1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions shows a pattern of "looser supply expectation and weaker actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by the supply tightness expectation of bauxite in Guinea and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts. However, the high - capacity operation situation remains unchanged, and the market is slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 this week. For aluminum, although the domestic consumption stimulus supports the price, the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. The price of the main contract is expected to face pressure at high levels this week, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the output growth rate of domestic mines in June fell short of expectations, which supports the price. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand is marginally weak. In the long - term, if the mine growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the price center may move down. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Short - term macro fluctuations are large, and previous high - level short positions should be held [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level nickel - iron price weakens the cost support, the supply - side production cut is less than expected, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk will fluctuate, with the main contract running between 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the excess supply may intensify. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract running between 63,000 - 68,000, while there is still downward risk in the medium - term [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The premium/discount was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount dropped to 1,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.50% [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) dropped to - 2070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 168.83% [20]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Copper**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 50 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 was 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was - 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Tin**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina output was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. In May, the import volume was 250,500 tons, and the export volume was 10,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. In May, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 97,000 tons, and the export volume was 24,200 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc output was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, and the export volume was 1,400 tons [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin output was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 125,100 tons, and the export volume was 436,300 tons [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [20].

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated July 13, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to adjust monetary policy in autumn, with a high probability of rate cuts. China's manufacturing PMI has been rising for two consecutive months, and consumer goods manufacturing is growing steadily. Although PPI decline has widened, prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. In the nickel market, refined nickel is in a supply - surplus situation, the shortage of nickel ore supply has eased, sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel is in a weak oscillation, and the improvement of medium - and long - term demand needs further data verification. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel main contract is 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Focuses on the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, presenting the historical closing prices of nickel futures main contracts from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines into China, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Shows the price trends of domestic and imported 1 electrolytic nickel (Ni99.90) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price - Presents the average price trends of sulfuric acid nickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [19][20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel Price, Futures Position, and Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory - **Stainless Steel Price**: Shows the closing price trends of stainless steel futures (continuous) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless Steel Futures Position**: Displays the position volume trends of stainless steel futures from 2020 - 2025, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 hands [23][24] - **Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory**: Presents the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel from 2020 - 2025, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production volume of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production volume in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] 3. Future Outlook - Based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline of PPI in June widened by 0.3 percentage points, but prices of some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36]

1. Copper Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Macroeconomically, the expected US tariff increase on copper is 50% to be implemented at the end of July. The 232 investigation weakens the logic of LME copper squeezing and US restocking. Fundamentally, there are still contradictions in copper mine supply, and demand has weakened at high copper prices. Global visible inventory, LME inventory, and Chinese social inventory are low, except for COMEX due to US restocking. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand". The negotiation of reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 78,000 [1]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 15 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. have decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.56 dollars/ton week - on - week. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and regenerated copper rod changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [1]. 2. Aluminum Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum price broke through the recent resistance level and reached a new high due to low warehouse receipts and inventory and short - term tightening of spot supply. Fundamentally, the alumina market will remain slightly oversupplied in July - August. The current aluminum price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectation, weak demand, and macro - disturbances, it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 20,800 [3]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,820 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also increased slightly. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed accordingly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of different aluminum products and inventories in different regions also changed [3]. 3. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the main contract is expected to operate between 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [4]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. Inter - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.9 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.10 million tons, up 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of different types of enterprises and inventories also changed [4]. 4. Zinc Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The zinc ore supply is in a long - term loose trend. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, but the improvement lags behind the ore end. The demand has weakened marginally. The low inventory provides price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter the inventory accumulation cycle. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loose cycle. The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 - 23,000. Attention should be paid to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month. The operating rates of different zinc processing industries changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [8]. 5. Nickel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The nickel price rebounded, and the macro - sentiment eased. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose. The refined nickel cost support has loosened, and the medium - term supply is still loose, restricting the upward space of the price. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [10]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day. The prices and costs of different nickel products and related indicators such as LME 0 - 3, import profit and loss, etc. changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [10]. 6. Tin Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The actual tin ore supply remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and in the electronic consumption off - season. In the short term, there are large macro - disturbances. Hold the previous high - level short positions and pay attention to changes in US tariff policies [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 160.00% [14]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. changed significantly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% month - on - month, while SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month - on - month. Import and export volumes of refined tin and other data also changed [14]. 7. Stainless Steel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The stainless steel market is strong, but the spot trading is light. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the nickel - iron price is weak. The steel mill's production reduction is less than expected, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel mill production reduction schedules [15]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The inter - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [15]. 8. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated narrowly. The macro - situation has uncertainties. The supply of lithium carbonate is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable but difficult to boost significantly. The inventory is still at a high level. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 60,000 - 65,000. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 63,650 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The prices and spreads of different lithium products changed [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2507 - 2509, etc. decreased [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The demand, import, and export volumes, and inventories in different links also changed [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating strongly, basically recovering recent losses, with its fluctuations affected by the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the increase in the shipment volume of mines from the Philippines led to a certain decline in prices, but the subsequent downward space of ore prices was limited due to the disturbance of nickel ore quotas. The intraday transaction price of ferronickel stabilized, mainly affected by weak downstream demand, and was currently close to the conversion spread of high - grade nickel matte. The intraday trend of stainless steel was strong, but the spot reaction was limited, and there was no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. Currently, the tariff game between Indonesia and the United States increased the sentiment disturbance in the downstream of the nickel industry chain. The new energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. The subsequent focus should be on the impact of macro - tariffs and the trend of the non - ferrous market [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. 3.2 Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (sell 60% of Shanghai nickel main contracts), and sell call options (50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: If the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance, and sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in Congo continues; Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; The tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; The contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [4]. 3.4 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,140 yuan/ton, a 2% increase; trading volume decreased by 8.02% to 102,155 lots; open interest decreased by 9.74% to 65,815 lots; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 20,605 tons; the basis of the main contract was - 860 yuan/ton, a - 31.8% change [5]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,865 yuan/ton, a 1% increase; trading volume increased by 2.43% to 101,032 lots; open interest decreased by 2.76% to 85,345 lots; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 111,290 tons; the basis of the main contract was 300 yuan/ton, a - 18.92% change [6]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social inventory of nickel was 38,029 tons, an increase of 186 tons; LME nickel inventory was 204,738 tons, an increase of 1,176 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 978 tons, a decrease of 14.1 tons; ferronickel inventory was 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [7].

Group 1: Report Title and Team - Report title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Bottom Support is Loosening [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Management Strategy - Shanghai Nickel price range forecast: 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility 15.17%, historical percentile 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategy: When product sales price drops, short Shanghai Nickel futures (60% ratio, strategy level 2) and sell call options (50% ratio, strategy level 2) [2] - Procurement management strategy: When worried about raw material price rise, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts and sell put options according to production plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Shanghai Nickel shows weak and volatile intraday trend, affected by the non - ferrous market. Nickel ore price may decline due to increased Philippine shipments, but the decline space is limited. Nickel iron price stabilizes, close to the conversion spread of high - ice nickel. Pay attention to anti - dumping tax and major factory production cuts for stainless steel, and macro - tariff and non - ferrous market trends [3] Group 4:利多/利空解读 - Bullish factors: Congo cobalt mine ban continues, Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, Indonesia shortens nickel ore quota license period from three to one year [4] - Bearish factors: Stainless steel enters traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, nickel - iron industry chain contradiction deepens with surplus situation unchanged, and pure nickel inventory is high [4] Group 5: Daily Market Data Nickel - Latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract: 119,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts show declines. LME Nickel 3M at 15,015 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. Volume 111,063 lots, open interest 72,919 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.75% [6] Stainless steel - Latest price of stainless steel main contract: 12,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; continuous contracts show increases. Volume 98,636 lots, open interest 87,766 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.11% [7] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory: 38,029 tons, up 186 tons; LME nickel inventory: 203,562 tons, up 942 tons; stainless steel social inventory: 978 tons, down 14.1 tons; nickel pig iron inventory: 37,534 tons, up 2,924 tons [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The short - term trading core drivers are the US copper tariff rate and its implementation time. If the 50% tariff rate is implemented at the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired by "COMEX copper price rising + LME copper price falling". If the implementation is delayed, LME copper price will be supported by arbitrage trading. The reference range for the main contract is 76,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2,850 - 3,150. It is recommended to short on rallies. For electrolytic aluminum, the current high - level price is expected to face pressure in the short - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, zinc price is weakening. Pay attention to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle [8]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - policy guidance and short - term disturbances from the news [11]. Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large. Pay attention to changes in US tariffs, and continue to hold previous high - level short positions [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the rhythm of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 60,000 - 65,000. Observe the performance of funds around 65,000 and pay attention to macro risks [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11% [1]. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.30% [1]. - In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - In June, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.49% [4]. - In June, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,040 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.50% [8]. - In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 5.36% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 121,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 10.04% [11]. - The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 10,325 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 116.90% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 264,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97% [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 3,288 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 36.39% [14]. - SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.37% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.83% [16]. - The stainless - steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 12.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 6,010 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 8.34% [18]. - In June, the lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 145 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.15% [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, with geopolitical risks, trade policies, and economic data all playing significant roles. Different commodities show various trends due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic environments [2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price movements are characterized by oscillations, affected by both positive and negative factors. Some commodities may experience short - term price increases or decreases based on specific events and data [4][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Overseas: The US Senate passed the "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, and it awaits final approval in the House. Trump may reach a trade agreement with India but is skeptical about Japan, hinting at a potential increase in tariffs on Japanese imports to 30% - 35% from 24%. The US job openings in May reached a new high since November last year, and Powell suggested a "wait - and - see" approach [2]. - Domestic: President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, emphasizing the promotion of a unified market and the development of the marine economy. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded to 50.4, returning to the expansion range. Stocks and bonds both rose, but the A - share market lacked a clear main line [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.28% to $3349.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.20% to $36.25 per ounce. Trade concerns, potential Fed rate cuts, and Middle - East geopolitical risks drove safe - haven funds into the precious metals market. However, the short - term sustainability of the price rebound is uncertain [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper showed an upward trend. The Shanghai copper main contract broke through, and the London copper price approached the $10,000 mark. The US manufacturing was in a downturn with inflation expectations rising. Globally, the shortage of concentrates and low inventory levels, along with expanding application areas, are expected to drive copper prices into a short - term oscillatory upward trend [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum showed a positive trend. The weakening US dollar index and low warehouse receipts supported the price. However, the market should also pay attention to the impact of the Senate's passage of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill and the upcoming July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina futures showed a preference for oscillatory movement. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline, and the spot market had limited supply increments. The short - term price is expected to maintain a preference for oscillatory movement [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc declined slightly. Overseas refineries resumed production, and the supply disturbance weakened. Although downstream buying improved, the short - term fundamentals remained weak, and the price returned to a weakening trend [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead declined slightly. The supply of primary and recycled lead refineries is expected to recover in July, while consumption has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. Tin - The price of tin showed a compensatory movement. The fundamentals were not significantly changed, with low trading volume. The supply and demand were both weak, and the high - price tin faced pressure [16]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon faced resistance in its rebound. It was in the off - season with weakening demand. The supply side was generally weak, and the demand side in the photovoltaic industry was also lackluster. The short - term price is expected to enter a weak adjustment phase [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate declined. The market sentiment cooled down, and the downstream replenishment ended. Although the cathode production in July may exceed expectations, the supply also increased, and high inventory may drag down the price [19][20]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The US economic data was mixed, and the cost side showed signs of loosening. The short - term fundamentals had no improvement, and the price oscillated [21][22]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil oscillated. Geopolitical risks and industry logic were intertwined. Although the geopolitical heat decreased, the conflict was not completely over, and the supply side maintained a high - growth expectation [23]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures price rebounded slightly. The market was affected by the news of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply side's production was stable at a low level, and the demand side was weak due to high - temperature weather. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price oscillated and adjusted. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the supply pressure remained due to high overseas shipments. The demand for iron ore had some resilience, but the production of molten iron was expected to decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate under pressure [26]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The US soybean crushing volume in May was 6.11 million tons, and the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks was normal. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather changes, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - US trade progress [27][28]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price may oscillate. The production of Malaysian palm oil in June slowed down, and the export demand in Indonesia increased in May. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and the CL spread. The shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains slightly oversupplied in the short term, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices may rebound, but the zinc fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended [8]. Nickel - The nickel market has improved macro - sentiment, but the cost support of refined nickel has loosened. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina output was 7.2721 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.729 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot output was 606,000 tons, down 0.66% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 261,000 tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc output was 549,400 tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume was 28,200 tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,600 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The futures - spot spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 16.00% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) in April was 1.7912 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume was 125,100 tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 59,700 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel had a certain correction. Currently, there is still support from the ore price. Attention should be paid to whether the nickel ore benchmark price and premium will decline due to the market. In the short - term, only the nickel ore supports the bottom space. The ferronickel price is still falling but is close to the low - valuation range, with limited further decline space. The bottom support of stainless steel has stabilized. There is news that Tsingshan will cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, and spot - end transactions have improved. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment due to the disturbance of the Congo cobalt mine, and the downstream acceptance has also increased. It still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. Future focus is on the production - cut intensity and whether the inventory improves [3] - On the positive side, there is still support from the nickel ore price at the cost end, the cobalt mine ban in Congo continues, and Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons. On the negative side, stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction, the contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged, and the pure nickel inventory is high [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategy - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a current volatility historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% using the Shanghai nickel main contract; also, sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts; sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options; buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options [2] 3.2 Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data - Nickel disk: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 118,600 yuan/ton, 118,670 yuan/ton, 118,830 yuan/ton, and 118,960 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.88%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M is at 14,905 US dollars/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume is 76,394 lots, down 20.49%; the open interest is 36,302 lots, down 30.20%; the warrant number is 21,359 tons, down 1.03%; the basis of the main contract is - 790 yuan/ton, up 7.5% [6] - Stainless steel disk: The latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,470 yuan/ton, and 12,415 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.80%, 0.81%, and 0.85%. The trading volume is 175,419 lots, down 16.10%; the open interest is 159,994 lots, down 13.94%; the warrant number is 112,867 tons, down 0.32%; the basis of the main contract is 530 yuan/ton, down 8.62% [7] 3.3 Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 38,223 tons, down 1,160 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 204,360 tons, up 432 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons, up 1.8 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons, up 3,148 tons [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].