction of the futures prices of the 01 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 has basically priced in the logic of cost decline and is anchored to the cost of direct - imported soybean meal for support. The negative news adjustment has ended, and it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the US soybean market in the next stage. It is expected that the soybean - meal price will stabilize in the short term. However, if the US soybean production - increase expectation remains stable, there may be a further expanding bearish market at the end of the crop - growth period in late August [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean - oil inventory pressure is prominent, the terminal consumption is still in the off - season, and the basis quotes in various regions have continued to weaken. Currently, the soybean - meal price has declined significantly, and the cost has not changed significantly. The soybean - meal price has received seesaw support in the short term. In addition, the fundamental expectation of related palm oil is also poor. Therefore, the soybean - palm oil price difference is expected to have a phased upward trend in the short term. For rapeseed oil, the domestic port inventory is high, the circulation is slow, and with the increase in direct - import channels for rapeseed and oil meal, the concern about future supply is fading. The preference of long - position funds is not high, and the weak - range market may continue [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Financial Futures - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable and move forward (weaker) this week. The Fed's independence is under "stress test", and the overall weak trend is expected to continue. The PBOC will likely adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + contingency", and the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling below 7 is increasing [2] - The stock index is expected to continue to be strong as market sentiment remains optimistic. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are relatively strong, and the trading volume of the two markets remains at a high level. The news is dull, and the long - position is recommended to hold and wait [3] - The freight rate of container shipping (European line) futures may continue to be volatile. The prices of mainstream shipping companies in August are still higher than those in July, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost trade, but the near - month contracts may fall again [5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are under pressure in the short term as equity assets perform well. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure. The callback buying strategy is recommended [6][8] Copper - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term. The rise of the non - ferrous metal sector is due to demand rather than supply, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise [10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Macro - level factors boost sentiment, and low inventory supports prices [12] - Alumina may fluctuate in the short term. The current supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight, and it may fall sharply when there is negative news [13][14] - Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for arbitrage [14] Zinc - Zinc is expected to fluctuate widely and may fall in the long term. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [16] Tin - Tin has strengthened slightly, and there are opportunities to sell on rallies. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and the upward pressure on prices is greater than the support [18] Carbonate Lithium - The futures market of carbonate lithium is active, but risks should be noted. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are volatile, and investors should pay attention to position risks. The market sentiment is strong, but there are risks on both the supply and demand sides [20][21] Lead - Lead is expected to fluctuate before the demand improves. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to continue to rise. The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum. The "anti - involution" policy has little impact on the supply side, and the current valuation is high [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. In the long term, the price increase may affect the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase. The demand in the peak season provides support, but the support is weakening. Next week's macro - level meetings may bring new guidance [36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is expected to be strong in the short term. The current fundamental driving force is limited, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The follow - up should focus on the Politburo meeting [39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG is expected to be strong. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [42] Methanol - It is recommended to wait and see for methanol. The market is affected by macro - level factors, and the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [44] PP - PP is driven up by macro - level sentiment but faces resistance. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up should focus on the demand recovery and policy progress [46] PE - PE is driven up by macro - level factors, and the spot is weak. The current inventory is accumulating, but the supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season [48] PVC - PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks when the production limit is unclear [50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment before the end - of - month meeting [51] Styrene - Styrene is affected by macro - level disturbances. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and focus on the end - of - month meetings [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt fluctuates with the cost. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment in the short term [55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash and glass remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact on soda ash, and the supply is stable, but the demand is weak. Glass is in a weak balance, and the inventory is still high [56][58] Log - Logs are expected to have low - volatility shocks. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high [59] Pulp - Pulp is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda rises with the market. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market [63] Oilseeds - It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts of oilseeds at low prices. The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation of India and other countries [64][65] Corn and Starch - Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate. There is no obvious positive news, and the growth of new - crop corn should be monitored [66] Cotton - Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory supports the price, but the terminal demand is weak in the off - season. The follow - up should focus on the import quota policy and inventory reduction [68] Sugar - Sugar maintains an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The international sugar price rises due to improved demand, and the domestic sugar price is stronger than the external market [69] Eggs - Eggs are recommended to be in an anti - spread position. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and the short - term price is strong [71] Summaries by Directory Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1547, up 63 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1385, up 29 basis points. The Fed's independence is under test, and the PBOC will balance exchange - rate flexibility and risk prevention [1][2] Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index rose collectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes reached new highs this year. The news is dull, and the market sentiment is optimistic, so it is expected to be strong [3] Container Shipping - The prices of container shipping (European line) futures fluctuated widely yesterday. The spot price of some shipping companies increased in August, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost the market [3][5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on Thursday. The Fed's "renovation gate" and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision affected the market. The long - term trend may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure [6] Copper - The Shanghai copper index fluctuated at a high level on Thursday. The development of emerging industries and the "anti - involution" policy may affect demand. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices fluctuated on Thursday. The "anti - involution" policy has limited impact on the fundamentals but boosts sentiment. The inventory is low, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12] - Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight. The price may be affected by macro - level sentiment and inventory [13][14] - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are arbitrage opportunities [14] Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel rose slightly on Thursday. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The follow - up should focus on the support of nickel - iron [16] Tin - The Shanghai tin index rose slightly on Thursday. The fundamentals are stable. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [18] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures limit - up on Thursday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported. The market is active, but risks should be noted [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures rose on Thursday, and the polysilicon futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot price of industrial silicon is strong, and the polysilicon price is stable. The market sentiment is strong, but risks should be noted [20][21] Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to fluctuate [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a strong - shock state. The "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. The supply side has little impact, and the current valuation is high. It is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. The short - term is easy to rise, and the long - term should consider the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US government may authorize Venezuelan oil partners, and the demand in the peak season provides support. It is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase [34][36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA prices rose slightly. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA supply is stable. The demand for polyester is weak, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term [37][38][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG prices are volatile. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the demand is weak. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [40][42] Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by macro - level factors. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [43][44] PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The macro - level sentiment drives the price up, but there is resistance [45][46] PE - PE prices rose. The supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season. The current inventory is accumulating, and the spot is weak [47][48] PVC - PVC prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price up, and the current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high [49][50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rose. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment [51] Styrene - Styrene prices rose. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. The short - term is affected by macro - level disturbances [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices rose. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The short - term is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment [54][55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, the supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high [56][57] - Glass prices rose. The supply is stable, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The short - term is strong, and the follow - up should focus on the policy and inventory [58] Log - Log prices fell slightly. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high. It is expected to have low - volatility shocks [59] Pulp - Pulp prices rose. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices rose. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market. It is recommended to be short on rallies [63] Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250724 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：全球关税路径趋明，中美下周重启谈判 海外方面，对等关税有所进展，①欧媒称美欧接近达成关税协议，拟设 15%基准税率、 部分行业豁免；②特朗普称将对多数国家征收 15%-50%关税，若主要国家开放市场，美国 愿意取消关税；③美中拟下周斯德哥尔摩会谈，争取 8 月 12 日前达成协议。美财长贝森特 称美联储预测带有政治偏见，特朗普再度施压鲍威尔，要求尽快降息，目前 9 月降息概率升 至 61%。随着多国关税路径逐步明朗，市场风险偏好上升，标普 500 再创新高，金价回调， 美元指数偏弱，铜价震荡收涨。当前美国基本面依然稳健，美联储独立性与关税博弈构成主 要不确定性来源，今日关注 7 月 PMI 数据。 国内：股市与商品市场情绪依旧积极，但多空博弈加剧，情绪或临近阶段性高点。A 股 冲高回落，两市成交维持 1.9 万亿，科创 50、上证 50 领涨，整体赚钱效应趋弱，内需商品 出现部分获利了结迹象。 ...

文字早评 2025/07/25 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、国务院总理李强将于 7 月 26 日出席在上海举行的 2025 世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级 别会议开幕式并致辞； 2、国务院国资委：优化国有资产增量投向，调整存量结构，带头抵制"内卷式"竞争，加强重组整合； 3、郑商所：近期影响玻璃、纯碱市场的不确定性因素较多 提醒投资者理性参与 合规交易； 4、价格法修正草案公开征求意见 规范市场价格秩序、治理"内卷式"竞争； 5、马斯克称特斯拉接下来可能面临几个艰难的季度，预计全年资本支出超过 90 亿美元，此前预计超过 100 亿美元； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.05%/-0.19%/-0.90%/-1.58%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.38%/-1.07%/-3.00%/-4.70%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.38%/-1.23%/-3.97%/-6.39%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.11%/0.15%/0.20%/0.20%。 消息方面：1、欧元区 7 月制造业 PMI 初值为 49.8，预期 49.7，前值 49.5；服务 ...