宏观日报 | 2026-02-03 生产行业：1）市场监管总局会同中央空管办、国家发展改革委等十部门联合发布《低空经济标准体系建设指南（2025 年版）》，重点围绕低空航空器、低空基础设施、低空空中交通管理、安全监管和应用场景五大核心领域，建立技 术标准与管理规范融合、国内标准与国际规则融合、强制性标准与推荐性标准融合、基础标准与场景标准融合的"四 维融合"标准供给体系。 服务行业：1）2日，上海收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房项目工作实质性启动。上海市住建委有关负责人表示， 上海将强化供给与需求匹配、租赁与购置联动，形成"政策引导、市场运作、多方协同、群众得益"的良好格局。 同时，上海还将推动保障性租赁住房筹措模式创新，探索在二手房市场中收购存量住宅，进一步拓宽保障房源筹 措渠道；并通过存量房源收购，有效缩短建设周期，优化区域布局，完善房型结构，加快形成有效供给。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：铝、镍价格回落较多。2）农业：鸡蛋价格小幅回落。3）能源：国际原油价格回升。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 地产下游回落 中观事件总览 中游： ...

根据合作协议，绿地将举全集团之力，把商贸、金融、康养酒旅、城市更新、基建等多个具有竞争力的 优势业务引入海南。上述协议的签署，标志着绿地集团全面深度融入海南自贸港建设战略正式落地启 动，揭开了绿地集团在海南发展（002163）的新篇章。 据介绍，绿地集团将全力深化新时期"沪琼合作"，打造合作新模式、新标杆。此次签订的相关合作协议 内容主要包括：一是与海垦集团合作，围绕城市更新、资产优化升级、农产品贸易、进出口贸易四大领 域，在存量土地资源盘活、酒店旅居资产提质升级、热带农产品销售渠道拓宽等领域全面合作；二是与 海南旅投合作，合作推进新能源汽车出口业务，聚焦土地盘活开发、高品质酒店旅游运营、免税业务布 局等板块，携手开拓文旅康养业务、共探免税消费新场景；三是与东方市合作，统筹推进城市基础设施 建设、城市更新改造、文化旅游融合发展等工作。 本报讯(记者张文湘)1月20日，绿地控股（600606）集团股份有限公司(以下简称"绿地集团")宣布，与海 南国资系统重要核心企业海南农垦集团有限公司(以下简称"海垦集团")、海南省旅游投资集团有限公司 (以下简称"海南旅投")以及东方市人民政府等，签署一批战略合作协议及具体项 ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, Guangdong's GDP reached 10.52 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the national total, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][9][10] - The Pearl River Delta's nine cities contributed 81.8% to Guangdong's GDP, with Shenzhen leading at a growth rate of 5.5%, while cities like Zhongshan and Foshan lagged behind [1][12][14] Export Dynamics - Guangdong's exports totaled 4.98 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, accounting for 22.5% of the national total [1][15][21] - The export structure is shifting towards high-tech products, with mechanical and electrical products making up 68.4% of total exports, and significant growth in integrated circuits and other high-tech items [1][22][21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in the first ten months, significantly lower than the national average decline of 1.7% [2][27] - Despite the overall decline, investments in new productive forces, particularly in internet services and software, showed substantial growth, indicating a shift towards modernization [2][30] Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales in Guangdong grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with a notable increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to 2024, although still below the national growth rate [2][34][35] - The recovery in consumption is tempered by slow income growth, with real disposable income increasing by 4.7%, lower than the national average of 5.2% [2][34][35] Outlook for 2026 - The economic growth for Guangdong in 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, characterized by resilient external demand, potential for internal demand, and ongoing transformation of economic drivers [2][41][42] - The diversification of export markets and structural upgrades in industries are expected to support trade growth, particularly with emerging markets like ASEAN and the Middle East [2][46][47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the policy tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" as China transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The conference highlights the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver," "innovation-driven development," and "opening up to the outside world" as key tasks for economic growth [1] Group 2 - China is constructing a domestic demand-driven growth system, which provides stable and diverse market opportunities for Central Asian countries, with a focus on boosting consumption and increasing residents' income [2] - In the first five months of this year, trade between China and the five Central Asian countries reached 286.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with imports from these countries growing by 21% [2] Group 3 - The conference underscores the significance of innovation as the primary driving force for development, aligning with Central Asian countries' needs for industrial upgrading and digital transformation [4] - Cooperation in areas such as smart agriculture, digital payments, 5G communication, and smart cities is flourishing, promoting digital upgrades in local industries [4] Group 4 - China is committed to opening up and promoting win-win cooperation across multiple fields, establishing a solid institutional guarantee for China-Central Asia cooperation [7] - By June 2025, China's investment in Central Asian countries is expected to exceed 30 billion USD, with completed contract revenues in engineering projects reaching 75.6 billion USD, covering various sectors including energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and digital economy [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation within state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to enhance their growth and reform during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. - SOEs have significantly improved their innovation capabilities, becoming key players in overcoming critical technological challenges and leading green development [1][2]. - The need for SOEs to address weaknesses in innovation incentive mechanisms and original innovation is highlighted, along with the importance of deep integration between digital economy and real economy [1][2]. Group 2 - Talent is identified as the primary resource for technological innovation, and creating an innovative ecosystem is crucial for stimulating the creative potential of SOE personnel [2]. - The ongoing reforms in SOEs focus on addressing high-quality development challenges, with a particular emphasis on modern corporate governance as a key component [2]. - Data from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission indicates that nearly 97% of eligible subsidiaries have established management systems that empower boards of directors [2]. Group 3 - SOEs play a vital role in stabilizing the national economy, accounting for approximately 80% of crude oil, 70% of natural gas, and 60% of electricity supply, thus ensuring energy security and food supply [3]. - Experts assert that SOEs contribute to a stable environment for the development of the private economy while striving to enhance their own strength and quality [3]. - Continuous theoretical and practical innovation is deemed essential for the ongoing development of SOEs, with a call for summarizing experiences from SOE reforms to provide a solid theoretical foundation and forward-looking suggestions [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - The funding environment has improved, with signs of recovery in allocation-type funds and a reduction in insurance risk factors potentially leading to increased equity asset allocation [2][4] - Recent trends indicate a marginal slowdown in trading funds, while private equity registrations have slowed to 178, but product issuance and positioning are expected to accelerate [2][3] Group 2: Economic Trends - The TMT sector, upstream resources, and public industries have shown significant improvement in economic sentiment over the past three months, with AI applications, price increases in commodities, and capital goods leading the way [3][4] - The construction PMI has strengthened, indicating a positive outlook for the infrastructure chain, while consumer goods such as cinema, cosmetics, and dairy products are also experiencing a recovery [3][4] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Anticipation of policy changes ahead of the December Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference is rising, with expectations for more proactive macro policies and a focus on expanding domestic demand [4] - Historical data suggests a higher probability of market gains leading up to the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly in sectors like consumer services and home appliances [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a phase of recovery, with potential for a "spring rally" to begin in late December, emphasizing a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors [4] - Key sectors to focus on include aviation equipment, AI chains, and power equipment for growth, while non-ferrous metals and certain chemicals are highlighted for cyclical investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of HKD 11.32 billion, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, despite a decline in EBITDA [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 240.66 billion, a 3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][10]. - EBITDA amounted to HKD 56.98 billion, showing a 9% decrease year-on-year [1][5]. - The EBIT for the same period was HKD 23.16 billion, down from HKD 30.96 billion in 2024 [2][5]. Business Segments - The port and related business generated revenue of HKD 23.60 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in throughput at key ports [9][10]. - The company’s cash reserves exceeded HKD 120 billion, indicating strong liquidity [4][11]. Strategic Developments - The company completed a significant merger with Vodafone UK in May 2025, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market presence [5][7]. - The merged entity plans to invest GBP 13 billion in capital expenditures to accelerate network deployment and aims for GBP 700 million in annual cost synergies by the fifth year post-merger [7][11]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued volatility in global trade and consumer demand due to geopolitical risks and trade disputes, but expects to achieve substantial profit growth in the port sector [11][12]. - The stock price has risen over 30% year-to-date, closing at HKD 52 on August 14, 2025, with a market capitalization nearing HKD 199.2 billion [12]. Regulatory Considerations - The company is currently in discussions regarding the sale of its global port assets, which requires approval from various regulatory bodies, and the completion of this transaction is expected to take longer than initially planned [3][15][18].

Group 1: Housing Rental Regulations - The "Housing Rental Regulations" was officially announced by the State Council, set to take effect on September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize rental activities and protect the rights of parties involved [1] - The regulations consist of 7 chapters and 50 articles, addressing rental activities, behaviors of rental companies, and supervision management [1] - The rental population in China is nearing 260 million in 2023 and is expected to exceed 300 million by 2025, indicating significant market potential [1][2] Group 2: Economic Performance of Major Provinces - Six major economic provinces reported GDP growth rates exceeding the national average of 5.3% in the first half of the year, with Zhejiang leading at 5.8% [3] - Guangdong province, however, showed disappointing growth at 4.2%, significantly below the national level, primarily due to a 9.7% decline in fixed asset investment [3][4] - The industrial sectors in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Henan provinces were key drivers of economic growth, with private enterprises boosting foreign trade in Zhejiang [3][4] Group 3: Lottery Sales - National lottery sales reached a record high of 317.85 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - The growth rate of lottery sales has been slowing, with a significant drop from 36.5% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2024 [5][6] - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to instant lottery games, reflecting a shift in purchasing behavior amid economic uncertainties [6] Group 4: U.S. Credit Outlook - Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative," citing increased uncertainty and a slowdown in economic growth [7] - The U.S. government is expected to maintain a high deficit, with projections indicating a debt-to-GDP ratio of 135% by 2029 [7][8] - The downgrade suggests a higher likelihood of credit rating reductions for affected industries, impacting bond prices and financing conditions [7][8] Group 5: Lithium Battery Exports - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached a record high of $34.102 billion in the first half of the year, marking a 25.14% year-on-year increase [9] - The export volume of lithium-ion batteries increased by 17.52% to 2.156 billion units, despite ongoing low prices for raw materials like lithium carbonate [9][10] - The growth in exports is attributed to factors such as increased overseas demand and domestic production capacity expansion [9][10] Group 6: JD's New Business Model - JD launched its first self-operated takeaway store, "Qixian Xiaochu," focusing on quality food without pre-prepared dishes [11][12] - The store operates on a model that combines takeaway and self-pickup, aiming to address food safety concerns [11][12] - The operational challenges include maintaining food quality and managing the risks associated with the restaurant business model [12] Group 7: Neuralink's Surgical Milestone - Neuralink completed two brain-machine interface surgeries in one day, marking a significant advancement in its operations [13] - The company aims to perform 20 to 30 surgeries by 2025, focusing on treating severe conditions like ALS and spinal cord injuries [13][14] - The efficiency of surgeries has improved significantly due to advancements in robotic technology, which reduces reliance on human surgeons [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - A-share market is driven by "economic recovery + interest rate decline + deposit relocation", and the breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points marks the opening of a new upward space. The A-share "bull market" has shifted from expectation to reality, and investors can focus on the opportunity to go long on stock index futures on dips [2][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through and closed above the key level of 3450 points, with three consecutive days of stable gains. Other indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose in tandem. The trading volume of the two markets increased significantly, showing a healthy "volume-price increase" technical pattern, opening up upward space for the second-half market [3]. Economic Situation - In 2025, China's economy continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, significantly higher than 4.8% in the fourth quarter of last year [4]. - The new quality productivity-related industries improved notably, laying a solid foundation for further economic recovery. Policy-driven consumption played a key role, with durable goods like cars and home appliances directly benefiting from dual subsidies from the central and local governments. During the "618" promotion period, sales data in new consumption areas such as beauty, small home appliances, and pet economy exceeded expectations, indicating the accumulation of domestic demand resilience [6]. Policy Environment - Fiscal policy: In 2025, the deficit rate is expected to further increase, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued, with funds mainly invested in hard technology and people's livelihood areas. The focus of fiscal efforts is shifting from traditional infrastructure to promoting domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy: The central bank has set the tone of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and "maintaining ample liquidity". In 2025, policy interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio are expected to be further lowered [7]. - Real estate policy: Real estate policies have shifted from "protecting projects" to "protecting real estate enterprises", and a storage model is being explored to stabilize housing prices [7]. - Capital market policy: The "New Nine - Article Guidelines" for the capital market promotes investment - side reforms, aiming to improve shareholder returns and encourage mergers and acquisitions, providing institutional guarantees for the entry of medium - and long - term funds [7]. Corporate Earnings - After the profit adjustment in 2024, A - share corporate profits are expected to recover in 2025. In April 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China turned positive year - on - year, reaching 1.5%. Most institutions predict that the profit growth rate of the entire A - share market will show an inflection point of improvement around mid - 2025, with an annual growth rate expected to reach 6.5%. Emerging industries may become the main force for profit growth [8][10]. Global Environment - The Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle in 2025, which will have a positive impact on the Chinese stock market. Historically, Fed rate cuts tend to reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar, prompting international funds to flow from US dollar assets to emerging markets. The appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate further enhances the attractiveness of A - shares to foreign capital [13]. Interest Rate Environment - China's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and the decline in interest rates directly reduces corporate financing costs, which is particularly beneficial to high - leverage industries (such as real estate and infrastructure) and R & D - intensive technology companies. Historical data shows that in the middle and late stages of interest rate decline, the stock market rally often lasts for more than 4 months [14]. Market Liquidity - The current A - share liquidity shows a triple - support pattern: foreign capital is flowing back, with recent net inflows into the Chinese stock market hitting a new high; the investment ratio limit of insurance funds in equities has been increased by 5%, and it is expected that social security, insurance, and annuities will net buy more than 200 billion yuan of A - shares in 2025; leveraged funds are active, indicating a significant increase in on - site risk appetite [17]. Resident Savings - In March 2025, China's household deposits exceeded 160 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits reaching 107,000 yuan, significantly higher than the GDP of 135 trillion yuan. Households hold about 40 trillion yuan in excess savings. With the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, this part of the funds faces a strong need for re - allocation [18]. - The transfer of household savings to the capital market has become an irreversible trend. Recently, the one - year fixed - deposit rate has dropped to around 1.5%, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index has risen to 3.2%, and the average dividend yield of the constituent stocks of the dividend index exceeds 5%. The relative attractiveness of equity assets is prominent [21].