Core Insights - The city of Binzhou is recognized for its vibrant private economy, with notable achievements in various industries such as aluminum, cotton textiles, and metal sheet production [1] - Binzhou has implemented initiatives to support entrepreneurs, including the "Dreams of Entrepreneurs Action" program, which aims to facilitate business development through a structured support mechanism [2][3] - The city has established a unique platform for government-business communication through "Tea Events," fostering a collaborative environment for addressing business challenges [4][5][6] - Binzhou promotes a culture of recognition for entrepreneurs, hosting events like "Binzhou Entrepreneur Day" to honor outstanding business leaders and enhance the local business climate [7][8] Group 1 - Binzhou is home to 7 companies in the "Top 500 Private Enterprises in China," leading the province in total profits [1] - The city has supported over 1,125 entrepreneurial dreams with credit assistance exceeding 12.2 billion yuan, aiding 248 companies in land allocation [3] - The "Dreams of Entrepreneurs Action" program has created a closed-loop mechanism for addressing business needs, resulting in over 10,000 dreams reported through the online platform [2] Group 2 - The "Tea Events" have facilitated direct communication between government officials and entrepreneurs, resolving 423 out of 495 collected suggestions with an 85% satisfaction rate [6] - The events have led to significant technological advancements, such as the rapid development of high-strength aluminum alloy processes, benefiting over 50 upstream and downstream companies [5] - The city has hosted 100 "Tea Events" over three years, evolving into a distinctive brand for optimizing the business environment [5] Group 3 - Binzhou has launched the "Heart-Safe City" initiative, focusing on creating a supportive environment for businesses and their employees through various welfare programs [7][8] - The city has seen a 7.9% increase in fixed asset investment and a 13.2% rise in manufacturing investment from January to August [8] - The local government has implemented reforms to streamline services for businesses, including a "one-stop" service model and flexible enforcement policies [7][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is relatively optimistic, and there is support at the lower end of aluminum prices [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the macro sentiment at home and abroad is positive, providing price support for non - ferrous metals [66]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply will have a small increase, and the price will first rise and then fall, with the upper pressure at 22,000 and the lower support at 20,000. Attention should be paid to the demand - side support [68]. - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum alloy change little, and its price still fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [68]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The electrolytic aluminum price showed a three - stage trend in the current period. From January to mid - March, it oscillated upward due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, Trump's assumption of office, and pre - holiday stocking demand. From late March to early April, it oscillated downward as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation faded and concerns about Trump's tariff policy emerged. From mid - April to the present, it oscillated upward after the US tariff policy was implemented and counter - measures were taken in China, along with other factors like supply disturbances from Guinea's bauxite and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [6]. 2. Macro - aspect - The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and liquidity became more relaxed. The US economic data showed changes in employment, inflation, etc. The tariff impact was temporarily alleviated, and attention should be paid to the time point in November. China's anti - involution policy was advanced, and future inflation might stabilize and rebound [8][10][14]. 3. Fundamental Aspect Supply - side - **Bauxite**: In July, China's bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's supply was disturbed, but the impact was expected to be limited. The domestic port inventory was high, suppressing the transaction price. The bauxite price might have a seasonal correction but had support at 70 dollars/ton [18][22][24]. - **Alumina**: The supply was loose. In 2025, there was a large - scale new - investment capacity. Although some projects were postponed, there was still 440 million tons of new - investment capacity in the fourth quarter. The production capacity utilization rate was at a historical high, but there might be seasonal production cuts in winter in Shanxi and Henan [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In August, the production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In the fourth quarter, the production was expected to be about 11.283 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%, showing a stable operation [30]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the import volume of un - forged aluminum alloy hit a four - year low, mainly due to price inversion and the off - season of demand. The export volume increased year - on - year. The weekly inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy increased [59][60][64]. Demand - side - **Downstream Processing**: As of September 18, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% week - on - week, but decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Different sectors had different trends [31]. - **Export**: In August, China's export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [34]. - **New Energy**: In the photovoltaic field, the annual photovoltaic installation was expected to increase year - on - year, and the photovoltaic aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter was expected to decrease year - on - year but still maintain positive growth for the whole year. In the power grid field, the cable aluminum demand continued to grow, and it was expected to maintain high - growth in the fourth quarter [39]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The demand for aluminum in the automobile industry increased significantly, and new - energy vehicles were expected to drive aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter [46]. - **Real Estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. However, the new policies in first - tier cities might support the market demand, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [41]. Inventory - As of September 19, the inventory of SHFE electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, LME inventory increased, and COMEX inventory decreased slightly. The overall inventory was in a low position historically. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was expected to show a "slow de - stocking" pattern in the fourth quarter [48][51]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August and was expected to continue to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points week - on - week as of September 18, and it was expected to remain stable in September [54][57]. 4. Future Outlook - The macro - environment is favorable for non - ferrous metals. The bauxite price may have a seasonal correction but has support. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum price will first rise and then fall. The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price [66][68].

铝类产业日报 2025/9/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,705.00 0.00 | +20.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,907.00 -26.00 | +30.00↑ -6.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 221,314.00 | -4134.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 318,873.00 | -9337.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 111,200.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 174,191.00 | +8919.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 2,646.00 -6,257.00 | -9.00↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） +608.0 ...

盘面偏弱现货成交好转 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20680元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20660元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化30元/吨至-30元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20630元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-60元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-23日沪铝主力合约开于20700元/吨，收于20685元/吨，较上一交易日变化-85元/吨，最 高价达20735元/吨，最低价达到20655元/吨。全天交易日成交123298手，全天交易日持仓225448手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.8万吨，较上一期变化0.0吨，仓单库存68960 吨，较上一交易日变化-1801吨，LME铝库存513850吨，较上一交易日变化-50吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-23SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2960元/吨，山东价格录得2930元/吨，河南价格录得 3005元/吨，广西价格录 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The Fed's "preventive" interest rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out, and the previous loose trading of copper may end. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper price will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse this pattern in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market has a certain double - festival stocking demand, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the de - stocking inflection point has not yet arrived. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and the main contract reference range is 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of recycled aluminum is still tight, and the cost support is significant. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking demand provides phased support for the spot price. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward rush of Shanghai zinc. The upward continuous rebound requires the demand side to improve beyond expectations and the non - recession interest rate cut expectation to continue to improve. The downward breakthrough requires the TC to strengthen beyond expectations and the refined zinc to continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [6]. Tin - The supply side is relatively strong, which supports the tin price. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [8]. Nickel - The macro - atmosphere is weak, the mine - end disturbances increase but the actual impact is limited, and the cost still has support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. The medium - term supply is still loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term main contract reference range is 120000 - 125000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The macro - expectation has been digested, and the trading has returned to the fundamentals. The raw material price is firm, and the cost support still exists, but the peak - season demand of the downstream has not been realized as expected. The short - term disk is mainly in shock adjustment, and the main contract reference range is 12800 - 13200 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the news is calm. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate and sort out, and the main price center reference range is 70000 - 75000 [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80225 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the spot premium has decreased. The refined - scrap price difference has increased by 6.85% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.59% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20750 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss is - 1784 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.74 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions have increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21950 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss is - 3292 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 272000 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The import loss is - 12395.82 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 177 dollars/ton [9]. - **Cost of Electric Deposited Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electric deposited nickel is 117171 yuan/ton, down 1.15% month - on - month [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 171.33 tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 860 dollars/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is innovating green financial products to support the low-carbon transformation of traditional industries, specifically focusing on the aluminum and paper sectors [1][8]. Group 1: Aluminum Industry - The SHFE launched the first domestic recycled commodity futures and options for casting aluminum alloy on June 10, 2025, filling a gap in the financial derivatives market for recycled aluminum [3]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with a production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and a consumption of about 6.73 million tons in 2024 [2]. - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of casting aluminum alloy are only 3.6% of those from traditional electrolytic aluminum, aligning with the goal of producing over 15 million tons of recycled aluminum by 2027 [2]. - As of September 19, 2025, the trading volume for casting aluminum alloy futures reached 361,200 contracts, with a total transaction value of 71.52 billion yuan, indicating strong market engagement [3]. - Major companies in the aluminum sector are actively using the casting aluminum alloy futures for hedging, improving resource utilization and risk management [4]. Group 2: Paper Industry - The SHFE introduced the world's first financial derivatives for cultural paper, specifically for offset printing paper, on September 10, 2025, to facilitate the green transformation of the paper industry [5][6]. - In 2024, China is projected to produce 9.48 million tons of offset printing paper, with a market size nearing 50 billion yuan [6]. - The introduction of offset printing paper futures allows upstream paper manufacturers to hedge against price fluctuations in raw materials, thus enhancing product quality and reducing price wars [6][7]. - The contract design for offset printing paper incorporates green principles, prioritizing "green factories" for delivery and setting strict quality standards to promote environmental sustainability [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The SHFE aims to continue developing green financial products and optimizing services to support the low-carbon transition of industries, positioning these tools as stabilizers and accelerators for high-quality economic development [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation tendency. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December [5][11]. - The overall price of aluminum may be under pressure and oscillate. The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. It is advisable to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - **Variety Trading Strategy**: - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,800, and the resistance was about 21,400. Hold long positions with a light position [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Conduct short - term trading. Spot enterprises are recommended to increase inventory appropriately [8]. 3.2 Overall Viewpoints - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Recently, the price of Guinean bauxite has tightened seasonally due to the rainy - season shipping. After the rainy season ends, the ore price is expected to have a seasonal correction without unexpected events, but there is an obvious support at 70 US dollars/ton. In the fourth quarter, the domestic ore output will be marginally repaired, but the overall supply is difficult to improve significantly due to stricter environmental protection and supervision [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 12, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 86.23% (85.21% last week), which is at a high level since 2022. Since late August, the smelting profit has slightly declined. Now the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, and the operating rate is as high as 98%, with limited room for further production increase. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter only comes from 100,000 tons of Chalco Qinghai (transfer of Yunnan's quota) and a 250,000 - ton replacement project of Xinjiang Nongliushi Aluminum Industry. The net increase for the whole year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in 2025 is expected to be 43.96 - 44.5 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate dropping to 1.5% - 2.3%. The output in the fourth quarter may remain high but is difficult to increase significantly [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. Although the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, the overall resilience is still expected [9]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. The operating rate of construction profiles remains low, while industrial profiles have received more new orders recently in the traditional peak season of September, supporting the operating rate. Most enterprises have not determined the National Day holiday arrangements, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Shandong plan to take about 3 days off [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 68.2% this week. In the short term, the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises is expected to remain stable or oscillate upward. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 71.9%, and the slowdown of leading enterprises is obvious. In the short term, supported by the peak - season effect, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises is expected to oscillate between 72% - 75% [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remained stable at 65.2% this week. All leading manufacturers are busy. As the National Day holiday approaches, the purchasing intensity of downstream manufacturers is expected to increase further, and the operating rate is expected to rise slowly next week [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 57.4% this week, and the industry's production capacity release has slightly converged. Although the industry's operating rate is oscillating and adjusting in the short term, SMM still has an optimistic expectation for the peak season. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 55.9% this week, mainly benefiting from the alleviation of raw material procurement pressure and the moderate recovery of orders. The short - term industry operating rate will maintain a slight upward trend, but raw material shortages and policy factors will continue to suppress the capacity recovery elasticity [10]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 640,000 tons, an increase of about 3% from last week and about 14% lower than the same period last year, continuing the inventory - building trend since mid - July. This week's inventory increase is mainly due to the decrease in warehouse shipments, but the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased. The increase in electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to be limited in the near future. The aluminum rod inventory is 130,200 tons, basically stable compared with last week and about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory has risen again, continuing the inventory - building pattern since the end of June. As there are signs of the Russia - Ukraine war ending through negotiations, the previous market's hidden inventory is gradually becoming explicit, and the LME inventory is still likely to accumulate in the future [10][16]. - **Alumina**: The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants. The port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,840 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week) [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week). The profit is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. - **Personal View**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. The aluminum price may still be under pressure and consolidate in the coming week. The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900 [11]. - **Key Concerns**: 1. Changes in domestic social inventory. 2. Whether there are disturbances at the Guinean ore end. 3. The implementation of China's anti - involution - related policies [11]. 3.3 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices remained stable. As the rainy season in Guinea is approaching recovery and there are frequent policy - related disturbance news, and the long - term contract price in the fourth quarter has not been finalized, the increase in the supply of imported bauxite has become the focus of the market. Coal prices rose slightly, driven by pre - holiday stocking. Under strict current production capacity control, the pit - mouth price is resistant to decline. Seasonally, the single - electricity price in Yunnan is about 0.382 yuan, and it is more likely to rise in October. This week, the alumina price continued to decline slightly. Due to oversupply and inventory accumulation, the spot price is under pressure [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic port bauxite inventory slightly rebounded, continuing to accumulate to a recent high since the beginning of 2025 and stabilizing at a high level after August. However, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants is still increasing. According to DISR's forecast, the export volume of Australian bauxite is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, while the port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry this week is about 2,840 yuan/ton, the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical import profit of alumina is about 150 yuan/ton (120 yuan/ton last week); the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17,200 yuan/ton (about 17,500 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week) [18]. - **Downstream Processing**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating of leading primary alloy enterprises is stable, but small and medium - sized enterprises' operating rates have adjusted due to demand fluctuations; the operating rate of sampled aluminum sheet enterprises decreased slightly this week; the operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable; the operating rate of profiles increased slightly, mainly because industrial profiles are supported by orders from the automotive and photovoltaic industries; the demand for packaging foil is rigid but has limited growth; the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry increased slightly. The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [22][23]. 3.6 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. 3.7 Spread Structure - This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,040 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,940 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current spread has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. 3.8 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: After remaining stable for the previous four weeks, the net long position of funds in the latest period has significantly increased, mainly related to the Fed's interest rate cut in September. According to the dot - plot, there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the overall market is still bullish [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract slightly declined, and both the long and short camps slightly reduced their positions; the net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation slightly reduced. The funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises changed from a slight net long position to a slight net short position and have been in a stalemate between long and short recently. Judging from the performance of the current main funds, the market may oscillate and be under pressure in the coming week [41].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The impact of rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reason and macro - background. The previous loose trading may end, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the short - term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend, and the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price was volatile last week. The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand pull from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection point [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price declined last week. The cost support is significant, and the demand is in a mild recovery. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The import TC is rising steadily, and the supply side is expected to be loose. The demand side shows differentiation at home and abroad. The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates in September. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000. Attention should be paid to the tin ore import from Myanmar [9]. Nickel - The nickel price was volatile last week. After the Fed's rate cut, the macro - sentiment was digested. There is no obvious change in the spot transaction of refined nickel. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 120,000 - 125,000, and attention should be paid to the macro - expectation and ore news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price declined slightly last week. The raw material price is firm, but the peak - season demand has not been realized. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill dynamics and peak - season demand [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price was volatile last week. The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained at 79,990 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper's premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton, with a 6.70% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.18 million tons to 72.45 million tons, with a 4.59% increase [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 209 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - new spreads in different regions increased, with the largest increase of 2.43% in the Foshan profile aluminum scrap - new spread [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 15.17 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing starting rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 58.05% [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 269,300 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 tin premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 122,750 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 179 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons, with a 2.07% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,100 yuan/ton. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.60 million tons to 47.20 million tons, with a 1.26% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 858 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [15].