机构：辉立证券(香港) 研究员：章晶 公司簡介 吉利汽車是我國自主品牌乘用車領軍企業之一，主營乘用車及核心零部件的研發、生產和銷售，自主掌 握汽車領域核心技術，廣泛佈局主流車型市場。公司旗下產品包括吉利、幾何、領克、極氪、睿藍、銀 河六大子品牌，覆蓋A0 至C 級乘用車市場。 投資概要 上半年業績強勁，核心淨利同比翻番 吉利汽車公佈2025 年中期業績，2025 年上半年的總收入達到 1502.8 億元（人民幣，下同），同比 +26.5%，創歷史新高；歸母淨利潤92.9 億元，同比-13.9%；如果剔除外匯匯兑收益、減值虧損及2024 年視為出售附屬公司之收益後，核心歸母利潤為 66.6億元，同比+102%。 第二季度單季度，公司實現營業收入777.9 億元，同/環比分別+28.4%/+7.3%；我們測算扣除匯兑收益及 一次性收益影響後的核心歸母淨利潤約31.8 億元，同/環比分別+127%/-8.7%。 新能源車銷量快速增加，占比超50% 上半年公司累計總銷量達到140.9 萬輛，同比+47.4%，遠高於同期國內乘用車行業+13%的銷量同比增 速。其中，新能源車累計72.5 萬輛，同比+126.5%，占比5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed financial outlook for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1] - The company’s average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 95,500 yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 16.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company’s net profit per vehicle was 4,724 yuan, an increase of 37% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Performance - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 1.503 million units, with a target increase to 3 million units for the full year [1][2] - The sales of fuel vehicles grew to 684,000 units, while pure electric vehicle sales reached 511,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 173% [2] - The company’s export sales in the first half of 2025 were 184,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [1] Group 3: Product Development and Strategy - The company plans to enhance its product offerings by organizing into five major battle zones and customizing products by region [1] - The launch of multiple "9" series models aims to penetrate the high-end market, with the Lynk & Co 900 model showing promising sales [3] - The company’s upcoming models, including the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9, are expected to improve brand recognition in high-end intelligent driving solutions [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 15.96 billion yuan, 16.70 billion yuan, and 19.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating despite the competitive challenges it faces in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated strong performance in 1H25, with total revenue increasing by 26.5% year-on-year to 150.28 billion yuan, driven by rapid growth in vehicle sales and internal efficiency improvements [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 reached 150.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5% [1] - Gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13.9% to 9.29 billion yuan, while core net profit increased by 102% to 6.66 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Sales Growth - Total vehicle sales in 1H25 rose by 47.4% to 1.409 million units, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 126.5% to 725,000 units, accounting for 51.5% of total sales [1] - Specific brand performances included Galaxy sales up by 232%, Zeekr by 3%, and Lynk & Co by 22% [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 7.5% [1] - Sales expense ratio and administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points to 5.6% and 1.9%, respectively [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects sales growth to continue in 2H25 with new models like Galaxy A7, Galaxy M9, and Lynk & Co 10EM-P ramping up production [2] - The annual sales target has been raised by 11% to 3 million units, with 47% achieved in 1H25 [2] - Integration of Lynk & Co and Zeekr is expected to enhance internal resource optimization and efficiency [2] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "One Geely" strategy, with plans to complete the acquisition of Zeekr by the end of 2025 for approximately 2.4 billion USD [3] - Globalization efforts are underway, with a focus on expanding overseas markets despite a 7.7% decline in export sales in 1H25 [3] - The smart driving business has been integrated into a joint venture, which is expected to accelerate the production and iteration of smart driving solutions [3]

Group 1 - The company sold 236,000 vehicles in June, representing a year-over-year increase of 42.1% [1] - For the first half of the year, the company achieved total vehicle sales of 1.41 million, a year-over-year increase of 47.4% [2] - The company raised its annual sales target to 3 million vehicles, which is a 38% increase compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The company held a technology launch event for the Zeekr 9X on July 9, introducing the world's first full-stack 900V high-voltage hybrid architecture, SEA-S [1][3] - The Zeekr 9X is expected to start pre-sales at the end of August and is positioned as the brand's flagship hybrid model [3] - The Zeekr 9X features a maximum engine power of 205 kW and a thermal efficiency exceeding 46%, with a 20%-80% battery recharge time of only 9 minutes [3] Group 3 - The company expects to see significant profit growth, with net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 13.84 billion, 17.9 billion, and 22.3 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-over-year increases of 47%, 30%, and 24% [1][3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 8.6, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a recommendation to "buy" [1][3]

Group 1 - Chery Group's new energy vehicle sales in May reached 63,169 units, with iCAR brand sales at 5,899 units and Zhijie brand sales at 5,000 units [2][4][6] - Chery is expected to be the top exporter of Chinese automobiles by 2025, leveraging a diverse range of technologies including pure electric, hybrid, and hydrogen energy to compete in the market [4] - The new Geely Galaxy A7, a B-class plug-in hybrid sedan, was officially unveiled on June 3, featuring a wheelbase of 2,845mm and a comprehensive range of over 2,100 km [5][8] Group 2 - NIO reported its Q1 financial results with revenue of 12.03 billion yuan, a gross margin of 10.2%, and vehicle deliveries of 42,094 units, marking a year-on-year growth of over 40% [9][10] - The second quarter delivery guidance for NIO is set between 72,000 to 75,000 units, indicating a strong confidence in the brand's performance and upcoming models [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry is transitioning from a phase driven by policy subsidies and market incentives to a technology-driven phase focused on safety, marked by the implementation of the new battery safety standard GB38031-2025 in July 2026 [1][2] Policy Iteration - The increase in safety requirements is a response to the rise in EV fire incidents, which reached 640 in Q1 2024, a 32% year-on-year increase, with 90% linked to battery thermal runaway [2] - The new national standard shifts from a "5-minute escape time" to a "zero tolerance" approach, mandating that vehicles must not catch fire or explode within 2 hours after a thermal runaway event [4] Technological Changes - Key changes include upgrades in thermal runaway management, scenario-based safety testing, and occupant health protection [4] - Companies are adopting multi-layered protective technologies, such as CATL's NP technology, to enhance safety [4] - New testing scenarios include bottom impact tests and safety tests after 300 fast charging cycles, with companies like Dongfeng demonstrating superior protective capabilities [4] Technical Pathways - The rise in safety standards is fostering competition and integration of diverse technological routes [5] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries are gaining prominence due to their higher safety, while ternary lithium batteries are seeking breakthroughs through design optimizations [5] - Solid-state batteries are viewed as a long-term direction due to their non-flammable electrolytes [5] Industry Dynamics - Compliance with new safety standards is expected to increase battery system costs by 15%-20%, potentially leading to price hikes or market exits for low-end models [6] - Despite cost pressures, companies are committed to maintaining safety standards and will be cautious in adopting unverified technologies [6] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with 30% of production capacity affected by 2027, benefiting leading companies [6] Market Reconstruction - The new standards are expected to create significant demand in the testing and certification sector, with single test costs exceeding 2 million yuan [8] - Improved safety will likely lead to lower insurance premiums for compliant vehicles, with potential reductions of 15%-20% [8] - Consumer perception is shifting, with safety becoming a primary consideration in vehicle purchases, as 78% of companies have developed "non-flammable" technologies, although less than 40% fully meet all standards [8]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile reported strong Q1 2025 results with revenue of 72.495 billion yuan, a 25% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 264% year-on-year, driven by record sales and robust growth in the new energy vehicle segment [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Geely's revenue reached 72.495 billion yuan, marking a 25% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.67 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 264% [1] - The company achieved a sales volume of 704,000 vehicles, a 47.9% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 135.4% [1][3] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 15.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 11.5% [2] - The sales, administrative, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 5.0%, 1.9%, 4.6%, and -0.04% respectively, with notable improvements in sales and administrative expenses [2] Product Development and Sales Outlook - Geely plans to launch 10 new models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix with strong sales potential from models like Galaxy E5 and Zeekr 7X [3] - The company has already achieved a monthly average sales volume of 235,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory that may exceed the annual sales target of 2.71 million vehicles [3] Investment Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 326.904 billion yuan, 392.285 billion yuan, and 470.742 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 36.1%, 20.0%, and 20.0% [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 14.936 billion yuan, 18.612 billion yuan, and 23.037 billion yuan, with growth rates of -10.2%, 24.6%, and 23.8% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global electric vehicle (EV) industry is entering a highly competitive phase in 2025, with companies like Tesla and BYD leading the charge, while Zeekr Technology showcases impressive financial results, marking a significant milestone in China's EV sector's high-end and global expansion [1][14]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Zeekr Technology reported total revenue of 22 billion yuan (approximately 3.04 billion USD), with vehicle sales revenue dominating at 19.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [3]. - The company achieved a gross profit of 4.213 billion yuan (about 580 million USD), up 18.8% from the previous year, and a comprehensive gross margin of 19.1%, the highest in its history [3][4]. - Zeekr's net loss decreased by over 60% year-on-year, achieving a profit of 510 million yuan under Hong Kong accounting standards, marking three consecutive quarters of profitability [3][4]. Cost Management and Efficiency - Total costs for Q1 2025 were 17.8 billion yuan (approximately 2.54 billion USD), down 2.4% year-on-year and 38.6% from the previous quarter [4]. - Sales and marketing expenses were 2.645 billion yuan (around 364 million USD), a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year [4]. - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co has led to significant cost reductions and improved operational efficiency [4][6]. Strategic Developments - The merger of Zeekr with Lynk & Co and its planned integration into Geely Auto is a strategic move aimed at enhancing market competitiveness and operational synergy [6][7]. - Zeekr and Lynk & Co are adopting differentiated competition strategies, with Zeekr focusing on the luxury market above 300,000 yuan and Lynk & Co targeting the market above 200,000 yuan [8]. Global Expansion - As of April 2025, Zeekr has entered over 60 international markets and established more than 1,200 stores, gaining the trust of over 1.9 million global users [11]. - Geely Auto is also expanding its overseas presence, with plans to launch multiple models in key markets like the Middle East and Europe [11][12]. Technological Advancements - Zeekr is innovating with its "three 800" ecosystem solution, including the V4 ultra-fast charging station capable of delivering peak power of 1.3 megawatts [9]. - The company is also enhancing its technology capabilities through shared R&D efforts between Zeekr and Lynk & Co, focusing on intelligent driving solutions and smart cockpit technologies [8][9]. Conclusion - Zeekr's Q1 2025 financial performance reflects the effectiveness of its "technology-driven high-end" strategy, showcasing growth in both scale and profitability while breaking the trend of "burning cash for volume" typical of new entrants in the EV market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q1 2025, driven by improved sales structure, internal efficiency gains, and foreign exchange benefits [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 72.495 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.5% and a quarter-on-quarter stability [2]. - Gross margin improved by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but decreased by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 15.8% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 263.6% year-on-year and 58.5% quarter-on-quarter, amounting to 5.672 billion [2]. Group 2: Sales and Product Structure - Total sales volume increased by 47.9% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter to 704,000 units, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 135.4% year-on-year [3]. - The share of new energy vehicles in total sales increased by 17.9 percentage points year-on-year to 48.2% [3]. - Key models such as Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co saw significant sales growth, with Galaxy sales up 214% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Cost Management and Efficiency - The SG&A expense ratio decreased by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year to 7.0%, with sales and administrative expense ratios also declining [3]. - The company is optimizing resource allocation through the integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands, aiming to enhance its mid-to-high-end market presence [3]. Group 4: Strategic Moves and Future Outlook - The company announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, aiming for better resource integration and efficiency [4]. - The integration is expected to enhance overall group efficiency by over 5%, with improvements in R&D, management, and marketing efficiencies projected to reach 15%-20% [4]. - The launch of new models in Q2 2025 is anticipated to further boost sales and performance, with early indicators showing strong order volumes for new vehicles [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a 54% year-over-year increase in March automobile sales, selling 232,000 vehicles, which outperformed its peers. Cumulatively, from January to March, the company sold 704,000 vehicles, a 48% increase year-over-year. Electric vehicles accounted for 339,000 units sold, representing 48.2% of total sales, marking an 18.2 percentage point increase from the previous year [7][9]. - The company is accelerating its electrification transformation, with competitive products across various price segments. The integration of its brands is expected to reduce costs, and the company has a technological edge that may contribute to future profit growth. The impact of U.S. tariffs on the company is expected to be minimal as its products have not yet entered the U.S. market [7][9]. - The company anticipates significant improvements in its 2024 performance, with projected revenues of 240.2 billion RMB, a 34% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 16.6 billion RMB, a 213% increase. The sales target for 2025 is set at 2.71 million vehicles, a 24.5% increase, with electric vehicle sales expected to reach 1.5 million units, a 69% increase [9][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current H-share price of HKD 13.42 and a market capitalization of 135.24 billion RMB. The stock has seen a 12-month high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [2][3]. Recent Performance - The company reported a significant increase in sales, with March sales showing a 54% year-over-year growth. The sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are gaining traction, contributing to the overall sales growth [7][9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 13.2 billion RMB, 17.5 billion RMB, and 21.8 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 44%, 32%, and 24.5% [9][11].