2025年(截止12月10日)全年申万机械设备指数上涨36.11%，相较于其他行业涨幅排名靠前，跑赢上证指 数19.74个百分点，跑赢深证成指8.78个百分点。2025年前三季度机械板块营收和归母净利润增速提升。 从收入端来看，2025年前三季度机械行业营业收入15135.34亿元，同比增长7.35%，同比增速相较于 2024年前三季度有所提升。从利润端来看，归母净利润1080.76亿元，同比增长16.80%，同比增速相较 于2024年前三季度明显提升。 东兴证券发布研报称，2025年机械板块涨幅居前，从利润端来看同比增速相较于2024年前三季度明显提 升。工程机械及摩托车作为我国制造业出海竞争力较强的板块，未来有望持续强化品牌效应，打造"制 造出海"向"品牌出海"升级的典范。另建议关注人形机器人、智能物流、非动力核技术应用、低空经 济、深海科技、冰雪经济和高端计量检测细分机会。锂电、光伏、半导体设备行业有望从粗放式增长转 向高质量发展。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 2025年机械板块涨幅居前，营收利润同比增速提升 反内卷推动光伏、锂电、半导体设备进入高质量发展新周期 2025年中央财经委会议明确将"反内卷"作为 ...

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved high-quality completion of most policy goals, including economic growth, labor productivity, and R&D investment, with significant progress in urbanization and life expectancy indicators [9][10][11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving Chinese-style modernization, focusing on solidifying the foundation for modernization and comprehensive development [7][8] Group 2 - Four industrial clues are identified for the "15th Five-Year Plan": fostering new productive forces, expanding domestic demand, advancing the construction of a unified national market, and enhancing resource utilization and protection [4][12][16] - The macroeconomic environment shows new momentum in domestic growth, with a need to address insufficient effective demand, emphasizing the importance of technology innovation and expanding domestic consumption [13][14] Group 3 - The focus on new productive forces includes the development of emerging industries, traditional industry upgrades, and the stimulation of digital economy innovation [4][12][18] - Expanding domestic demand involves promoting consumption through initiatives like "old-for-new" exchanges and investing in human capital, alongside infrastructure investment to support urban renewal [4][12][16] Group 4 - The construction of a unified national market aims to reduce internal competition and enhance efficiency in sectors like new energy, traditional cycles, and consumer goods [4][12][16] - Resource utilization and protection strategies emphasize the development of the marine economy and the safeguarding of strategic mineral resources [4][12][16] Group 5 - The market outlook suggests that technology innovation sectors such as TMT, new energy, and biomedicine will continue to be key investment themes, supported by policy and industry growth [4][12][16] - Historical analysis indicates that A-share market trends around the announcements of previous five-year plans show a pattern of initial growth followed by sector rotation and differentiation [4][12][16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies issued by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments aim to expand service consumption as a crucial support for improving people's livelihoods and a key direction for consumption transformation and upgrading [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Highlights - The policy measures are characterized by "three persistences": combining benefits for people's livelihoods with promoting consumption, optimizing supply while stimulating demand, and balancing openness to foreign markets with domestic liberalization [2]. - Specific measures include accelerating the establishment of long-term care insurance, increasing the supply of quality resources in cultural tourism and sports, and expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education [2][3]. Group 2: Actions to Promote Service Consumption - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, increase the supply of high-skilled service talents, and eliminate market access barriers to enrich high-quality service offerings [3]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism plans to organize multiple exhibitions, implement actions to revitalize tourism attractions, and promote the development of emerging economies such as the first-release economy, ice and snow economy, and fashion economy [3]. - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program to guide financial institutions in increasing credit investment in key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption remains a significant source of trade deficit in services, necessitating the optimization of visa exemption policies and support for enhancing the convenience of inbound tourism, medical care, and study [4]. - As the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will launch quality products, special activities, and promotional measures, including a nationwide cultural tourism consumption month with over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council of China has issued an opinion aimed at unleashing the potential of sports consumption and promoting high-quality development of the sports industry, targeting a total scale exceeding 70 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] Group 1: Key Measures - Six categories of 20 key measures have been proposed to enhance the sports industry, including expanding the supply of sports products, enriching sports events, and optimizing event management [1] - The opinion emphasizes stimulating sports consumption demand by broadening consumption scenarios and implementing consumer-friendly initiatives [1] - It aims to strengthen sports enterprises and build quality platforms for industry collaboration [1] Group 2: Industry Development Goals - The goal is to cultivate a number of world-influential sports enterprises and events by 2030, significantly elevating the development level of the sports industry [1] - The opinion highlights the importance of integrating industry growth points, promoting regional coordination, and advancing digital transformation in sports [1] - It also focuses on enhancing the support for industry elements, including talent development and financial backing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the State Council's opinion on enhancing sports consumption potential and promoting high-quality development in the sports industry, aiming for a total scale exceeding 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [1]. Group 1: Sports Consumption Potential - The article highlights the booming sports economy, including ice and snow sports and new sports markets, indicating significant potential for sports consumption [2]. - It emphasizes the need to enrich sports events, develop outdoor sports industries, and enhance sports facility supply, supported by financial policies like loan interest subsidies and sports consumption vouchers [2]. Group 2: Sports Events and Economic Impact - The opinion calls for the optimization of sports event management and the introduction of policies to boost event-driven economic growth, with examples showing a 40% increase in consumption during major events like the Hangzhou Asian Games [6][7]. - The sports service industry, particularly competition and leisure sectors, accounted for 72.7% of the sports industry's added value, which reached 3.67 trillion yuan in 2023, growing at an annual rate of 10.3% [6]. Group 3: Outdoor Sports and Ice-Snow Economy - The article outlines plans for developing outdoor sports based on regional resources, with projected online consumption in outdoor sports reaching 300 billion yuan by 2024 and ice-snow industry growth from 381.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 970 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 26.3% annual growth rate [8]. - Water sports participation is expected to exceed 120 million people by 2024, with an industry scale of 438.6 billion yuan, growing by 18.7% [8]. Group 4: Strengthening Sports Enterprises - The opinion emphasizes the need to strengthen sports enterprises by supporting private investment, enhancing the quality of sports enterprises, and promoting the market-oriented operation of public sports venues [11]. - Financial policies include interest subsidies for eligible sports service providers and incentives for local governments to issue sports consumption vouchers [11].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued an opinion aimed at unleashing the potential of sports consumption and promoting high-quality development of the sports industry, targeting a total scale exceeding 70 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] Group 1: Key Measures - Six categories of 20 key measures have been proposed to enhance the sports industry, including expanding sports product supply, enriching sports events, and optimizing event management [1] - The opinion emphasizes stimulating sports consumption demand by broadening consumption scenarios and implementing consumer-friendly initiatives [1] - It aims to strengthen sports enterprises and build quality platforms for industry collaboration [1] Group 2: Industry Development Goals - The document outlines the goal of cultivating a number of world-influential sports enterprises and events by 2030, significantly elevating the development level of the sports industry [1] - It highlights the importance of integrating industry growth points, promoting regional coordination, and advancing digital transformation within the sports sector [1] - The opinion also stresses the need for enhanced support in terms of talent development, financial backing, and the provision of sports facilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sports industry has emerged as a new highlight in economic development, driven by policies promoting ice and snow economy and outdoor sports, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 10% over the past five years [1] Industry Development - The total scale of the sports industry has shown significant growth, with initiatives like "events entering scenic spots, streets, and business districts" and "traveling with events" gaining popularity [1] - The development of outdoor sports reflects the concept that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets," contributing to the overall economic transformation [1] Economic Impact - The high-quality development of ice and snow sports has invigorated the ice and snow economy, adding new momentum to national economic growth and local economic transformation [1]