Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 China Futures Monthly Report 中国期货运行月报 2026/02/04 More English Reports on 【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】 https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Gui Chenxi 桂晨曦 CFA PhD Qualification No. F3023159 从业资格号 Investment consulting No. Z0013632 投资咨询号 Important Notice: This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only a ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Logic - Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year due to five reasons, including the end of concerns about yen carry - trade after the yen interest - rate hike, the Fed's shift to "technical expansion of the balance sheet", potential institutional capital inflows at the beginning of the year, proactive fiscal policy in China, and the potential for A - share valuation and profit repair. Hong Kong stocks have additional advantages of low valuation and the end of the解禁 peak, and commodities are expected to remain strong due to the revaluation of physical assets [6]. - In the US, the real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.3%, higher than expected. Growth was driven by personal consumption, net exports, and government spending. However, there are internal economic disparities, and caution is needed due to potential temporary factors and a possible government shutdown in Q4 [7]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, driven by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, narrowing of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. This is a sustainable trend, but short - term over - adjustment risks need to be watched [8]. - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 13.1% in November. There are significant differences in industry performance, with the export and high - tech manufacturing sectors supporting profits, while domestic - demand - related industries dragging down the overall growth [9]. - From a meso - economic perspective, the high - frequency economic activity index is at a high level in recent years but has declined significantly. Land transaction area has increased, while traditional industries such as real estate, infrastructure, and some key anti - involution products are under pressure [10]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Logic | Risk Points | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to long - term: Global fiscal and monetary policies are jointly exerting force, China's PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, capital is flowing, and global demand is stable. Short - term: Expectations of further Fed rate cuts, new valuation space in the new year, and the end of concerns about yen carry - trade. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation, optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market [11]. | | Bonds | Medium - to long - term: Limited domestic rate - cut space, inflation and economic improvement due to the unified market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term: Bond yields have risen significantly, and economic momentum lacks explosiveness. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term reduction in allocation [11]. | | Commodities | Medium - to long - term: Fiscal and monetary policies will drive PPI to turn positive next year, Fed rate cuts will weaken the US dollar, and short - duration commodities are affected by real - world factors. Short - term: Abundant liquidity leads to the revaluation of physical assets such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, while the demand for the black - chain is weak. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, trading opportunities in anti - involution - related varieties [11]. | 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Viewpoints - **Market Logic**: Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year, analyze the US economic situation, the RMB exchange - rate trend, China's industrial enterprise profit status, and meso - economic indicators [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Logic of Major Asset Classes**: Provide investment logic, risk points, and allocation suggestions for stocks, bonds, and commodities [11]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - **Investment Index Performance**: Present the performance of different asset classes in terms of recent returns (weekly, monthly, year - to - date, quarterly), drawdowns, Sharpe ratios, and Calmar ratios [22]. - **Valuation, Volatility, and Speculation Degree**: Analyze the valuation, volatility, trend smoothness, and speculation degree of different asset classes, including the original values and their percentile rankings over one - year and three - year periods [23]. - **Stock - Futures Linkage**: Compare the performance of commodity - related indices and stock - related indices in terms of weekly, monthly, and year - to - date returns [25]. 03 Macro - overview - **Domestic Situation**: In November, the unemployment rate remained stable, the CPI continued to rise, the M1 growth rate decreased significantly, and the PMI showed a slight rebound [27][33]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US PMI decreased in November, and the US - Europe interest - rate spread and risk indicators are analyzed [36][39]. 04 Meso - data - **Economic Activity**: In November, industrial added value decreased slightly compared to October, and indicators such as flight volume, subway passenger volume, and the high - frequency economic activity index are presented [46]. - **Real Estate**: Multiple real - estate indicators are at the bottom, while PVC demand is at a high level, including land transaction area, housing sales area, and demand for building materials [49]. - **Shipping and Exports**: Shipping freight indices and export data of some key commodities are presented, including CCFI, CICFI, the Belt and Road trade - volume index, and the export growth rate of home appliances, integrated circuits, and automobiles [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Short - term, industrial enterprise profit growth faces pressure, but may improve in 2025 with policy implementation. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10, with a mild appreciation rhythm. The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the bond market may be affected by policy expectations [2][4]. Commodities Metals - Platinum and palladium are likely to be weak in the short term, with investment attributes as the main driver. Gold and silver are expected to rise in the long - term, but silver may face short - term profit - taking pressure. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina may be weak. Zinc is expected to be strong, and nickel and stainless steel will continue to oscillate. Tin prices are strongly driven by funds, and short - term shorting is not recommended. Lithium carbonate prices may experience a short - term correction [12][16][18][20]. Black Metals - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices have limited downside in the short term. Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term pressure, and ferroalloys are expected to be weakly oscillatory [30][31][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate downward in the long - term, with short - term multi - empty factors in balance. LPG is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. PX - PTA has a relatively good supply - demand structure, but PTA processing fee recovery space is limited. MEG is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the valuation is under pressure in the long - term. Methanol 01 maintains a weak expectation. PP and PE are expected to be oscillatory, with PE showing a weakening trend. EB is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [40][41][43][46][50]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policy in the long - term, but in the short - term, the near - month delivery pressure persists. Oilseeds and oils are expected to oscillate, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level. Sugar prices remain weak, eggs are expected to be bearish in the long - term, apples maintain a strong pattern, and jujubes may have limited downside in the short - term [79][80][81][83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US PCE inflation data. China - France high - level meetings are held, and the US employment market shows a "no - firing, no - hiring" pattern. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the EU plans to build a unified capital market [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.069 on the previous trading day, down 29 basis points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was raised by 21 basis points. Short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated strongly on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 0.34%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1,210.02 billion yuan. Short - term, the stock index is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the release of PCE data [4][5][7]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds closed down on Thursday, with the 30 - year yield reaching a high point. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase was 180.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. Short - term, the market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping market fluctuated slightly on December 4. The 02 contract has limited upward space, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The market is affected by multiple factors, with long - short factors competing [8][9][10]. Commodities Metals Platinum and Palladium - NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts closed down at night. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is about 89%. Short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and prices mainly follow gold and silver [12]. Gold and Silver - London gold and silver prices showed a pattern of gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is high. Long - term, precious metal prices are expected to rise, but short - term, silver may face profit - taking pressure [13][14][16]. Copper - Overnight, Comex copper, LME copper, etc. had different trends. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors [17][18]. Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum closed up, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly oscillatory [20][21]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc closed up. The ADP data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, supply may contract, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strongly oscillatory [21][22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel and stainless steel oscillated. Nickel ore is expected to be stable and strong, and the new - energy sector has limited support. Stainless steel fundamentals have limited improvement, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and the December interest - rate cut expectation [22][23][24]. Tin - Shanghai tin was strongly driven by funds. The ADP data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply side has problems. Short - term, shorting is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the 315,000 yuan level [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures contract closed up slightly. The spot market sentiment improved, but the price may experience a short - term correction [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to environmental protection. Polysilicon's short - term trading focuses on the "warehouse receipt inventory and open interest" game [27][28]. Lead - Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly and rose slightly at night. The smelting side has production cuts, and the inventory has decreased. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,400 [29]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices oscillated strongly. The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, but the profit of steel enterprises is declining. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500 [30][31]. Iron Ore - Iron ore oscillated, and the industrial contradictions were alleviated. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the steel mill's production cut and profit recovery provide support. The short - term price has limited downside [32][34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke contracts completed the main contract change. Coking coal supply is in a slight surplus, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Coking coal 01 is in a short - term bearish trend, while the 05 contract has long - term multi - allocation value [35][36]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded. The market is affected by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and the US - Russia negotiation. Long - term, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [40][41]. LPG - LPG prices maintained an oscillatory pattern. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [42][43]. PTA - PX - PX supply decreased slightly, and PTA supply increased. The demand for polyester is high, and PTA processing fees have been repaired. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the dynamics of blending oil [44][46]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG supply increased, and the demand for polyester is high. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [47][50]. Methanol - Methanol 01 maintained a weak expectation. The price rebounded due to the shutdown in Iran. The subsequent game focuses on unloading speed, inland demand, and Iranian shipping volume [51][52]. PP - PP prices were weak in the spot market. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is low, and shorting is not recommended [53][55]. PE - PE prices returned to a weak oscillatory pattern. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillatory [56][57]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the export demand of styrene and the terminal demand [58][59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply and demand of fuel oil are affected by multiple factors [60][61][62]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices declined slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The winter - storage policy is about to be introduced, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [62][64]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog futures prices declined. The northern and southern pig markets showed different trends. Policy may affect long - term supply, but near - month delivery pressure persists [79][80]. Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds oscillated weakly, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans and the demand for domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [81][82]. Oils - The domestic oils market oscillated. The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by different factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, waiting for data guidance [83]. Cotton - ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton prices declined. The new cotton is accelerating to the market, and the downstream has resilience. The cotton price has limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level [84]. Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices were weak. The global sugar supply is in excess, and the price is expected to remain weak [85][86]. Eggs - Egg futures prices remained unchanged. The market demand has recovered, and the inventory has been cleared. The long - term egg production capacity is still in excess, and the price is expected to be bearish [87]. Apples - Apple futures prices declined, but the strong pattern remains. The inventory of late - Fuji apples decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [88][89]. Jujubes - Jujube prices oscillated at a low level. The new jujubes are being harvested, and the price may have limited downside in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the final production [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Macro - In the short - term, the profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises will face great pressure and likely maintain a weak and volatile pattern. In the long - term, the profit of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a recovery channel in 2025. The RMB is likely to continue a stable and relatively strong trend in the short - term, with a slower appreciation speed and more obvious two - way fluctuations. In the long - term, it is expected to start a gentle appreciation channel [1][3][4] Stock Index - Overseas market fluctuations may disturb the A - share market, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, it is expected to be mainly volatile [4][5] Treasury Bonds - The central bank's bond - buying scale should be focused on. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6] Container Shipping to Europe - The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the short - term price fluctuation is intensified [6][8] Commodities Precious Metals - In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, silver has set a new high, and platinum and palladium mainly follow the trend of gold and silver [10][14] Copper - If there is no new contradiction in the short - term, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock after the breakthrough [17] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum shows a strong and volatile trend, alumina is in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy is strong and volatile [18][19] Zinc - It shows a strong and volatile trend [19] Nickel and Stainless Steel - They are strong in the short - term, but the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [20][21] Tin - It is not recommended to short in the short - term, and the strategy of entering the market on dips is maintained [22] Lithium Carbonate - There may be a short - term correction, but there are opportunities to go long on dips in the medium - to - long - term [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a volatile state, and polysilicon is expected to have an enlarged fluctuation range [26] Lead - There is support below, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The profit is improving, and they are in a strong and volatile trend [29][30] Iron Ore - The price will maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - The macro - sentiment is improving. Coking coal prices are under short - term pressure, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [35][36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - They are in a weak and volatile trend [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In the short - term, it is in a volatile pattern, and in the long - term, it is in a downward trend [40] LPG - It is in a volatile state [41][43] PTA - PX - The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - The downward driving force is weakening, and it is recommended to sell call options [49][50] PP - The cost support is strong, and the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally [52][53] PE - The upward space is limited due to insufficient self - driving force [54][56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - The cracking is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The cracking is weakening, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - The bottom space is limited, and the winter storage policy should be focused on [61][62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The weather speculation sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to wait and see [63] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's November Manufacturing PMI was 49.9, with the new export order growing at the fastest rate in 8 months. The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank at the largest rate in four months. Japan's central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [1] - **Core Logic**: Domestically, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased year - on - year in October. In the short - term, the profit growth rate will face pressure, and in the long - term, it is expected to recover. Overseas, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile at a high level [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [2] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI declined, and the Japanese central bank governor signaled a possible interest - rate hike [2] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed up, and the trading volume in the two markets increased. The futures index showed different volume changes [4] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank, and the Japanese central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [4][5] - **Core Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the easing of geopolitical risks strengthen the support for the stock index. The hawkish remarks of the Japanese central bank may affect the A - share market [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The bond futures rebounded on Monday, and the funds were loose [5] - **Important Information**: The Japanese central bank governor said to evaluate the pros and cons of raising interest rates [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The signal of the Japanese central bank's interest - rate hike may affect the A - share market and increase the rebound power of the bond market. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying data [6] Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Review**: The futures market of container shipping to Europe strengthened, and the SCFIS declined after the market closed [7][8] - **Information Sorting**: Positive factors include the expectation of China - EU trade cooperation and the warming of the shipping sector. Negative factors include the loose supply - demand pattern, the expectation of Red Sea shipping resumption, and macro - risks [8] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Silver set a new high, and gold and platinum fluctuated after rising [10] - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is stable, and the holdings of some ETFs have changed [12] - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to the US data and the speeches of Fed officials [13] Copper - **Market Review**: The prices of copper futures in different markets showed different trends, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - **Industry Information**: The copper inventory decreased, and the CSPT planned to reduce the copper ore production capacity in 2026 [15][16][17] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends [17] - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is affected by macro - sentiment and copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [18] Zinc - **Market Review**: The price of zinc futures was strong [19] - **Industry Performance**: A zinc - lead mine project in a certain country is expected to start production [19] - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the smelting end has a willingness to reduce production due to raw material problems. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [19][20] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The price of nickel futures rose, and that of stainless steel futures fell [20] - **Industry Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel in the spot market changed, and the inventory situation was reported [20] - **Market Analysis**: They are affected by copper, and the prices of nickel ore are stable. Nickel iron has a tendency to reduce production, and the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [21] Tin - **Market Review**: The price of tin futures was blocked from rising [22] - **Core Logic**: The supply - side raw material problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [22] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the trading volume decreased while the open interest increased [22] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the lithium - battery industry chain was weak, and the prices of some products changed [23] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and there may be a short - term correction [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures changed, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends [25] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industries was general, and the prices of some products changed [25][26] - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon will have greater fluctuations [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The price of lead futures fluctuated narrowly [27] - **Industry Performance**: A new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented in 2025 [27] - **Core Logic**: The raw material problem of primary lead has not been solved, and the production willingness of recycled lead has decreased. The import window is open, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Review**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were strong and volatile [29] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, the profit is improving, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [30][31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume in China changed [32][33] - **Core Logic**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, the demand is supported, the valuation is repaired, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: They were in a strong and volatile trend [35] - **Information Sorting**: The purchase price of coke by some steel mills was lowered, and there were environmental protection problems in some regions [35] - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes and is in a slight surplus. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills [36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Review**: They rebounded slightly, driven by coking coal and finished products [37] - **Core Logic**: The demand is expected to decline, the inventory is high, the production profit is declining, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil rose. There were attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and Chevron signed an exploration agreement [39] - **Core Logic**: The supply concern has increased, and the price is in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the supply surplus pressure remains, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [40] LPG - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of LPG futures and related benchmarks changed [42] - **Spot Feedback**: The average prices in different regions changed [42] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, the demand changed little, and the inventory decreased [42][43] PTA - PX - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX decreased, and the supply of PTA had some changes. The demand of polyester was expected to be high, and the processing fee of PTA was repaired [44][45][46] - **Core Logic**: The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and the PTA - PX supply - demand structure is relatively good. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual situation of blending for oil [46][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased [48] - **Device**: Some devices were restarted and some were shut down [48] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the profit of each route was repaired, and the inventory was expected to increase. The demand of polyester was expected to be high [48][49] - **Core Logic**: The downward driving force of ethylene glycol is weakening, and the inventory accumulation expectation in December is revised to a tight balance. In the long - term, the cost support will weaken, and the short - term strategy is to sell call options [49][50] PP - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PP futures decreased slightly [51] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [51] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory decreased [52] - **Core Logic**: The cost support is strong, the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally, and attention should be paid to the PDH device status and the basis change [53] PE - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PE futures increased slightly [54] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [54] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory decreased [54][55][56] - **Core Logic**: The self - driving force is insufficient, the supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to be volatile after the rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot and the basis [56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased [57] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene changed [57] - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of pure benzene increased, and that of styrene in some places decreased and in some places increased [57] - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of fuel oil futures was reported [59] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [59] - **Core Logic**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil increased in November, the demand for power generation was weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures was reported [60] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [60] - **Core Logic**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by some factors in November, the cracking was compressed, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The price of asphalt futures was reported [61] - **Spot Performance**: The average price of asphalt in the domestic market decreased, and the prices in different regions changed [61] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [61] - **Core Logic**: The spot and futures prices were stable near the integer mark, and the winter storage may face the problem of insufficient volume. After the winter storage policy is introduced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly volatile [62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Related Information**: China's November PMI data, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the rubber inventory situation were reported [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided documents. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint On June 26, 2025, equity index futures declined, while 30 - year CGB rose; metal futures trended strongly, and agricultural product futures fell. The top three gainers were coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal, and the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview On June 26, equity index futures declined, 30 - year CGB rose, metal futures were strong, and agricultural product futures fell. Coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal were the top gainers, with coking coal rising 3.6% and positions increasing 7.7% month - on - month, poly - silicon rising 3.5% and positions decreasing 3.7% month - on - month, and silicon metal rising 2.7% and positions increasing 4.8% month - on - month. Rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean were the top decliners, with rapeseed meal falling 2.7% and positions increasing 8.9% month - on - month, soybean meal falling 2.4% and positions decreasing 0.8% month - on - month, and No.2 Soybean falling 1.6% and positions decreasing 12.0% month - on - month [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise - **Silicon Metal**: On June 26, it increased by 2.7% to 7720 yuan/ton. There was news of a furnace shutdown at an enterprise, but the supply - demand contradiction remained unrelieved, keeping silicon prices under pressure. On the supply side, northern large - scale manufacturers resumed production, and southwest China entered the wet season with reduced electricity prices and new capacity launches. On the demand side, downstream demand was weak, with polysilicon producers cutting output. Social inventories continued to accumulate, but futures prices made the market more cost - effective, and warehouse receipt inventory was liquidated faster, supporting near - month contracts [16][17][18]. - **TSR20**: On June 26, it increased by 2.6% to 12145 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 2.1% to 14040 yuan/ton. External shocks subsided, and prices may follow overall commodity volatility. The trading focus may return to fundamentals, but rubber's fundamentals had limited short - term variables. Supply was affected by the rainy season, and demand was relatively stable in the short - term but weak in expectation. In the third quarter, de - stocking trades may prevent a deep decline [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Rapeseed Meal**: On June 26, it decreased by 2.7% to 2550 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.4% to 2936 yuan/ton. Domestically, soybean meal had both supply and demand growth, while rapeseed meal faced weakening in both. In the short - to - medium term, soybean arrivals were expected to increase, oil mill operating rates would remain high, and soybean meal inventories were rising seasonally. In the long term, breeding sow inventory growth indicated stable and increasing rigid demand for soybean meal, and there were expected supply gaps in the fourth quarter [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports to the EU and will strengthen approval work. The NDRC will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in program in July and will launch and intensify the implementation of the equipment renewal loan interest discount policy [38]. 3.2.2 Industry News The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Policy Declaration on Digital Asset Development 2.0". The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to list offset printing paper futures and options [39][40].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/05/28 Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观方面：1—4 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长 1.4%。 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 A ...