Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2605合约涨幅0.08%，收于2385 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日深加工企业收购价稳中有涨。中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购均价2253元/吨，较前一日持平；华北深加工收购均价2452元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日涨8元/吨。 | | | | | 2、昨日南北港口价格北强南弱。中国粮油商务网数据显示锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2360-2370元/吨，低价较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港成交价2490元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日持平。 | | | | | 3、Wind数据显示截至3月18日山东地区小麦-玉米价差为140元/吨，较前一日收窄1 | | | | | 0元/吨。 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - For the corn market, the international oil price remains high due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, which boosts the international corn market price and benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast production area is less than 30%. As the corn price rises, the willingness of growers to sell increases, and the market supply increases. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid replenishment, while deep - processing enterprises' resuming operation supports the purchase price. The rumored release of overdue rice and the adjustment of the lowest - price wheat auction policy may suppress corn demand. The corn futures price fluctuates at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For the corn starch market, as the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers, the industry's operating rate increases, and the supply - side pressure rises. However, the increase in the operating rate is slow, downstream demand improves, and the industry inventory slightly decreases. The starch market's upward momentum weakens, and it may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2382 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2721 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 19 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is 1 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1358592 hands, down 26004 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 248048 hands, up 5182 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holdings for corn are - 214100 hands, up 24709 hands; for corn starch, they are - 21117 hands, up 4579 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 78333 hands, and for corn starch are 6255 hands, with no change [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 454.5 cents/bushel, down 0.25 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total holding volume (weekly) is 1723308 contracts, up 105847 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions (weekly) are 257781 contracts, up 167722 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2455.49 yuan/ton, up 3.14 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2830 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2138.16 yuan/ton, up 53.09 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 65 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 73.49 yuan/ton, up 7.14 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 737 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 19 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; in Ukraine is 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly) is 69.6 tons, down 19.6 tons; at northern ports is 219 tons, up 19 tons [2]. - Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 337.7 tons, down 6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly) is 120.3 tons, down 0.6 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 30.06 days, down 0.19 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 126.86 tons, up 4.91 tons [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 55.61%, up 1.53 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 58.8%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; in Hebei is 141 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton; in Jilin is 5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.65%, down 0.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.28%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 14.28%, down 1.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 14.28%, down 1.35 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Trump administration has taken emergency action to find alternative fertilizer sources for US farmers before the spring plowing due to the Iran war cutting off key supply channels [2]. - From March 1 to 13, Brazil's corn export volume was 48.4 tons, compared with 87.1 tons in the whole of March 2025 [2]. - The ongoing US - Iran conflict affects the international oil price, which boosts the international corn market price and has a positive impact on the domestic market [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **General Market Situation**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, driving up international oil prices and influencing the prices of agricultural products. The postponement of Sino - US trade negotiations affects the export expectations of US soybeans, but the strong biodiesel consumption expectation supports the prices of related agricultural products. [3][5][8] - **Commodity - Specific Views**: - **Soybean - Related Products**: CBOT soybeans are expected to have limited downward adjustment space and are bullish in the future. Domestic soybean - related products such as soybean oil, soybean meal, and soybean No. 1 and No. 2 are also affected by cost - side support and have upward potential. [3][5][8] - **Vegetable Oils**: The production expectation of biodiesel in the international market is positive, which is beneficial to domestic soybean oil. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by factors such as production expectations and US biodiesel policies. The price of palm oil is affected by factors such as export policies and energy price fluctuations. [3][4] - **Feed and Grains**: The price of corn is affected by factors such as supply and demand, energy prices, and wheat policies, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. Corn starch follows the cost of corn. [7] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The pig futures market is affected by factors such as feed prices and production capacity reduction expectations. The egg futures market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and production costs. [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Market Logic and Strategy for Each Variety**: - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 is expected to run strongly, and long positions can be held cautiously; soybean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate, and long positions can be established after stabilization. [12] - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to rise in a fluctuating manner, and long positions can be held; rapeseed oil is expected to run in a fluctuating manner, and it is recommended to wait and see; palm oil is expected to rise in a fluctuating manner, and long positions can be held after reducing positions. [12] - **Proteins**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate, and long positions can be established after stabilization. [12] - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be established at low prices. [12] - **Livestock**: The pig futures market is expected to find the bottom in a fluctuating manner, and it is recommended to wait and see; the egg futures market is expected to find the bottom in a fluctuating manner, and it is recommended to wait and see. [12] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, while for corn 5 - 9, it is recommended to short at high prices, and for pig 5 - 7, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions. [13][14] - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For most inter - variety spreads, it is recommended to wait and see, while for the 05 bean oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to take a bullish approach. [14] 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures operations. [15] 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, which can help analyze the cost of imported oils and oilseeds. [17][18] - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, reflecting the supply and demand situation of the oils and oilseeds market. [19][20] 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and different months, which is helpful for analyzing the cost of imported feed. [20] - **Weekly Data**: It includes the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch, which can reflect the supply and demand situation of the feed market. [21] 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of pig and egg prices, as well as the key data of the pig and egg markets, such as production costs, profits, and slaughter data, which can help analyze the supply and demand and price trends of the livestock market. [21][22][23] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, eggs, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens, which can help analyze the price trends of the livestock market. [25][27][28] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and price data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, which can help analyze the supply and demand and price trends of the oils and oilseeds market. [35][42][47] - **Feed End**: It includes the price, basis, inventory, and consumption data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal, which can help analyze the supply and demand and price trends of the feed market. [51][59][67] 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides the historical volatility data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio data of corn options, which can help analyze the market sentiment and risk of options. [95][96] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, which can help analyze the supply and demand situation of the physical market. [100][101]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 18, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. It shows the basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these varieties over the past few trading days. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The daily data of power coal basis, 5 - month minus 1 - month spread, 9 - month minus 1 - month spread, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spread from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented. The basis values are - 67.4, - 72.4, - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4 respectively, while the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are provided, along with their price ratios on March 17 [8] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [10] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol spreads from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are given [11] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with the note that the rebar main contracts are in January, May, and October [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil spreads from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are given [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are provided [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [28] 3.4.2 London Market - On March 17, 2026, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [39] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch spreads from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are given [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [50] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but includes individual commodity trend strengths, such as strong (2), moderately strong (1), neutral (0), moderately weak (-1), and weak (-2) [72][75][85] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors significantly influence commodity prices [72][104][137] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02%, and London gold spot rose 0.63%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78%, and London silver spot rose 1.86%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Platinum**: Continuously monitor the support at the current level. The price of platinum futures 2606 rose 3.73%. The trend strength is 0 [25] - **Palladium**: There was a significant outflow from ETF holdings. The price of palladium futures 2606 rose 2.31%. The trend strength is 0 [25] Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fell 0.30%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 1.07%. The trend strength is 0 [2][10] - **Zinc**: Facing headwinds in the real - world situation. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract fell 0.86%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk fell 0.44%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][13] - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose 1.75%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.16%. The trend strength is 0 [2][16] - **Tin**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.63%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk fell 0.97%. The trend strength is 0 [2][20] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 180. The trend strength is 0 [23] - **Nickel**: The accumulation of smelting inventory and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the downside. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 460. The trend strength is 0 [30] - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamentals and macro - factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support. The price of the stainless - steel main contract fell 25. The trend strength is 0 [30] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have a significant impact on energy - related commodities [137] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coking coal 2605 contract fell 5. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Coke**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coke 2605 contract fell 14. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Steam Coal**: Prices in the producing areas are rising, and the decline at ports is slowing. The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 coal remained unchanged at 585. The trend strength is - 1 [62] - **Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range adjustment, with prices remaining high in the short term. The price of the fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.67%. The trend strength is 0 [129] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rose at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded. The price of the low - sulfur fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.26%. The trend strength is 1 [129] Agricultural Products - **Grains**: - **Corn**: Trading in a range. The price of the corn 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [161] - **Soybeans**: - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is recovering, and Dalian soybean meal may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [157] - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing areas is stable, and the futures price may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean 2605 contract rose 0.02%. The trend strength is 0 [158] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: There are frequent speculative themes, and it remains strong in the short term. The price of the palm oil main contract fell 0.56%. The trend strength is 1 [151] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from the soybean complex is limited. Attention should be paid to the China - US consultation process. The price of the soybean oil main contract fell 0.83%. The trend strength is 0 [151] - **Others**: - **Eggs**: Trading in a range. The price of the egg 2604 contract fell 0.46%. The trend strength is 0 [176] - **Hogs**: De - stocking and weight - reduction will start, and the duration may exceed expectations. The price of the hog 2605 contract fell 115. The trend strength is - 2 [179] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The price of the peanut 604 contract rose 0.15%. The trend strength is 0 [184] Chemical Products - **Aromatics and Derivatives**: - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PX main contract fell 1.59%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **PTA**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PTA main contract fell 0.92%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **MEG**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the MEG main contract fell 1.45%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **Styrene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the styrene 2605 contract rose 101. The trend strength is 1 [109] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the pure benzene 2605 contract fell 10. The trend strength is 1 [148] - **Polyolefins**: - **LLDPE**: Cracking supply is contracting, and downstream resistance to high prices is emerging. The price of the LLDPE 2605 contract fell 2.09%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **PP**: The supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and exports continue to be favorable. The price of the PP 2605 contract fell 2.10%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **Others**: - **Caustic Soda**: The futures premium is relatively large, and the market is oscillating widely. The price of the caustic soda 05 contract is 2523. The trend strength is 0 [87] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating weakly. The price of the paper pulp main contract fell 144. The trend strength is - 1 [91] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of the glass 605 contract fell 1.97%. The trend strength is 0 [97] - **Methanol**: Running strongly. The price of the methanol main contract rose 10. The trend strength is 1 [100] - **Urea**: Oscillating widely, with fundamentals supporting prices. The price of the urea 05 contract fell 22. The trend strength is 0 [106] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the soda ash 2605 contract fell 1.43%. The trend strength is 1 [112] - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end may lead to a supply reduction. The price of the propylene 2604 contract fell 2.14%. The trend strength is 1 [117] - **PVC**: Adjusting in the short term. The price of the PVC 05 contract is 5901. The trend strength is 0 [125] Others - **Logs**: The cost is rising, and prices are increasing. The price of the log 2605 contract rose 0.4%. The trend strength is 0 [64] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The price of the EC2604 contract fell 0.04%. The trend strength is 1 [131] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: High - level fluctuations, with strong cost - driven factors. The price of the short - fiber 2604 contract fell 20, and the price of the bottle - chip 2604 contract fell 348. The trend strength is 1 [141] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The price of the 70g Tianyang paper in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 4500. The trend strength is 0 [144] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is strengthening, and it is oscillating strongly. The price of the sugar futures main contract fell 66. The trend strength is 1 [165] - **Cotton**: Temporarily showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The price of the CF2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 1 [169]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 03 月 18 日星期三 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2605合约涨幅0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: International oil price surges due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, which boosts international corn prices and benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, the supply of corn from Northeast China has improved, but the remaining grain is decreasing, and the selling pressure risk is reduced. After active replenishment, processing enterprises' inventories have returned to a safe level. With weak downstream demand and profit losses, enterprises mainly maintain rolling replenishment, and prices have loosened. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened, and some feed enterprises have started to purchase wheat. The adjustment of the lowest - price wheat auction policy may increase the demand for wheat as a feed substitute and weaken the later - stage demand for corn. Corn futures prices are oscillating at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Corn Starch**: As corn starch enterprises gradually resume production, the industry's operating rate has increased, and the supply - side pressure has increased. However, the increase in the operating rate is slow, downstream demand has improved, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased. The starch market has been oscillating strongly recently, supported by the strong performance of corn [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2386 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 19 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread is - 13 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 238809 hands, with a decrease of 3500 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 78333 hands, with a decrease of 130 hands [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2730 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 7 month spread is - 1, with a decrease of 1; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is 242866 hands, with a decrease of 546 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 6255 hands, with a decrease of 305 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn futures is 454.75 cents/bushel, with a decrease of 12.25 cents/bushel; the total position is 1723308 contracts, with an increase of 105847 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 167722 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price of corn is 2452.35 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.72 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2410 yuan/ton, with no change; the CIF price of imported corn is 2085.07 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5.26 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is - 3.28 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2830 yuan/ton, 3040 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 100 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the price difference between Shandong starch and corn is 540 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Substitute Products**: The average spot price of wheat is 2596.94 yuan/ton, with an increase of 14.33 yuan/ton; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 737 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 34 yuan/ton, with an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - **Sowing Area and Yield Forecast**: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 432.34 million hectares, with an increase of 0.49 million hectares; the predicted yield is 36.93 million tons. In Brazil, the sowing area is 131 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 22.6 million tons. In Argentina, the sowing area is 53 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 7.5 million tons. In China, the sowing area is 301.24 million hectares, with an increase of 0.66 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 44.96 million tons. In Ukraine, the predicted yield is 29 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of corn in southern ports is 69.6 tons, with a decrease of 19.6 tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 337.7 tons, with a decrease of 6 tons; the inventory of corn in northern ports is 219 tons, with an increase of 19 tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 120.9 tons, with a decrease of 1.00 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.82%, a monthly increase of 0.92%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.17% [3]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, with an increase of 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, with a decrease of 0.2 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 tons, with an increase of 30.7 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory days of sample feed corn are 30.06 days, with a decrease of 0.19 days; the deep - processed corn consumption is 126.86 tons, with an increase of 4.91 tons [2]. - **Profit**: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 13 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it is 120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 24 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it is - 16 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 55.61%, with an increase of 1.53%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.73%, with an increase of 1.21% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.82%, with an increase of 0.23%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.26%, with an increase of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 15.63%, with a decrease of 0.04% [2]. Industry News - As of March 12, the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 50%, higher than 42% of the previous week but lower than 72% of the same period last year. The planting progress of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 91%, higher than 82% of a week ago but lower than 97% of the same period last year [2]. - The intensification of the US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which has pushed up freight rates and boosted international corn market prices [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing tension in the Middle East has led to a strong upward trend in international crude oil prices, which in turn has driven up the prices of various agricultural products, especially edible oils. The cost of soybean imports in China is expected to rise, and the production forecast for biodiesel from international edible oils is positive, which is beneficial for domestic soybean oil. For different agricultural products, specific market conditions and trading strategies are provided [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: The price of soybean No. 1 is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to wait and see. Soybean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization. The price of soybean oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Oils**: The price of palm oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to hold long positions after reducing the position. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: The price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the upward trend, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: The price of corn is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. The price of corn starch is expected to follow the cost of corn and fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Livestock**: The price of live pigs is expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of eggs is expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to go short at high prices, and for the 5 - 7 spread of live pigs, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions [13][14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures prices, CNF arrival prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil [19][20]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [20]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn by deep - processing enterprises [21]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key market data such as breeding costs, profits, and slaughter data [21][23][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a series of charts related to the livestock end (live pigs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal), which visually show the price trends, inventory changes, and other information of these products [26][35][51]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts of historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [93][95][96]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts showing the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [97][98][100].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 03 月 17 日星期二 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | | 短期来看，3月供强需弱格局持续，体重压力不减，猪价或维持低位运行，关注二育 | | --- | --- | | | 及冻品入库情绪。中期来看，2025年四季度新生仔猪连续3个月环比下降，对应今年 | | | 4-6月起供给压力有所缓解，重点关注疫病影响。长期来看，母猪存栏对应今年8月 | | | 前供给压力仍存；然而2025年年末能繁母猪存栏降幅不及预期，远月合约高点预期 | | | 下移。 | | | 【交易策略】 | | | 维持底部区间交易思路。2605合约如期跌破11000，支撑下移至10500，压力关注11 | | | 000-11200；2607合约支撑关注12000，压力关注12300-12400；2609合约支撑关注1 | | | 3000，压力关注13300。 | | | 【行情复盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 17, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][6][21][27][38][49] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from March 10 to March 16, 2026. The basis values are - 64.4, - 67.4, - 72.4, - 72.4, - 78.4 respectively, and the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented, along with the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [8] Chemical Commodities - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are provided [10] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [11] - Inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented [11] 3. Black Metals - The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are shown [21] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, with a note that the rebar main contracts are in January, May, and October [20] - Inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented [20] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are provided [30] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 16, 2026 are presented [33] 5. Agricultural Products - The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are shown [39] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided [39] - Inter - variety spreads (soybeans/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc.) from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented [39] 6. Stock Index Futures - The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are provided [50] - Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [50]