编者按：12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开。这次会议是在"十四五"规划即将圆满收官，"十五五"即将开启之际召 开的一次重要会议。会议全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前经济形势，系统部署2026年经济工作，为"十五五"开好局、 起好步打下重要基础。本刊特推出系列评论员文章，深度解读中央经济工作会议精神。 2025年中央经济工作会议立足"十四五"收官与"十五五"谋划的历史交汇点，明确提出"稳中求进、提质增效"政策主基调，将"坚 持内需主导""坚持创新驱动""坚持对外开放"列为重点任务。中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件 和基本趋势没有变，其在提质升级中释放的市场红利、技术红利与制度红利，正通过务实合作源源不断惠及中亚国家，为地区 共同现代化注入强劲而持久的动能。 面向未来，中国将持续落实中央经济工作会议部署，深化与中亚国家在贸易投资、科技创新、互联互通等领域的合作，与中亚 国家携手筑牢合作根基、拓展合作空间，让高质量发展成果更好惠及双方人民，为中亚地区繁荣稳定注入持久动力。 中国始终秉持创新是引领发展的第一动力理念，为中亚国家产业升级提供精准技术赋能。中央经济工作会议强 ...

"必须高度重视强化国有企业的内在激励作用，构建收益、风险与成本相匹配的运行机制，激发人 民的创造力。"中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长吴晓求在会上表示，对于国有经济而言，改革、国际 化与强化技术创新是未来发展中最重要的任务。 "十四五"时期，国资央企接续推进国企改革三年行动和改革深化提升行动，不断向制约高质量发展 的痛点、难点发起攻坚，持续健全中国特色国有企业现代公司治理就是其中的关键一环。 面向"十五五"，中央企业如何促进科技创新和产业创新深度融合？怎样纵深推进国企改革、促进现 代新国企加速成长？近日，在一场国有经济研讨会上，业内专家立足国有企业改革实践，分享国有经济 理论研究成果。 C919大飞机商业运营、"奋斗者"号极限深潜、嫦娥六号月背采样、深中通道贯通运行……近年 来，国资央企不断提升科技供给的档位，既维护产业链供应链安全，也为新质生产力发展提供"源头活 水"。 在辽宁大学经济学院院长李政看来，"十四五"时期，国有企业创新能力显著增强，成为破局突 围"卡脖子"技术和关键核心技术的攻坚者、绿色发展的引领者、安全与发展的守护者，但同时国有企业 仍需花力气破解创新激励机制不完善、原始创新相对薄弱等短板弱项， ...

我们的中观景气模型显示，11月全行业景气指数继续回落，部分受假期错位效应对10月产量等数据的扰动。分板块看， TMT、上游资源、公共产业近3个月景气改善幅度居前：1）AI链：AI应用端提速，游戏、软件景气回升，资本开支维持 韧性下存储、元件、通信设备等景气爬坡；2）涨价链：有色、煤炭、部分化工品（如化纤、磷化工等）、电池/光伏材 料等景气上行；3）资本品：电新、通用自动化等景气或处于回升通道中；4）大众消费品：院线、化妆品、乳品等景气 回升；5）基建链：建筑业PMI走强，大小螺纹价差收敛；6）部分独立景气周期品种如军工、医药、保险景气亦改善。 政策前瞻：政治局和中央经济工作会议前政策预期或升温 12月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议前政策预期或逐步升温，结合近期中央高层密集调研、部委和地方有关"十五五"建 议学习与落实来看，预计部署重点包括：1）宏观政策更加积极+靠前发力；2）着力扩大内需，消费拉动重心从商品转向 服务消费；3）坚持科技主线不变，加快推进新旧动能转换，产业政策重点集中在数字经济、智能制造、未来产业与科技 创新等。参照历史经验，中央经济工作会议前一周上涨概率较高、大盘风格占优，历史上社服/家电/非银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of HKD 11.32 billion, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, despite a decline in EBITDA [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 240.66 billion, a 3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][10]. - EBITDA amounted to HKD 56.98 billion, showing a 9% decrease year-on-year [1][5]. - The EBIT for the same period was HKD 23.16 billion, down from HKD 30.96 billion in 2024 [2][5]. Business Segments - The port and related business generated revenue of HKD 23.60 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in throughput at key ports [9][10]. - The company’s cash reserves exceeded HKD 120 billion, indicating strong liquidity [4][11]. Strategic Developments - The company completed a significant merger with Vodafone UK in May 2025, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market presence [5][7]. - The merged entity plans to invest GBP 13 billion in capital expenditures to accelerate network deployment and aims for GBP 700 million in annual cost synergies by the fifth year post-merger [7][11]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued volatility in global trade and consumer demand due to geopolitical risks and trade disputes, but expects to achieve substantial profit growth in the port sector [11][12]. - The stock price has risen over 30% year-to-date, closing at HKD 52 on August 14, 2025, with a market capitalization nearing HKD 199.2 billion [12]. Regulatory Considerations - The company is currently in discussions regarding the sale of its global port assets, which requires approval from various regulatory bodies, and the completion of this transaction is expected to take longer than initially planned [3][15][18].

Group 1: Housing Rental Regulations - The "Housing Rental Regulations" was officially announced by the State Council, set to take effect on September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize rental activities and protect the rights of parties involved [1] - The regulations consist of 7 chapters and 50 articles, addressing rental activities, behaviors of rental companies, and supervision management [1] - The rental population in China is nearing 260 million in 2023 and is expected to exceed 300 million by 2025, indicating significant market potential [1][2] Group 2: Economic Performance of Major Provinces - Six major economic provinces reported GDP growth rates exceeding the national average of 5.3% in the first half of the year, with Zhejiang leading at 5.8% [3] - Guangdong province, however, showed disappointing growth at 4.2%, significantly below the national level, primarily due to a 9.7% decline in fixed asset investment [3][4] - The industrial sectors in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Henan provinces were key drivers of economic growth, with private enterprises boosting foreign trade in Zhejiang [3][4] Group 3: Lottery Sales - National lottery sales reached a record high of 317.85 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - The growth rate of lottery sales has been slowing, with a significant drop from 36.5% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2024 [5][6] - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to instant lottery games, reflecting a shift in purchasing behavior amid economic uncertainties [6] Group 4: U.S. Credit Outlook - Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative," citing increased uncertainty and a slowdown in economic growth [7] - The U.S. government is expected to maintain a high deficit, with projections indicating a debt-to-GDP ratio of 135% by 2029 [7][8] - The downgrade suggests a higher likelihood of credit rating reductions for affected industries, impacting bond prices and financing conditions [7][8] Group 5: Lithium Battery Exports - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached a record high of $34.102 billion in the first half of the year, marking a 25.14% year-on-year increase [9] - The export volume of lithium-ion batteries increased by 17.52% to 2.156 billion units, despite ongoing low prices for raw materials like lithium carbonate [9][10] - The growth in exports is attributed to factors such as increased overseas demand and domestic production capacity expansion [9][10] Group 6: JD's New Business Model - JD launched its first self-operated takeaway store, "Qixian Xiaochu," focusing on quality food without pre-prepared dishes [11][12] - The store operates on a model that combines takeaway and self-pickup, aiming to address food safety concerns [11][12] - The operational challenges include maintaining food quality and managing the risks associated with the restaurant business model [12] Group 7: Neuralink's Surgical Milestone - Neuralink completed two brain-machine interface surgeries in one day, marking a significant advancement in its operations [13] - The company aims to perform 20 to 30 surgeries by 2025, focusing on treating severe conditions like ALS and spinal cord injuries [13][14] - The efficiency of surgeries has improved significantly due to advancements in robotic technology, which reduces reliance on human surgeons [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - A-share market is driven by "economic recovery + interest rate decline + deposit relocation", and the breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points marks the opening of a new upward space. The A-share "bull market" has shifted from expectation to reality, and investors can focus on the opportunity to go long on stock index futures on dips [2][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through and closed above the key level of 3450 points, with three consecutive days of stable gains. Other indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose in tandem. The trading volume of the two markets increased significantly, showing a healthy "volume-price increase" technical pattern, opening up upward space for the second-half market [3]. Economic Situation - In 2025, China's economy continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, significantly higher than 4.8% in the fourth quarter of last year [4]. - The new quality productivity-related industries improved notably, laying a solid foundation for further economic recovery. Policy-driven consumption played a key role, with durable goods like cars and home appliances directly benefiting from dual subsidies from the central and local governments. During the "618" promotion period, sales data in new consumption areas such as beauty, small home appliances, and pet economy exceeded expectations, indicating the accumulation of domestic demand resilience [6]. Policy Environment - Fiscal policy: In 2025, the deficit rate is expected to further increase, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued, with funds mainly invested in hard technology and people's livelihood areas. The focus of fiscal efforts is shifting from traditional infrastructure to promoting domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy: The central bank has set the tone of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and "maintaining ample liquidity". In 2025, policy interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio are expected to be further lowered [7]. - Real estate policy: Real estate policies have shifted from "protecting projects" to "protecting real estate enterprises", and a storage model is being explored to stabilize housing prices [7]. - Capital market policy: The "New Nine - Article Guidelines" for the capital market promotes investment - side reforms, aiming to improve shareholder returns and encourage mergers and acquisitions, providing institutional guarantees for the entry of medium - and long - term funds [7]. Corporate Earnings - After the profit adjustment in 2024, A - share corporate profits are expected to recover in 2025. In April 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China turned positive year - on - year, reaching 1.5%. Most institutions predict that the profit growth rate of the entire A - share market will show an inflection point of improvement around mid - 2025, with an annual growth rate expected to reach 6.5%. Emerging industries may become the main force for profit growth [8][10]. Global Environment - The Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle in 2025, which will have a positive impact on the Chinese stock market. Historically, Fed rate cuts tend to reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar, prompting international funds to flow from US dollar assets to emerging markets. The appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate further enhances the attractiveness of A - shares to foreign capital [13]. Interest Rate Environment - China's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and the decline in interest rates directly reduces corporate financing costs, which is particularly beneficial to high - leverage industries (such as real estate and infrastructure) and R & D - intensive technology companies. Historical data shows that in the middle and late stages of interest rate decline, the stock market rally often lasts for more than 4 months [14]. Market Liquidity - The current A - share liquidity shows a triple - support pattern: foreign capital is flowing back, with recent net inflows into the Chinese stock market hitting a new high; the investment ratio limit of insurance funds in equities has been increased by 5%, and it is expected that social security, insurance, and annuities will net buy more than 200 billion yuan of A - shares in 2025; leveraged funds are active, indicating a significant increase in on - site risk appetite [17]. Resident Savings - In March 2025, China's household deposits exceeded 160 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits reaching 107,000 yuan, significantly higher than the GDP of 135 trillion yuan. Households hold about 40 trillion yuan in excess savings. With the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, this part of the funds faces a strong need for re - allocation [18]. - The transfer of household savings to the capital market has become an irreversible trend. Recently, the one - year fixed - deposit rate has dropped to around 1.5%, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index has risen to 3.2%, and the average dividend yield of the constituent stocks of the dividend index exceeds 5%. The relative attractiveness of equity assets is prominent [21].