[Table_Message]2025-12-07 金融工程周报 大类资产与基金周报（20251201-20251205）—— 贵金属上涨，商品基金涨幅录得 1.03% [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 . 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 3902.81，涨跌幅 0.37%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅分别为 1.26%、0.76%、1.86%、1.09%、1.28%、0.94% ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the labor market remains structurally unbalanced, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [1] - The release of November non-farm payroll data has been postponed from December 5 to December 16, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a current probability of approximately 69% for a cut in December [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, the growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in China fell to -19.1% from 2.3% in September, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year [1] - The growth rate of general public budget expenditure decreased to -9.3% from 3.1% in September, while government fund expenditure dropped to -32.8% from 0.4% in September [1] - Tax revenue showed slight recovery, but non-tax revenue continued to weaken [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remains tight due to tax period disturbances, with the stock market adjusting but limited reaction in the bond market, which continues to experience narrow fluctuations [1] - The central bank governor indicated that the yield on 10-year government bonds remains around 1.75%-1.85%, with cautious sentiment in the bond market near key levels [1] - The expectation of a U.S. rate cut and skepticism regarding AI narratives have not triggered a significant decline in the bond market, indicating that a trend in interest rates may require substantial central bank bond purchases or a slowdown in the economy to prompt monetary policy easing [1] Group 4: A-share Market Outlook - Following a significant adjustment in the A-share market, current indicators suggest that market sentiment is at a low level, indicating limited downward space [2] - Uncertainties regarding overseas liquidity, rate cut expectations, and important internal meetings in December may prevent an immediate recovery in market risk appetite [2] - Structural pressures between market styles have eased, suggesting a gradual entry into a mid-term layout phase [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is currently influenced by U.S. rate cut expectations, with a mid-term perspective indicating potential benefits from improved financial conditions and risk appetite [2] Group 6: Commodity Outlook - In the global economic context, initial rate cuts may not significantly boost oil demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [2] - Gold prices have stabilized recently amid increased volatility in U.S. stocks driven by AI prospects, with a positive outlook for the medium to long term [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The main asset performance ranking for the week (October 27-31, 2025) is US stocks > A-shares > Chinese bonds > Hong Kong stocks > crude oil > gold > commodities, with A-shares and US stocks rising while Hong Kong stocks fell [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.50% [5][6] - The total number of newly established funds this week is 53, with 23 equity funds, 15 mixed funds, 9 bond funds, 5 FOF funds, and 1 QDII fund, totaling 45.52 billion units issued [2][14] Group 2: Fund Performance - Bond funds had the best performance this week, with an increase of 0.26%, followed by equity funds at 0.24%, and mixed funds at 0.1%. Commodity funds performed the worst, declining by 1.22% [10][11] - In the equity fund category, passive index funds had the highest increase of 0.24%, while the best-performing sector theme fund was the pharmaceutical fund, which rose by 1.92% [3][10] - The top 10% of equity funds saw a net value increase of 4.93%, while the bottom 10% experienced a decline of 2.96% [18][19] Group 3: Bond Fund Insights - Bond funds showed significant performance variation, with the top 10% of funds seeing an average net value increase of 0.72%, while the bottom 10% saw a slight decline of 0.01% [36][38] - The overall bond market sentiment improved due to factors such as the central bank resuming government bond trading and easing US-China trade relations, leading to a favorable liquidity environment [34][41] Group 4: Sector and Theme Fund Performance - The pharmaceutical theme fund performed the best among thematic funds, with an average increase of 1.92%, while the TMT fund experienced a decline of 0.55% [22][24] - Among various styles, growth funds performed relatively well, while value funds lagged behind, with mid-cap value style showing the highest increase of 1.15% [18][20]

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China experienced significant growth in the third quarter of 2025, particularly in equity funds, driven by a strong performance in the A-share market [2][4][24] - The total management scale of public funds reached 36.45 trillion yuan, marking a 7.07% increase from the previous quarter [4][6] - Active equity funds and stock index funds saw substantial growth, with active equity funds increasing by nearly 700 billion yuan and stock index funds growing by 1.1 trillion yuan [5][6] Fund Performance - The stock fund category saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, a growth rate of 25.3%, with pure index stock funds leading the increase at 1.06 trillion yuan [4][6] - Mixed funds also performed well, with a growth of nearly 600 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.89% increase [5][6] - In contrast, bond funds experienced a decline, with a reduction of 142.8 billion yuan, the only category to shrink during this period [5][6] Company Rankings - E Fund and Huaxia Fund emerged as the top two companies in terms of non-monetary fund scale, with 1.81 trillion yuan and 1.52 trillion yuan respectively [9][10] - Five public fund companies reported non-monetary fund growth exceeding 100 billion yuan, with E Fund leading at an increase of 286.6 billion yuan [13][14] Active Equity Fund Growth - E Fund led the active equity fund category with a scale of 3.129 trillion yuan, followed by China Europe Fund and GF Fund, both exceeding 2 trillion yuan [24][25] - The growth in active equity funds was significant, with several companies reporting increases of over 500 billion yuan, indicating a strong market recovery [27][28] Index Fund Developments - The total scale of public index products approached 8 trillion yuan, with E Fund and Huaxia Fund both surpassing the 1 trillion yuan mark in index fund management [16][22] - The growth in index funds was supported by a favorable market environment and the performance of underlying assets [22][24] Market Trends - The third quarter saw a return of the "money-making effect" in the market, which positively impacted the growth of active equity funds [29] - The demand for long-term stable returns is driving interest in actively managed equity products, positioning them as a key focus for fund companies [29]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamentals of funds before investing, highlighting that many individuals jump into investments without proper knowledge, leading to potential losses [1][2] - It presents a metaphor comparing funds to a group dining experience where a professional chef (fund manager) prepares a meal (investment portfolio) using pooled resources from investors [3][4] - The core message is that investing in funds is about hiring a professional team to manage money rather than betting on individual stocks [5] Group 2 - The article categorizes funds into four main types based on risk and return: equity funds, mixed funds, bond funds, and money market funds, providing a clear framework for investors to identify suitable options [6][7] - Equity funds are described as high-risk, high-reward investments, suitable for those with a strong risk tolerance and a long investment horizon [8][10] - Mixed funds offer flexibility and balance, appealing to moderate risk-takers and those with limited investment experience [11][12] Group 3 - Bond funds are characterized as conservative investments, ideal for risk-averse individuals seeking stable cash flow [13][14] - Money market funds are presented as extremely low-risk options, suitable for all investors, especially beginners looking for a safe place to park their emergency funds [17][18] - The article also introduces specialized fund types like QDII funds for overseas investments and FOF funds that invest in a basket of other funds, catering to more advanced investors [19][21] Group 4 - The article concludes with three essential questions for investors to determine their investment strategy: investment goals, risk tolerance, and available funds, guiding them to make informed decisions [24][25][26] - It stresses that understanding fund categories and aligning them with personal financial situations can significantly enhance investment outcomes [27][29]

Core Insights - The total assets under management for open-end funds and ETFs reached a record high of 29.6 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with non-money market fund management size increasing from 11.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2022 to 15.3 trillion yuan, a growth of 35% [2][8]. Fund Flows and Performance - In the first half of 2025, public funds experienced a slowdown in capital inflow, with non-money market funds attracting a net inflow of approximately 315.6 billion yuan, only about a quarter of the 1.3 trillion yuan net inflow for the entire year of 2024 [11]. - Bond funds have consistently attracted the largest inflow since 2023, with a net inflow of 342.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while mixed funds continued to see outflows for the fourth consecutive year [11][12]. - Stock funds saw a significant decline in net inflows, with only 77.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking the first substantial drop since 2021 [12]. - Commodity funds experienced rapid growth, achieving a net inflow of 64.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, nearly double the inflow from 2024, driven by rising gold prices [12]. Passive vs Active Management - The past three years have seen a breakthrough in the inflow of passive funds, which have driven the overall net inflow in the non-money market fund sector since 2022. Active funds, on the other hand, only recorded a slight net inflow of 154.1 billion yuan in 2023, with outflows in other years [14]. - Passive products have gained significant traction, particularly in bond and commodity funds, while mixed and alternative funds have seen continuous outflows due to the absence of index-based passive products [14]. QDII Fund Trends - As of June 30, 2025, QDII funds experienced a net outflow of 11.75 billion yuan, primarily due to a slowdown in inflows across most categories, despite an overall growth in QDII fund size to approximately 570 billion yuan, an 11% increase from the end of 2024 [3][24]. ETF Market Dynamics - The domestic ETF market has entered a phase of rapid growth since 2022, with a record net inflow of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight slowdown in 2025, achieving approximately 400 million yuan in net inflow in the first half of 2025 [29]. - Bond ETFs saw a significant increase in both fund numbers and asset size, with a net inflow of over 200 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, surpassing stock ETFs for the first time [31]. - The market share of the top three ETF providers, including Huaxia Fund and E Fund, accounted for 46.4% of the total market as of June 30, 2025, indicating a strong concentration in the ETF market [34]. Competitive Landscape - As of June 30, 2025, the top 10 fund companies accounted for 44% of the total non-money market fund size, with the top 20 companies holding 66%, reflecting a strengthening headwind effect in the industry [4][38]. - The competition among fund companies remains intense, with some experiencing net outflows, while others continue to grow steadily, highlighting the dynamic nature of the market [39].

- The report provides an overview of the major asset markets, including equities, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange[5][10][11][33][40] - The report highlights the performance of various indices in the A-share market, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others, with specific percentage changes for each[10][12][13] - The report also details the performance of different sectors within the A-share market, noting significant gains in sectors like military, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, and declines in sectors like pharmaceuticals, computers, and retail[10][15] - The report includes information on the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with specific indices and their percentage changes, as well as sector performance within the Hong Kong market[11][18][20][22] - The report covers the performance of the US stock market, including indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, along with other international indices[11][26][27] - The report provides details on the bond market, including changes in yields for various government and corporate bonds, as well as credit spreads and term spreads[28][29][30][31] - The report discusses the performance of the commodity market, listing the percentage changes for various commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and others[33][34][35][36][38] - The report includes information on the foreign exchange market, detailing the exchange rates of various currencies against the RMB and their percentage changes[40][42] - The report provides an overview of the fund market, including the number of newly established funds, their types, and their sizes[43][44] - The report details the overall performance of different types of funds, including equity funds, balanced funds, fixed income funds, FOFs, commodity funds, and QDII funds, with specific percentage returns for each category over different time periods[49][50][51] - The report lists the top-performing funds over the past week, month, year, and year-to-date, along with their specific returns and other details[52] - The report also lists the worst-performing funds over the same periods, with specific returns and other details[53]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and trends in Fund of Funds (FOF) investment, emphasizing the importance of multi-asset and multi-strategy configurations in portfolio construction, as well as the significance of fund selection and investment objectives in achieving stable returns [2][10]. Group 1: Portfolio Construction - The importance of asset allocation is well-known, with classic investment theory suggesting that 90% of fund performance comes from asset allocation. However, many domestic investors initially understood asset allocation as merely the proportion of equities, bonds, and cash, which requires high foresight and predictability [4]. - The diversification of investment tools has allowed for a more mature multi-asset allocation environment in China since 2022, with an increasing number of tools available for FOF investment, including QDII funds and commodity funds [4][5]. - A key aspect of multi-asset allocation is to maintain low correlation between different asset classes, ideally negative correlation, to enhance net value stability. However, investors should be cautious of sudden high correlations during extreme market conditions [7]. - A new direction in asset allocation is multi-strategy configuration, which has been effectively applied in quantitative private equity. This approach combines various effective strategies to achieve more stable excess returns [7][8]. Group 2: Fund Selection - The two main pillars of FOF investment are asset allocation and fund selection. Despite the increasing importance of asset allocation, the significance of fund selection remains high. The ability to select funds is fundamentally about acquiring the alpha capability of fund managers [11]. - The alpha capability of excellent fund managers has shown a trend of recovery since 2025, with active management of public equity funds significantly outperforming mainstream market indices [11][12]. - When assessing a fund manager's alpha capability, it is crucial to separate industry beta and thematic beta, as these represent structural risks rather than true alpha [12]. Group 3: Investment Objectives - Common investment objectives for public funds include pursuing absolute returns, outperforming benchmarks, and leading in peer rankings. Each of these objectives holds different importance for investors, managers, and peer institutions [15]. - Absolute return is considered the ultimate goal for any investment product, especially after recent market fluctuations. Regulatory bodies have begun to suggest that average absolute returns should be a key performance indicator for fund managers [16]. - Outperforming benchmarks is essential for establishing trust with investors and is a core competency for fund companies. Recent market changes have highlighted the need for funds to consistently exceed benchmarks to ensure healthy industry development [17][18]. - Leading in rankings should not be an explicit goal, as it can lead to herd behavior among fund managers. Instead, focusing on absolute returns and benchmark outperformance will naturally result in favorable rankings over time [19].

Core Insights - The public fund market in China reached a record high of 34.05 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, marking a 7.04% increase from the previous quarter and a 10.76% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-monetary fund assets grew to 20.11 trillion yuan, with a quarterly increase of 1.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.85% rise [1] - The overall public fund market experienced a net subscription of 1.25 trillion units in Q2 2025, with a net subscription ratio of 4.31% [1] Fund Products and Company Performance - In Q2 2025, equity funds saw a growth of 271.47 billion yuan, reaching a total of 4.74 trillion yuan, while mixed funds experienced a slight increase of 0.02% to 3.32 trillion yuan [2] - Active equity funds faced net redemptions totaling 107.34 billion units, with ordinary stock funds leading at a redemption rate of 4.75% [2] - Bond funds and money market funds regained investor interest, with bond funds achieving a net subscription of 459.25 billion units and a growth of 8.74% to 10.77 trillion yuan [3] - Commodity funds surged by 47.8% to 268.31 billion yuan, driven by rising gold prices [3] - The ETF market reached a new high of 4.31 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for 75.06% of the total [3] Company Rankings and Growth - The top ten public fund managers remain unchanged, with E Fund and Huaxia Fund leading in non-monetary fund management scale, both exceeding 1 trillion yuan [6] - Huaxia Fund reported a significant growth of 181.49 billion yuan in Q2, leading the industry in scale increase [6] - In the first half of 2025, Huaxia Fund's growth was 307.34 billion yuan, followed by E Fund and Xingye Fund [6] - Huaxia Fund's index products contributed significantly to its growth, reaching 857.97 billion yuan, accounting for 66.48% of its non-monetary scale [7] Investor Engagement and Services - Huaxia Fund focuses on enhancing investor experience through a diverse range of over 400 public products and a multi-asset platform [8] - The "Red Rocket" platform, launched in late 2024, has attracted over 10 million users, providing various fund data and indicators [8] - The upgraded "Red Rocket 2.0" offers new features for asset management and historical performance testing, enhancing investor engagement [9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry has reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with both total fund management scale and non-monetary fund management scale reaching historical highs, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2]. Fund Management Scale - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total public fund management scale reached 34 trillion yuan, while the non-monetary fund management scale was 20 trillion yuan, both marking historical peaks [2][3]. - The total public fund scale increased by 7.04% from Q1 2025 and by 10.76% year-on-year from Q2 2024 [2]. - The non-monetary fund scale grew by 6.85% from the previous quarter, reaching 20.11 trillion yuan [2]. Fund Types and Performance - The largest market scales were seen in money market funds and bond funds, with sizes of 13.93 trillion yuan and 10.77 trillion yuan, reflecting increases of 7.32% and 8.74% respectively [3]. - Equity funds reached a scale of 4.74 trillion yuan, growing by 6.06% quarter-on-quarter, while mixed funds saw minimal growth [3]. - Commodity funds and fund of funds (FOF) experienced significant growth, with increases of 47.79% and 10.28%, respectively [3]. Investment Trends - Public funds increased their allocations to the financial and technology sectors, with increases of 1.82% and 1.71%, while reducing allocations to the consumer sector by 3.9% [5]. - The top three sectors by allocation weight were electronics, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment & new energy, with weights of 18.88%, 11.11%, and 8.8% respectively [5]. - Notably, the automotive sector, which had seen significant investment in the previous quarter, experienced a reduction in holdings [6]. Major Holdings - The top ten holdings of public funds included Tencent Holdings, CATL, and Kweichow Moutai, with Tencent's total market value held by public funds at approximately 59.2 billion yuan [6][7]. - New entrants to the top ten holdings included Xiaomi Group and New Yisheng, while BYD and Wuliangye exited the list [7]. Investor Behavior - Investors showed a preference for money market funds, bond funds, commodity funds, and QDII funds, leading to net subscriptions in these categories, while equity funds and FOFs faced net redemptions [8][9]. - The total fund share exceeded 30 trillion shares by the end of June, with a net subscription of 1.25 trillion shares in the quarter [8]. - Money market funds and bond funds were the main contributors to net subscriptions, with net subscriptions of 887.67 billion shares and 459.25 billion shares, respectively [9]. Redemption Trends - Equity funds experienced net redemptions totaling 140.27 billion shares, with actively managed equity funds leading in redemptions [10]. - FOFs also faced net redemptions of 5.53 billion shares, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from these products [11].