2025 年 11 月 27 日 公司研究 3Q25 亏损持续收窄，4Q25E 扭亏前景可期 ——蔚来（NIO.N）2025 年三季度业绩点评 要点 3Q25 亏损持续收窄：3Q25 蔚来总收入同比+16.7%/环比+14.7%至 217.9 亿元， 毛利率同比+3.2pcts/环比+3.9pcts 至 13.9%，Non-GAAP 归母净亏损同比收窄 37.3%/环比收窄 33.1%至 27.6 亿元。 3Q25 毛利率爬坡，4Q25E 扭亏可期：1）3Q25 交付量同比+40.8%/环比+20.8% 至 8.7 万辆，汽车业务收入同比+15.0%/环比+19.0%至 192.0 亿元（ASP 同比 -18.3%/环比-1.5%至 22.1 万元），汽车业务毛利率同比+1.6pcts/环比+4.4pcts 至 14.7%。2）3Q25 Non-gaap 研发费用率同比-6.6pcts/环比-4.2pcts 至 8.9%， Non-GAAP SG&A 费用率同比-2.8pcts/环比-1.3pcts 至 18.0%。3）3Q25 Non-GAAP 单车亏损同环比收窄至 3.2 万元、自由现金流转正；截至 3Q ...

Core Insights - CATL's production capacity utilization rate was close to 90% in the first half of the year and has approached full capacity by October [1] - Several Chinese automakers are rushing to secure battery supplies from CATL before the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidies in January [2] - The current supply constraints are primarily focused on high-nickel battery products, which are used in mid-to-high-end vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan [2] Group 1 - The surge in demand for energy storage batteries has further squeezed the production capacity for power batteries, with energy storage battery shipments accounting for over 20% in October [3] - CATL has increased its procurement of lithium iron phosphate materials in response to the rising demand for energy storage, which began to escalate around mid-year [3] - CATL is expanding its production capacity across various locations, including domestic bases and international projects in Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia, with completion dates extending to 2026 [3] Group 2 - The competition for battery supplies has intensified, with some second-tier battery manufacturers reaching 110% capacity utilization due to pre-ordered high-quality production lines [3] - Automakers are proactively securing battery orders to mitigate risks associated with the upcoming subsidy reduction, leading to a "battery war" among companies [2] - CATL is more inclined to offer guarantees and discounts to automakers with high shipment volumes [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - In October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 60%, with approximately 1.32 million units sold, despite a 2% month-over-month decline in total retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles [22] - Jiushi Intelligent has completed a $100 million B4 round of financing, marking it as the largest single-round financing in the Robovan sector in China [22] - Major automotive manufacturers are advancing in autonomous driving technology, with plans for L3 level and above by 2027-2030 [22] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 0.92%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.43% [3][9] - The passenger vehicle segment saw a decline of 1.88%, while commercial vehicles increased by 3.11% [3] - Key players in the passenger vehicle sector include BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto, while commercial vehicle focus includes China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and FAW Liberation [3] Industry News - Notable developments include NIO's ES8 model surpassing 10,000 deliveries and a recall of 11,411 units of the 2024 MEGA model by Li Auto [22] - Partnerships are forming, such as Changan Automobile collaborating with JD.com to develop new energy unmanned intelligent vehicles [22] - Bosch has indicated potential production disruptions due to disputes with semiconductor manufacturer Anshi [22] Upstream Data Tracking - Key material prices are being monitored, including steel, aluminum, and lithium carbonate, which are critical for automotive manufacturing [24][25][27]

Core Insights - Recent electric vehicle fire incidents have reignited concerns over battery safety, particularly among high-end models like Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, NIO ET7, Li Auto MEGA, Mercedes EQE, and Porsche Taycan, which are priced between 300,000 to 1,000,000 yuan [1] - The evolution of battery technology has focused on increasing energy density and fast charging capabilities, allowing electric vehicles to match or exceed the performance of traditional fuel vehicles in terms of range [1] - Despite advancements in performance, safety has often been treated as a passive requirement, only highlighted by incidents of battery fires [1] Battery Technology Evolution - The first major evolution in power batteries involved a shift from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) to ternary lithium batteries, which offer higher energy density but lower thermal stability [2] - Ternary lithium batteries typically use nickel, cobalt, and manganese or aluminum, with higher nickel content leading to increased energy density but reduced thermal stability [2][3] - High-nickel batteries (NCM 811) faced significant safety issues, leading to a shift towards more balanced compositions in the industry [3] Structural Design and Safety Risks - Recent advancements in battery design have focused on increasing energy density by optimizing structural design, such as integrating more active materials into the same volume [4][6] - The transition from modular to cell-to-pack (CTP) and cell-to-chassis (CTC) designs has allowed for more energy storage but also increased the risk of thermal runaway during incidents [4][6] Fast Charging Challenges - The rise of high-voltage fast charging technology has introduced new safety challenges, with increased power leading to higher demands on insulation and protection systems [7][9] - While fast charging improves user experience, it can also shorten battery lifespan and increase the risk of thermal runaway due to rapid lithium ion movement [9][10] Ongoing Safety Improvements - The industry is exploring solid-state batteries as a potential solution for combining high performance with safety, but significant challenges remain before widespread adoption [11] - Battery manufacturers are continuously optimizing liquid battery designs to enhance safety, such as improving cooling systems and battery management systems (BMS) [11][12] - Despite rigorous testing, the transition from laboratory conditions to real-world applications presents numerous variables that can affect battery safety [13][14] Industry Response to Incidents - Each fire incident serves as a critical warning for the industry, providing valuable data for technological improvements [14][15] - Leading battery manufacturers are striving to reduce failure rates to parts per billion (ppb) levels, although the perceived risk remains significant for individual users [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new market structure in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sector, highlighting the shift from the previously dominant "Wei Xiaoli" (Weilai, Xiaopeng, Li Auto) to a new group termed "BIG 6+1," which includes Tesla, Li Auto, Hongmeng Zhixing, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, NIO, and Zero Run. This shift indicates a significant change in market dynamics as these companies collectively approach or surpass the sales of leading brand BYD, marking the beginning of a new competitive phase in the EV market [4][18]. Market Dynamics - By August 2025, the total insurance registrations of the seven new force car companies approached or briefly exceeded that of BYD, indicating a potential shift in market leadership [4][6]. - The "BIG 6+1" collectively accounted for a market share of approximately 15.25% in August 2025, with BYD holding a share of 13.97% [17]. Definition of New Forces - The term "new forces" in the automotive industry lacks a precise definition, but a simple distinction can be made based on whether a company has the qualification to produce fuel vehicles. Companies without this qualification can only produce pure electric or extended-range products [5][6]. Sales Rankings - In the August 2025 sales rankings, the top seven new force companies were Tesla (57,152 units, 2.81%), Zero Run (51,162 units, 2.52%), Hongmeng Zhixing (40,012 units, 1.97%), Xiaomi (36,396 units, 1.79%), Xiaopeng (34,691 units, 1.71%), NIO (16,434 units, 0.81%), and Li Auto (28,529 units, 1.40%) [6][7]. Product Offerings - The "BIG 6+1" companies have a limited number of main models, with most brands offering around seven models. Tesla, while having many variants, primarily sells three main models [9][8]. - The average selling prices of the brands vary, with Tesla at 29.67 million yuan, Li Auto at 34.90 million yuan, and Zero Run at 12.98 million yuan, indicating a diverse pricing strategy among the new forces [13][15]. Distribution Channels - The distribution network of "BIG 6+1" varies, with Zero Run and Hongmeng Zhixing having the most stores (around 942 and approximately 1,000 respectively), while Tesla and Xiaomi have around 300-400 stores [11][12]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that as the "BIG 6+1" solidifies its market position, it will significantly impact the overall EV market, potentially leading to a new phase of competition and market consolidation [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as OmniVision Technologies (603501.CH), Q Technology (1478.HK), and NIO Inc. (9866.HK/NIO.US) as key tracking targets in their respective segments [5] - Additionally, it reiterates a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (9863.HK), Sunny Optical Technology (2382.HK), Horizon Robotics (9660.HK), and Yangjie Technology (300373.CH) as industry leaders [5] - The report also suggests investors pay attention to potential opportunities in companies like InHand Networks (1760.HK), Sijia Technology (580.HK), ZhiXing Technology (1274.HK), Youjia Innovation (2431.HK), Wingtech Technology (600745.CH), and CR Micro (688396.CH) [5] Core Insights - The technology industry is experiencing significant opportunities driven by technological innovation across various sectors, including consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, intelligent driving, and power semiconductors [2][3] - In the consumer electronics sector, there is a notable surge in demand for products like action cameras and panoramic cameras, which is expected to continue into the second half of the year and next year [2] - The new energy vehicle market is in a product explosion phase, with companies like NIO seeing demand growth driven by successful product definitions [2] - Intelligent driving technology is rapidly evolving, with significant opportunities for industry players as technology applications and product implementations progress [3] - The power semiconductor industry is witnessing a stabilization in competition, with some manufacturers experiencing price increases in certain product areas [3][5] Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - The report highlights a demand explosion in the consumer electronics sector, particularly for action and panoramic cameras, which is expected to provide substantial growth momentum for smartphone supply chain players [2] - Innovations in components such as high-pixel image sensors and periscope camera modules are anticipated to create growth opportunities even in a stable smartphone market [2] New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle companies are experiencing a demand surge, particularly with successful product definitions leading to a "supply-demand imbalance" phase, which is expected to enhance fundamentals and valuations [2] Intelligent Driving - The intelligent driving sector is characterized by rapid technological iterations, with significant opportunities for breakthroughs as industry players adopt new technologies [3] - The domestic chip manufacturer Horizon Robotics is seeing large-scale applications of its intelligent driving chips in automotive companies [3] Power Semiconductors - The power semiconductor industry is experiencing a reduction in traditional cyclical fluctuations, with some manufacturers reporting stability and potential price increases in specific product areas [3] - There remains substantial room for domestic substitution in the power semiconductor sector, with a stable competitive landscape [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly driven by technology and state-owned enterprise reforms [4]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from a bull market, with technology-driven segments like robotics and low-altitude economy likely to follow the lead of TMT [4]. - The report highlights the performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which saw a retail volume of 268,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 22.94% and a year-on-year increase of 4.69%, resulting in a penetration rate of 59.56% [4]. - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, and Xpeng, as well as component companies with strong growth potential [4]. Industry Situation Update - In the 37th week of 2025, the total retail volume of passenger cars reached 450,000 units, with traditional energy vehicles accounting for 182,000 units and new energy vehicles for 268,000 units [4]. - The report notes a decrease in raw material price indices for both traditional and new energy vehicles over the past week [4]. - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 922.739 billion yuan, with an industry index increase of 2.95% [4][12]. Market Situation Update - The automotive industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index, ranking 4th among primary industries in terms of weekly growth [12]. - A total of 151 stocks in the automotive sector rose, with the largest gainers being Junsheng Electronics, Shanzigao Technology, and Kaiter Co., which saw increases of 44.2%, 39.7%, and 33.8% respectively [18]. - Key events included the release of the national standard for intelligent assisted driving and the launch of NIO's new ES8 model [4][5][7]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: technology and state-owned enterprise reforms, recommending strong domestic manufacturers and component companies with robust performance growth [4]. - Specific recommendations include NIO, Ideal Auto, and companies involved in robotics and overseas expansion [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-quality blue-chip stocks that are still at the bottom of the market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting key companies such as Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi Group as potential investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards smart and electric vehicles, with significant growth expected in the intelligent driving and global expansion of quality domestic brands [11][12]. - The robot sector is poised for a major catalyst in Q4 2025, with Tesla's Optimus V3 expected to drive production and market interest [9][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the T-chain in the robotics industry, indicating a strong focus on hardware advancements and the ongoing process of domestic robot manufacturers moving towards IPOs [9][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - The automotive sector outperformed the market, with the A-share automotive sector rising by 3.9% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 2.9% [30]. Weekly Data - In the first week of September 2025, passenger car sales reached 368,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 29.8%. New energy vehicle sales were 221,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [3][41]. Key News - Chery Automobile has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, potentially marking the largest IPO of a car company in Hong Kong this year [10]. - NIO announced plans to issue 181.8 million Class A ordinary shares to fund research in core technologies for smart electric vehicles [10]. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the report recommends focusing on quality domestic brands that are accelerating in smart technology and global markets, specifically naming Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi Group [11]. - In the parts sector, it suggests investing in companies involved in intelligent driving and smart cockpits, as well as those in the new energy vehicle supply chain [12][13]. Robotics Sector - The report highlights the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus V3, which is expected to significantly increase production capacity and market presence [9][14]. - It also notes the importance of hardware advancements in the robotics sector, particularly in areas such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials [9][14]. Motorcycle Sector - The report indicates a rapid expansion in the large-displacement motorcycle market, with sales in July 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [21][22]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies in this segment, such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [22]. Heavy Truck Sector - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from expanded subsidies for replacing old vehicles, with July 2025 sales showing a year-on-year increase of 45.6% [24][25]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [25]. Tire Sector - The tire industry is experiencing growth driven by high demand and low valuations, with a focus on companies that are expanding their global presence [26][27]. - The report recommends companies like Sailun Tire and Senkiren for investment [27].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the financial products industry [1] Core Insights - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a cumulative increase of 4.06% in August, characterized by a "spiral upward" trend, with significant fluctuations driven by macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports [7][12] - As of August 29, 2025, the Hang Seng Technology Index's PE-TTM was 21.23 times, indicating a relatively low historical valuation and suggesting higher safety margins and potential for value appreciation [18] - The index's risk level adjusted to 82.31, indicating support from below and a gradual upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected [21] Market Performance Review - **Trend Review**: The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.06% from August 1 to August 29, with a trading volume of approximately 15,932 billion [12] - **Valuation Analysis**: The PE-TTM of the index was 21.23, at the 17.70% historical percentile, indicating a low relative valuation [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The risk level of the index was adjusted to 82.31, with support from below and some upward pressure from above [21] Event-Driven Review - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Weak U.S. employment data triggered recession and interest rate cut expectations, positively impacting the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index [23] - **Policy Factors**: The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, but hawkish signals from the Fed impacted liquidity in the Hong Kong market [32] - **Industry Factors**: Ongoing price wars in the food delivery sector and AI model iterations have affected profitability and market sentiment [37] Index Outlook - **Key Event Forecast**: Future performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index will be influenced by macroeconomic data and policy developments [48] - **Index Performance Outlook**: High probability of interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of foreign capital inflows, suggesting potential upward movement for the index [55] - **Related ETF Products**: The Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a total market value of 38.258 billion as of August 29, 2025 [56]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's new models, the ES8 and L90, are experiencing strong sales, contributing to the company's market capitalization returning to over 100 billion RMB [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - NIO's market capitalization reached 111 billion HKD, approximately 101.69 billion RMB, as of the report date [1]. - The L90 SUV was officially launched on July 31, with a starting purchase price of 265,800 RMB and a rental option starting at 179,800 RMB [5]. - The new ES8 was officially released on August 21, with a pre-sale starting price of 416,800 RMB and a rental option starting at 308,800 RMB, and it is set to be delivered in late September [6]. Group 2: Market Strategy - NIO's user operations head emphasized the importance of customer engagement and professionalism among staff, especially with increased customer traffic [3]. - The company is encouraged to promote its products positively and avoid negative comparisons with competitors, as several new products from rival brands are entering the market [3]. - NIO's founder and CEO highlighted the strategic importance of the L90 model, indicating that it is expected to support stable operations and profitability in Q4 [6].