Report Overview - Date: August 19, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The origin has a prosperous supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2][6] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2][7] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][12] - **Soybean One**: It will fluctuate [2][12] - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - **Sugar**: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][20] - **Cotton**: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2][25] - **Eggs**: The long - term outlook is weak [2][30] - **Pigs**: The spot market remains weak [2][32] - **Peanuts**: The near - term is strong, and the long - term is weak [2][38] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,534 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase and a night - closing price of 9,620 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change and a night - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions also had corresponding changes [7] - **News**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and the expected export volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil is 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean One - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean one 2511 had a daily - closing price of 4044 yuan/ton with no change, and DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - closing price of 3155 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different quotes [12] - **News**: On August 18, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the same as last week [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean one have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices such as the Northeast acquisition average price, Jinzhou closing price, etc. remained unchanged. The futures contracts C2509 and C2511 had different price changes and trading volume and position changes [15] - **News**: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.24 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main price was 5672 yuan/ton [20] - **News**: Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar import and production data in different periods were also provided [20][21][22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 had a daily - closing price of 14,125 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. The spot prices of different cotton types in different regions had small increases [25] - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading improved slightly, and the cotton yarn market trading also improved slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season [26] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [27] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 decreased. The spot prices of eggs in different regions had different changes [30] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [30] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13780 yuan/ton, 13550 yuan/ton, and 14990 yuan/ton respectively. The futures prices of different contracts also decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: In August, the group's planned slaughter volume increased, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract were given [36] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1 [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices of peanuts in different regions remained unchanged. The futures contracts PK510 and PK511 had small price decreases [38] - **Spot Market**: The new peanut trading in different regions had different situations, and the new peanuts were expected to be listed in late September [39] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has been performing strongly recently. The US soybean market is expected to have stronger support and may rise further if there is positive news. The South American market has limited short - term pressure, and the prices in Brazil and Argentina are generally firm [4]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market still faces significant pressure due to high soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates. The supply is expected to remain loose, and inventory pressure is likely to persist. The domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly due to policy factors and is expected to remain strong if policies do not change much [4][5]. - The trading strategies include a bullish stance for single - sided trading, M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International Market**: The US soybean futures market has been strong due to the bullish monthly supply - demand report. In South America, Brazil's soybean prices have risen slightly despite a small decline after the US soybean price increase. Argentina's soybean prices are also firm, and so are the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in both countries [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market has high pressure with abundant supply and limited demand improvement. The domestic rapeseed meal has increased significantly because of policy - related restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bullish single - sided trading approach, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market has been strong due to the monthly supply - demand report. Although the yield per acre was raised, the planting area was significantly reduced, tightening the new - crop supply. The old - crop crush was also increased by 1 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels, with high uncertainty. The US soybean may rebound in the short - term, and the support at the lower level is strong [9][11]. - **South American Markets**: In Brazil, soybean export prices have slightly declined, but the overall price has increased due to the US soybean price increase. The monthly supply - demand report slightly raised production, exports, and crush. The selling progress of farmers has improved, and the export target of 106 million tons is likely to be achieved. In Argentina, soybean prices are firm, and the pressure on exports has decreased [14]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures market has been strong due to cost - side factors, but the spot market has high pressure. The oil mill operating rate has increased due to sufficient soybean supply, and the demand has changed little. The inventory remains high, and the futures spread is expected to weaken [17]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures market has risen significantly due to the policy decision to impose a deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports after an anti - dumping investigation. The market may remain strong if imports from Canada are completely stopped [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crush, and weekly crush profits. It also presents Brazil's monthly soybean exports and crush, Argentina's soybean exports and monthly crush, and foreign soybean basis prices [24][27][29]. - **Macro - factors**: Exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are involved, as well as international shipping freight rates. The freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have all decreased slightly [37][42]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import and weekly crush of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [48]. - **Demand**: The data shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in China [51]. - **Inventory**: The data shows the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal in China [55].

每经AI快讯，当地时间8月18日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大 豆期货跌0.19%报1040.50美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.31%报406.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.47%报 524.50美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on August 18, with fluctuations in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Raw sugar futures decreased by 1.22%, closing at 16.24 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures increased by 0.44%, closing at 67.84 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 0.59%, closing at $8,229.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures rose by 0.97%, closing at 337.45 cents per pound [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: The USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous import corn auctions in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and upcoming bulk listing of spring corn suppress the bullish sentiment in the spot market. The market trading activity is poor, and feed enterprises' consumption enthusiasm is low. Most deep - processing enterprises replenish stocks based on supply and demand. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures market is in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - **Corn Starch**: As previously - overhauled enterprises resume production, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has increased, leading to greater supply - side pressure. The downstream demand is still in the off - season with poor order - taking and sales. The supply exceeds demand. The inventory has increased, and the futures market shows a weak trend, also suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Domestic**: Corn futures' active - contract closing price is 2177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; corn starch futures' active - contract closing price is 2594 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn decreased by 28,029 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn decreased by 2102 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged [2]. - **CBOT**: The closing price of CBOT corn futures is 405.75 cents/bushel, up 7.25 cents. The total position decreased by 67,625 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 25,206 contracts [2]. **Spot Market** - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2393.92 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The CIF price of imported corn is 1926.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory - quoted prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. **Upstream Situation** - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, Brazil 131 million tons, Argentina 53 million tons, China 295 million tons, and Ukraine 30.5 million tons. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: Corn inventories at southern ports decreased by 14.5 tons to 75.1 tons, and at northern ports decreased by 22 tons to 247 tons. The starch enterprise inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 133.2 tons [2]. - **Trade Volume**: The monthly import volume of corn decreased by 3 tons to 16 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch increased by 4.06 tons to 27.78 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - **Feed**: The monthly feed production increased by 175.6 tons to 2937.7 tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days decreased by 0.83 days to 29.61 days [2]. - **Deep - processing**: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn decreased by 2.4 tons to 114.06 tons. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased by 1.08% to 42%, and that of starch enterprises increased by 2.07% to 55.9% [2]. **Option Market** - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 3.48% to 5.89%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.73% to 5.89%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options on corn increased by 5.84% and 5.82% respectively to 21.26% and 21.24% [2]. **Industry News** - Field research by AgResource shows that corn and soybeans in northern and eastern Iowa have strong growth potential close to record yields. Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised the 2025 US corn yield per acre by 1 bushel to a record 183 bushels per acre [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated 2025/26 US corn planting area, yield per acre, production, and ending inventory, which is overall bearish for the market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bullish, but in the domestic market, high oil - mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation suppress prices. However, uncertainties in fourth - quarter purchases, low near - month rapeseed arrivals, and peak aquaculture season support the market. Although soybean meal substitution weakens demand expectations, the market still maintains a bullish outlook despite increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, in the international market, supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia provide upward momentum. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil - mill operating rates reduce output pressure, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. The market is still recommended to be participated in with a bullish approach despite increased volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9826 yuan/ton (up 69 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2590 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) is 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.3 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed (active contract) is 4966 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan) [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 146 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 86 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan) [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions are 290,638 lots (down 5,858 lots), rapeseed meal main - contract positions are 434,330 lots (down 14,280 lots). Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long positions are 2,808 lots (up 5,092 lots), rapeseed meal's top 20 net long positions are - 5,037 lots (up 12,433 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil has 3,487 receipts (unchanged), rapeseed meal has 9,821 receipts (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9900 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8830 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9570 yuan/ton (up 270 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Averages and others: Average rapeseed oil price is 9965 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), import cost of rapeseed is 8306.78 yuan/ton (up 178.07 yuan), oil - meal ratio is 3.72 (down 0.06), rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 143 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 60 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot spread is 1120 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), rapeseed oil - palm oil spot spread is 600 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread is 420 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume is 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons (up 5 tons), import rapeseed weekly operating rate is 11.94% (down 4.9%), and import rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 11 tons (up 0.35 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons (down 0.65 tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.92 tons (down 0.58 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons (up 0.68 tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5.5 tons (down 0.2 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21 tons (down 1.5 tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 3.47 tons (up 1.77 tons), and rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 2.72 tons (down 0.15 tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons (up 175.6 tons), and edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.22% (down 14.17%), put option implied volatility is 27.39% (down 1.71%), 20 - day historical volatility is 31.16% (up 6.81%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 21.29% (up 2.19%). Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.52% (down 0.48%), put option implied volatility is 13.5% (down 0.53%), 20 - day historical volatility is 18.14% (up 0.46%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 14.58% (up 0.12%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed higher on August 15, with the most actively traded November contract up 6.40 Canadian dollars to 660.90 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract up 5.70 Canadian dollars to 672.70 Canadian dollars/ton. The market has stabilized after a sharp decline earlier in the week [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is estimated at 80.1 million acres (down from 82.5 million acres in July), yield is 53.6 bushels/acre (higher than expected and July's estimate), production is estimated at 4.292 billion bushels (down from 4.335 billion bushels in July), and ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels (down 20 million bushels, the lowest in three years) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and market trends of each product. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday night, the USDA's reduction in planting area continued to be bullish, with US soybeans closing higher. Brazilian soybean premiums slightly decreased, and soybean import costs remained stable. Rapeseed meal fell from its high, and soybean meal fluctuated with external costs. Domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable over the weekend, with spot prices rising slightly by 10 - 20 yuan. Last week, soybean meal trading was weak, but提货 was good, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and 2.4043 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal or slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian premiums have been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is short - term bullish for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the bullish EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier of soybeans from September to January, soybean import costs are maintaining a stable and slightly rising trend, but the continuous upward momentum of soybean import costs is questionable under the background of global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Soybean import costs have recently maintained a stable and slightly rising trend, and the domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal supply surplus situation. It is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month, and exports in the first 15 days are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. In July 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.379 billion pounds, slightly lower than the market expectation of 1.38 billion pounds and higher than the 1.366 billion pounds in June. The Indonesian president said that the government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. Last Friday, China's three major oils rose significantly. Earlier, the postponement of Indonesia's B50 policy, rumors of poor Indonesian palm oil exports, and rapeseed purchase information suppressed prices, but at the end of the week, the Indonesian president's statement about confiscating illegal plantations raised supply concerns. Stable demand from importing countries and low inventories in Southeast Asia provide continuous bullish factors. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas are low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supports the center of the oil market. For palm oil, if importing countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a moderate level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventories, supporting strong producer quotes. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. Currently, the information about the confiscation of Indonesian plantations continues to drive up prices, but the valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5,664 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,940 - 6,010 yuan/ton, Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 276 yuan/ton. According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), 50.217 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of July, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 3.614 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease; the sugar - to - cane ratio was 54.1%, compared with 50.32% in the same period of the previous season; the sugar yield per ton of sugarcane (ATR) decreased by 5.21% year - on - year to 139.62 kg/ton. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 80 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons or 7.26% from the previous week [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the international market, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there are also expectations of increased production in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India in the new season. Therefore, the possibility of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low. In the domestic market, domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The futures price valuation is still high, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) for 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 880 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; and the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more bullish than expected, driving up both domestic and international cotton prices. Also, China and the US have continued to suspend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days, which is bullish for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, the operating rate has remained at a historically low level, and the speed of cotton destocking has slowed down. Overall, cotton prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices in China mainly rose over the weekend. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.14 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. The supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium and small - sized eggs, and the proportion of large - sized eggs is increasing. Cold - stored eggs are also flowing into the market. Currently, it is the peak season, and the consumption of low - priced eggs has improved. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize and then rise slightly this week [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The number of newly - hatched laying hens continues to increase, and the number of culled hens is limited, resulting in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices have performed weaker than expected during the peak season, and funds have taken the opportunity to create a premium in the futures market, especially for near - month contracts. However, as the expectation of a spot price rebound gathers again, combined with the volatility risk brought by high positions at low prices, the futures market may start to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, and the focus will still be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices in China mainly fell slightly over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 13.68 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.47 yuan/kg. Demand has been average, and the number of pigs sold by individual farmers and free - range groups has increased, leading to an increase in supply. However, leading enterprises have reduced their sales volume, and the confrontation sentiment on the supply side has intensified. Pig prices are expected to be stable today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The previous continuous release of pressure and the bottom - supporting sentiment have led to a temporary stabilization of the spot market. The futures market has generally risen and then fallen under the influence of news. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. Under the expectation of both increasing supply and demand, the spread between fat and standard pigs and whether farmers will hold back pigs at that time will be crucial. The market may fall into range - bound oscillations. In the short term, focus on buying at low prices; in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure; and for far - month contracts, adopt a reverse - spread strategy [20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound; Dalian soybean futures are expected to rebound and fluctuate [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybean is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend for the main - contract futures prices on the day - trading session of the report date [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4056 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.37%), and up 24 yuan (+0.59%) to 4068 yuan/ton during the night session. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3137 yuan/ton during the day session, down 27 yuan (-0.85%), and up 5 yuan (+0.16%) to 3142 yuan/ton during the night session. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042.75 cents/bushel, up 14.25 cents (+1.39%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 294.3 dollars/short - ton, down 0.7 dollars (-0.24%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price range of soybean meal (43%) is 3060 - 3100 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In East China, the price of soybean meal is 2990 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In South China, the price range of soybean meal is 3040 - 3070 yuan/ton, with the price down 60 yuan to flat compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 2.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 7.15 million tons per day two trading days ago. - The inventory of soybean meal was 96.09 million tons per week, and the data for the previous trading day was not available [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - On August 15, CBOT soybean futures closed moderately higher, supported by active short - covering before the weekend. The price rose 5.6% this week, the first weekly increase in four weeks and the largest single - week increase since early April, mainly due to the USDA's soybean yield forecast being lower than market expectations. - The NOPA reported that the US soybean crushing volume in July reached a record 195.7 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 7.01%, higher than market expectations and the highest level since January, which provided additional support for soybean futures. - However, due to the trade tension between the US and China, the largest buyer, the new - crop export demand was weak, limiting the price increase [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The origin has strong supply and demand, and the strategy is to go long at low levels [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish factors have been fully priced in, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2]. - **Soybean**: It will rebound and fluctuate [2]. - **Corn**: It will move in a range [2]. - **Sugar**: It will mainly consolidate within a range [2]. - **Cotton**: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2]. - **Eggs**: It will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is weak [2]. - **Peanuts**: The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were 9,394 yuan/ton (up 1.08%) and 9,658 yuan/ton (up 2.81%) respectively. Soybean oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were 8,562 yuan/ton (up 0.26%) and 8,594 yuan/ton (up 0.37%) respectively. Trading volumes and open interests of both decreased [4]. - **News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased by 16.5% - 21.3% compared to the same period in July. US July soybean crush reached a record high, and the soybean oil inventory was slightly lower than expected [5][7]. - **Trend Strength**: Palm oil: 1; Soybean oil: 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 3,137 yuan/ton (down 0.85%) and 3,142 yuan/ton (up 0.16%) respectively. DCE soybean 2511's day - session and night - session closing prices were 4,056 yuan/ton (down 0.37%) and 4,068 yuan/ton (up 0.59%) respectively. Spot prices in different regions had slight changes, and the trading volume decreased while the inventory was not available [9]. - **News**: On August 15, CBOT soybeans rose due to active short - covering. The US July soybean crush reached a record high, but new - crop export demand was weak [9][11]. - **Trend Strength**: Both soybean meal and soybean: +1 (only for the day - session main contract price on the report day) [11]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2509's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,266 yuan/ton (down 0.74%) and 2,266 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. C2511's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,190 yuan/ton (down 0.77%) and 2,187 yuan/ton (down 0.14%) respectively. Trading volumes and open interests of different contracts changed, and the total market's trading volume and open interest increased [13]. - **News**: Northern corn port prices were stable, and some container prices increased. Southern prices were stable or slightly down [14]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.47 cents/pound (down 0.11%), the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures main contract price was 5,664 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The 91 - spread was 76 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and the 15 - spread was 42 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [16]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall decreased. China's June sugar imports were 420,000 tons. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global and domestic sugar supply and demand in different seasons [16][17][18]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 14,120 yuan/ton (down 0.25%) and 14,105 yuan/ton (down 0.11% - 0.20%) respectively. Spot prices in different regions had slight changes, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts decreased [20]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to demand concerns [21][22]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,184 yuan/500 kg (down 0.84%), and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,575 yuan/500 kg (up 0.06%). Spot prices in different regions were stable, and the prices of related feed and livestock also had slight changes [27]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [27]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and futures prices of different contracts had different changes. Trading volumes and open interests of different contracts decreased or increased, and the basis and spreads also changed [31]. - **News**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and the demand growth was limited. The short - term support and resistance levels of LH2509 were 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: PK510's closing price was 8,058 yuan/ton (down 1.03%), and PK511's closing price was 7,884 yuan/ton (down 1.40%). Spot prices in different regions were stable, and the trading volume and open interest of the whole market had slight changes [35]. - **News**: New peanuts are gradually coming onto the market in some regions, and the prices are mainly determined by moisture and quality. Some old peanuts' prices are stable or slightly weak [36]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [38].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a significant increase in price and trading volume, indicating a bullish trend in the market despite underlying supply and demand challenges [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, palm oil futures closed at 9460 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.97% [1] - The trading volume increased by 175,121 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly trading range was between 8914 yuan/ton and 9536 yuan/ton [1] Import and Cost Analysis - The CNF price for 24-degree palm oil for September-October shipments rose by 30 to 49 USD/ton, reaching 1118 USD/ton and 1105 USD/ton respectively [2] - The landed cost in South China increased by 260 to 430 yuan/ton, amounting to 9580 yuan/ton and 9450 yuan/ton [2] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June [2] Supply and Demand Insights - Malaysia is entering a seasonal production increase, with expectations of the highest inventory levels in nearly two years [3] - Domestic consumption in China remains weak, with low port inventories and a declining spot basis [3] - Competition from alternative oils, particularly soybean oil, is exerting downward pressure on palm oil prices [3] Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The market is currently in an overbought condition, suggesting limited short-term upward momentum [3] - If supply continues to increase without a corresponding improvement in demand, palm oil futures may face further downward pressure [3] - The domestic oilseed supply remains stable, with a neutral outlook for palm oil prices in the near term [3]