2026 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究 4Q25 特斯拉交付低于预期，2026E 以旧换新补贴延续或提振销量 12 月蔚来重回新势力榜首：1）蔚来交付量同比+54.6%/环比+32.7%至 48,135 辆（NIO 品牌同比+54.8%/环比+75.4%至 31,897 辆、乐道品牌同比-13.1%/环 比-21.9%至 9,154 辆）；2）理想交付量同比-24.4%/环比+33.3%至 44,246 辆； 3）小鹏交付量同比+2.2%/环比+2.1%至 37,508 辆。 新年购车优惠陆续推出：特斯拉：国产 Model 3 全系将于 2026/2 交付， Model Y 长续航版本维持 2026/2 交付、后轮驱动版本维持 2026/1 交付，Model YL 将 于 2026/2 交付；Model 3 和 Model Y 延续 5 年 0 息金融政策，Model YL 延续 3 年 0 息金融政策。新势力：1）理想：L6 交付周期维持 1-3 周，MEGA 交付周期 维持 1-4 周，i8 交付周期维持 2-4 周，L9 交付周期维持 1-5 周（vs. 12 月为 3-5 周），L7 和 L8 交付周 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 游泽晨 youzechen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 看好高端车市场自主品牌崛起 ——汽车行业双周报（20251124-20251207） 证券分析师 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 市场空间：40 万元以上高端车市场空间稳定，看好纯电放量驱动新能源渗透率提升。 2018 年以来，绝大多数年份 40 万元以上高端车销量均保持在 70-120 万辆区间内， 在汽车总销量中占比基本在 5%以上，市场空间整体稳定。目前 40 万元以上高端车 的能源类型仍以 ICE 为主，2025 年 1-10 月累计销量中 ICE 占比为 52.9%，BEV 仅 15.0%。随着充电效率的提升和补能网络逐步完善，纯电车型有望凭借更大的空间、 更顺畅的驾驶体验和更高的能源转化效率等优势在高端市场快速放量，驱动新能源 渗透率进一步提升，预计 2026 年 40 万元以上高端车新能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - NIO's total revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 21.79 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 13.9% [1][2]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, with management guiding for a delivery volume of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles and a gross margin of 18% [2][4]. - The introduction of new models and expansion into international markets, along with a joint venture for chip supply, may create new profit models for NIO [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, NIO's vehicle deliveries rose by 40.8% year-on-year and 20.8% quarter-on-quarter to 87,000 units, with automotive revenue increasing by 15.0% year-on-year to 19.20 billion RMB [2]. - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 37.3% year-on-year to 2.76 billion RMB [1][2]. Cost Management - R&D expense ratio decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year to 8.9%, while SG&A expense ratio fell by 2.8 percentage points to 18.0% [2]. Future Projections - The report projects a Non-GAAP net loss of approximately 12.8 billion RMB for 2025, with expectations of a return to profitability in 2026 with a net profit of 266 million RMB [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 84.35 billion RMB for 2025 and 132.83 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 28.3% and 57.5% respectively [5][9]. Market Positioning - NIO is set to launch three new mid-to-large SUVs in 2026, which may enhance its market presence and sales performance [3]. - The company is also expanding its international footprint through partnerships and new product offerings, which could further drive growth [3].

Core Insights - CATL's production capacity utilization rate was close to 90% in the first half of the year and has approached full capacity by October [1] - Several Chinese automakers are rushing to secure battery supplies from CATL before the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidies in January [2] - The current supply constraints are primarily focused on high-nickel battery products, which are used in mid-to-high-end vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan [2] Group 1 - The surge in demand for energy storage batteries has further squeezed the production capacity for power batteries, with energy storage battery shipments accounting for over 20% in October [3] - CATL has increased its procurement of lithium iron phosphate materials in response to the rising demand for energy storage, which began to escalate around mid-year [3] - CATL is expanding its production capacity across various locations, including domestic bases and international projects in Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia, with completion dates extending to 2026 [3] Group 2 - The competition for battery supplies has intensified, with some second-tier battery manufacturers reaching 110% capacity utilization due to pre-ordered high-quality production lines [3] - Automakers are proactively securing battery orders to mitigate risks associated with the upcoming subsidy reduction, leading to a "battery war" among companies [2] - CATL is more inclined to offer guarantees and discounts to automakers with high shipment volumes [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - In October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 60%, with approximately 1.32 million units sold, despite a 2% month-over-month decline in total retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles [22] - Jiushi Intelligent has completed a $100 million B4 round of financing, marking it as the largest single-round financing in the Robovan sector in China [22] - Major automotive manufacturers are advancing in autonomous driving technology, with plans for L3 level and above by 2027-2030 [22] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 0.92%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.43% [3][9] - The passenger vehicle segment saw a decline of 1.88%, while commercial vehicles increased by 3.11% [3] - Key players in the passenger vehicle sector include BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto, while commercial vehicle focus includes China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and FAW Liberation [3] Industry News - Notable developments include NIO's ES8 model surpassing 10,000 deliveries and a recall of 11,411 units of the 2024 MEGA model by Li Auto [22] - Partnerships are forming, such as Changan Automobile collaborating with JD.com to develop new energy unmanned intelligent vehicles [22] - Bosch has indicated potential production disruptions due to disputes with semiconductor manufacturer Anshi [22] Upstream Data Tracking - Key material prices are being monitored, including steel, aluminum, and lithium carbonate, which are critical for automotive manufacturing [24][25][27]

Core Insights - Recent electric vehicle fire incidents have reignited concerns over battery safety, particularly among high-end models like Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, NIO ET7, Li Auto MEGA, Mercedes EQE, and Porsche Taycan, which are priced between 300,000 to 1,000,000 yuan [1] - The evolution of battery technology has focused on increasing energy density and fast charging capabilities, allowing electric vehicles to match or exceed the performance of traditional fuel vehicles in terms of range [1] - Despite advancements in performance, safety has often been treated as a passive requirement, only highlighted by incidents of battery fires [1] Battery Technology Evolution - The first major evolution in power batteries involved a shift from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) to ternary lithium batteries, which offer higher energy density but lower thermal stability [2] - Ternary lithium batteries typically use nickel, cobalt, and manganese or aluminum, with higher nickel content leading to increased energy density but reduced thermal stability [2][3] - High-nickel batteries (NCM 811) faced significant safety issues, leading to a shift towards more balanced compositions in the industry [3] Structural Design and Safety Risks - Recent advancements in battery design have focused on increasing energy density by optimizing structural design, such as integrating more active materials into the same volume [4][6] - The transition from modular to cell-to-pack (CTP) and cell-to-chassis (CTC) designs has allowed for more energy storage but also increased the risk of thermal runaway during incidents [4][6] Fast Charging Challenges - The rise of high-voltage fast charging technology has introduced new safety challenges, with increased power leading to higher demands on insulation and protection systems [7][9] - While fast charging improves user experience, it can also shorten battery lifespan and increase the risk of thermal runaway due to rapid lithium ion movement [9][10] Ongoing Safety Improvements - The industry is exploring solid-state batteries as a potential solution for combining high performance with safety, but significant challenges remain before widespread adoption [11] - Battery manufacturers are continuously optimizing liquid battery designs to enhance safety, such as improving cooling systems and battery management systems (BMS) [11][12] - Despite rigorous testing, the transition from laboratory conditions to real-world applications presents numerous variables that can affect battery safety [13][14] Industry Response to Incidents - Each fire incident serves as a critical warning for the industry, providing valuable data for technological improvements [14][15] - Leading battery manufacturers are striving to reduce failure rates to parts per billion (ppb) levels, although the perceived risk remains significant for individual users [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new market structure in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sector, highlighting the shift from the previously dominant "Wei Xiaoli" (Weilai, Xiaopeng, Li Auto) to a new group termed "BIG 6+1," which includes Tesla, Li Auto, Hongmeng Zhixing, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, NIO, and Zero Run. This shift indicates a significant change in market dynamics as these companies collectively approach or surpass the sales of leading brand BYD, marking the beginning of a new competitive phase in the EV market [4][18]. Market Dynamics - By August 2025, the total insurance registrations of the seven new force car companies approached or briefly exceeded that of BYD, indicating a potential shift in market leadership [4][6]. - The "BIG 6+1" collectively accounted for a market share of approximately 15.25% in August 2025, with BYD holding a share of 13.97% [17]. Definition of New Forces - The term "new forces" in the automotive industry lacks a precise definition, but a simple distinction can be made based on whether a company has the qualification to produce fuel vehicles. Companies without this qualification can only produce pure electric or extended-range products [5][6]. Sales Rankings - In the August 2025 sales rankings, the top seven new force companies were Tesla (57,152 units, 2.81%), Zero Run (51,162 units, 2.52%), Hongmeng Zhixing (40,012 units, 1.97%), Xiaomi (36,396 units, 1.79%), Xiaopeng (34,691 units, 1.71%), NIO (16,434 units, 0.81%), and Li Auto (28,529 units, 1.40%) [6][7]. Product Offerings - The "BIG 6+1" companies have a limited number of main models, with most brands offering around seven models. Tesla, while having many variants, primarily sells three main models [9][8]. - The average selling prices of the brands vary, with Tesla at 29.67 million yuan, Li Auto at 34.90 million yuan, and Zero Run at 12.98 million yuan, indicating a diverse pricing strategy among the new forces [13][15]. Distribution Channels - The distribution network of "BIG 6+1" varies, with Zero Run and Hongmeng Zhixing having the most stores (around 942 and approximately 1,000 respectively), while Tesla and Xiaomi have around 300-400 stores [11][12]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that as the "BIG 6+1" solidifies its market position, it will significantly impact the overall EV market, potentially leading to a new phase of competition and market consolidation [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as OmniVision Technologies (603501.CH), Q Technology (1478.HK), and NIO Inc. (9866.HK/NIO.US) as key tracking targets in their respective segments [5] - Additionally, it reiterates a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (9863.HK), Sunny Optical Technology (2382.HK), Horizon Robotics (9660.HK), and Yangjie Technology (300373.CH) as industry leaders [5] - The report also suggests investors pay attention to potential opportunities in companies like InHand Networks (1760.HK), Sijia Technology (580.HK), ZhiXing Technology (1274.HK), Youjia Innovation (2431.HK), Wingtech Technology (600745.CH), and CR Micro (688396.CH) [5] Core Insights - The technology industry is experiencing significant opportunities driven by technological innovation across various sectors, including consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, intelligent driving, and power semiconductors [2][3] - In the consumer electronics sector, there is a notable surge in demand for products like action cameras and panoramic cameras, which is expected to continue into the second half of the year and next year [2] - The new energy vehicle market is in a product explosion phase, with companies like NIO seeing demand growth driven by successful product definitions [2] - Intelligent driving technology is rapidly evolving, with significant opportunities for industry players as technology applications and product implementations progress [3] - The power semiconductor industry is witnessing a stabilization in competition, with some manufacturers experiencing price increases in certain product areas [3][5] Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - The report highlights a demand explosion in the consumer electronics sector, particularly for action and panoramic cameras, which is expected to provide substantial growth momentum for smartphone supply chain players [2] - Innovations in components such as high-pixel image sensors and periscope camera modules are anticipated to create growth opportunities even in a stable smartphone market [2] New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle companies are experiencing a demand surge, particularly with successful product definitions leading to a "supply-demand imbalance" phase, which is expected to enhance fundamentals and valuations [2] Intelligent Driving - The intelligent driving sector is characterized by rapid technological iterations, with significant opportunities for breakthroughs as industry players adopt new technologies [3] - The domestic chip manufacturer Horizon Robotics is seeing large-scale applications of its intelligent driving chips in automotive companies [3] Power Semiconductors - The power semiconductor industry is experiencing a reduction in traditional cyclical fluctuations, with some manufacturers reporting stability and potential price increases in specific product areas [3] - There remains substantial room for domestic substitution in the power semiconductor sector, with a stable competitive landscape [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly driven by technology and state-owned enterprise reforms [4]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from a bull market, with technology-driven segments like robotics and low-altitude economy likely to follow the lead of TMT [4]. - The report highlights the performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which saw a retail volume of 268,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 22.94% and a year-on-year increase of 4.69%, resulting in a penetration rate of 59.56% [4]. - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, and Xpeng, as well as component companies with strong growth potential [4]. Industry Situation Update - In the 37th week of 2025, the total retail volume of passenger cars reached 450,000 units, with traditional energy vehicles accounting for 182,000 units and new energy vehicles for 268,000 units [4]. - The report notes a decrease in raw material price indices for both traditional and new energy vehicles over the past week [4]. - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 922.739 billion yuan, with an industry index increase of 2.95% [4][12]. Market Situation Update - The automotive industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index, ranking 4th among primary industries in terms of weekly growth [12]. - A total of 151 stocks in the automotive sector rose, with the largest gainers being Junsheng Electronics, Shanzigao Technology, and Kaiter Co., which saw increases of 44.2%, 39.7%, and 33.8% respectively [18]. - Key events included the release of the national standard for intelligent assisted driving and the launch of NIO's new ES8 model [4][5][7]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: technology and state-owned enterprise reforms, recommending strong domestic manufacturers and component companies with robust performance growth [4]. - Specific recommendations include NIO, Ideal Auto, and companies involved in robotics and overseas expansion [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-quality blue-chip stocks that are still at the bottom of the market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting key companies such as Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi Group as potential investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards smart and electric vehicles, with significant growth expected in the intelligent driving and global expansion of quality domestic brands [11][12]. - The robot sector is poised for a major catalyst in Q4 2025, with Tesla's Optimus V3 expected to drive production and market interest [9][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the T-chain in the robotics industry, indicating a strong focus on hardware advancements and the ongoing process of domestic robot manufacturers moving towards IPOs [9][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - The automotive sector outperformed the market, with the A-share automotive sector rising by 3.9% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 2.9% [30]. Weekly Data - In the first week of September 2025, passenger car sales reached 368,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 29.8%. New energy vehicle sales were 221,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [3][41]. Key News - Chery Automobile has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, potentially marking the largest IPO of a car company in Hong Kong this year [10]. - NIO announced plans to issue 181.8 million Class A ordinary shares to fund research in core technologies for smart electric vehicles [10]. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the report recommends focusing on quality domestic brands that are accelerating in smart technology and global markets, specifically naming Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi Group [11]. - In the parts sector, it suggests investing in companies involved in intelligent driving and smart cockpits, as well as those in the new energy vehicle supply chain [12][13]. Robotics Sector - The report highlights the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus V3, which is expected to significantly increase production capacity and market presence [9][14]. - It also notes the importance of hardware advancements in the robotics sector, particularly in areas such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials [9][14]. Motorcycle Sector - The report indicates a rapid expansion in the large-displacement motorcycle market, with sales in July 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [21][22]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies in this segment, such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [22]. Heavy Truck Sector - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from expanded subsidies for replacing old vehicles, with July 2025 sales showing a year-on-year increase of 45.6% [24][25]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [25]. Tire Sector - The tire industry is experiencing growth driven by high demand and low valuations, with a focus on companies that are expanding their global presence [26][27]. - The report recommends companies like Sailun Tire and Senkiren for investment [27].