Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights the focus on opportunities in the segmented development of the Chinese consumer sector, with expectations of recovery driven by relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] Group 1: Consumer Sector Outlook - The outlook for the Chinese consumer sector emphasizes the recovery of high-end consumption, supported by favorable monetary policies and market conditions [1] - Credit Lyonnais predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, allowing companies to capture opportunities in market segmentation and global expansion [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - The report identifies three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] - The firm also suggests monitoring the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) [1] Group 3: Industry-Specific Predictions - Credit Lyonnais forecasts a 3% to 4% year-on-year growth in China's sportswear retail sales for the coming year, attributing this to major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth in the next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelers' sales are still anticipated to be affected [1] - In the collectible toy segment, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP developments beyond Labubu [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese consumer sector is expected to focus on opportunities in niche markets and high-end consumption, benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] - The report predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, with companies poised to capture opportunities in market scaling, globalization, and the recovery of high-end consumption [1] - The report highlights three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] Group 2 - The forecast for China's sports apparel retail sales is a year-on-year growth of 3% to 4% for next year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while product price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelry sales volume is still expected to be affected [1] Group 3 - In the collectible toy sector, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP development beyond Labubu [1] - Investors are also advised to pay attention to the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (01880) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights the focus on opportunities in the segmented development of the Chinese consumer sector, with high-end consumption benefiting from monetary policy easing, stock market improvements, and increased offshore financing [1] Group 1: Consumer Sector Outlook - The Chinese retail sales of sports apparel are expected to grow by 3% to 4% year-on-year in the coming year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry in China is projected to achieve low to mid-single-digit growth next year [1] Group 2: Specific Company Recommendations - Credit Lyonnais identifies Anta Sports, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Samsonite as the top three stock picks in the consumer sector [1] Group 3: Jewelry Market Insights - In the gold and jewelry sector, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the second half of 2025, and while price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelers' sales may still be impacted [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on the first day of December, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.34%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.21% [1] - Major technology stocks mostly saw gains, while copper prices reached a new high, leading to a strong performance in copper stocks. Other sectors such as aluminum, gold, heavy infrastructure, domestic real estate, and automotive stocks were also active, whereas gas, home appliance, and building materials stocks declined [1] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong continued to rise, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index increasing by 1.54% and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) gaining over 1% [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities expressed a positive outlook on consumer investment opportunities, highlighting two categories: 1) New consumption opportunities in trendy toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current trends of personalized and self-indulgent consumption, and benefit from the cultural export atmosphere [2] - The second category focuses on cyclical sectors, suggesting that if consumer stimulus policies continue and the economy gradually recovers, companies in the white wine, restaurant, and travel sectors will see favorable market conditions [2] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing leading companies in various consumer sectors, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, as well as e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting a strong tech-consumer attribute [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector showed strong fluctuations, with the Hong Kong consumer ETF (513230) rising over 1% [1] - Leading stocks included Lao Pu Huang Jin, which surged nearly 5%, and Tongcheng Travel, which increased by approximately 3.5% [1] - Other notable gainers were Alibaba, Chow Tai Fook, Shenzhou International, Smoore International, and China Resources Beer, while Xiaomi Group, Miniso, Mixue Group, and Li Auto experienced declines [1] Group 2 - Mixue Ice City has introduced a "breakfast series" in select cities, including Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou, featuring products priced at 5 yuan [1] - The breakfast initiative is seen as an attempt to leverage the supply chain and expand consumption scenarios, reflecting a trend towards all-day operations in the new tea beverage and restaurant sectors [1] - This move may encourage more brands to explore category extensions and expand their operational scenarios [1] Group 3 - Zhongyou Securities remains optimistic about consumer investment opportunities, highlighting two categories: new consumption opportunities and cyclical recovery plays [2] - New consumption opportunities include sectors like trendy toys, gold and jewelry, and new tea beverages, which align with current consumer trends towards personalization and cultural export [2] - Cyclical recovery plays focus on sectors such as liquor and travel, which may benefit from ongoing consumer stimulus policies and economic recovery [2]

Summary of FOSUN International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: FOSUN International - **Industry**: Diversified Investments, Pharmaceuticals, Insurance, Consumer Goods Key Points Strategic Transformation - FOSUN International is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on core businesses and exiting non-core assets, aiming to increase overseas revenue contribution to 60% and significantly reduce debt levels, targeting interest-bearing liabilities below 60 billion RMB and public market debt to 25% [2][6][3] Business Segments - **Domestic Business**: - Focus on consumer sectors, including gold jewelry and cultural tourism through Yuyuan [4] - Innovation in pharmaceuticals represented by FOSUN Pharma [4][5] - **Overseas Business**: - Key investments in Portuguese insurance and consumer brands like Club Med, contributing to nearly 30% of total overseas revenue [4][10] Financial Goals - Plans to reduce interest-bearing debt from a peak of 120 billion RMB to 89 billion RMB, with a further target of 60 billion RMB [6] - Aiming to restore group operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders to 10 billion RMB, while gradually increasing the dividend payout ratio from 20% to 50% over the next 3-5 years [6][13] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - FOSUN Pharma is accelerating its transition to innovative drugs, with expectations for rapid growth post-2027, supported by a global R&D center and innovative drug platform [2][9] - Currently, there are multiple innovative drugs in the pipeline with global sales potential between 5 billion to 10 billion USD [9] Geographic Risk Management - The company employs a strategy combining globalization with local operations to mitigate geopolitical risks, particularly in Europe and North America [7][11] - In Europe, the Portuguese insurance business is expected to maintain a premium income growth rate of 10%-15% over the next five years, with significant profit growth potential due to low current ROE [10] Asset Disposal Strategy - FOSUN International has identified approximately 90 billion to 100 billion RMB worth of assets for disposal, including real estate and non-core investments, aiming to generate cash flow to reduce debt [12] - Specific assets include real estate valued at around 30 billion RMB and non-core secondary market holdings [12] Dividend Policy - The company plans to gradually increase its dividend payout ratio to enhance shareholder returns, with a target of achieving 10 billion RMB in operating profit [13] Competitive Position in Pharmaceuticals - FOSUN Pharma is transitioning from generics to innovative drugs, with significant investments in R&D and a focus on global commercialization capabilities [14][15] - The company is committed to maintaining a competitive edge through substantial annual investments in innovation and development [15] Real Estate Disposal Insights - The company evaluates real estate project sales based on market conditions and potential for appreciation, indicating a flexible pricing strategy [16]

12 月投资展望：蓄势而跃 20251130 摘要 消费市场基本面已触底，预计 2026 年消费将呈现低速增长，CPI 改善 程度将是关键。成长股加速下跌反映资金抛弃，短期内防御策略占优， 但调整充分的成长股明年或成首选，如白酒企业古井贡酒、山西汾酒、 泸州老窖等。 化妆品行业整体或逊于今年，但头部公司如若雨臣、毛戈平和尚美增长 预期乐观。跌幅较大的登康口腔、润门股份和珀莱雅亦值得关注。旅游 出行板块前景良好，受益于假期制度改革，推荐携程、同程、亚朵、华 住、锦江、首旅以及峨眉山、长白山和三峡旅游。 黄金珠宝行业短期仍受价格主导，销量承压，关注提价能力强或直营模 式企业。金条业务或受益于税改，推荐老凤祥、金菜百股份、六福集团 与周大福。新消费领域景气度高，关注潮玩、新兴国潮珠宝及相关电商， 如泡泡玛特、积木科技与名创优品。 家电行业个别股票筑底，与大盘相关性高。12 月排产降幅大，但与去年 同期高基数有关。关注龙头企业美的，其市占率稳定且分红预期良好。 推荐安孚科技，其充电宝业务有望带来额外收入增长。 目前拖累 CPI 的主要因素是猪肉价格和部分农产品价格，但整体价格水平已有 所回升。若 PPI 能略微回升， ...

在过去的一年里，黄金市场呈现出前所未有的双热景象。一方面，金价一路攀升，屡次突破历史纪录。 另一方面，在消费端，以"古法金"为代表的中式黄金异军突起，出现了一些受人追捧的品牌。从兰州走 出来的「琳朝珠宝」，便是其中之一。 36氪独家获悉，黄金手工艺术品牌「琳朝珠宝」已完成亿元级战略投资，独家投资方为日初资本。本轮 投资将用于产品创新、品牌升级、渠道建设及生产基地建设。 「琳朝珠宝」成立于2006年，创始人马朝贤与黄金的羁绊开始得更早。早在 1977 年他出生之前，家里 就做了多年黄金加工，其童年，是在作坊里听着父亲叮叮当当敲打黄金声中度过的。 在相当长的时间里，琳朝的声量偏居一隅，生意半径局限在兰州本地。直到2020年，受疫情影响，琳朝 转向线上直播，品牌知名度轰然大开。马朝贤对此并不意外，"我每时每刻都坚信，只要让更多人知道 琳朝，它就一定会爆发。" 虽然只有一家线下门店，年营收却能实现数倍增长，截至2025年11月，琳朝年销售额已突破5亿元大 关。 但爆火现象的背面，是品牌订单应接不暇、产品供不应求的局面。而造就这种"稀缺性"的根本原因，在 于琳朝对极致手工艺的坚持。在工业化量产成为主流的今天，琳朝反其道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry, particularly focusing on the gold and jewelry sector [1]. Core Insights - The demand for gold and jewelry is expected to recover significantly, driven by a stable increase in gold prices since 2025 and a rebound in overall consumer spending [1][14]. - Major listed companies in the gold and jewelry sector are currently valued at historically low levels, with strong cash flow quality and dividend capabilities, making them attractive investment opportunities [1][14]. - Key recommended stocks include Zhou Dasheng, Lao Fengxiang, Chao Hong Ji, Cai Bai Co., China Gold, and Hong Kong stocks such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings [1][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant recovery in the performance of leading Hong Kong gold and jewelry companies, Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, in FY26H1, with Chow Tai Fook reporting revenue of HKD 38.986 billion (down 1.1% YoY) and net profit of HKD 2.534 billion (up 0.1% YoY) [5][10]. - Luk Fook Holdings achieved revenue of HKD 6.843 billion (up 25.6% YoY) and net profit of HKD 619 million (up 42.52% YoY) in the same period [5][10]. - The same-store sales for both companies in mainland China showed significant recovery, with Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales up 2.6% YoY in FY26H1 [11]. Profitability - The increase in gold prices and adjustments in product mix have positively impacted profitability, with Chow Tai Fook maintaining a gross margin of 30.5% and Luk Fook achieving a record high gross margin of 34.7% [12][12]. - Both companies have shown improvements in their expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [12]. Market Trends - The report notes that the gold price has been on a stable upward trend since 2025, which consumers have adapted to, leading to an anticipated rapid release of terminal consumption demand in 2026 [14]. - The report emphasizes that the tax reform in November is expected to benefit compliant gold and jewelry brands by increasing market concentration [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming overseas sales peak for Pop Mart, driven by its IP influence, with participation in major events like the Thanksgiving parade enhancing brand visibility [4] - The cosmetics collection store channel is gradually recovering, with Naturals leading in both overall and domestic rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-care products [4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase, with the beauty care index up by 0.50%, retail index up by 3.45%, and social services index up by 3.92% during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 6.3%, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][18] - The average sales per store in the cosmetics collection channel grew by 1.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 9.4% [4] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and leading brands in ancient gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [16] - In the collectible toy sector, attention should be given to companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, such as Pop Mart [16] - For ready-to-drink tea, consider strong brands with extensive market coverage, like Mixue Group and Guming [16]