Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares is expected to rise from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a more favorable profitability trend [1] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on four main lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a particular emphasis on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the characteristics of "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth are observed, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, and the recovery of trade settlement rates along with visa-free entry for foreign tourists has led to improved sales net profit margins in sectors such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - The financial landscape shows a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage are expected to resonate with the non-bank sector and the recovery of ROE [2]

来源：国金证券股份有限公司 波动中的定价 过去一段时间，市场呈现的运行状态是：全球风险资产在低波环境中维持震荡上行，而商品侧则在价格 上行的同时伴随波动率抬升。权益市场来看，2026 年首个交易日全球主要股指迎来开门红，港股市场 表现尤为亮眼，涨幅在全球主要股指中较为领先。港股的走强更偏向于美元流动性外溢下对前期"滞 涨"的补涨，同时产业层面的催化进一步推升股价。商品市场来看，本周资产价格出现高位波动，短期 交易行为占据了主导，同时也暴露出低库存环境下的脆弱性。 长期视角看：当前工业金属货值/美国金融资产和广义货币来处在20 年的低位，实物资产长期处于被低 估状态，库存意愿不断下降。展望未来，当需求侧遭遇产业变迁带来的需求结构冲击，而供给侧遇到了 贸易政策变化，此时低库存叠加货币宽松周期使其更易吸纳金融资本并放大资产价格的波动。中期视角 下，AI 投资和全球制造业周期修复仍构成了大宗商品行情的重要驱动。值得一提的是，近期部分未受 上述交易因素影响品种的行情已开始体现基本面定价的逻辑。更优的投资策略是中长期维持做多思路， 热门品种波动率回落后将迎来布局机会。 基本面：扩内需政策与出口韧性继续形成共振 从最新的制 ...

光伏：供给侧改革取得实质性进展，短期需求承压不改多元化增长态势2025年是光伏行业的基本面筑底 之年，供需错配压力出现边际改善，产业链价格企稳回升，公司业绩亏损幅度收敛。展望2026年：需求 端方面，全球光伏新增装机将面临短期压力，中美欧光伏新增市场均有同比下滑压力，新型市场增速较 高但占比仍小，预计全球光伏新增规模持平或略有下滑。随着全球光储平价地区持续增加，中欧美以外 地区光伏装机需求快速启动，全球新增装机GW级以上国家持续增加，其中中东、南亚、非洲地区增速 靠前，多元化增长格局持续演绎；供给端方面，整治"内卷式"竞争工作取得实质性进展，行业新规提高 光伏产能扩产门槛，光伏产品价格基本触底，行业尾部企业逐渐退出，预计2025年行业供需错配情况将 逐渐改善。新技术方面，BC电池技术产业化进展加速，降银新技术将推动非硅成本进一步下降。 风电：招标端高景气向装机端传导，产业链出海持续推进 诚通证券近日发布2026年风光储网行业投资策略：全球储能装机需求保持高增长，AI算力中心配储带 来新增需求2025年全球储能呈现爆发增长态势，中美欧大储需求共振。展望2026年：与电网投资相同， 储能行业是新能源的后周期行业， ...

智通财经APP获悉，对能源转型的支持者而言，2025年的挑战可谓接踵而至：美国清洁能源政策大幅倒退、欧洲风电遭遇"无风 季"、企业风电投资收缩、煤电产能强势反弹。但这一年同样孕育着希望——全球电池储能装机创历史新高、数十个国家太阳能发 电占比突破纪录、主要汽车市场电动车销量持续攀升。 下文将通过八张图表，梳理2025年影响全球能源转型进程的关键里程碑与发展动态，并列出2026年及未来需要重点关注的核心数 据指标。 中国领跑清洁能源赛道 中国持续领跑全球清洁能源发展，在核电、光伏、风电及生物质能装机规模上稳居世界首位。清洁电力生产即将实现连续第七年 强劲增长，能源智库Ember数据显示，2025年前11个月中国清洁发电量同比增长15.4%。 2025年，清洁能源发电量占全国电网供电总量的比例将首次突破40%，而化石能源发电占比则降至历史最低点。 尽管化石能源仍是中国电力系统的核心支柱，但自2019年以来，清洁能源发电量的增速已达到化石能源发电量增速的四倍以上。 未来十余年，随着中国持续扩张光伏、风电、核电及储能装机规模，清洁能源在全国发电结构中的占比有望进一步提升。 中国清洁技术出海同样势不可挡。根据Ember ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across various manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, particularly in industrial resource products such as copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the bottom of the cycle, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] - Identify domestic manufacturing sectors that are showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Capture the recovery in consumption driven by inbound tourism and rising household income, focusing on sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financial sectors such as insurance and brokerage [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that among 360 industry/theme ETFs, 39 reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus is on structural opportunities in a volatile market, with sectors like chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy being prioritized due to their long-term ROE potential, alongside emerging themes like commercial aerospace [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of the RMB appreciation trend and its implications for investment strategies, particularly in brokerage and insurance sectors [3] Group 2 - The article discusses favorable conditions for the spring market rally, driven by liquidity and investor expectations, with a focus on the A500 ETF and potential market fluctuations at year-end and early next year [4] - It notes that the RMB's recent strength, driven by corporate settlement demand and a favorable external environment, could lead to a capital market rally, benefiting sectors reliant on imported materials and those with significant foreign currency liabilities [6] - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and manufacturing sectors, particularly in AI and global manufacturing recovery, recommending investments in industrial resources and equipment exports [8] Group 3 - The article indicates that the A-share market has entered a cross-year rally phase, supported by optimistic institutional investor sentiment and favorable policy expectations [9] - It suggests that the spring market is likely to exhibit structural characteristics with rapid sector rotation, encouraging investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [13][14] - The article highlights the potential for a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on technology themes and non-bank financial sectors [15]

如何理解近期各产业链涨价：实物消耗的扩散与汇聚 当下涨价链成为市场焦点，通过梳理各行业涨价函具体内容与业内分析可以看到，原材料价格的上涨成 为价格主要推升因素；与此同时，反内卷政策的效果也正在显现，在面临上游涨价，下游压价的困境 时，部分企业开始选择自发减产与联合提价的方式维护产业合理竞争秩序。往后看由于需求端的景气程 度差异，涨价的持续性也有所不同。对于大宗商品而言，我们认为凌厉的上涨可能有两层原因：本轮有 色金属的上涨，可能在指示边际需求更多由大量高毛利与成长性的新兴部门所驱动，占后者的成本比重 偏小，对价格上涨的接受与容忍度相对而言更高，交易区间会拉长；过往产业+金融是实物库存的实际 空头，当面对需求、政策和交易结构变化时，呈现脆弱性。 往后全球来看，海外降息周期驱动下，制造业修复下投资强于消费的格局有望延续，而由于投资——就 业传导将在AI发展下反而受阻，导致服务通胀上升缓慢，延缓通胀带来的利率约束的到来；而映射到 国内股票市场，当下金属与AI投资的关系更像是2021年煤炭/火电与新能源的关系，同样受到新能源发 展的宏观背景的影响，但股价却在2021年后出现了背离，其实是对业绩一阶导与二阶导表现的差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, characterized by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across manufacturing sectors and extended trading ranges for bulk commodities, with China's manufacturing advantages becoming more evident and reflected in the foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and industrial resource products that resonate with the global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the cycle bottom, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles, as well as domestic manufacturing sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] - Capture the recovery in inbound tourism and the increase in residents' income, leading to a rebound in consumption in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns in non-bank sectors, including insurance and brokerage firms [1]

2025年，A股在政策、估值、盈利、资金四重支撑下走出了牛市行情。2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之 年，经济转型深化与政策发力预期叠加，但A股市场细分赛道的分化却愈发明显，在这样的背景下， 2026年的投资机会如何？驱动2026年行情的核心变量是什么？哪些领域可能成为市场资金新的"共识"？ 对于这些问题，私募大佬们又有着怎样独到的判断？近日，《每日经济新闻》记者(以下简称NBD)就带 着这些问题，专访了上海保银私募基金管理有限公司总经理及基金经理李墨(以下简称保银基金李墨)。 首先，2025年为市场确立了坚实的"政策底"与"资金底"。政策上，从2024年9月首提"适度宽松"到2025 年12月会议的再次定调，表明宽松已不再是权宜之计，而是构建长效机制的宏观基准，这为长期风险偏 好提供了"定海神针"。资金上，数据已验证了信心的实质性回归："长钱"考核机制优化下，险资全年预 计贡献超4000亿元增量；北上资金三季度持仓市值创下2.59万亿元新高；叠加全年日均成交额重回1.1万 亿元上方，市场的承接力与定价效率已显著跃升。 然而，行情的持续性面临"结构性分化"的挑战。虽然以硬科技为代表的新质生产力板块在三季度率先 ...

思源电气：公司是具备向欧美市场出口的优秀电网设备供应商，在海外市场电力设备紧缺的背景下，公 司拥有较强的渠道和技术优势，有望持续受益海外市场的爆发需求。 神马电力：公司在美国建厂， 能够快速响应北美电网客户需求，减少其对供应链安全的担忧； 通过在 美国本土化打造具备快交付、 高质量、 经济、可靠的复合外绝缘产品， 将进一步扩大北美市场占有率 并提升全球竞争力， 从而充分把握全球能源转型背景下， 北美市场电网升级换代的历史机遇。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 据美国太平洋天然气和电力公司网站消息，加利福尼亚州旧金山市20日发生大规模停电事故,影响约13 万家庭和商户，约占该公司在该市客户总数的三分之一。目前大部分区域停电原因暂不明确。据旧金山 消防局消息，太平洋天然气和电力公司位于该市的一处变电站内部当天下午发生火灾，引发部分停电。 国联民生证券认为，北美电网薄弱是长期历史问题，一方面是美国电网老旧待更换，另一方面各洲独立 电网，缺乏调度能力。2023年以来受新能源并网需求+制造业回流需求推动，美国变压器等电力设备需 求持续短缺。另外,现阶段负荷侧需求爆发，数 ...