Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence between credit rates and government bond yields, with credit spreads compressing due to stable funding and external factors such as tariff frictions and market dynamics [3][9]. - The net buying power for credit bonds, particularly "Puxin" bonds, remains strong, supporting the credit market's performance against interest rate movements [3][10]. - The report notes that the compression of credit spreads is more pronounced in "Puxin" bonds compared to perpetual bonds, with longer-term "Puxin" bonds and certain AA-rated city investment bonds leading the market [16][24]. Group 2 - The divergence in credit rates this year is attributed to the relatively poor liquidity of credit bonds and external supply-demand factors, such as the growth of credit bond ETFs, which have increased allocation demand [4][34]. - The report suggests that the current credit spread compression may have limited further upside, advising caution in trading strategies and recommending a focus on short credit positions [5][37]. - Specific investment opportunities include targeting bonds with yields above 2.0%, while maintaining a cautious stance on longer-duration perpetual bonds until new regulations are finalized [39][40].

Group 1 - The recent appointment of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister has led to a significant drop in gold prices, attributed to a stronger US dollar and a decline in geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Gold prices have experienced a sharp decline after a substantial increase of over 1000 points in six weeks, indicating a normal technical correction following a period of rapid growth [1][2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 57%, outperforming other asset classes, driven by increased allocations from central banks, funds, and consumers seeking to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [1][2] Group 2 - Central banks, once sellers of gold due to its lack of yield, are now the primary buyers, reflecting a loss of confidence in fiat currencies [2][3] - The revaluation of gold is underway as investors seek alternatives to US Treasuries, which are losing their status as a zero-risk asset due to rising US government deficits and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The last significant revaluation of gold occurred in the early 2000s with the introduction of gold ETFs, which made gold investment more accessible and supported a bull market [2][3] Group 3 - Despite rising policy interest rates from various central banks, the era of credit expansion is not over, as countries continue to pursue deficit-driven growth [3][4] - Kishida's government is expected to maintain fiscal expansion policies, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit while supporting economic growth [4][5] - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates soon, as the current political landscape suggests a preference for a weaker yen to support economic stability [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range. The major factors such as Sino - US tariff game, central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and new regulations on fund sales fees remain uncertain, causing the bond market to fluctuate repeatedly. The market has fully priced the stable capital situation and is relatively insensitive to the fundamentals, so the bond market lacks a clear downward momentum. Attention should be paid to the potential emotional impact under the expectation of the implementation of the new regulations on public fund sales fees. One should try to seize intervention opportunities during adjustments but handle it with a cautious and oscillatory mindset [24]. - The spread trading may gradually enter the second half. The market's pre - emptive trading in bond - swapping may come to an end as a whole, and the further compression space of the "CDB - Treasury bond" spread needs to continuously observe the buying momentum of the allocation portfolio [24]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Review: Stable Funds, Fluctuating Bond Market - **10 - year Treasury Bond's "N" - shaped Trend**: This week, the bond market fluctuated mainly following factors such as Sino - US tariff game, expectations of new regulations on fund sales fees, central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and restart of bond purchases. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield showed an "N" - shaped trend. In the early part of the week, the easing of tariff game boosted market risk appetite and led to bond market adjustments. Then, the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts dominated the market, with the long - end warming up significantly, showing a "stock - bond double - bull" situation. In the second half of the week, the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, combined with the "14th Five - Year Plan" opening up the market's imagination of subsequent policies and the decline of broad - money expectations, put pressure on the bond market again under the "stock - bond seesaw" effect [8]. - **Stable Funds Support the Bond Market**: This week, although the expectations of "double cuts" were dashed, the capital situation remained balanced and loose. Limited disturbances and previous large - scale outright reverse repurchase injections, along with a relatively stable rhythm of reverse repurchase operations during the week, consolidated the seasonal stability of the capital situation and provided some bottom support for the bond market. However, there seems to be an emerging pressure on the bank's liability side, with a slight increase in certificate of deposit (CD) prices. Next week, capital disturbances will increase, but thanks to the central bank's active support, the capital situation still has some support, and the pressure is expected to be relatively controllable [10]. 2. This Week's Focus: Spread Trading and Coupon Defense - **Rapid Deduction of Structural Market**: Since mid - October, the market has been trading on the expectation of the 30 - year Treasury bond swap, driving the ultra - long end down rapidly. The spread between "25 Special 6" and "25 Special 2" has quickly compressed from the high of 16BP on October 14th to around 11BP currently, approaching the central level. The CDB - Treasury bond spread has also entered a downward channel. As the market's pre - pricing of the new regulations on fund sales fees may have come to a temporary end, the probability of a significant impact in the short - term is limited, and the trading sentiment of funds has gradually recovered [15][19]. - **Divergent Performance of Credit Interest Rates in the Adjustment Market**: This week, interest - rate bonds fluctuated weakly, but credit - related varieties performed relatively well, especially the long - end credit. The support may come from two aspects: first, after the adjustment in September, the yields and spreads of credit varieties have reached relatively high levels this year. In October, although the bond market sentiment has improved, the market is still cautious in direction - selection and may allocate coupon assets for defense; second, after the quarter - end, as funds flow back to wealth management and the sentiment of funds recovers, the buying power has gradually returned, and the buying power of other products is also strong [21]. 3. Next Week's Attention: Spread Trading May Be Approaching the End - **End of the Market's Pre - emptive Bond - swapping Trading**: There is a lack of clear direction for the subsequent bond market, and the momentum for the continuous strengthening of ultra - long - end interest rates is relatively limited. The current spread between "25 Special 6" and "25 Special 2" is around 11BP, close to the central level and basically equal to the theoretical VAT tax burden of proprietary institutions. The trading activity of "25 Special 6" has also peaked and declined, indicating that the spread trading may be gradually receding [25][27]. - **Further Compression Space of "CDB - Treasury Bond" Spread**: Although the market has priced in the impact of the new regulations on fund sales fees, the impact may continue before the regulations are implemented, meaning that policy - financial bonds may still face some selling pressure. The buying power of rural commercial banks may support the sustainability of the spread repair, which needs further confirmation [31]. - **Attention to Short - and Medium - Duration Coupon - Value Varieties**: In the fourth quarter, the "deposit transfer" combined with the return of funds after the quarter - end gives some "resilience" to the wealth - management scale. The buying power may form a certain support, and one can pay attention to short - and medium - duration varieties with coupon value [33].

Core Insights - The Chinese bond market demonstrated steady growth in 2024, expanding in scale and continuing product innovation while enhancing institutional frameworks and increasing openness to foreign participation, thereby supporting the real economy [1][2]. Economic Overview - The international economy showed a divergent recovery, with the US economy exceeding expectations while Europe faced recession. Global inflation gradually receded but remained uneven across major economies, leading to differentiated monetary policies [1][2]. - China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with stable recovery in consumption and investment, providing a solid foundation for the bond market's development [1][2]. Bond Market Performance - The overall bond market operated smoothly, with issuance reaching 48.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.83%, and total outstanding bonds growing to 156.56 trillion yuan. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 1.68% by year-end [1][2]. - Trading volumes increased, with cash settlement volumes at 416.38 trillion yuan and repurchase settlement volumes at 2,190.66 trillion yuan [1]. Product Innovation - The bond market saw significant product innovations, including the launch of green bonds and new debt financing tools, as well as the successful introduction of TLAC non-capital bonds [2]. Market Structure and Regulation - Continuous improvement in market regulations included enhancements in special bond management, risk prevention, and information disclosure mechanisms, alongside strengthened unified management of credit rating agencies [2]. Foreign Participation and Open Market - The bond market's openness progressed steadily, with optimized channels for foreign institutional participation and record issuance of panda bonds. Mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" were further refined [2]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with continued growth in issuance anticipated. However, external risks such as global debt issues and trade protectionism remain concerns [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating information [23] Core Views - The bond market has experienced a structural market recently, but the structural repair market has become uncertain in the latter part of this week. It is necessary to discuss several main market concerns and issues [2][5] - The primary factor in the recent bond market repair is "chip trading." As time passes, the cost - effectiveness of re - trading for currency easing event trading and TACO trading is relatively low [2][6][8] - In the medium - term, the bond market trend has not changed. In the fourth quarter, various institutions' bond allocation will be affected by the outlook for the next year, and this year's market expectations are the most cautious in the past few years, which also impacts the bond allocation strength in the fourth quarter [2][17] - The bond market may face weak supply and weak demand. There is a "re - allocation" of low - risk and long - duration varieties due to the increase in residents' risk appetite. The supply of interest - rate bonds is less in the fourth quarter, and the strength of the "good start" is uncertain and may be relatively small [2][20] - The relationship between the technology sector and the bond market has changed this year. The marginal power of liquidity easing has weakened, and the re - balance of institutional behavior dominates the bond market. The correlation between the technology bull market and the bond bull market has become clearer [2][21][22] Summary by Directory 1. What is the primary factor in the recent bond market repair? - The reasons for the bond market repair include weakening high - frequency monthly growth indicators, the need for a "good start" in the fourth quarter, the "TACO" trading, the decline in the duration of public bond funds, and the high spread of some bonds [6] - It is essentially a "chip trading" at the weekly level after the rapid widening of various bond spreads. The overall profit - making effect in the market is not strong, and the certainty of time is greater than that of space. The cost - effectiveness of re - trading is low, and the bond fund chips are not yet in a tradable stage after clearing [6][8] 2. How to understand the current economic growth rate and economic structure? - In June this year, the two main logics for going long in the bond market were the weakening growth momentum and limited traditional incremental policies. A possible economic growth structure three years ago may represent a certain degree of "high - quality development" [11] - Traditional bond market research methods may not be applicable when the main source of risk - asset fluctuations shifts from the real - estate chain to the technology sector [11] 3. How does the pricing power of bond market institutions shift? - The bond market has experienced a structural decline in September and a structural repair after the holiday. The participation of public funds in the TACO trading has decreased significantly compared to April this year, and securities firms are more involved, mainly with neutral strategies [12][14] - In the short term, there are opportunities to narrow the spread, but the medium - term trend has not changed. The adjustment of redemption fees and the decline in the bond market's profit - making effect will affect the bond allocation of various institutions in the fourth quarter [17] 4. Bond market supply and demand - The bond market may face weak supply and weak demand. There is a "re - allocation" of low - risk and long - duration varieties due to the increase in residents' risk appetite [20] - The supply of interest - rate bonds is less in the fourth quarter, and the strength of the "good start" is uncertain and may be relatively small [20] 5. How to view the relationship between technology and bonds? - Historically, the correlation between the technology sector and the bond market was weak. But this year, the marginal power of liquidity easing has weakened, and the re - balance of institutional behavior has led to a "bear steep" situation in the bond market [21] - The technology sector's market value has exceeded that of the financial sector, and it has become a performance - driven sector. The impact of the real - estate chain on the A - share market has weakened significantly, and the correlation between the technology bull market and the bond bull market has become clearer [21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still mainly in a volatile state. Investors should be cautious about blind optimism and adopt a strategy of entering and exiting on the left side without lingering. In terms of investment portfolios, a "dumbbell + small - band" approach should be used. The short - end can use credit bonds under 2 years and interest - rate bonds under 3 years as the allocation base, and the long - end can use 30 - year interest - rate bonds for small - band trading [1][3]. - The Fourth Plenary Session's communique implies positive expressions. The equity bull market may continue, and investors should have confidence and perseverance in it. It also has implications for GDP growth, policy measures, investment themes, and the importance of domestic demand and consumption [11]. - The US is facing economic pressure due to tariff frictions. The long - term employment pressure is significantly greater than the temporary inflation pressure. The Fed may implement "three consecutive rate cuts". The US has a strong motivation to ease relations with China, and investors should expect a final agreement to be reached [23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Observation 3.1.1 How to View the Enlightenment of the Fourth Plenary Session on the Capital Market? - The communique implies positive signals for the equity bull market. It emphasizes maintaining a reasonable GDP growth rate in the long - term, anticipating more policy measures, clarifying investment themes such as advanced manufacturing and technology, and increasing the importance of domestic demand and consumption. In the short term, the meeting may boost the stock market, and the bond market may adjust accordingly, but will later be affected by other factors [11][15][17]. 3.1.2 US Tariffs Lead to Recession, Weaker Bargaining Chips, and Strong Motivation for Easing - The fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations is taking place, with the location in an Asian city this time, closer to China's comfort zone. China's response to the US's TACO behavior is more mature, using rare - earth export and soybean import as countermeasures. The US is facing economic pressure, with employment pressure greater than inflation pressure, and the Fed may cut rates. The US has a motivation to ease relations with China, and a final agreement is expected [21][22][23]. 3.1.3 Bond Market Strategy: Enter and Exit on the Left Side without Lingering, and Adopt a "Dumbbell + Small - Band" Approach - The bond market is in a volatile state. A fast - in and fast - out strategy of buying on dips and taking profits on rallies is relatively effective. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds have changed, and their core oscillation ranges are estimated. The investment portfolio should use a "dumbbell + small - band" approach, with short - end and long - end allocations as described above [27][28]. 3.2 Bond Market Asset Performance No specific summary content is provided in the given text for this part, only some related charts are mentioned. 3.3 High - Frequency Entity Tracking 3.3.1 Price - Related - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index and international crude oil prices rose, with prices of agricultural products showing a mixed trend. Brent crude oil rose by $4.93 per barrel, and WTI crude oil rose by $4.33 per barrel. Vegetable and meat prices had different changes, with some rising and some falling [39]. 3.3.2 Industry - Related - Industrial - related data improved slightly this week. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose, glass prices fell slightly, and coking coal prices rose. Supply - side data such as blast furnace and petroleum asphalt开工率 were better than last week [45]. 3.3.3 Investment and Real Estate - Related - This week, investment and real estate - related data on the demand side showed a slight recovery, with transaction volume data increasing, but the growth rate was lower than the historical average. The second - hand housing listing price index declined further, and the cumulative value of housing completion area increased compared to last month but was still lower than the historical average [55]. 3.3.4 Travel and Consumption - Related - This week, travel and consumption data were mixed, generally in line with the season. Subway passenger volumes in major cities increased, movie box - office revenues decreased, passenger car retail sales decreased but were higher than the historical average, and the number of domestic flights increased [61].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the implementation of moderately loose monetary policies by central banks, multinational capital will flow back, leading to a rising cycle in the stock market [3][4]. - In September, the overall surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales reached $51 billion, approximately 362.6 billion RMB, marking a historic high [5]. - The current account surplus was $63.9 billion, about 450 billion RMB, which is the highest in nearly a decade [10]. Group 2 - The difference between profit and cash flow is highlighted, indicating that while profits may appear strong, cash flow issues can hinder economic activity [18][41]. - The article discusses the importance of cash flow in resolving various economic issues, including local government debt and the overall economic recovery [22][40]. - M1 money supply is noted to be rising, which typically correlates with a bullish stock market, suggesting that the stock market's upward trend is expected to continue [25][29]. Group 3 - Foreign capital is observed to be selling domestic bonds while buying stocks, indicating a shift in investment strategy [31][38]. - The article mentions that the capital account recorded a deficit of $12.1 billion, with significant outflows in securities investment [34][35]. - The political factors affecting the capital market are acknowledged, but the overall direction is seen as positive [39].

2025 年 10 月 25 日 固定收益专题研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、非金永续债的发行扩容与融资结构； 2、永续债的条款利差优势；3、永续债行情的滞后性。 投资要点 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 证券分析师： 杨佩霖 S0350525100004 [Table_Title] 非金永续债，有收益吗？ 非金永续策略（一） 最近一年走势 相关报告 | 1、 | 非金永续债的发行特征 4 | | --- | --- | | | 1.1、 年内非金永续债发行扩容，产业债占主导 4 | | | 1.2、 5 年期发行扩容，中高等级占比较高 7 | | 2、 | 永续债已调整出配置价值 8 | | | 2.1、 条款利差处于高位 8 | | | 2.2、 关注永续债利差修复的滞后性 9 | | 3、 | 风险提示 10 | yangpl@ghzq.com.cn 《固定收益点评：赎回新规与税优政策，如何重塑 债市？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-10-24 《债券研究周报：当前债市，买方谨慎，卖方乐观 ...

【美国制造业和服务业调查后美债回吐涨幅，市场关注美联储降息动态】美国制造业和服务业调查凸显 坚韧，美债回吐早前因通胀报告疲软引发的涨幅。2年期国债收益率收复大部分跌幅，此前数据显示美 国10月商业活动增速加快。10年期收益率一度跌4个基点，后跌幅收窄至约1个基点。 早些时候，延迟 发布的通胀报告显示消费者价格涨幅低于预估，强化市场对美联储下周和12月降息预期，美债一度走 强。但通胀仍超目标，投资者对进一步拉低收益率心存顾虑。 投资组合经理表示，市场已消化大量宽 松预期，难有进一步跟进走势。利率互换显示，交易员几乎完全消化美联储下周降息25个基点情景，预 计12月再行动，未来12个月累计降息幅度料为120个基点。 9月CPI报告显示，核心CPI环比走高0.2%， 低于预期；整体CPI同比上升3.0%，仍高于美联储目标。投资级信用与宏观策略主管称，报告令人鼓 舞，为美联储短期内继续宽松提供契机。 美债10月截至周三回报率达1.3%，有望创2月以来最佳月度表 现。多重因素推动上涨，此前部分交易员担忧数据超预期拖累债市，有策略师建议退出美债看涨头寸。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Insights - The overall and core CPI data for September in the U.S. showed a slight rebound but remained below expectations, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury futures and a steepening yield curve [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The yield curve exhibited a bull steepening, with the 2-year and 5-year yields decreasing by approximately 4 basis points compared to Thursday's close [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points, reaching around 3.96% [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The OIS corresponding to the Federal Reserve's meeting indicates a slightly more dovish stance, with market expectations for a total rate cut of 49 basis points over the remaining two meetings this year [1] - The expectation for the October meeting remains around 24 basis points [1]