Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shanzhou City has made significant progress in attracting investment and promoting industrial development, achieving a 27.44% year-on-year increase in actual domestic investment to 4.447 billion yuan from January to May [1] - The city has signed 179 new projects with a total investment of 27.994 billion yuan, focusing on five major industrial chains and six key industrial chains, particularly in the electronic information industry [1] - The city is actively enhancing its engagement with enterprises to understand their development directions and investment trends, assisting them in overcoming challenges related to labor, energy, and financing [1] Group 2 - Shanzhou City is leveraging opportunities from industrial transfer, particularly from developed eastern and southern regions, and is utilizing its external agencies for targeted investment attraction [2] - The city has successfully introduced several distinctive industrial projects, such as Zhongtian Yucheng and Guofei UAV, through collaboration with Nanjing and the Xi'an metropolitan area [2] - Innovative investment attraction models are being explored, including partnerships with government financing platforms and state-owned enterprise funds, to draw high-quality projects to Shanzhou [2]

Group 1: Core Concepts - The Jiangsu Provincial Government aims to cultivate a number of livable and workable rural areas, selecting 40 areas as provincial cultivation objects for 2024-2025 [1] - The initiative emphasizes the development of rural industries, moving from "one village, one product" to "multiple products in one area," enhancing the value chain of agricultural products [1][2] - The program encourages collaboration between rural communities and enterprises to improve market presence and brand recognition [1] Group 2: Aesthetic Development - The focus is on creating aesthetically pleasing rural areas, transitioning from "one village's beauty" to "shared beauty among villages" [2] - The initiative promotes the integration of local culture and landscape design, encouraging designers and artists to participate in rural development [2] - The development of local cultural brands and traditional crafts is highlighted, with examples of successful projects generating significant economic value [2] Group 3: Shared Services - The program aims to enhance public services and infrastructure, moving from basic guarantees to quality living standards [3] - It emphasizes the integration of transportation, information, and logistics infrastructure, with a focus on rural cold chain logistics [3] - The initiative seeks to improve access to education, healthcare, and other public services in rural areas, particularly for those farther from urban centers [3] Group 4: Collaborative Operations - The strategy promotes resource integration and cooperative development among villages, moving from isolated operations to collective growth [4] - Examples include the establishment of operational companies that enhance collective economic income through collaboration [4] - The initiative explores financial mechanisms to support agricultural modernization and collective asset management [4] Group 5: Organizational Development - The program encourages the establishment of joint party committees and collaborative governance structures among rural areas [5] - It focuses on talent recruitment and retention to drive rural economic development, with initiatives to support young professionals [5] - The initiative includes performance-based incentives for collective economic management teams to enhance operational efficiency [5]

南非贸易和外交部门4日联合召开媒体吹风会表示，美国对南非输美商品征收30%高关税的政策将对南 非经济造成严重冲击，可能导致约3万个就业岗位流失。南非贸易、工业和竞争部总司长西姆菲维·汉密 尔顿表示，美国是仅次于欧盟和中国的南非第三大贸易伙伴，高关税将严重冲击南非汽车制造、农产品 加工等行业，威胁约3万个就业岗位。南非统计局数据显示，2025年一季度全国失业率达32.9%，其中 15至34岁青年群体失业率高达46.1%。（新华社） ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - inch Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing corresponding operation suggestions based on their supply - demand, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton &棉纱 - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded today, with the near - month contract stronger and the January contract weaker. The 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads also rebounded. In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profit was under pressure. New - year Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or maintain a positive spread strategy for 9 - 11 [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The rainfall in Guangxi was good in July but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of 25/26 sugar production. Overall, US sugar is trending down, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. Operationally, wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The inventory of cold - stored apples is low, and traders are eager to sell. The price of early - maturing apples dropped after a high opening. The market focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Operationally, wait and see [4] 20 - inch Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated strongly, NR weakly, and BR continued to fall. The supply of natural rubber is entering the high - yield period, and the demand for tires is weak. Natural rubber inventory decreased, while synthetic rubber inventory increased. Operationally, wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to fall today. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, supply is loose, and demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price rebounded. The supply of domestic coniferous logs is expected to remain low, and the demand is good. The inventory is low, and the spot price is expected to rebound. Operationally, maintain a long - biased strategy [8]

Market Overview - On August 4, the agricultural processing sector rose by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day, with *ST Zhongji leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3583.31, up 0.66%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11041.56, up 0.46% [1] Stock Performance - The following stocks in the agricultural processing sector showed notable performance: - *ST Zhongji (000972) closed at 3.35, up 4.04% with a trading volume of 177,800 shares and a turnover of 58.65 million yuan [1] - Xisheng Co. (603182) closed at 14.64, up 2.31% with a trading volume of 22,600 shares and a turnover of 32.88 million yuan [1] - Baolingbao (002286) closed at 10.73, up 2.09% with a trading volume of 104,200 shares [1] - Guotou Zhonglu (600962) closed at 19.37, up 2.05% with a trading volume of 75,300 shares [1] Capital Flow - The agricultural processing sector experienced a net outflow of 28.98 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 45.13 million yuan [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Guotou Zhonglu (600962) had a net inflow of 13.02 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - *ST Zhongji (000972) had a net inflow of 12.50 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - San Si Si (600191) had a net inflow of 7.76 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, closing at 8838.00 CNY per ton, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume for July 1-31 is estimated at 896,362 tons, a decrease of 25.01% compared to 1,195,265 tons in the same period last month [2] - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 7.19% month-on-month for July, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, resulting in a production increase of 7.07% compared to the previous month [2] - Indonesia's statistics bureau indicated that from January to June, Indonesia exported 11 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.69%. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of the year rose by 22.2% year-on-year [2] Market Sentiment and Forecast - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the external palm oil supply and demand fundamentals are weak, leading to insufficient upward momentum in the domestic palm oil market, with increased technical selling pressure and potential for further declines in the short term [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures noted that high-frequency data shows a month-on-month recovery in Malaysian palm oil production in July, while export performance remains weak, leading to expectations of increased inventory and negatively impacting palm oil performance. The ample supply of domestic soybean oil, driven by high previous imports, has resulted in lower prices for soybean oil in China, creating a substitution risk for palm oil demand and raising concerns about future export levels from producing regions. The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in the stock price of Da Cheng Biochemical Technology, which fell by 10.0% to 0.099 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 3.9634 million yuan as of 15:30 on August 4 [1] - Da Cheng Biochemical Technology Group Limited is identified as a leading manufacturer of corn biochemical products in China, focusing on the production and sale of corn refining products [1] - The company is headquartered in Hong Kong, with its main production base located in the corn golden belt of Jilin Province [1] Group 2 - As of the 2024 annual report, Da Cheng Biochemical Technology reported total operating revenue of 1.853 billion yuan and a net profit of 713 million yuan [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 中美现行政策下，关注远月低多机会 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-08-04 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：中美现行政策下，关注远月低多机会 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏空， | （1）本周美豆优良率升至70%，未来两周产区降雨偏少，但气温偏低，预期影响有限。（2）巴西大豆集中到港压力下，8月国内大豆压榨预期在千万吨以 上，豆粕预期继续乐酷；10-1月国内买船进度偏慢，中美现行贸易政策下，远月存去库预期。（3）中加贸易政策下，国内进口菜粕和菜籽供应预期缩量， | | | 中期偏多 | 国内菜粕在9月前存在去库预期，9月后供应存在一定的不确定性。 | | 需求 | 豆粕偏多， 菜粕偏空 | （1）生猪和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪供应；（2）豆粕性价比较高，提货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - **Tin**: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - **Polysilicon**: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - **Iron Ore**: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - **Corn**: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Live Pig**: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - **Egg**: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - **Cotton**: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - **Timber**: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - **Stock Index**: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fraud incident of US non - farm payroll data from May to June in 2025 has multi - dimensional and differentiated impacts on the global commodity market, reshaping the pricing logic of new energy metals, iron ore, and oilseed agricultural products through the transmission chain of "economic expectation revision - monetary policy shift - industrial policy game." Different varieties show differentiation due to policy sensitivity differences. Investors need to pay close attention to the September Fed interest - rate meeting and China's "dual - carbon" policy details, which may be the key nodes for secondary pricing of the market [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Futures: The Tug - of - War between Demand Expectation Collapse and Geopolitical Conflicts - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June exposed the real weakness of the US job market, causing the market's expectation of crude oil demand to cool rapidly. The revised non - farm data showed that the new employment in May and June was only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, far lower than the previously announced 144,000 and 147,000. Brent crude oil futures price once fell below $70/barrel after the incident was exposed, a decline of about 15% from the May high. The long - term demand - side impact depends on the pace of the US economic soft landing and the actual demand recovery in China. If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected in the fourth quarter, it may help improve the macro - expectation and support the oil price center [6]. - Geopolitical factors partially offset the demand concerns. OPEC + members have agreed in principle to significantly increase crude oil production again in September, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day. Coupled with the rising expectation of the US imposing a 10% tariff on imported crude oil, international oil prices rebounded to around $75 in July. The crude oil market is in a volatile pattern of "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [6]. - In August, the supply side may increase to a certain extent, but the increase may be limited. The demand side is supported by the traditional peak season in the US, and the inventory - reduction trend is expected to continue, providing bottom support for oil prices. However, the pressure of OPEC + production increase still exists, and long - term crude oil prices face upward pressure. Domestic chemical futures are expected to be differentiated due to raw material costs and supply - demand factors [7][8]. 2. Gold Futures Regain Momentum: Driven by Both Safe - Haven Premium and Monetary Policy Shift - The market trust crisis triggered by the fraud of US non - farm data from May to June and the expectation of Fed policy shift jointly pushed the gold price to break through the historical high. After the release of weak non - farm data, the dollar index tumbled, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 46% to 73% [10]. - Spot gold soared after the non - farm data was announced, rising more than $70 and closing up 2.21% at $3362.88/ounce. COMEX gold futures broke through $2600/ounce. Central bank gold - buying behavior further strengthened the safe - haven attribute of gold. Goldman Sachs predicted that if the concerns about US fiscal sustainability intensify, the gold price may break through $3150/ounce by the end of 2025 [10][11]. 3. Copper Futures: The Intensified Game between Industrial Attributes and Policy Disturbances - The Trump administration's decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper pushed up the LME copper price, while the fraud of US non - farm data weakened the global industrial demand logic for copper. In June 2025, the global refined copper inventory increased by 12% compared with May, but the copper price premium in the US Midwest remained at a high level of $450/ton. The COMEX copper price closed at $9200/ton in July, down 7% from the May high but still higher than the beginning - of - year level [13]. 4. Aluminum Futures: The Balance between Cost Support and Demand Contraction - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June led to concerns about global and US economic recession, causing the LME aluminum price to fall by 4% in June. However, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices pushed up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, supporting the price to stabilize above $2000/ton. The adjustment of China's export structure was a key variable. The 22% increase in aluminum product exports to ASEAN in the first half of the year partially offset the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand re - balance reduced the aluminum price volatility from 18% in May to 12% in June [14]. 5. New Energy Metal Futures: The Game between Cost Support and Capacity Clearance 5.1 Lithium Carbonate: Bottom - Range Fluctuation and Policy - Driven Expectations - The fraud of US non - farm data increased the market's concern about the global economic slowdown, and the expected demand for new energy vehicles decreased. The lithium carbonate price fell to the industry's cash - cost line of 60,000 yuan/ton from May to June. However, China's "dual - carbon" policy and the resilient demand in the energy - storage field partially offset the downward pressure. The volatility of lithium carbonate futures reached a new high since October 2024. After the price decline, the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. 5.2 Polysilicon: The Tug - of - War between Inventory Reduction and Technological Iteration - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a downward adjustment of the expected photovoltaic installation, causing the polysilicon price to fall below 35,000 yuan/ton in June, a decline of 18% from the May high. The technological iteration of the increasing penetration rate of N - type silicon wafers supported the premium of high - purity polysilicon. The global polysilicon inventory decreased from 398,000 tons at the end of 2024 to 367,000 tons in June 2025, but the inventory - reduction speed was lower than expected. The expectation of China imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon exports further suppressed market sentiment [20]. 6. Iron Ore: The Tug - of - War between Supply Expectations and Demand Resilience 6.1 Contradiction between Short - Term Demand Support and Long - Term Capacity Impact - After the fraud of US non - farm data, the market's concern about China's crude - steel production control increased. From May to July, the blast - furnace operating rate remained at a high level, and the daily average hot - metal output in July was above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore market demand. The price of iron ore fluctuated between $100 - 105/ton. The expected production of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea at the end of 2025 will have a significant impact on the global iron ore supply pattern, forming a long - term supply suppression. The term structure of the iron ore futures market has changed from the Contango structure to the Back structure [23][24]. 6.2 Superimposed Impact of Policy Game and Green Transformation - The increasing expectation of China imposing a 5% tariff on imported iron ore has raised the spot premium of iron ore. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has changed the iron ore market structure, increasing the demand for high - grade ore. The "near - strong, far - weak" pattern of the iron ore market has become more prominent [25]. 7. Agricultural Product Futures: Indirect Transmission through the Dollar Cycle and Trade Policy 7.1 Soybeans: Double Suppression of South American Bumper Harvest and Tariff Game - The fraud of US non - farm data and the expected South American soybean bumper harvest (expected output of 165 million tons) led to a 4.2% decline in the US soybean futures price in June. China's 10% tariff on US soybeans increased the import cost and reduced the non - commercial net long positions. The sharp decrease in soybean arrivals in China from October will lead to a decline in the operating rate and processing volume of domestic soybean oil mills. The basis of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil futures is at a five - year low, and the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are likely to rise [29][31]. 7.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal: The Tug - of - War between Trade Barriers and Inventory Cycle - China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal in May led to a sharp increase in the coastal rapeseed meal price. The policy of allowing the "domestic sales" of bonded - area rapeseed meal in June forced traders to accelerate exports, reducing domestic inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations may lead to a shortage of rapeseed arrivals in China after October, which will boost the prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [32]. 7.3 Biodiesel Policy: Linkage between Energy Attributes and Agricultural Products - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a decrease in the US biodiesel blending ratio of soybean oil, causing the US soybean oil futures price to fall. The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) supported the rebound of rapeseed oil futures. In the long term, palm oil may be a new buying opportunity after a sharp decline [33][34]. 7.4 Sugar: The Expectation of a Medium - to - Long - Term Weak Trend Remains - The impact of non - farm data fraud on sugar prices is limited. The ICE raw - sugar futures price is mainly affected by fundamental factors. The global sugar supply mainly depends on the Brazilian sugar - producing area. The long - term trend of raw - sugar prices may be weak [35][36]. 7.5 Cotton: Double Suppression of Cotton Demand - The fraud of US non - farm data and the political turmoil led to a decline in the cotton futures price. The economic slowdown and the decline in crude oil prices dragging down the price of polyester (a cotton substitute) have double - suppressed cotton demand [37]. 8. The Global Market Will Face Structural Changes such as Policy Reconstruction 8.1 Reconstruction of Global and US - European Monetary Policy Expectations - After the significant downward revision of US non - farm data from May to June, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2025 has increased from 75 basis points to 100 basis points. The downward revision of non - farm data is to create momentum for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September [38]. 8.2 The US May Enter a Cliff - like Interest - Rate Cut in 2026 - After the Fed starts to cut interest rates in September, the US will enter a period of loose monetary policy. In the second quarter of 2026, the Fed may lose its monetary - policy independence and start a cliff - like interest - rate cut [39]. 8.3 Global Financial Asset Reallocation Benefits Chinese Assets - With the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, international financial assets in the US will flow out, and global financial assets will be reallocated, benefiting Chinese assets [40].