证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 ◼ 消费"K 型分化"出现的原因 ➢ 从需求端来看，代际人口变化以及宏观政策从投资于物逐步转向投资于 人两方面因素下消费者消费理念的变化是消费市场"K 型分化"的重要 原因，情绪价值成为了消费者除实用价值外的另一重要考量，对于"高 度奢华"以及"极具性价比"两种能带来高价值的消费需求明显提升。 从供给端来看，零售商面临的存量市场竞争加剧和产品竞争力的根本性 转变，构成了消费"K 型分化"的市场基础。 ◼ 消费"K 型分化"背后反映出的理论转变 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 宏观深度报告 20260108 "该省省、该花花"——中国消费的"K 型分化" 2026 年 01 月 08 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：近些年，在居民收入结构调整和代际人口变动等多方面因素 的影响下，我国消费市场出现明显的两极化特征，即"K 型分化"，在 K 型分化的一端，是具有高情绪价值、高溢价的高端品质消费，而在 K 型 分化的另一端，则是具有高实用价值 ...

上海年末迎来多场新展。浦东美术馆双展齐开：在"非常毕加索"中，邂逅毕加索的创意世界；于"图案 的奇迹"里，一览卢浮宫珍藏的东方艺术瑰宝。 上海博物馆人民广场馆以"海派旗袍"勾勒百年摩登风韵；世博会博物馆呈现清代外销珍品，见证中西文 化交融；上海朵云轩艺术中心则展出了第八届中国书坛中青年"百强榜"所有作品。 第十三届上海美术大展即将于2026年1月4日在上海美术馆（中华艺术宫）落幕；而"百年守护——从紫 禁城到故宫博物院"特展也将于12月30日在故宫博物院结束。 另外，香港故宫文化博物馆正在举行"莫卧儿王朝瑰宝"展，聚焦16至17世纪南亚艺术，展现中西文化交 流。 上海 非常毕加索：保罗·史密斯的新视角 展期：2025年12月22日至2026年5月3日 地点：上海浦东美术馆 展览以来自巴黎毕加索博物馆80件毕加索跨越70余年的作品，通过展览艺术总监、英国设计师保罗·史 密斯独特的设计，让观众以全新的方式感受这位二十世纪艺术巨匠的创意世界。 图案的奇迹: 卢浮宫印度、伊朗与奥斯曼的艺术杰作 展期：2025年12月13日 - 2026年5月6日 地点：上海浦东美术馆 约300件卢浮宫馆藏珍品，为卢浮宫在华最大展览。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Automotive Market Key Insights and Arguments - The automotive market in 2025 is significantly influenced by policy changes, with subsidy reductions and stricter measures expected to suppress consumption, particularly affecting the economy car segment [1][4] - In October, discounts on vehicles increased but did not lead to a price war; brands like BYD and Geely launched new models while older models saw moderate price reductions [1][6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026 will depend on the continuation of policies and technological upgrades, with trends towards larger batteries, longer ranges, and fast-charging technologies [1][8] - High-end joint venture brands are expected to continue losing market share, especially in the price range above 250,000 yuan, due to competition from domestic NEVs [1][9] Market Demand and Trends - Overall demand and foot traffic in November decreased compared to October, primarily due to a pause in subsidy policies leading to consumer hesitation [2] - December is expected to see a rebound in demand, but year-on-year comparisons will still show a decline due to inventory clearance needs and potential tax increases from new technology [2][5] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be optimistic due to seasonal sales and government subsidies, although challenges are expected in March and April, particularly for economy cars [5][16] Discount and Pricing Strategies - Discounts in October and November were deeper than in September, particularly during the National Day holiday, but did not violate regulatory policies [6] - Discounts for brands like BYD and Xpeng decreased by approximately 10% in November compared to October, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [6] Company-Specific Insights BYD - BYD plans to launch the M6 and a new generation of plug-in hybrid technology in 2026, aiming to enhance electric range and low-temperature fast-charging capabilities [3][12] - Domestic retail sales for BYD in 2025 are projected to be between 3.2 to 3.3 million units, a decline from 3.5 million units in 2024, but a recovery is expected in 2026 with about 10% growth [13] Tesla - Tesla's market outlook for the next two years is cautious, with expectations of stagnation or potential decline unless improvements in their Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology are made [11] - The introduction of lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y variants is anticipated to expand market share in the first quarter of 2026 [11] Xiaomi - Xiaomi's current monthly delivery volume is around 50,000 units, with a significant portion of orders being speculative due to the second-hand market collapse [17] - The delivery cycle is currently projected at 20 to 25 weeks, but actual delivery may take longer, leading to an order backlog [17] Joint Venture Brands - High-end joint venture brands like BMW and Mercedes are expected to face significant pressure, particularly in the mid-range segment, while lower-priced joint venture brands remain competitive due to a lack of strong rivals [10] Future Challenges - The implementation of the trade-in policy has been smooth initially, but challenges are expected in March and April 2026 due to diminishing subsidy levels and potential inventory issues [16] Additional Important Insights - The competition between BYD and Geely in technology upgrades is likely to intensify, with both companies aiming to push the NEV penetration rate above 60% by March 2026 [1][8] - The market for traditional fuel vehicles is expected to face challenges from the increasing presence of electric models, particularly in the under 100,000 yuan segment [10]

Core Points - The article highlights the recognition of Lian Yubo, the chief scientist of BYD, who has been elected as an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, underscoring his significant contributions to the rise of China's automotive industry and BYD's leadership in the electric vehicle sector [1][12] - Lian Yubo is credited with developing BYD's comprehensive new energy technology, which has positioned the company as a leader in the global automotive market [1][10] Group 1: Background of Lian Yubo - Lian Yubo was born in 1964 in Yizheng, Jiangsu, and initially aspired to work in aviation, studying at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics [1] - After being redirected to the automotive industry, he spent years acquiring automotive knowledge and skills, eventually becoming the deputy chief engineer at Yizheng Automobile Factory [1][3] - Lian Yubo joined BYD in 2004, where he established the company's R&D center in Shanghai and began building a team of engineers [1][4] Group 2: Contributions to BYD - Lian Yubo played a crucial role in developing BYD's first widely recognized compact car, the F3, which sold over 100,000 units in less than a year, marking a significant achievement for the brand [4][6] - Under his leadership, BYD launched several successful models, including the F0 and F6, while also focusing on the development of new energy vehicles [4][5] - Lian Yubo was instrumental in the creation of BYD's DM-i hybrid technology and the e6 electric vehicle, which validated the company's self-developed technologies [5][6][9] Group 3: Technological Innovations - Lian Yubo's engineering team at BYD has introduced several advanced technologies, including silicon carbide power control, blade batteries, and innovative vehicle architectures [9][10] - His leadership has been pivotal in transforming BYD from a secondary player in the automotive market to the largest car manufacturer in China, with an annual production and sales volume of 4 million vehicles [8][10] - The recognition of Lian Yubo as an academician reflects the broader advancements in China's new energy and smart automotive sectors, highlighting the importance of technological leadership in the industry [11][12]

Core Insights - The current liquor industry is undergoing a significant "stress test," with most companies facing performance pressure in the third quarter, indicating a collective transformation challenge within the industry [1] - The article analyzes how Gujing Gongjiu is navigating this transformation through structural changes and new market opportunities, aiming to exchange short-term fluctuations for long-term potential [1] Product Structure Optimization - In the era of stock competition in the liquor industry, broad growth is no longer sustainable, making precise structural optimization essential [2] - Gujing Gongjiu launched the "Light Ancient 20" product in August, targeting consumer demand for comfort and reduced burden, thus expanding its user base in the mid-to-high-end price range [2][4] - The return of classic products like "Old Porcelain Tribute" and "Old Glass Tribute" meets consumer demands for value, while the introduction of "Shenli Wine" indicates a shift towards functional innovation [4] - The global launch of new products themed "Han, Tang, Song, Ming" at the Osaka Expo highlights Gujing Gongjiu's focus on international market expansion [4][6] Strategic Shift to "Health" - The establishment of Anhui Gujing Health Technology Co., Ltd. and the launch of "Gujing Light Health Society" signify a strategic pivot towards the "white liquor + health" model [7] - This approach leverages the traditional cultural connection between liquor and health, transforming implicit associations into explicit brand experiences [7][9] - Although initial investments may dilute current profits, the strategic value of entering the health sector is evident, as it resonates across all age groups [9] Market Strategy and Long-term Vision - Gujing Gongjiu's chairman emphasizes a strategy of "rooting down, growing up, and meticulous management" to build long-term competitiveness [10] - The company focuses on deepening customer relationships and enhancing channel health rather than merely addressing quarterly performance challenges [10][11] - The current market strategy aims to create a solid foundation for future product penetration and market expansion, reflecting a commitment to sustainable high-quality development [11]

Core Insights - The current liquor industry is undergoing a significant "stress test," with most companies facing performance pressure in Q3, indicating a collective transformation challenge within the industry [1][9] - Gujing Gongjiu is actively responding to changing consumer trends through product structure optimization and innovation, aiming to exchange short-term fluctuations for long-term potential [1][5] Product Structure Optimization - In the era of stock competition, Gujing Gongjiu is focusing on precise structural optimization as a core strategy, especially in response to changing consumption scenarios [1][5] - The launch of the "Light Ancient 20" product in August targets consumer demand for comfort and reduced burden, reinforcing its position in the mid-to-high-end market [1][3] - The return of classic products like "Old Porcelain Tribute" and "Old Glass Tribute" caters to consumer preferences for value, while the introduction of "Divine Power Wine" indicates a shift towards functional innovation [3][5] - The global launch of new products themed "Han, Tang, Song, Ming" at the Osaka Expo signifies Gujing Gongjiu's commitment to international market expansion [5][8] Strategic Shift Towards Health - The establishment of Anhui Gujing Health Technology Co., Ltd. and the launch of "Gujing Light Health Society" highlight a strategic pivot towards the "white liquor + health" model [5][7] - This approach leverages the traditional cultural association of liquor with health, aiming to create a brand experience that transcends mere transactions [7][9] - Although initial investments may dilute current profits, the strategic value of entering the health sector is evident, as it resonates with a broad consumer base [7][9] Market Strategy and Long-term Vision - Gujing Gongjiu's leadership emphasizes a strategy of "rooting downwards and growing upwards," focusing on deep market engagement and stable policy implementation [8][9] - The company prioritizes building high-quality, efficient, and loyal channel alliances over merely achieving short-term sales targets [8][9] - The current market strategy is not just about addressing quarterly performance challenges but is aimed at establishing a solid foundation for long-term growth and market penetration [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of domestic new energy vehicles (NEVs) is notable, but there remains a significant demand for domestic fuel vehicles, indicating a complex market landscape [1]. Sales Performance - The best-selling fuel vehicle is the Xingrui, accounting for one-third of monthly sales, followed by Boyue L and Emgrand [3]. - The overall sales of fuel vehicles have remained stable compared to last year, but there is increased pressure from the growing interest in NEVs [4]. - The most popular fuel vehicles in the store include the M8, GS8, M6 series, and the Ying Su series, with Ying Su selling around 18-20 units monthly [6]. - The top-selling fuel cars are the fourth-generation CS75PLUS, CS55PLUS, and Yidong PLUS, collectively selling about 35 units monthly, representing over 65% of total sales [9]. Customer Demographics - Fuel vehicle buyers are predominantly middle-aged, with a mix of professions including factory workers, nurses, and teachers, often requiring vehicles for long-distance travel [3]. - The customer base for the Ying Su is diverse, including first-time buyers and retirees, with a general preference for the reliability of fuel vehicles over NEVs [6]. - Younger customers, often purchasing their first car, primarily consider fuel vehicles, with some interest in plug-in hybrids [10]. Market Trends - There is a noticeable decline in overall sales compared to last year, with profit margins also decreasing, leading to a push for additional services [7]. - The acceptance of NEVs is increasing, with customers recognizing the advantages in product configuration and overall purchase experience [7]. - The market for fuel vehicles is expected to improve slightly next year due to potential changes in tax policies and the reduction of subsidies for NEVs [13][15]. Competitive Landscape - Competing fuel vehicles include popular models like the Langyi and Suteng, with domestic brands such as Chery, GAC, and Changan being compared within similar price ranges [3]. - The lack of competitive pricing and product offerings in the NEV segment is noted, particularly in the 150,000 yuan price range, which is currently underserved [7]. - The best-selling fuel vehicles in the store include the Aiyue 5 and Aiyue 8, appealing to younger consumers due to their affordability and design [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Gujinggongjiu, is strategically slowing down its operations to relieve pressure while maintaining a solid operational foundation amidst a challenging environment in the liquor industry [1][3]. Group 1: Operational Strategy - The company is controlling channel inventory and stabilizing pricing to ensure a solid operational baseline [1]. - Gujinggongjiu's digital management system, "Digital Gujing," effectively covers production, marketing, and management, allowing for agile responses to market changes [3]. - The company is actively reducing inventory and easing financial burdens on distributors, optimizing their quotas to alleviate financial pressure [5]. Group 2: Marketing and Sales Performance - The company is focusing on "hard marketing" to activate terminal sales, enhancing resource allocation and improving the effectiveness of marketing expenditures [5]. - In the core market of Central China, revenue has steadily increased, with the "Year Original Sauce" series showing a year-on-year growth of 1.59% [5]. - The company is leveraging e-commerce as a growth engine, with online revenue reaching 573 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.19% [7]. Group 3: Global Expansion - Gujinggongjiu is utilizing the Osaka World Expo to enhance global brand recognition, launching a series of "Guochao" products to target different overseas consumer segments [7]. - The company is employing a dual strategy of channel innovation and global layout to navigate the intensified competition in the industry [7][8]. - The brand's internationalization efforts are supported by a clear strategic logic, aiming to enhance brand awareness and reach diverse consumer groups [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic initiatives of Gujinggongjiu to adapt to the challenges in the liquor industry, focusing on product innovation, health integration, and international expansion as key areas for growth and resilience in a competitive market [3][6][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Gujinggongjiu reported a revenue of 16.425 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters [3]. - The liquor industry is expected to face a significant adjustment by 2025, characterized by reduced volume, declining prices, and high inventory pressure [3]. Group 2: Product Innovation - The company is launching the "Yearly Original Light Gu 20" to target younger consumers, emphasizing a "light" drinking experience that aligns with current market trends [3][4]. - Gujinggongjiu is reviving classic products like the Old Porcelain Tribute and Old Glass Tribute to evoke nostalgia and cater to price-sensitive consumers [5]. - The introduction of health-oriented products, such as the "Vitality," "Power," "Transparency," and "Worry-Free" functional health wines, reflects the company's proactive approach to health trends [5]. Group 3: Business Model Evolution - The "White Liquor + Health" strategy represents a significant shift, with the establishment of "Gujing Light Health Society" to create a comprehensive consumer ecosystem [6][7]. - This new model integrates health drinks, light meals, and cultural experiences, transforming the brand from a mere product seller to a health lifestyle partner [7]. Group 4: International Expansion - Gujinggongjiu has been actively participating in international events, such as the Osaka World Expo, to enhance its global brand presence [8][9]. - The company has formed strategic alliances with Japanese firms to expand its market reach and improve sales channels abroad [9]. - The cultural connection between Chinese liquor and historical civilizations is leveraged to facilitate understanding among overseas consumers [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the internationalization efforts of Gujinggongjiu, showcasing its cultural and product innovations at the Osaka Expo and Tokyo events, emphasizing the brand's role in promoting Chinese liquor globally [2][12][17] Group 1: Internationalization Strategy - Gujinggongjiu has positioned itself as a pioneer in the internationalization of Chinese liquor, participating in multiple global events, including the Osaka Expo, to enhance its brand visibility [12][17] - The company has established cultural research centers in cities like Berlin, Paris, and Tokyo, facilitating localized cultural exchanges and long-term engagement with international markets [16][17] Group 2: Product Innovation - The launch of the "Han, Tang, Song, Ming" series of products at the Osaka Expo reflects Gujinggongjiu's commitment to blending traditional Chinese culture with modern consumer preferences, featuring a lower alcohol content to cater to international tastes [5][17] - The strategic product "G20" was introduced as a commemorative item for the Osaka Expo, symbolizing the partnership between Gujinggongjiu and the Chinese Pavilion [3][12] Group 3: Cultural Promotion - Gujinggongjiu's events included cultural performances and interactive activities that highlighted the historical significance of its products, aiming to educate international audiences about Chinese liquor culture [6][11] - The company has initiated the "Global Reading of Bozhou" campaign to promote the cultural heritage of Bozhou, further enhancing its brand narrative on the global stage [8][11] Group 4: Economic Cooperation - Strategic partnerships were formed with Japanese companies during the Tokyo event, indicating a focus on economic collaboration alongside cultural exchange [6][12] - The establishment of the "Gujing Liquor Culture Research Institute - Tokyo Center" serves as a platform for ongoing cultural and economic cooperation between China and Japan [9][12]