Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [1][40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will announce their latest interest rate decisions. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are likely to maintain their current interest rates, while the decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are uncertain [1][40]. - The China-US trade issue remains a key focus. Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [1][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. One - Week Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of October 24th, 16:30, the US dollar index appreciated compared to the previous Friday. The offshore yuan, the Japanese yen, the euro, and the British pound depreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore yuan appreciated slightly against the US dollar [3]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and the policy showed characteristics of inheritance and innovation [3]. - The achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" laid a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][13]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is highly consistent with the "14th Five - Year Plan" in core goals and adds three innovative directions in implementation paths [8][14]. - The four core views of the "15th Five - Year Plan" are stable growth, enhanced security, innovation promotion, and domestic demand expansion [9][15]. - In general, the "15th Five - Year Plan" pays more attention to systematicness, integrity, and synergy, with a policy logic shift from "development priority" to "balanced development and security," from "factor - driven" to "innovation - driven," and from "external demand - driven" to "domestic demand - driven" [10][16]. - Key word analysis shows that in the "15th Five - Year Plan," "high - quality development" is deepened from concept to practice, "scientific and technological self - reliance" is elevated in strategic status, "security" is emphasized as a "security barrier," "consumption" and "investment" strengthen the domestic demand - driven strategy, and "finance" shifts from system construction to embedded support [17][21][22][23][24]. 1.2 Weekly Review of the US Dollar Against the Chinese Yuan Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan remained stable, with a fluctuation range of 7.115 - 7.129. The appreciation - oriented central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and stable domestic macro - economic data jointly promoted the stable operation of the exchange rate [36]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was mostly in sync with the US dollar index. The US dollar index rebounded in the first half of last week due to the US government shutdown and the expected fiscal expansion policy in Japan [36][37]. 1.3 Market Outlook - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts are uncertain [40]. - Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [40]. 2. Observation of the Chinese Yuan Market 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.0928, depreciating 21 basis points from the previous Friday. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of yuan depreciation expectation) [42]. 2.2 Investor Expectation and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectation**: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with cross - border capital flows active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand relatively balanced. Although there was a small net outflow of cross - border funds in September, it turned into an inflow in October [49]. - **Overseas Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the spread between the offshore and on - shore yuan showed that overseas investors' sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation had declined [53]. - **Professional Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the closing price of the 1 - year NDF of the US dollar against the offshore yuan declined slightly. The short - term market sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the medium - term appreciation sentiment increased [55]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided [60][61]. - **Singapore Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided, as well as a comparison of the basis with the Hong Kong Exchange [63][64][66]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Various economic data such as GDP, industrial added value, and consumer price index were released. The "15th Five - Year Plan" goals were put forward, and policies in multiple fields such as agriculture, foreign exchange, and real estate were announced [69][70]. - **US**: Economic data such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index were released. There were also events such as the termination of trade negotiations with Canada and the impact of the government shutdown on inflation data [71][72]. - **UK**: The Bank of England started stress - testing the private credit market, and inflation data was released, leading traders to increase bets on interest rate cuts [73]. - **Eurozone**: Data showed that the net financial situation of EU member states deteriorated, and the PMI data of the eurozone improved [74]. - **Japan**: A new prime minister was elected, and economic measures and inflation data were announced [75]. - **Others**: South Korea issued foreign exchange stabilization bonds, and the global payment share of the yuan increased [76]. 3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Speeches Summary - Speeches from central banks in China, the United States, Japan, etc., were involved, including topics such as APEC meetings, interest rate policies, and exchange rate expectations [77][78][79]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A list of important data and events to be announced this week in different regions, including China, the United States, Canada, Japan, etc., is provided, along with their importance, previous values, and expected values [81]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Graphs showing the trends of exchange rates of major countries such as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Korean won, etc., are presented [83][85][86]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Graphs showing the trends of major asset classes such as London gold, VIX, Brent crude oil, etc., are presented [104][105][106]. 4.3 Funding Situation - Graphs showing central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are presented [114][116]. 4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Graphs showing the trends of the China - US interest rate spread, 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield are presented [118][119]. 4.5 Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Index - A graph showing the trends of three major Chinese yuan exchange rate indexes is presented [122]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Graphs showing the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures are presented [124][126].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Green Sustainable Development Expo showcased the integration of sustainability into daily life, emphasizing that green practices are not limited to specific industries but are part of broader societal actions [1][8] Group 1: Energy and Manufacturing - Sheneng Group presented a range of green innovations including green fuels and cables, highlighting the importance of sustainable energy production [2] - Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing demonstrated the power of smart manufacturing through automation and digitalization, showcasing the synergy between energy production and intelligent manufacturing [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange emphasized their roles in supporting renewable energy infrastructure through futures contracts for essential materials like polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2] Group 2: Financial Support for Sustainability - Pacific Insurance highlighted its commitment to green finance, insuring over 4.6 million new energy vehicles and investing over 260 billion in green projects [3] - The China Financial Futures Exchange and other commodity exchanges are developing futures products that support green initiatives, such as electricity and carbon emission futures [3] Group 3: International Cooperation - The UNHCR showcased its "green aid" initiatives, promoting renewable energy in refugee camps and sustainable materials for living facilities [4] - The Barbados Embassy highlighted the impact of climate change on small island nations, emphasizing the need for global cooperation in environmental protection [4] - E Fund displayed its achievements in ESG investment, supporting companies in renewable energy and carbon neutrality [4] Group 4: Sustainable Practices in Daily Life - Sony introduced "Synecoculture," an ecological farming method that promotes biodiversity and reduces reliance on chemical fertilizers [5] - Alibaba reported a significant reduction in packaging materials, achieving a decrease of 169,000 tons through sustainable practices [5] - Bosideng is transitioning to sustainable fashion by using eco-friendly materials and establishing an ESG governance framework [6] Group 5: Urban Sustainability Initiatives - Huangpu District is implementing sustainable urban development through green buildings and renewable energy projects, engaging the community in carbon reduction efforts [7] - NIO showcased its electric vehicle network and battery recycling initiatives, contributing to China's carbon neutrality goals [7] Group 6: Health and Biotechnology - Huaxi Biological emphasized its commitment to green manufacturing in the biotechnology sector, utilizing clean energy and water recycling in its production processes [8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong market's market capitalization increased to HKD 42.7 trillion in the first half of 2025, representing a 33% growth compared to the previous year [1] Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 240.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 118% [1] - The average daily trading volume of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) rose to HKD 33.8 billion, marking a 184% increase year-on-year [1] - The derivatives market saw an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.7 million contracts, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect program exceeded HKD 110 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase of 195% [1] - Daily trading volume of RMB futures surpassed 115,000 contracts, showing a 43% year-on-year growth [1] Market Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange views the first half of 2025 as a breakthrough period for the capital market, characterized by strong trading volumes and a growing derivatives market [1] - The resilience and innovative momentum of Hong Kong's secondary market are highlighted, indicating its ability to continuously attract international capital and provide diverse investment tools for investors [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong market experienced significant growth in the first half of 2025, with record highs in trading volumes and market capitalization [1][11] Trading Volume Highlights - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached 240.2 billion HKD, a 118% increase from 110.4 billion HKD in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading volume for ETFs surged to 33.8 billion HKD, up 184% from 11.9 billion HKD year-on-year, driven by the expansion of the ETF Connect program and the continuous launch of new ETF products [4] - Leveraged and inverse products saw an average daily trading volume of 4.2 billion HKD, a 75% increase from 2.4 billion HKD compared to the previous year [5] - Daily trading volume for callable bull/bear contracts reached 9.6 billion HKD, reflecting a 78% increase from 5.4 billion HKD year-on-year [6] - The average daily trading volume of derivatives reached 1,700,322 contracts, an 11% increase from 1,532,608 contracts in the same period last year [7] - The average daily trading volume for Hong Kong Stock Connect exceeded 110.9 billion HKD, marking a 195% increase from the previous year [9] - The daily trading volume of RMB currency futures rose to 115,150 contracts, a 43% increase year-on-year, indicating the growing role of RMB-denominated instruments [10] Market Capitalization - As of June 30, 2025, the market capitalization of Hong Kong reached 42.7 trillion HKD, a 33% increase from 32.1 trillion HKD in the same period last year, highlighting the resilience and innovative momentum of the secondary market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of the current international monetary system, particularly focusing on the role of the US dollar and the potential for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan as a response to the declining dominance of the dollar [2][6][10]. Group 1: US Dollar and International Monetary System - The US, as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, maintains economic prosperity by borrowing from other countries, leading to a significant accumulation of debt [3][6]. - Recent data indicates that the US GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased imports driven by tariff policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US economy [3][4]. - The dollar index has seen a significant decline, dropping 10.79% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [4][10]. Group 2: Challenges of Dollar Dominance - The "Triffin Dilemma" persists, highlighting the conflict between the need for the US to run trade deficits to provide global liquidity and the resulting pressure on the dollar's value [6][8]. - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% in 1999 to 57.4% in Q1 2024, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization [9][10]. Group 3: Internationalization of the Chinese Yuan - The article emphasizes the strategic opportunity for the yuan's internationalization amid the multi-polarization of the international monetary system [15]. - Key measures proposed for enhancing yuan internationalization include improving the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), expanding currency swap agreements, and exploring more offshore yuan usage scenarios [15][16][17]. - The issuance of offshore yuan stablecoins is suggested as a new approach to promote yuan internationalization, particularly in the context of digital finance [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The power of bullish sentiment on the RMB exchange rate remains strong. The RMB deposit in the Hong Kong offshore market has returned to the trillion - yuan scale, and the RMB remittance related to cross - border trade settlement has increased significantly month - on - month. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the RMB bond's allocation and trading attractiveness are expected to continue to increase [2]. Summary by Directory 1. April: Hong Kong Offshore RMB Deposit and Remittance - As of the end of April 2025, the Hong Kong RMB deposit scale was 1030.895 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. The total RMB remittance related to cross - border trade settlement was 1362.144 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The RMB RTGS clearing amount dropped to 58.5 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [5]. 2. May: USD Index and RMB Exchange Rate - The USD index first rose and then fell in May. The monthly average value decreased by 0.56% compared with April, and the decline was narrower than that in April. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated upwards, and the monthly average value of the on - offshore exchange rate turned positive. In April, the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus expanded. High - frequency data showed that the average daily trading volume of the USD/CNY spot inquiry in May increased by 13.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2][7][11]. 3. May: Interest Rates - In May, there was no issuance of offshore RMB treasury bonds or central bank bills. The offshore RMB liquidity was abundant, and the CNH HIBOR fluctuated slightly downward. The HKD HIBOR declined significantly, and the average value of the offshore RMB - HKD interest rate spread widened. The on - shore SHIBOR continued to decline, and the average value of the on - offshore RMB interest rate spread narrowed. In the future, the SHIBOR volatility may increase stage by stage near the end of the quarter, the CNH HIBOR is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the HKD HIBOR may rise from a low level, but the probability of a significant upward trend is small [3][4]. 4. May: Swap Points and Derivatives - In May, the average values of on - and offshore RMB swap points showed different trends, and the inversion range of the on - offshore swap point spread continued to narrow. The trading volume of RMB futures on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange decreased, the open interest increased, and the settlement price strengthened. The option market continued to be bullish on the RMB exchange rate, indicating that the power of bullish sentiment on the RMB exchange rate remains strong [19][22]. 5. May - June: Offshore RMB Bonds - In May, the financing amount of offshore RMB bonds continued to decline. In April, the custody scale of overseas institutions in the inter - bank bond market rose to the highest level in nearly 7 months. Looking forward, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to strengthen, the probability of intensive issuance of offshore RMB treasury bonds in the short term is low, but the allocation and trading attractiveness of RMB bonds are expected to continue to increase [25][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange reform has gradually established a dynamic equilibrium exchange rate system that emphasizes both market - led pricing and macro - prudential management through a series of reforms from 2015 to 2022 [14] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by international payments, interest rate parity, and relative economic strength. When these three factors are in the same direction, it is more likely to form a trend of appreciation [194] - The offshore RMB market's liquidity is supported by cross - border trade settlement for long - term growth and central bank support and market financing for short - term stability [87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Reform - China's foreign exchange reform includes the improvement of the mid - price mechanism in 2015, the introduction of the counter - cyclical factor in 2017, the dynamic adjustment of cross - border financing macro - prudential parameters in 2019, and the strengthening of the foreign exchange risk reserve system in 2022 [14] - The mid - price mechanism combines the previous day's closing price and the change of a basket of currencies, which makes the mid - price close to the market and takes into account external stability [21] - The counter - cyclical factor guides market rational expectations, weakens the self - reinforcement mechanism of pro - cyclical behavior, and enhances the resilience and stability of the exchange rate mechanism [24] - Since the launch of the LPR reform in August 2019, the loan quotation mechanism has become more market - oriented, breaking the "implicit lower limit" of loan interest rates [27] - The adjustment of cross - border financing macro - prudential parameters aims to increase cross - border financing quotas, relieve RMB depreciation pressure, and optimize the asset - liability structure of domestic entities [32] 3.2 Domestic RMB Foreign Exchange Market - The RMB foreign exchange market is divided into the bank - to - customer market and the inter - bank market. The inter - bank market has high liquidity and large trading volume [41] - The inter - bank foreign exchange derivatives market has developed since 2005, with swap transactions being the most important trading method [62] - In the spot market, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has weakened, and the demand for purchasing foreign exchange has increased. In the forward market, enterprises tend to lock in the cost of purchasing foreign exchange in advance [66] - Short - term foreign exchange derivatives dominate the market, mainly meeting the short - term foreign exchange capital allocation and risk management needs of banks and enterprises [81] 3.3 Offshore RMB Market - The long - term liquidity of the offshore RMB market is mainly supplied by cross - border trade settlement, and the short - term liquidity is obtained through market financing and official support [87] - The offshore RMB market has various products, including CNH spot, RMB offshore non - deliverable forward, RMB offshore deliverable forward, RMB futures, and RMB futures options [94] - The participants in the offshore RMB market are diversified, and the proportion of non - financial institutional investors has increased, narrowing the gap between the offshore and onshore exchange rates [101] 3.4 QFII, RQFII, and QDII - QFII and RQFII systems have been gradually liberalized, allowing foreign institutional investors to invest in the Chinese domestic capital market. The two systems have been unified [106] - The QDII system allows domestic institutional investors to invest overseas, and its investment scope and scale have been gradually expanded [108] 3.5 RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization has gone through three stages: using trade settlement as a breakthrough, accelerating investment and financial opening, and enhancing global influence [112] - To promote RMB internationalization, China has promoted RMB pricing in commodities, expanded the opening of the domestic financial market, and strengthened RMB settlement in neighboring and "Belt and Road" countries [122] 3.6 SWIFT and CIPS - SWIFT is the most important cross - border payment system globally, but the increasing use of financial sanctions by the US has made the international community aware of the risks of the US - dollar - dominated system. CIPS is playing an increasingly important role in RMB cross - border settlement [127] - In 2024, CIPS handled a large number of RMB cross - border payment transactions, and the RMB's share in global payments has increased, ranking fourth [132] 3.7 RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - Short - term RMB exchange rate trends are determined by capital supply and demand, market expectations, and policy and external environments [140] - The issuance of offshore central bank bills affects the supply and demand of offshore RMB, and the swap point reflects market expectations for the RMB [169] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by international payments, interest rate parity, and relative economic strength. When these factors are in the same direction, it is beneficial for the RMB exchange rate [194] - The international balance of payments affects the RMB exchange rate. Trade surpluses lead to RMB appreciation, and capital outflows lead to RMB depreciation [195] - Interest rate parity affects capital flow. When the RMB interest rate is higher than the US dollar interest rate, it supports the RMB; otherwise, the RMB is under pressure [195] - Relative economic strength affects market expectations. When China's economic prospects are better than the US, the RMB has the potential to appreciate [197]