未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 为什么在2020年整车行情出现向上拐点？ 2020年起虽有疫情干扰，但指数开始向上，主要原因为行业销量同比转正；新能源渗透 率开始出现实质性的拐点，且本轮新能源浪潮带动自主品牌份额显著提升，自主整车车企分得 更多行业蛋糕。 n新能源渗透率出现核心拐点的原因主要为：特斯拉国产化后带来产业趋势 强化，Model 3迅速爬坡上量成为爆款。产业链经济性的改善带来供给端百花齐放。 几次整车指数见底向上分别发生了什么？ 21年5月：电动化逻辑仍很强势（渗透率约为10%），终端需求未减弱，缺芯阶段性缓解。 行 业缺芯问题从2021年初开始全面爆发，指数对应下跌。21年5月开始市场普遍预期7-8月供应问 题将逐步缓解（预计马来西亚芯片工厂8月将复工等），股价提前反应行业基本面改善的前 景。 22年5月：电动化逻辑较强势（渗透率约为25%），封控区复工复产，购置税补贴政策落地， 电池成本高位震荡。 22Q1上海等地由于疫情影响长三角地区供应链体系也受到较大影响，同 时电池成本飙升，指数快速调整。22年5月国常会宣布阶段性减征乘用车购置税 600 亿元，对 30 万元以下、2.0L 及以下 ...

公司电动化转型正在加速，高性价比产品策略取得成效，在各个主流价格区间都有市场认可的产品。公 司汽车业务整合后有望降低采购成本、共享技术，产品整体竞争力有望提升。2026 年汽车补贴延续， 汽车市场有望维持景气度，公司销量增长可期。根据公司11 月18 日公告，公司完成对极氪的私有化 后，将进行股份回购，总金额不超过23 亿港元，预计对股价有提振作用。我们预计公司2025/2026/2027 年净利润分别至170.6/218.5/281.8 亿元，扣除一次性收益的影响， YOY 分别为+80%/+28%/+29% ， EPS 分别为1.59/2.04/2.62 元。当前股价对应P/E 分别为9.6/7.5/5.8 倍，建议"买进"。 机构：群益证券(香港) 研究员：沈嘉婕 结论与建议： 12 月22 日，公司发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退市。公司通过发行股份（占70.8%）和 支付现金（占29.2%）完成此项交易。合并后公司汽车业务在研发、营销、采购等方面将进一步整合， 运营效率有望提升。 极氪完成私有化，运营效率有望提升：12 月22 日，公司发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退 市，极氪将成为 ...

群益证券主要观点如下： 公司电动化转型正在加速，高性价比产品策略取得成效，在各个主流价格区间都有市场认可的产品 公司汽车业务整合后有望降低采购成本、共享技术，产品整体竞争力有望提升。2026年汽车补贴延续， 汽车市场有望维持景气度，公司销量增长可期。根据公司11月18日公告，公司完成对极氪的私有化后， 将进行股份回购，总金额不超过23亿港元，预计对股价有提振作用。该行预计公司2025/2026/2027年净 利润分别至170.6/218.5/281.8亿元，扣除一次性收益的影响，YOY分别为+80%/+28%/+29%，EPS分别为 1.59/2.04/2.62元。当前股价对应P/E分别为9.6/7.5/5.8倍，建议"买进"。 群益证券发布研报称，12月22日，吉利汽车(00175)发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退市。 公司通过发行股份(占70.8%)和支付现金(占29.2%)完成此项交易。合并后公司汽车业务在研发、营销、 采购等方面将进一步整合，运营效率有望提升。建议买进。 公司电动化加速，2026年产品矩阵将进一步完善 2025年公司电动化进程加速，1-11月公司累计销售汽车278.78万辆，Y ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has completed the privatization of Zeekr and will delist from the New York Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance operational efficiency through integration of its automotive business [1][3] Group 1: Privatization and Integration - The privatization of Zeekr was completed on December 22, with approximately 70.8% of shareholders opting for stock exchange and 29.2% for cash compensation, resulting in a cash payment of $701 million [1][3] - Following the merger, the company expects to reduce R&D investment by 10% to 20%, lower BOM costs by 5% to 8%, and improve capacity utilization by 3% to 5% [3] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Strategy - The company is accelerating its electrification process, with total vehicle sales reaching 2.7878 million units from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.5335 million units, up 97% [4] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2026, including three SUVs and two sedans under the Galaxy brand, and aims to strengthen its export of new energy vehicles, expecting a 50% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 17.06 billion, 21.85 billion, and 28.18 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 80%, 28%, and 29% [2][5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.6, 7.5, and 5.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a recommendation to "buy" [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth and improved core net profit, indicating a positive outlook for future quarters [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's total revenue increased by 26.5% year-on-year to 239.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 16.5%, up by 0.3 percentage points [4]. - For Q3 2025, total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.8% year-on-year to 13.11 billion yuan, while the core net profit rose by 59% to 10.62 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Sales and Market Share - The company's total sales volume in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 45.7% year-on-year to 2.17 million units, with new energy vehicle sales accounting for 53.8% of total sales, up by 17.2 percentage points [5]. - In Q3 2025, total sales volume was 761,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9% [5]. - The company’s market share reached 10.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong sales of the Galaxy series [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The privatization of Zeekr is progressing smoothly, with the merger with Geely expected to be completed by the end of 2025, which aligns with the company's strategy to optimize resources and enhance efficiency [6]. - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with plans to exceed 1,000 overseas sales networks by 2026 and aims for export sales to reach one million units by 2027 [6]. - The company is focusing on high-end intelligent vehicles, with the Zeekr 9X featuring advanced driving capabilities, and 80% of pre-sale orders coming from customers of luxury brands [6].

Core Insights - Geely has launched the Geely International EX5 in London, marking a significant step in its European strategy and global ambitions as a Chinese automotive company [1][2] - The EX5 is a pure electric SUV that has already been successful in 33 countries, achieving top sales in several markets [1] - Geely aims to sell over 100,000 vehicles annually in the UK by 2030, supported by a plan to expand its dealership network from 25 to 100 locations by 2026 [2] Group 1: Market Strategy - Geely's entry into the UK market is part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on the highly competitive Chinese market and tap into higher profit margins in Europe [3] - The average selling price (ASP) and profit per vehicle in Europe are significantly higher than in China, with overseas models potentially yielding three times the profit of domestic sales [3] - Geely plans to introduce multiple electric models in Europe over the next five years, aiming to establish a robust sales and service network [2][3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Geely faces competition not only from established European brands like Volkswagen and Renault but also from other Chinese automakers such as BYD and SAIC [4] - The company is adopting a traditional dealership model to quickly establish its presence while minimizing initial capital expenditure [4] - Geely's existing investments and research facilities in the UK provide a foundation for its operations, indicating that it is not starting from scratch in the European market [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The launch of the EX5 is seen as a test of Geely's capabilities in a mature and competitive market, emphasizing the need for deep localization in supply chains and talent acquisition [5] - The success of Chinese automakers in Europe will depend on their ability to navigate high barriers to entry and intense competition [5]

Core Viewpoint - Geely is accelerating its expansion into the European electric vehicle market, revealing a five-year development plan aimed at establishing a strong presence in the UK and broader Europe [2][4]. Group 1: Market Entry and Strategy - Geely's international EX5 is the first pure electric model launched in the UK, marking a significant milestone in its European strategy [4][5]. - The company aims to achieve annual sales of 100,000 units in the UK by 2030, positioning the UK as a core strategic market in Europe [5][7]. - Geely plans to increase its sales outlets in the UK from 25 to 40 by the end of 2025, and to 100 by the end of 2026, ensuring comprehensive coverage [7][9]. Group 2: Market Growth and Performance - The UK has become the largest market for new energy vehicles in Europe, with pure electric vehicle sales increasing by 34.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [6][9]. - Since 2025, several leading domestic automakers have seen significant increases in their new energy vehicle sales in the UK [6]. Group 3: Future Product Plans - Geely plans to launch 15 new models in Europe over the next five years, aiming to establish over 1,000 sales outlets and become a mainstream automotive brand in the region [9][10]. - The Geely Galaxy brand models are expected to be updated in other major European markets by 2026, with new models like Galaxy Star Wish and Starship 7 set to enter the market [11]. Group 4: Technological and Environmental Focus - Geely emphasizes the importance of technology, quality, and sustainability in the European market, aiming to produce intelligent and sustainable vehicles [12][14]. - The company has invested over 250 billion yuan in R&D over the past 11 years, achieving significant advancements in core technologies [14][15]. - Geely has set a goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, with a 23.5% reduction in carbon emissions per vehicle by mid-2025 [15].

Core Insights - Geely's first global electric vehicle, the Geely International EX5, was launched in the UK on October 23 [1] - Geely's CEO, Gan Jiayue, stated that the Lynk & Co brand will collaborate with the Volvo dealer network to accelerate retail market expansion in Europe [1] - The Galaxy brand models are set to be updated in other major European markets by 2026, with future models like the Galaxy Xingyuan and Xingjian 7 planned for the European market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue growth and a notable increase in core net profit, despite challenges in net profit due to foreign exchange losses and other factors [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 150.28 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, marking a historical high [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion RMB, down 13.9% year-on-year; however, core net profit, excluding foreign exchange gains and other one-time items, was 6.66 billion RMB, up 102% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 alone, the company achieved revenue of 77.79 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 28.4% and 7.3%, respectively [1]. - The overall gross margin slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4%, attributed to the increased sales of economical new energy vehicles and intensified industry price competition [1][2]. Cost Management - Selling and administrative expense ratios decreased by 1.0 and 0.7 percentage points to 5.6% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating effective scale effects and channel integration [2]. - R&D investment decreased by 8.6% to 8.35 billion RMB, primarily focused on new energy and intelligent technology, with an R&D expense ratio down by 1.1 percentage points to 6.6% [2]. - Despite a decrease in average selling price by 14,000 RMB to 96,000 RMB, the core net profit per vehicle increased by 37% to 4,724 RMB [2]. Sales Performance - Total sales volume reached 1.409 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, significantly outpacing the domestic passenger vehicle industry's growth of 13% [2]. - New energy vehicle sales surged to 725,000 units, up 126.5%, accounting for 51.5% of total sales [2]. - The company has raised its sales target for the year to 3 million vehicles, increasing the growth rate forecast from 25% to 38% [2]. International Expansion - The company exported 184,000 vehicles, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, primarily due to challenges in the Eastern European market; however, new energy vehicle exports increased by 146% to 40,000 units [3]. - Geely has established five overseas regions to accelerate its international strategy, focusing on organizational structure, resource allocation, after-sales service, and product planning [3]. Strategic Moves - Geely announced plans to privatize Zeekr (ZK.N), making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, which is part of its strategy to streamline operations and enhance synergies among its brands [3][4]. - The company plans to launch 10 new models in 2025, with positive market feedback for recently launched models indicating strong potential for future sales [4]. Investment Outlook - Based on the latest financial data and projections, the company has adjusted its EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.537, 1.852, and 2.320 RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 24.3 HKD, corresponding to projected P/E ratios of 14.4, 12, and 9.6 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed financial outlook for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1] - The company’s average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 95,500 yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 16.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company’s net profit per vehicle was 4,724 yuan, an increase of 37% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Performance - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 1.503 million units, with a target increase to 3 million units for the full year [1][2] - The sales of fuel vehicles grew to 684,000 units, while pure electric vehicle sales reached 511,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 173% [2] - The company’s export sales in the first half of 2025 were 184,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [1] Group 3: Product Development and Strategy - The company plans to enhance its product offerings by organizing into five major battle zones and customizing products by region [1] - The launch of multiple "9" series models aims to penetrate the high-end market, with the Lynk & Co 900 model showing promising sales [3] - The company’s upcoming models, including the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9, are expected to improve brand recognition in high-end intelligent driving solutions [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 15.96 billion yuan, 16.70 billion yuan, and 19.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating despite the competitive challenges it faces in the market [4]