Core Viewpoint - The lithium metal is identified as a long-term direction for solid-state battery anodes, with the rolling method expected to achieve large-scale implementation first, while evaporation and liquid-phase methods are potential future development directions for ultra-thin lithium strips [1][4]. Industry Changes - Lithium carbonate price decreased to 59,000 yuan/ton, down 8% month-on-month; lithium hydroxide price decreased to 61,000 yuan/ton, down 7% month-on-month [2]. - In June, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.11 million units, up 27% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month; cumulative sales from January to June reached 6.1 million units, up 39% year-on-year [2]. Market Review - Since July 2025, the lithium battery sector has been active, with most segments outperforming the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices; lithium mining sector led with an 11% increase, while segments like intelligent driving and lithium iron phosphate cathodes saw declines of -0.4%, -1%, and -3% respectively [3]. - The trading volume in lithium battery-related sectors continued to grow, driven by active trading in solid-state battery segments [3]. Research Focus - Lithium metal anodes can achieve higher energy density compared to graphite and silicon-carbon, making them a long-term iteration direction for solid-state batteries; the global market for lithium metal is expected to approach 10 billion yuan by 2030 [4]. - The rolling method is expected to achieve large-scale implementation first, while evaporation and liquid-phase methods are seen as potential future directions for ultra-thin lithium strips [4]. Industry Insights - In June, new energy vehicle sales in China reached 1.11 million units, with a penetration rate of 50%; Europe and the U.S. followed with 300,000 and 120,000 units respectively [5]. - Domestic energy storage installations in June were 6.9 GWh, down 41% month-on-month and 70% year-on-year, while cumulative installations from January to June reached 49.0 GWh, up 162% year-on-year [5]. Lithium Battery Production Tracking - In July, production of lithium batteries is expected to see a month-on-month change of -2% to 3%, with year-on-year growth of 7% to 49% [6]. - Overall lithium battery material prices stabilized, with lithium salt and separator prices continuing to decline [6]. New Technologies - Solid-state battery commercialization is expected to be influenced by policies and the emergence of new technologies; the focus is on oxide and polymer routes for future development [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate has not improved substantially. After the price decline, there is a certain purchasing demand from downstream. Considering the uncertainty of supply - side disturbances, it is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended investment strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [3][84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 13.26%. The trading volume reached 3.4 million lots (- 2.87 million), and the open interest reached 216,100 lots (- 275,000). The basis was at a premium of 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica production was 16,100 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [9]. - In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [13]. - In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [18]. 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [23]. 3.2.3 Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 17,268 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [29]. - In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31]. 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,587 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [42]. 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 15,655 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In June, the import and export volume increased [47]. 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the export volume decreased [49]. 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [50]. 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, the production of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [57]. 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, the production of power batteries was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The loading volume of power batteries was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60]. 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.268 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The sales volume was 1.329 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63]. 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, the production of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [67]. 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 10.827 million, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 3.159 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [70]. 3.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 55 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 80 yuan/ton [73]. 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 1,444 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,427 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 3,073 tons, and the other's inventory decreased by 1,090 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,206 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 53 tons [80][81].

Battery Production - In August, C produced 63 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - B produced 25.2 GWh in August, with a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - E's preliminary production in August was over 12 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - Z's production in August was close to 11 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - G produced nearly 10 GWh in August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 65% [1] Material Production - For ternary materials, production in August was 0.8 million tons, remaining flat month-on-month but down 30% year-on-year due to lower-than-expected demand in the US [1] - Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) production was 1.8 million tons in August, flat month-on-month and unchanged year-on-year [1] - Another LiFePO4 production line produced 2.5 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - Separator production reached over 400 million square meters, remaining flat month-on-month and up 24% year-on-year [1] - Another separator line produced nearly 1 billion square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - Anode production was 2.7 million tons in August, showing a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - Copper foil production was 8,000 tons, flat month-on-month and up 23% year-on-year [1] - Another copper foil line produced over 12,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] - Aluminum foil production was over 18,000 tons, remaining flat month-on-month and up 40% year-on-year [1] Industry Trends - The main engine manufacturers are focusing on balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement [3] - BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [5] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market that exceeds that of the power market [5]

Core Insights - The lithium battery sector has shown significant activity since July 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices, with the lithium mining segment leading with an 11% increase [1][2] - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices have decreased by 8% and 7% respectively in July, indicating a downward trend in raw material costs [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.11 million units in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% and a cumulative increase of 39% for the first half of the year [2][4] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector has experienced a recovery in monthly transaction volumes, driven by active trading in solid-state battery segments [1][2] - The three-year historical valuation of over half of the lithium battery-related segments is at a high level, indicating increased market attention [2] New Technologies - Lithium metal anodes are identified as a long-term direction for battery technology, with the potential to achieve energy densities exceeding 500Wh/kg [3] - The first global test of a lithium metal anode solid-state battery was conducted by Mercedes, with predictions of a market size nearing 10 billion yuan by 2030 [3] Energy Storage - In June, domestic energy storage installations fell to 6.9 GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, while cumulative installations for the first half of the year reached 49.0 GWh, a 162% increase [5] - The U.S. energy storage market remained relatively stable, with 3.7 GWh installed in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% for the first half of the year [5] Investment Recommendations - The lithium battery sector is expected to transition from broad market-driven growth to structural opportunities led by technological breakthroughs and new application areas in 2025 [7] - Key companies recommended for investment include CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Technology, as well as Xiamen Tungsten [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to drive price increases and improve profitability across the supply chain [16][36] - The energy storage sector is experiencing sustained demand growth, with significant project developments and favorable policy support [39][44] - The lithium battery segment shows stable demand, with advancements in solid-state technology and materials innovation [39][44] - The wind power sector is benefiting from increased offshore project activity and recovery in profitability [39][44] - The power equipment sector is seeing positive developments from high-voltage projects and international demand [39][44] - New directions in AI and robotics are highlighted as emerging investment opportunities, particularly in the context of increased capital expenditure from major manufacturers [39][44] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic - The photovoltaic industry is witnessing a price increase in key materials, with polysilicon prices rising to 49-55 CNY/kg and silicon wafer prices increasing by approximately 0.1 CNY per piece [22][25] - The government is pushing for the elimination of low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, with mergers and acquisitions in the polysilicon sector expected to progress in Q3 [16][36] - Recommended stocks include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar [16][36] Energy Storage - In H1 2025, major energy storage projects across 21 regions reached a total capacity of 124 GWh, with significant contributions from Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Guangdong [41][42] - The report highlights the increasing stability of the energy storage market, with a positive outlook for domestic demand and pricing [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Sungrow Power Supply and Deye Technology [39][44] Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is characterized by stable demand and a focus on solid-state battery technology, with companies like CATL and other second-tier players expected to benefit [39][44] - The report notes the importance of material innovations such as lithium metal anodes and nickel-iron current collectors [39][44] - Recommended stocks include CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, and Putailai [39][44] Wind Power - The offshore wind sector is accelerating project construction, with expectations for increased profitability in the second half of the year [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Mingyang Smart Energy and Zhongji Lingnan [39][44] Power Equipment - The report indicates that high-voltage projects have been approved, with overseas demand expected to rise [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric [39][44] New Directions - The report highlights advancements in humanoid robotics and AI applications, with significant capital expenditure from major companies [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Zhejiang Rongtai [39][44]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Sector - The sensitivity to lithium carbonate production suspension information has decreased, while the U.S. policy remains a significant factor; demand is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of the year [1][2] - Companies with stable Q2 performance or potential catalysts in Q3 are recommended [2] Group 2: Power Equipment Sector - AIDC supporting and export sectors are showing improved sentiment; high-pressure equipment is expected to release a large number of orders in H2 [2] - The export growth rate for power transformers from January to June is over 40%, indicating positive impacts from exports, high-pressure equipment, and external networks [2] Group 3: Photovoltaic and Energy Storage - The price of polysilicon is supported by cost factors, and production capacity consolidation is crucial for further profit increases [2] - The OBBB Act's implementation has led to a recovery in U.S. energy storage demand, with annual demand potentially exceeding expectations [2] Group 4: Wind Power Sector - The wind power sector has been relatively weak recently, presenting an opportunity for investment at low levels with low attention [2] - The market is currently underestimating the profit elasticity brought by improvements in wind turbine prices, with a focus on recommending main engines and offshore wind segments [2] Group 5: Hydrogen Energy - The green ammonia produced by the Zero Carbon Hydrogen Ammonia project has completed the world's first ship fuel refueling operation using 100% green electricity at Dalian Port [2] - The domestic industry is beginning to establish production and refueling capabilities for "green alcohol" and "green ammonia," with demand expected to grow [2] Group 6: Robotics Sector - Following the WAIC, the robotics sector has seen some pullback; companies with strong financial strength and overseas factory layouts are recommended for attention [3] - Focus on solution providers with leading progress in automation workstations demo in the second half of the year [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AIDC, wind power, photovoltaic, and energy storage sectors, with specific recommendations for leading suppliers in liquid cooling and power segments [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance and upward adjustments in capital expenditures from major overseas CSP companies, indicating robust demand for liquid cooling technologies [5][6][7]. - In the wind power sector, despite a year-on-year decline in July's bidding, the report anticipates stable or even growing installations in 2026, supported by favorable policies and high bidding prices [10][13]. - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are seeing significant policy support aimed at reducing competition and stabilizing prices, with a major procurement initiative launched by China Huadian Group [16][18]. AIDC Sector Summary - Major CSP companies, including Google and Meta, reported Q2 earnings exceeding market expectations, with significant capital expenditure increases, particularly for AI infrastructure [6][7]. - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow as data centers increasingly adopt this technology to manage rising power consumption [8][9]. Wind Power Sector Summary - July's bidding results showed a total of 5.5GW, a 46% year-on-year decrease but an 11% increase from the previous month, indicating a potential recovery in the second half of the year [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high bidding prices and the anticipated recovery of bidding volumes following the implementation of provincial policies [13][15]. Photovoltaic & Energy Storage Sector Summary - The report discusses ongoing efforts to combat "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with government meetings focusing on regulating competition and improving procurement processes [16][17]. - A significant procurement of 20GW of photovoltaic components has been initiated, which is expected to influence pricing trends and market stability [18][19]. Electric Grid Sector Summary - The Ya Xia hydropower project is projected to create a demand for approximately 1,800 kilometers of GIL, with a potential market space exceeding 30 billion yuan [19]. - Companies like Samsung Medical are making strides in international markets, with expectations of strong growth in the coming years [20][21]. Lithium Battery Sector Summary - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Defu Technology making significant progress in production capabilities [24][26][28]. - The report notes the increasing commercialization of solid-state batteries, with a focus on overcoming existing technological challenges [25][27]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Sector Summary - The "Hydrogen Action in Jilin" initiative and the launch of the national electric power investment green hydrogen project mark significant advancements in hydrogen technology [40]. - The report highlights the global first demonstration of large-scale green ammonia production, indicating a growing market for hydrogen-based solutions [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The lithium battery sector is expected to enter a 2-3 year upward cycle, with potential improvements in performance and valuation [7] - The report recommends companies such as CATL and EVE Energy, and suggests focusing on solid-state battery technology [7] - The energy storage segment is seeing growth, with companies like XINWANDA planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7][26] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - CATL reported a revenue of 178.9 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with a net profit of 30.5 billion RMB, up 33% [13] - The company’s production capacity reached 345 GWh, with a utilization rate of nearly 90% [13] - Solid-state battery commercialization is complex, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 [14] Energy Storage - XINWANDA submitted an application for H-share listing, with a sales volume of 3.3 GWh in Q1 2025 [26] - The revenue from energy storage systems is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase from 1.11 billion RMB in 2023 to 1.89 billion RMB in 2024 [26][27] - The gross margin for energy storage systems is expected to rise from 19% in 2023 to 20.4% in 2024 [27] Power Equipment - Investment in key energy projects exceeded 1.5 trillion RMB in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [32] - The report highlights the rapid growth in renewable energy investments, particularly in distributed solar and onshore wind projects [33] Electric Vehicle Sales - In July, electric vehicle sales in major European countries reached 84,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42% [18] - Domestic electric vehicle sales show mixed results, with companies like NIO and XPeng reporting varying growth rates [20][24]

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 ——供给端扰动与下游排产向好，短期向下空间有限 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年08月03日 一、周度总结 【行情回顾】 库存：本周国内锂矿库存环比减少，碳酸锂库存环比下跌1.01%，磷酸铁锂库存环比上涨，三元材料库存环 比下降，锰酸锂库存环比持平，钴酸锂库存环比上涨。 【核心逻辑】 当前锂矿、锂盐和电芯市场均承压于显著的库存压力，去库存进程进展缓慢，中长期供需失衡的格局尚未出 现实质性缓解。当前市场存在两个短期逻辑，在价格下行周期中，锂盐产能过剩引发的出清压力正沿着产业 链向上游矿端传导，而矿价的松动又会反过来加剧锂盐价格的下行惯性，形成"锂盐跌-矿价松-锂盐再 跌"的负反馈循环风险。而宏观预期及供给端扰动带动期货反弹时则为锂盐企业创造了一定的套保窗口，并 刺激生产积极性释放，进而带动锂矿石的消耗，推动锂矿价格的上涨，形成"期货上涨-产能释放-矿耗增加- 矿价跟涨"的阶梯式上涨链条，并随着锂盐价格的上涨，企业利润逐渐增加，未来开工率逐渐 ...

Group 1 - The market has experienced a slight pause after five consecutive weeks of growth, with new capital's marginal profit effect weakening. The financing balance growth rate in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is slowing down, indicating a neutral oscillation range of 7%-10% [2][12][13] - The report emphasizes that the current market structure is increasingly clear, driven by two main lines: the "anti-involution" leading to a cyclical and pro-cyclical trading PPI recovery, and the strong elasticity provided by global technology collaboration [2][12][58] Group 2 - The report identifies that despite the current low PPI levels, there is potential for marginal improvement due to a loose liquidity environment, which may accelerate valuation recovery. This is supported by two signals: the credit transmission providing leading signals for PPI recovery and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI [3][14][17] - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a shift towards PPI trading, with core assets in cyclical consumption likely to experience valuation recovery, thus supporting the index [3][21][25] Group 3 - The TMT sector is highlighted as a core area for institutional long-term allocation, driven by a "fan effect" that attracts consensus among funds. The sector has shown significant trading activity, particularly in the communication sub-sector, which has gained traction as other sectors have seen a decline in trading volume [4][37][38] - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward phase, with conditions for transitioning from "expectation recovery" to "economic verification" being met. The report notes that the current semiconductor cycle is characterized by strong demand driven by AI and high-performance computing needs [4][47][49] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic allocation in the current market environment, recommending a focus on technology, military, anti-involution, PPI diffusion directions, and stable dividends. Specific sectors include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and cyclical sectors like insurance and real estate, which are expected to benefit from PPI recovery [5][58]