宏观专题 稳中有进态势持续——10 月经济数据解读 2025 年 12 月 18 日 【宏观观点】 10 月国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，尽管供需层面有所降 温，但仍存在结构性亮点。 【风险提示】 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：杨雅婷 证书编号：S1160525100004 联系人：李沅芷 相关研究 《黄金如何定价？——三轮黄金上涨周期 复盘》 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 2025.11.17 《美债的远虑与近忧》 2025.11.16 《"十五五"时期政策主线展望——"十五 五"系列报告二》 2025.10.17 《美联储降息期，资产谁涨谁跌？》 2025.10.13 《新发展阶段宏观环境的变化——"十五 五"系列报告一》 2025.09.22 观 研 究 / 宏 观 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 "两新"带动效应减弱，服务类消费保持增长。10 月受中秋国庆假期、 "电商节"带动，服务类消费表现亮眼。但是，"两新"产品销量减少， 主要是去年高基数和今年补贴减少双重影响，政策的带动效应有所减 弱。展望后续，消费动能仍需政策呵护。 固定资 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，梁山卡途商贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为张德琦，注册资本1万人民币，经 营范围为一般项目：金属材料销售；高品质特种钢铁材料销售；轮胎销售；弹簧销售；弹簧制造；汽车 零配件批发；汽车零配件零售；摩托车零配件制造；木材销售；木材收购；木材加工；汽车轮毂制造； 汽车销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：道路机动车辆 生产。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文 件或许可证件为准）。 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2051 字，阅读全文约 7 分钟 2 2025年1-10月服务贸易发展情况 2025年1-10月服务贸易发展情况 前10月完成交通固定资产投资2.95万亿元 2025年11月中国采购经理指数运行情况 2025年1-10月，我国服务贸易稳步增长，服务进出口总额65844.3亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长 7.5%。 其中，出口29090.3亿元，增长14.3%；进口36754亿元，增长2.6% ；服务贸易逆差7663.7亿元，同比减 少2693.9亿元。主要呈现以下特点： 知识密集型服务贸易保持增长。1-10月，知识密集型服务进出口25121.5亿元，增长6.4%。其中，其他商 业服务、电信计算机和信息服务进出口10698.1亿元、8836.9亿元，增速分别为4.2%、9.9%。知识密集型服务 出口14687.9亿元，增长9.5%；知识密集型服务进口10433.6亿元，增长2.3%；顺差4254.3亿元，比上年同期扩 大1036亿元。 旅行服务出口高速增长。1-10月，旅行服务增长较快，进出口达18125.4亿元，增长8.5%。其中，出口增 长52.5%，进口增长2 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new company, Xuanwei Zhuoshun Trading Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 1.2 million RMB, focusing on various trading and service activities in the coal and non-metallic mineral sectors [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of the company is Zhao Guoping [1] - The registered capital of the company is 1.2 million RMB [1] - The company’s business scope includes coal and its products sales, coal washing, sales of non-metallic minerals and products, and sales of metal products [1] - Additional activities include sales of construction materials, light construction materials, and internet sales (excluding licensed goods) [1] - The company also engages in machinery and packaging materials sales, labor services (excluding labor dispatch), and engineering management services [1] - It offers services related to agricultural products, including production, sales, processing, transportation, and storage [1] - The company provides technical services, development, consulting, and technology transfer [1] - It is involved in the rental of construction machinery and equipment, as well as the sale of automobiles and new energy vehicles [1] - The company also offers small passenger vehicle rental services [1]

Core Insights - The consumer willingness index in China for Q2 2025 is 120.2, indicating a slight decline from the previous quarter and a year-on-year decrease of 7.1 points, suggesting a stabilization phase in consumer sentiment [1][8][10]. Consumer Willingness Index Comparison - The willingness index shows significant regional and demographic disparities, with the Northeast region scoring the highest at 127.4, while the Western region is the lowest at 111.5 [17][19]. - Urban consumers have a higher index (122.2) compared to rural consumers (109.4), with first-tier cities outperforming lower-tier cities [19][21]. - High-income consumers have an index of 140.0, significantly higher than middle-income (120.9) and low-income (111.3) groups, indicating a widening gap in consumer sentiment [21][28]. Consumer Satisfaction and Economic Outlook - Over half of consumers (55.5%) perceive prices as "high," despite a slight decrease in CPI, reflecting a persistent expectation for price reductions [2][49]. - Consumer satisfaction regarding current economic conditions is slightly declining, with 30.5% rating it as "good" and a satisfaction index of 114.1 [30][32]. - Expectations for future economic conditions are also low, with only 44.5% believing their situation will improve in a year, marking the lowest level since the survey began [34][38]. Spending Behavior and Future Intentions - Consumers are primarily saving (51.8%) and investing in children's education (45.3%), with a notable increase in savings intentions [2][11]. - There is a strong demand for home appliances, clothing, and travel in the next six months, with the "trade-in" policy showing effectiveness but facing limitations [11][12]. - The automotive sector is seeing a rebound in consumer intent, particularly for mid-range vehicles priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, although the growth in new energy vehicle adoption is slowing [12][48]. Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include enhancing social security, stabilizing growth and employment, reducing educational burdens, and issuing consumption vouchers to boost consumer confidence [2][14]. - Emphasis on improving the quality of products and services is crucial for encouraging consumer spending [11][48].

Core Insights - Shanghai's consumer market shows signs of recovery and increased vitality, with a 4.3% year-on-year growth in social retail sales in the first three quarters of 2025, ranking first among five international consumption centers despite being slightly below the national average of 4.5% [3][4] Group 1: Policy Impact - The implementation of the "2025 Consumption Expansion Action Plan" has led to increased consumption subsidies, particularly in major consumption areas, generating nearly 110 billion yuan in consumption through "trade-in" policies for appliances, furniture, and automobiles [3] - The "Le Shanghai" consumption vouchers have effectively stimulated consumer enthusiasm across various sectors, including dining, retail, and tourism, while also promoting supply-side innovation to enhance consumption scenarios [3] Group 2: Local Consumption Trends - The stabilization of the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above 3,800 points, has positively influenced local consumption, supported by a 4.3% increase in per capita disposable income [4] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences from basic needs to quality demands, with significant year-on-year retail growth in sports and entertainment goods (27.7%), furniture (22.1%), and home appliances (28.2%) [4] Group 3: Tourism and External Consumption - The relaxation of visa policies has led to a 37% year-on-year increase in inbound tourism, significantly boosting related sectors such as culture, tourism, and retail [5] - Events like the "Shanghai Summer" and "Tourism Festival" have further enhanced the synergy between inbound and local consumption, contributing to substantial economic growth [5] Group 4: Growth Dynamics - The low base effect from the previous year, when the consumer market was in recovery, has accentuated the growth trend observed in 2025, characterized by a dual pathway of recovery and structural upgrade in the consumption market [6]

Core Insights - A new company, Nuoan Ouder (Baoding) Trading Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 50,000 RMB and is represented by Malik Usman [1] Company Overview - The company operates in various sectors including sales of machinery and equipment, sales of mechanical parts and components, processing of mechanical parts, sales of electronic products, automobile sales, and sales of construction machinery [1] - Additional activities include retail of auto parts, second-hand car brokerage, import and export of goods, and technology import and export [1] - The company is allowed to conduct business activities independently based on its business license, except for projects that require government approval [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth, marking a 9 percentage point increase from the previous year [1] - The growth in consumer market size is attributed to effective consumption-boosting policies, including the issuance of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods [1] - The "old for new" policy has led to significant growth in retail sales of household appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment, with over 8.3 million applications for vehicle replacements by September 10 [1] Group 2 - Service retail sales grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points, driven by policies aimed at expanding service consumption [2] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8% year-on-year, with a consistent acceleration in growth since May, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [2] - Despite the growth in retail sales, the increase in consumer goods retail sales was lower than the overall economic growth, suggesting a need to enhance consumer willingness to spend [2] Group 3 - Future strategies should focus on stabilizing and expanding employment, promoting sustained income growth, and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [3] - There is a call for more systematic and comprehensive measures to stimulate domestic demand and release consumption potential, emphasizing the importance of confidence in economic stability [3] - The overall economic performance has exceeded expectations this year, highlighting the need for correct guidance of expectations among businesses and consumers to further boost consumption [3]

Economic Development - Sichuan's total economic output has surpassed 6 trillion yuan, ranking 5th in the country, achieving a historic milestone [1] - The per capita GDP of Sichuan has exceeded 10,000 USD, indicating a significant improvement in economic strength [2] - The contribution rate of the service industry to economic growth has exceeded 60%, with strategic emerging industries accounting for 30% of the industrial output [2] - Sichuan's import and export total has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, ranking first in Central and Western China, enhancing its international competitiveness [2] Social Development - The average annual growth rate of per capita disposable income in Sichuan is 6.7%, outpacing economic growth by 1 percentage point [3] - Over 5 million new urban jobs have been created, and the basic medical insurance coverage rate has exceeded 95% [3] Regional Cooperation - The economic output of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has grown from 6.3 trillion yuan to 8.7 trillion yuan, demonstrating its significant role in supporting high-quality development in the West and nationwide [4] - The railway operating mileage between Sichuan and Chongqing has increased by 28%, with a total of 26 transportation routes established [4] - The two regions have built the largest OLED production base globally and the third-largest automobile industry cluster in China [4] Transportation Infrastructure - Sichuan's transportation infrastructure investment has reached 1.7 trillion yuan, supporting high-quality economic development [6] - The total length of the transportation network in Sichuan has reached 443,000 kilometers, with new mileage sufficient to circle the equator nearly once [6] - The number of charging stations for electric vehicles has reached nearly 14,000, with charging facilities installed at all highway service areas [6]

Economic Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, Sichuan's industrial added value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 1 percentage point [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,876.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, also exceeding the national average by 1.1 percentage points [3] Industry Growth - Out of 41 major industries, 35 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in the automotive manufacturing sector (19.1%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (15.2%), and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (14.3%) [3] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector grew by 13.2%, while the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry saw an increase of 11.6% [3] Industrial Product Output - Natural gas production increased by 12.1%, while electricity generation saw a slight decline of 0.6% [4] - Lithium-ion battery production surged by 54.1%, and industrial robots saw a growth of 51.8% [4] - Other significant increases included generator sets (41.6%), automotive production (35.5%), industrial boilers (26.7%), and liquid crystal display screens (24.8%) [4] Consumer Market Insights - The product sales rate for industrial enterprises was 95.0% [5] - In the consumer market, dining revenue reached 257.02 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%, while retail sales of goods totaled 1,619.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [5] - Online retail sales through key enterprises reached 144.55 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 25.9% [5] Investment Trends - Private investment in Sichuan increased by 1.7% in the first eight months, driven by improved business environments and initiatives to promote private capital participation in major projects [5]