基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 11 月 4 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20251102 国际油价、蛋氨酸价格下跌， VA 、 VE 价格上涨 十一月份建议关注：1、"十五五"规划建议提及相关子行业；2、低估值行业龙头公司；3、 "反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；4、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 投资建议 风险提示 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 行业动态 本周（10.27-11.02）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 29 个品种价格上涨，39 个品种价格下跌，32 个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中 28%的产品月均价环比上涨， 57%的产品月均价环比下跌，15%的产品月均价环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品 种分别是硫酸（浙江巨化 98%）、维生素 E、硝酸（华东地区）、硫磺（CFR 中 国现货价）、盐酸（长三角 31%）；周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是原盐（山东海 盐）、醋酸（华东）、煤焦油（山西）、醋酐（华东）、甲醇（长三角）。 本周（10.27-11.02）国际油价下跌，WTI 原油期货价格收于 60 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.1 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.642 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.321 billion yuan, up 33.37% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.541 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.11%. The net profit for Q3 was 1.717 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.35% [2]. - The company is one of the four major vitamin producers globally, with ongoing growth expected from its liquid egg project and other initiatives [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 21.610 billion, 26.192 billion, 29.054 billion, and 30.629 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 43.0%, 21.2%, 10.9%, and 5.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.869 billion, 6.530 billion, 7.181 billion, and 7.769 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 117.0%, 11.3%, 10.0%, and 8.2% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.91, 2.12, 2.34, and 2.53 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4]. Business Development Insights - The company’s vitamin E export volume in Q3 2025 was 31,400 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.63%, indicating resilience during the traditional off-season [8]. - The liquid methionine project, a joint venture with Zhenhai Refining, has begun trial production, with expectations for increased output contributing to the company's performance in H2 2025 [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity in methionine, flavor and fragrance, and new materials, with plans to enhance overseas market penetration and product innovation [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) are marginally improving, with prices expected to continue rising due to strong demand recovery and tight supply conditions [1][3] - The domestic production capacity of LiPF6 is concentrated among a few companies, which are likely to benefit from price increases and improved profitability [2] - The lithium-ion battery materials sector is experiencing robust demand growth, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, indicating a broad demand outlook [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market operating rate for LiPF6 is 75.43%, with most manufacturers operating at full capacity, leading to a supply shortage [1] - As of October 17, 2025, LiPF6 prices have risen to 75,000 CNY/ton, marking a 16.3% increase from the previous week and a 20.0% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Production Capacity - China's LiPF6 production capacity stands at 442,900 tons/year, with effective capacity at 389,400 tons/year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [2] - Major producers include Tianqi Lithium, Dongyue Group, and others, with significant expansions planned for 2025-2027 [2] Market Demand - The energy storage sector saw a cumulative bidding scale of 211.11 GWh from January to August 2025, with new installations reaching 21.9 GW/55.2 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 69.4% and 76.6% respectively [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Aviation Industry - Boeing's aircraft delivery suspension has a limited impact on the Chinese aviation industry, with three previously suspended aircraft set to be delivered to Xiamen Airlines and China Southern Airlines. China Eastern Airlines plans to introduce 46 Boeing aircraft by 2025, with about 10 already delivered in Q1. These new aircraft represent less than 1% of the total industry fleet of 4,300 aircraft [2][4] - Market expectations suggest that tax rebates may compensate airlines for the delivery suspension, which has not significantly affected stock prices [4] - The summer 2025 aviation market is expected to see good pre-sales, with non-fuel ticket prices projected to achieve double-digit growth, although current seat occupancy rates are lower than last year [5] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing price increases, particularly in Yiwu, while intense price wars among major companies have not yielded expected results. The growth rate for Zhongtong's parcel volume in Q1 was only 19%, compared to the industry average of 22% [6] - The price war may reach a temporary bottom if price increases continue, presenting a good opportunity for investment in companies like Zhongtong, Jitu, YTO, and Shentong [6] - The application of unmanned vehicles in the last-mile delivery is rapidly advancing, with SF Express increasing its investment in unmanned vehicles, significantly reducing per-package costs [7][8] Chemical Industry - The CCPI price index has decreased due to oil price fluctuations and the seasonal decline in consumption. The index currently stands at 44,033 points, down one percentage point from the previous week [9] - U.S. inventory growth in March was 3.47%, indicating potential future demand decline, which may affect chemical product exports [10] - OPEC's decision to increase production may impact the chemical industry, with a focus on supply-constrained products [11] Fertilizer Market - Potash fertilizer contract prices have risen, with ongoing tight supply and demand conditions expected to maintain high prices. The price for potash contracts in India is $349 per ton, up $70 year-on-year [13][14] Refrigerant and Vitamin Markets - Refrigerant prices are rising due to increased downstream demand, with R32 reaching 51,000 yuan per ton. Vitamin E prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and production halts among leading companies [15] Precious Metals Market - Silver prices are rising due to increased tariffs on copper and aluminum, while platinum and palladium prices are influenced by industrial demand fluctuations. The gold market is currently volatile, with attention on potential risks to the U.S. dollar's credibility [18][19] Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices have risen to $66.65 per barrel, with expectations of fluctuations between $63 and $67 in June. Despite OPEC's production increase, global demand remains tight [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the organic silicon industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The peak production period for organic silicon has passed, and companies are collaborating to reduce output, leading to a potential price recovery from the bottom [1]. - Domestic organic silicon DMC capacity increased from 1.515 million tons/year in 2019 to 3.44 million tons/year by 2024, with limited new capacity expected in the future [1]. - As of March 19, 2025, the average market price for organic silicon was 14,500 CNY/ton, reflecting an 11.5% increase since the beginning of the year, although profit margins remain negative [1]. - The demand for organic silicon is steadily growing, with a CAGR of approximately 10.7% from 2020 to 2024, driven primarily by the construction and electronics sectors [3]. - The report suggests that the limited new supply and increasing demand will likely stabilize and improve the pricing and profitability of organic silicon products [1][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a supply reduction due to increased maintenance and repairs among producers, with 182,000 tons of capacity under maintenance as of February 19, 2025 [2]. - The inventory levels of organic silicon DMC are stable, with a slight increase since September 2024, but still within the median range of the past three years [2]. Section 2: Demand and Applications - The apparent consumption of organic silicon DMC in China rose from 1.21 million tons in 2020 to 1.82 million tons in 2024, with significant growth in exports at a CAGR of 22.5% during the same period [3]. - Key application areas for organic silicon include construction and electronics, which account for 25% and 23% of consumption, respectively [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in high-end construction sealants and materials for photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, driven by policy support and technological advancements [3]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the organic silicon production sector such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, and New安股份, as well as application companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Silica宝科技 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the new materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The chemical raw materials sector is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with a slowdown in capacity expansion and a potential alleviation of intense competition and price wars. The overall profit margin for the industry is expected to remain between 3% and 5% in 2024, which is at a historical low. However, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to address "involution" competition, there is potential for improved industry order and profit recovery [1][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance and Valuation - The new materials index has shown significant volatility, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.6% as of December 27, 2024. The index's performance was particularly weak in the first three quarters of 2024 but saw a recovery in the fourth quarter due to favorable policies [15][20]. 2. Focus Areas 2.1 Supply and Demand Dynamics - The vitamin sector is expected to maintain high prices for Vitamin E due to limited supply recovery from BASF's production facilities, which are aging and unable to meet demand. The report suggests monitoring companies like New Hope Liuhe and Zhejiang Medicine [42][59]. - The renewable energy materials sector is projected to benefit from a stable increase in wind power demand, with a significant rise in installed capacity and a self-regulatory agreement among wind turbine manufacturers to mitigate price competition. Companies like Times New Material and Mega Chip Color are highlighted for investment [44][60]. 2.2 Emerging Industry Opportunities - The bio-manufacturing sector is positioned for growth, particularly in synthetic biology and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The report emphasizes the importance of product selection and platform capabilities for companies in this space, recommending firms like Huaheng Biological and Meihua Biological [48][50]. - The special coatings market is expected to grow due to increasing military expenditures and the need for stealth materials. Companies such as Huaqin Technology and Jiachih Technology are noted for their potential in this area [52][61]. - The semiconductor materials sector is anticipated to benefit from the recovery of consumer electronics and AI applications, with a focus on domestic production capabilities. Companies like Stik and Aisen are recommended for investment [56][61]. - The humanoid robotics market is projected to drive demand for PEEK materials, with domestic companies expected to gain market share due to cost advantages. The report suggests monitoring firms like Zhongxin Fluorine Materials and Zhongyan Co. [58][61].

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company achieved a revenue of 8.419 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 738 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [17][18] - For the second quarter of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.084 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52% [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The overall sales volume of compound fertilizers increased by 12.38% year-on-year in H1 2024, with ordinary compound fertilizers up 10.16% and new-type compound fertilizers up 19.45% [18] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 16.06%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.79%, up 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [18] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company’s new-type fertilizer sales revenue reached 2.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.94%, accounting for 30.43% of the overall sales volume and 35.41% of the sales revenue of compound fertilizers [18] - The company has established a competitive advantage through an integrated industrial chain, with various production capacities including 9.83 million tons/year of high-concentration phosphate fertilizers [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on enhancing its integrated industrial chain advantages and expanding upstream phosphate mine layouts to strengthen its market position [19] - The company aims to achieve net profit growth targets of 30%, 65%, and 100% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a strong commitment to growth [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in the recovery of the compound fertilizer industry and the company's ability to restore volume and profit margins [17][19] - The management highlighted the importance of adapting to changes in the real estate market and consumer behavior as key factors influencing future performance [8][19] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan, with performance targets set to double over three years, indicating a strong commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value [14][15] - The company plans to repurchase 4-8 million shares for the incentive plan, which represents 0.37%-0.75% of the total share capital [14] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What are the expected profit targets for the next three years? - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.25 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [15] Question: How does the company plan to enhance its competitive advantage? - The company plans to enhance its competitive advantage through integrated production capabilities and expanding its phosphate mining operations, which will support its fertilizer production [19]

全球股市一天跌没 20 万亿元 巴菲特一笔交易赚超过 1500 亿美元 马斯克说支持特朗普不代表赞同他做的一切 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 全球股市一天跌没 20 万亿元 2024 年 8 月 5 日，星期一，全球所有主要股市齐跌。根据我们的不完全统计，日本、韩国、中国、欧洲 和美国至少损失超过 20 万亿元市值。 市场其实担心衰退已好一阵子。上周五日经指数就创下 1987 年黑色星期一以来最大跌幅。信心不知何 故地在周末开始加速崩塌。巴菲特出人意料地大卖股票也许击碎了市场残存信心。现在市场恐慌，他已 备好近 2 万亿元现金储备。 周一黑色的情绪是从亚洲股市开始。日经 225 指数重挫 12.4%，韩国综合股价指数盘中熔断、收跌 8.77%。A 股和港股恒生指数不到 2% 的跌幅好于绝大多数市场。欧洲股市是在北京时间下午开盘的， 跌幅介于 2% 到 4%。 期间国际黄金一度上涨超过 1%，但随着更多在欧美市场交易的投资人加入，金价转跌。 到了北京时间晚上九点半，美股标普 500 和纳斯达克指数开盘分别跌超 4% 和 6%。其中，标普 500 指 数在开盘头 1 分钟就跌去近 1.9 ...