Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with potential for policy - related disturbances. For trading, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. The polysilicon futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and a range - bound operation is also recommended [3][7] Market Analysis and Strategy for Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating. The main contract 2509 opened at 7385 yuan/ton and closed at 7470 yuan/ton, a change of 35 yuan/ton (0.47%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 310357 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 55179 lots, a decrease of 441 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 55.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons from the previous week. The inventory in social general warehouses was 13.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons [1] - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10200 - 10800 yuan/ton, with an average price significantly lower than the previous week. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10400 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the weakening cost support and sluggish off - season demand, DMC enterprises started to cut prices to sell goods, and downstream enterprises' purchases increased [2] Strategy - In the recent days, the industrial silicon futures market has been oscillating. Although the statistical inventory has slightly decreased, the total inventory is still expected to slightly increase. The inventory structure has changed. There is a possibility of increased production of polysilicon, but the supply of industrial silicon is also expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances [3] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Polysilicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 33000 yuan/ton and closing at 32720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 27613 lots (30435 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 57380 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory slightly increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 26.20, a decrease of 4.70% compared to the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 18.74GW, a decrease of 3.10%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 24500.00 tons, an increase of 2.94%, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.90GW, a decrease of 1.53% [5] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.90 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.26 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.05 yuan/piece [5] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W [6] Strategy - In the recent two days, the near - month contracts of polysilicon futures have significantly declined, while the far - month contracts have been relatively strong. On one hand, it is affected by the increased supply and weak consumption of near - month contracts. On the other hand, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting, there will be greater - scale production cuts in the third quarter, and the start - up ratio is expected to decrease by 10% - 15%. Policies to control "below - cost sales" have been implemented. The market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [7] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：累库有所加速，偏弱震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：上方空间有限 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 20 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 2）根据钢联，4 月 27 日，中国恩菲 EPC 总承包的印尼 CNI 镍铁 RKEF 一期项目成功产出镍铁，标志 着项目正式进入试生产阶段。CNI 项目位于印尼东南苏拉威西省，生产品位 22%的镍铁，单条线年产金属 镍约 1.25 万吨。 3）根据钢联资讯，海外媒体报道印尼某重要金属加工园区内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of polysilicon has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, but the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. At the current price level, most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, with production enthusiasm dampened, and some even suspending the production line of deliverable products. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling adjusted down, silicon wafer enterprises reducing self - regulated quotas, N - type silicon wafer prices and production scheduling declining, and battery enterprises also having production reduction plans. After the "rush - to - install" boom in the terminal market, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high. Overseas photovoltaic market demand is also uncertain due to the unstable macro - economic environment and international trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. Long - term operations should still focus on short - selling [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 32,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 650 yuan; the contract spread between July and August is 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 505 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 27,613 lots, a decrease of 2,822 lots; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 25,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 695 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 2,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 640 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly output is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 4.88 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 140 US dollars [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, a decrease of 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 pieces, an increase of 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 21.67, a decrease of 0.62 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of June 18, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 31 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 34 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type re - feed polysilicon is 37.5 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 34 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type polysilicon is 34.5 yuan/kg. China's polysilicon imports in May were 793 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.5%, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 10,097 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Daqo Energy's stock price has declined significantly, currently trading at 18.39 yuan, representing a drop of 3.97%, and is in a state of underperformance compared to its initial public offering price [1] Fundraising and Financials - Daqo Energy was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 22, 2021, with an initial public offering of 300 million shares at a price of 21.49 yuan per share, raising a total of 644.7 million yuan [1] - The net proceeds from the IPO amounted to 606.72 million yuan, exceeding the original plan by 106.72 million yuan, with the funds intended for projects including the production of high-purity semiconductor materials and polycrystalline silicon [1] - The total issuance costs for the IPO were 37.98 million yuan, with underwriting fees accounting for 34.43 million yuan [1] Additional Stock Issuance - In 2022, Daqo Energy issued 212,396,215 A-shares at a price of 51.79 yuan per share, raising approximately 10.99 billion yuan, with net proceeds after expenses totaling about 10.94 billion yuan [2] - The funds from the 2022 issuance were fully utilized by December 31, 2023, with a total of approximately 10.95 billion yuan spent [2] - The cumulative fundraising from both the IPO and the subsequent issuance amounts to 17.447 billion yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly, mainly affected by the expected increase in the downstream polysilicon start - up and the overall macro - sentiment, with little change in the fundamentals. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly on June 18, 2025, mainly due to the expected increase in production and weak consumption [1][2][3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract 2509 opened at 7390 yuan/ton and closed at 7425 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 317763 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 55620 lots, a change of - 448 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Spot purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10400 - 10900 yuan/ton. The start - up of the organic silicon industry increased, but consumption was average, and prices were under pressure [1] Polysilicon - On June 18, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures dropped significantly, opening at 33960 yuan/ton and closing at 33370 yuan/ton, a - 2.00% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 30435 lots (43443 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 94724 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a 2.23% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a - 3.40% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 23800.00 tons (an 8.00% change), and silicon wafer production was 13.10GW (a 0.40% change) [3] Silicon Wafer - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.06 yuan/piece [3] Battery Cell - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] Component - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change), and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change) [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The strategy was mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2] Polysilicon - The futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by the expected increase in production and weak consumption. The strategy was range - bound operation, and sell hedging at high prices. There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Factors to Watch - The resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macro and capital sentiment [4] - The start - up of organic silicon enterprises [4]

赵刚还现场接待来访群众、听取积案化解情况。他强调，要扎实做好信访工作，切实把群众合理、 合法的利益诉求解决好保障好。 省直有关部门和榆林市负责同志参加活动。（记者：梁易炜） 在绥德县郝家桥村，赵刚详细了解乡村建设情况，希望当地用好红色资源，力促农文旅深度融合， 为推动乡村全面振兴再创新路子。在米脂县高西沟村，赵刚详细了解当地水土流失治理和村民生产生活 情况，强调要久久为功推进山水林田湖草沙一体化保护，努力实现人与自然和谐共生。 座谈会上，赵刚在听取延安市、榆林市工作汇报后指出，陕北地区是重要能源化工基地，要坚持稳 煤、扩油、增气并举，为保障国家能源安全作出更大贡献。要以创建能源革命创新示范区为契机，因地 制宜发展新质生产力，强化创新引领、项目支撑，加强区域产业协同和技术协作，推动产业不断向精细 化工延伸，实现上、中、下游有效衔接。要统筹做好优势产业巩固、传统产业转型、新兴产业布局，加 快构建具有陕西特色的现代能源产业集群。 6月17日至18日，省长赵刚到榆林市调研培育发展新质生产力、现代化产业体系建设和乡村振兴、 包抓信访事项化解情况，督导检查生态环境保护问题典型案例整改工作。他强调，要深入学习贯彻习近 平总 ...

本周多晶硅价格出现下降。 n型复投料成交价格区间为3. 2 0-3. 5 0万元/吨，成交均价3. 44 万元 /吨，环比下降 6.27 %。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为3. 30 -3. 40 万元 /吨，成交均价为3. 35 万元 /吨，环比 下降 2.90% 。 p型多晶硅 暂无批量成交。 光伏展后多晶硅签单数量较少，价格再度下滑。具体来看，一线大厂在目前下游要价极低的情 况下接近无法成交，其余企业价格松动较为严重。据了解，价格下跌的主要原因如下：其一为受下 游硅片产品售价急速下跌，原料价格预期随之下调。目前下游企业普遍储备了一定量的硅料库存， 新签单压价较为严重。其二为硅料企业本月产能置换情况逐渐展开，短期内呈现产量增加的态势， 市场认为减产幅度不及预期，难以做出积极反应。其三为前期部分企业为保现金，被迫以低价去 库，下游企业原料价格心理价位已经形成，暂时无法接受更高价格。 截至目前，多晶硅在产企业数量为 11 家，基本全部处于降负荷运作状态。本月部分多晶硅产 能即将恢复生产，带来一定产量增量， 6 月份产出预期上调环比约 8% 。 （阎晓宇） ...

Report Date - The report is dated June 18, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract of polysilicon fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of PS2508 was 34,010 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.93%. The trading volume was 62,835 lots, and the open interest was 51,277 lots, a net decrease of 5,586 lots [4] Outlook - The supply-demand contradiction has not further intensified after the end of the "rush installation," but the terminal pressure will gradually be transmitted upstream to the supply side. The weekly output in the second week of June remained at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 100,000 tons. It is difficult to increase production during the wet season, which will relieve the potential supply pressure in the distant months. If production cuts are implemented, the current spot and futures prices will be supported [4] - The weak reality is mainly reflected in the fact that the "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is gradually coming to an end, and the terminal photovoltaic demand has dropped to around 40GW. Although the weekly data of silicon wafers and cells has not declined rapidly, the inventory has been accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks. There are few positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period [4] - The 07 contract is currently at a discount to the price range of reclaimed feedstock, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations. The resistance to further decline is increasing. However, if the production cuts do not increase, the fundamentals will not provide a continuous driving force for a rebound, and the contract will mainly operate weakly within a range [4] Market News - As of June 17, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The transaction price range of n-type reclaimed feedstock was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the recent continuous outflow of warehouse receipts, good shipment of spot - futures traders, and improved overall commodity sentiment have led to a stable rebound in the industrial silicon futures market. However, the fundamentals are weak. If the market rebounds significantly, upstream producers can consider selling hedges at high prices. The trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation [2]. - For polysilicon, the polysilicon futures market maintains a range - bound oscillation. Near - month contracts are strong due to delivery games, while far - month contracts are weak due to poor consumption expectations. The trading strategy is neutral [5]. 3. Summary by Industry Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was mainly volatile. The main contract 2509 opened at 7360 yuan/ton and closed at 7360 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.10%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract at the close was 318,893 lots. On June 17, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 56,068 lots, a change of - 755 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming and Huangpu ports decreased slightly, while in Tianjin, the price of 553 silicon increased slightly and 3303 silicon decreased. Prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - In terms of consumption, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,400 - 10,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The start - up of silicone monomer enterprises continued to increase. After the maintenance of monomer plants in the southwest and east China ended, the maintenance plants in north China were also about to resume. The start - up rate of the silicone monomer industry was expected to approach 70%. Although the start - up situation was good, consumption was average and prices were weak [1]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly range - bound operation, upstream producers sell hedges at high prices. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 17, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 34,230 yuan/ton and closing at 34,010 yuan/ton, a closing price change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 43,443 lots (51,277 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on the day was 45,805 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a month - on - month change of 2.23%), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a month - on - month change of - 3.40%), polysilicon weekly output was 23,800.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 8.00%), and silicon wafer output was 13.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.40%) [3][4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.06 yuan/piece. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not improved substantially, and prices continue to be under pressure at low levels. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and short - term improvement is difficult. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract was 7,280 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from June 6. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a few showing minor fluctuations [8]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract in East China was 33,695 yuan/ton on June 13, down 3.01% from June 6. Spot prices of various polysilicon grades decreased, such as N - type material down 2.82% [8]. - **Organic Silicon and Related Product Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of DMC was 10,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silicone oil was 13,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [8][91]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: Prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, with N - type 183mm silicon wafers down 3.19% [8]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC M10 - 182mm battery cells was 0.27 yuan/watt on June 13, down 2.55% from the previous period [8]. - **Component Prices**: Component prices continued to decline, reflecting weak market sentiment [73]. - **Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of ADC12 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous period; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, up 2.42% [8][103]. 3.2 Cost and Production Factors - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silica stone continued to be weak, and the price of silicon coal and petroleum coke was also weak. The average price of carbon electrodes was 6,850 yuan/ton on June 13, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of graphite electrodes was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [13][28][30]. - **Electricity Costs**: The alternation of flat and dry water periods led to a decline in electricity prices in Southwest China, which reduced the production cost of industrial silicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: In the week of June 13, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang increased slightly, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased due to the adjustment of electricity prices [35][36]. - **Polysilicon Production**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.07 million tons from the previous month but down 8.09 million tons year - on - year. As of June 12, the polysilicon inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises increased and decreased, and production was expected to increase slightly [62]. - **Organic Silicon Production**: In May, the operating rate of Chinese DMC was 62.37%, up 3.79 percentage points from the previous month, and the output was 18.4 million tons. In June, the operating rate may decline due to maintenance in some regions [85]. - **Aluminum Alloy Production**: In the week of June 12, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, unchanged from the previous week [100]. 3.3 Inventory and Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of June 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous period; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 23.57 million tons, down 0.32 million tons. As of June 13, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 57,920 lots, equivalent to 28.96 million tons of spot [114]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to range from 32,000 - 36,000 yuan/ton [3].