宏观专题 消费补贴和信贷贴息如何推动扩内 需？——挖掘经济潜能系列二 2026 年 02 月 27 日 【宏观观点】 【风险提示】 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：陈然 证书编号：S1160524060002 相关研究 《"双碳"政策有望提力加速》 2026.02.25 《地方两会系列（一）——经济增长目标》 2026.02.13 2026.01.05 宏 观 研 究 / 宏 观 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年，补贴对经济的贡献加大，"两新""两重"等政策支撑消费和 投资稳步修复。一方面，消费补贴和供给优化协同发力，补贴类商品 增速保持高位。另一方面，"财政补贴+税收信贷优惠"对投资的影响 较大，设备更新、高技术服务、政策托底基建等重点领域投资较快增 长。 2026 年，扩内需政策持续优化，消费补贴和投资贴息或仍是年内核心 举措。"两新"政策的优化支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制，突出对中 小企业、绿色转型、新技术新产品新场景的支持。降低结构性货币政 策工具利率，同时对中小微民营、制造业设备更新、服务业贷款进行 贴息 ...

2月25日，上海正式发布2026年首个房地产新政——"沪七条"，旨在更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求。该政策由市住建委、市房管局等部门联合印发， 涉及限购、公积金及房产税三大领域调整，并将于2月26日起施行。 此次调整中，非沪籍居民购买外环内住房的社保或个税缴纳年限由"连续满3年"缩短至"满1年"；连续缴纳满3年及以上者，可在执行现有限购政策基础上， 于外环内增购1套住房。 公积金政策大幅优化，首套房公积金贷款最高额度由160万元提升至240万元，叠加多子女家庭及绿色建筑上浮政策后，家庭最高可贷324万元。此外，对已 结清公积金贷款的缴存人家庭，若上海名下无房或仅有一套，再次购房时可重新申请公积金贷款。 房产税方面，对户籍家庭中的成年子女，若新购住房为其家庭唯一住房（不含未成年时与父母共有的住房），暂免征收个人住房房产税，支持置换改善需 求。 业内分析认为，新政在释放刚需及改善型购房活力的同时，也将直接带动家装、家居等下游消费市场，为2026年上海家居行业带来积极预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the execution of the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Plan in Sichuan Province, highlighting significant achievements and setting the stage for the 2026 plan, emphasizing high-quality development and strategic initiatives for economic growth. Group 1: 2025 Economic and Social Development Plan Execution - The GDP reached 67,665.3 billion yuan, growing by 5.5%, meeting the expected target [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) decreased by 2.4%, falling short of the expected target due to declines in real estate and infrastructure investments [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%, exceeding the expected target [4] - Total import and export volume was 10,318.1 billion yuan, meeting the expected target [5] - Local general public budget revenue reached 5,853.9 billion yuan, growing by 3.9%, surpassing the expected target [6] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income grew by 4.4%, meeting the expected target [7] - Rural residents' per capita disposable income increased by 5.6%, meeting the expected target [8] - Consumer prices decreased by 0.3%, meeting the expected target [9] - Urban employment increased by 1.073 million, exceeding the expected target by 223,000 [10] - The urbanization rate of the permanent population is expected to exceed 61%, increasing by about 1 percentage point from the previous year, roughly meeting the expected target [11] - Grain production reached 732.5 billion jin, exceeding the expected target by 75 million jin [13] Group 2: Economic and Social Development Situation - The regional coordinated development pattern has been optimized, with significant progress in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [14] - The "Five Districts Common Prosperity" development strategy has been advanced, with key projects achieving substantial investment [15] - County economies have shown significant improvement, with 39 underdeveloped counties receiving targeted support [16] - Domestic demand has been steadily increasing, with consumption policies stimulating growth [17] - Key projects have accelerated implementation, with a high completion rate of provincial key projects [18] - Innovation capabilities have significantly improved, with the establishment of high-level innovation platforms and successful technology breakthroughs [19][20] - The traditional industries are undergoing rapid transformation and upgrading, with significant growth in key sectors [22] - New and future industries are being rapidly developed, with a focus on emerging technologies [23] - A new service system is being actively constructed, with notable growth in the service sector [24] Group 3: Market Vitality and Economic Environment - The environment for private economic development is steadily improving, with significant growth in private sector contributions to GDP [26][27] - State-owned enterprise reforms have shown significant results, with increased revenue and strategic restructuring [28] - Digital infrastructure development is advancing, with initiatives to enhance data utilization and government services [29] Group 4: High-Level Opening Up - The opening channels and platforms are becoming increasingly complete, with enhanced logistics and transportation networks [30] - The scale of the open economy is stabilizing and improving, with significant growth in foreign trade and investment [31][32] Group 5: Urban-Rural Integration and Environmental Protection - New urbanization is accelerating, with significant improvements in urban infrastructure and rural revitalization efforts [33][34] - Ecological environment quality is improving, with successful implementation of environmental protection measures [36][37] Group 6: Social Welfare and Public Services - Employment and income growth measures have been effective, with significant increases in disposable income and job creation [38][39] - Public service systems are becoming more robust, with improvements in healthcare, education, and social security [40] Group 7: Safety and Risk Management - Food and energy security measures are being effectively implemented, ensuring stable supply chains [41] - Risk prevention and control measures are in place, addressing financial and operational risks [42]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for effective tax policies to stimulate consumption in Beijing, leveraging the city's demographic advantages and rising income levels to unlock potential growth in domestic demand [1] Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - Current consumer expectations are cautious, and the cost on the supply side is high, leading to short-term and fragmented consumption promotion policies [1] - Existing consumption incentives rely heavily on subsidies and vouchers, which are effective in the short term but lack sustainability and structural guidance [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Tax Policy - Enhance the directness and efficiency of tax reduction policies to boost consumer confidence and spending power, including better promotion of individual income tax deductions and support for flexible employment [2] - Utilize tax policies to drive the renewal of durable goods, focusing on sectors like automobiles and home appliances, to shift consumption from "incremental purchases" to "quality upgrades" [2] Group 3: Support for New Consumption Models - Increase tax support for service consumption and new business models, particularly in cultural and sports sectors, to lower initial costs for enterprises and stimulate market supply [3] - Focus on nighttime economy and community commerce, maintaining tax incentives for small businesses to stabilize employment and local consumption [3] Group 4: Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption Promotion - Establish a collaborative mechanism among various departments to shift consumption policies from "single-point stimulation" to "comprehensive efforts" for sustainable impact [3] - Improve digital tax services and create a dynamic evaluation mechanism to ensure tax policies are precise, effective, and sustainable [3] Group 5: Reflection on Past Year - The article reflects on the past year's efforts in enhancing Beijing's fiscal strength and industry development through grassroots research and effective policy suggestions [4]

Core Insights - Fujian Province's economy has shown steady progress this year, with GDP growth rates of 5.7% in Q1, 5.7% in Q2, and 5.2% in Q3 [1][2] - The province has completed investments of 676.7 billion yuan in 1,550 key projects from January to November, exceeding the planned schedule [1] - Significant developments in transportation and energy sectors include the completion of the F1 line of the Fuzhou to Changle Airport intercity railway and the first phase of Fuzhou Metro Line 4 [1] Economic Performance - The overall economic operation in Fujian is stable, with efforts focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - Consumer spending has been effectively boosted, with over 7.44 million consumers benefiting from the appliance and home decoration subsidy programs, leading to sales exceeding 77.1 billion yuan [1] Investment and Reforms - Fujian is enhancing its development vitality through reforms and opening up, with the approval of the comprehensive reform pilot for market-oriented allocation of factors in Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Quanzhou [2] - The province has implemented the New Era Private Economy Strong Province Strategy, resulting in a 5.5% increase in the added value of the private economy, surpassing the provincial average [2] Infrastructure and Connectivity - The "Silk Road Maritime" international cooperation forum and the construction of the "Maritime Silk Road" core area have been successfully held, increasing the number of named routes to 148 [2] - Fujian is actively building a cross-strait integration development demonstration zone, with 206 key projects promoting cross-strait economic integration [2]

Group 1 - The National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 27-28, where the Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, emphasized the importance of boosting consumption in the upcoming year [1] - The government plans to continue the "National Subsidy" policy into 2026, with adjustments to the scope and standards of subsidies [1] - The fiscal policy will focus on expanding fiscal spending, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure [1] Group 2 - The subsidy standards for certain consumer goods have been raised, with the scrap and replacement subsidy for qualifying vehicles increasing from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles, and from 7,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [2] - The funding for the "National Subsidy" comes from the issuance of ultra-long special bonds, with an issuance amount of 150 billion yuan in 2024 and increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [2] - Experts suggest that the "National Subsidy" policy should shift focus from goods consumption to service consumption, exploring cash subsidies and digital currency as new forms of consumption incentives [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "National Consumption Upgrade" policy, aimed at boosting consumer spending through subsidies for replacing old products, will continue into 2026 with adjustments to its scope and standards to enhance its effectiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Evolution - The "National Consumption Upgrade" policy originated during the 2008 global financial crisis to stimulate consumption by providing subsidies for major consumer goods, focusing on rapid market activation [1]. - The 2024 reintroduction of the policy marks a shift from a short-term emergency response to a long-term empowerment strategy, with three major upgrades compared to earlier versions [2]. Group 2: Coverage and Standards - The coverage of the policy will expand from a single category to multiple scenarios, including automotive scrappage and eight categories of home appliances in 2024, and further extending to "all-scenario quality consumption" in 2025 [2][3]. - Subsidy standards will transition from a uniform approach to a differentiated optimization, with increased subsidies for electric vehicles and fuel vehicles to encourage green consumption [2][3]. Group 3: Funding Mechanism - Funding for the policy will shift from annual budgets to long-term special government bonds, with allocations increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025, providing stable support for the policy's sustainability [2][3]. - The systematic design of "coverage-standards-funding" will transform the policy from an emergency stimulus tool to a normalized consumption promotion mechanism [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the policy's effectiveness, challenges such as regional protectionism and cumbersome application processes may hinder its universal benefits, particularly for older consumers [4][5]. - To enhance the policy's impact, it is recommended to refine coverage, standard design, and supporting mechanisms, ensuring a precise and sustainable policy framework [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "National Consumption Upgrade" policy, aimed at boosting consumer spending, will continue into 2026 with adjustments to subsidy scope and standards, as announced by the Minister of Finance at the national fiscal work conference [1] Group 1: Policy Evolution - The "National Consumption Upgrade" policy originated during the 2008 global financial crisis to stimulate consumption through subsidies for major consumer goods, focusing on rapid market activation [1] - The 2024 reintroduction of the policy marks a shift from short-term emergency measures to long-term empowerment, with three major upgrades compared to earlier versions [1] Group 2: Coverage and Standards - The coverage of the policy will expand from single categories to multiple scenarios, with the 2024 focus on vehicle scrappage and eight types of household appliances, and a broader scope for 2025 that includes digital products and home decoration [2] - Subsidy standards will transition from a uniform approach to differentiated optimization, such as increasing subsidies for new energy vehicles from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan [2][3] - The funding source will shift from annual budgets to long-term special government bonds, with 150 billion yuan allocated in 2024 and 300 billion yuan in 2025, ensuring stable support for the policy [2][3] Group 3: Systematic Design - The expansion of subsidy categories and optimization of standards are coordinated with strengthened funding sources, creating a systematic design that transforms the policy from an emergency stimulus tool to a normalized consumption promotion mechanism [3] - Despite the policy's effectiveness, challenges remain, such as the temporary suspension of subsidies in some regions due to faster consumption of funds than bond issuance, necessitating a focus on existing funds rather than increasing the budget [3] Group 4: Implementation Challenges - The increase in subsidy categories may lead to local protectionism, where local brands receive preferential treatment, potentially distorting market competition [4] - Complicated application processes may deter consumers, particularly older individuals or those in rural areas, from accessing subsidies, undermining the policy's universality [4] - To ensure the policy effectively stimulates consumption, precise efforts are needed in coverage, standard design, and supporting mechanisms, including the establishment of a unified information platform for the entire process [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new developments in China's "National Subsidy" policy for consumer goods, emphasizing the continuation and optimization of the subsidy program in 2026 to boost consumption [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Continuation and Adjustments - The "National Subsidy" policy will continue in 2026, with adjustments to the scope and standards of subsidies [4]. - Since the implementation of the "National Subsidy" policy in 2024, the range of eligible products has been continuously optimized, expanding from 8 categories in 2024 to include additional products in 2025 [5]. - The subsidy standards for certain consumer goods have been adjusted, such as increasing the subsidy for scrapping and updating cars from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan for eligible new energy vehicles [5]. Group 2: Funding and Financial Support - The funding for the "National Subsidy" primarily comes from the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, with the amount increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The Ministry of Finance has confirmed that it will continue to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2026 to support the "National Subsidy" [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Future Implementation - Experts suggest that the effectiveness of the "National Subsidy" has declined due to previous demand being pulled forward and recommend shifting the focus from product subsidies to service consumption [6][7]. - There is a call for the inclusion of cash subsidies, digital currency, and support for childcare and employment in future subsidy programs [6].

Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic growth, marking a strategic shift in focus from merely stimulating consumption to prioritizing it as a long-term economic engine [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 4% from January to November, surpassing both the previous year's growth and the overall annual level [3]. - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year, solidifying consumption's role as the primary driver of economic growth [3]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The government implemented a comprehensive set of policies to boost consumption, including initiatives for replacing old consumer goods and expanding service consumption, which collectively injected significant momentum into the market [4]. - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods was expanded to cover various sectors, leading to over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [4]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - There was a notable shift in consumer behavior towards experience-based consumption, with a blend of online and offline shopping environments enhancing market vitality [5][6]. - New consumption models, such as instant retail and live-streaming e-commerce, gained traction, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that with ongoing employment stabilization and income growth measures, along with an expanding supply of quality goods, the potential of China's consumption market will continue to be unleashed, supporting sustained economic progress [8].